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The data behind the ratings

Sunday 2 August 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

ST Johnstone v Kilmarnock

scottish-prem · 13:00 UK

Finished 4–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	—	10
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,400	1,495
Matches on record, all seasons	561	561
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	12
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	2.6
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	0.6
Goals scored, last 10	0.7	1.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	2	4
Failed to score, last 10	5	2
Wins in a row	0	4
Unbeaten run	0	4
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	441	77
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.0	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	2.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.4	13.0
Shots on target, last 5	3.4	5.4
Shots per possession	0.239	0.266
On-target shots per possession	0.065	0.094
Inside-box shots per possession	0.144	0.163
Share of shots from inside the box	54.9%	59.4%
Expected goals, last 5	—	1.83
Possession, last 5	59.0%	48.4%
Corners, last 5	5.2	4.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.299	0.216
On-target allowed per possession	0.095	0.078
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.180	0.147
Opponents' inside-box share	61.0%	69.3%
Save rate	69.8%	71.1%
Saves, last 5	2.0	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	—	0.84
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.8%	79.8%
Passes, last 5	426	432
Fouls, last 5	12.0	12.6
Cards, last 5	1.8	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	44
Home side won	20
Drawn	8
Away side won	16
Goals, home side	45
Goals, away side	47

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 42.9% · Draw 27.6% · Away 29.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Hibernian v Motherwell

scottish-prem · 15:30 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	5	4
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,601	1,585
Matches on record, all seasons	483	597
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	4	2
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	78	78
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.0	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.8
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	7.4	12.0
Shots on target, last 5	2.2	4.0
Shots per possession	0.208	0.232
On-target shots per possession	0.066	0.081
Inside-box shots per possession	0.139	0.135
Share of shots from inside the box	65.0%	57.5%
Expected goals, last 5	0.84	0.87
Possession, last 5	30.4%	49.2%
Corners, last 5	3.0	4.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.246	0.261
On-target allowed per possession	0.074	0.084
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.137	0.183
Opponents' inside-box share	55.2%	70.3%
Save rate	72.1%	53.7%
Saves, last 5	4.0	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.52	1.45
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	60.6%	80.4%
Passes, last 5	234	428
Fouls, last 5	10.8	10.8
Cards, last 5	3.8	3.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	41
Home side won	15
Drawn	11
Away side won	15
Goals, home side	59
Goals, away side	53

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 44.3% · Draw 28.4% · Away 27.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Celtic v Dundee

scottish-prem · 18:30 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	1	8
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,793	1,477
Matches on record, all seasons	595	384
Recent form
Points, last 5	15	9
Goals scored, last 5	2.8	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	2.2	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	2
Wins in a row	7	1
Unbeaten run	7	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	79	78
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.6	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.8	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.8	10.8
Shots on target, last 5	5.0	4.2
Shots per possession	0.233	0.208
On-target shots per possession	0.085	0.074
Inside-box shots per possession	0.132	0.145
Share of shots from inside the box	57.7%	69.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.84	1.12
Possession, last 5	61.2%	47.8%
Corners, last 5	7.0	5.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.279	0.288
On-target allowed per possession	0.086	0.112
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.181	0.165
Opponents' inside-box share	69.6%	55.0%
Save rate	68.0%	69.6%
Saves, last 5	1.6	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.85	1.79
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	83.0%	74.0%
Passes, last 5	521	368
Fouls, last 5	15.4	10.2
Cards, last 5	4.0	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	26
Drawn	5
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	84
Goals, away side	17

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 80.4% · Draw 12.0% · Away 7.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Cambuur v Excelsior

eredivisie · 18:00 UK

Finished 0–4. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	—	13
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,359	1,493
Matches on record, all seasons	172	350
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	11
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	2.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	0.7	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	2.2	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	1	1
Failed to score, last 10	6	2
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	1	5
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	448	82
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.8	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	2.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.8
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	18.8	15.2
Shots on target, last 5	5.4	5.4
Shots per possession	0.255	0.296
On-target shots per possession	0.065	0.100
Inside-box shots per possession	0.161	0.195
Share of shots from inside the box	62.6%	64.6%
Expected goals, last 5	—	1.70
Possession, last 5	57.4%	53.6%
Corners, last 5	8.2	4.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.306	0.250
On-target allowed per possession	0.123	0.090
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.190	0.171
Opponents' inside-box share	63.0%	68.4%
Save rate	62.9%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	3.0	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	—	1.32
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.2%	79.6%
Passes, last 5	442	447
Fouls, last 5	13.6	12.0
Cards, last 5	2.4	0.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	1
Drawn	2
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	7
Goals, away side	11

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 37.5% · Draw 27.7% · Away 34.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Estoril v Famalicao

primeira-liga · 19:15 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	10	5
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,557	1,659
Matches on record, all seasons	366	238
Recent form
Points, last 5	2	9
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	0.8	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	0.8
Clean sheets, last 10	2	5
Failed to score, last 10	3	1
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	12
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	83	83
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	0.6	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.8	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.0	10.6
Shots on target, last 5	3.2	4.0
Shots per possession	0.195	0.228
On-target shots per possession	0.055	0.090
Inside-box shots per possession	0.115	0.154
Share of shots from inside the box	58.9%	68.4%
Expected goals, last 5	0.86	1.12
Possession, last 5	53.6%	48.6%
Corners, last 5	4.0	5.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.268	0.163
On-target allowed per possession	0.097	0.065
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.171	0.099
Opponents' inside-box share	65.8%	61.1%
Save rate	64.1%	71.9%
Saves, last 5	2.6	1.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.56	0.90
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	83.6%	83.6%
Passes, last 5	476	397
Fouls, last 5	13.0	12.0
Cards, last 5	2.0	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	3
Drawn	2
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	9
Goals, away side	16

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 31.1% · Draw 29.6% · Away 39.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Dundee v Aberdeen

scottish-prem · 14:00 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	8	2
Position last season	8	9
Points this season	0	3
Goal difference this season	-1	+1
Elo rating going in	1,475	1,488
Matches on record, all seasons	385	598
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	3	2
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	5	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.0	10.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	2.6
Shots per possession	0.212	0.210
On-target shots per possession	0.076	0.055
Inside-box shots per possession	0.144	0.136
Share of shots from inside the box	68.5%	65.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.04	1.39
Possession, last 5	44.4%	50.8%
Corners, last 5	5.0	3.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.285	0.214
On-target allowed per possession	0.105	0.073
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.170	0.136
Opponents' inside-box share	57.4%	61.0%
Save rate	67.6%	63.9%
Saves, last 5	3.4	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.87	1.32
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	76.0%	73.2%
Passes, last 5	380	408
Fouls, last 5	10.2	12.0
Cards, last 5	1.2	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	34
Home side won	4
Drawn	7
Away side won	23
Goals, home side	29
Goals, away side	71

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 34.7% · Draw 28.2% · Away 37.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

ST Mirren v ST Johnstone

scottish-prem · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	2
Position last season	11	—
Points this season	3	3
Goal difference this season	+2	+1
Elo rating going in	1,480	1,411
Matches on record, all seasons	486	562
Recent form
Points, last 5	11	6
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	0.4	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	0.9	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	4	2
Failed to score, last 10	4	5
Wins in a row	2	1
Unbeaten run	5	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.7	15.2
Shots on target, last 5	6.0	3.6
Shots per possession	0.235	0.249
On-target shots per possession	0.086	0.069
Inside-box shots per possession	0.154	0.151
Share of shots from inside the box	65.3%	55.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.37	1.76
Possession, last 5	44.3%	59.2%
Corners, last 5	6.0	4.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.165	0.281
On-target allowed per possession	0.055	0.094
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.105	0.167
Opponents' inside-box share	62.2%	61.7%
Save rate	69.2%	68.2%
Saves, last 5	1.3	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.53	0.79
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	75.3%	80.6%
Passes, last 5	390	447
Fouls, last 5	13.0	9.8
Cards, last 5	1.8	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	38
Home side won	11
Drawn	10
Away side won	17
Goals, home side	35
Goals, away side	42

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 40.0% · Draw 29.4% · Away 30.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Maritimo v Casa Pia

primeira-liga · 14:30 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	—	16
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,471	1,538
Matches on record, all seasons	428	138
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	8
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	0.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	0.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	0.9
Clean sheets, last 10	1	4
Failed to score, last 10	1	4
Wins in a row	1	1
Unbeaten run	1	4
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	1,154	72
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.8	0.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.2	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.4	10.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	4.6
Shots per possession	0.304	0.287
On-target shots per possession	0.104	0.100
Inside-box shots per possession	0.186	0.190
Share of shots from inside the box	64.9%	66.0%
Expected goals, last 5	—	1.22
Possession, last 5	52.6%	39.4%
Corners, last 5	5.2	5.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.259	0.185
On-target allowed per possession	0.077	0.049
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.172	0.109
Opponents' inside-box share	63.1%	55.8%
Save rate	59.1%	75.4%
Saves, last 5	1.8	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	—	0.91
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	79.0%	69.6%
Passes, last 5	435	274
Fouls, last 5	16.2	16.8
Cards, last 5	5.0	4.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	0
Drawn	0
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	1
Goals, away side	4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 42.8% · Draw 30.0% · Away 27.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

NEC Nijmegen v Telstar

eredivisie · 14:30 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	3	14
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,623	1,557
Matches on record, all seasons	381	40
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	2.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.8	2.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	0	2
Wins in a row	1	2
Unbeaten run	1	4
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	83	83
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.0	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	2.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	21.0	10.6
Shots on target, last 5	6.4	4.8
Shots per possession	0.371	0.268
On-target shots per possession	0.128	0.122
Inside-box shots per possession	0.232	0.199
Share of shots from inside the box	61.4%	73.4%
Expected goals, last 5	2.31	1.41
Possession, last 5	57.6%	46.2%
Corners, last 5	8.2	3.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.239	0.312
On-target allowed per possession	0.124	0.118
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.165	0.213
Opponents' inside-box share	71.6%	68.4%
Save rate	73.5%	71.7%
Saves, last 5	3.8	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.21	1.45
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	79.6%	74.2%
Passes, last 5	412	337
Fouls, last 5	13.4	12.0
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	0
Drawn	2
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	3
Goals, away side	3

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 64.6% · Draw 19.5% · Away 15.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

GO Ahead Eagles v Willem II

eredivisie · 16:45 UK

Finished 4–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	12	—
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,546	1,400
Matches on record, all seasons	274	372
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	5
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	5	0
Failed to score, last 10	3	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	2	1
Days since last match	83	433
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.0	14.6
Shots on target, last 5	3.2	5.2
Shots per possession	0.235	0.244
On-target shots per possession	0.097	0.083
Inside-box shots per possession	0.169	0.159
Share of shots from inside the box	74.1%	61.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.14	1.64
Possession, last 5	46.4%	49.8%
Corners, last 5	6.0	6.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.424	0.299
On-target allowed per possession	0.114	0.093
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.275	0.219
Opponents' inside-box share	65.0%	73.1%
Save rate	75.8%	67.2%
Saves, last 5	5.2	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.37	2.72
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	78.0%	75.6%
Passes, last 5	361	397
Fouls, last 5	8.2	13.0
Cards, last 5	2.0	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	4
Drawn	0
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	7
Goals, away side	6

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 60.9% · Draw 22.3% · Away 16.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Guimaraes v Arouca

primeira-liga · 17:00 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	8	9
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,598	1,581
Matches on record, all seasons	528	304
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	10
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	4	2
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	0	3
Losses in a row	3	0
Days since last match	84	84
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.6	12.6
Shots on target, last 5	3.4	4.2
Shots per possession	0.238	0.246
On-target shots per possession	0.078	0.078
Inside-box shots per possession	0.130	0.148
Share of shots from inside the box	55.3%	58.2%
Expected goals, last 5	0.96	1.13
Possession, last 5	57.6%	54.6%
Corners, last 5	5.0	3.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.227	0.235
On-target allowed per possession	0.102	0.070
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.147	0.151
Opponents' inside-box share	65.6%	62.0%
Save rate	66.7%	64.9%
Saves, last 5	4.0	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.57	1.11
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.4%	85.0%
Passes, last 5	440	460
Fouls, last 5	12.0	14.2
Cards, last 5	2.6	3.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	18
Home side won	8
Drawn	6
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	29
Goals, away side	25

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 49.7% · Draw 26.3% · Away 24.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

PSV Eindhoven v Fortuna Sittard

eredivisie · 18:00 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	1	11
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,849	1,503
Matches on record, all seasons	536	264
Recent form
Points, last 5	13	4
Goals scored, last 5	3.8	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	3.1	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	2.0
Clean sheets, last 10	1	0
Failed to score, last 10	0	2
Wins in a row	2	0
Unbeaten run	6	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	83	83
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	3.8	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.8	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.8
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.8	11.6
Shots on target, last 5	7.0	3.6
Shots per possession	0.284	0.291
On-target shots per possession	0.132	0.108
Inside-box shots per possession	0.201	0.181
Share of shots from inside the box	70.0%	62.7%
Expected goals, last 5	2.05	0.92
Possession, last 5	58.2%	44.0%
Corners, last 5	5.6	3.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.324	0.258
On-target allowed per possession	0.130	0.100
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.222	0.178
Opponents' inside-box share	66.9%	67.9%
Save rate	68.6%	60.4%
Saves, last 5	3.4	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.09	1.94
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	87.0%	76.8%
Passes, last 5	524	364
Fouls, last 5	10.0	9.6
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	15
Home side won	13
Drawn	2
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	48
Goals, away side	13

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 81.8% · Draw 10.9% · Away 7.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

AZ Alkmaar v ADO Den Haag

eredivisie · 19:00 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	7	—
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,638	1,428
Matches on record, all seasons	549	384
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	1
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	2.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	2.3
Clean sheets, last 10	4	0
Failed to score, last 10	3	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	6	0
Losses in a row	0	4
Days since last match	83	448
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.8	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.0	2.0
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	18.6	14.2
Shots on target, last 5	6.2	3.8
Shots per possession	0.305	0.271
On-target shots per possession	0.117	0.085
Inside-box shots per possession	0.201	0.178
Share of shots from inside the box	65.2%	63.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.53	—
Possession, last 5	56.2%	50.8%
Corners, last 5	6.0	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.252	0.259
On-target allowed per possession	0.096	0.107
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.162	0.165
Opponents' inside-box share	64.0%	63.5%
Save rate	71.8%	59.0%
Saves, last 5	3.6	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.13	—
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.4%	74.0%
Passes, last 5	490	366
Fouls, last 5	9.4	15.0
Cards, last 5	0.6	3.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	22
Home side won	16
Drawn	3
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	50
Goals, away side	17

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 68.9% · Draw 17.9% · Away 13.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Estrela v Sporting CP

primeira-liga · 19:30 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	15	2
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,490	1,906
Matches on record, all seasons	104	528
Recent form
Points, last 5	2	11
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	3.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	2.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	4	0
Wins in a row	0	3
Unbeaten run	2	5
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	84	84
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	3.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.2	16.2
Shots on target, last 5	2.8	6.6
Shots per possession	0.248	0.268
On-target shots per possession	0.083	0.105
Inside-box shots per possession	0.159	0.177
Share of shots from inside the box	63.9%	65.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.33	2.50
Possession, last 5	39.0%	63.4%
Corners, last 5	2.2	5.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.248	0.297
On-target allowed per possession	0.073	0.096
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.137	0.175
Opponents' inside-box share	53.6%	59.2%
Save rate	64.5%	69.8%
Saves, last 5	2.4	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.80	0.98
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	75.8%	89.0%
Passes, last 5	313	582
Fouls, last 5	13.8	10.2
Cards, last 5	3.4	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	0
Drawn	0
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	4
Goals, away side	18

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 8.1% · Draw 15.0% · Away 76.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Heart Of Midlothian v Dundee Utd

scottish-prem · 14:00 UK

Finished 4–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	5	1
Position last season	2	7
Points this season	0	1
Goal difference this season	-1	+0
Elo rating going in	1,663	1,508
Matches on record, all seasons	521	417
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	3
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	0.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	1	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	3
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	8	9
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.0	11.6
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	3.4
Shots per possession	0.275	0.342
On-target shots per possession	0.085	0.119
Inside-box shots per possession	0.180	0.233
Share of shots from inside the box	66.0%	68.6%
Expected goals, last 5	0.95	1.13
Possession, last 5	48.8%	50.2%
Corners, last 5	5.0	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.224	0.263
On-target allowed per possession	0.055	0.104
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.134	0.180
Opponents' inside-box share	59.5%	69.1%
Save rate	61.5%	70.2%
Saves, last 5	1.4	4.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.41	1.42
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	70.2%	76.4%
Passes, last 5	357	397
Fouls, last 5	10.8	13.2
Cards, last 5	2.2	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	29
Home side won	13
Drawn	6
Away side won	10
Goals, home side	47
Goals, away side	39

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 57.0% · Draw 22.7% · Away 20.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Motherwell v Falkirk

scottish-prem · 14:00 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	4
Position last season	4	6
Points this season	3	0
Goal difference this season	+1	-2
Elo rating going in	1,598	1,516
Matches on record, all seasons	598	39
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	3
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	2.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	2.7
Clean sheets, last 10	2	1
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	2	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	4
Days since last match	7	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	3.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.0	9.6
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	2.2
Shots per possession	0.218	0.194
On-target shots per possession	0.077	0.056
Inside-box shots per possession	0.133	0.131
Share of shots from inside the box	59.8%	67.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.16	1.13
Possession, last 5	49.8%	52.6%
Corners, last 5	3.4	5.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.273	0.282
On-target allowed per possession	0.091	0.111
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.185	0.181
Opponents' inside-box share	68.3%	62.7%
Save rate	55.0%	57.1%
Saves, last 5	2.0	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.39	1.41
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	82.0%	78.0%
Passes, last 5	445	399
Fouls, last 5	11.4	13.6
Cards, last 5	3.4	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	0
Drawn	1
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	3
Goals, away side	6

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 52.7% · Draw 24.8% · Away 22.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.