The data behind the ratings

Monday 10 August 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

Santa Clara v Nacional

primeira-liga · 19:15 UK
Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position——
Position last season1214
Points this season——
Goal difference this season——
Elo rating going in1,5631,482
Matches on record, all seasons238358
Recent form
Points, last 589
Goals scored, last 51.21.2
Goals conceded, last 50.80.8
Goals scored, last 101.20.9
Goals conceded, last 101.00.9
Clean sheets, last 1054
Failed to score, last 1034
Wins in a row01
Unbeaten run01
Losses in a row10
Days since last match8686
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there—0.6
Scored away, last 5 there1.0—
Conceded away, last 5 there1.4—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 510.813.8
Shots on target, last 52.04.4
Shots per possession0.2210.271
On-target shots per possession0.0620.098
Inside-box shots per possession0.1270.145
Share of shots from inside the box56.2%52.1%
Expected goals, last 51.291.13
Possession, last 548.2%50.0%
Corners, last 55.05.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.2020.289
On-target allowed per possession0.0670.068
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1150.189
Opponents' inside-box share56.3%67.6%
Save rate72.6%75.8%
Saves, last 52.83.0
Expected goals conceded, last 50.731.25
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy80.0%76.0%
Passes, last 5353356
Fouls, last 510.814.2
Cards, last 52.02.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record8
Home side won6
Drawn1
Away side won1
Goals, home side19
Goals, away side7
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 49.3% · Draw 30.5% · Away 20.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.