Latest · All reports · The data behind it · This day's report

The data behind the ratings

Sunday 16 August 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

ADO Den Haag v Groningen

eredivisie · 10:15 UK

Finished 1–4. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	8	5
Position last season	—	9
Points this season	0	3
Goal difference this season	-2	+1
Elo rating going in	1,424	1,532
Matches on record, all seasons	385	521
Recent form
Points, last 5	0	9
Goals scored, last 5	0.4	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	2.8	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	2.4	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	0	3
Failed to score, last 10	3	2
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	5	0
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.4	12.0
Shots on target, last 5	3.2	4.6
Shots per possession	0.271	0.293
On-target shots per possession	0.077	0.102
Inside-box shots per possession	0.182	0.184
Share of shots from inside the box	64.6%	62.0%
Expected goals, last 5	0.95	1.06
Possession, last 5	52.6%	50.0%
Corners, last 5	5.0	4.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.244	0.268
On-target allowed per possession	0.100	0.099
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.158	0.183
Opponents' inside-box share	65.1%	67.9%
Save rate	57.3%	70.1%
Saves, last 5	1.4	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.67	1.64
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	78.4%	76.6%
Passes, last 5	394	391
Fouls, last 5	15.4	11.0
Cards, last 5	2.2	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	23
Home side won	7
Drawn	3
Away side won	13
Goals, home side	31
Goals, away side	40

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 34.8% · Draw 26.3% · Away 38.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Feyenoord v GO Ahead Eagles

eredivisie · 12:30 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	2
Position last season	2	12
Points this season	3	3
Goal difference this season	+1	+3
Elo rating going in	1,743	1,551
Matches on record, all seasons	540	275
Recent form
Points, last 5	13	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	0.6	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	2.0
Goals conceded, last 10	0.9	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	3	4
Failed to score, last 10	1	3
Wins in a row	2	1
Unbeaten run	10	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	3.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.6	13.0
Shots on target, last 5	6.0	4.8
Shots per possession	0.307	0.247
On-target shots per possession	0.116	0.109
Inside-box shots per possession	0.223	0.175
Share of shots from inside the box	73.2%	72.5%
Expected goals, last 5	2.72	1.52
Possession, last 5	50.0%	51.0%
Corners, last 5	8.0	6.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.211	0.433
On-target allowed per possession	0.052	0.106
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.149	0.278
Opponents' inside-box share	67.6%	64.3%
Save rate	68.9%	72.5%
Saves, last 5	1.4	4.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.01	2.30
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	83.0%	81.2%
Passes, last 5	420	398
Fouls, last 5	10.4	8.4
Cards, last 5	1.0	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	16
Home side won	12
Drawn	1
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	45
Goals, away side	14

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 70.8% · Draw 16.4% · Away 12.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Twente v PEC Zwolle

eredivisie · 12:30 UK

Finished 3–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	11	13
Position last season	4	15
Points this season	0	0
Goal difference this season	-1	-2
Elo rating going in	1,662	1,496
Matches on record, all seasons	515	439
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	3
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	2.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.8	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	2.3
Clean sheets, last 10	1	1
Failed to score, last 10	2	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	2	3
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.0	7.4
Shots on target, last 5	6.4	3.0
Shots per possession	0.302	0.230
On-target shots per possession	0.112	0.078
Inside-box shots per possession	0.212	0.143
Share of shots from inside the box	68.5%	60.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.76	0.71
Possession, last 5	50.0%	42.6%
Corners, last 5	6.4	3.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.253	0.326
On-target allowed per possession	0.104	0.121
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.153	0.204
Opponents' inside-box share	60.4%	63.3%
Save rate	67.2%	64.7%
Saves, last 5	2.6	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.40	1.91
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	78.8%	78.2%
Passes, last 5	435	365
Fouls, last 5	7.8	11.2
Cards, last 5	0.6	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	23
Home side won	11
Drawn	8
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	38
Goals, away side	25

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 76.4% · Draw 14.2% · Away 9.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Watford v Southampton

championship · 12:30 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	16	4
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,459	1,616
Matches on record, all seasons	645	599
Recent form
Points, last 5	0	9
Goals scored, last 5	0.2	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	3.2	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	0.7	2.3
Goals conceded, last 10	2.3	0.9
Clean sheets, last 10	1	3
Failed to score, last 10	5	1
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	21
Losses in a row	5	0
Days since last match	106	96
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	0.8	2.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.6	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.8	14.4
Shots on target, last 5	3.2	4.0
Shots per possession	0.253	0.281
On-target shots per possession	0.080	0.097
Inside-box shots per possession	0.152	0.195
Share of shots from inside the box	56.5%	70.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.05	1.59
Possession, last 5	50.0%	51.0%
Corners, last 5	3.8	5.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.315	0.287
On-target allowed per possession	0.133	0.087
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.196	0.180
Opponents' inside-box share	63.4%	61.9%
Save rate	64.7%	74.5%
Saves, last 5	3.4	4.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.57	1.47
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.0%	81.6%
Passes, last 5	401	455
Fouls, last 5	12.6	13.0
Cards, last 5	2.2	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	18
Home side won	2
Drawn	7
Away side won	9
Goals, home side	19
Goals, away side	32

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 26.5% · Draw 26.8% · Away 46.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Nacional v Estoril

primeira-liga · 14:30 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	5	1
Position last season	14	10
Points this season	1	1
Goal difference this season	+0	+0
Elo rating going in	1,486	1,558
Matches on record, all seasons	359	367
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	3
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	0.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	4	1
Failed to score, last 10	4	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	2	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	6	9
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.8	12.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	3.6
Shots per possession	0.255	0.209
On-target shots per possession	0.093	0.060
Inside-box shots per possession	0.136	0.132
Share of shots from inside the box	53.1%	63.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.17	0.99
Possession, last 5	49.6%	52.2%
Corners, last 5	5.4	5.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.310	0.255
On-target allowed per possession	0.077	0.095
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.194	0.171
Opponents' inside-box share	63.4%	69.1%
Save rate	74.5%	61.0%
Saves, last 5	3.0	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.44	1.68
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	75.8%	84.4%
Passes, last 5	349	455
Fouls, last 5	14.0	13.0
Cards, last 5	2.8	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	14
Home side won	4
Drawn	4
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	15
Goals, away side	19

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 33.1% · Draw 29.3% · Away 37.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Ajax v Heerenveen

eredivisie · 14:45 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	5
Position last season	5	8
Points this season	3	3
Goal difference this season	+2	+1
Elo rating going in	1,704	1,582
Matches on record, all seasons	538	555
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	0.4	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	0.7	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	6	4
Failed to score, last 10	2	3
Wins in a row	1	1
Unbeaten run	4	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	20.0	12.0
Shots on target, last 5	6.2	4.2
Shots per possession	0.273	0.244
On-target shots per possession	0.092	0.104
Inside-box shots per possession	0.152	0.175
Share of shots from inside the box	55.5%	72.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.68	1.18
Possession, last 5	61.0%	52.2%
Corners, last 5	6.4	5.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.284	0.386
On-target allowed per possession	0.088	0.132
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.180	0.242
Opponents' inside-box share	63.0%	62.9%
Save rate	68.9%	77.9%
Saves, last 5	2.8	4.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.83	1.80
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	86.0%	81.2%
Passes, last 5	594	474
Fouls, last 5	11.2	9.8
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	25
Drawn	6
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	101
Goals, away side	30

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 65.6% · Draw 19.1% · Away 15.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Burnley v West Ham

championship · 15:00 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	19	18
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,591	1,665
Matches on record, all seasons	618	619
Recent form
Points, last 5	2	6
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	0.6	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.9	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	1	4
Failed to score, last 10	5	4
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	1	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	84	84
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	0.6	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.2	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.8	12.6
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	5.4
Shots per possession	0.222	0.253
On-target shots per possession	0.075	0.100
Inside-box shots per possession	0.136	0.191
Share of shots from inside the box	61.4%	77.7%
Expected goals, last 5	0.83	1.36
Possession, last 5	46.2%	43.8%
Corners, last 5	3.0	4.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.329	0.258
On-target allowed per possession	0.104	0.078
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.219	0.164
Opponents' inside-box share	67.1%	64.0%
Save rate	64.9%	70.3%
Saves, last 5	4.6	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.96	1.64
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.6%	76.4%
Passes, last 5	406	346
Fouls, last 5	13.2	11.4
Cards, last 5	1.8	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	20
Home side won	5
Drawn	5
Away side won	10
Goals, home side	25
Goals, away side	28

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 29.3% · Draw 27.3% · Away 43.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Eibar v Tenerife

laliga-2 · 15:00 UK

Finished 1–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	8	—
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,512	1,384
Matches on record, all seasons	482	386
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	2
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	0.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	0.7
Goals conceded, last 10	0.9	0.8
Clean sheets, last 10	6	3
Failed to score, last 10	1	6
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	3
Days since last match	77	441
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	0.8
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	1.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.2	9.4
Shots on target, last 5	2.8	2.2
Shots per possession	0.232	0.212
On-target shots per possession	0.073	0.051
Inside-box shots per possession	0.164	0.142
Share of shots from inside the box	70.9%	65.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.31	—
Possession, last 5	44.0%	54.4%
Corners, last 5	3.6	3.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.264	0.178
On-target allowed per possession	0.071	0.053
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.150	0.124
Opponents' inside-box share	55.0%	68.2%
Save rate	74.0%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	3.8	1.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.44	—
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.0%	82.0%
Passes, last 5	376	427
Fouls, last 5	9.6	15.6
Cards, last 5	2.4	3.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	6
Drawn	1
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	12
Goals, away side	4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 48.0% · Draw 29.3% · Away 22.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Racing Santander v Villarreal

la-liga · 15:00 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	1	3
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,556	1,727
Matches on record, all seasons	288	570
Recent form
Points, last 5	13	7
Goals scored, last 5	3.0	2.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	2.8	2.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	1	0
Failed to score, last 10	1	2
Wins in a row	1	1
Unbeaten run	8	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	77	84
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	4.0	3.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.2	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	18.2	11.6
Shots on target, last 5	8.8	4.8
Shots per possession	0.322	0.270
On-target shots per possession	0.158	0.107
Inside-box shots per possession	0.225	0.194
Share of shots from inside the box	69.8%	69.2%
Expected goals, last 5	2.31	1.55
Possession, last 5	51.8%	51.0%
Corners, last 5	6.2	6.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.260	0.246
On-target allowed per possession	0.075	0.087
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.183	0.146
Opponents' inside-box share	72.1%	61.1%
Save rate	61.5%	72.2%
Saves, last 5	2.4	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.42	1.20
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	82.4%	85.8%
Passes, last 5	437	474
Fouls, last 5	14.2	10.2
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	1
Drawn	2
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	4
Goals, away side	5

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 26.7% · Draw 26.6% · Away 46.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Başakşehir v Kocaelispor

super-lig · 16:00 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	5	11
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,699	1,574
Matches on record, all seasons	500	34
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	2
Goals scored, last 5	2.2	0.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	0.5
Goals conceded, last 10	0.9	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	5	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	5
Wins in a row	2	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	2
Days since last match	92	91
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	0.4
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	1.8
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.8	9.6
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	1.2
Shots per possession	0.274	0.184
On-target shots per possession	0.096	0.040
Inside-box shots per possession	0.208	0.126
Share of shots from inside the box	78.7%	68.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.88	0.95
Possession, last 5	50.6%	59.4%
Corners, last 5	4.2	4.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.274	0.236
On-target allowed per possession	0.090	0.081
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.168	0.121
Opponents' inside-box share	61.0%	49.8%
Save rate	73.7%	67.3%
Saves, last 5	2.8	2.5
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.90	0.85
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.0%	82.2%
Passes, last 5	416	430
Fouls, last 5	12.4	14.8
Cards, last 5	2.2	3.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	1
Drawn	1
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	1
Goals, away side	0

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 58.4% · Draw 25.4% · Away 16.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Arouca v Moreirense

primeira-liga · 17:00 UK

Finished 4–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	5
Position last season	9	7
Points this season	3	1
Goal difference this season	+1	+0
Elo rating going in	1,593	1,563
Matches on record, all seasons	305	407
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	5
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	0.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	5
Wins in a row	3	0
Unbeaten run	4	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.2	10.4
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	3.6
Shots per possession	0.233	0.179
On-target shots per possession	0.074	0.061
Inside-box shots per possession	0.142	0.092
Share of shots from inside the box	59.7%	50.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.03	0.83
Possession, last 5	53.0%	53.8%
Corners, last 5	3.4	4.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.254	0.246
On-target allowed per possession	0.064	0.083
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.164	0.170
Opponents' inside-box share	62.0%	71.5%
Save rate	64.8%	62.6%
Saves, last 5	2.0	1.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.30	1.82
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	83.6%	83.2%
Passes, last 5	461	469
Fouls, last 5	12.6	13.2
Cards, last 5	4.0	3.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	14
Home side won	4
Drawn	2
Away side won	8
Goals, home side	15
Goals, away side	18

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 48.5% · Draw 28.7% · Away 22.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Burgos v Cordoba

laliga-2 · 17:00 UK

Finished 3–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	7	10
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,523	1,453
Matches on record, all seasons	210	248
Recent form
Points, last 5	11	7
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	0.0	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	0.7	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	6	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	3	0
Unbeaten run	6	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	77	77
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	0.8	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.4	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.0	20.8
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	6.0
Shots per possession	0.234	0.306
On-target shots per possession	0.086	0.095
Inside-box shots per possession	0.168	0.187
Share of shots from inside the box	69.6%	59.5%
Expected goals, last 5	—	2.53
Possession, last 5	41.6%	59.2%
Corners, last 5	3.8	8.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.209	0.288
On-target allowed per possession	0.050	0.101
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.109	0.190
Opponents' inside-box share	52.2%	64.3%
Save rate	72.2%	72.9%
Saves, last 5	3.0	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	—	1.20
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	77.2%	84.4%
Passes, last 5	320	450
Fouls, last 5	10.8	16.2
Cards, last 5	2.2	3.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	2
Drawn	1
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	9
Goals, away side	6

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 41.5% · Draw 30.2% · Away 28.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Espanyol v Levante

la-liga · 17:00 UK

Finished 3–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	11	18
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,564	1,584
Matches on record, all seasons	620	628
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	9
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	0.8	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	3	4
Failed to score, last 10	4	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	3	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	85	85
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.0	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	2.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.6	18.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	6.2
Shots per possession	0.297	0.345
On-target shots per possession	0.091	0.120
Inside-box shots per possession	0.190	0.208
Share of shots from inside the box	62.6%	58.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.16	2.04
Possession, last 5	42.6%	44.4%
Corners, last 5	4.8	6.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.269	0.202
On-target allowed per possession	0.103	0.072
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.189	0.116
Opponents' inside-box share	70.2%	56.7%
Save rate	70.1%	65.6%
Saves, last 5	3.8	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.48	1.40
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	73.8%	83.0%
Passes, last 5	337	392
Fouls, last 5	13.8	9.2
Cards, last 5	2.2	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	24
Home side won	8
Drawn	9
Away side won	7
Goals, home side	33
Goals, away side	34

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 45.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 25.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Girona v Leganes

laliga-2 · 17:00 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	19	16
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,575	1,427
Matches on record, all seasons	408	402
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	4
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	0.8	0.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	4
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	1	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	85	77
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.0	0.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.2	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.4	11.2
Shots on target, last 5	6.2	3.8
Shots per possession	0.240	0.249
On-target shots per possession	0.078	0.087
Inside-box shots per possession	0.150	0.151
Share of shots from inside the box	65.9%	61.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.51	1.04
Possession, last 5	53.8%	49.6%
Corners, last 5	5.2	4.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.254	0.276
On-target allowed per possession	0.089	0.105
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.180	0.171
Opponents' inside-box share	72.4%	62.2%
Save rate	67.7%	67.1%
Saves, last 5	2.2	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.95	1.50
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	85.2%	80.6%
Passes, last 5	462	364
Fouls, last 5	11.8	15.0
Cards, last 5	2.2	3.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	5
Drawn	4
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	15
Goals, away side	7

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 60.6% · Draw 23.5% · Away 16.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Beşiktaş v Eyüpspor

super-lig · 18:30 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	4	15
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,711	1,572
Matches on record, all seasons	534	70
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	11
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	2.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	1	5
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	93	91
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	1.2
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	1.8
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	18.0	9.6
Shots on target, last 5	5.8	4.4
Shots per possession	0.319	0.214
On-target shots per possession	0.106	0.073
Inside-box shots per possession	0.196	0.104
Share of shots from inside the box	60.8%	49.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.79	0.97
Possession, last 5	60.2%	39.4%
Corners, last 5	4.6	3.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.321	0.240
On-target allowed per possession	0.105	0.073
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.183	0.159
Opponents' inside-box share	55.5%	66.3%
Save rate	70.4%	66.1%
Saves, last 5	3.4	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.39	1.15
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	87.8%	77.8%
Passes, last 5	544	324
Fouls, last 5	10.8	12.4
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	3
Drawn	1
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	9
Goals, away side	5

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 67.7% · Draw 19.1% · Away 13.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Famalicao v Maritimo

primeira-liga · 19:30 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	1
Position last season	5	—
Points this season	1	3
Goal difference this season	+0	+1
Elo rating going in	1,658	1,481
Matches on record, all seasons	239	429
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	9
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	0.6	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	0.9	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	4	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	0
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	13	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	9	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.6	18.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	5.0
Shots per possession	0.218	0.315
On-target shots per possession	0.083	0.102
Inside-box shots per possession	0.147	0.201
Share of shots from inside the box	68.4%	67.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.31	1.25
Possession, last 5	52.4%	55.8%
Corners, last 5	6.4	5.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.169	0.252
On-target allowed per possession	0.062	0.080
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.106	0.168
Opponents' inside-box share	62.3%	63.4%
Save rate	69.4%	62.2%
Saves, last 5	1.4	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.78	0.61
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.4%	82.0%
Passes, last 5	416	455
Fouls, last 5	12.4	17.6
Cards, last 5	1.6	4.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	4
Drawn	4
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	14
Goals, away side	7

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 54.6% · Draw 27.0% · Away 18.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Las Palmas v Albacete

laliga-2 · 19:30 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	5	11
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,524	1,478
Matches on record, all seasons	446	340
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	12
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	1	1
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	67	78
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	1.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	1.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.0	12.8
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	5.0
Shots per possession	0.219	0.328
On-target shots per possession	0.076	0.118
Inside-box shots per possession	0.123	0.213
Share of shots from inside the box	56.4%	62.1%
Expected goals, last 5	—	1.11
Possession, last 5	53.6%	32.2%
Corners, last 5	4.0	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.254	0.256
On-target allowed per possession	0.082	0.087
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.180	0.152
Opponents' inside-box share	71.0%	59.1%
Save rate	66.1%	72.8%
Saves, last 5	2.6	5.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	—	1.17
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	85.8%	68.8%
Passes, last 5	526	273
Fouls, last 5	8.6	10.2
Cards, last 5	0.8	0.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	4
Drawn	3
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	16
Goals, away side	16

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 53.3% · Draw 26.7% · Away 20.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

SC Braga v GIL Vicente

primeira-liga · 19:15 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	7	7
Position last season	4	6
Points this season	11	11
Goal difference this season	+0	+1
Elo rating going in	1,725	1,584
Matches on record, all seasons	535	369
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	0.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	3	5
Failed to score, last 10	1	4
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	2
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	10	10
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.2	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	0.4
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.6	15.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	3.4
Shots per possession	0.203	0.250
On-target shots per possession	0.067	0.062
Inside-box shots per possession	0.127	0.147
Share of shots from inside the box	61.1%	57.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.54	0.90
Possession, last 5	58.0%	52.6%
Corners, last 5	5.0	3.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.236	0.246
On-target allowed per possession	0.082	0.059
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.140	0.149
Opponents' inside-box share	57.0%	54.7%
Save rate	65.4%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	1.4	1.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.97	0.68
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	83.0%
Passes, last 5	565	467
Fouls, last 5	12.4	14.2
Cards, last 5	1.8	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	22
Home side won	13
Drawn	5
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	36
Goals, away side	17

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 60.7% · Draw 23.8% · Away 15.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.