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The data behind the ratings

Friday 21 August 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

Erzurumspor FK v Galatasaray

super-lig · 18:30 UK
Finished 0–4. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position161
Position last season—1
Points this season01
Goal difference this season-3+0
Elo rating going in1,4991,882
Matches on record, all seasons75535
Recent form
Points, last 537
Goals scored, last 51.02.0
Goals conceded, last 52.21.8
Goals scored, last 101.52.0
Goals conceded, last 102.01.4
Clean sheets, last 1012
Failed to score, last 1021
Wins in a row00
Unbeaten run01
Losses in a row10
Days since last match57
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—2.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there—1.0
Scored away, last 5 there2.0—
Conceded away, last 5 there2.4—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 511.821.4
Shots on target, last 53.27.6
Shots per possession0.2780.275
On-target shots per possession0.0880.092
Inside-box shots per possession0.1540.183
Share of shots from inside the box55.6%69.6%
Expected goals, last 50.322.25
Possession, last 546.4%62.6%
Corners, last 53.86.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.2520.263
On-target allowed per possession0.0950.097
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1870.163
Opponents' inside-box share74.4%62.5%
Save rate62.4%61.9%
Saves, last 53.61.6
Expected goals conceded, last 51.150.85
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy84.0%86.8%
Passes, last 5409496
Fouls, last 510.811.4
Cards, last 51.42.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record4
Home side won0
Drawn1
Away side won3
Goals, home side2
Goals, away side6
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 14.3% · Draw 21.5% · Away 64.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Marseille v Strasbourg

ligue-1 · 18:45 UK
Finished 4–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position——
Position last season58
Points this season——
Goal difference this season——
Elo rating going in1,6581,629
Matches on record, all seasons586319
Recent form
Points, last 5710
Goals scored, last 51.02.4
Goals conceded, last 51.42.0
Goals scored, last 101.21.8
Goals conceded, last 101.21.6
Clean sheets, last 1032
Failed to score, last 1023
Wins in a row22
Unbeaten run23
Losses in a row00
Days since last match9696
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there1.81.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there1.02.0
Scored away, last 5 there——
Conceded away, last 5 there——
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 518.212.0
Shots on target, last 56.05.4
Shots per possession0.3090.215
On-target shots per possession0.1070.090
Inside-box shots per possession0.1990.139
Share of shots from inside the box63.3%63.4%
Expected goals, last 51.891.46
Possession, last 555.6%55.0%
Corners, last 55.25.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.2460.360
On-target allowed per possession0.0750.138
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1760.237
Opponents' inside-box share72.0%64.0%
Save rate64.2%72.3%
Saves, last 52.44.4
Expected goals conceded, last 51.971.68
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy84.6%87.2%
Passes, last 5477505
Fouls, last 513.610.8
Cards, last 53.01.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record17
Home side won7
Drawn9
Away side won1
Goals, home side30
Goals, away side18
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 55.3% · Draw 23.5% · Away 21.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Arsenal v Coventry

premier-league · 19:00 UK
Finished 3–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position——
Position last season11
Points this season——
Goal difference this season——
Elo rating going in1,9231,640
Matches on record, all seasons608637
Recent form
Points, last 51511
Goals scored, last 51.62.6
Goals conceded, last 50.20.6
Goals scored, last 101.52.3
Goals conceded, last 100.60.7
Clean sheets, last 1065
Failed to score, last 1002
Wins in a row53
Unbeaten run58
Losses in a row00
Days since last match89111
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there——
Conceded at home, last 5 there——
Scored away, last 5 there1.82.0
Conceded away, last 5 there0.80.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 514.816.0
Shots on target, last 55.44.8
Shots per possession0.2670.262
On-target shots per possession0.0900.092
Inside-box shots per possession0.1810.195
Share of shots from inside the box69.2%74.8%
Expected goals, last 51.742.01
Possession, last 556.6%65.6%
Corners, last 54.04.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.2040.226
On-target allowed per possession0.0570.062
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1290.164
Opponents' inside-box share61.8%69.6%
Save rate73.8%66.0%
Saves, last 51.81.2
Expected goals conceded, last 50.740.95
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy85.8%85.6%
Passes, last 5488549
Fouls, last 510.27.8
Cards, last 51.60.8
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 79.6% · Draw 14.0% · Away 6.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Cordoba v Girona

laliga-2 · 19:00 UK
Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position126
Position last season1019
Points this season01
Goal difference this season-1+0
Elo rating going in1,4471,569
Matches on record, all seasons249409
Recent form
Points, last 544
Goals scored, last 51.00.8
Goals conceded, last 51.61.0
Goals scored, last 101.60.9
Goals conceded, last 101.31.2
Clean sheets, last 1021
Failed to score, last 1012
Wins in a row00
Unbeaten run02
Losses in a row10
Days since last match55
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there—1.4
Scored away, last 5 there1.8—
Conceded away, last 5 there1.6—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 522.420.0
Shots on target, last 56.26.8
Shots per possession0.3150.270
On-target shots per possession0.1050.088
Inside-box shots per possession0.1990.166
Share of shots from inside the box62.0%63.8%
Expected goals, last 52.751.46
Possession, last 562.2%55.8%
Corners, last 58.86.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.2940.231
On-target allowed per possession0.1030.076
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1910.155
Opponents' inside-box share63.0%68.5%
Save rate71.8%63.1%
Saves, last 52.02.0
Expected goals conceded, last 50.810.92
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy85.6%86.8%
Passes, last 5465488
Fouls, last 513.811.4
Cards, last 52.61.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record2
Home side won1
Drawn0
Away side won1
Goals, home side2
Goals, away side3
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 36.0% · Draw 27.3% · Away 36.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Real Betis v Real Sociedad

la-liga · 19:00 UK
Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position——
Position last season510
Points this season——
Goal difference this season——
Elo rating going in1,6921,598
Matches on record, all seasons532608
Recent form
Points, last 5103
Goals scored, last 52.01.4
Goals conceded, last 51.41.8
Goals scored, last 101.61.6
Goals conceded, last 101.31.9
Clean sheets, last 1021
Failed to score, last 1012
Wins in a row10
Unbeaten run11
Losses in a row00
Days since last match9090
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there1.6—
Conceded at home, last 5 there0.6—
Scored away, last 5 there—1.2
Conceded away, last 5 there—1.8
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 513.08.6
Shots on target, last 55.63.0
Shots per possession0.2550.199
On-target shots per possession0.0940.075
Inside-box shots per possession0.1330.124
Share of shots from inside the box49.0%62.0%
Expected goals, last 51.551.09
Possession, last 547.2%53.6%
Corners, last 54.83.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.2590.359
On-target allowed per possession0.1050.123
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1620.215
Opponents' inside-box share62.3%57.7%
Save rate72.4%69.8%
Saves, last 54.44.2
Expected goals conceded, last 51.561.99
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy85.2%84.6%
Passes, last 5459475
Fouls, last 510.614.4
Cards, last 51.63.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record28
Home side won8
Drawn9
Away side won11
Goals, home side39
Goals, away side40
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 47.2% · Draw 27.6% · Away 25.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.