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The data behind the ratings

Monday 24 August 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

Bologna v Lazio

serie-a · 16:30 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	8	9
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,663	1,671
Matches on record, all seasons	570	608
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	4	3
Failed to score, last 10	4	3
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	4	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	93	93
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.0	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.4	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.8	10.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	4.8
Shots per possession	0.220	0.215
On-target shots per possession	0.065	0.101
Inside-box shots per possession	0.132	0.131
Share of shots from inside the box	61.1%	60.5%
Expected goals, last 5	0.88	1.14
Possession, last 5	54.6%	49.4%
Corners, last 5	4.2	4.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.212	0.250
On-target allowed per possession	0.066	0.081
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.140	0.161
Opponents' inside-box share	64.9%	65.8%
Save rate	64.1%	68.9%
Saves, last 5	1.6	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.31	1.29
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.4%	88.4%
Passes, last 5	467	503
Fouls, last 5	11.2	13.2
Cards, last 5	1.4	2.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	30
Home side won	7
Drawn	9
Away side won	14
Goals, home side	34
Goals, away side	47

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 42.6% · Draw 30.2% · Away 27.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Osasuna v Levante

la-liga · 17:30 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	7
Position last season	16	18
Points this season	—	0
Goal difference this season	—	-3
Elo rating going in	1,573	1,575
Matches on record, all seasons	540	629
Recent form
Points, last 5	0	9
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	1	4
Failed to score, last 10	2	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	5	2
Days since last match	93	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	1.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	2.4
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.4	16.6
Shots on target, last 5	5.0	5.6
Shots per possession	0.258	0.301
On-target shots per possession	0.110	0.099
Inside-box shots per possession	0.178	0.184
Share of shots from inside the box	66.3%	58.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.21	1.95
Possession, last 5	47.4%	44.2%
Corners, last 5	5.0	6.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.220	0.216
On-target allowed per possession	0.078	0.080
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.126	0.124
Opponents' inside-box share	57.2%	57.4%
Save rate	67.3%	66.2%
Saves, last 5	3.2	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.40	1.24
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	75.6%	82.6%
Passes, last 5	351	374
Fouls, last 5	13.4	9.2
Cards, last 5	2.4	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	16
Home side won	8
Drawn	3
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	24
Goals, away side	14

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 52.7% · Draw 26.3% · Away 21.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

AS Roma v Fiorentina

serie-a · 18:45 UK

Finished 4–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	3	13
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,750	1,636
Matches on record, all seasons	608	608
Recent form
Points, last 5	15	6
Goals scored, last 5	2.6	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	0.4	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	2.1	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	0.8
Clean sheets, last 10	6	5
Failed to score, last 10	0	3
Wins in a row	5	0
Unbeaten run	7	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	92	94
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.4
Scored away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.2	12.0
Shots on target, last 5	6.0	3.0
Shots per possession	0.224	0.239
On-target shots per possession	0.087	0.075
Inside-box shots per possession	0.169	0.142
Share of shots from inside the box	75.0%	60.7%
Expected goals, last 5	2.31	0.88
Possession, last 5	56.6%	45.4%
Corners, last 5	6.2	4.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.222	0.280
On-target allowed per possession	0.080	0.092
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.135	0.175
Opponents' inside-box share	60.4%	64.4%
Save rate	69.6%	81.2%
Saves, last 5	1.8	4.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.58	1.40
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	85.2%	83.6%
Passes, last 5	501	397
Fouls, last 5	12.2	11.8
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	19
Drawn	6
Away side won	7
Goals, home side	61
Goals, away side	40

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 56.3% · Draw 24.9% · Away 18.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Fulham v Chelsea

premier-league · 19:00 UK

Finished 2–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	11	10
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,715	1,740
Matches on record, all seasons	664	608
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	4
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	0.7	0.9
Goals conceded, last 10	0.9	1.9
Clean sheets, last 10	4	0
Failed to score, last 10	6	5
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	92	92
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.6	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	2.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.2	10.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	3.0
Shots per possession	0.276	0.236
On-target shots per possession	0.071	0.066
Inside-box shots per possession	0.176	0.139
Share of shots from inside the box	65.9%	59.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.26	0.91
Possession, last 5	51.8%	53.2%
Corners, last 5	5.8	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.251	0.235
On-target allowed per possession	0.085	0.119
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.169	0.176
Opponents' inside-box share	65.7%	71.7%
Save rate	74.0%	63.4%
Saves, last 5	2.8	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.34	1.66
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.4%	85.6%
Passes, last 5	460	505
Fouls, last 5	11.8	11.6
Cards, last 5	2.0	3.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	20
Home side won	3
Drawn	5
Away side won	12
Goals, home side	11
Goals, away side	28

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 23.5% · Draw 24.3% · Away 52.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

GIL Vicente v Casa Pia

primeira-liga · 19:15 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	18
Position last season	6	16
Points this season	3	0
Goal difference this season	+1	-8
Elo rating going in	1,580	1,525
Matches on record, all seasons	363	140
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	5
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	0.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	3	4
Failed to score, last 10	4	6
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	2
Days since last match	15	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.4	0.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.0	2.0
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.4	10.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.2	3.8
Shots per possession	0.239	0.236
On-target shots per possession	0.077	0.085
Inside-box shots per possession	0.143	0.156
Share of shots from inside the box	60.6%	68.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.07	1.02
Possession, last 5	51.8%	43.4%
Corners, last 5	4.6	5.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.238	0.216
On-target allowed per possession	0.073	0.060
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.139	0.136
Opponents' inside-box share	54.3%	58.2%
Save rate	67.3%	69.8%
Saves, last 5	2.2	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.24	1.63
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.4%	76.2%
Passes, last 5	405	324
Fouls, last 5	13.6	14.0
Cards, last 5	2.2	3.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	4
Drawn	3
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	10
Goals, away side	5

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 55.7% · Draw 26.3% · Away 17.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Granada CF v Mallorca

laliga-2 · 19:30 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	2
Position last season	14	17
Points this season	1	3
Goal difference this season	+0	+2
Elo rating going in	1,425	1,573
Matches on record, all seasons	591	471
Recent form
Points, last 5	1	7
Goals scored, last 5	0.4	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.8	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	3	4
Failed to score, last 10	3	1
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	1	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	9	9
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.4
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	8.8	13.0
Shots on target, last 5	2.6	4.6
Shots per possession	0.196	0.220
On-target shots per possession	0.073	0.084
Inside-box shots per possession	0.116	0.158
Share of shots from inside the box	59.5%	68.5%
Expected goals, last 5	0.69	1.28
Possession, last 5	52.0%	58.6%
Corners, last 5	3.0	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.271	0.253
On-target allowed per possession	0.101	0.064
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.175	0.164
Opponents' inside-box share	64.8%	64.0%
Save rate	61.4%	67.4%
Saves, last 5	2.4	0.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.61	1.36
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	82.8%	85.8%
Passes, last 5	404	491
Fouls, last 5	12.2	14.6
Cards, last 5	3.2	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	12
Home side won	7
Drawn	3
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	23
Goals, away side	13

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 30.4% · Draw 31.9% · Away 37.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Malaga v Deportivo La Coruna

la-liga · 19:30 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	10	4
Position last season	4	2
Points this season	0	1
Goal difference this season	-2	+0
Elo rating going in	1,540	1,531
Matches on record, all seasons	605	399
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	10
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	0.9	0.9
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	0
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	5	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.8	11.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	4.8
Shots per possession	0.267	0.263
On-target shots per possession	0.104	0.100
Inside-box shots per possession	0.192	0.185
Share of shots from inside the box	71.9%	69.5%
Expected goals, last 5	0.15	1.08
Possession, last 5	49.2%	42.4%
Corners, last 5	4.2	3.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.245	0.215
On-target allowed per possession	0.086	0.067
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.137	0.119
Opponents' inside-box share	54.4%	55.9%
Save rate	68.3%	71.6%
Saves, last 5	2.6	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.82	1.17
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	83.4%	82.8%
Passes, last 5	445	401
Fouls, last 5	11.4	12.4
Cards, last 5	2.2	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	22
Home side won	8
Drawn	8
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	30
Goals, away side	27

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 39.8% · Draw 31.9% · Away 28.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.