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The data behind the ratings

Tuesday 1 September 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

Bradford v Cambridge United

league-one · 18:45 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	5	10
Position last season	4	—
Points this season	6	4
Goal difference this season	+1	+0
Elo rating going in	1,411	1,303
Matches on record, all seasons	332	187
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	4
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	2	1
Failed to score, last 10	4	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	1
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	6.2	10.8
Shots on target, last 5	1.5	4.8
Shots per possession	0.191	0.253
On-target shots per possession	0.051	0.091
Inside-box shots per possession	0.125	0.175
Share of shots from inside the box	67.2%	67.8%
Expected goals, last 5	0.54	0.85
Possession, last 5	47.8%	49.5%
Corners, last 5	6.8	3.5
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.229	0.181
On-target allowed per possession	0.056	0.082
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.151	0.108
Opponents' inside-box share	69.1%	60.6%
Save rate	62.0%	65.6%
Saves, last 5	1.7	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.95	0.87
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	63.8%	70.8%
Passes, last 5	323	377
Fouls, last 5	11.2	10.2
Cards, last 5	1.0	2.2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 53.3% · Draw 25.1% · Away 21.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Doncaster v Notts County

league-one · 18:45 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	18	6
Position last season	14	—
Points this season	2	5
Goal difference this season	-1	+1
Elo rating going in	1,363	1,405
Matches on record, all seasons	499	187
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	8
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	2	1
Failed to score, last 10	4	2
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	2	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.5	13.0
Shots on target, last 5	5.8	6.0
Shots per possession	0.258	—
On-target shots per possession	0.101	—
Inside-box shots per possession	0.177	—
Share of shots from inside the box	65.9%	—
Expected goals, last 5	2.23	1.54
Possession, last 5	50.8%	51.0%
Corners, last 5	5.2	5.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.244	—
On-target allowed per possession	0.082	—
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.170	—
Opponents' inside-box share	67.7%	—
Save rate	67.3%	—
Saves, last 5	3.0	1.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.00	1.02
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	68.2%	75.5%
Passes, last 5	341	398
Fouls, last 5	12.0	15.5
Cards, last 5	1.8	0.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	1
Drawn	1
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	3
Goals, away side	3

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 46.0% · Draw 26.8% · Away 27.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Huddersfield v Oxford United

league-one · 18:45 UK

Finished 3–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	3
Position last season	9	23
Points this season	7	4
Goal difference this season	+4	+1
Elo rating going in	1,425	1,461
Matches on record, all seasons	685	459
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	7
Goals scored, last 5	2.2	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	2.1	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	2	1
Failed to score, last 10	0	4
Wins in a row	1	1
Unbeaten run	4	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	3	10
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	2.4	0.8
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	1.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.0	14.0
Shots on target, last 5	5.5	5.0
Shots per possession	0.324	0.323
On-target shots per possession	0.117	0.088
Inside-box shots per possession	0.232	0.196
Share of shots from inside the box	69.1%	61.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.91	1.35
Possession, last 5	53.5%	46.0%
Corners, last 5	4.0	5.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.202	0.229
On-target allowed per possession	0.059	0.068
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.121	0.156
Opponents' inside-box share	60.8%	66.8%
Save rate	57.7%	65.5%
Saves, last 5	1.2	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.92	1.35
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	78.0%	72.8%
Passes, last 5	428	344
Fouls, last 5	11.8	13.2
Cards, last 5	0.8	1.4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 56.4% · Draw 23.9% · Away 19.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Leicester v Plymouth

league-one · 18:45 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	17	10
Position last season	21	8
Points this season	2	4
Goal difference this season	-1	+0
Elo rating going in	1,464	1,468
Matches on record, all seasons	615	371
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	10
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	1.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	0
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	1	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.2	17.0
Shots on target, last 5	5.5	5.0
Shots per possession	0.328	0.399
On-target shots per possession	0.106	0.141
Inside-box shots per possession	0.174	0.271
Share of shots from inside the box	51.1%	67.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.52	2.19
Possession, last 5	61.8%	39.0%
Corners, last 5	6.8	6.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.281	0.177
On-target allowed per possession	0.074	0.050
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.183	0.110
Opponents' inside-box share	67.1%	67.2%
Save rate	63.7%	64.5%
Saves, last 5	2.8	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.16	1.08
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.8%	60.5%
Passes, last 5	516	233
Fouls, last 5	9.2	13.5
Cards, last 5	1.4	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	1
Drawn	0
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	4
Goals, away side	1

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 49.5% · Draw 23.7% · Away 26.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Lincoln v Blackburn

championship · 18:45 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	18	11
Position last season	1	22
Points this season	3	4
Goal difference this season	-2	+0
Elo rating going in	1,565	1,483
Matches on record, all seasons	317	723
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.8	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	4	2
Failed to score, last 10	0	3
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.4	9.6
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	4.0
Shots per possession	0.311	0.253
On-target shots per possession	0.103	0.086
Inside-box shots per possession	0.214	0.175
Share of shots from inside the box	66.6%	68.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.68	1.15
Possession, last 5	33.6%	42.4%
Corners, last 5	4.6	4.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.218	0.260
On-target allowed per possession	0.064	0.080
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.123	0.178
Opponents' inside-box share	55.4%	69.9%
Save rate	69.5%	70.3%
Saves, last 5	4.2	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.91	1.75
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	65.4%	79.2%
Passes, last 5	248	400
Fouls, last 5	13.2	11.0
Cards, last 5	2.4	3.0

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 41.0% · Draw 27.8% · Away 31.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Peterborough v Stevenage

league-one · 18:45 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	14	18
Position last season	18	6
Points this season	3	2
Goal difference this season	-5	-1
Elo rating going in	1,335	1,410
Matches on record, all seasons	688	283
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	2
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	0.8	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	2.1	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.8	10.2
Shots on target, last 5	5.0	3.5
Shots per possession	0.230	0.239
On-target shots per possession	0.079	0.088
Inside-box shots per possession	0.137	0.172
Share of shots from inside the box	59.6%	71.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.75	0.76
Possession, last 5	57.0%	45.5%
Corners, last 5	5.5	6.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.386	0.205
On-target allowed per possession	0.170	0.074
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.277	0.122
Opponents' inside-box share	69.7%	61.7%
Save rate	69.4%	61.5%
Saves, last 5	5.2	1.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.93	0.94
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.0%	66.0%
Passes, last 5	457	313
Fouls, last 5	9.2	13.2
Cards, last 5	0.6	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	3
Drawn	2
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	9
Goals, away side	8

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 37.0% · Draw 27.5% · Away 35.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Portsmouth v Derby

championship · 18:45 UK

Finished 0–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	16	20
Position last season	18	8
Points this season	3	1
Goal difference this season	-1	-4
Elo rating going in	1,490	1,503
Matches on record, all seasons	502	703
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	0	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	1
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.0	13.4
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	4.0
Shots per possession	0.215	0.271
On-target shots per possession	0.067	0.088
Inside-box shots per possession	0.128	0.204
Share of shots from inside the box	57.7%	74.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.38	1.29
Possession, last 5	54.6%	46.8%
Corners, last 5	4.8	5.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.252	0.295
On-target allowed per possession	0.083	0.113
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.180	0.195
Opponents' inside-box share	70.5%	67.8%
Save rate	68.2%	71.2%
Saves, last 5	2.8	6.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.62	2.14
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	75.8%	75.0%
Passes, last 5	357	363
Fouls, last 5	12.2	12.8
Cards, last 5	1.0	3.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	0
Drawn	6
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	9
Goals, away side	17

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 42.8% · Draw 28.5% · Away 28.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Preston v Bristol City

championship · 18:45 UK

Finished 1–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	23	13
Position last season	14	12
Points this season	0	4
Goal difference this season	-4	-1
Elo rating going in	1,455	1,508
Matches on record, all seasons	698	695
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.9	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	0	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	2
Losses in a row	4	0
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.4	10.6
Shots on target, last 5	3.4	3.2
Shots per possession	0.260	0.231
On-target shots per possession	0.078	0.090
Inside-box shots per possession	0.180	0.136
Share of shots from inside the box	68.2%	56.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.45	1.13
Possession, last 5	42.0%	43.4%
Corners, last 5	5.2	3.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.315	0.272
On-target allowed per possession	0.094	0.077
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.183	0.181
Opponents' inside-box share	59.8%	67.2%
Save rate	65.3%	72.8%
Saves, last 5	1.8	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.79	1.83
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	70.6%	70.8%
Passes, last 5	325	346
Fouls, last 5	13.0	10.0
Cards, last 5	2.8	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	26
Home side won	11
Drawn	11
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	37
Goals, away side	26

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 36.2% · Draw 27.8% · Away 35.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Sheffield Utd v Bolton

championship · 18:45 UK

Finished 3–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	14	11
Position last season	13	5
Points this season	3	4
Goal difference this season	+0	+0
Elo rating going in	1,527	1,486
Matches on record, all seasons	680	673
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	0.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	3	3
Failed to score, last 10	3	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	4	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.6	13.0
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	4.6
Shots per possession	0.251	0.287
On-target shots per possession	0.090	0.093
Inside-box shots per possession	0.173	0.165
Share of shots from inside the box	71.4%	62.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.71	1.20
Possession, last 5	45.4%	54.0%
Corners, last 5	4.2	5.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.276	0.220
On-target allowed per possession	0.098	0.074
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.190	0.161
Opponents' inside-box share	70.5%	71.0%
Save rate	63.6%	67.3%
Saves, last 5	3.6	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.73	0.99
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	70.0%	74.8%
Passes, last 5	332	413
Fouls, last 5	11.6	9.6
Cards, last 5	1.4	0.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	4
Drawn	0
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	8
Goals, away side	2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 56.0% · Draw 24.7% · Away 19.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Swansea v Watford

championship · 18:45 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	9
Position last season	11	16
Points this season	7	5
Goal difference this season	+4	+1
Elo rating going in	1,550	1,479
Matches on record, all seasons	642	648
Recent form
Points, last 5	11	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	0.6	2.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.8	0.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	2.2
Clean sheets, last 10	3	0
Failed to score, last 10	1	4
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	6	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.4	13.2
Shots on target, last 5	5.2	4.2
Shots per possession	0.236	0.294
On-target shots per possession	0.095	0.092
Inside-box shots per possession	0.155	0.184
Share of shots from inside the box	67.3%	58.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.39	1.03
Possession, last 5	60.4%	40.0%
Corners, last 5	5.8	2.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.303	0.298
On-target allowed per possession	0.087	0.105
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.215	0.180
Opponents' inside-box share	72.2%	61.2%
Save rate	70.4%	61.5%
Saves, last 5	2.6	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.13	1.53
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.0%	79.6%
Passes, last 5	496	346
Fouls, last 5	8.6	11.6
Cards, last 5	2.4	2.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	16
Home side won	7
Drawn	3
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	17
Goals, away side	13

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 49.8% · Draw 26.1% · Away 24.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

West Ham v Wolves

championship · 18:45 UK

Finished 4–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	19	1
Position last season	18	20
Points this season	2	7
Goal difference this season	-1	+5
Elo rating going in	1,645	1,591
Matches on record, all seasons	622	659
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	9
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	2.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	3	0
Failed to score, last 10	3	4
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	1	5
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.0	15.8
Shots on target, last 5	5.8	4.6
Shots per possession	0.278	0.305
On-target shots per possession	0.104	0.083
Inside-box shots per possession	0.204	0.206
Share of shots from inside the box	73.1%	70.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.69	1.94
Possession, last 5	56.2%	44.8%
Corners, last 5	6.2	5.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.274	0.247
On-target allowed per possession	0.093	0.084
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.177	0.165
Opponents' inside-box share	64.0%	65.1%
Save rate	65.0%	61.6%
Saves, last 5	3.0	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.46	0.99
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.4%	79.2%
Passes, last 5	469	375
Fouls, last 5	9.4	12.8
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	18
Home side won	9
Drawn	1
Away side won	8
Goals, home side	24
Goals, away side	19

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 46.9% · Draw 26.2% · Away 26.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Wycombe v Sheffield Wednesday

league-one · 18:45 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	21	3
Position last season	11	24
Points this season	2	6
Goal difference this season	-4	+5
Elo rating going in	1,414	1,350
Matches on record, all seasons	413	703
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	9
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	2.4
Goals conceded, last 5	2.6	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	2.2	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	1	1
Failed to score, last 10	2	4
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	3.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.2	15.2
Shots on target, last 5	6.8	6.8
Shots per possession	0.260	0.244
On-target shots per possession	0.104	0.067
Inside-box shots per possession	0.183	0.179
Share of shots from inside the box	71.7%	72.0%
Expected goals, last 5	2.36	1.92
Possession, last 5	55.2%	54.0%
Corners, last 5	8.5	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.286	0.291
On-target allowed per possession	0.110	0.104
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.166	0.218
Opponents' inside-box share	57.1%	74.5%
Save rate	59.2%	69.1%
Saves, last 5	2.2	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.24	1.56
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	79.2%	79.2%
Passes, last 5	427	406
Fouls, last 5	10.0	11.5
Cards, last 5	0.6	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	2
Drawn	1
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	6
Goals, away side	12

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 37.4% · Draw 26.0% · Away 36.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Birmingham v Southampton

championship · 19:00 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	5
Position last season	10	4
Points this season	5	6
Goal difference this season	+1	+5
Elo rating going in	1,556	1,615
Matches on record, all seasons	733	602
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	2.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	2.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	1
Wins in a row	1	2
Unbeaten run	8	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	4	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.4	16.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	4.4
Shots per possession	0.235	0.288
On-target shots per possession	0.094	0.085
Inside-box shots per possession	0.163	0.197
Share of shots from inside the box	68.6%	68.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.58	1.95
Possession, last 5	50.2%	54.4%
Corners, last 5	7.2	6.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.242	0.323
On-target allowed per possession	0.073	0.096
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.167	0.209
Opponents' inside-box share	68.2%	63.0%
Save rate	67.3%	72.9%
Saves, last 5	2.0	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.02	1.08
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	69.0%	84.8%
Passes, last 5	354	465
Fouls, last 5	11.8	10.4
Cards, last 5	1.8	2.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	0
Drawn	2
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	7
Goals, away side	15

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 38.2% · Draw 27.5% · Away 34.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Stoke City v Norwich

championship · 19:00 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	24	16
Position last season	17	9
Points this season	0	3
Goal difference this season	-6	-1
Elo rating going in	1,424	1,529
Matches on record, all seasons	675	650
Recent form
Points, last 5	0	4
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	2.8	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	0.8	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	2.2	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	1	0
Failed to score, last 10	3	2
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	7	0
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	0.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.8	15.2
Shots on target, last 5	2.4	5.0
Shots per possession	0.221	0.273
On-target shots per possession	0.052	0.097
Inside-box shots per possession	0.160	0.173
Share of shots from inside the box	74.7%	62.3%
Expected goals, last 5	0.94	1.69
Possession, last 5	46.4%	51.0%
Corners, last 5	6.0	5.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.258	0.223
On-target allowed per possession	0.083	0.103
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.172	0.173
Opponents' inside-box share	65.3%	76.4%
Save rate	53.5%	64.1%
Saves, last 5	2.2	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.83	1.61
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	79.0%	79.4%
Passes, last 5	346	411
Fouls, last 5	14.4	12.4
Cards, last 5	2.8	2.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	20
Home side won	5
Drawn	7
Away side won	8
Goals, home side	21
Goals, away side	28

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 30.4% · Draw 27.0% · Away 42.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.