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The data behind the ratings

Thursday 3 September 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

Hibernian v Heart Of Midlothian

scottish-prem · 18:45 UK

Finished 1–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	5	2
Position last season	5	2
Points this season	6	6
Goal difference this season	+1	+4
Elo rating going in	1,612	1,670
Matches on record, all seasons	486	523
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	9
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	2.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	2.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	0
Wins in a row	2	2
Unbeaten run	2	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	4	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.2	14.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	4.8
Shots per possession	0.252	0.288
On-target shots per possession	0.078	0.101
Inside-box shots per possession	0.162	0.195
Share of shots from inside the box	61.6%	68.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.66	1.34
Possession, last 5	42.0%	47.4%
Corners, last 5	5.4	6.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.266	0.210
On-target allowed per possession	0.081	0.050
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.156	0.134
Opponents' inside-box share	58.9%	64.0%
Save rate	73.8%	60.6%
Saves, last 5	4.8	1.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.47	1.50
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	78.6%	72.4%
Passes, last 5	373	364
Fouls, last 5	13.2	10.8
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	42
Home side won	10
Drawn	14
Away side won	18
Goals, home side	36
Goals, away side	51

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 37.2% · Draw 28.0% · Away 34.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Toulouse v Lille

ligue-1 · 18:45 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	17	1
Position last season	9	3
Points this season	1	4
Goal difference this season	-2	+2
Elo rating going in	1,561	1,695
Matches on record, all seasons	514	588
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	8
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.8	0.6
Clean sheets, last 10	2	6
Failed to score, last 10	3	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	1	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	5	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.0	12.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.4	5.4
Shots per possession	0.253	0.229
On-target shots per possession	0.074	0.103
Inside-box shots per possession	0.146	0.155
Share of shots from inside the box	55.5%	67.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.28	1.20
Possession, last 5	44.8%	51.0%
Corners, last 5	4.0	4.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.237	0.194
On-target allowed per possession	0.084	0.053
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.143	0.124
Opponents' inside-box share	53.3%	67.0%
Save rate	67.6%	71.3%
Saves, last 5	2.4	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.98	0.87
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	82.4%	84.4%
Passes, last 5	307	434
Fouls, last 5	13.6	10.4
Cards, last 5	2.8	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	28
Home side won	6
Drawn	6
Away side won	16
Goals, home side	28
Goals, away side	46

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 25.7% · Draw 28.0% · Away 46.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Real Sociedad v Celta Vigo

la-liga · 19:00 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	12	17
Position last season	10	6
Points this season	3	1
Goal difference this season	-3	-3
Elo rating going in	1,597	1,612
Matches on record, all seasons	611	535
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.9	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	0	3
Failed to score, last 10	3	3
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	2
Days since last match	5	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.0	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	2.2	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.6	6.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.6	2.4
Shots per possession	0.201	0.141
On-target shots per possession	0.084	0.061
Inside-box shots per possession	0.141	0.096
Share of shots from inside the box	68.3%	60.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.24	0.62
Possession, last 5	51.4%	51.8%
Corners, last 5	5.4	3.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.352	0.283
On-target allowed per possession	0.123	0.091
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.198	0.180
Opponents' inside-box share	55.4%	61.2%
Save rate	70.5%	70.7%
Saves, last 5	4.8	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.81	1.84
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.4%	86.2%
Passes, last 5	475	535
Fouls, last 5	13.8	10.8
Cards, last 5	3.0	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	28
Home side won	13
Drawn	8
Away side won	7
Goals, home side	43
Goals, away side	35

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 50.1% · Draw 26.4% · Away 23.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.