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The data behind the ratings

Friday 4 September 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

Başakşehir v Galatasaray

super-lig · 17:00 UK

Finished 2–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	7	1
Position last season	5	1
Points this season	4	7
Goal difference this season	+1	+5
Elo rating going in	1,692	1,888
Matches on record, all seasons	503	537
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	2.6
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.8	2.3
Goals conceded, last 10	0.8	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	5	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	1
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	1	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	5	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.6	2.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.2	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.8	23.4
Shots on target, last 5	4.2	8.4
Shots per possession	0.291	0.287
On-target shots per possession	0.092	0.102
Inside-box shots per possession	0.200	0.202
Share of shots from inside the box	68.7%	73.4%
Expected goals, last 5	2.01	2.63
Possession, last 5	50.2%	64.8%
Corners, last 5	3.8	5.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.261	0.261
On-target allowed per possession	0.081	0.098
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.148	0.163
Opponents' inside-box share	55.6%	62.2%
Save rate	77.0%	64.3%
Saves, last 5	3.6	1.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.02	0.62
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.4%	88.4%
Passes, last 5	448	542
Fouls, last 5	15.0	8.8
Cards, last 5	2.6	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	28
Home side won	6
Drawn	6
Away side won	16
Goals, home side	32
Goals, away side	51

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 18.8% · Draw 21.4% · Away 59.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Lyon v Auxerre

ligue-1 · 17:00 UK

Finished 3–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	18
Position last season	4	15
Points this season	4	0
Goal difference this season	+2	-5
Elo rating going in	1,663	1,508
Matches on record, all seasons	588	186
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	9
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	1.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	3	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	2
Days since last match	6	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.0	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.8	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.2	13.4
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	5.8
Shots per possession	0.239	0.254
On-target shots per possession	0.093	0.108
Inside-box shots per possession	0.164	0.173
Share of shots from inside the box	68.2%	69.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.70	1.30
Possession, last 5	55.2%	48.4%
Corners, last 5	8.8	6.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.293	0.225
On-target allowed per possession	0.092	0.093
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.200	0.164
Opponents' inside-box share	64.9%	72.8%
Save rate	69.3%	62.8%
Saves, last 5	2.6	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.36	2.27
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	85.4%	80.2%
Passes, last 5	430	420
Fouls, last 5	9.2	16.0
Cards, last 5	0.8	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	5
Drawn	3
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	17
Goals, away side	14

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 64.1% · Draw 20.9% · Away 15.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Sparta Rotterdam v PEC Zwolle

eredivisie · 18:00 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	9	14
Position last season	10	15
Points this season	4	3
Goal difference this season	+0	-4
Elo rating going in	1,530	1,497
Matches on record, all seasons	308	442
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	3
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	2.2	2.6
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	4	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	1
Days since last match	6	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.6	8.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.2	2.0
Shots per possession	0.272	0.220
On-target shots per possession	0.075	0.068
Inside-box shots per possession	0.188	0.132
Share of shots from inside the box	68.2%	59.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.52	0.98
Possession, last 5	49.2%	40.4%
Corners, last 5	4.8	2.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.302	0.299
On-target allowed per possession	0.095	0.114
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.200	0.186
Opponents' inside-box share	64.7%	62.6%
Save rate	61.0%	62.0%
Saves, last 5	2.0	4.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.79	1.93
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.2%	74.2%
Passes, last 5	410	307
Fouls, last 5	11.2	10.6
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	15
Home side won	4
Drawn	5
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	18
Goals, away side	22

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 49.4% · Draw 24.3% · Away 26.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Las Palmas v Leganes

laliga-2 · 18:30 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	1
Position last season	5	16
Points this season	6	7
Goal difference this season	+0	+2
Elo rating going in	1,534	1,453
Matches on record, all seasons	449	405
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	0.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	1	4
Failed to score, last 10	1	4
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	0	4
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	6	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.8	8.0
Shots on target, last 5	3.4	3.6
Shots per possession	0.192	0.228
On-target shots per possession	0.075	0.087
Inside-box shots per possession	0.107	0.141
Share of shots from inside the box	56.4%	60.4%
Expected goals, last 5	—	0.37
Possession, last 5	56.2%	41.4%
Corners, last 5	2.8	2.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.281	0.288
On-target allowed per possession	0.098	0.096
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.204	0.177
Opponents' inside-box share	74.0%	62.4%
Save rate	64.7%	70.4%
Saves, last 5	3.4	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	—	1.31
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	86.6%	76.0%
Passes, last 5	507	341
Fouls, last 5	10.6	13.2
Cards, last 5	1.4	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	14
Home side won	5
Drawn	3
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	13
Goals, away side	17

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 46.3% · Draw 30.4% · Away 23.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

VfB Stuttgart v 1. FC Köln

bundesliga · 18:30 UK

Finished 4–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	3
Position last season	4	14
Points this season	0	3
Goal difference this season	-4	+1
Elo rating going in	1,663	1,490
Matches on record, all seasons	481	411
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	4
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	2.4	2.8
Goals scored, last 10	2.2	1.8
Goals conceded, last 10	2.0	2.2
Clean sheets, last 10	2	0
Failed to score, last 10	1	0
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Scored away, last 5 there	2.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	3.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.6	15.6
Shots on target, last 5	5.8	5.8
Shots per possession	0.284	0.322
On-target shots per possession	0.122	0.120
Inside-box shots per possession	0.182	0.238
Share of shots from inside the box	64.0%	73.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.72	1.73
Possession, last 5	51.2%	44.8%
Corners, last 5	7.0	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.289	0.225
On-target allowed per possession	0.130	0.078
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.194	0.155
Opponents' inside-box share	67.7%	68.3%
Save rate	66.3%	53.6%
Saves, last 5	4.4	1.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.09	1.73
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.0%	81.6%
Passes, last 5	440	405
Fouls, last 5	11.8	9.0
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	20
Home side won	10
Drawn	6
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	30
Goals, away side	20

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 64.2% · Draw 18.9% · Away 16.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Genoa v Como

serie-a · 18:45 UK

Finished 1–4. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	16	3
Position last season	16	4
Points this season	0	4
Goal difference this season	-3	+1
Elo rating going in	1,559	1,725
Matches on record, all seasons	572	78
Recent form
Points, last 5	1	13
Goals scored, last 5	0.2	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	0.6
Goals scored, last 10	0.5	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	0.9
Clean sheets, last 10	2	5
Failed to score, last 10	7	2
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	7
Losses in a row	4	0
Days since last match	5	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	0.4	2.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.6	0.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.0	18.0
Shots on target, last 5	1.8	5.8
Shots per possession	0.200	0.268
On-target shots per possession	0.055	0.084
Inside-box shots per possession	0.114	0.179
Share of shots from inside the box	58.1%	68.0%
Expected goals, last 5	0.73	1.72
Possession, last 5	55.8%	63.6%
Corners, last 5	3.8	8.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.250	0.246
On-target allowed per possession	0.082	0.068
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.165	0.160
Opponents' inside-box share	63.2%	67.0%
Save rate	71.9%	68.9%
Saves, last 5	2.0	1.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.17	1.18
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	85.2%	88.0%
Passes, last 5	444	532
Fouls, last 5	8.2	10.4
Cards, last 5	0.8	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	0
Drawn	2
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	2
Goals, away side	5

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 17.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 52.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Ipswich v Liverpool

premier-league · 19:00 UK

Finished 0–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	12	10
Position last season	2	5
Points this season	3	2
Goal difference this season	-2	+0
Elo rating going in	1,627	1,808
Matches on record, all seasons	676	610
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	1.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	3	1
Failed to score, last 10	2	0
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	3
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	5	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.0	17.6
Shots on target, last 5	5.4	5.4
Shots per possession	0.257	0.268
On-target shots per possession	0.103	0.089
Inside-box shots per possession	0.185	0.175
Share of shots from inside the box	72.5%	64.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.85	1.80
Possession, last 5	46.4%	58.8%
Corners, last 5	5.2	7.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.279	0.319
On-target allowed per possession	0.106	0.115
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.175	0.230
Opponents' inside-box share	63.9%	71.4%
Save rate	68.1%	64.8%
Saves, last 5	4.2	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.70	1.54
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	79.8%	86.0%
Passes, last 5	375	495
Fouls, last 5	12.6	12.6
Cards, last 5	2.0	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	0
Drawn	0
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	1
Goals, away side	6

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 16.7% · Draw 19.4% · Away 63.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Real Betis v Real Madrid

la-liga · 19:00 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	5	1
Position last season	5	2
Points this season	6	9
Goal difference this season	-1	+8
Elo rating going in	1,696	1,853
Matches on record, all seasons	535	611
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	15
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	3.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.8	2.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	0.8
Clean sheets, last 10	3	4
Failed to score, last 10	0	1
Wins in a row	0	6
Unbeaten run	0	6
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	6	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	3.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.6	14.0
Shots on target, last 5	5.2	6.6
Shots per possession	0.290	0.254
On-target shots per possession	0.104	0.106
Inside-box shots per possession	0.162	0.177
Share of shots from inside the box	54.2%	72.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.24	1.73
Possession, last 5	53.4%	61.2%
Corners, last 5	4.4	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.283	0.312
On-target allowed per possession	0.116	0.081
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.195	0.197
Opponents' inside-box share	67.9%	63.6%
Save rate	70.2%	73.5%
Saves, last 5	4.4	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.79	0.66
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	87.0%	91.4%
Passes, last 5	524	539
Fouls, last 5	9.2	7.0
Cards, last 5	1.2	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	28
Home side won	5
Drawn	8
Away side won	15
Goals, home side	26
Goals, away side	55

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 13.6% · Draw 18.2% · Away 68.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Paris Saint Germain v Monaco

ligue-1 · 19:05 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	6	1
Position last season	1	7
Points this season	2	6
Goal difference this season	+0	+3
Elo rating going in	1,805	1,672
Matches on record, all seasons	587	512
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	9
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	2.0	1.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	4	2
Failed to score, last 10	0	1
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	2	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.8	13.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	5.2
Shots per possession	0.250	0.262
On-target shots per possession	0.079	0.101
Inside-box shots per possession	0.146	0.180
Share of shots from inside the box	60.2%	69.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.30	1.13
Possession, last 5	66.8%	53.2%
Corners, last 5	6.8	5.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.300	0.311
On-target allowed per possession	0.133	0.112
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.196	0.202
Opponents' inside-box share	62.4%	64.1%
Save rate	67.2%	61.3%
Saves, last 5	3.8	1.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.48	0.99
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	89.4%	84.6%
Passes, last 5	727	480
Fouls, last 5	6.0	12.0
Cards, last 5	0.8	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	28
Home side won	10
Drawn	10
Away side won	8
Goals, home side	54
Goals, away side	40

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 70.1% · Draw 17.4% · Away 12.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

FC Porto v Moreirense

primeira-liga · 19:15 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	10
Position last season	1	7
Points this season	12	4
Goal difference this season	+9	-3
Elo rating going in	1,890	1,566
Matches on record, all seasons	532	409
Recent form
Points, last 5	15	5
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	0.0	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.9	0.9
Goals conceded, last 10	0.5	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	7	3
Failed to score, last 10	0	4
Wins in a row	5	1
Unbeaten run	5	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	6	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	2.2	0.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	2.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.2	8.2
Shots on target, last 5	6.0	3.0
Shots per possession	0.279	0.183
On-target shots per possession	0.101	0.067
Inside-box shots per possession	0.187	0.098
Share of shots from inside the box	68.1%	53.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.98	0.47
Possession, last 5	51.0%	49.6%
Corners, last 5	6.8	4.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.210	0.239
On-target allowed per possession	0.064	0.079
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.105	0.171
Opponents' inside-box share	47.4%	73.5%
Save rate	73.8%	60.8%
Saves, last 5	1.6	1.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.81	1.44
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.2%	78.8%
Passes, last 5	417	437
Fouls, last 5	13.8	12.2
Cards, last 5	0.2	3.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	24
Home side won	19
Drawn	4
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	63
Goals, away side	15

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 82.0% · Draw 12.1% · Away 5.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.