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The data behind the ratings

Wednesday 9 September 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

Barcelona v Feyenoord

champions-league · 16:45 UK

Finished 5–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	2
Position last season	1	2
Points this season	12	11
Goal difference this season	+15	+6
Elo rating going in	1,897	1,759
Matches on record, all seasons	612	544
Recent form
Points, last 5	12	11
Goals scored, last 5	3.6	2.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	2.7	2.2
Goals conceded, last 10	0.8	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	5	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	0
Wins in a row	4	1
Unbeaten run	4	14
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	3	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	2.6	2.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	0.8
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	19.0	21.6
Shots on target, last 5	8.0	7.4
Shots per possession	0.225	0.350
On-target shots per possession	0.096	0.130
Inside-box shots per possession	0.172	0.230
Share of shots from inside the box	76.1%	66.2%
Expected goals, last 5	3.10	2.83
Possession, last 5	68.8%	54.8%
Corners, last 5	6.8	6.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.278	0.219
On-target allowed per possession	0.087	0.059
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.189	0.141
Opponents' inside-box share	69.8%	64.1%
Save rate	70.4%	66.0%
Saves, last 5	2.0	1.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.88	0.96
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	89.5%	88.2%
Passes, last 5	654	483
Fouls, last 5	8.6	8.8
Cards, last 5	1.2	0.8

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 89.8% · Draw 7.1% · Away 3.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Twente v Telstar

eredivisie · 16:45 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	5	14
Position last season	4	14
Points this season	7	4
Goal difference this season	+4	-5
Elo rating going in	1,667	1,543
Matches on record, all seasons	518	44
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	7
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	2.1	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.9
Clean sheets, last 10	1	1
Failed to score, last 10	1	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	3	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	20.6	8.8
Shots on target, last 5	6.8	2.4
Shots per possession	0.343	0.239
On-target shots per possession	0.131	0.085
Inside-box shots per possession	0.234	0.182
Share of shots from inside the box	66.1%	74.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.75	1.35
Possession, last 5	57.8%	44.8%
Corners, last 5	6.8	3.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.269	0.301
On-target allowed per possession	0.083	0.125
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.144	0.204
Opponents' inside-box share	53.6%	68.1%
Save rate	63.2%	67.1%
Saves, last 5	2.4	4.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.01	1.81
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.8%	76.5%
Passes, last 5	512	362
Fouls, last 5	9.0	12.6
Cards, last 5	0.8	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	0
Drawn	2
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	1
Goals, away side	1

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 75.4% · Draw 14.2% · Away 10.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Derby v West Brom

championship · 18:45 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	20	4
Position last season	8	19
Points this season	4	10
Goal difference this season	-5	+2
Elo rating going in	1,510	1,510
Matches on record, all seasons	705	673
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.8	0.8
Clean sheets, last 10	2	5
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	2
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	4	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.5	10.0
Shots on target, last 5	2.8	4.8
Shots per possession	0.250	0.215
On-target shots per possession	0.085	0.085
Inside-box shots per possession	0.179	0.159
Share of shots from inside the box	68.8%	73.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.07	1.50
Possession, last 5	46.5%	50.5%
Corners, last 5	5.5	4.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.326	0.257
On-target allowed per possession	0.126	0.079
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.213	0.189
Opponents' inside-box share	65.8%	72.7%
Save rate	71.2%	80.5%
Saves, last 5	4.8	4.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.13	2.11
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	77.0%	85.3%
Passes, last 5	392	494
Fouls, last 5	14.8	11.2
Cards, last 5	2.6	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	6
Drawn	3
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	16
Goals, away side	8

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 31.1% · Draw 28.5% · Away 40.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Norwich v Birmingham

championship · 18:45 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	12	11
Position last season	9	10
Points this season	6	7
Goal difference this season	+0	+1
Elo rating going in	1,531	1,554
Matches on record, all seasons	652	735
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	0	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	1
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	10
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	4	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.8	10.8
Shots on target, last 5	5.8	3.2
Shots per possession	0.306	0.251
On-target shots per possession	0.110	0.097
Inside-box shots per possession	0.195	0.175
Share of shots from inside the box	62.6%	69.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.92	1.49
Possession, last 5	48.2%	53.0%
Corners, last 5	4.5	7.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.238	0.219
On-target allowed per possession	0.116	0.067
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.184	0.146
Opponents' inside-box share	76.2%	65.7%
Save rate	64.7%	66.0%
Saves, last 5	2.8	2.5
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.67	1.07
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	79.3%	70.0%
Passes, last 5	396	373
Fouls, last 5	11.8	14.0
Cards, last 5	2.2	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	16
Home side won	9
Drawn	3
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	25
Goals, away side	18

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 50.5% · Draw 24.8% · Away 24.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Rangers v ST Mirren

scottish-prem · 18:45 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	2
Position last season	3	11
Points this season	10	10
Goal difference this season	+2	+3
Elo rating going in	1,715	1,495
Matches on record, all seasons	447	490
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	2	5
Failed to score, last 10	0	1
Wins in a row	3	0
Unbeaten run	3	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	4	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.8	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.8	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	21.4	16.0
Shots on target, last 5	6.6	5.0
Shots per possession	0.332	0.317
On-target shots per possession	0.107	0.110
Inside-box shots per possession	0.229	0.193
Share of shots from inside the box	69.4%	61.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.77	1.75
Possession, last 5	57.0%	47.2%
Corners, last 5	7.2	5.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.227	0.232
On-target allowed per possession	0.086	0.067
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.163	0.169
Opponents' inside-box share	72.0%	71.2%
Save rate	63.7%	68.1%
Saves, last 5	2.4	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.26	1.39
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.7%	79.7%
Passes, last 5	443	416
Fouls, last 5	13.0	12.4
Cards, last 5	1.6	2.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	31
Home side won	24
Drawn	4
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	65
Goals, away side	19

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 73.0% · Draw 16.6% · Away 10.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Charlton v QPR

championship · 19:00 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	2
Position last season	20	15
Points this season	10	10
Goal difference this season	-1	+3
Elo rating going in	1,496	1,491
Matches on record, all seasons	703	674
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	5
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	1
Days since last match	4	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.0	16.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.5	6.5
Shots per possession	0.318	0.287
On-target shots per possession	0.114	0.110
Inside-box shots per possession	0.217	0.185
Share of shots from inside the box	67.4%	63.7%
Expected goals, last 5	0.84	1.76
Possession, last 5	40.2%	49.5%
Corners, last 5	4.8	6.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.249	0.250
On-target allowed per possession	0.079	0.099
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.166	0.150
Opponents' inside-box share	67.5%	64.1%
Save rate	67.7%	68.7%
Saves, last 5	4.0	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.63	1.05
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	74.7%	82.0%
Passes, last 5	318	437
Fouls, last 5	11.5	6.8
Cards, last 5	1.4	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	3
Drawn	2
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	8
Goals, away side	8

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 30.5% · Draw 28.4% · Away 41.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Liverpool v Atletico Madrid

champions-league · 19:00 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	5	6
Position last season	5	4
Points this season	5	7
Goal difference this season	+2	+1
Elo rating going in	1,829	1,774
Matches on record, all seasons	611	612
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.9	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	0	2
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	4	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	5	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	2.0	1.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	2.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	18.0	14.0
Shots on target, last 5	6.2	4.8
Shots per possession	0.263	0.265
On-target shots per possession	0.092	0.087
Inside-box shots per possession	0.165	0.170
Share of shots from inside the box	61.5%	68.9%
Expected goals, last 5	2.11	0.91
Possession, last 5	60.2%	55.4%
Corners, last 5	7.0	6.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.316	0.288
On-target allowed per possession	0.111	0.094
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.216	0.191
Opponents' inside-box share	67.4%	65.9%
Save rate	68.2%	67.2%
Saves, last 5	3.0	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.80	1.80
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	86.5%	87.5%
Passes, last 5	507	546
Fouls, last 5	11.8	12.6
Cards, last 5	2.6	2.0

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 55.0% · Draw 24.1% · Away 20.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Napoli v Arsenal

champions-league · 19:00 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	10	1
Position last season	2	1
Points this season	3	9
Goal difference this season	+0	+5
Elo rating going in	1,749	1,941
Matches on record, all seasons	611	611
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	15
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	0.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	0.6
Clean sheets, last 10	5	6
Failed to score, last 10	2	0
Wins in a row	0	8
Unbeaten run	0	8
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	4	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.6	14.6
Shots on target, last 5	4.2	5.4
Shots per possession	0.254	0.253
On-target shots per possession	0.077	0.090
Inside-box shots per possession	0.168	0.178
Share of shots from inside the box	61.6%	70.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.08	1.67
Possession, last 5	54.0%	60.2%
Corners, last 5	3.8	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.265	0.203
On-target allowed per possession	0.099	0.052
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.172	0.118
Opponents' inside-box share	63.5%	55.8%
Save rate	70.9%	69.7%
Saves, last 5	3.0	1.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.70	0.44
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	89.8%	89.0%
Passes, last 5	515	527
Fouls, last 5	6.8	9.6
Cards, last 5	1.2	1.2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 16.1% · Draw 24.6% · Away 59.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

ST Johnstone v Celtic

scottish-prem · 19:00 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	7	1
Position last season	—	1
Points this season	7	15
Goal difference this season	+0	+10
Elo rating going in	1,420	1,808
Matches on record, all seasons	566	600
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	15
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	2.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	0.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	2.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.8	0.9
Clean sheets, last 10	0	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	0
Wins in a row	1	12
Unbeaten run	2	12
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	3	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.8	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	2.8
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.4	24.0
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	9.6
Shots per possession	0.236	0.312
On-target shots per possession	0.063	0.120
Inside-box shots per possession	0.153	0.207
Share of shots from inside the box	65.8%	64.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.40	3.69
Possession, last 5	53.4%	61.2%
Corners, last 5	3.8	9.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.291	0.273
On-target allowed per possession	0.091	0.082
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.160	0.174
Opponents' inside-box share	57.0%	66.0%
Save rate	68.9%	70.5%
Saves, last 5	3.4	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.28	0.62
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	83.0%	89.0%
Passes, last 5	491	633
Fouls, last 5	10.4	10.2
Cards, last 5	1.2	0.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	50
Home side won	5
Drawn	8
Away side won	37
Goals, home side	30
Goals, away side	127

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 15.7% · Draw 19.6% · Away 64.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Sporting CP v Galatasaray

champions-league · 19:00 UK

Finished 3–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	1
Position last season	2	1
Points this season	13	10
Goal difference this season	+9	+6
Elo rating going in	1,886	1,899
Matches on record, all seasons	533	538
Recent form
Points, last 5	13	10
Goals scored, last 5	2.8	2.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	2.9	2.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	0	1
Wins in a row	4	3
Unbeaten run	10	4
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	4	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	3.2	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.8	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	2.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.8	21.4
Shots on target, last 5	5.6	7.8
Shots per possession	0.224	0.302
On-target shots per possession	0.100	0.108
Inside-box shots per possession	0.153	0.205
Share of shots from inside the box	64.7%	68.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.47	2.24
Possession, last 5	61.8%	61.2%
Corners, last 5	5.0	5.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.238	0.233
On-target allowed per possession	0.068	0.085
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.127	0.147
Opponents' inside-box share	48.6%	63.2%
Save rate	70.4%	62.4%
Saves, last 5	1.2	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.68	0.68
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	89.0%	88.8%
Passes, last 5	507	525
Fouls, last 5	11.2	9.8
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 56.6% · Draw 23.5% · Away 19.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Moreirense v Benfica

primeira-liga · 19:45 UK

Finished 0–4. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	11	2
Position last season	7	3
Points this season	4	10
Goal difference this season	-4	+11
Elo rating going in	1,565	1,893
Matches on record, all seasons	410	532
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	13
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	3.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	2.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	3	3
Failed to score, last 10	3	0
Wins in a row	0	3
Unbeaten run	0	53
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	5	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	3.4
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.4	0.8
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	7.6	20.6
Shots on target, last 5	3.0	8.2
Shots per possession	0.177	0.342
On-target shots per possession	0.069	0.130
Inside-box shots per possession	0.102	0.259
Share of shots from inside the box	56.4%	76.6%
Expected goals, last 5	0.52	3.10
Possession, last 5	43.6%	60.8%
Corners, last 5	2.8	7.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.256	0.194
On-target allowed per possession	0.080	0.073
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.180	0.133
Opponents' inside-box share	72.6%	68.0%
Save rate	60.4%	69.8%
Saves, last 5	2.6	1.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.46	0.80
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	77.0%	87.8%
Passes, last 5	380	545
Fouls, last 5	12.8	13.2
Cards, last 5	3.2	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	24
Home side won	1
Drawn	5
Away side won	18
Goals, home side	18
Goals, away side	54

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 5.7% · Draw 11.8% · Away 82.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.