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The data behind the ratings

Thursday 10 September 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

Fenerbahçe v AS Roma

champions-league · 16:45 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	1
Position last season	2	3
Points this season	6	9
Goal difference this season	+2	+9
Elo rating going in	1,819	1,789
Matches on record, all seasons	538	611
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	15
Goals scored, last 5	2.2	2.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	0.2
Goals scored, last 10	2.3	2.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	0.4
Clean sheets, last 10	3	7
Failed to score, last 10	1	0
Wins in a row	0	8
Unbeaten run	0	10
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	5	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.6	2.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	2.0	0.4
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	18.0	21.2
Shots on target, last 5	7.0	8.0
Shots per possession	0.310	0.284
On-target shots per possession	0.122	0.115
Inside-box shots per possession	0.199	0.211
Share of shots from inside the box	62.2%	74.6%
Expected goals, last 5	2.12	2.67
Possession, last 5	57.4%	61.4%
Corners, last 5	6.2	6.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.257	0.194
On-target allowed per possession	0.089	0.069
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.140	0.107
Opponents' inside-box share	54.9%	57.3%
Save rate	65.6%	75.9%
Saves, last 5	2.2	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.85	0.64
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	88.8%	87.8%
Passes, last 5	518	567
Fouls, last 5	12.6	11.4
Cards, last 5	2.2	1.4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 26.6% · Draw 26.4% · Away 47.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Como v RB Leipzig

champions-league · 19:00 UK

Finished 4–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	7
Position last season	4	3
Points this season	7	3
Goal difference this season	+4	+1
Elo rating going in	1,742	1,678
Matches on record, all seasons	79	342
Recent form
Points, last 5	13	6
Goals scored, last 5	2.4	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	2.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.9	2.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	4	3
Failed to score, last 10	1	0
Wins in a row	2	0
Unbeaten run	8	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	6	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	2.4	1.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	2.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	19.8	17.0
Shots on target, last 5	6.8	6.4
Shots per possession	0.277	0.312
On-target shots per possession	0.091	0.134
Inside-box shots per possession	0.179	0.222
Share of shots from inside the box	66.6%	69.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.94	1.93
Possession, last 5	63.2%	58.4%
Corners, last 5	8.0	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.246	0.281
On-target allowed per possession	0.065	0.101
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.158	0.190
Opponents' inside-box share	66.4%	67.5%
Save rate	65.2%	63.0%
Saves, last 5	1.2	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.21	1.88
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	88.2%	86.5%
Passes, last 5	554	551
Fouls, last 5	9.0	8.4
Cards, last 5	1.0	1.4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 54.0% · Draw 23.8% · Away 22.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Stevenage v Luton

league-one · 19:00 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	15	7
Position last season	6	7
Points this season	6	8
Goal difference this season	+3	+0
Elo rating going in	1,421	1,478
Matches on record, all seasons	285	370
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	8
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	2.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	2.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	0
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	3	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	5	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.0	13.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.3	5.0
Shots per possession	0.240	0.292
On-target shots per possession	0.093	0.096
Inside-box shots per possession	0.174	0.206
Share of shots from inside the box	71.4%	71.1%
Expected goals, last 5	0.73	1.61
Possession, last 5	45.3%	51.8%
Corners, last 5	6.0	6.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.209	0.305
On-target allowed per possession	0.067	0.099
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.129	0.197
Opponents' inside-box share	63.4%	63.8%
Save rate	64.7%	64.5%
Saves, last 5	2.3	1.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.95	1.06
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	65.0%	80.0%
Passes, last 5	295	434
Fouls, last 5	13.3	11.0
Cards, last 5	0.6	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	1
Drawn	0
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	3
Goals, away side	2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 31.0% · Draw 27.4% · Away 41.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Estrela v SC Braga

primeira-liga · 19:15 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	8	7
Position last season	15	4
Points this season	6	7
Goal difference this season	+1	+2
Elo rating going in	1,514	1,745
Matches on record, all seasons	108	531
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	9
Goals scored, last 5	2.2	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	1	3
Failed to score, last 10	3	0
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	6	6
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	5	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.4	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.4
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.6	11.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.6	4.0
Shots per possession	0.246	0.149
On-target shots per possession	0.088	0.053
Inside-box shots per possession	0.166	0.084
Share of shots from inside the box	67.9%	53.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.28	1.10
Possession, last 5	42.8%	61.6%
Corners, last 5	2.8	3.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.223	0.248
On-target allowed per possession	0.075	0.081
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.126	0.126
Opponents' inside-box share	55.2%	47.8%
Save rate	63.0%	64.1%
Saves, last 5	3.0	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.91	1.09
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.0%	84.0%
Passes, last 5	336	588
Fouls, last 5	10.8	14.0
Cards, last 5	3.2	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	0
Drawn	3
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	8
Goals, away side	14

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 18.9% · Draw 24.7% · Away 56.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.