Latest · All reports · The data behind it · This day's report

The data behind the ratings

Wednesday 16 September 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

Atletico Madrid v Osasuna

la-liga · 17:00 UK

Finished 4–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	11
Position last season	4	16
Points this season	10	7
Goal difference this season	+4	-3
Elo rating going in	1,736	1,573
Matches on record, all seasons	613	545
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	7
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	4	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	3
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	2
Days since last match	3	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.8	10.6
Shots on target, last 5	5.0	4.6
Shots per possession	0.282	0.251
On-target shots per possession	0.090	0.100
Inside-box shots per possession	0.179	0.159
Share of shots from inside the box	65.8%	61.5%
Expected goals, last 5	0.82	1.68
Possession, last 5	54.2%	49.8%
Corners, last 5	4.8	3.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.276	0.203
On-target allowed per possession	0.091	0.077
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.178	0.117
Opponents' inside-box share	61.7%	55.9%
Save rate	69.8%	59.5%
Saves, last 5	2.6	1.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.57	0.70
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	87.3%	81.3%
Passes, last 5	533	429
Fouls, last 5	12.0	13.0
Cards, last 5	2.0	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	24
Home side won	20
Drawn	1
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	47
Goals, away side	16

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 69.0% · Draw 19.4% · Away 11.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Deportivo La Coruna v Sevilla

la-liga · 17:00 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	5	3
Position last season	2	15
Points this season	9	10
Goal difference this season	+3	+2
Elo rating going in	1,562	1,586
Matches on record, all seasons	403	613
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	0	2
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	5	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	3	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	8.6	12.0
Shots on target, last 5	3.4	4.0
Shots per possession	0.235	0.305
On-target shots per possession	0.098	0.101
Inside-box shots per possession	0.173	0.168
Share of shots from inside the box	72.8%	55.1%
Expected goals, last 5	0.96	1.22
Possession, last 5	46.0%	43.2%
Corners, last 5	3.8	3.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.232	0.178
On-target allowed per possession	0.069	0.060
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.130	0.113
Opponents' inside-box share	56.4%	61.3%
Save rate	72.6%	64.8%
Saves, last 5	3.2	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.57	1.39
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	85.3%	75.7%
Passes, last 5	436	325
Fouls, last 5	13.2	15.0
Cards, last 5	2.4	3.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	12
Home side won	0
Drawn	5
Away side won	7
Goals, home side	14
Goals, away side	27

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 37.0% · Draw 32.1% · Away 30.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Barcelona v Racing Santander

la-liga · 19:30 UK

Finished 7–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	8
Position last season	1	1
Points this season	15	7
Goal difference this season	+17	+0
Elo rating going in	1,894	1,563
Matches on record, all seasons	613	293
Recent form
Points, last 5	15	7
Goals scored, last 5	4.2	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	2.9	2.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	4	0
Failed to score, last 10	1	1
Wins in a row	5	1
Unbeaten run	5	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	3	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	3.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	3.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	19.2	11.2
Shots on target, last 5	8.4	4.0
Shots per possession	0.224	0.296
On-target shots per possession	0.099	0.125
Inside-box shots per possession	0.171	0.197
Share of shots from inside the box	75.9%	67.6%
Expected goals, last 5	3.62	1.50
Possession, last 5	68.6%	49.2%
Corners, last 5	6.2	5.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.314	0.273
On-target allowed per possession	0.115	0.106
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.217	0.177
Opponents' inside-box share	70.0%	66.1%
Save rate	68.6%	67.6%
Saves, last 5	2.2	4.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.67	1.05
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	89.0%	81.3%
Passes, last 5	673	418
Fouls, last 5	9.2	15.2
Cards, last 5	1.0	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	4
Drawn	0
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	11
Goals, away side	0

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 91.0% · Draw 5.1% · Away 3.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Levante v Athletic Club

la-liga · 18:00 UK

Finished 3–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	17	9
Position last season	18	12
Points this season	7	9
Goal difference this season	-4	+1
Elo rating going in	1,579	1,620
Matches on record, all seasons	636	615
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	9
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	0.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.8	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	3	4
Failed to score, last 10	3	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	2	5
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	5	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	0.4	0.8
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	1.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.2	16.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.6	4.4
Shots per possession	0.324	0.292
On-target shots per possession	0.117	0.088
Inside-box shots per possession	0.222	0.199
Share of shots from inside the box	65.9%	68.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.43	1.65
Possession, last 5	42.0%	56.4%
Corners, last 5	3.6	5.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.263	0.192
On-target allowed per possession	0.099	0.072
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.170	0.128
Opponents' inside-box share	64.0%	55.6%
Save rate	66.7%	69.5%
Saves, last 5	2.8	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.85	1.02
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	87.0%
Passes, last 5	375	538
Fouls, last 5	10.2	12.6
Cards, last 5	1.6	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	24
Home side won	5
Drawn	3
Away side won	16
Goals, home side	29
Goals, away side	44

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 25.5% · Draw 30.9% · Away 43.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.