Latest · All reports · The data behind it · This day's report

The data behind the ratings

Sunday 4 October 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

Real Sociedad II v Granada CF

laliga-2 · 12:00 UK
Finished 2–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position1413
Position last season1514
Points this season88
Goal difference this season-1-1
Elo rating going in1,3961,420
Matches on record, all seasons91597
Recent form
Points, last 554
Goals scored, last 51.41.6
Goals conceded, last 51.62.2
Goals scored, last 101.31.2
Goals conceded, last 101.61.7
Clean sheets, last 1002
Failed to score, last 1023
Wins in a row00
Unbeaten run00
Losses in a row22
Days since last match88
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there—1.4
Scored away, last 5 there1.8—
Conceded away, last 5 there2.0—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 510.618.0
Shots on target, last 53.04.6
Shots per possession0.2680.271
On-target shots per possession0.0900.079
Inside-box shots per possession0.1590.160
Share of shots from inside the box59.1%58.3%
Expected goals, last 5——
Possession, last 539.6%56.0%
Corners, last 53.06.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.2430.266
On-target allowed per possession0.0830.121
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1580.145
Opponents' inside-box share63.7%54.1%
Save rate66.2%67.2%
Saves, last 53.24.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5——
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy78.0%76.0%
Passes, last 5325410
Fouls, last 519.013.0
Cards, last 53.22.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record2
Home side won0
Drawn0
Away side won2
Goals, home side2
Goals, away side7
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 36.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 34.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Sporting Gijon v Celta de Vigo II

laliga-2 · 14:15 UK
Finished 3–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position1115
Position last season9—
Points this season108
Goal difference this season-1-3
Elo rating going in1,4571,449
Matches on record, all seasons5417
Recent form
Points, last 564
Goals scored, last 50.80.8
Goals conceded, last 51.21.8
Goals scored, last 101.3—
Goals conceded, last 100.9—
Clean sheets, last 1032
Failed to score, last 1043
Wins in a row00
Unbeaten run01
Losses in a row10
Days since last match78
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—1.5
Conceded at home, last 5 there—2.2
Scored away, last 5 there1.8—
Conceded away, last 5 there1.0—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 511.013.4
Shots on target, last 53.23.8
Shots per possession0.2190.256
On-target shots per possession0.0950.090
Inside-box shots per possession0.1530.147
Share of shots from inside the box65.6%55.4%
Expected goals, last 5——
Possession, last 551.2%51.2%
Corners, last 53.44.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.2430.285
On-target allowed per possession0.0650.108
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1330.199
Opponents' inside-box share53.8%72.0%
Save rate73.5%66.0%
Saves, last 52.63.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5——
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy79.0%80.0%
Passes, last 5434467
Fouls, last 511.411.8
Cards, last 53.62.4
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 60.7% · Draw 22.5% · Away 16.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Castellón v AD Ceuta FC

laliga-2 · 16:30 UK
Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position119
Position last season69
Points this season194
Goal difference this season+12-11
Elo rating going in1,5501,438
Matches on record, all seasons13549
Recent form
Points, last 5154
Goals scored, last 52.61.0
Goals conceded, last 50.42.0
Goals scored, last 101.91.0
Goals conceded, last 100.72.1
Clean sheets, last 1052
Failed to score, last 1013
Wins in a row51
Unbeaten run72
Losses in a row00
Days since last match68
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there—1.2
Scored away, last 5 there1.8—
Conceded away, last 5 there1.0—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 517.214.4
Shots on target, last 56.44.0
Shots per possession0.2590.231
On-target shots per possession0.0950.068
Inside-box shots per possession0.1760.145
Share of shots from inside the box68.3%61.3%
Expected goals, last 5——
Possession, last 560.2%52.6%
Corners, last 54.86.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.2420.235
On-target allowed per possession0.0700.093
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1640.154
Opponents' inside-box share69.0%63.5%
Save rate68.1%59.2%
Saves, last 53.01.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5——
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy85.0%86.0%
Passes, last 5579412
Fouls, last 59.614.6
Cards, last 51.62.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record2
Home side won0
Drawn2
Away side won0
Goals, home side4
Goals, away side4
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 78.1% · Draw 13.6% · Away 8.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Las Palmas v Valladolid

laliga-2 · 16:30 UK
Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position1115
Position last season516
Points this season108
Goal difference this season-1-3
Elo rating going in1,5171,389
Matches on record, all seasons453487
Recent form
Points, last 548
Goals scored, last 51.21.2
Goals conceded, last 52.01.2
Goals scored, last 101.30.7
Goals conceded, last 101.41.6
Clean sheets, last 1031
Failed to score, last 1025
Wins in a row01
Unbeaten run02
Losses in a row20
Days since last match77
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there—1.2
Scored away, last 5 there1.6—
Conceded away, last 5 there1.8—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 510.411.6
Shots on target, last 53.84.6
Shots per possession0.1880.226
On-target shots per possession0.0620.075
Inside-box shots per possession0.1150.135
Share of shots from inside the box60.0%59.2%
Expected goals, last 5——
Possession, last 553.2%47.8%
Corners, last 54.63.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.2740.266
On-target allowed per possession0.0950.095
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1920.161
Opponents' inside-box share70.3%60.5%
Save rate65.6%65.7%
Saves, last 52.22.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5——
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy88.0%83.0%
Passes, last 5476382
Fouls, last 512.613.8
Cards, last 53.03.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record6
Home side won4
Drawn2
Away side won0
Goals, home side8
Goals, away side4
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 42.7% · Draw 28.7% · Away 28.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Girona v Mallorca

laliga-2 · 19:00 UK
Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position35
Position last season1917
Points this season1313
Goal difference this season+6+5
Elo rating going in1,5731,563
Matches on record, all seasons415477
Recent form
Points, last 51210
Goals scored, last 52.41.2
Goals conceded, last 51.00.2
Goals scored, last 101.61.2
Goals conceded, last 101.10.8
Clean sheets, last 1026
Failed to score, last 1014
Wins in a row20
Unbeaten run20
Losses in a row01
Days since last match97
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there2.02.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there1.20.2
Scored away, last 5 there——
Conceded away, last 5 there——
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 513.612.6
Shots on target, last 55.24.4
Shots per possession0.3200.239
On-target shots per possession0.1150.079
Inside-box shots per possession0.1880.138
Share of shots from inside the box58.5%59.2%
Expected goals, last 5——
Possession, last 544.8%51.4%
Corners, last 53.04.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.2430.245
On-target allowed per possession0.0850.062
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1620.147
Opponents' inside-box share67.4%55.8%
Save rate75.3%73.2%
Saves, last 55.22.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5——
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy88.0%91.0%
Passes, last 5416462
Fouls, last 511.813.4
Cards, last 52.63.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record12
Home side won5
Drawn1
Away side won6
Goals, home side13
Goals, away side13
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 40.8% · Draw 28.2% · Away 31.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.