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The data behind the ratings

Wednesday 14 October 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

Feyenoord v Como

champions-league · 16:45 UK

Finished 3–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	6
Position last season	2	4
Points this season	20	11
Goal difference this season	+20	+3
Elo rating going in	1,759	1,742
Matches on record, all seasons	547	82
Recent form
Points, last 5	13	10
Goals scored, last 5	3.8	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	0.6	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	3.0	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	0.8	0.7
Clean sheets, last 10	5	4
Failed to score, last 10	0	3
Wins in a row	4	0
Unbeaten run	17	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	4	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.4	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.0	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	21.6	23.0
Shots on target, last 5	9.0	6.8
Shots per possession	0.379	0.317
On-target shots per possession	0.144	0.098
Inside-box shots per possession	0.257	0.207
Share of shots from inside the box	67.9%	66.3%
Expected goals, last 5	2.31	1.99
Possession, last 5	53.8%	63.0%
Corners, last 5	6.2	7.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.210	0.297
On-target allowed per possession	0.058	0.072
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.122	0.192
Opponents' inside-box share	55.4%	66.5%
Save rate	68.9%	71.0%
Saves, last 5	1.6	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.65	1.42
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	93.0%	89.0%
Passes, last 5	504	608
Fouls, last 5	10.2	7.0
Cards, last 5	1.0	1.2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 29.8% · Draw 25.2% · Away 45.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Norwich v Southampton

championship · 18:45 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	17	3
Position last season	9	4
Points this season	9	17
Goal difference this season	-2	+10
Elo rating going in	1,512	1,623
Matches on record, all seasons	656	608
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	10
Goals scored, last 5	2.4	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	2.4	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.8	2.2
Goals conceded, last 10	2.1	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	0	1
Failed to score, last 10	2	0
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	3	0
Days since last match	4	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	3.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.8	13.8
Shots on target, last 5	5.6	4.6
Shots per possession	0.292	0.281
On-target shots per possession	0.102	0.088
Inside-box shots per possession	0.189	0.198
Share of shots from inside the box	64.2%	71.0%
Expected goals, last 5	0.67	1.35
Possession, last 5	51.0%	55.4%
Corners, last 5	4.2	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.256	0.362
On-target allowed per possession	0.109	0.090
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.192	0.260
Opponents' inside-box share	74.6%	70.1%
Save rate	57.7%	69.8%
Saves, last 5	2.6	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.25	0.81
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	417	513
Fouls, last 5	10.6	8.8
Cards, last 5	2.2	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	14
Home side won	4
Drawn	4
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	15
Goals, away side	23

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 38.8% · Draw 25.5% · Away 35.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Portsmouth v Sheffield Utd

championship · 18:45 UK

Finished 3–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	19	13
Position last season	18	13
Points this season	8	12
Goal difference this season	-2	+1
Elo rating going in	1,482	1,522
Matches on record, all seasons	507	686
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	6
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	3	3
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	3	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.5	8.4
Shots on target, last 5	4.5	3.6
Shots per possession	0.279	0.213
On-target shots per possession	0.083	0.088
Inside-box shots per possession	0.174	0.136
Share of shots from inside the box	59.3%	65.1%
Expected goals, last 5	0.81	0.61
Possession, last 5	48.0%	42.8%
Corners, last 5	5.8	2.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.242	0.273
On-target allowed per possession	0.089	0.082
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.183	0.197
Opponents' inside-box share	75.9%	70.5%
Save rate	70.1%	69.3%
Saves, last 5	3.2	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.35	1.34
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	350	362
Fouls, last 5	13.8	13.8
Cards, last 5	1.2	2.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	1
Drawn	1
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	4
Goals, away side	7

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 40.3% · Draw 28.4% · Away 31.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

QPR v Derby

championship · 18:45 UK

Finished 4–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	6	23
Position last season	15	8
Points this season	14	6
Goal difference this season	+3	-7
Elo rating going in	1,499	1,491
Matches on record, all seasons	678	709
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	2
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	0.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	2	1
Failed to score, last 10	4	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	4	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	5	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.0	12.4
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	3.4
Shots per possession	0.295	0.258
On-target shots per possession	0.102	0.078
Inside-box shots per possession	0.188	0.165
Share of shots from inside the box	65.8%	61.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.23	0.56
Possession, last 5	51.2%	54.4%
Corners, last 5	7.6	6.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.245	0.290
On-target allowed per possession	0.071	0.119
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.153	0.213
Opponents' inside-box share	65.5%	74.7%
Save rate	69.8%	65.3%
Saves, last 5	2.8	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.62	1.32
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	460	427
Fouls, last 5	8.8	11.6
Cards, last 5	2.8	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	21
Home side won	8
Drawn	3
Away side won	10
Goals, home side	20
Goals, away side	21

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 58.1% · Draw 23.5% · Away 18.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

AS Roma v Real Madrid

champions-league · 19:00 UK

Finished 3–4. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	3
Position last season	3	2
Points this season	14	18
Goal difference this season	+11	+11
Elo rating going in	1,789	1,858
Matches on record, all seasons	614	616
Recent form
Points, last 5	11	9
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	0.6	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	2.5	2.4
Goals conceded, last 10	0.5	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	7	3
Failed to score, last 10	1	1
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	13	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	3	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	3.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	19.0	16.6
Shots on target, last 5	5.8	6.0
Shots per possession	0.310	0.287
On-target shots per possession	0.112	0.115
Inside-box shots per possession	0.223	0.205
Share of shots from inside the box	71.9%	71.2%
Expected goals, last 5	2.02	1.47
Possession, last 5	52.0%	48.6%
Corners, last 5	5.8	7.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.212	0.274
On-target allowed per possession	0.070	0.092
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.120	0.149
Opponents' inside-box share	58.1%	54.5%
Save rate	75.4%	70.4%
Saves, last 5	2.6	4.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.34	0.62
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.7%	—
Passes, last 5	508	472
Fouls, last 5	11.8	8.8
Cards, last 5	2.0	2.8

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 26.3% · Draw 23.6% · Away 50.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Aston Villa v Fenerbahçe

champions-league · 19:00 UK

Finished 6–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	14	3
Position last season	4	2
Points this season	5	13
Goal difference this season	-5	+13
Elo rating going in	1,786	1,819
Matches on record, all seasons	644	541
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	2.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	0.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	2.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.8	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	1	5
Failed to score, last 10	3	1
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	2	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	4	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.8	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	0.4
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.4	15.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	6.8
Shots per possession	0.246	0.347
On-target shots per possession	0.084	0.148
Inside-box shots per possession	0.153	0.240
Share of shots from inside the box	60.9%	67.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.07	2.53
Possession, last 5	50.8%	48.0%
Corners, last 5	3.0	5.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.311	0.284
On-target allowed per possession	0.103	0.094
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.186	0.148
Opponents' inside-box share	62.0%	52.6%
Save rate	67.7%	72.6%
Saves, last 5	3.6	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.18	0.92
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.0%	85.7%
Passes, last 5	438	436
Fouls, last 5	10.6	13.2
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 57.5% · Draw 23.2% · Away 19.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Lincoln v West Ham

championship · 19:00 UK

Finished 0–6. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	16	2
Position last season	1	18
Points this season	11	16
Goal difference this season	-4	+11
Elo rating going in	1,557	1,662
Matches on record, all seasons	323	628
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	11
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	3.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	2.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	5	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	0
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	7
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	4	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	3.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.4	15.4
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	6.8
Shots per possession	0.309	0.277
On-target shots per possession	0.086	0.111
Inside-box shots per possession	0.219	0.207
Share of shots from inside the box	69.2%	73.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.34	1.62
Possession, last 5	44.4%	57.2%
Corners, last 5	3.0	5.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.241	0.290
On-target allowed per possession	0.075	0.103
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.134	0.201
Opponents' inside-box share	55.3%	66.6%
Save rate	68.3%	64.2%
Saves, last 5	2.4	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.61	1.23
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	303	495
Fouls, last 5	14.2	11.0
Cards, last 5	2.8	2.2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 20.8% · Draw 23.8% · Away 55.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Manchester City v Paris Saint Germain

champions-league · 19:00 UK

Finished 2–4. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	5
Position last season	2	1
Points this season	18	11
Goal difference this season	+11	+3
Elo rating going in	1,910	1,821
Matches on record, all seasons	614	591
Recent form
Points, last 5	15	10
Goals scored, last 5	2.8	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	2.4	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	0.8	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	5	3
Failed to score, last 10	0	0
Wins in a row	6	3
Unbeaten run	6	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	3	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	2.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.0	21.8
Shots on target, last 5	5.0	7.8
Shots per possession	0.248	0.293
On-target shots per possession	0.086	0.093
Inside-box shots per possession	0.166	0.163
Share of shots from inside the box	66.7%	56.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.40	2.81
Possession, last 5	63.0%	66.6%
Corners, last 5	5.8	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.285	0.320
On-target allowed per possession	0.099	0.128
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.188	0.206
Opponents' inside-box share	66.4%	62.2%
Save rate	74.9%	68.2%
Saves, last 5	3.4	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.79	1.29
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	93.0%	91.0%
Passes, last 5	608	712
Fouls, last 5	11.0	5.8
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.0

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 48.1% · Draw 22.7% · Away 29.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Real Betis v FC Porto

champions-league · 19:00 UK

Finished 3–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	1
Position last season	5	1
Points this season	19	24
Goal difference this season	+5	+16
Elo rating going in	1,722	1,911
Matches on record, all seasons	540	536
Recent form
Points, last 5	13	15
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	2.8
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	2.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	0.7
Clean sheets, last 10	4	5
Failed to score, last 10	0	0
Wins in a row	1	9
Unbeaten run	5	9
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	3	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.0	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.6	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	2.4
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.8	16.8
Shots on target, last 5	7.2	6.6
Shots per possession	0.323	0.293
On-target shots per possession	0.122	0.115
Inside-box shots per possession	0.185	0.202
Share of shots from inside the box	53.3%	69.9%
Expected goals, last 5	2.96	1.83
Possession, last 5	52.8%	55.6%
Corners, last 5	5.4	5.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.336	0.238
On-target allowed per possession	0.133	0.068
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.230	0.121
Opponents' inside-box share	67.1%	50.5%
Save rate	72.8%	69.5%
Saves, last 5	4.8	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.00	0.54
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	84.0%
Passes, last 5	507	424
Fouls, last 5	10.4	14.4
Cards, last 5	1.4	1.4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 44.8% · Draw 26.2% · Away 29.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.