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Football ratings

Sunday 1 November 2026 · times UK

The model's strongest calls

75%Como — home winComo v Venezia · 11:30 · market 73% · this strong, 78% land (4,355 cases)

70%Lazio — home winLazio v Cagliari · 14:00 · market 67% · this strong, 78% land (4,355 cases)

69%Celtic — away winFalkirk v Celtic · 13:00 · market 66% · this strong, 71% land (1,529 cases)

£10 on all 3 as one multiple returns about £27 if every one lands. The model puts that at 36%, the market at 32%, and the price needs 37% just to break even.Bookmaker margin compounds with every leg, which is why the break-even sits above the market's own view. A same-match bet builder pays less than this — the bookmaker prices in that the legs move together. Our chance is a straight multiplication and is if anything a little low: where two legs of one match both cleared, they landed together 55.5% of the time against a multiplied 53.4%.

Goals — supporting, not headline

These are calibrated — a 65% call lands about 65% of the time. But the model separates high- from low-scoring matches far less sharply than it separates winners, so there is less information behind a goals number than a result one.

69%Falkirk v Celtic — over 2.5 goals13:00 · market 65% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

66%Groningen v Sparta Rotterdam — over 2.5 goals15:45 · market 67% · this strong, 70% land (1,528 cases)

63%Como v Venezia — over 2.5 goals11:30 · market 69% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

62%Telstar v Utrecht — over 2.5 goals13:30 · market 62% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

62%Sheffield Wednesday v Blackpool — over 2.5 goals14:00 · market 61% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

62%Racing Santander v Real Madrid — over 2.5 goals15:15 · market 79% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

62%Excelsior v Twente — over 2.5 goals13:30 · market 64% · this strong, 66% land (4,584 cases)

59%Getafe v Sevilla — under 2.5 goals13:00 · market 65% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

58%Maritimo v Santa Clara — under 2.5 goals18:00 · market 62% · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

56%Tenerife v FC Andorra — under 2.5 goals20:00 · no price yet · this strong, 58% land (10,295 cases)

Every fixture

Premier League

Liverpool v Arsenal16:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	28	28	44
Market	33	28	39

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	54	46
Market	51	49

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

League One

Sheffield Wednesday v Blackpool14:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	61	22	16
Market	55	23	22

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	62	38
Market	61	39

Under 4.5 goals: 79% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 7 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

La Liga

Getafe v Sevilla13:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	35	31	34
Market	29	32	39

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	41	59
Market	35	65

Under 4.5 goals: 91% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Racing Santander v Real Madrid15:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	19	22	59
Market	9	12	79

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	62	38
Market	79	21

Under 4.5 goals: 76% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 19 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Elche v Valencia17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	37	28	34
Market	41	28	31

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	49	51
Market	49	51

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Athletic Club v Real Sociedad20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	54	25	21
Market	45	26	29

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	56	44
Market	57	43

Under 4.5 goals: 82% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 9 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Serie A

Como v Venezia11:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	75	16	9
Market	73	16	11

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	63	37
Market	69	31

Under 4.5 goals: 71% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Frosinone v Torino14:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	40	26	33
Market	45	25	31

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	56	44
Market	68	32

Under 4.5 goals: 81% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Lazio v Cagliari14:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	70	19	11
Market	67	20	13

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	58	42
Market	54	46

Under 4.5 goals: 78% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Lecce v Genoa17:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	39	28	32
Market	27	32	41

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	49	51
Market	39	61

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 12 points above the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Juventus v Napoli19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	39	27	33
Market	40	29	31

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	52	48
Market	48	52

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Bundesliga

Union Berlin v 1. FC Köln14:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	34	27	39
Market	35	27	38

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	57	43
Market	56	44

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Eintracht Frankfurt v Hamburger SV16:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	56	25	19
Market	62	20	17

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	55	45
Market	68	32

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 6 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Ligue 1

Strasbourg v Auxerre14:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	47	26	27
Market	52	24	24

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	59	41
Market	61	39

Under 4.5 goals: 80% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Lyon v Angers16:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	65	22	13
Market	69	18	13

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	58	42
Market	62	38

Under 4.5 goals: 81% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Paris FC v Monaco16:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	37	29	34
Market	38	27	34

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	48	52
Market	53	47

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Marseille v Toulouse19:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	50	25	25
Market	49	24	27

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	58	42
Market	62	38

Under 4.5 goals: 81% · happens 86% of the time anyway

La Liga 2

Eldense v Granada CF13:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	40	28	33
Market	40	28	31

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	51	49
Market	50	50

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

AD Ceuta FC v Sporting Gijon15:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	40	29	31
Market	38	27	35

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	47	53
Market	51	49

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Burgos v Castellón17:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	35	28	37
Market	25	29	46

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	52	48
Market	51	49

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 9 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Tenerife v FC Andorra20:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	50	28	22

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	44	56

Under 4.5 goals: 90% · happens 86% of the time anyway

No market price yet — bookmakers usually post a few days out.

Scottish Premiership

Falkirk v Celtic13:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	13	18	69
Market	15	19	66

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	69	31
Market	65	35

Under 4.5 goals: 69% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Eredivisie

PEC Zwolle v ADO Den Haag11:15

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	44	27	29
Market	42	26	33

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	58	42
Market	59	41

Under 4.5 goals: 82% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Excelsior v Twente13:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	18	22	60
Market	17	21	61

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	62	38
Market	64	36

Under 4.5 goals: 78% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Telstar v Utrecht13:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	26	25	49
Market	33	26	41

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	62	38
Market	62	38

Under 4.5 goals: 78% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 8 points above the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Groningen v Sparta Rotterdam15:45

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	48	24	28
Market	54	23	23

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	66	34
Market	67	33

Under 4.5 goals: 74% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 6 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Primeira Liga

Arouca v Nacional15:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	57	26	17
Market	55	25	21

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	47	53
Market	52	48

Under 4.5 goals: 89% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Academico Viseu v Rio Ave18:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	51	27	22
Market	51	26	23

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	50	50
Market	52	48

Under 4.5 goals: 88% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Maritimo v Santa Clara18:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	30	30	39
Market	26	32	42

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	42	58
Market	38	62

Under 4.5 goals: 91% · happens 86% of the time anyway

SC Braga v Famalicao20:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	58	25	17
Market	56	26	18

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	55	45
Market	45	55

Under 4.5 goals: 85% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Super Lig

Amed v Eyüpspor10:30

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	63	23	14
Market	77	15	8

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	55	45
Market	60	40

Under 4.5 goals: 84% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 14 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Başakşehir v Samsunspor13:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	51	27	22
Market	54	24	23

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	50	50
Market	60	40

Under 4.5 goals: 87% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Trabzonspor v Gaziantep FK13:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	65	22	13
Market	75	15	10

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	59	41
Market	70	30

Under 4.5 goals: 81% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 10 points below the market on home win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

Kasımpaşa v Beşiktaş16:00

	Home	Draw	Away
Model	29	28	43
Market	17	22	61

	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Model	51	49
Market	57	43

Under 4.5 goals: 86% · happens 86% of the time anyway

Model is 18 points below the market on away win (pinnacle). Worth a look at why.

How the calls did

✓PSV Eindhoven 7–0 Willem IIPSV Eindhoven home win 90%

✓Barcelona 6–1 AlavesBarcelona home win 88%

✕Feyenoord 1–1 Fortuna SittardFeyenoord home win 83%

✓PSV Eindhoven 7–0 Willem II over 2.5 goals 79%

✓Barcelona 6–1 Alaves over 2.5 goals 77%

✓FC Porto 4–0 EstorilFC Porto home win 76%

✓Stockport County 2–1 AFC WimbledonStockport County home win 74%

✓Real Betis 2–1 MalagaReal Betis home win 73%

✕Feyenoord 1–1 Fortuna Sittard over 2.5 goals 70%

✓Bayer Leverkusen 2–4 VfB Stuttgart over 2.5 goals 69%

✓Bayern München 2–2 Borussia Dortmund over 2.5 goals 67%

✓Fenerbahçe 1–2 Göztepe over 2.5 goals 67%

✕Werder Bremen 2–0 1899 Hoffenheim over 2.5 goals 67%

✓FC Augsburg 1–2 SC Freiburg over 2.5 goals 67%

✓FC Porto 4–0 Estoril over 2.5 goals 66%

✕Manchester City 0–1 Brighton over 2.5 goals 63%

✕FC Schalke 04 0–2 RB Leipzig over 2.5 goals 63%

✓Cambuur 4–0 GO Ahead Eagles over 2.5 goals 63%

✓Stockport County 2–1 AFC Wimbledon over 2.5 goals 63%

✕Plymouth 0–0 Reading over 2.5 goals 63%

✓Levante 0–2 Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid away win 63%

✕Borussia Mönchengladbach 0–0 SC Paderborn 07 over 2.5 goals 62%

✓West Ham 1–3 West Brom over 2.5 goals 62%

✓Udinese 2–5 AS Roma over 2.5 goals 62%

✓Real Betis 2–1 Malaga over 2.5 goals 61%

✕Heerenveen 1–0 NEC Nijmegen over 2.5 goals 61%

✕Ajax 1–0 AZ Alkmaar over 2.5 goals 61%

✕Chelsea 2–0 Manchester United over 2.5 goals 60%

✕Albacete 2–1 Sabadell under 2.5 goals 56%

18 of 29 settled since yesterday · 382 of 570 since the model went live.

Every match, for the record

The model rates the whole card, not just the calls, and learns from all of it. Judged as probabilities rather than picks — a 38% favourite losing is the model working, not failing.

·Resulttop pick right 36/60, we claimed 51% · 607/1192 all-time

what actually happenedwe gave it 41% on average

·Over/under 2.5top pick right 32/60, we claimed 58% · 686/1192 all-time

what actually happenedwe gave it 51% on average

A well-calibrated model's average claim matches how often it happens. That is the number Rule 9 gates on, and it is tracked for results and goals alike whether or not a fixture ever produced a call.

What these numbers are. The model's own estimate of how likely each result is, from form, Elo, rest, shots and xG as they stood at 06:00 UK on match day. One bivariate Poisson produces all of them, so the result and the goals figures share one underlying view of the match. Each published figure is then calibrated against what actually happened in past matches, one market at a time — so they agree closely but are not forced to agree exactly. Market figures are the bookmaker's prices with their margin removed, so the two are comparable.

What they are not. Across 57,633 out-of-sample fixtures the market separated matches better than the model in every league, every season, every outcome and every confidence band — 24 slices, no exceptions, re-tested in August 2026 on the current model. This is a second opinion, not an edge. Where it earns its keep is honesty about its own confidence: when it says 74%, that happens about 74% of the time.

Why a call appears. Thresholds — home 70% · away 60% · over 60% · under 55% — sit where the model has historically been as good as its claim. Raising them would surface fewer calls and be less accurate about them, because its confidence above those levels is inflated everywhere except home wins. Draws are never flagged: the highest one ever rated was 62%.

34 rated · 0 not rated · model goals_v7_cal · built 2026-11-01 06:05 UK