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The data behind the ratings

Sunday 1 November 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

Amed v Eyüpspor

super-lig · 10:30 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	18
Position last season	—	15
Points this season	20	3
Goal difference this season	+10	-21
Elo rating going in	1,674	1,516
Matches on record, all seasons	9	79
Recent form
Points, last 5	13	0
Goals scored, last 5	2.6	0.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	3.4
Goals scored, last 10	—	0.5
Goals conceded, last 10	—	2.6
Clean sheets, last 10	3	0
Failed to score, last 10	1	8
Wins in a row	2	0
Unbeaten run	7	0
Losses in a row	0	6
Days since last match	8	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.5	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.4	14.4
Shots on target, last 5	5.4	4.6
Shots per possession	0.327	0.240
On-target shots per possession	0.113	0.080
Inside-box shots per possession	0.172	0.113
Share of shots from inside the box	52.0%	46.4%
Expected goals, last 5	2.01	0.90
Possession, last 5	46.0%	51.8%
Corners, last 5	4.2	5.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.194	0.265
On-target allowed per possession	0.070	0.104
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.108	0.165
Opponents' inside-box share	54.6%	60.0%
Save rate	67.3%	57.5%
Saves, last 5	2.2	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.81	2.39
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.0%	84.4%
Passes, last 5	371	422
Fouls, last 5	15.4	8.6
Cards, last 5	4.4	1.0

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 77.3% · Draw 14.7% · Away 8.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

PEC Zwolle v ADO Den Haag

eredivisie · 11:15 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	15	17
Position last season	15	—
Points this season	8	6
Goal difference this season	-12	-10
Elo rating going in	1,489	1,420
Matches on record, all seasons	448	394
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	2.6	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	2.3	2.3
Clean sheets, last 10	1	0
Failed to score, last 10	4	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	8	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.6	14.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	5.0
Shots per possession	0.259	0.252
On-target shots per possession	0.096	0.081
Inside-box shots per possession	0.162	0.159
Share of shots from inside the box	59.4%	63.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.27	1.91
Possession, last 5	42.6%	48.0%
Corners, last 5	4.6	3.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.323	0.319
On-target allowed per possession	0.109	0.131
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.208	0.213
Opponents' inside-box share	64.7%	67.8%
Save rate	65.5%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	3.8	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.77	2.16
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	380	396
Fouls, last 5	10.2	16.4
Cards, last 5	1.4	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	17
Home side won	10
Drawn	2
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	34
Goals, away side	22

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Como v Venezia

serie-a · 11:30 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	20
Position last season	4	—
Points this season	20	3
Goal difference this season	+9	-13
Elo rating going in	1,742	1,454
Matches on record, all seasons	85	85
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	3
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	0.4
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	2.1	0.8
Goals conceded, last 10	0.9	2.2
Clean sheets, last 10	2	1
Failed to score, last 10	2	5
Wins in a row	3	0
Unbeaten run	4	0
Losses in a row	0	2
Days since last match	5	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Scored away, last 5 there	2.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	18.8	15.2
Shots on target, last 5	6.2	4.6
Shots per possession	0.317	0.283
On-target shots per possession	0.105	0.092
Inside-box shots per possession	0.212	0.173
Share of shots from inside the box	67.1%	62.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.90	1.72
Possession, last 5	62.6%	46.2%
Corners, last 5	6.2	5.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.338	0.343
On-target allowed per possession	0.088	0.143
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.214	0.234
Opponents' inside-box share	62.5%	65.4%
Save rate	68.6%	65.5%
Saves, last 5	3.0	4.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.37	1.82
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	86.0%	86.0%
Passes, last 5	593	457
Fouls, last 5	8.8	8.6
Cards, last 5	1.8	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	0
Drawn	2
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	3
Goals, away side	3

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 72.8% · Draw 15.8% · Away 11.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Başakşehir v Samsunspor

super-lig · 13:00 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	12	17
Position last season	5	7
Points this season	11	4
Goal difference this season	-2	-13
Elo rating going in	1,677	1,599
Matches on record, all seasons	509	151
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	0
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	3.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	2.1
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	7
Days since last match	6	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	3.0
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.0	14.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	3.8
Shots per possession	0.236	0.243
On-target shots per possession	0.082	0.068
Inside-box shots per possession	0.143	0.145
Share of shots from inside the box	58.5%	57.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.32	0.94
Possession, last 5	48.2%	54.6%
Corners, last 5	3.4	6.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.257	0.393
On-target allowed per possession	0.087	0.143
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.152	0.250
Opponents' inside-box share	57.1%	62.9%
Save rate	69.8%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	2.2	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.51	1.68
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.0%	84.6%
Passes, last 5	409	495
Fouls, last 5	15.0	16.0
Cards, last 5	2.0	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	6
Drawn	1
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	17
Goals, away side	4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 53.8% · Draw 23.6% · Away 22.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Eldense v Granada CF

laliga-2 · 13:00 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	12	4
Position last season	—	14
Points this season	14	20
Goal difference this season	-2	+4
Elo rating going in	1,412	1,458
Matches on record, all seasons	95	601
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	12
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	4	1
Wins in a row	0	4
Unbeaten run	0	4
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	7	9
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.0	14.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.6	4.2
Shots per possession	0.244	0.305
On-target shots per possession	0.080	0.094
Inside-box shots per possession	0.147	0.203
Share of shots from inside the box	60.6%	65.7%
Expected goals, last 5	2.19	1.36
Possession, last 5	51.2%	49.4%
Corners, last 5	4.6	5.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.230	0.279
On-target allowed per possession	0.082	0.123
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.154	0.163
Opponents' inside-box share	68.8%	59.6%
Save rate	72.8%	73.6%
Saves, last 5	2.8	4.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.33	1.02
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	425	386
Fouls, last 5	13.4	11.2
Cards, last 5	3.0	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	0
Drawn	0
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	2
Goals, away side	6

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 40.4% · Draw 28.4% · Away 31.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Falkirk v Celtic

scottish-prem · 13:00 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	6	1
Position last season	6	1
Points this season	15	28
Goal difference this season	+1	+19
Elo rating going in	1,542	1,804
Matches on record, all seasons	49	606
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	2.6
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	2.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	0.8
Clean sheets, last 10	3	3
Failed to score, last 10	1	1
Wins in a row	3	0
Unbeaten run	3	4
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	4	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.0	18.4
Shots on target, last 5	5.2	7.6
Shots per possession	0.264	0.354
On-target shots per possession	0.089	0.156
Inside-box shots per possession	0.174	0.249
Share of shots from inside the box	65.1%	71.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.48	2.57
Possession, last 5	51.6%	57.0%
Corners, last 5	5.4	8.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.291	0.287
On-target allowed per possession	0.096	0.098
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.213	0.195
Opponents' inside-box share	71.9%	68.7%
Save rate	75.6%	74.5%
Saves, last 5	3.6	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.61	1.11
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	402	578
Fouls, last 5	14.2	12.8
Cards, last 5	1.4	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	5
Home side won	0
Drawn	0
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	2
Goals, away side	12

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 14.7% · Draw 19.1% · Away 66.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Getafe v Sevilla

la-liga · 13:00 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	17	6
Position last season	7	15
Points this season	9	17
Goal difference this season	-10	+0
Elo rating going in	1,571	1,600
Matches on record, all seasons	626	618
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	7
Goals scored, last 5	0.4	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	0.5	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	5	0
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	0.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.2	12.8
Shots on target, last 5	3.0	5.2
Shots per possession	0.291	0.296
On-target shots per possession	0.071	0.111
Inside-box shots per possession	0.140	0.183
Share of shots from inside the box	48.2%	60.4%
Expected goals, last 5	0.40	1.51
Possession, last 5	31.4%	40.0%
Corners, last 5	4.4	3.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.232	0.206
On-target allowed per possession	0.075	0.078
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.128	0.123
Opponents' inside-box share	58.2%	57.3%
Save rate	67.2%	65.2%
Saves, last 5	3.8	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.67	1.72
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	261	372
Fouls, last 5	15.6	13.6
Cards, last 5	4.8	2.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	30
Home side won	10
Drawn	4
Away side won	16
Goals, home side	29
Goals, away side	39

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 29.1% · Draw 31.8% · Away 39.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Trabzonspor v Gaziantep FK

super-lig · 13:00 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	14
Position last season	3	12
Points this season	19	8
Goal difference this season	+14	-6
Elo rating going in	1,756	1,530
Matches on record, all seasons	543	265
Recent form
Points, last 5	12	1
Goals scored, last 5	2.6	0.4
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	2.2	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	4	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	3
Wins in a row	4	0
Unbeaten run	4	0
Losses in a row	0	4
Days since last match	6	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.4	15.5
Shots on target, last 5	6.0	4.0
Shots per possession	0.263	0.256
On-target shots per possession	0.130	0.078
Inside-box shots per possession	0.199	0.158
Share of shots from inside the box	76.2%	61.3%
Expected goals, last 5	2.01	1.15
Possession, last 5	50.4%	54.0%
Corners, last 5	4.2	5.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.305	0.280
On-target allowed per possession	0.121	0.087
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.178	0.192
Opponents' inside-box share	59.0%	67.7%
Save rate	75.2%	58.4%
Saves, last 5	4.6	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.25	1.55
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	82.4%	84.8%
Passes, last 5	417	494
Fouls, last 5	11.0	10.8
Cards, last 5	2.2	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	14
Home side won	9
Drawn	5
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	29
Goals, away side	12

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 75.1% · Draw 14.7% · Away 10.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Excelsior v Twente

eredivisie · 13:30 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	12	4
Position last season	13	4
Points this season	11	20
Goal difference this season	-3	+9
Elo rating going in	1,492	1,684
Matches on record, all seasons	360	524
Recent form
Points, last 5	1	10
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	2.8	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	1.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.9	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	1
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	3	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	1.8
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	1.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	8.2	19.4
Shots on target, last 5	2.2	6.6
Shots per possession	0.247	0.358
On-target shots per possession	0.089	0.118
Inside-box shots per possession	0.180	0.241
Share of shots from inside the box	75.2%	66.7%
Expected goals, last 5	0.98	1.54
Possession, last 5	45.8%	54.0%
Corners, last 5	2.6	7.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.257	0.268
On-target allowed per possession	0.095	0.095
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.185	0.160
Opponents' inside-box share	70.6%	62.6%
Save rate	63.4%	71.1%
Saves, last 5	4.2	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.96	1.14
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	436	490
Fouls, last 5	10.8	13.6
Cards, last 5	1.2	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	18
Home side won	5
Drawn	6
Away side won	7
Goals, home side	18
Goals, away side	26

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 17.4% · Draw 21.5% · Away 61.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Telstar v Utrecht

eredivisie · 13:30 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	16	10
Position last season	14	6
Points this season	6	12
Goal difference this season	-9	-10
Elo rating going in	1,517	1,634
Matches on record, all seasons	50	575
Recent form
Points, last 5	2	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	2.1	2.7
Clean sheets, last 10	1	0
Failed to score, last 10	4	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	3
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	9	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	3.0
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.0	16.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	4.8
Shots per possession	0.250	0.301
On-target shots per possession	0.068	0.098
Inside-box shots per possession	0.161	0.208
Share of shots from inside the box	68.9%	69.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.80	1.43
Possession, last 5	50.0%	48.4%
Corners, last 5	4.8	4.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.303	0.306
On-target allowed per possession	0.129	0.121
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.209	0.200
Opponents' inside-box share	71.4%	68.0%
Save rate	67.4%	61.0%
Saves, last 5	4.6	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.12	0.99
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	463	446
Fouls, last 5	9.4	13.6
Cards, last 5	1.0	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	0
Drawn	1
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	2
Goals, away side	5

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 32.8% · Draw 25.8% · Away 41.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Frosinone v Torino

serie-a · 14:00 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	6	8
Position last season	—	13
Points this season	17	13
Goal difference this season	+8	+0
Elo rating going in	1,525	1,593
Matches on record, all seasons	123	541
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	10
Goals scored, last 5	3.0	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	2.2	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	2	1
Failed to score, last 10	3	1
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	3	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	3	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.8	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.2	2.0
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	22.0	12.6
Shots on target, last 5	7.2	4.4
Shots per possession	0.413	0.237
On-target shots per possession	0.137	0.087
Inside-box shots per possession	0.255	0.146
Share of shots from inside the box	62.0%	60.8%
Expected goals, last 5	2.06	1.54
Possession, last 5	48.0%	45.2%
Corners, last 5	7.0	4.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.349	0.308
On-target allowed per possession	0.117	0.088
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.234	0.224
Opponents' inside-box share	66.8%	70.9%
Save rate	69.6%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	4.8	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.52	1.19
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	73.0%	80.0%
Passes, last 5	350	409
Fouls, last 5	12.2	10.0
Cards, last 5	1.4	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	0
Drawn	2
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	6
Goals, away side	11

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 44.7% · Draw 24.6% · Away 30.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Lazio v Cagliari

serie-a · 14:00 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	9
Position last season	9	14
Points this season	25	13
Goal difference this season	+15	-5
Elo rating going in	1,728	1,573
Matches on record, all seasons	617	541
Recent form
Points, last 5	15	4
Goals scored, last 5	3.2	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	2.4	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	0.8	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	4	3
Failed to score, last 10	0	3
Wins in a row	5	0
Unbeaten run	10	0
Losses in a row	0	3
Days since last match	5	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	2.8	1.2
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.6	1.8
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.8	9.6
Shots on target, last 5	5.0	3.6
Shots per possession	0.270	0.268
On-target shots per possession	0.100	0.104
Inside-box shots per possession	0.158	0.170
Share of shots from inside the box	58.5%	65.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.84	1.38
Possession, last 5	57.0%	42.8%
Corners, last 5	5.0	3.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.246	0.308
On-target allowed per possession	0.088	0.092
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.162	0.192
Opponents' inside-box share	65.6%	59.3%
Save rate	77.8%	72.2%
Saves, last 5	3.4	4.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.25	2.12
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	87.0%	82.0%
Passes, last 5	550	415
Fouls, last 5	8.6	12.6
Cards, last 5	1.4	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	28
Home side won	22
Drawn	4
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	55
Goals, away side	19

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 66.8% · Draw 20.2% · Away 13.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Sheffield Wednesday v Blackpool

league-one · 14:00 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	9	20
Position last season	24	13
Points this season	19	11
Goal difference this season	+8	-4
Elo rating going in	1,364	1,384
Matches on record, all seasons	712	688
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	3
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.9	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	1.9
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	4	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	5	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.6	2.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.6	2.0
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.6	10.8
Shots on target, last 5	5.8	3.8
Shots per possession	0.256	0.284
On-target shots per possession	0.098	0.096
Inside-box shots per possession	0.180	0.183
Share of shots from inside the box	69.7%	62.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.56	0.88
Possession, last 5	61.0%	48.4%
Corners, last 5	4.2	5.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.351	0.385
On-target allowed per possession	0.097	0.135
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.245	0.254
Opponents' inside-box share	68.4%	65.5%
Save rate	63.5%	71.7%
Saves, last 5	2.8	4.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.54	1.77
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	508	360
Fouls, last 5	10.2	11.8
Cards, last 5	2.2	2.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	3
Drawn	1
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	4
Goals, away side	4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 54.7% · Draw 22.9% · Away 22.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Strasbourg v Auxerre

ligue-1 · 14:00 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	16	12
Position last season	8	15
Points this season	7	10
Goal difference this season	-6	-6
Elo rating going in	1,605	1,528
Matches on record, all seasons	327	192
Recent form
Points, last 5	1	10
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.9	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	2.3	1.9
Clean sheets, last 10	0	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	0
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	2
Losses in a row	4	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.6	12.0
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	5.4
Shots per possession	0.283	0.256
On-target shots per possession	0.118	0.113
Inside-box shots per possession	0.190	0.168
Share of shots from inside the box	64.4%	63.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.02	1.95
Possession, last 5	45.4%	46.8%
Corners, last 5	2.6	5.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.330	0.258
On-target allowed per possession	0.118	0.104
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.222	0.182
Opponents' inside-box share	67.6%	69.5%
Save rate	67.1%	64.9%
Saves, last 5	3.4	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.03	1.81
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	460	398
Fouls, last 5	11.6	15.2
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	4
Drawn	1
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	9
Goals, away side	2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 52.4% · Draw 23.8% · Away 23.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Union Berlin v 1. FC Köln

bundesliga · 14:30 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	17	11
Position last season	11	14
Points this season	6	8
Goal difference this season	-12	-3
Elo rating going in	1,524	1,477
Matches on record, all seasons	247	417
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	5
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	2.1	2.1
Clean sheets, last 10	3	1
Failed to score, last 10	3	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	3	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	8	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	3.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.8	15.0
Shots on target, last 5	3.4	5.2
Shots per possession	0.274	0.310
On-target shots per possession	0.099	0.105
Inside-box shots per possession	0.181	0.214
Share of shots from inside the box	63.6%	68.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.24	1.15
Possession, last 5	42.0%	51.2%
Corners, last 5	3.8	5.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.279	0.280
On-target allowed per possession	0.104	0.104
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.180	0.193
Opponents' inside-box share	67.2%	69.2%
Save rate	59.6%	63.1%
Saves, last 5	4.0	4.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.20	1.23
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	358	465
Fouls, last 5	11.2	11.6
Cards, last 5	3.0	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	12
Home side won	8
Drawn	3
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	19
Goals, away side	10

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 34.6% · Draw 27.4% · Away 38.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

AD Ceuta FC v Sporting Gijon

laliga-2 · 15:15 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	21	7
Position last season	9	9
Points this season	5	19
Goal difference this season	-15	-2
Elo rating going in	1,412	1,474
Matches on record, all seasons	53	545
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	9
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	2.0	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	0	3
Failed to score, last 10	3	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	3	1
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	1.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	3.0	1.4
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	21.4	11.2
Shots on target, last 5	5.6	3.8
Shots per possession	0.330	0.220
On-target shots per possession	0.085	0.076
Inside-box shots per possession	0.223	0.139
Share of shots from inside the box	64.6%	60.6%
Expected goals, last 5	2.12	0.72
Possession, last 5	56.2%	49.6%
Corners, last 5	8.4	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.238	0.215
On-target allowed per possession	0.091	0.074
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.150	0.115
Opponents' inside-box share	61.6%	54.3%
Save rate	58.5%	64.3%
Saves, last 5	2.4	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.76	0.96
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	427	465
Fouls, last 5	11.0	12.8
Cards, last 5	2.6	3.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	1
Drawn	0
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	2
Goals, away side	2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 38.1% · Draw 26.7% · Away 35.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Racing Santander v Real Madrid

la-liga · 15:15 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	11	3
Position last season	1	2
Points this season	11	24
Goal difference this season	-11	+15
Elo rating going in	1,554	1,858
Matches on record, all seasons	298	618
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	12
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	2.2
Goals conceded, last 5	3.4	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	2.5
Goals conceded, last 10	2.6	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	0	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	1
Wins in a row	1	3
Unbeaten run	1	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.2	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.6	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.4
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.6	12.8
Shots on target, last 5	5.8	4.8
Shots per possession	0.251	0.298
On-target shots per possession	0.099	0.128
Inside-box shots per possession	0.151	0.208
Share of shots from inside the box	61.1%	69.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.39	1.94
Possession, last 5	51.0%	46.4%
Corners, last 5	4.8	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.315	0.269
On-target allowed per possession	0.122	0.093
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.205	0.152
Opponents' inside-box share	63.9%	56.3%
Save rate	60.1%	71.8%
Saves, last 5	2.4	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.92	0.90
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	464	455
Fouls, last 5	11.6	8.6
Cards, last 5	3.2	3.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	0
Drawn	1
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	2
Goals, away side	13

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 9.4% · Draw 12.0% · Away 78.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Arouca v Nacional

primeira-liga · 15:30 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	5	15
Position last season	9	14
Points this season	17	7
Goal difference this season	+5	-8
Elo rating going in	1,617	1,470
Matches on record, all seasons	313	367
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	3
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	2.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	0.8	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	5	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	3
Wins in a row	2	1
Unbeaten run	3	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.2	9.6
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	3.4
Shots per possession	0.223	0.211
On-target shots per possession	0.074	0.074
Inside-box shots per possession	0.131	0.118
Share of shots from inside the box	59.0%	52.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.42	0.90
Possession, last 5	54.0%	43.6%
Corners, last 5	3.4	4.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.285	0.281
On-target allowed per possession	0.081	0.109
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.173	0.158
Opponents' inside-box share	60.2%	56.0%
Save rate	75.7%	65.4%
Saves, last 5	3.0	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.95	1.71
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	493	364
Fouls, last 5	12.8	12.0
Cards, last 5	3.2	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	12
Home side won	7
Drawn	4
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	21
Goals, away side	11

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 54.7% · Draw 24.7% · Away 20.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Groningen v Sparta Rotterdam

eredivisie · 15:45 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	8	14
Position last season	9	10
Points this season	15	9
Goal difference this season	+3	-7
Elo rating going in	1,545	1,516
Matches on record, all seasons	530	314
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	4
Goals scored, last 5	2.6	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	3.0
Goals scored, last 10	2.4	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	2.1	2.4
Clean sheets, last 10	1	0
Failed to score, last 10	0	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.6
Scored away, last 5 there	2.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.0	14.4
Shots on target, last 5	5.2	5.4
Shots per possession	0.282	0.331
On-target shots per possession	0.114	0.125
Inside-box shots per possession	0.191	0.241
Share of shots from inside the box	67.5%	71.9%
Expected goals, last 5	2.19	2.13
Possession, last 5	48.0%	39.6%
Corners, last 5	4.0	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.312	0.312
On-target allowed per possession	0.125	0.098
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.228	0.204
Opponents' inside-box share	70.4%	64.6%
Save rate	63.0%	63.1%
Saves, last 5	3.4	4.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.24	1.33
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	423	349
Fouls, last 5	10.6	9.8
Cards, last 5	1.2	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	16
Home side won	5
Drawn	3
Away side won	8
Goals, home side	20
Goals, away side	25

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 54.1% · Draw 22.6% · Away 23.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Kasımpaşa v Beşiktaş

super-lig · 16:00 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	5	4
Position last season	13	4
Points this season	16	18
Goal difference this season	+4	+8
Elo rating going in	1,625	1,723
Matches on record, all seasons	503	543
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	9
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	2.0
Goals conceded, last 10	0.9	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	4	3
Failed to score, last 10	1	2
Wins in a row	2	1
Unbeaten run	2	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	8	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.2	18.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.2	6.6
Shots per possession	0.277	0.297
On-target shots per possession	0.093	0.109
Inside-box shots per possession	0.146	0.184
Share of shots from inside the box	52.4%	61.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.09	1.94
Possession, last 5	47.8%	65.6%
Corners, last 5	6.0	7.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.246	0.276
On-target allowed per possession	0.081	0.109
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.155	0.157
Opponents' inside-box share	60.4%	50.9%
Save rate	76.8%	68.3%
Saves, last 5	4.6	4.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.25	1.22
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	79.4%	87.8%
Passes, last 5	370	546
Fouls, last 5	16.0	11.0
Cards, last 5	2.6	2.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	28
Home side won	9
Drawn	5
Away side won	14
Goals, home side	46
Goals, away side	57

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 16.9% · Draw 22.0% · Away 61.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Lyon v Angers

ligue-1 · 16:15 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	5	14
Position last season	4	13
Points this season	14	8
Goal difference this season	+6	-6
Elo rating going in	1,668	1,472
Matches on record, all seasons	594	370
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	3	3
Failed to score, last 10	3	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	6	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.8	9.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	3.0
Shots per possession	0.241	0.268
On-target shots per possession	0.090	0.073
Inside-box shots per possession	0.163	0.174
Share of shots from inside the box	67.5%	64.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.12	1.29
Possession, last 5	44.2%	50.2%
Corners, last 5	3.0	4.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.266	0.311
On-target allowed per possession	0.099	0.110
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.181	0.203
Opponents' inside-box share	65.8%	65.6%
Save rate	70.5%	70.1%
Saves, last 5	4.6	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.34	2.43
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	434	451
Fouls, last 5	11.6	12.4
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	19
Home side won	14
Drawn	3
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	42
Goals, away side	15

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 68.8% · Draw 18.3% · Away 12.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Paris FC v Monaco

ligue-1 · 16:15 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	2
Position last season	11	7
Points this season	14	15
Goal difference this season	+4	+4
Elo rating going in	1,614	1,676
Matches on record, all seasons	42	518
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	6
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.6	14.6
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	4.6
Shots per possession	0.277	0.247
On-target shots per possession	0.097	0.093
Inside-box shots per possession	0.192	0.145
Share of shots from inside the box	67.9%	59.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.69	1.37
Possession, last 5	53.0%	57.6%
Corners, last 5	4.0	4.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.193	0.241
On-target allowed per possession	0.070	0.084
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.128	0.141
Opponents' inside-box share	67.4%	60.9%
Save rate	66.7%	68.3%
Saves, last 5	2.0	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.69	1.33
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	565	601
Fouls, last 5	15.8	13.6
Cards, last 5	3.2	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	2
Drawn	0
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	5
Goals, away side	1

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 38.3% · Draw 27.4% · Away 34.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Eintracht Frankfurt v Hamburger SV

bundesliga · 16:30 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	13	10
Position last season	8	13
Points this season	8	9
Goal difference this season	-7	-10
Elo rating going in	1,581	1,506
Matches on record, all seasons	517	317
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	9
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	2.4	2.0
Clean sheets, last 10	1	1
Failed to score, last 10	2	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	1
Days since last match	8	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	0.8
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.8	2.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.4	11.8
Shots on target, last 5	5.4	3.8
Shots per possession	0.248	0.291
On-target shots per possession	0.103	0.095
Inside-box shots per possession	0.172	0.162
Share of shots from inside the box	67.3%	52.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.42	1.07
Possession, last 5	47.2%	37.8%
Corners, last 5	4.4	4.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.320	0.289
On-target allowed per possession	0.138	0.099
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.225	0.187
Opponents' inside-box share	69.8%	61.9%
Save rate	67.1%	67.1%
Saves, last 5	4.0	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.16	1.34
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	406	314
Fouls, last 5	10.8	13.6
Cards, last 5	2.2	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	16
Home side won	7
Drawn	6
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	23
Goals, away side	15

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 62.2% · Draw 20.3% · Away 17.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Liverpool v Arsenal

premier-league · 16:30 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	2
Position last season	5	1
Points this season	15	21
Goal difference this season	+3	+8
Elo rating going in	1,829	1,941
Matches on record, all seasons	616	616
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	12
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	0.6
Clean sheets, last 10	4	6
Failed to score, last 10	2	1
Wins in a row	2	3
Unbeaten run	2	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.0	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.2	0.4
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.6	12.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.2	3.6
Shots per possession	0.306	0.228
On-target shots per possession	0.100	0.076
Inside-box shots per possession	0.184	0.160
Share of shots from inside the box	59.7%	71.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.17	1.89
Possession, last 5	48.2%	61.6%
Corners, last 5	5.2	6.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.280	0.261
On-target allowed per possession	0.083	0.068
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.185	0.150
Opponents' inside-box share	66.0%	55.9%
Save rate	65.5%	71.7%
Saves, last 5	1.6	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.22	0.74
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	419	512
Fouls, last 5	13.8	10.6
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	12
Drawn	13
Away side won	7
Goals, home side	65
Goals, away side	46

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 32.7% · Draw 28.2% · Away 39.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Lecce v Genoa

serie-a · 17:00 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	14	13
Position last season	17	16
Points this season	9	10
Goal difference this season	-9	-5
Elo rating going in	1,520	1,566
Matches on record, all seasons	275	579
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	9
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	2.4	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	0.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.9	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	4	4
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	0	2
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	3	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.6	10.4
Shots on target, last 5	5.8	3.2
Shots per possession	0.304	0.239
On-target shots per possession	0.127	0.060
Inside-box shots per possession	0.206	0.166
Share of shots from inside the box	65.6%	67.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.45	0.82
Possession, last 5	40.6%	42.2%
Corners, last 5	5.0	3.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.256	0.268
On-target allowed per possession	0.102	0.077
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.174	0.159
Opponents' inside-box share	70.1%	56.9%
Save rate	65.0%	73.2%
Saves, last 5	2.0	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.73	1.17
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	82.0%	85.0%
Passes, last 5	311	368
Fouls, last 5	14.0	9.4
Cards, last 5	1.8	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	12
Home side won	2
Drawn	5
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	12
Goals, away side	17

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 27.5% · Draw 31.8% · Away 40.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Burgos v Castellón

laliga-2 · 17:30 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	5	1
Position last season	7	6
Points this season	20	26
Goal difference this season	+4	+18
Elo rating going in	1,532	1,551
Matches on record, all seasons	221	139
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	0.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	2.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	0.4
Clean sheets, last 10	3	6
Failed to score, last 10	3	2
Wins in a row	2	2
Unbeaten run	2	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	6	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.8	14.2
Shots on target, last 5	5.2	4.8
Shots per possession	0.247	0.243
On-target shots per possession	0.088	0.086
Inside-box shots per possession	0.166	0.149
Share of shots from inside the box	69.3%	62.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.64	1.65
Possession, last 5	46.6%	59.0%
Corners, last 5	4.4	4.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.274	0.281
On-target allowed per possession	0.086	0.091
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.174	0.185
Opponents' inside-box share	63.4%	60.3%
Save rate	75.3%	77.6%
Saves, last 5	4.6	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.54	1.19
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	365	533
Fouls, last 5	11.8	11.2
Cards, last 5	2.6	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	0
Drawn	1
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	2
Goals, away side	7

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 25.0% · Draw 29.0% · Away 45.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Elche v Valencia

la-liga · 17:30 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	12	19
Position last season	13	9
Points this season	10	6
Goal difference this season	-3	-10
Elo rating going in	1,576	1,581
Matches on record, all seasons	452	618
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	0.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	3	3
Failed to score, last 10	3	5
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	4	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	8	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.2	13.4
Shots on target, last 5	4.2	3.6
Shots per possession	0.226	0.242
On-target shots per possession	0.095	0.067
Inside-box shots per possession	0.129	0.161
Share of shots from inside the box	55.0%	64.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.26	1.46
Possession, last 5	48.2%	46.4%
Corners, last 5	3.6	4.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.300	0.287
On-target allowed per possession	0.090	0.090
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.198	0.172
Opponents' inside-box share	65.5%	58.9%
Save rate	64.1%	67.7%
Saves, last 5	3.2	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.39	1.17
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	450	403
Fouls, last 5	13.4	13.0
Cards, last 5	3.0	3.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	12
Home side won	3
Drawn	2
Away side won	7
Goals, home side	11
Goals, away side	20

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 41.0% · Draw 28.1% · Away 30.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Academico Viseu v Rio Ave

primeira-liga · 18:00 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	6	17
Position last season	—	13
Points this season	17	7
Goal difference this season	+2	-13
Elo rating going in	1,654	1,522
Matches on record, all seasons	9	505
Recent form
Points, last 5	15	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	0.6	2.8
Goals scored, last 10	—	0.9
Goals conceded, last 10	—	2.2
Clean sheets, last 10	2	1
Failed to score, last 10	2	6
Wins in a row	5	0
Unbeaten run	5	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	3.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.8	8.0
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	4.2
Shots per possession	0.223	0.160
On-target shots per possession	0.080	0.064
Inside-box shots per possession	0.146	0.066
Share of shots from inside the box	64.1%	44.9%
Expected goals, last 5	0.83	1.20
Possession, last 5	41.2%	49.2%
Corners, last 5	2.0	4.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.322	0.315
On-target allowed per possession	0.102	0.108
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.228	0.208
Opponents' inside-box share	70.7%	66.1%
Save rate	73.8%	61.4%
Saves, last 5	5.2	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.74	1.50
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	352	404
Fouls, last 5	14.2	12.2
Cards, last 5	3.2	2.2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 51.0% · Draw 26.4% · Away 22.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Maritimo v Santa Clara

primeira-liga · 18:00 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	13	4
Position last season	—	12
Points this season	8	18
Goal difference this season	-10	+7
Elo rating going in	1,480	1,610
Matches on record, all seasons	437	247
Recent form
Points, last 5	1	10
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	2.8	0.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	2.0	0.7
Clean sheets, last 10	1	5
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	2	1
Days since last match	9	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	8.4	13.0
Shots on target, last 5	2.4	4.0
Shots per possession	0.248	0.286
On-target shots per possession	0.079	0.076
Inside-box shots per possession	0.149	0.165
Share of shots from inside the box	59.0%	56.9%
Expected goals, last 5	0.41	1.14
Possession, last 5	45.2%	48.4%
Corners, last 5	3.6	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.269	0.169
On-target allowed per possession	0.106	0.053
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.185	0.096
Opponents' inside-box share	68.8%	57.1%
Save rate	64.1%	76.4%
Saves, last 5	3.4	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.00	1.17
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	366	408
Fouls, last 5	15.4	13.4
Cards, last 5	2.0	3.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	5
Drawn	2
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	16
Goals, away side	12

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 26.0% · Draw 31.5% · Away 42.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Juventus v Napoli

serie-a · 19:45 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	8	6
Position last season	6	2
Points this season	14	14
Goal difference this season	+1	+6
Elo rating going in	1,724	1,749
Matches on record, all seasons	617	617
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	8
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	2.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	4	4
Failed to score, last 10	2	1
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	2
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	4	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	1.8
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	1.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.0	18.4
Shots on target, last 5	4.6	7.8
Shots per possession	0.273	0.294
On-target shots per possession	0.087	0.112
Inside-box shots per possession	0.158	0.207
Share of shots from inside the box	59.7%	65.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.29	2.29
Possession, last 5	60.6%	57.0%
Corners, last 5	6.0	5.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.230	0.322
On-target allowed per possession	0.073	0.087
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.145	0.193
Opponents' inside-box share	60.1%	59.2%
Save rate	61.4%	68.9%
Saves, last 5	1.2	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.75	1.16
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	89.0%	89.0%
Passes, last 5	592	549
Fouls, last 5	9.0	7.0
Cards, last 5	0.6	0.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	14
Drawn	6
Away side won	12
Goals, home side	48
Goals, away side	42

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 40.1% · Draw 29.2% · Away 30.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Marseille v Toulouse

ligue-1 · 19:45 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	8	11
Position last season	5	9
Points this season	12	10
Goal difference this season	+5	+1
Elo rating going in	1,645	1,572
Matches on record, all seasons	594	520
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	9
Goals scored, last 5	2.4	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	2.2	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	3	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	4
Wins in a row	3	0
Unbeaten run	3	5
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.8	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.8	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.4	11.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	4.2
Shots per possession	0.261	0.241
On-target shots per possession	0.102	0.086
Inside-box shots per possession	0.172	0.169
Share of shots from inside the box	67.3%	69.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.92	1.40
Possession, last 5	52.8%	52.8%
Corners, last 5	4.0	3.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.366	0.246
On-target allowed per possession	0.114	0.066
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.256	0.147
Opponents' inside-box share	69.4%	53.7%
Save rate	69.0%	69.2%
Saves, last 5	4.2	1.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.14	0.88
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	524	544
Fouls, last 5	12.8	15.8
Cards, last 5	2.0	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	28
Home side won	16
Drawn	11
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	55
Goals, away side	23

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 49.3% · Draw 24.1% · Away 26.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Athletic Club v Real Sociedad

la-liga · 20:00 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	7	5
Position last season	12	10
Points this season	12	19
Goal difference this season	+3	+1
Elo rating going in	1,618	1,633
Matches on record, all seasons	617	618
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	12
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	2.6
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	5	1
Failed to score, last 10	3	3
Wins in a row	1	4
Unbeaten run	1	4
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.8	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.8	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.8	15.8
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	5.0
Shots per possession	0.268	0.289
On-target shots per possession	0.075	0.105
Inside-box shots per possession	0.170	0.176
Share of shots from inside the box	63.5%	58.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.12	2.10
Possession, last 5	64.4%	51.4%
Corners, last 5	5.8	5.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.216	0.306
On-target allowed per possession	0.080	0.114
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.148	0.195
Opponents' inside-box share	59.7%	62.5%
Save rate	70.0%	71.4%
Saves, last 5	1.6	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.32	1.27
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	589	489
Fouls, last 5	12.2	12.4
Cards, last 5	2.2	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	10
Drawn	9
Away side won	13
Goals, home side	36
Goals, away side	41

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 44.8% · Draw 26.1% · Away 29.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Tenerife v FC Andorra

laliga-2 · 20:00 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	13	19
Position last season	—	13
Points this season	14	9
Goal difference this season	-2	-5
Elo rating going in	1,406	1,412
Matches on record, all seasons	397	136
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	6
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	2.0
Clean sheets, last 10	2	1
Failed to score, last 10	2	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	3	0
Losses in a row	0	2
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.4	12.2
Shots on target, last 5	2.8	6.2
Shots per possession	0.253	0.264
On-target shots per possession	0.068	0.105
Inside-box shots per possession	0.142	0.163
Share of shots from inside the box	56.2%	61.0%
Expected goals, last 5	0.63	1.59
Possession, last 5	42.8%	56.4%
Corners, last 5	4.8	6.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.190	0.301
On-target allowed per possession	0.053	0.116
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.112	0.176
Opponents' inside-box share	56.6%	59.3%
Save rate	58.2%	57.8%
Saves, last 5	2.6	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.01	1.20
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	333	472
Fouls, last 5	13.8	19.4
Cards, last 5	3.0	3.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	1
Drawn	2
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	2
Goals, away side	2

SC Braga v Famalicao

primeira-liga · 20:30 UK

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	9	11
Position last season	4	5
Points this season	11	10
Goal difference this season	-2	+3
Elo rating going in	1,695	1,636
Matches on record, all seasons	537	247
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	8
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	2.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	3	4
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	3	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	2.2
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	0.8
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.2	11.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	4.0
Shots per possession	0.231	0.195
On-target shots per possession	0.069	0.064
Inside-box shots per possession	0.144	0.093
Share of shots from inside the box	62.2%	47.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.54	1.05
Possession, last 5	58.0%	48.6%
Corners, last 5	4.8	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.223	0.254
On-target allowed per possession	0.082	0.069
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.126	0.172
Opponents' inside-box share	55.4%	64.9%
Save rate	64.7%	65.4%
Saves, last 5	1.8	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.01	1.79
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	551	418
Fouls, last 5	11.6	11.8
Cards, last 5	1.8	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	14
Home side won	5
Drawn	7
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	27
Goals, away side	20

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 55.6% · Draw 26.4% · Away 18.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.