Latest · All reports · The data behind it · This day's report

The data behind the ratings

Saturday 8 August 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

Dundee v Aberdeen

scottish-prem · 14:00 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	8	2
Position last season	8	9
Points this season	0	3
Goal difference this season	-1	+1
Elo rating going in	1,475	1,488
Matches on record, all seasons	385	598
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	3	2
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	5	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.0	10.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	2.6
Shots per possession	0.212	0.210
On-target shots per possession	0.076	0.055
Inside-box shots per possession	0.144	0.136
Share of shots from inside the box	68.5%	65.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.04	1.39
Possession, last 5	44.4%	50.8%
Corners, last 5	5.0	3.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.285	0.214
On-target allowed per possession	0.105	0.073
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.170	0.136
Opponents' inside-box share	57.4%	61.0%
Save rate	67.6%	63.9%
Saves, last 5	3.4	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.87	1.32
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	76.0%	73.2%
Passes, last 5	380	408
Fouls, last 5	10.2	12.0
Cards, last 5	1.2	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	34
Home side won	4
Drawn	7
Away side won	23
Goals, home side	29
Goals, away side	71

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 34.7% · Draw 28.2% · Away 37.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

ST Mirren v ST Johnstone

scottish-prem · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	2
Position last season	11	—
Points this season	3	3
Goal difference this season	+2	+1
Elo rating going in	1,480	1,411
Matches on record, all seasons	486	562
Recent form
Points, last 5	11	6
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	0.4	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	0.9	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	4	2
Failed to score, last 10	4	5
Wins in a row	2	1
Unbeaten run	5	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.7	15.2
Shots on target, last 5	6.0	3.6
Shots per possession	0.235	0.249
On-target shots per possession	0.086	0.069
Inside-box shots per possession	0.154	0.151
Share of shots from inside the box	65.3%	55.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.37	1.76
Possession, last 5	44.3%	59.2%
Corners, last 5	6.0	4.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.165	0.281
On-target allowed per possession	0.055	0.094
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.105	0.167
Opponents' inside-box share	62.2%	61.7%
Save rate	69.2%	68.2%
Saves, last 5	1.3	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.53	0.79
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	75.3%	80.6%
Passes, last 5	390	447
Fouls, last 5	13.0	9.8
Cards, last 5	1.8	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	38
Home side won	11
Drawn	10
Away side won	17
Goals, home side	35
Goals, away side	42

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 40.0% · Draw 29.4% · Away 30.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Maritimo v Casa Pia

primeira-liga · 14:30 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	—	16
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,471	1,538
Matches on record, all seasons	428	138
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	8
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	0.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	0.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	0.9
Clean sheets, last 10	1	4
Failed to score, last 10	1	4
Wins in a row	1	1
Unbeaten run	1	4
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	1,154	72
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.8	0.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.2	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.4	10.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	4.6
Shots per possession	0.304	0.287
On-target shots per possession	0.104	0.100
Inside-box shots per possession	0.186	0.190
Share of shots from inside the box	64.9%	66.0%
Expected goals, last 5	—	1.22
Possession, last 5	52.6%	39.4%
Corners, last 5	5.2	5.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.259	0.185
On-target allowed per possession	0.077	0.049
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.172	0.109
Opponents' inside-box share	63.1%	55.8%
Save rate	59.1%	75.4%
Saves, last 5	1.8	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	—	0.91
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	79.0%	69.6%
Passes, last 5	435	274
Fouls, last 5	16.2	16.8
Cards, last 5	5.0	4.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	0
Drawn	0
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	1
Goals, away side	4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 42.8% · Draw 30.0% · Away 27.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

NEC Nijmegen v Telstar

eredivisie · 14:30 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	3	14
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,623	1,557
Matches on record, all seasons	381	40
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	2.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.8	2.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	0	2
Wins in a row	1	2
Unbeaten run	1	4
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	83	83
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.0	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	2.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	21.0	10.6
Shots on target, last 5	6.4	4.8
Shots per possession	0.371	0.268
On-target shots per possession	0.128	0.122
Inside-box shots per possession	0.232	0.199
Share of shots from inside the box	61.4%	73.4%
Expected goals, last 5	2.31	1.41
Possession, last 5	57.6%	46.2%
Corners, last 5	8.2	3.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.239	0.312
On-target allowed per possession	0.124	0.118
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.165	0.213
Opponents' inside-box share	71.6%	68.4%
Save rate	73.5%	71.7%
Saves, last 5	3.8	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.21	1.45
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	79.6%	74.2%
Passes, last 5	412	337
Fouls, last 5	13.4	12.0
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	0
Drawn	2
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	3
Goals, away side	3

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 64.6% · Draw 19.5% · Away 15.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

GO Ahead Eagles v Willem II

eredivisie · 16:45 UK

Finished 4–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	12	—
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,546	1,400
Matches on record, all seasons	274	372
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	5
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	5	0
Failed to score, last 10	3	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	2	1
Days since last match	83	433
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.0	14.6
Shots on target, last 5	3.2	5.2
Shots per possession	0.235	0.244
On-target shots per possession	0.097	0.083
Inside-box shots per possession	0.169	0.159
Share of shots from inside the box	74.1%	61.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.14	1.64
Possession, last 5	46.4%	49.8%
Corners, last 5	6.0	6.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.424	0.299
On-target allowed per possession	0.114	0.093
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.275	0.219
Opponents' inside-box share	65.0%	73.1%
Save rate	75.8%	67.2%
Saves, last 5	5.2	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.37	2.72
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	78.0%	75.6%
Passes, last 5	361	397
Fouls, last 5	8.2	13.0
Cards, last 5	2.0	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	4
Drawn	0
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	7
Goals, away side	6

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 60.9% · Draw 22.3% · Away 16.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Guimaraes v Arouca

primeira-liga · 17:00 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	8	9
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,598	1,581
Matches on record, all seasons	528	304
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	10
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	4	2
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	0	3
Losses in a row	3	0
Days since last match	84	84
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.6	12.6
Shots on target, last 5	3.4	4.2
Shots per possession	0.238	0.246
On-target shots per possession	0.078	0.078
Inside-box shots per possession	0.130	0.148
Share of shots from inside the box	55.3%	58.2%
Expected goals, last 5	0.96	1.13
Possession, last 5	57.6%	54.6%
Corners, last 5	5.0	3.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.227	0.235
On-target allowed per possession	0.102	0.070
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.147	0.151
Opponents' inside-box share	65.6%	62.0%
Save rate	66.7%	64.9%
Saves, last 5	4.0	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.57	1.11
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.4%	85.0%
Passes, last 5	440	460
Fouls, last 5	12.0	14.2
Cards, last 5	2.6	3.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	18
Home side won	8
Drawn	6
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	29
Goals, away side	25

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 49.7% · Draw 26.3% · Away 24.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

PSV Eindhoven v Fortuna Sittard

eredivisie · 18:00 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	1	11
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,849	1,503
Matches on record, all seasons	536	264
Recent form
Points, last 5	13	4
Goals scored, last 5	3.8	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	3.1	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	2.0
Clean sheets, last 10	1	0
Failed to score, last 10	0	2
Wins in a row	2	0
Unbeaten run	6	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	83	83
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	3.8	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.8	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.8
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.8	11.6
Shots on target, last 5	7.0	3.6
Shots per possession	0.284	0.291
On-target shots per possession	0.132	0.108
Inside-box shots per possession	0.201	0.181
Share of shots from inside the box	70.0%	62.7%
Expected goals, last 5	2.05	0.92
Possession, last 5	58.2%	44.0%
Corners, last 5	5.6	3.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.324	0.258
On-target allowed per possession	0.130	0.100
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.222	0.178
Opponents' inside-box share	66.9%	67.9%
Save rate	68.6%	60.4%
Saves, last 5	3.4	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.09	1.94
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	87.0%	76.8%
Passes, last 5	524	364
Fouls, last 5	10.0	9.6
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	15
Home side won	13
Drawn	2
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	48
Goals, away side	13

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 81.8% · Draw 10.9% · Away 7.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

AZ Alkmaar v ADO Den Haag

eredivisie · 19:00 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	7	—
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,638	1,428
Matches on record, all seasons	549	384
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	1
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	2.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	2.3
Clean sheets, last 10	4	0
Failed to score, last 10	3	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	6	0
Losses in a row	0	4
Days since last match	83	448
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.8	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.0	2.0
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	18.6	14.2
Shots on target, last 5	6.2	3.8
Shots per possession	0.305	0.271
On-target shots per possession	0.117	0.085
Inside-box shots per possession	0.201	0.178
Share of shots from inside the box	65.2%	63.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.53	—
Possession, last 5	56.2%	50.8%
Corners, last 5	6.0	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.252	0.259
On-target allowed per possession	0.096	0.107
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.162	0.165
Opponents' inside-box share	64.0%	63.5%
Save rate	71.8%	59.0%
Saves, last 5	3.6	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.13	—
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.4%	74.0%
Passes, last 5	490	366
Fouls, last 5	9.4	15.0
Cards, last 5	0.6	3.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	22
Home side won	16
Drawn	3
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	50
Goals, away side	17

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 68.9% · Draw 17.9% · Away 13.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Estrela v Sporting CP

primeira-liga · 19:30 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	15	2
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,490	1,906
Matches on record, all seasons	104	528
Recent form
Points, last 5	2	11
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	3.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	2.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	4	0
Wins in a row	0	3
Unbeaten run	2	5
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	84	84
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	3.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.2	16.2
Shots on target, last 5	2.8	6.6
Shots per possession	0.248	0.268
On-target shots per possession	0.083	0.105
Inside-box shots per possession	0.159	0.177
Share of shots from inside the box	63.9%	65.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.33	2.50
Possession, last 5	39.0%	63.4%
Corners, last 5	2.2	5.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.248	0.297
On-target allowed per possession	0.073	0.096
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.137	0.175
Opponents' inside-box share	53.6%	59.2%
Save rate	64.5%	69.8%
Saves, last 5	2.4	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.80	0.98
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	75.8%	89.0%
Passes, last 5	313	582
Fouls, last 5	13.8	10.2
Cards, last 5	3.4	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	0
Drawn	0
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	4
Goals, away side	18

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 8.1% · Draw 15.0% · Away 76.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Sparta Rotterdam v Feyenoord

eredivisie · 10:15 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	10	2
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,532	1,737
Matches on record, all seasons	304	539
Recent form
Points, last 5	1	11
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	3.0	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	2.2	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	4	2
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	9
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	84	84
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.6	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.2	14.8
Shots on target, last 5	3.0	5.8
Shots per possession	0.278	0.286
On-target shots per possession	0.079	0.110
Inside-box shots per possession	0.168	0.202
Share of shots from inside the box	60.9%	70.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.35	2.26
Possession, last 5	47.0%	46.4%
Corners, last 5	4.0	6.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.304	0.222
On-target allowed per possession	0.109	0.068
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.198	0.150
Opponents' inside-box share	63.3%	65.4%
Save rate	65.0%	67.9%
Saves, last 5	3.2	1.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.13	1.27
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.6%	78.4%
Passes, last 5	393	375
Fouls, last 5	9.0	11.6
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	18
Home side won	2
Drawn	4
Away side won	12
Goals, home side	14
Goals, away side	49

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 20.4% · Draw 23.5% · Away 56.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Groningen v Utrecht

eredivisie · 12:30 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	9	6
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,520	1,654
Matches on record, all seasons	520	565
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	13
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	0.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	2.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	3	5
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	5
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	80	77
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	1.4
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	2.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.8	19.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	6.8
Shots per possession	0.299	0.379
On-target shots per possession	0.109	0.165
Inside-box shots per possession	0.190	0.261
Share of shots from inside the box	62.6%	69.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.04	2.01
Possession, last 5	48.6%	47.6%
Corners, last 5	3.6	6.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.255	0.269
On-target allowed per possession	0.091	0.095
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.166	0.169
Opponents' inside-box share	64.7%	63.8%
Save rate	69.2%	71.9%
Saves, last 5	2.2	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.51	0.92
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	77.4%	83.0%
Passes, last 5	395	429
Fouls, last 5	11.6	11.4
Cards, last 5	1.8	0.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	30
Home side won	7
Drawn	7
Away side won	16
Goals, home side	29
Goals, away side	39

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 42.0% · Draw 27.7% · Away 30.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Kilmarnock v Celtic

scottish-prem · 12:30 UK

Finished 1–5. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	6	2
Position last season	10	1
Points this season	0	3
Goal difference this season	-1	+1
Elo rating going in	1,484	1,795
Matches on record, all seasons	562	596
Recent form
Points, last 5	12	15
Goals scored, last 5	3.2	2.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	2.1	2.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	4	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	1
Wins in a row	0	8
Unbeaten run	0	8
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.2	15.6
Shots on target, last 5	5.8	4.4
Shots per possession	0.270	0.231
On-target shots per possession	0.099	0.085
Inside-box shots per possession	0.173	0.130
Share of shots from inside the box	64.6%	57.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.88	2.11
Possession, last 5	45.4%	63.2%
Corners, last 5	3.6	7.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.203	0.289
On-target allowed per possession	0.067	0.089
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.135	0.180
Opponents' inside-box share	68.5%	66.0%
Save rate	70.3%	70.5%
Saves, last 5	2.8	1.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.10	0.79
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.6%	84.6%
Passes, last 5	429	562
Fouls, last 5	12.0	14.0
Cards, last 5	1.8	3.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	48
Home side won	4
Drawn	8
Away side won	36
Goals, home side	35
Goals, away side	124

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 13.4% · Draw 17.9% · Away 68.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

PEC Zwolle v Ajax

eredivisie · 12:30 UK

Finished 0–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	15	5
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,503	1,698
Matches on record, all seasons	438	537
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	6
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	2.6	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	2.1	0.7
Clean sheets, last 10	2	6
Failed to score, last 10	3	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	3
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	84	77
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.2	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.2	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.0	17.4
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	5.8
Shots per possession	0.230	0.273
On-target shots per possession	0.077	0.101
Inside-box shots per possession	0.148	0.158
Share of shots from inside the box	62.9%	56.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.22	1.53
Possession, last 5	46.2%	57.0%
Corners, last 5	3.8	5.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.298	0.280
On-target allowed per possession	0.115	0.084
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.192	0.181
Opponents' inside-box share	65.0%	64.8%
Save rate	65.5%	68.4%
Saves, last 5	3.2	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.90	1.13
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	79.0%	85.2%
Passes, last 5	400	579
Fouls, last 5	10.8	10.6
Cards, last 5	0.8	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	25
Home side won	0
Drawn	5
Away side won	20
Goals, home side	15
Goals, away side	60

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 16.7% · Draw 19.9% · Away 63.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Heart Of Midlothian v Dundee Utd

scottish-prem · 14:00 UK

Finished 4–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	5	1
Position last season	2	7
Points this season	0	1
Goal difference this season	-1	+0
Elo rating going in	1,663	1,508
Matches on record, all seasons	521	417
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	3
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	0.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	1	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	3
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	8	9
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.0	11.6
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	3.4
Shots per possession	0.275	0.342
On-target shots per possession	0.085	0.119
Inside-box shots per possession	0.180	0.233
Share of shots from inside the box	66.0%	68.6%
Expected goals, last 5	0.95	1.13
Possession, last 5	48.8%	50.2%
Corners, last 5	5.0	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.224	0.263
On-target allowed per possession	0.055	0.104
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.134	0.180
Opponents' inside-box share	59.5%	69.1%
Save rate	61.5%	70.2%
Saves, last 5	1.4	4.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.41	1.42
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	70.2%	76.4%
Passes, last 5	357	397
Fouls, last 5	10.8	13.2
Cards, last 5	2.2	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	29
Home side won	13
Drawn	6
Away side won	10
Goals, home side	47
Goals, away side	39

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 57.0% · Draw 22.7% · Away 20.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Motherwell v Falkirk

scottish-prem · 14:00 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	4
Position last season	4	6
Points this season	3	0
Goal difference this season	+1	-2
Elo rating going in	1,598	1,516
Matches on record, all seasons	598	39
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	3
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	2.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	2.7
Clean sheets, last 10	2	1
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	2	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	4
Days since last match	7	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	3.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.0	9.6
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	2.2
Shots per possession	0.218	0.194
On-target shots per possession	0.077	0.056
Inside-box shots per possession	0.133	0.131
Share of shots from inside the box	59.8%	67.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.16	1.13
Possession, last 5	49.8%	52.6%
Corners, last 5	3.4	5.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.273	0.282
On-target allowed per possession	0.091	0.111
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.185	0.181
Opponents' inside-box share	68.3%	62.7%
Save rate	55.0%	57.1%
Saves, last 5	2.0	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.39	1.41
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	82.0%	78.0%
Passes, last 5	445	399
Fouls, last 5	11.4	13.6
Cards, last 5	3.4	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	0
Drawn	1
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	3
Goals, away side	6

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 52.7% · Draw 24.8% · Away 22.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Heerenveen v Twente

eredivisie · 14:45 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	8	4
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,571	1,673
Matches on record, all seasons	554	514
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	8
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	2.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	1
Days since last match	80	84
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	2.2
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	2.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.6	17.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	7.6
Shots per possession	0.249	0.302
On-target shots per possession	0.105	0.121
Inside-box shots per possession	0.181	0.205
Share of shots from inside the box	73.4%	66.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.58	1.83
Possession, last 5	54.8%	50.8%
Corners, last 5	6.2	6.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.392	0.255
On-target allowed per possession	0.136	0.099
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.249	0.153
Opponents' inside-box share	63.6%	59.7%
Save rate	77.3%	67.7%
Saves, last 5	4.8	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.63	1.55
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.0%	78.6%
Passes, last 5	489	435
Fouls, last 5	10.4	8.0
Cards, last 5	1.4	0.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	9
Drawn	8
Away side won	15
Goals, home side	46
Goals, away side	59

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 31.1% · Draw 24.5% · Away 44.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Rangers v Hibernian

scottish-prem · 15:00 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	7
Position last season	3	5
Points this season	1	0
Goal difference this season	+0	-1
Elo rating going in	1,712	1,589
Matches on record, all seasons	443	484
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	6
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	2.6	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.9	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	1	3
Failed to score, last 10	0	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	2
Days since last match	9	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	2.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.8	10.4
Shots on target, last 5	5.4	3.2
Shots per possession	0.306	0.225
On-target shots per possession	0.119	0.068
Inside-box shots per possession	0.227	0.148
Share of shots from inside the box	74.8%	64.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.46	1.12
Possession, last 5	55.8%	35.2%
Corners, last 5	7.2	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.214	0.240
On-target allowed per possession	0.079	0.075
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.156	0.137
Opponents' inside-box share	71.1%	56.8%
Save rate	54.1%	74.1%
Saves, last 5	2.0	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.44	1.56
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.6%	69.2%
Passes, last 5	422	287
Fouls, last 5	12.4	12.0
Cards, last 5	1.8	2.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	39
Home side won	25
Drawn	9
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	78
Goals, away side	38

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 62.2% · Draw 21.1% · Away 16.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

FC Porto v Alverca

primeira-liga · 17:00 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	1	11
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,878	1,578
Matches on record, all seasons	528	34
Recent form
Points, last 5	12	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.9	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	4	1
Failed to score, last 10	0	4
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	85	85
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.4	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	0.8
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.8	8.0
Shots on target, last 5	5.0	2.8
Shots per possession	0.289	0.237
On-target shots per possession	0.098	0.081
Inside-box shots per possession	0.176	0.146
Share of shots from inside the box	61.2%	61.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.87	0.81
Possession, last 5	58.4%	44.4%
Corners, last 5	6.8	5.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.199	0.256
On-target allowed per possession	0.076	0.085
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.115	0.135
Opponents' inside-box share	53.9%	54.0%
Save rate	69.8%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	2.2	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.76	0.80
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.8%	80.6%
Passes, last 5	458	368
Fouls, last 5	13.6	14.0
Cards, last 5	2.2	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	2
Drawn	0
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	4
Goals, away side	0

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 78.8% · Draw 13.7% · Away 7.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

GIL Vicente v Rio Ave

primeira-liga · 19:30 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	6	13
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,573	1,542
Matches on record, all seasons	362	496
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	3
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	4	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	85	85
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	1.2
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	0.8
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.4	12.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	4.0
Shots per possession	0.257	0.256
On-target shots per possession	0.082	0.091
Inside-box shots per possession	0.153	0.175
Share of shots from inside the box	60.6%	69.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.01	1.17
Possession, last 5	49.4%	49.8%
Corners, last 5	5.6	4.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.240	0.264
On-target allowed per possession	0.078	0.086
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.149	0.149
Opponents' inside-box share	59.3%	57.0%
Save rate	65.6%	70.0%
Saves, last 5	2.2	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.34	1.46
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	82.2%	80.6%
Passes, last 5	381	386
Fouls, last 5	13.0	10.8
Cards, last 5	2.4	2.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	20
Home side won	4
Drawn	9
Away side won	7
Goals, home side	16
Goals, away side	20

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 47.4% · Draw 28.1% · Away 24.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Moreirense v SC Braga

primeira-liga · 19:30 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	7	4
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,560	1,736
Matches on record, all seasons	406	528
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	6
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	0.7	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	5	0
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	1	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	85	85
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	0.8	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.8	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.2	8.0
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	2.6
Shots per possession	0.175	0.131
On-target shots per possession	0.057	0.048
Inside-box shots per possession	0.102	0.077
Share of shots from inside the box	57.2%	55.5%
Expected goals, last 5	0.96	0.73
Possession, last 5	55.2%	60.8%
Corners, last 5	4.2	4.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.264	0.295
On-target allowed per possession	0.090	0.090
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.184	0.162
Opponents' inside-box share	71.8%	53.2%
Save rate	65.7%	64.2%
Saves, last 5	1.4	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.70	1.57
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	83.4%	85.8%
Passes, last 5	480	573
Fouls, last 5	13.0	11.8
Cards, last 5	2.4	3.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	24
Home side won	2
Drawn	3
Away side won	19
Goals, home side	17
Goals, away side	43

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 16.0% · Draw 24.0% · Away 60.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Santa Clara v Nacional

primeira-liga · 19:15 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	12	14
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,563	1,482
Matches on record, all seasons	238	358
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	9
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	0.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	0.9
Clean sheets, last 10	5	4
Failed to score, last 10	3	4
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	86	86
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.8	13.8
Shots on target, last 5	2.0	4.4
Shots per possession	0.221	0.271
On-target shots per possession	0.062	0.098
Inside-box shots per possession	0.127	0.145
Share of shots from inside the box	56.2%	52.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.29	1.13
Possession, last 5	48.2%	50.0%
Corners, last 5	5.0	5.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.202	0.289
On-target allowed per possession	0.067	0.068
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.115	0.189
Opponents' inside-box share	56.3%	67.6%
Save rate	72.6%	75.8%
Saves, last 5	2.8	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.73	1.25
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.0%	76.0%
Passes, last 5	353	356
Fouls, last 5	10.8	14.2
Cards, last 5	2.0	2.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	6
Drawn	1
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	19
Goals, away side	7

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 49.3% · Draw 30.5% · Away 20.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Telstar v Sparta Rotterdam

eredivisie · 18:00 UK

Finished 1–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	8
Position last season	14	10
Points this season	3	0
Goal difference this season	+1	-1
Elo rating going in	1,570	1,525
Matches on record, all seasons	41	305
Recent form
Points, last 5	13	1
Goals scored, last 5	2.4	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	2.8
Goals scored, last 10	2.0	0.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	2.1
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	5
Wins in a row	3	0
Unbeaten run	5	0
Losses in a row	0	3
Days since last match	6	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.6	14.4
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	2.2
Shots per possession	0.273	0.279
On-target shots per possession	0.121	0.073
Inside-box shots per possession	0.207	0.182
Share of shots from inside the box	74.9%	66.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.45	1.31
Possession, last 5	40.2%	47.6%
Corners, last 5	3.0	4.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.324	0.306
On-target allowed per possession	0.124	0.110
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.224	0.196
Opponents' inside-box share	69.7%	62.2%
Save rate	71.9%	68.3%
Saves, last 5	3.4	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.53	2.44
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	71.2%	81.0%
Passes, last 5	295	390
Fouls, last 5	13.8	10.0
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	1
Drawn	0
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	4
Goals, away side	2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 46.0% · Draw 24.9% · Away 29.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Wolves v Blackburn

championship · 19:00 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	20	22
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,582	1,480
Matches on record, all seasons	656	720
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	5
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	0.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	0.9
Clean sheets, last 10	1	3
Failed to score, last 10	4	5
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	82	104
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.6	9.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.4	3.2
Shots per possession	0.270	0.259
On-target shots per possession	0.075	0.068
Inside-box shots per possession	0.178	0.180
Share of shots from inside the box	67.6%	69.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.26	0.99
Possession, last 5	37.6%	39.0%
Corners, last 5	4.4	4.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.247	0.233
On-target allowed per possession	0.087	0.089
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.177	0.169
Opponents' inside-box share	70.7%	73.1%
Save rate	64.3%	75.3%
Saves, last 5	3.2	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.18	1.90
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	74.2%	75.8%
Passes, last 5	291	365
Fouls, last 5	12.2	8.0
Cards, last 5	1.6	2.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	12
Home side won	5
Drawn	4
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	13
Goals, away side	13

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 62.6% · Draw 22.7% · Away 14.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Sporting CP v Guimaraes

primeira-liga · 19:15 UK

Finished 3–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	5
Position last season	2	8
Points this season	1	0
Goal difference this season	+0	-1
Elo rating going in	1,898	1,585
Matches on record, all seasons	529	529
Recent form
Points, last 5	11	3
Goals scored, last 5	3.2	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	2.7	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	0	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	6	0
Losses in a row	0	4
Days since last match	6	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	2.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.2	15.2
Shots on target, last 5	6.6	3.4
Shots per possession	0.253	0.257
On-target shots per possession	0.105	0.073
Inside-box shots per possession	0.173	0.148
Share of shots from inside the box	67.3%	57.7%
Expected goals, last 5	2.35	1.24
Possession, last 5	59.6%	59.6%
Corners, last 5	4.4	5.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.302	0.221
On-target allowed per possession	0.101	0.096
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.176	0.141
Opponents' inside-box share	57.7%	64.8%
Save rate	70.3%	67.2%
Saves, last 5	2.2	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.85	1.42
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	89.2%	83.6%
Passes, last 5	551	469
Fouls, last 5	11.4	10.6
Cards, last 5	1.2	2.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	20
Drawn	8
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	72
Goals, away side	28

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 72.8% · Draw 17.0% · Away 10.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Bolton v Preston

championship · 11:30 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	5	14
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,486	1,479
Matches on record, all seasons	670	695
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	6
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	2.1	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.9
Clean sheets, last 10	2	0
Failed to score, last 10	1	3
Wins in a row	3	0
Unbeaten run	3	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	83	105
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	3.0	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.6	2.0
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.2	13.4
Shots on target, last 5	5.4	4.6
Shots per possession	0.283	0.268
On-target shots per possession	0.085	0.088
Inside-box shots per possession	0.170	0.205
Share of shots from inside the box	62.1%	73.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.74	1.97
Possession, last 5	55.4%	46.8%
Corners, last 5	4.6	6.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.234	0.308
On-target allowed per possession	0.070	0.094
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.157	0.176
Opponents' inside-box share	65.9%	58.0%
Save rate	60.9%	66.2%
Saves, last 5	2.0	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.23	2.08
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	72.8%	68.4%
Passes, last 5	396	340
Fouls, last 5	12.0	9.2
Cards, last 5	1.4	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	0
Drawn	3
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	5
Goals, away side	9

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 41.9% · Draw 28.9% · Away 29.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Notts County v Leicester

league-one · 11:30 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	—	21
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,393	1,480
Matches on record, all seasons	184	612
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	3	3
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	3
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	4,122	105
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	0.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	0.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	—	17.0
Shots on target, last 5	—	5.0
Shots per possession	—	0.328
On-target shots per possession	—	0.107
Inside-box shots per possession	—	0.192
Share of shots from inside the box	—	57.5%
Expected goals, last 5	—	1.76
Possession, last 5	—	51.6%
Corners, last 5	—	8.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	—	0.239
On-target allowed per possession	—	0.053
Inside-box allowed per possession	—	0.148
Opponents' inside-box share	—	61.2%
Save rate	—	62.9%
Saves, last 5	—	1.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	—	1.30
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	76.8%
Passes, last 5	—	397
Fouls, last 5	—	10.6
Cards, last 5	0.0	2.0

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 26.2% · Draw 27.4% · Away 46.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Oxford United v Milton Keynes Dons

league-one · 11:30 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	23	—
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,453	1,382
Matches on record, all seasons	457	499
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	3
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	4	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	2
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	105	1,196
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	0.8
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	0.8
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.0	18.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.2	4.8
Shots per possession	0.334	0.280
On-target shots per possession	0.097	0.087
Inside-box shots per possession	0.201	0.185
Share of shots from inside the box	60.8%	65.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.34	—
Possession, last 5	39.0%	53.2%
Corners, last 5	5.6	8.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.198	0.254
On-target allowed per possession	0.059	0.078
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.130	0.155
Opponents' inside-box share	65.5%	61.7%
Save rate	67.3%	68.9%
Saves, last 5	3.0	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.25	—
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	70.8%	79.8%
Passes, last 5	297	433
Fouls, last 5	10.4	8.8
Cards, last 5	1.0	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	11
Home side won	5
Drawn	4
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	14
Goals, away side	10

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 42.2% · Draw 28.5% · Away 29.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Reading v Luton

league-one · 11:30 UK

Finished 3–4. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	12	7
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,412	1,478
Matches on record, all seasons	685	365
Recent form
Points, last 5	1	13
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	2.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	2.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	0
Wins in a row	0	3
Unbeaten run	0	11
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	105	105
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.6	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	2.4
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.8	17.8
Shots on target, last 5	2.4	5.2
Shots per possession	0.200	0.322
On-target shots per possession	0.066	0.107
Inside-box shots per possession	0.130	0.245
Share of shots from inside the box	65.4%	75.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.50	3.51
Possession, last 5	55.4%	56.4%
Corners, last 5	3.8	7.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.254	0.268
On-target allowed per possession	0.085	0.079
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.150	0.160
Opponents' inside-box share	60.3%	60.3%
Save rate	67.2%	68.4%
Saves, last 5	4.0	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.43	2.16
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	76.2%	81.8%
Passes, last 5	417	444
Fouls, last 5	9.6	9.8
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	5
Drawn	3
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	17
Goals, away side	9

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 29.4% · Draw 27.5% · Away 43.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Blackpool v Wycombe

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	13	11
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,420	1,419
Matches on record, all seasons	677	410
Recent form
Points, last 5	12	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	0.4	2.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	0.6	1.9
Clean sheets, last 10	6	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	3
Wins in a row	4	1
Unbeaten run	4	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	105	105
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.6	16.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.6	6.0
Shots per possession	0.260	0.267
On-target shots per possession	0.088	0.095
Inside-box shots per possession	0.189	0.188
Share of shots from inside the box	70.4%	72.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.32	2.29
Possession, last 5	38.6%	62.0%
Corners, last 5	6.6	8.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.203	0.276
On-target allowed per possession	0.057	0.097
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.111	0.170
Opponents' inside-box share	49.8%	60.8%
Save rate	77.2%	60.1%
Saves, last 5	2.6	1.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.49	1.63
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	62.6%	77.6%
Passes, last 5	260	467
Fouls, last 5	11.0	11.6
Cards, last 5	2.2	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	1
Drawn	7
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	9
Goals, away side	11

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 36.5% · Draw 28.4% · Away 35.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Bradford v Peterborough

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	4	18
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,401	1,337
Matches on record, all seasons	329	685
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	2
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	2	1
Days since last match	93	105
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	0.6	0.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.8	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.6	13.6
Shots on target, last 5	2.0	4.2
Shots per possession	0.212	0.219
On-target shots per possession	0.064	0.085
Inside-box shots per possession	0.142	0.140
Share of shots from inside the box	66.5%	63.2%
Expected goals, last 5	0.74	1.84
Possession, last 5	49.2%	55.4%
Corners, last 5	6.0	6.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.219	0.393
On-target allowed per possession	0.060	0.152
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.156	0.287
Opponents' inside-box share	73.4%	71.5%
Save rate	63.1%	72.4%
Saves, last 5	1.8	4.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.92	4.14
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	59.2%	76.0%
Passes, last 5	327	402
Fouls, last 5	11.8	10.0
Cards, last 5	1.2	0.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	14
Home side won	7
Drawn	2
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	19
Goals, away side	14

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 58.2% · Draw 22.8% · Away 19.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Bristol City v Millwall

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 0–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	12	3
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,506	1,592
Matches on record, all seasons	692	698
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	8
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	0.8
Clean sheets, last 10	3	4
Failed to score, last 10	3	3
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	105	96
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.0	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.4	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.4	16.4
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	5.0
Shots per possession	0.184	0.277
On-target shots per possession	0.074	0.084
Inside-box shots per possession	0.098	0.183
Share of shots from inside the box	52.0%	67.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.22	1.41
Possession, last 5	49.6%	60.2%
Corners, last 5	3.6	7.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.307	0.257
On-target allowed per possession	0.102	0.071
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.203	0.178
Opponents' inside-box share	66.7%	64.2%
Save rate	74.6%	69.2%
Saves, last 5	3.2	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.50	1.12
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	82.6%	79.6%
Passes, last 5	449	447
Fouls, last 5	9.2	9.6
Cards, last 5	1.4	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	22
Home side won	7
Drawn	5
Away side won	10
Goals, home side	23
Goals, away side	29

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 36.5% · Draw 28.1% · Away 35.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Burton Albion v Stevenage

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	17	6
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,361	1,424
Matches on record, all seasons	495	280
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	0.8
Goals conceded, last 10	0.9	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	3	5
Failed to score, last 10	2	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	6	0
Losses in a row	0	2
Days since last match	105	94
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	0.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	1.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.4	10.6
Shots on target, last 5	4.2	4.0
Shots per possession	0.250	0.215
On-target shots per possession	0.086	0.077
Inside-box shots per possession	0.176	0.154
Share of shots from inside the box	64.2%	73.8%
Expected goals, last 5	2.55	1.07
Possession, last 5	46.8%	44.0%
Corners, last 5	4.0	4.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.189	0.192
On-target allowed per possession	0.055	0.061
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.125	0.121
Opponents' inside-box share	66.8%	65.4%
Save rate	70.8%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	1.8	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.91	1.32
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	64.2%	64.0%
Passes, last 5	302	315
Fouls, last 5	10.6	10.4
Cards, last 5	1.0	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	2
Drawn	2
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	6
Goals, away side	6

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 34.4% · Draw 31.1% · Away 34.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Cambridge United v Wigan

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 3–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	—	16
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,296	1,376
Matches on record, all seasons	184	714
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	0.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	0.8
Clean sheets, last 10	1	4
Failed to score, last 10	2	5
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	3	2
Days since last match	469	105
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.6	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	0.8
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.6	11.4
Shots on target, last 5	3.4	3.4
Shots per possession	0.234	0.236
On-target shots per possession	0.082	0.065
Inside-box shots per possession	0.168	0.160
Share of shots from inside the box	68.8%	69.8%
Expected goals, last 5	—	1.28
Possession, last 5	41.4%	52.6%
Corners, last 5	3.2	5.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.192	0.199
On-target allowed per possession	0.070	0.067
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.119	0.124
Opponents' inside-box share	63.0%	62.5%
Save rate	64.5%	74.0%
Saves, last 5	3.2	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	—	1.36
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	60.4%	72.2%
Passes, last 5	296	376
Fouls, last 5	11.0	13.0
Cards, last 5	2.8	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	3
Drawn	1
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	10
Goals, away side	7

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 40.1% · Draw 29.3% · Away 30.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Charlton v Derby

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	20	8
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,471	1,526
Matches on record, all seasons	698	700
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	6
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	1	4
Failed to score, last 10	1	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	1
Days since last match	105	105
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.8	12.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	4.6
Shots per possession	0.293	0.278
On-target shots per possession	0.094	0.088
Inside-box shots per possession	0.218	0.203
Share of shots from inside the box	73.4%	73.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.00	1.28
Possession, last 5	36.2%	49.2%
Corners, last 5	3.8	5.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.284	0.273
On-target allowed per possession	0.091	0.092
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.186	0.182
Opponents' inside-box share	66.3%	68.2%
Save rate	71.9%	77.0%
Saves, last 5	3.0	5.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.23	1.65
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	67.0%	75.0%
Passes, last 5	280	360
Fouls, last 5	12.8	13.2
Cards, last 5	1.6	3.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	16
Home side won	4
Drawn	3
Away side won	9
Goals, home side	16
Goals, away side	24

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 34.2% · Draw 30.7% · Away 35.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Huddersfield v AFC Wimbledon

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 3–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	9	19
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,409	1,302
Matches on record, all seasons	682	311
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	3
Goals scored, last 5	2.4	0.4
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.8	0.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.8	2.2
Clean sheets, last 10	2	1
Failed to score, last 10	1	6
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	105	105
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.6
Scored away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.2	7.8
Shots on target, last 5	5.2	2.6
Shots per possession	0.322	0.221
On-target shots per possession	0.103	0.071
Inside-box shots per possession	0.221	0.124
Share of shots from inside the box	66.8%	53.8%
Expected goals, last 5	2.44	0.67
Possession, last 5	47.4%	40.4%
Corners, last 5	5.4	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.220	0.273
On-target allowed per possession	0.081	0.107
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.132	0.205
Opponents' inside-box share	59.1%	74.1%
Save rate	62.4%	61.4%
Saves, last 5	1.4	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.08	2.50
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	76.4%	64.6%
Passes, last 5	375	286
Fouls, last 5	11.0	11.8
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	1
Drawn	1
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	7
Goals, away side	3

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 59.1% · Draw 22.8% · Away 18.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Leyton Orient v Sheffield Wednesday

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	20	24
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,366	1,338
Matches on record, all seasons	328	700
Recent form
Points, last 5	2	5
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	0.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	4	1
Failed to score, last 10	5	4
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	1	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	105	105
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.0	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.2	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.2	9.2
Shots on target, last 5	2.6	2.4
Shots per possession	0.203	0.222
On-target shots per possession	0.064	0.058
Inside-box shots per possession	0.134	0.169
Share of shots from inside the box	65.6%	74.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.24	0.85
Possession, last 5	56.2%	44.8%
Corners, last 5	5.2	3.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.289	0.284
On-target allowed per possession	0.097	0.104
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.213	0.220
Opponents' inside-box share	75.9%	78.7%
Save rate	74.5%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	4.8	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.90	1.91
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	71.2%	77.6%
Passes, last 5	365	373
Fouls, last 5	11.0	14.8
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	0
Drawn	0
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	0
Goals, away side	2

Mansfield Town v Doncaster

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	10	14
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,422	1,369
Matches on record, all seasons	92	496
Recent form
Points, last 5	11	10
Goals scored, last 5	2.4	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.9	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	5	4
Failed to score, last 10	3	4
Wins in a row	1	1
Unbeaten run	6	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	105	105
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.6	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.8	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.4	13.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	5.6
Shots per possession	0.282	0.262
On-target shots per possession	0.119	0.088
Inside-box shots per possession	0.174	0.176
Share of shots from inside the box	61.6%	64.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.56	2.93
Possession, last 5	38.0%	50.8%
Corners, last 5	4.8	3.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.226	0.256
On-target allowed per possession	0.056	0.078
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.142	0.181
Opponents' inside-box share	63.3%	68.6%
Save rate	69.2%	72.6%
Saves, last 5	3.2	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.49	1.33
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	71.2%	73.6%
Passes, last 5	303	349
Fouls, last 5	12.4	10.0
Cards, last 5	2.6	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	1
Drawn	0
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	3
Goals, away side	2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 43.5% · Draw 27.0% · Away 29.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Middlesbrough v Lincoln

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	5	1
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,552	1,577
Matches on record, all seasons	692	314
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	13
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	2.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	2.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	2	4
Failed to score, last 10	3	0
Wins in a row	0	3
Unbeaten run	0	29
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	84	105
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	2.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	1.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.8	14.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	5.0
Shots per possession	0.344	0.328
On-target shots per possession	0.097	0.121
Inside-box shots per possession	0.232	0.224
Share of shots from inside the box	67.1%	66.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.60	1.84
Possession, last 5	56.0%	44.4%
Corners, last 5	5.6	5.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.272	0.184
On-target allowed per possession	0.078	0.046
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.170	0.102
Opponents' inside-box share	62.7%	54.6%
Save rate	64.9%	60.2%
Saves, last 5	2.6	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.17	1.83
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.6%	65.2%
Passes, last 5	523	311
Fouls, last 5	8.2	13.0
Cards, last 5	1.0	1.8

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 67.3% · Draw 20.2% · Away 12.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Norwich v West Brom

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	9	19
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,539	1,488
Matches on record, all seasons	647	668
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	8
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	0.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	0.5
Clean sheets, last 10	2	7
Failed to score, last 10	2	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	1
Days since last match	105	105
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	1.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	0.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.2	12.6
Shots on target, last 5	5.6	4.2
Shots per possession	0.232	0.262
On-target shots per possession	0.090	0.095
Inside-box shots per possession	0.142	0.182
Share of shots from inside the box	59.5%	69.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.45	1.53
Possession, last 5	58.6%	54.8%
Corners, last 5	7.6	4.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.238	0.211
On-target allowed per possession	0.099	0.055
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.191	0.153
Opponents' inside-box share	79.0%	70.7%
Save rate	71.1%	74.8%
Saves, last 5	3.6	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.52	1.07
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	79.8%	80.6%
Passes, last 5	440	446
Fouls, last 5	13.0	8.6
Cards, last 5	2.8	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	18
Home side won	7
Drawn	3
Away side won	8
Goals, home side	26
Goals, away side	18

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 49.0% · Draw 26.7% · Away 24.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Plymouth v Stockport County

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	8	3
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,472	1,484
Matches on record, all seasons	368	97
Recent form
Points, last 5	11	9
Goals scored, last 5	2.2	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	2.1	1.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	0	1
Wins in a row	2	0
Unbeaten run	6	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	105	83
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	2.4	2.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	1.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	19.0	10.2
Shots on target, last 5	7.4	4.0
Shots per possession	0.397	0.245
On-target shots per possession	0.145	0.099
Inside-box shots per possession	0.282	0.184
Share of shots from inside the box	70.3%	73.8%
Expected goals, last 5	3.80	1.27
Possession, last 5	43.8%	53.2%
Corners, last 5	7.4	7.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.198	0.274
On-target allowed per possession	0.062	0.122
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.118	0.182
Opponents' inside-box share	61.6%	66.5%
Save rate	66.7%	72.8%
Saves, last 5	2.2	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.03	1.44
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	57.8%	74.6%
Passes, last 5	248	402
Fouls, last 5	13.0	12.8
Cards, last 5	3.4	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	1
Drawn	0
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	5
Goals, away side	4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 46.0% · Draw 25.8% · Away 28.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Portsmouth v QPR

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	18	15
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,497	1,470
Matches on record, all seasons	499	669
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	1
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	3	1
Failed to score, last 10	1	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	4
Days since last match	105	105
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.8	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	0.8
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.6	12.8
Shots on target, last 5	2.8	4.8
Shots per possession	0.223	0.279
On-target shots per possession	0.070	0.104
Inside-box shots per possession	0.136	0.164
Share of shots from inside the box	59.9%	57.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.05	1.12
Possession, last 5	44.0%	50.8%
Corners, last 5	2.6	5.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.230	0.248
On-target allowed per possession	0.087	0.096
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.157	0.144
Opponents' inside-box share	66.2%	55.3%
Save rate	65.1%	70.0%
Saves, last 5	2.6	4.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.68	1.73
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	70.0%	80.8%
Passes, last 5	294	419
Fouls, last 5	12.6	12.6
Cards, last 5	1.8	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	2
Drawn	1
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	6
Goals, away side	9

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 38.4% · Draw 29.9% · Away 31.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Stoke City v Swansea

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	17	11
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,442	1,532
Matches on record, all seasons	672	639
Recent form
Points, last 5	1	10
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	2.0	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	1	1
Failed to score, last 10	3	2
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	3
Losses in a row	4	0
Days since last match	105	105
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	0.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.4	12.6
Shots on target, last 5	2.4	5.0
Shots per possession	0.255	0.223
On-target shots per possession	0.081	0.082
Inside-box shots per possession	0.167	0.144
Share of shots from inside the box	67.5%	65.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.12	1.37
Possession, last 5	51.0%	52.0%
Corners, last 5	8.8	4.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.267	0.311
On-target allowed per possession	0.076	0.103
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.186	0.227
Opponents' inside-box share	67.9%	74.0%
Save rate	55.4%	68.6%
Saves, last 5	2.0	4.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.40	1.36
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	78.4%	80.4%
Passes, last 5	389	480
Fouls, last 5	9.8	7.6
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	30
Home side won	15
Drawn	6
Away side won	9
Goals, home side	44
Goals, away side	38

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 40.8% · Draw 28.7% · Away 30.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Alverca v Estrela

primeira-liga · 14:30 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	10	3
Position last season	11	15
Points this season	0	1
Goal difference this season	-2	+0
Elo rating going in	1,576	1,497
Matches on record, all seasons	35	105
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	3
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	0	2
Failed to score, last 10	4	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	3
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	6	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	0.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.4	8.0
Shots on target, last 5	3.0	3.0
Shots per possession	0.245	0.249
On-target shots per possession	0.089	0.082
Inside-box shots per possession	0.149	0.157
Share of shots from inside the box	61.0%	62.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.05	1.28
Possession, last 5	43.6%	37.8%
Corners, last 5	5.6	2.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.236	0.239
On-target allowed per possession	0.086	0.076
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.134	0.136
Opponents' inside-box share	57.9%	55.2%
Save rate	64.7%	65.6%
Saves, last 5	1.6	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.11	2.12
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.4%	75.2%
Passes, last 5	357	307
Fouls, last 5	13.0	14.2
Cards, last 5	2.6	3.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	0
Drawn	2
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	3
Goals, away side	3

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 43.8% · Draw 30.5% · Away 25.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Willem II v NEC Nijmegen

eredivisie · 14:30 UK

Finished 1–4. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	5	3
Position last season	—	3
Points this season	0	0
Goal difference this season	-3	-1
Elo rating going in	1,396	1,610
Matches on record, all seasons	373	382
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	2.6	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	2.0	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	0	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	0
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	2	1
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.0	23.4
Shots on target, last 5	4.2	6.4
Shots per possession	0.267	0.387
On-target shots per possession	0.083	0.128
Inside-box shots per possession	0.173	0.244
Share of shots from inside the box	61.2%	62.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.46	2.28
Possession, last 5	47.2%	60.0%
Corners, last 5	5.8	10.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.285	0.226
On-target allowed per possession	0.098	0.106
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.206	0.165
Opponents' inside-box share	72.5%	74.7%
Save rate	66.2%	72.7%
Saves, last 5	3.4	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.35	1.17
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	75.0%	81.4%
Passes, last 5	367	446
Fouls, last 5	14.0	12.4
Cards, last 5	2.2	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	12
Home side won	1
Drawn	4
Away side won	7
Goals, home side	11
Goals, away side	17

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 20.7% · Draw 22.0% · Away 57.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.