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The data behind the ratings

Sunday 9 August 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

Sparta Rotterdam v Feyenoord

eredivisie · 10:15 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	10	2
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,532	1,737
Matches on record, all seasons	304	539
Recent form
Points, last 5	1	11
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	3.0	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	2.2	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	4	2
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	9
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	84	84
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.6	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.2	14.8
Shots on target, last 5	3.0	5.8
Shots per possession	0.278	0.286
On-target shots per possession	0.079	0.110
Inside-box shots per possession	0.168	0.202
Share of shots from inside the box	60.9%	70.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.35	2.26
Possession, last 5	47.0%	46.4%
Corners, last 5	4.0	6.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.304	0.222
On-target allowed per possession	0.109	0.068
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.198	0.150
Opponents' inside-box share	63.3%	65.4%
Save rate	65.0%	67.9%
Saves, last 5	3.2	1.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.13	1.27
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.6%	78.4%
Passes, last 5	393	375
Fouls, last 5	9.0	11.6
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	18
Home side won	2
Drawn	4
Away side won	12
Goals, home side	14
Goals, away side	49

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 20.4% · Draw 23.5% · Away 56.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Groningen v Utrecht

eredivisie · 12:30 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	9	6
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,520	1,654
Matches on record, all seasons	520	565
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	13
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	0.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	2.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	3	5
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	5
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	80	77
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	1.4
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	2.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.8	19.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	6.8
Shots per possession	0.299	0.379
On-target shots per possession	0.109	0.165
Inside-box shots per possession	0.190	0.261
Share of shots from inside the box	62.6%	69.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.04	2.01
Possession, last 5	48.6%	47.6%
Corners, last 5	3.6	6.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.255	0.269
On-target allowed per possession	0.091	0.095
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.166	0.169
Opponents' inside-box share	64.7%	63.8%
Save rate	69.2%	71.9%
Saves, last 5	2.2	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.51	0.92
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	77.4%	83.0%
Passes, last 5	395	429
Fouls, last 5	11.6	11.4
Cards, last 5	1.8	0.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	30
Home side won	7
Drawn	7
Away side won	16
Goals, home side	29
Goals, away side	39

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 42.0% · Draw 27.7% · Away 30.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Kilmarnock v Celtic

scottish-prem · 12:30 UK

Finished 1–5. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	6	2
Position last season	10	1
Points this season	0	3
Goal difference this season	-1	+1
Elo rating going in	1,484	1,795
Matches on record, all seasons	562	596
Recent form
Points, last 5	12	15
Goals scored, last 5	3.2	2.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	2.1	2.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	4	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	1
Wins in a row	0	8
Unbeaten run	0	8
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.2	15.6
Shots on target, last 5	5.8	4.4
Shots per possession	0.270	0.231
On-target shots per possession	0.099	0.085
Inside-box shots per possession	0.173	0.130
Share of shots from inside the box	64.6%	57.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.88	2.11
Possession, last 5	45.4%	63.2%
Corners, last 5	3.6	7.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.203	0.289
On-target allowed per possession	0.067	0.089
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.135	0.180
Opponents' inside-box share	68.5%	66.0%
Save rate	70.3%	70.5%
Saves, last 5	2.8	1.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.10	0.79
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.6%	84.6%
Passes, last 5	429	562
Fouls, last 5	12.0	14.0
Cards, last 5	1.8	3.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	48
Home side won	4
Drawn	8
Away side won	36
Goals, home side	35
Goals, away side	124

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 13.4% · Draw 17.9% · Away 68.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

PEC Zwolle v Ajax

eredivisie · 12:30 UK

Finished 0–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	15	5
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,503	1,698
Matches on record, all seasons	438	537
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	6
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	2.6	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	2.1	0.7
Clean sheets, last 10	2	6
Failed to score, last 10	3	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	3
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	84	77
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.2	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.2	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.0	17.4
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	5.8
Shots per possession	0.230	0.273
On-target shots per possession	0.077	0.101
Inside-box shots per possession	0.148	0.158
Share of shots from inside the box	62.9%	56.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.22	1.53
Possession, last 5	46.2%	57.0%
Corners, last 5	3.8	5.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.298	0.280
On-target allowed per possession	0.115	0.084
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.192	0.181
Opponents' inside-box share	65.0%	64.8%
Save rate	65.5%	68.4%
Saves, last 5	3.2	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.90	1.13
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	79.0%	85.2%
Passes, last 5	400	579
Fouls, last 5	10.8	10.6
Cards, last 5	0.8	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	25
Home side won	0
Drawn	5
Away side won	20
Goals, home side	15
Goals, away side	60

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 16.7% · Draw 19.9% · Away 63.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Heart Of Midlothian v Dundee Utd

scottish-prem · 14:00 UK

Finished 4–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	5	1
Position last season	2	7
Points this season	0	1
Goal difference this season	-1	+0
Elo rating going in	1,663	1,508
Matches on record, all seasons	521	417
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	3
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	0.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	1	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	3
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	8	9
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.0	11.6
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	3.4
Shots per possession	0.275	0.342
On-target shots per possession	0.085	0.119
Inside-box shots per possession	0.180	0.233
Share of shots from inside the box	66.0%	68.6%
Expected goals, last 5	0.95	1.13
Possession, last 5	48.8%	50.2%
Corners, last 5	5.0	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.224	0.263
On-target allowed per possession	0.055	0.104
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.134	0.180
Opponents' inside-box share	59.5%	69.1%
Save rate	61.5%	70.2%
Saves, last 5	1.4	4.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.41	1.42
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	70.2%	76.4%
Passes, last 5	357	397
Fouls, last 5	10.8	13.2
Cards, last 5	2.2	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	29
Home side won	13
Drawn	6
Away side won	10
Goals, home side	47
Goals, away side	39

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 57.0% · Draw 22.7% · Away 20.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Motherwell v Falkirk

scottish-prem · 14:00 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	4
Position last season	4	6
Points this season	3	0
Goal difference this season	+1	-2
Elo rating going in	1,598	1,516
Matches on record, all seasons	598	39
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	3
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	2.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	2.7
Clean sheets, last 10	2	1
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	2	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	4
Days since last match	7	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	3.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.0	9.6
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	2.2
Shots per possession	0.218	0.194
On-target shots per possession	0.077	0.056
Inside-box shots per possession	0.133	0.131
Share of shots from inside the box	59.8%	67.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.16	1.13
Possession, last 5	49.8%	52.6%
Corners, last 5	3.4	5.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.273	0.282
On-target allowed per possession	0.091	0.111
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.185	0.181
Opponents' inside-box share	68.3%	62.7%
Save rate	55.0%	57.1%
Saves, last 5	2.0	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.39	1.41
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	82.0%	78.0%
Passes, last 5	445	399
Fouls, last 5	11.4	13.6
Cards, last 5	3.4	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	0
Drawn	1
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	3
Goals, away side	6

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 52.7% · Draw 24.8% · Away 22.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Heerenveen v Twente

eredivisie · 14:45 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	8	4
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,571	1,673
Matches on record, all seasons	554	514
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	8
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	2.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	1
Days since last match	80	84
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	2.2
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	2.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.6	17.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	7.6
Shots per possession	0.249	0.302
On-target shots per possession	0.105	0.121
Inside-box shots per possession	0.181	0.205
Share of shots from inside the box	73.4%	66.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.58	1.83
Possession, last 5	54.8%	50.8%
Corners, last 5	6.2	6.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.392	0.255
On-target allowed per possession	0.136	0.099
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.249	0.153
Opponents' inside-box share	63.6%	59.7%
Save rate	77.3%	67.7%
Saves, last 5	4.8	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.63	1.55
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.0%	78.6%
Passes, last 5	489	435
Fouls, last 5	10.4	8.0
Cards, last 5	1.4	0.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	9
Drawn	8
Away side won	15
Goals, home side	46
Goals, away side	59

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 31.1% · Draw 24.5% · Away 44.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Rangers v Hibernian

scottish-prem · 15:00 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	7
Position last season	3	5
Points this season	1	0
Goal difference this season	+0	-1
Elo rating going in	1,712	1,589
Matches on record, all seasons	443	484
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	6
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	2.6	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.9	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	1	3
Failed to score, last 10	0	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	2
Days since last match	9	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	2.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.8	10.4
Shots on target, last 5	5.4	3.2
Shots per possession	0.306	0.225
On-target shots per possession	0.119	0.068
Inside-box shots per possession	0.227	0.148
Share of shots from inside the box	74.8%	64.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.46	1.12
Possession, last 5	55.8%	35.2%
Corners, last 5	7.2	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.214	0.240
On-target allowed per possession	0.079	0.075
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.156	0.137
Opponents' inside-box share	71.1%	56.8%
Save rate	54.1%	74.1%
Saves, last 5	2.0	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.44	1.56
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.6%	69.2%
Passes, last 5	422	287
Fouls, last 5	12.4	12.0
Cards, last 5	1.8	2.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	39
Home side won	25
Drawn	9
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	78
Goals, away side	38

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 62.2% · Draw 21.1% · Away 16.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

FC Porto v Alverca

primeira-liga · 17:00 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	1	11
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,878	1,578
Matches on record, all seasons	528	34
Recent form
Points, last 5	12	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.9	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	4	1
Failed to score, last 10	0	4
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	85	85
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.4	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	0.8
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.8	8.0
Shots on target, last 5	5.0	2.8
Shots per possession	0.289	0.237
On-target shots per possession	0.098	0.081
Inside-box shots per possession	0.176	0.146
Share of shots from inside the box	61.2%	61.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.87	0.81
Possession, last 5	58.4%	44.4%
Corners, last 5	6.8	5.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.199	0.256
On-target allowed per possession	0.076	0.085
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.115	0.135
Opponents' inside-box share	53.9%	54.0%
Save rate	69.8%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	2.2	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.76	0.80
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.8%	80.6%
Passes, last 5	458	368
Fouls, last 5	13.6	14.0
Cards, last 5	2.2	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	2
Drawn	0
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	4
Goals, away side	0

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 78.8% · Draw 13.7% · Away 7.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

GIL Vicente v Rio Ave

primeira-liga · 19:30 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	6	13
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,573	1,542
Matches on record, all seasons	362	496
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	3
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	4	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	85	85
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	1.2
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	0.8
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.4	12.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	4.0
Shots per possession	0.257	0.256
On-target shots per possession	0.082	0.091
Inside-box shots per possession	0.153	0.175
Share of shots from inside the box	60.6%	69.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.01	1.17
Possession, last 5	49.4%	49.8%
Corners, last 5	5.6	4.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.240	0.264
On-target allowed per possession	0.078	0.086
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.149	0.149
Opponents' inside-box share	59.3%	57.0%
Save rate	65.6%	70.0%
Saves, last 5	2.2	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.34	1.46
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	82.2%	80.6%
Passes, last 5	381	386
Fouls, last 5	13.0	10.8
Cards, last 5	2.4	2.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	20
Home side won	4
Drawn	9
Away side won	7
Goals, home side	16
Goals, away side	20

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 47.4% · Draw 28.1% · Away 24.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Moreirense v SC Braga

primeira-liga · 19:30 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	7	4
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,560	1,736
Matches on record, all seasons	406	528
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	6
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	0.7	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	5	0
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	1	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	85	85
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	0.8	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.8	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.2	8.0
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	2.6
Shots per possession	0.175	0.131
On-target shots per possession	0.057	0.048
Inside-box shots per possession	0.102	0.077
Share of shots from inside the box	57.2%	55.5%
Expected goals, last 5	0.96	0.73
Possession, last 5	55.2%	60.8%
Corners, last 5	4.2	4.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.264	0.295
On-target allowed per possession	0.090	0.090
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.184	0.162
Opponents' inside-box share	71.8%	53.2%
Save rate	65.7%	64.2%
Saves, last 5	1.4	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.70	1.57
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	83.4%	85.8%
Passes, last 5	480	573
Fouls, last 5	13.0	11.8
Cards, last 5	2.4	3.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	24
Home side won	2
Drawn	3
Away side won	19
Goals, home side	17
Goals, away side	43

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 16.0% · Draw 24.0% · Away 60.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.