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The data behind the ratings

Friday 14 August 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

Telstar v Sparta Rotterdam

eredivisie · 18:00 UK

Finished 1–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	8
Position last season	14	10
Points this season	3	0
Goal difference this season	+1	-1
Elo rating going in	1,570	1,525
Matches on record, all seasons	41	305
Recent form
Points, last 5	13	1
Goals scored, last 5	2.4	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	2.8
Goals scored, last 10	2.0	0.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	2.1
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	5
Wins in a row	3	0
Unbeaten run	5	0
Losses in a row	0	3
Days since last match	6	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.6	14.4
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	2.2
Shots per possession	0.273	0.279
On-target shots per possession	0.121	0.073
Inside-box shots per possession	0.207	0.182
Share of shots from inside the box	74.9%	66.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.45	1.31
Possession, last 5	40.2%	47.6%
Corners, last 5	3.0	4.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.324	0.306
On-target allowed per possession	0.124	0.110
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.224	0.196
Opponents' inside-box share	69.7%	62.2%
Save rate	71.9%	68.3%
Saves, last 5	3.4	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.53	2.44
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	71.2%	81.0%
Passes, last 5	295	390
Fouls, last 5	13.8	10.0
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	1
Drawn	0
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	4
Goals, away side	2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 46.0% · Draw 24.9% · Away 29.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Real Sociedad II v Castellón

laliga-2 · 18:30 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	15	6
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,390	1,500
Matches on record, all seasons	84	128
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	8
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	0.7	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	2	1
Failed to score, last 10	5	0
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	76	66
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.4	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.4	16.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.6	5.6
Shots per possession	0.301	0.308
On-target shots per possession	0.077	0.117
Inside-box shots per possession	0.174	0.235
Share of shots from inside the box	56.5%	75.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.37	1.63
Possession, last 5	49.4%	57.6%
Corners, last 5	5.2	7.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.249	0.196
On-target allowed per possession	0.094	0.089
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.173	0.153
Opponents' inside-box share	69.2%	77.1%
Save rate	65.7%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	2.6	1.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.04	1.07
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	78.2%	82.4%
Passes, last 5	392	431
Fouls, last 5	13.6	14.0
Cards, last 5	2.4	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	1
Drawn	0
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	8
Goals, away side	7

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 24.6% · Draw 23.5% · Away 51.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Wolves v Blackburn

championship · 19:00 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	20	22
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,582	1,480
Matches on record, all seasons	656	720
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	5
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	0.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	0.9
Clean sheets, last 10	1	3
Failed to score, last 10	4	5
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	82	104
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.6	9.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.4	3.2
Shots per possession	0.270	0.259
On-target shots per possession	0.075	0.068
Inside-box shots per possession	0.178	0.180
Share of shots from inside the box	67.6%	69.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.26	0.99
Possession, last 5	37.6%	39.0%
Corners, last 5	4.4	4.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.247	0.233
On-target allowed per possession	0.087	0.089
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.177	0.169
Opponents' inside-box share	70.7%	73.1%
Save rate	64.3%	75.3%
Saves, last 5	3.2	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.18	1.90
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	74.2%	75.8%
Passes, last 5	291	365
Fouls, last 5	12.2	8.0
Cards, last 5	1.6	2.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	12
Home side won	5
Drawn	4
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	13
Goals, away side	13

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 62.6% · Draw 22.7% · Away 14.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Sporting CP v Guimaraes

primeira-liga · 19:15 UK

Finished 3–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	5
Position last season	2	8
Points this season	1	0
Goal difference this season	+0	-1
Elo rating going in	1,898	1,585
Matches on record, all seasons	529	529
Recent form
Points, last 5	11	3
Goals scored, last 5	3.2	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	2.7	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	0	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	6	0
Losses in a row	0	4
Days since last match	6	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	2.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.2	15.2
Shots on target, last 5	6.6	3.4
Shots per possession	0.253	0.257
On-target shots per possession	0.105	0.073
Inside-box shots per possession	0.173	0.148
Share of shots from inside the box	67.3%	57.7%
Expected goals, last 5	2.35	1.24
Possession, last 5	59.6%	59.6%
Corners, last 5	4.4	5.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.302	0.221
On-target allowed per possession	0.101	0.096
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.176	0.141
Opponents' inside-box share	57.7%	64.8%
Save rate	70.3%	67.2%
Saves, last 5	2.2	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.85	1.42
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	89.2%	83.6%
Passes, last 5	551	469
Fouls, last 5	11.4	10.6
Cards, last 5	1.2	2.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	20
Drawn	8
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	72
Goals, away side	28

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 72.8% · Draw 17.0% · Away 10.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.