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The data behind the ratings

Saturday 15 August 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

Bolton v Preston

championship · 11:30 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	5	14
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,486	1,479
Matches on record, all seasons	670	695
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	6
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	2.1	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.9
Clean sheets, last 10	2	0
Failed to score, last 10	1	3
Wins in a row	3	0
Unbeaten run	3	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	83	105
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	3.0	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.6	2.0
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.2	13.4
Shots on target, last 5	5.4	4.6
Shots per possession	0.283	0.268
On-target shots per possession	0.085	0.088
Inside-box shots per possession	0.170	0.205
Share of shots from inside the box	62.1%	73.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.74	1.97
Possession, last 5	55.4%	46.8%
Corners, last 5	4.6	6.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.234	0.308
On-target allowed per possession	0.070	0.094
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.157	0.176
Opponents' inside-box share	65.9%	58.0%
Save rate	60.9%	66.2%
Saves, last 5	2.0	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.23	2.08
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	72.8%	68.4%
Passes, last 5	396	340
Fouls, last 5	12.0	9.2
Cards, last 5	1.4	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	0
Drawn	3
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	5
Goals, away side	9

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 41.9% · Draw 28.9% · Away 29.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Notts County v Leicester

league-one · 11:30 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	—	21
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,393	1,480
Matches on record, all seasons	184	612
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	3	3
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	3
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	4,122	105
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	0.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	0.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	—	17.0
Shots on target, last 5	—	5.0
Shots per possession	—	0.328
On-target shots per possession	—	0.107
Inside-box shots per possession	—	0.192
Share of shots from inside the box	—	57.5%
Expected goals, last 5	—	1.76
Possession, last 5	—	51.6%
Corners, last 5	—	8.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	—	0.239
On-target allowed per possession	—	0.053
Inside-box allowed per possession	—	0.148
Opponents' inside-box share	—	61.2%
Save rate	—	62.9%
Saves, last 5	—	1.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	—	1.30
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	76.8%
Passes, last 5	—	397
Fouls, last 5	—	10.6
Cards, last 5	0.0	2.0

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 26.2% · Draw 27.4% · Away 46.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Oxford United v Milton Keynes Dons

league-one · 11:30 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	23	—
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,453	1,382
Matches on record, all seasons	457	499
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	3
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	4	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	2
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	105	1,196
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	0.8
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	0.8
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.0	18.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.2	4.8
Shots per possession	0.334	0.280
On-target shots per possession	0.097	0.087
Inside-box shots per possession	0.201	0.185
Share of shots from inside the box	60.8%	65.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.34	—
Possession, last 5	39.0%	53.2%
Corners, last 5	5.6	8.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.198	0.254
On-target allowed per possession	0.059	0.078
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.130	0.155
Opponents' inside-box share	65.5%	61.7%
Save rate	67.3%	68.9%
Saves, last 5	3.0	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.25	—
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	70.8%	79.8%
Passes, last 5	297	433
Fouls, last 5	10.4	8.8
Cards, last 5	1.0	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	11
Home side won	5
Drawn	4
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	14
Goals, away side	10

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 42.2% · Draw 28.5% · Away 29.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Reading v Luton

league-one · 11:30 UK

Finished 3–4. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	12	7
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,412	1,478
Matches on record, all seasons	685	365
Recent form
Points, last 5	1	13
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	2.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	2.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	0
Wins in a row	0	3
Unbeaten run	0	11
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	105	105
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.6	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	2.4
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.8	17.8
Shots on target, last 5	2.4	5.2
Shots per possession	0.200	0.322
On-target shots per possession	0.066	0.107
Inside-box shots per possession	0.130	0.245
Share of shots from inside the box	65.4%	75.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.50	3.51
Possession, last 5	55.4%	56.4%
Corners, last 5	3.8	7.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.254	0.268
On-target allowed per possession	0.085	0.079
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.150	0.160
Opponents' inside-box share	60.3%	60.3%
Save rate	67.2%	68.4%
Saves, last 5	4.0	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.43	2.16
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	76.2%	81.8%
Passes, last 5	417	444
Fouls, last 5	9.6	9.8
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	5
Drawn	3
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	17
Goals, away side	9

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 29.4% · Draw 27.5% · Away 43.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Blackpool v Wycombe

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	13	11
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,420	1,419
Matches on record, all seasons	677	410
Recent form
Points, last 5	12	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	0.4	2.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	0.6	1.9
Clean sheets, last 10	6	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	3
Wins in a row	4	1
Unbeaten run	4	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	105	105
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.6	16.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.6	6.0
Shots per possession	0.260	0.267
On-target shots per possession	0.088	0.095
Inside-box shots per possession	0.189	0.188
Share of shots from inside the box	70.4%	72.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.32	2.29
Possession, last 5	38.6%	62.0%
Corners, last 5	6.6	8.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.203	0.276
On-target allowed per possession	0.057	0.097
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.111	0.170
Opponents' inside-box share	49.8%	60.8%
Save rate	77.2%	60.1%
Saves, last 5	2.6	1.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.49	1.63
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	62.6%	77.6%
Passes, last 5	260	467
Fouls, last 5	11.0	11.6
Cards, last 5	2.2	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	1
Drawn	7
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	9
Goals, away side	11

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 36.5% · Draw 28.4% · Away 35.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Bradford v Peterborough

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	4	18
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,401	1,337
Matches on record, all seasons	329	685
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	2
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	2	1
Days since last match	93	105
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	0.6	0.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.8	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.6	13.6
Shots on target, last 5	2.0	4.2
Shots per possession	0.212	0.219
On-target shots per possession	0.064	0.085
Inside-box shots per possession	0.142	0.140
Share of shots from inside the box	66.5%	63.2%
Expected goals, last 5	0.74	1.84
Possession, last 5	49.2%	55.4%
Corners, last 5	6.0	6.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.219	0.393
On-target allowed per possession	0.060	0.152
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.156	0.287
Opponents' inside-box share	73.4%	71.5%
Save rate	63.1%	72.4%
Saves, last 5	1.8	4.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.92	4.14
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	59.2%	76.0%
Passes, last 5	327	402
Fouls, last 5	11.8	10.0
Cards, last 5	1.2	0.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	14
Home side won	7
Drawn	2
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	19
Goals, away side	14

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 58.2% · Draw 22.8% · Away 19.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Bristol City v Millwall

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 0–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	12	3
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,506	1,592
Matches on record, all seasons	692	698
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	8
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	0.8
Clean sheets, last 10	3	4
Failed to score, last 10	3	3
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	105	96
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.0	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.4	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.4	16.4
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	5.0
Shots per possession	0.184	0.277
On-target shots per possession	0.074	0.084
Inside-box shots per possession	0.098	0.183
Share of shots from inside the box	52.0%	67.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.22	1.41
Possession, last 5	49.6%	60.2%
Corners, last 5	3.6	7.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.307	0.257
On-target allowed per possession	0.102	0.071
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.203	0.178
Opponents' inside-box share	66.7%	64.2%
Save rate	74.6%	69.2%
Saves, last 5	3.2	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.50	1.12
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	82.6%	79.6%
Passes, last 5	449	447
Fouls, last 5	9.2	9.6
Cards, last 5	1.4	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	22
Home side won	7
Drawn	5
Away side won	10
Goals, home side	23
Goals, away side	29

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 36.5% · Draw 28.1% · Away 35.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Burton Albion v Stevenage

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	17	6
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,361	1,424
Matches on record, all seasons	495	280
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	0.8
Goals conceded, last 10	0.9	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	3	5
Failed to score, last 10	2	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	6	0
Losses in a row	0	2
Days since last match	105	94
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	0.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	1.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.4	10.6
Shots on target, last 5	4.2	4.0
Shots per possession	0.250	0.215
On-target shots per possession	0.086	0.077
Inside-box shots per possession	0.176	0.154
Share of shots from inside the box	64.2%	73.8%
Expected goals, last 5	2.55	1.07
Possession, last 5	46.8%	44.0%
Corners, last 5	4.0	4.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.189	0.192
On-target allowed per possession	0.055	0.061
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.125	0.121
Opponents' inside-box share	66.8%	65.4%
Save rate	70.8%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	1.8	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.91	1.32
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	64.2%	64.0%
Passes, last 5	302	315
Fouls, last 5	10.6	10.4
Cards, last 5	1.0	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	2
Drawn	2
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	6
Goals, away side	6

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 34.4% · Draw 31.1% · Away 34.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Cambridge United v Wigan

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 3–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	—	16
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,296	1,376
Matches on record, all seasons	184	714
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	0.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	0.8
Clean sheets, last 10	1	4
Failed to score, last 10	2	5
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	3	2
Days since last match	469	105
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.6	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	0.8
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.6	11.4
Shots on target, last 5	3.4	3.4
Shots per possession	0.234	0.236
On-target shots per possession	0.082	0.065
Inside-box shots per possession	0.168	0.160
Share of shots from inside the box	68.8%	69.8%
Expected goals, last 5	—	1.28
Possession, last 5	41.4%	52.6%
Corners, last 5	3.2	5.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.192	0.199
On-target allowed per possession	0.070	0.067
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.119	0.124
Opponents' inside-box share	63.0%	62.5%
Save rate	64.5%	74.0%
Saves, last 5	3.2	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	—	1.36
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	60.4%	72.2%
Passes, last 5	296	376
Fouls, last 5	11.0	13.0
Cards, last 5	2.8	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	3
Drawn	1
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	10
Goals, away side	7

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 40.1% · Draw 29.3% · Away 30.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Charlton v Derby

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	20	8
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,471	1,526
Matches on record, all seasons	698	700
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	6
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	1	4
Failed to score, last 10	1	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	1
Days since last match	105	105
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.8	12.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	4.6
Shots per possession	0.293	0.278
On-target shots per possession	0.094	0.088
Inside-box shots per possession	0.218	0.203
Share of shots from inside the box	73.4%	73.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.00	1.28
Possession, last 5	36.2%	49.2%
Corners, last 5	3.8	5.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.284	0.273
On-target allowed per possession	0.091	0.092
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.186	0.182
Opponents' inside-box share	66.3%	68.2%
Save rate	71.9%	77.0%
Saves, last 5	3.0	5.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.23	1.65
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	67.0%	75.0%
Passes, last 5	280	360
Fouls, last 5	12.8	13.2
Cards, last 5	1.6	3.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	16
Home side won	4
Drawn	3
Away side won	9
Goals, home side	16
Goals, away side	24

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 34.2% · Draw 30.7% · Away 35.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Huddersfield v AFC Wimbledon

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 3–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	9	19
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,409	1,302
Matches on record, all seasons	682	311
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	3
Goals scored, last 5	2.4	0.4
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.8	0.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.8	2.2
Clean sheets, last 10	2	1
Failed to score, last 10	1	6
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	105	105
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.6
Scored away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.2	7.8
Shots on target, last 5	5.2	2.6
Shots per possession	0.322	0.221
On-target shots per possession	0.103	0.071
Inside-box shots per possession	0.221	0.124
Share of shots from inside the box	66.8%	53.8%
Expected goals, last 5	2.44	0.67
Possession, last 5	47.4%	40.4%
Corners, last 5	5.4	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.220	0.273
On-target allowed per possession	0.081	0.107
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.132	0.205
Opponents' inside-box share	59.1%	74.1%
Save rate	62.4%	61.4%
Saves, last 5	1.4	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.08	2.50
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	76.4%	64.6%
Passes, last 5	375	286
Fouls, last 5	11.0	11.8
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	1
Drawn	1
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	7
Goals, away side	3

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 59.1% · Draw 22.8% · Away 18.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Leyton Orient v Sheffield Wednesday

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	20	24
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,366	1,338
Matches on record, all seasons	328	700
Recent form
Points, last 5	2	5
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	0.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	4	1
Failed to score, last 10	5	4
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	1	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	105	105
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.0	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.2	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.2	9.2
Shots on target, last 5	2.6	2.4
Shots per possession	0.203	0.222
On-target shots per possession	0.064	0.058
Inside-box shots per possession	0.134	0.169
Share of shots from inside the box	65.6%	74.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.24	0.85
Possession, last 5	56.2%	44.8%
Corners, last 5	5.2	3.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.289	0.284
On-target allowed per possession	0.097	0.104
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.213	0.220
Opponents' inside-box share	75.9%	78.7%
Save rate	74.5%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	4.8	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.90	1.91
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	71.2%	77.6%
Passes, last 5	365	373
Fouls, last 5	11.0	14.8
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	0
Drawn	0
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	0
Goals, away side	2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 34.7% · Draw 27.8% · Away 37.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Mansfield Town v Doncaster

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	10	14
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,422	1,369
Matches on record, all seasons	92	496
Recent form
Points, last 5	11	10
Goals scored, last 5	2.4	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.9	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	5	4
Failed to score, last 10	3	4
Wins in a row	1	1
Unbeaten run	6	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	105	105
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.6	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.8	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.4	13.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	5.6
Shots per possession	0.282	0.262
On-target shots per possession	0.119	0.088
Inside-box shots per possession	0.174	0.176
Share of shots from inside the box	61.6%	64.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.56	2.93
Possession, last 5	38.0%	50.8%
Corners, last 5	4.8	3.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.226	0.256
On-target allowed per possession	0.056	0.078
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.142	0.181
Opponents' inside-box share	63.3%	68.6%
Save rate	69.2%	72.6%
Saves, last 5	3.2	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.49	1.33
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	71.2%	73.6%
Passes, last 5	303	349
Fouls, last 5	12.4	10.0
Cards, last 5	2.6	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	1
Drawn	0
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	3
Goals, away side	2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 43.5% · Draw 27.0% · Away 29.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Middlesbrough v Lincoln

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	5	1
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,552	1,577
Matches on record, all seasons	692	314
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	13
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	2.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	2.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	2	4
Failed to score, last 10	3	0
Wins in a row	0	3
Unbeaten run	0	29
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	84	105
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	2.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	1.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.8	14.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	5.0
Shots per possession	0.344	0.328
On-target shots per possession	0.097	0.121
Inside-box shots per possession	0.232	0.224
Share of shots from inside the box	67.1%	66.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.60	1.84
Possession, last 5	56.0%	44.4%
Corners, last 5	5.6	5.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.272	0.184
On-target allowed per possession	0.078	0.046
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.170	0.102
Opponents' inside-box share	62.7%	54.6%
Save rate	64.9%	60.2%
Saves, last 5	2.6	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.17	1.83
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.6%	65.2%
Passes, last 5	523	311
Fouls, last 5	8.2	13.0
Cards, last 5	1.0	1.8

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 67.3% · Draw 20.2% · Away 12.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Norwich v West Brom

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	9	19
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,539	1,488
Matches on record, all seasons	647	668
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	8
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	0.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	0.5
Clean sheets, last 10	2	7
Failed to score, last 10	2	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	1
Days since last match	105	105
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	1.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	0.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.2	12.6
Shots on target, last 5	5.6	4.2
Shots per possession	0.232	0.262
On-target shots per possession	0.090	0.095
Inside-box shots per possession	0.142	0.182
Share of shots from inside the box	59.5%	69.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.45	1.53
Possession, last 5	58.6%	54.8%
Corners, last 5	7.6	4.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.238	0.211
On-target allowed per possession	0.099	0.055
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.191	0.153
Opponents' inside-box share	79.0%	70.7%
Save rate	71.1%	74.8%
Saves, last 5	3.6	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.52	1.07
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	79.8%	80.6%
Passes, last 5	440	446
Fouls, last 5	13.0	8.6
Cards, last 5	2.8	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	18
Home side won	7
Drawn	3
Away side won	8
Goals, home side	26
Goals, away side	18

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 49.0% · Draw 26.7% · Away 24.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Plymouth v Stockport County

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	8	3
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,472	1,484
Matches on record, all seasons	368	97
Recent form
Points, last 5	11	9
Goals scored, last 5	2.2	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	2.1	1.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	0	1
Wins in a row	2	0
Unbeaten run	6	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	105	83
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	2.4	2.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	1.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	19.0	10.2
Shots on target, last 5	7.4	4.0
Shots per possession	0.397	0.245
On-target shots per possession	0.145	0.099
Inside-box shots per possession	0.282	0.184
Share of shots from inside the box	70.3%	73.8%
Expected goals, last 5	3.80	1.27
Possession, last 5	43.8%	53.2%
Corners, last 5	7.4	7.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.198	0.274
On-target allowed per possession	0.062	0.122
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.118	0.182
Opponents' inside-box share	61.6%	66.5%
Save rate	66.7%	72.8%
Saves, last 5	2.2	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.03	1.44
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	57.8%	74.6%
Passes, last 5	248	402
Fouls, last 5	13.0	12.8
Cards, last 5	3.4	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	1
Drawn	0
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	5
Goals, away side	4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 46.0% · Draw 25.8% · Away 28.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Portsmouth v QPR

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	18	15
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,497	1,470
Matches on record, all seasons	499	669
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	1
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	3	1
Failed to score, last 10	1	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	4
Days since last match	105	105
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.8	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	0.8
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.6	12.8
Shots on target, last 5	2.8	4.8
Shots per possession	0.223	0.279
On-target shots per possession	0.070	0.104
Inside-box shots per possession	0.136	0.164
Share of shots from inside the box	59.9%	57.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.05	1.12
Possession, last 5	44.0%	50.8%
Corners, last 5	2.6	5.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.230	0.248
On-target allowed per possession	0.087	0.096
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.157	0.144
Opponents' inside-box share	66.2%	55.3%
Save rate	65.1%	70.0%
Saves, last 5	2.6	4.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.68	1.73
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	70.0%	80.8%
Passes, last 5	294	419
Fouls, last 5	12.6	12.6
Cards, last 5	1.8	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	2
Drawn	1
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	6
Goals, away side	9

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 38.4% · Draw 29.9% · Away 31.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Stoke City v Swansea

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	17	11
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,442	1,532
Matches on record, all seasons	672	639
Recent form
Points, last 5	1	10
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	2.0	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	1	1
Failed to score, last 10	3	2
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	3
Losses in a row	4	0
Days since last match	105	105
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	0.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.4	12.6
Shots on target, last 5	2.4	5.0
Shots per possession	0.255	0.223
On-target shots per possession	0.081	0.082
Inside-box shots per possession	0.167	0.144
Share of shots from inside the box	67.5%	65.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.12	1.37
Possession, last 5	51.0%	52.0%
Corners, last 5	8.8	4.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.267	0.311
On-target allowed per possession	0.076	0.103
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.186	0.227
Opponents' inside-box share	67.9%	74.0%
Save rate	55.4%	68.6%
Saves, last 5	2.0	4.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.40	1.36
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	78.4%	80.4%
Passes, last 5	389	480
Fouls, last 5	9.8	7.6
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	30
Home side won	15
Drawn	6
Away side won	9
Goals, home side	44
Goals, away side	38

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 40.8% · Draw 28.7% · Away 30.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Alverca v Estrela

primeira-liga · 14:30 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	10	3
Position last season	11	15
Points this season	0	1
Goal difference this season	-2	+0
Elo rating going in	1,576	1,497
Matches on record, all seasons	35	105
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	3
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	0	2
Failed to score, last 10	4	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	3
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	6	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	0.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.4	8.0
Shots on target, last 5	3.0	3.0
Shots per possession	0.245	0.249
On-target shots per possession	0.089	0.082
Inside-box shots per possession	0.149	0.157
Share of shots from inside the box	61.0%	62.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.05	1.28
Possession, last 5	43.6%	37.8%
Corners, last 5	5.6	2.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.236	0.239
On-target allowed per possession	0.086	0.076
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.134	0.136
Opponents' inside-box share	57.9%	55.2%
Save rate	64.7%	65.6%
Saves, last 5	1.6	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.11	2.12
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.4%	75.2%
Passes, last 5	357	307
Fouls, last 5	13.0	14.2
Cards, last 5	2.6	3.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	0
Drawn	2
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	3
Goals, away side	3

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 43.8% · Draw 30.5% · Away 25.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Willem II v NEC Nijmegen

eredivisie · 14:30 UK

Finished 1–4. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	5	3
Position last season	—	3
Points this season	0	0
Goal difference this season	-3	-1
Elo rating going in	1,396	1,610
Matches on record, all seasons	373	382
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	2.6	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	2.0	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	0	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	0
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	2	1
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.0	23.4
Shots on target, last 5	4.2	6.4
Shots per possession	0.267	0.387
On-target shots per possession	0.083	0.128
Inside-box shots per possession	0.173	0.244
Share of shots from inside the box	61.2%	62.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.46	2.28
Possession, last 5	47.2%	60.0%
Corners, last 5	5.8	10.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.285	0.226
On-target allowed per possession	0.098	0.106
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.206	0.165
Opponents' inside-box share	72.5%	74.7%
Save rate	66.2%	72.7%
Saves, last 5	3.4	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.35	1.17
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	75.0%	81.4%
Passes, last 5	367	446
Fouls, last 5	14.0	12.4
Cards, last 5	2.2	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	12
Home side won	1
Drawn	4
Away side won	7
Goals, home side	11
Goals, away side	17

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 20.7% · Draw 22.0% · Away 57.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

FC Andorra v AD Ceuta FC

laliga-2 · 15:00 UK

Finished 5–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	13	9
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,443	1,477
Matches on record, all seasons	126	42
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	2.1	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	3	4
Failed to score, last 10	3	3
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	0	2
Losses in a row	3	0
Days since last match	76	77
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.8	10.2
Shots on target, last 5	5.0	4.6
Shots per possession	0.236	0.177
On-target shots per possession	0.088	0.061
Inside-box shots per possession	0.145	0.103
Share of shots from inside the box	60.3%	58.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.83	1.28
Possession, last 5	64.2%	52.4%
Corners, last 5	2.8	3.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.263	0.287
On-target allowed per possession	0.115	0.102
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.182	0.192
Opponents' inside-box share	66.4%	64.6%
Save rate	71.6%	71.4%
Saves, last 5	2.6	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.54	1.39
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	88.0%	84.6%
Passes, last 5	539	447
Fouls, last 5	12.6	15.4
Cards, last 5	3.6	3.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	0
Drawn	0
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	1
Goals, away side	4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 59.1% · Draw 23.2% · Away 17.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Kasımpaşa v Trabzonspor

super-lig · 16:00 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	13	3
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,583	1,734
Matches on record, all seasons	494	534
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	4	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	1
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	90	90
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.2	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.2	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	8.0	13.0
Shots on target, last 5	3.0	3.8
Shots per possession	0.182	0.248
On-target shots per possession	0.066	0.073
Inside-box shots per possession	0.102	0.162
Share of shots from inside the box	56.1%	67.9%
Expected goals, last 5	0.87	1.08
Possession, last 5	41.2%	55.0%
Corners, last 5	4.0	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.188	0.313
On-target allowed per possession	0.075	0.087
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.135	0.192
Opponents' inside-box share	70.5%	61.9%
Save rate	68.2%	69.1%
Saves, last 5	3.6	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.10	1.46
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	77.8%	84.6%
Passes, last 5	321	429
Fouls, last 5	13.2	10.8
Cards, last 5	2.8	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	28
Home side won	7
Drawn	9
Away side won	12
Goals, home side	39
Goals, away side	47

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 24.4% · Draw 26.0% · Away 49.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Konyaspor v Rizespor

super-lig · 16:00 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	9	8
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,589	1,596
Matches on record, all seasons	460	390
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	2.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	3	1
Failed to score, last 10	1	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	3	0
Days since last match	90	92
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.6	13.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	4.0
Shots per possession	0.254	0.273
On-target shots per possession	0.097	0.090
Inside-box shots per possession	0.170	0.169
Share of shots from inside the box	66.9%	62.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.24	1.38
Possession, last 5	44.0%	52.0%
Corners, last 5	3.8	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.254	0.277
On-target allowed per possession	0.098	0.110
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.145	0.175
Opponents' inside-box share	55.9%	64.3%
Save rate	70.4%	67.2%
Saves, last 5	5.0	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.82	1.76
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	79.2%	82.6%
Passes, last 5	352	398
Fouls, last 5	15.6	12.2
Cards, last 5	3.4	2.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	22
Home side won	6
Drawn	9
Away side won	7
Goals, home side	29
Goals, away side	31

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 39.5% · Draw 30.2% · Away 30.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Sheffield Utd v Birmingham

championship · 16:30 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	13	10
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,525	1,545
Matches on record, all seasons	677	730
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	11
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	0.9
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	2
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	5
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	105	105
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	0.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	1.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.2	13.6
Shots on target, last 5	5.4	5.8
Shots per possession	0.248	0.249
On-target shots per possession	0.094	0.098
Inside-box shots per possession	0.174	0.169
Share of shots from inside the box	71.4%	67.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.92	1.48
Possession, last 5	59.8%	48.6%
Corners, last 5	7.2	6.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.290	0.251
On-target allowed per possession	0.111	0.069
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.195	0.155
Opponents' inside-box share	69.2%	59.6%
Save rate	61.9%	68.6%
Saves, last 5	2.8	1.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.83	1.05
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.0%	68.0%
Passes, last 5	483	330
Fouls, last 5	8.4	11.4
Cards, last 5	2.2	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	3
Drawn	5
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	12
Goals, away side	9

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 40.5% · Draw 28.4% · Away 31.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Utrecht v AZ Alkmaar

eredivisie · 16:45 UK

Finished 1–4. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	10	3
Position last season	6	7
Points this season	0	3
Goal difference this season	-1	+2
Elo rating going in	1,642	1,642
Matches on record, all seasons	566	550
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.9	1.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	4	5
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	7
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	6	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.2	16.4
Shots on target, last 5	6.0	5.0
Shots per possession	0.387	0.310
On-target shots per possession	0.161	0.114
Inside-box shots per possession	0.269	0.211
Share of shots from inside the box	70.4%	68.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.85	1.73
Possession, last 5	42.6%	55.4%
Corners, last 5	4.6	6.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.270	0.247
On-target allowed per possession	0.097	0.090
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.168	0.155
Opponents' inside-box share	63.1%	62.8%
Save rate	71.0%	74.1%
Saves, last 5	4.0	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.19	1.21
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.2%	83.6%
Passes, last 5	389	477
Fouls, last 5	12.4	10.2
Cards, last 5	1.0	0.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	33
Home side won	12
Drawn	9
Away side won	12
Goals, home side	59
Goals, away side	62

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 35.3% · Draw 26.1% · Away 38.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Oviedo v Granada CF

laliga-2 · 17:00 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	20	14
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,511	1,421
Matches on record, all seasons	424	590
Recent form
Points, last 5	1	3
Goals scored, last 5	0.0	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	0.8	0.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	2.0
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	5	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	3	4
Days since last match	84	77
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.8	9.0
Shots on target, last 5	2.0	2.8
Shots per possession	0.206	0.190
On-target shots per possession	0.059	0.072
Inside-box shots per possession	0.134	0.124
Share of shots from inside the box	62.2%	64.5%
Expected goals, last 5	0.78	0.69
Possession, last 5	47.6%	55.2%
Corners, last 5	4.0	4.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.274	0.272
On-target allowed per possession	0.090	0.104
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.177	0.175
Opponents' inside-box share	65.1%	64.3%
Save rate	65.7%	60.4%
Saves, last 5	3.8	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.67	1.61
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	82.0%	84.2%
Passes, last 5	401	407
Fouls, last 5	9.6	13.0
Cards, last 5	1.6	3.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	3
Drawn	1
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	6
Goals, away side	7

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 46.9% · Draw 28.9% · Away 24.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Alaves v Getafe

la-liga · 17:30 UK

Finished 3–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	14	7
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,580	1,592
Matches on record, all seasons	388	616
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.8	0.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.8	0.8
Clean sheets, last 10	2	4
Failed to score, last 10	0	5
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	84	84
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.6	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.8	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.8	10.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.6	2.8
Shots per possession	0.324	0.206
On-target shots per possession	0.110	0.065
Inside-box shots per possession	0.221	0.142
Share of shots from inside the box	67.4%	66.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.26	0.93
Possession, last 5	37.2%	48.6%
Corners, last 5	5.0	3.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.200	0.197
On-target allowed per possession	0.072	0.067
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.126	0.127
Opponents' inside-box share	62.7%	66.5%
Save rate	59.5%	73.1%
Saves, last 5	2.2	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.94	0.59
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	72.6%	70.8%
Passes, last 5	287	309
Fouls, last 5	13.2	14.0
Cards, last 5	3.0	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	16
Home side won	2
Drawn	8
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	10
Goals, away side	20

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 39.3% · Draw 34.1% · Away 26.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Excelsior v PSV Eindhoven

eredivisie · 18:00 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	4
Position last season	13	1
Points this season	3	1
Goal difference this season	+4	+0
Elo rating going in	1,501	1,841
Matches on record, all seasons	351	537
Recent form
Points, last 5	13	11
Goals scored, last 5	3.2	3.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	2.1	3.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	2	1
Failed to score, last 10	1	0
Wins in a row	2	0
Unbeaten run	6	7
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	3.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Scored away, last 5 there	2.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.6	16.4
Shots on target, last 5	6.6	7.2
Shots per possession	0.297	0.273
On-target shots per possession	0.105	0.116
Inside-box shots per possession	0.198	0.190
Share of shots from inside the box	65.5%	69.3%
Expected goals, last 5	2.07	2.12
Possession, last 5	54.2%	61.0%
Corners, last 5	5.2	6.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.257	0.318
On-target allowed per possession	0.092	0.148
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.168	0.215
Opponents' inside-box share	64.3%	65.9%
Save rate	67.2%	68.5%
Saves, last 5	2.2	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.93	1.04
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.0%	86.8%
Passes, last 5	447	562
Fouls, last 5	11.6	9.4
Cards, last 5	0.2	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	20
Home side won	0
Drawn	1
Away side won	19
Goals, home side	16
Goals, away side	64

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 14.9% · Draw 20.0% · Away 65.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Gaziantep FK v Alanyaspor

super-lig · 18:30 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	12	10
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,543	1,585
Matches on record, all seasons	256	358
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.8	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	1	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	4	1
Days since last match	91	91
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.2	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	0.8
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.6	11.4
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	4.6
Shots per possession	0.291	0.235
On-target shots per possession	0.111	0.090
Inside-box shots per possession	0.176	0.148
Share of shots from inside the box	60.6%	62.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.24	1.01
Possession, last 5	50.6%	49.8%
Corners, last 5	6.2	5.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.285	0.217
On-target allowed per possession	0.108	0.076
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.175	0.138
Opponents' inside-box share	61.0%	59.5%
Save rate	68.0%	67.9%
Saves, last 5	3.8	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.61	1.19
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	83.4%	83.4%
Passes, last 5	417	429
Fouls, last 5	9.8	13.4
Cards, last 5	2.0	2.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	14
Home side won	3
Drawn	3
Away side won	8
Goals, home side	12
Goals, away side	23

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 37.8% · Draw 29.9% · Away 32.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Gençlerbirliği S.K. v Fenerbahçe

super-lig · 18:30 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	14	2
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,514	1,859
Matches on record, all seasons	346	534
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	8
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	2.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	0.8	2.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	3	3
Failed to score, last 10	6	2
Wins in a row	2	0
Unbeaten run	2	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	90	90
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.8	16.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.6	6.6
Shots per possession	0.217	0.277
On-target shots per possession	0.069	0.106
Inside-box shots per possession	0.124	0.155
Share of shots from inside the box	53.9%	55.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.42	2.05
Possession, last 5	48.2%	56.2%
Corners, last 5	3.4	5.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.243	0.274
On-target allowed per possession	0.087	0.097
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.186	0.162
Opponents' inside-box share	80.0%	59.6%
Save rate	70.3%	65.6%
Saves, last 5	1.4	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.24	1.10
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	78.0%	83.2%
Passes, last 5	364	465
Fouls, last 5	11.8	11.2
Cards, last 5	2.0	3.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	20
Home side won	3
Drawn	3
Away side won	14
Goals, home side	20
Goals, away side	46

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 15.3% · Draw 21.7% · Away 63.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Fortuna Sittard v Cambuur

eredivisie · 19:00 UK

Finished 3–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	2
Position last season	11	—
Points this season	1	0
Goal difference this season	+0	-4
Elo rating going in	1,511	1,351
Matches on record, all seasons	265	173
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	0.6
Goals conceded, last 10	2.0	2.4
Clean sheets, last 10	0	1
Failed to score, last 10	2	7
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	7	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.2	19.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	5.6
Shots per possession	0.284	0.258
On-target shots per possession	0.105	0.065
Inside-box shots per possession	0.169	0.159
Share of shots from inside the box	60.7%	61.1%
Expected goals, last 5	0.78	0.70
Possession, last 5	40.0%	54.8%
Corners, last 5	2.4	8.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.264	0.315
On-target allowed per possession	0.103	0.130
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.187	0.199
Opponents' inside-box share	70.2%	63.8%
Save rate	62.7%	62.3%
Saves, last 5	2.8	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.33	3.35
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	75.0%	80.4%
Passes, last 5	346	425
Fouls, last 5	8.6	12.0
Cards, last 5	1.4	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	2
Drawn	0
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	5
Goals, away side	7

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 57.7% · Draw 21.8% · Away 20.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Mallorca v Valladolid

laliga-2 · 19:30 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	17	16
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,569	1,381
Matches on record, all seasons	470	480
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	3
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	0.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	3	4
Failed to score, last 10	1	5
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	3
Days since last match	84	76
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.0	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.6	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	0.4
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.8
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.4	9.6
Shots on target, last 5	5.0	2.6
Shots per possession	0.226	0.179
On-target shots per possession	0.086	0.047
Inside-box shots per possession	0.161	0.123
Share of shots from inside the box	68.3%	70.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.25	1.18
Possession, last 5	57.2%	50.6%
Corners, last 5	4.2	3.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.259	0.210
On-target allowed per possession	0.070	0.076
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.178	0.126
Opponents' inside-box share	68.0%	61.0%
Save rate	65.4%	67.9%
Saves, last 5	1.4	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.43	3.29
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.6%	84.4%
Passes, last 5	470	405
Fouls, last 5	17.0	14.6
Cards, last 5	2.4	3.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	4
Drawn	1
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	14
Goals, away side	19

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 56.5% · Draw 26.1% · Away 17.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Rio Ave v FC Porto

primeira-liga · 19:30 UK

Finished 0–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	13	1
Position last season	13	1
Points this season	0	3
Goal difference this season	-1	+2
Elo rating going in	1,535	1,880
Matches on record, all seasons	497	529
Recent form
Points, last 5	2	12
Goals scored, last 5	0.4	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	0.8
Clean sheets, last 10	2	5
Failed to score, last 10	3	0
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	0	2
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	6	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.4	13.4
Shots on target, last 5	2.8	4.2
Shots per possession	0.256	0.273
On-target shots per possession	0.092	0.091
Inside-box shots per possession	0.165	0.173
Share of shots from inside the box	63.0%	64.2%
Expected goals, last 5	0.76	1.80
Possession, last 5	43.8%	57.2%
Corners, last 5	4.2	6.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.270	0.198
On-target allowed per possession	0.088	0.076
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.150	0.112
Opponents' inside-box share	54.5%	53.2%
Save rate	69.3%	71.1%
Saves, last 5	2.4	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.44	1.07
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	78.8%	84.4%
Passes, last 5	347	437
Fouls, last 5	10.6	13.8
Cards, last 5	3.2	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	30
Home side won	1
Drawn	6
Away side won	23
Goals, home side	23
Goals, away side	69

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 10.7% · Draw 19.1% · Away 70.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Sevilla v Rayo Vallecano

la-liga · 19:30 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	15	8
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,561	1,632
Matches on record, all seasons	608	590
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	11
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	0.6
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	1	4
Failed to score, last 10	5	2
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	0	7
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	84	84
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	1.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	1.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.2	12.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	5.6
Shots per possession	0.286	0.284
On-target shots per possession	0.068	0.106
Inside-box shots per possession	0.159	0.161
Share of shots from inside the box	54.4%	59.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.12	1.20
Possession, last 5	46.0%	51.0%
Corners, last 5	3.6	3.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.185	0.267
On-target allowed per possession	0.065	0.103
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.121	0.182
Opponents' inside-box share	62.6%	68.2%
Save rate	63.5%	74.5%
Saves, last 5	1.6	4.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.84	1.14
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.6%	78.6%
Passes, last 5	378	397
Fouls, last 5	16.0	15.6
Cards, last 5	2.6	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	22
Home side won	13
Drawn	7
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	43
Goals, away side	19

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 39.4% · Draw 30.8% · Away 29.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.