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The data behind the ratings

Monday 17 August 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

Sporting Gijon v Sabadell

laliga-2 · 17:00 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	9	—
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,459	1,425
Matches on record, all seasons	534	42
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	6
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	2	4
Failed to score, last 10	1	2
Wins in a row	3	2
Unbeaten run	3	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	79	1,905
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	1.2
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	1.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.0	9.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	3.4
Shots per possession	0.248	0.178
On-target shots per possession	0.102	0.072
Inside-box shots per possession	0.186	0.090
Share of shots from inside the box	72.6%	47.2%
Expected goals, last 5	0.62	—
Possession, last 5	40.2%	51.4%
Corners, last 5	3.6	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.262	0.241
On-target allowed per possession	0.083	0.075
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.159	0.116
Opponents' inside-box share	60.1%	47.4%
Save rate	70.3%	71.4%
Saves, last 5	4.4	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.18	—
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	78.0%	78.2%
Passes, last 5	352	421
Fouls, last 5	14.6	12.6
Cards, last 5	3.8	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	1
Drawn	1
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	4
Goals, away side	2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 53.0% · Draw 27.6% · Away 19.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Samsunspor v Göztepe

super-lig · 18:30 UK

Finished 3–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	7	6
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,661	1,636
Matches on record, all seasons	142	250
Recent form
Points, last 5	12	8
Goals scored, last 5	2.4	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	2.1	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.8	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	1
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	93	93
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.6	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.0	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.4
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.4	16.4
Shots on target, last 5	6.0	4.8
Shots per possession	0.242	0.435
On-target shots per possession	0.102	0.147
Inside-box shots per possession	0.172	0.321
Share of shots from inside the box	70.0%	73.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.29	1.80
Possession, last 5	55.6%	35.2%
Corners, last 5	2.8	3.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.338	0.201
On-target allowed per possession	0.091	0.062
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.222	0.138
Opponents' inside-box share	64.3%	72.5%
Save rate	57.1%	65.0%
Saves, last 5	3.0	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.79	1.47
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	82.6%	67.0%
Passes, last 5	426	222
Fouls, last 5	14.6	21.6
Cards, last 5	3.2	3.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	2
Drawn	1
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	9
Goals, away side	7

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 41.8% · Draw 29.1% · Away 29.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Cardiff v Wrexham

championship · 19:00 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	2	7
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,506	1,558
Matches on record, all seasons	678	92
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	7
Goals scored, last 5	2.8	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	2.1	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	4	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	107	107
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	2.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	18.2	11.4
Shots on target, last 5	6.8	3.6
Shots per possession	0.331	0.236
On-target shots per possession	0.100	0.064
Inside-box shots per possession	0.192	0.149
Share of shots from inside the box	57.1%	61.1%
Expected goals, last 5	2.23	1.11
Possession, last 5	68.6%	50.0%
Corners, last 5	6.6	4.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.317	0.266
On-target allowed per possession	0.127	0.104
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.212	0.179
Opponents' inside-box share	66.2%	66.6%
Save rate	70.0%	66.2%
Saves, last 5	4.2	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.19	1.28
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	87.2%	77.8%
Passes, last 5	555	418
Fouls, last 5	9.4	12.8
Cards, last 5	2.2	1.2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 36.8% · Draw 27.3% · Away 35.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Deportivo La Coruna v Elche

la-liga · 19:00 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	2	13
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,531	1,568
Matches on record, all seasons	398	442
Recent form
Points, last 5	12	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	0.8	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	0	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	2
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	78	86
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.2	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.8	10.4
Shots on target, last 5	5.4	3.0
Shots per possession	0.268	0.179
On-target shots per possession	0.101	0.065
Inside-box shots per possession	0.190	0.127
Share of shots from inside the box	70.2%	71.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.82	0.87
Possession, last 5	46.2%	58.2%
Corners, last 5	4.8	3.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.222	0.264
On-target allowed per possession	0.060	0.102
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.117	0.170
Opponents' inside-box share	53.1%	61.7%
Save rate	71.4%	67.2%
Saves, last 5	2.2	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.93	1.12
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.6%	83.4%
Passes, last 5	421	467
Fouls, last 5	11.4	16.2
Cards, last 5	2.2	3.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	3
Drawn	2
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	7
Goals, away side	11

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 43.8% · Draw 31.3% · Away 24.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Casa Pia v Benfica

primeira-liga · 19:15 UK

Finished 0–7. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	5
Position last season	16	3
Points this season	0	1
Goal difference this season	-1	+0
Elo rating going in	1,528	1,886
Matches on record, all seasons	139	529
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	9
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	2.6
Goals conceded, last 5	0.4	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	0.6	2.3
Goals conceded, last 10	0.9	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	4	2
Failed to score, last 10	5	0
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	50
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	9	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.8	19.4
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	7.6
Shots per possession	0.265	0.338
On-target shots per possession	0.098	0.116
Inside-box shots per possession	0.168	0.261
Share of shots from inside the box	63.9%	77.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.28	2.82
Possession, last 5	42.0%	53.6%
Corners, last 5	5.6	8.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.203	0.257
On-target allowed per possession	0.056	0.093
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.124	0.180
Opponents' inside-box share	56.6%	67.0%
Save rate	75.8%	71.6%
Saves, last 5	2.4	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.93	1.06
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	72.4%	83.8%
Passes, last 5	297	449
Fouls, last 5	15.0	11.6
Cards, last 5	2.6	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	1
Drawn	3
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	7
Goals, away side	13

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 6.6% · Draw 13.6% · Away 79.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Almeria v Eldense

laliga-2 · 19:30 UK

Finished 3–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	3	—
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,522	1,398
Matches on record, all seasons	536	84
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	2.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	3	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	1
Days since last match	58	442
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.0	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.6	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	0.8
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	2.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.8	13.6
Shots on target, last 5	4.6	4.4
Shots per possession	0.302	0.298
On-target shots per possession	0.104	0.094
Inside-box shots per possession	0.197	0.193
Share of shots from inside the box	65.6%	62.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.89	—
Possession, last 5	44.4%	43.6%
Corners, last 5	3.2	5.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.253	0.245
On-target allowed per possession	0.106	0.090
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.183	0.176
Opponents' inside-box share	71.7%	68.1%
Save rate	72.4%	67.2%
Saves, last 5	3.0	4.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.37	—
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	78.4%	75.8%
Passes, last 5	336	332
Fouls, last 5	15.2	14.4
Cards, last 5	2.4	2.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	1
Drawn	0
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	5
Goals, away side	1

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 66.4% · Draw 19.7% · Away 13.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.