The data behind the ratings

Wednesday 19 August 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

Atletico Madrid v Malaga

la-liga · 19:00 UK
Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position——
Position last season44
Points this season——
Goal difference this season——
Elo rating going in1,7291,544
Matches on record, all seasons608604
Recent form
Points, last 5911
Goals scored, last 51.21.2
Goals conceded, last 51.40.4
Goals scored, last 101.51.9
Goals conceded, last 101.91.0
Clean sheets, last 1023
Failed to score, last 1011
Wins in a row01
Unbeaten run09
Losses in a row10
Days since last match8760
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there——
Conceded at home, last 5 there——
Scored away, last 5 there1.62.6
Conceded away, last 5 there2.20.8
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 514.213.2
Shots on target, last 54.25.0
Shots per possession0.2410.277
On-target shots per possession0.0850.114
Inside-box shots per possession0.1590.205
Share of shots from inside the box68.6%73.9%
Expected goals, last 51.783.38
Possession, last 548.6%51.2%
Corners, last 57.85.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.2900.246
On-target allowed per possession0.1030.093
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1920.144
Opponents' inside-box share64.1%56.8%
Save rate64.9%66.2%
Saves, last 53.62.2
Expected goals conceded, last 51.630.40
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy85.0%84.0%
Passes, last 5460449
Fouls, last 510.811.8
Cards, last 52.61.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record16
Home side won10
Drawn4
Away side won2
Goals, home side23
Goals, away side12
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 71.5% · Draw 18.0% · Away 10.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.