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The data behind the ratings

Saturday 22 August 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

Birmingham v Bristol City

championship · 11:30 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	8	15
Position last season	10	12
Points this season	1	0
Goal difference this season	+0	-2
Elo rating going in	1,547	1,497
Matches on record, all seasons	731	693
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	0.9	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	3	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	6	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.6	9.4
Shots on target, last 5	4.6	3.6
Shots per possession	0.232	0.192
On-target shots per possession	0.092	0.072
Inside-box shots per possession	0.153	0.098
Share of shots from inside the box	65.3%	51.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.30	1.16
Possession, last 5	50.6%	45.4%
Corners, last 5	6.4	3.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.234	0.302
On-target allowed per possession	0.069	0.095
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.150	0.202
Opponents' inside-box share	64.6%	67.1%
Save rate	68.6%	75.3%
Saves, last 5	1.8	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.11	1.98
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	68.6%	77.0%
Passes, last 5	335	398
Fouls, last 5	11.8	8.2
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	24
Home side won	15
Drawn	4
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	37
Goals, away side	22

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 53.4% · Draw 25.2% · Away 21.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Doncaster v Barnsley

league-one · 11:30 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	17	17
Position last season	14	15
Points this season	0	0
Goal difference this season	-1	-1
Elo rating going in	1,362	1,359
Matches on record, all seasons	497	701
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	3
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	0.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	2
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.0	10.5
Shots on target, last 5	5.5	3.0
Shots per possession	0.249	0.227
On-target shots per possession	0.094	0.083
Inside-box shots per possession	0.171	0.149
Share of shots from inside the box	65.6%	65.8%
Expected goals, last 5	3.31	1.92
Possession, last 5	53.0%	55.0%
Corners, last 5	3.2	3.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.244	0.267
On-target allowed per possession	0.081	0.098
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.171	0.206
Opponents' inside-box share	68.0%	78.0%
Save rate	71.1%	70.0%
Saves, last 5	3.2	3.5
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.36	2.84
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	74.2%	73.5%
Passes, last 5	358	404
Fouls, last 5	10.2	12.0
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	12
Home side won	4
Drawn	5
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	11
Goals, away side	10

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 47.9% · Draw 24.6% · Away 27.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Hull City v Manchester United

premier-league · 11:30 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	6	3
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,553	1,809
Matches on record, all seasons	672	608
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	13
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	2.2
Goals conceded, last 5	0.6	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.9
Goals conceded, last 10	0.9	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	4	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	1
Wins in a row	2	2
Unbeaten run	4	6
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	91	90
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.4	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	0.8
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.2	16.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	5.6
Shots per possession	0.288	0.313
On-target shots per possession	0.095	0.114
Inside-box shots per possession	0.185	0.208
Share of shots from inside the box	65.7%	61.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.21	2.11
Possession, last 5	40.0%	45.4%
Corners, last 5	4.2	5.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.246	0.260
On-target allowed per possession	0.072	0.077
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.142	0.167
Opponents' inside-box share	58.6%	65.5%
Save rate	69.6%	71.1%
Saves, last 5	2.2	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.87	1.20
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	65.8%	82.6%
Passes, last 5	287	428
Fouls, last 5	8.2	9.8
Cards, last 5	1.6	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	0
Drawn	2
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	3
Goals, away side	10

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 10.5% · Draw 18.7% · Away 70.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Lincoln v Portsmouth

championship · 11:30 UK

Finished 1–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	10	15
Position last season	1	18
Points this season	0	0
Goal difference this season	-1	-2
Elo rating going in	1,568	1,484
Matches on record, all seasons	315	500
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	7
Goals scored, last 5	2.2	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	2.1	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	1.9
Clean sheets, last 10	4	3
Failed to score, last 10	0	0
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	1
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.4	10.6
Shots on target, last 5	4.2	3.2
Shots per possession	0.313	0.213
On-target shots per possession	0.109	0.068
Inside-box shots per possession	0.217	0.126
Share of shots from inside the box	67.1%	58.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.47	1.09
Possession, last 5	40.4%	46.8%
Corners, last 5	5.8	3.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.196	0.227
On-target allowed per possession	0.051	0.087
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.110	0.154
Opponents' inside-box share	55.5%	65.9%
Save rate	61.4%	63.1%
Saves, last 5	2.2	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.94	1.88
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	64.4%	71.6%
Passes, last 5	286	310
Fouls, last 5	13.0	12.4
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	1
Drawn	2
Away side won	7
Goals, home side	5
Goals, away side	16

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 41.0% · Draw 28.0% · Away 31.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Luton v Notts County

league-one · 11:30 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	2
Position last season	7	—
Points this season	3	1
Goal difference this season	+1	+0
Elo rating going in	1,488	1,393
Matches on record, all seasons	366	185
Recent form
Points, last 5	13	4
Goals scored, last 5	2.6	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	2.4	0.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	0	3
Wins in a row	4	0
Unbeaten run	12	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	2.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.0	—
Shots on target, last 5	5.2	—
Shots per possession	0.331	—
On-target shots per possession	0.110	—
Inside-box shots per possession	0.253	—
Share of shots from inside the box	76.1%	—
Expected goals, last 5	3.51	—
Possession, last 5	55.8%	—
Corners, last 5	6.8	—
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.271	—
On-target allowed per possession	0.078	—
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.159	—
Opponents' inside-box share	59.1%	—
Save rate	67.3%	—
Saves, last 5	4.0	—
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.16	—
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.5%	—
Passes, last 5	445	—
Fouls, last 5	10.5	—
Cards, last 5	1.4	0.0

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 59.9% · Draw 22.6% · Away 17.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Millwall v Norwich

championship · 11:30 UK

Finished 3–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	10
Position last season	3	9
Points this season	3	0
Goal difference this season	+2	-1
Elo rating going in	1,602	1,526
Matches on record, all seasons	699	648
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	0.6	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	0.7	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	5	1
Failed to score, last 10	3	2
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	2
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	18.4	16.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	6.4
Shots per possession	0.278	0.255
On-target shots per possession	0.080	0.097
Inside-box shots per possession	0.188	0.161
Share of shots from inside the box	68.9%	62.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.71	1.82
Possession, last 5	62.8%	56.0%
Corners, last 5	8.6	6.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.254	0.215
On-target allowed per possession	0.064	0.097
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.165	0.167
Opponents' inside-box share	59.6%	76.6%
Save rate	68.7%	66.1%
Saves, last 5	1.6	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.02	1.42
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.8%	80.4%
Passes, last 5	472	457
Fouls, last 5	9.8	12.2
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	16
Home side won	4
Drawn	2
Away side won	10
Goals, home side	22
Goals, away side	33

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 41.2% · Draw 27.8% · Away 31.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

AFC Wimbledon v Reading

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	24	6
Position last season	19	12
Points this season	0	0
Goal difference this season	-3	-1
Elo rating going in	1,297	1,402
Matches on record, all seasons	312	686
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	1
Goals scored, last 5	0.4	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	2.4	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	0.3	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	2.1	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	1	1
Failed to score, last 10	7	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	2	2
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Scored away, last 5 there	0.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	8.5	10.8
Shots on target, last 5	3.0	2.8
Shots per possession	0.216	0.195
On-target shots per possession	0.065	0.058
Inside-box shots per possession	0.116	0.126
Share of shots from inside the box	51.7%	65.5%
Expected goals, last 5	0.79	1.50
Possession, last 5	39.5%	51.8%
Corners, last 5	5.0	4.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.268	0.236
On-target allowed per possession	0.101	0.090
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.203	0.141
Opponents' inside-box share	74.4%	60.8%
Save rate	63.3%	69.5%
Saves, last 5	3.8	4.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.52	1.43
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	65.0%	73.2%
Passes, last 5	284	365
Fouls, last 5	11.2	10.2
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	2
Drawn	0
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	5
Goals, away side	3

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 36.3% · Draw 27.9% · Away 35.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Blackburn v Middlesbrough

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	3
Position last season	22	5
Points this season	1	3
Goal difference this season	+0	+1
Elo rating going in	1,485	1,561
Matches on record, all seasons	721	693
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	4	3
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	1	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.0	17.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	4.0
Shots per possession	0.266	0.320
On-target shots per possession	0.076	0.097
Inside-box shots per possession	0.182	0.205
Share of shots from inside the box	67.7%	64.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.02	1.58
Possession, last 5	39.8%	60.2%
Corners, last 5	5.0	5.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.222	0.287
On-target allowed per possession	0.073	0.074
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.160	0.183
Opponents' inside-box share	72.4%	63.3%
Save rate	72.1%	60.9%
Saves, last 5	3.4	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.96	1.12
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	77.8%	84.6%
Passes, last 5	381	539
Fouls, last 5	9.6	9.0
Cards, last 5	2.8	0.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	24
Home side won	8
Drawn	11
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	18
Goals, away side	16

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 26.8% · Draw 27.2% · Away 46.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Derby v Cardiff

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	10	9
Position last season	8	2
Points this season	0	1
Goal difference this season	-1	+0
Elo rating going in	1,516	1,506
Matches on record, all seasons	701	679
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	2.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	4	3
Failed to score, last 10	0	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	7	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.0	17.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.6	6.8
Shots per possession	0.277	0.301
On-target shots per possession	0.093	0.089
Inside-box shots per possession	0.205	0.169
Share of shots from inside the box	74.5%	56.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.30	2.16
Possession, last 5	52.6%	67.8%
Corners, last 5	5.4	7.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.272	0.352
On-target allowed per possession	0.093	0.148
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.182	0.237
Opponents' inside-box share	68.4%	67.2%
Save rate	75.6%	71.6%
Saves, last 5	4.8	4.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.52	1.72
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	75.4%	87.4%
Passes, last 5	394	553
Fouls, last 5	13.4	8.4
Cards, last 5	3.4	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	20
Home side won	5
Drawn	6
Away side won	9
Goals, home side	22
Goals, away side	28

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 49.0% · Draw 26.4% · Away 24.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Everton v Crystal Palace

premier-league · 14:00 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	13	15
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,703	1,699
Matches on record, all seasons	608	589
Recent form
Points, last 5	2	2
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	2.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	2	1
Days since last match	90	90
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.6	11.6
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	3.8
Shots per possession	0.281	0.236
On-target shots per possession	0.122	0.078
Inside-box shots per possession	0.199	0.182
Share of shots from inside the box	70.5%	78.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.44	1.38
Possession, last 5	44.0%	43.6%
Corners, last 5	5.8	3.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.264	0.245
On-target allowed per possession	0.075	0.085
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.176	0.182
Opponents' inside-box share	67.3%	73.6%
Save rate	59.8%	64.0%
Saves, last 5	1.8	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.44	1.91
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	78.6%	77.0%
Passes, last 5	357	365
Fouls, last 5	14.2	7.4
Cards, last 5	3.0	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	26
Home side won	12
Drawn	11
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	40
Goals, away side	27

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 42.8% · Draw 28.0% · Away 29.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Ipswich v Sunderland

premier-league · 14:00 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	2	7
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,622	1,678
Matches on record, all seasons	674	675
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	8
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	0.9	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	4	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	3
Wins in a row	1	2
Unbeaten run	5	4
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	112	90
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.8	0.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.0	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.2	13.4
Shots on target, last 5	5.8	3.8
Shots per possession	0.258	0.264
On-target shots per possession	0.097	0.086
Inside-box shots per possession	0.186	0.180
Share of shots from inside the box	72.4%	70.1%
Expected goals, last 5	2.00	1.04
Possession, last 5	54.4%	50.0%
Corners, last 5	5.8	4.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.258	0.246
On-target allowed per possession	0.095	0.092
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.167	0.158
Opponents' inside-box share	65.8%	63.9%
Save rate	72.1%	71.2%
Saves, last 5	4.0	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.24	1.07
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.8%	81.8%
Passes, last 5	442	411
Fouls, last 5	12.0	12.0
Cards, last 5	2.2	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	4
Drawn	2
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	14
Goals, away side	12

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 35.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Leicester v Burton Albion

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	9
Position last season	21	17
Points this season	1	1
Goal difference this season	+0	+0
Elo rating going in	1,480	1,361
Matches on record, all seasons	613	496
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	4	7
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.5	14.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	5.0
Shots per possession	0.320	0.246
On-target shots per possession	0.105	0.085
Inside-box shots per possession	0.181	0.172
Share of shots from inside the box	56.1%	63.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.85	2.55
Possession, last 5	50.5%	47.8%
Corners, last 5	7.2	4.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.249	0.193
On-target allowed per possession	0.057	0.057
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.159	0.125
Opponents' inside-box share	64.3%	65.5%
Save rate	62.0%	69.5%
Saves, last 5	2.2	1.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.45	0.91
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	75.8%	63.8%
Passes, last 5	378	307
Fouls, last 5	10.2	10.5
Cards, last 5	1.6	0.8

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 61.4% · Draw 21.9% · Away 16.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Milton Keynes Dons v Huddersfield

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	1
Position last season	—	9
Points this season	1	3
Goal difference this season	+0	+3
Elo rating going in	1,386	1,415
Matches on record, all seasons	500	683
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	8
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	2.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	2.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	0
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	3	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	19.0	16.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	5.0
Shots per possession	0.284	0.316
On-target shots per possession	0.087	0.105
Inside-box shots per possession	0.188	0.216
Share of shots from inside the box	65.4%	66.4%
Expected goals, last 5	—	2.33
Possession, last 5	51.0%	48.0%
Corners, last 5	9.2	4.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.262	0.222
On-target allowed per possession	0.083	0.080
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.157	0.137
Opponents' inside-box share	60.8%	60.6%
Save rate	67.9%	59.1%
Saves, last 5	3.2	1.5
Expected goals conceded, last 5	—	1.04
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	79.2%	76.8%
Passes, last 5	416	390
Fouls, last 5	9.0	10.8
Cards, last 5	1.4	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	1
Drawn	3
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	5
Goals, away side	8

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 35.7% · Draw 27.9% · Away 36.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Nottingham Forest v Leeds

premier-league · 14:00 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	16	14
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,708	1,721
Matches on record, all seasons	661	663
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	8
Goals scored, last 5	2.4	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	2.2	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	0.9
Clean sheets, last 10	3	4
Failed to score, last 10	1	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	90	90
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.8	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.4
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.8	11.8
Shots on target, last 5	5.0	3.8
Shots per possession	0.265	0.274
On-target shots per possession	0.112	0.087
Inside-box shots per possession	0.184	0.185
Share of shots from inside the box	71.8%	66.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.57	1.15
Possession, last 5	43.0%	44.6%
Corners, last 5	4.2	3.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.267	0.236
On-target allowed per possession	0.081	0.086
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.159	0.180
Opponents' inside-box share	60.6%	76.8%
Save rate	73.8%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	4.2	4.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.97	1.83
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	79.2%	75.2%
Passes, last 5	379	367
Fouls, last 5	11.4	10.4
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	22
Home side won	10
Drawn	6
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	36
Goals, away side	29

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 40.3% · Draw 28.8% · Away 30.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Peterborough v Mansfield Town

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	22	4
Position last season	18	10
Points this season	0	3
Goal difference this season	-2	+1
Elo rating going in	1,330	1,428
Matches on record, all seasons	686	93
Recent form
Points, last 5	2	13
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	2.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	0.8	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.9	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	1	5
Failed to score, last 10	2	3
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	0	7
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.8	11.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.5	4.8
Shots per possession	0.219	0.269
On-target shots per possession	0.079	0.108
Inside-box shots per possession	0.136	0.162
Share of shots from inside the box	61.5%	60.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.84	1.56
Possession, last 5	51.8%	39.0%
Corners, last 5	5.5	5.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.403	0.231
On-target allowed per possession	0.160	0.055
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.294	0.140
Opponents' inside-box share	71.3%	61.2%
Save rate	71.4%	68.7%
Saves, last 5	5.8	2.5
Expected goals conceded, last 5	4.14	1.85
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	74.5%	72.0%
Passes, last 5	372	309
Fouls, last 5	9.2	12.5
Cards, last 5	0.6	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	1
Drawn	1
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	4
Goals, away side	8

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 34.3% · Draw 26.3% · Away 39.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Preston v Wolves

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	1
Position last season	14	20
Points this season	0	1
Goal difference this season	-1	+0
Elo rating going in	1,471	1,578
Matches on record, all seasons	696	657
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	0.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.8	1.9
Clean sheets, last 10	0	0
Failed to score, last 10	2	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	3
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	7	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.4	14.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.2	3.6
Shots per possession	0.272	0.279
On-target shots per possession	0.088	0.076
Inside-box shots per possession	0.214	0.179
Share of shots from inside the box	76.6%	65.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.87	1.55
Possession, last 5	44.8%	40.4%
Corners, last 5	5.6	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.298	0.246
On-target allowed per possession	0.091	0.090
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.167	0.174
Opponents' inside-box share	56.7%	69.6%
Save rate	64.8%	62.9%
Saves, last 5	2.0	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.03	1.13
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	67.6%	76.0%
Passes, last 5	322	330
Fouls, last 5	9.8	12.6
Cards, last 5	2.2	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	1
Drawn	4
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	6
Goals, away side	9

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 22.3% · Draw 26.1% · Away 51.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

QPR v Bolton

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	1
Position last season	15	5
Points this season	3	3
Goal difference this season	+2	+1
Elo rating going in	1,482	1,494
Matches on record, all seasons	670	671
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	12
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.8	2.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	1
Wins in a row	1	4
Unbeaten run	1	4
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.4	15.8
Shots on target, last 5	5.6	6.0
Shots per possession	0.283	0.292
On-target shots per possession	0.115	0.092
Inside-box shots per possession	0.174	0.167
Share of shots from inside the box	60.3%	57.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.41	1.62
Possession, last 5	51.0%	55.4%
Corners, last 5	5.8	4.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.242	0.224
On-target allowed per possession	0.097	0.069
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.134	0.155
Opponents' inside-box share	53.3%	68.1%
Save rate	68.6%	60.2%
Saves, last 5	3.8	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.96	1.15
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	79.0%	75.2%
Passes, last 5	411	408
Fouls, last 5	13.0	12.2
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	5
Drawn	2
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	15
Goals, away side	15

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 50.6% · Draw 25.1% · Away 24.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Southampton v Stoke City

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 3–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	13	10
Position last season	4	17
Points this season	0	0
Goal difference this season	-1	-1
Elo rating going in	1,603	1,433
Matches on record, all seasons	600	673
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	0
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	2.4
Goals scored, last 10	2.2	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	1.9
Clean sheets, last 10	2	1
Failed to score, last 10	1	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	5
Days since last match	6	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.8	10.6
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	2.2
Shots per possession	0.278	0.232
On-target shots per possession	0.091	0.071
Inside-box shots per possession	0.193	0.159
Share of shots from inside the box	70.0%	71.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.53	0.90
Possession, last 5	53.4%	47.4%
Corners, last 5	6.0	8.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.305	0.250
On-target allowed per possession	0.096	0.073
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.193	0.173
Opponents' inside-box share	62.1%	67.4%
Save rate	72.5%	53.8%
Saves, last 5	3.8	1.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.49	1.39
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	82.2%	75.8%
Passes, last 5	453	349
Fouls, last 5	12.0	10.4
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	16
Home side won	4
Drawn	6
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	16
Goals, away side	17

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 60.0% · Draw 22.3% · Away 17.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Stevenage v Oxford United

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	9	2
Position last season	6	23
Points this season	1	1
Goal difference this season	+0	+0
Elo rating going in	1,424	1,450
Matches on record, all seasons	281	458
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	4
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	4	1
Failed to score, last 10	2	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	1	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.0	13.8
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	3.8
Shots per possession	0.211	0.323
On-target shots per possession	0.079	0.084
Inside-box shots per possession	0.151	0.195
Share of shots from inside the box	73.7%	61.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.07	1.21
Possession, last 5	44.8%	40.5%
Corners, last 5	3.8	4.5
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.191	0.204
On-target allowed per possession	0.065	0.063
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.119	0.131
Opponents' inside-box share	64.9%	63.9%
Save rate	66.1%	66.1%
Saves, last 5	2.2	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.32	1.35
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	64.8%	73.5%
Passes, last 5	316	319
Fouls, last 5	12.2	11.0
Cards, last 5	1.2	0.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	0
Drawn	1
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	2
Goals, away side	4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 37.7% · Draw 29.8% · Away 32.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Stockport County v Blackpool

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	9
Position last season	3	13
Points this season	3	1
Goal difference this season	+2	+0
Elo rating going in	1,496	1,419
Matches on record, all seasons	98	678
Recent form
Points, last 5	12	13
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	0.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.9	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	0.5
Clean sheets, last 10	3	6
Failed to score, last 10	1	2
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	5
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.4
Scored away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.5	12.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.5	5.8
Shots per possession	0.246	0.273
On-target shots per possession	0.101	0.096
Inside-box shots per possession	0.189	0.198
Share of shots from inside the box	75.5%	70.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.27	1.57
Possession, last 5	49.8%	38.0%
Corners, last 5	7.5	7.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.275	0.198
On-target allowed per possession	0.129	0.053
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.183	0.110
Opponents' inside-box share	66.2%	50.2%
Save rate	73.1%	78.9%
Saves, last 5	3.8	2.5
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.44	1.40
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	72.2%	64.8%
Passes, last 5	356	265
Fouls, last 5	12.8	11.8
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	4
Drawn	0
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	8
Goals, away side	2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 57.9% · Draw 23.5% · Away 18.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Swansea v Sheffield Utd

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	8
Position last season	11	13
Points this season	3	1
Goal difference this season	+1	+0
Elo rating going in	1,541	1,524
Matches on record, all seasons	640	678
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	2	0
Unbeaten run	4	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.4	11.8
Shots on target, last 5	5.4	4.2
Shots per possession	0.215	0.241
On-target shots per possession	0.079	0.091
Inside-box shots per possession	0.140	0.169
Share of shots from inside the box	66.4%	73.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.35	1.52
Possession, last 5	55.0%	55.4%
Corners, last 5	5.2	4.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.310	0.275
On-target allowed per possession	0.102	0.102
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.228	0.181
Opponents' inside-box share	75.1%	67.8%
Save rate	67.7%	62.0%
Saves, last 5	3.6	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.21	1.72
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	79.8%	77.2%
Passes, last 5	487	443
Fouls, last 5	6.4	10.0
Cards, last 5	2.2	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	3
Drawn	2
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	8
Goals, away side	15

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 39.3% · Draw 27.9% · Away 32.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

West Ham v Charlton

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	9	3
Position last season	18	20
Points this season	1	3
Goal difference this season	+0	+1
Elo rating going in	1,664	1,481
Matches on record, all seasons	620	699
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	3	0
Failed to score, last 10	4	1
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	2	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	6	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.8	11.0
Shots on target, last 5	5.2	4.0
Shots per possession	0.250	0.299
On-target shots per possession	0.096	0.094
Inside-box shots per possession	0.194	0.220
Share of shots from inside the box	80.1%	72.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.37	0.95
Possession, last 5	45.8%	36.2%
Corners, last 5	4.6	3.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.276	0.268
On-target allowed per possession	0.080	0.089
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.167	0.176
Opponents' inside-box share	61.3%	66.6%
Save rate	65.7%	69.4%
Saves, last 5	2.8	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.77	1.17
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	77.8%	69.0%
Passes, last 5	363	287
Fouls, last 5	11.4	13.0
Cards, last 5	2.6	1.2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 68.8% · Draw 18.5% · Away 12.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Wigan v Leyton Orient

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 0–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	17	17
Position last season	16	20
Points this season	0	0
Goal difference this season	-1	-1
Elo rating going in	1,366	1,354
Matches on record, all seasons	715	329
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	2
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	0.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	4	4
Failed to score, last 10	5	5
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	3	1
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.2	11.0
Shots on target, last 5	3.2	1.8
Shots per possession	0.213	0.190
On-target shots per possession	0.060	0.054
Inside-box shots per possession	0.156	0.124
Share of shots from inside the box	72.7%	64.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.13	1.10
Possession, last 5	54.8%	56.0%
Corners, last 5	6.8	5.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.196	0.291
On-target allowed per possession	0.064	0.094
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.127	0.215
Opponents' inside-box share	64.6%	76.2%
Save rate	72.8%	76.6%
Saves, last 5	2.0	4.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.12	1.85
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	73.8%	70.2%
Passes, last 5	383	353
Fouls, last 5	13.2	11.0
Cards, last 5	1.4	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	1
Drawn	3
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	2
Goals, away side	5

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 42.9% · Draw 29.3% · Away 27.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Wrexham v Watford

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	9	3
Position last season	7	16
Points this season	1	3
Goal difference this season	+0	+1
Elo rating going in	1,558	1,472
Matches on record, all seasons	93	646
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	3
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	3.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	0.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.9	2.1
Clean sheets, last 10	2	1
Failed to score, last 10	1	5
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	2	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	5	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.2	12.6
Shots on target, last 5	5.2	3.4
Shots per possession	0.258	0.273
On-target shots per possession	0.082	0.085
Inside-box shots per possession	0.162	0.168
Share of shots from inside the box	60.5%	57.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.41	1.06
Possession, last 5	45.6%	43.4%
Corners, last 5	5.2	3.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.268	0.298
On-target allowed per possession	0.104	0.111
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.182	0.184
Opponents' inside-box share	67.9%	63.1%
Save rate	64.8%	63.1%
Saves, last 5	2.2	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.15	1.53
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	79.4%	79.8%
Passes, last 5	380	364
Fouls, last 5	13.2	12.8
Cards, last 5	1.4	3.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	0
Drawn	1
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	3
Goals, away side	5

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 49.6% · Draw 25.8% · Away 24.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Wycombe v Plymouth

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	9	22
Position last season	11	8
Points this season	1	0
Goal difference this season	+0	-2
Elo rating going in	1,421	1,460
Matches on record, all seasons	411	369
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	10
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	2.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.8	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	0
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.8	18.8
Shots on target, last 5	6.8	6.8
Shots per possession	0.270	0.395
On-target shots per possession	0.096	0.156
Inside-box shots per possession	0.190	0.288
Share of shots from inside the box	73.0%	72.0%
Expected goals, last 5	2.46	3.49
Possession, last 5	61.8%	40.5%
Corners, last 5	9.8	6.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.279	0.193
On-target allowed per possession	0.100	0.054
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.170	0.113
Opponents' inside-box share	59.8%	61.3%
Save rate	61.5%	67.4%
Saves, last 5	2.0	2.5
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.60	1.02
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	77.8%	57.2%
Passes, last 5	448	234
Fouls, last 5	11.5	14.2
Cards, last 5	1.2	3.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	3
Drawn	2
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	8
Goals, away side	5

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 35.2% · Draw 27.3% · Away 37.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Fortuna Sittard v AZ Alkmaar

eredivisie · 14:30 UK

Finished 0–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	1
Position last season	11	7
Points this season	4	6
Goal difference this season	+2	+5
Elo rating going in	1,515	1,653
Matches on record, all seasons	266	551
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	9
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	2.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	2.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	0	5
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	1	2
Unbeaten run	2	8
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.6	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.4
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.4	16.6
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	6.0
Shots per possession	0.295	0.320
On-target shots per possession	0.118	0.118
Inside-box shots per possession	0.172	0.199
Share of shots from inside the box	59.6%	63.9%
Expected goals, last 5	0.90	1.86
Possession, last 5	39.0%	55.8%
Corners, last 5	3.6	6.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.258	0.234
On-target allowed per possession	0.090	0.082
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.181	0.141
Opponents' inside-box share	69.9%	61.3%
Save rate	65.3%	71.4%
Saves, last 5	3.6	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.35	1.08
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	73.8%	84.8%
Passes, last 5	326	486
Fouls, last 5	9.4	10.4
Cards, last 5	1.0	0.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	15
Home side won	2
Drawn	1
Away side won	12
Goals, home side	14
Goals, away side	37

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 19.2% · Draw 22.3% · Away 58.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Athletic Club v Sevilla

la-liga · 15:00 UK

Finished 1–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	2
Position last season	12	15
Points this season	—	3
Goal difference this season	—	+1
Elo rating going in	1,617	1,571
Matches on record, all seasons	608	609
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	9
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.8	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	1	1
Failed to score, last 10	3	4
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	91	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.8	14.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.6	4.6
Shots per possession	0.262	0.291
On-target shots per possession	0.089	0.073
Inside-box shots per possession	0.186	0.165
Share of shots from inside the box	71.9%	55.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.20	1.21
Possession, last 5	45.2%	47.4%
Corners, last 5	7.0	3.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.177	0.175
On-target allowed per possession	0.089	0.061
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.120	0.111
Opponents' inside-box share	65.0%	62.0%
Save rate	62.0%	64.8%
Saves, last 5	2.4	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.90	1.21
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	76.2%	80.2%
Passes, last 5	374	373
Fouls, last 5	14.0	15.8
Cards, last 5	1.4	3.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	16
Drawn	4
Away side won	12
Goals, home side	41
Goals, away side	34

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 55.1% · Draw 26.0% · Away 18.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Oviedo v Leganes

laliga-2 · 15:00 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	6
Position last season	20	16
Points this season	1	1
Goal difference this season	+0	+0
Elo rating going in	1,507	1,432
Matches on record, all seasons	425	403
Recent form
Points, last 5	2	5
Goals scored, last 5	0.0	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	0.6	0.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	4	2
Failed to score, last 10	6	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	1	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	0.4	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.8	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	0.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	2.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	8.2	9.4
Shots on target, last 5	1.6	3.2
Shots per possession	0.205	0.251
On-target shots per possession	0.061	0.087
Inside-box shots per possession	0.134	0.145
Share of shots from inside the box	62.8%	56.7%
Expected goals, last 5	0.58	1.04
Possession, last 5	50.8%	47.4%
Corners, last 5	3.8	3.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.247	0.267
On-target allowed per possession	0.076	0.098
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.153	0.164
Opponents' inside-box share	61.6%	61.7%
Save rate	69.5%	68.1%
Saves, last 5	4.0	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.71	1.50
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.6%	80.2%
Passes, last 5	417	352
Fouls, last 5	12.2	16.0
Cards, last 5	2.0	3.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	4
Drawn	2
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	6
Goals, away side	5

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 49.7% · Draw 30.4% · Away 19.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Lens v Auxerre

ligue-1 · 15:15 UK

Finished 5–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	2	15
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,690	1,526
Matches on record, all seasons	292	184
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	2.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	2.1	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	0.9
Clean sheets, last 10	3	4
Failed to score, last 10	2	3
Wins in a row	1	3
Unbeaten run	1	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	97	97
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	1.4
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	1.4
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	18.8	11.8
Shots on target, last 5	6.0	5.4
Shots per possession	0.373	0.256
On-target shots per possession	0.119	0.109
Inside-box shots per possession	0.255	0.182
Share of shots from inside the box	67.9%	71.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.90	0.92
Possession, last 5	53.0%	42.2%
Corners, last 5	7.2	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.234	0.210
On-target allowed per possession	0.075	0.073
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.167	0.139
Opponents' inside-box share	72.7%	67.0%
Save rate	60.9%	70.0%
Saves, last 5	1.8	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.14	1.92
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	82.8%	78.0%
Passes, last 5	466	364
Fouls, last 5	11.2	13.2
Cards, last 5	2.6	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	4
Drawn	3
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	11
Goals, away side	10

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 61.9% · Draw 21.7% · Away 16.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Rizespor v Samsunspor

super-lig · 16:00 UK

Finished 0–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	6
Position last season	8	7
Points this season	3	1
Goal difference this season	+1	+0
Elo rating going in	1,608	1,658
Matches on record, all seasons	391	143
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	2.6
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	2.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	1	1
Failed to score, last 10	3	1
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	2	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.2	13.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	5.6
Shots per possession	0.266	0.245
On-target shots per possession	0.082	0.095
Inside-box shots per possession	0.167	0.172
Share of shots from inside the box	63.0%	69.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.52	1.62
Possession, last 5	55.4%	59.6%
Corners, last 5	5.6	3.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.277	0.378
On-target allowed per possession	0.110	0.105
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.177	0.253
Opponents' inside-box share	65.1%	65.6%
Save rate	66.7%	58.5%
Saves, last 5	3.4	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.38	1.88
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	85.0%	81.8%
Passes, last 5	434	435
Fouls, last 5	11.2	12.8
Cards, last 5	1.8	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	3
Drawn	1
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	9
Goals, away side	8

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 44.3% · Draw 29.0% · Away 26.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Brentford v Tottenham

premier-league · 16:30 UK

Finished 3–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	9	17
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,734	1,649
Matches on record, all seasons	661	608
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	4	2
Failed to score, last 10	4	2
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	2	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	90	90
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	0.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.0	13.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.4	3.0
Shots per possession	0.214	0.264
On-target shots per possession	0.065	0.090
Inside-box shots per possession	0.157	0.189
Share of shots from inside the box	71.5%	71.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.39	1.24
Possession, last 5	48.4%	55.4%
Corners, last 5	4.6	7.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.300	0.208
On-target allowed per possession	0.098	0.067
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.191	0.131
Opponents' inside-box share	63.7%	63.8%
Save rate	71.0%	60.9%
Saves, last 5	4.8	1.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.00	0.66
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.2%	84.8%
Passes, last 5	390	457
Fouls, last 5	9.4	14.2
Cards, last 5	2.2	3.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	1
Drawn	4
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	10
Goals, away side	17

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 40.8% · Draw 25.3% · Away 33.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Inter v Monza

serie-a · 16:30 UK

Finished 4–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	1	—
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,854	1,443
Matches on record, all seasons	608	114
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	3
Goals scored, last 5	2.2	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	2.4
Goals scored, last 10	2.5	0.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	2.1
Clean sheets, last 10	3	0
Failed to score, last 10	0	6
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	10	0
Losses in a row	0	2
Days since last match	91	455
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	2.6	0.4
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	1.8
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.6	9.8
Shots on target, last 5	5.2	3.6
Shots per possession	0.238	0.194
On-target shots per possession	0.092	0.062
Inside-box shots per possession	0.179	0.122
Share of shots from inside the box	76.1%	63.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.85	0.91
Possession, last 5	61.8%	54.0%
Corners, last 5	5.6	3.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.289	0.288
On-target allowed per possession	0.088	0.107
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.170	0.177
Opponents' inside-box share	59.5%	60.9%
Save rate	67.3%	62.9%
Saves, last 5	2.0	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.19	1.65
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	90.4%	87.0%
Passes, last 5	592	497
Fouls, last 5	9.6	7.8
Cards, last 5	1.2	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	3
Drawn	2
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	13
Goals, away side	7

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 80.8% · Draw 12.7% · Away 6.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Udinese v Como

serie-a · 16:30 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	10	4
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,588	1,713
Matches on record, all seasons	608	76
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	13
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	0.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	1.9
Goals conceded, last 10	0.7	0.8
Clean sheets, last 10	5	6
Failed to score, last 10	5	2
Wins in a row	0	3
Unbeaten run	0	5
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	90	90
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	2.0	1.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	0.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.8	14.6
Shots on target, last 5	5.2	4.8
Shots per possession	0.264	0.250
On-target shots per possession	0.101	0.084
Inside-box shots per possession	0.170	0.175
Share of shots from inside the box	63.2%	71.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.42	1.79
Possession, last 5	47.8%	61.6%
Corners, last 5	4.4	6.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.269	0.211
On-target allowed per possession	0.073	0.059
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.166	0.135
Opponents' inside-box share	59.0%	66.2%
Save rate	74.0%	68.3%
Saves, last 5	2.8	1.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.39	0.76
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	83.8%	87.6%
Passes, last 5	431	486
Fouls, last 5	12.2	12.4
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	1
Drawn	1
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	2
Goals, away side	5

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 20.2% · Draw 26.9% · Away 52.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Dundee Utd v Dundee

scottish-prem · 16:45 UK

Finished 0–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	10	2
Position last season	7	8
Points this season	1	3
Goal difference this season	-4	+1
Elo rating going in	1,504	1,484
Matches on record, all seasons	418	386
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	9
Goals scored, last 5	0.4	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	3	3
Failed to score, last 10	4	3
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	13	14
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.8	12.6
Shots on target, last 5	2.4	4.4
Shots per possession	0.314	0.239
On-target shots per possession	0.097	0.090
Inside-box shots per possession	0.209	0.167
Share of shots from inside the box	67.6%	68.5%
Expected goals, last 5	0.87	1.38
Possession, last 5	50.2%	45.8%
Corners, last 5	3.6	5.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.281	0.256
On-target allowed per possession	0.119	0.088
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.195	0.149
Opponents' inside-box share	69.1%	58.3%
Save rate	67.5%	68.6%
Saves, last 5	4.0	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.44	1.88
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	76.0%	75.6%
Passes, last 5	403	390
Fouls, last 5	13.4	10.2
Cards, last 5	2.6	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	21
Home side won	9
Drawn	7
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	43
Goals, away side	27

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 41.6% · Draw 29.0% · Away 29.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Sparta Rotterdam v Utrecht

eredivisie · 16:45 UK

Finished 3–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	5	16
Position last season	10	6
Points this season	3	0
Goal difference this season	+1	-4
Elo rating going in	1,539	1,630
Matches on record, all seasons	306	567
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	1.8
Goals conceded, last 10	2.1	1.9
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	5	2
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	2
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.6	15.0
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	5.2
Shots per possession	0.280	0.352
On-target shots per possession	0.083	0.142
Inside-box shots per possession	0.194	0.252
Share of shots from inside the box	69.2%	72.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.53	1.65
Possession, last 5	44.6%	45.0%
Corners, last 5	4.6	3.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.287	0.297
On-target allowed per possession	0.100	0.104
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.184	0.177
Opponents' inside-box share	62.0%	61.4%
Save rate	66.2%	67.1%
Saves, last 5	3.8	4.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.38	1.34
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.0%	80.2%
Passes, last 5	370	390
Fouls, last 5	11.6	15.2
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	21
Home side won	4
Drawn	2
Away side won	15
Goals, home side	15
Goals, away side	42

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 36.6% · Draw 27.5% · Away 35.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

AD Ceuta FC v Las Palmas

laliga-2 · 17:00 UK

Finished 0–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	4
Position last season	9	5
Points this season	0	3
Goal difference this season	-4	+1
Elo rating going in	1,468	1,531
Matches on record, all seasons	43	447
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	8
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	4	1
Failed to score, last 10	3	1
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	2
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	7.8	10.6
Shots on target, last 5	3.2	3.2
Shots per possession	0.180	0.218
On-target shots per possession	0.062	0.077
Inside-box shots per possession	0.108	0.116
Share of shots from inside the box	60.0%	53.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.30	—
Possession, last 5	49.0%	57.6%
Corners, last 5	3.8	3.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.311	0.251
On-target allowed per possession	0.114	0.082
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.215	0.173
Opponents' inside-box share	68.0%	69.7%
Save rate	69.2%	67.3%
Saves, last 5	3.8	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.57	—
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.8%	86.6%
Passes, last 5	399	559
Fouls, last 5	14.8	7.8
Cards, last 5	2.8	0.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	0
Drawn	1
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	1
Goals, away side	5

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 32.6% · Draw 29.4% · Away 37.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Albacete v Real Sociedad II

laliga-2 · 17:00 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	13	2
Position last season	11	15
Points this season	0	0
Goal difference this season	-1	-1
Elo rating going in	1,471	1,381
Matches on record, all seasons	341	85
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	0.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	5
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	2	1
Days since last match	6	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.4	12.2
Shots on target, last 5	5.4	4.0
Shots per possession	0.349	0.288
On-target shots per possession	0.125	0.076
Inside-box shots per possession	0.227	0.172
Share of shots from inside the box	63.5%	61.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.05	1.37
Possession, last 5	34.6%	47.8%
Corners, last 5	5.2	5.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.242	0.249
On-target allowed per possession	0.081	0.092
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.139	0.168
Opponents' inside-box share	57.1%	67.3%
Save rate	69.5%	65.7%
Saves, last 5	4.0	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.19	1.04
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	73.2%	77.8%
Passes, last 5	287	378
Fouls, last 5	11.4	13.4
Cards, last 5	1.0	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	1
Drawn	1
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	3
Goals, away side	1

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 52.5% · Draw 25.6% · Away 21.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Estoril v Rio Ave

primeira-liga · 17:00 UK

Finished 0–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	14	18
Position last season	10	13
Points this season	1	0
Goal difference this season	-2	-3
Elo rating going in	1,548	1,532
Matches on record, all seasons	368	498
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	2
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	0.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	0.8	0.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.8	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	0	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	2
Days since last match	6	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.0	11.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.2	2.2
Shots per possession	0.206	0.242
On-target shots per possession	0.068	0.081
Inside-box shots per possession	0.124	0.148
Share of shots from inside the box	61.0%	60.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.02	0.76
Possession, last 5	49.4%	44.6%
Corners, last 5	4.2	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.260	0.277
On-target allowed per possession	0.093	0.094
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.173	0.158
Opponents' inside-box share	69.1%	56.4%
Save rate	57.3%	69.2%
Saves, last 5	1.4	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.88	1.61
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	83.4%	80.2%
Passes, last 5	430	351
Fouls, last 5	11.8	8.2
Cards, last 5	2.8	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	20
Home side won	7
Drawn	4
Away side won	9
Goals, home side	28
Goals, away side	31

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 47.9% · Draw 26.7% · Away 25.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Valencia v Celta Vigo

la-liga · 17:30 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	9	6
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,625	1,637
Matches on record, all seasons	608	532
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	2	1
Unbeaten run	4	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	91	91
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.6	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.6	2.2
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.6	7.0
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	3.2
Shots per possession	0.330	0.156
On-target shots per possession	0.104	0.075
Inside-box shots per possession	0.218	0.111
Share of shots from inside the box	65.7%	66.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.24	1.02
Possession, last 5	44.0%	46.2%
Corners, last 5	4.0	2.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.206	0.288
On-target allowed per possession	0.070	0.099
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.142	0.192
Opponents' inside-box share	71.0%	65.5%
Save rate	69.5%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	2.6	4.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.36	1.74
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	78.8%	83.4%
Passes, last 5	374	456
Fouls, last 5	9.4	11.2
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	28
Home side won	14
Drawn	6
Away side won	8
Goals, home side	44
Goals, away side	35

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 38.5% · Draw 29.9% · Away 31.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Fenerbahçe v Konyaspor

super-lig · 18:30 UK

Finished 4–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	9	6
Position last season	2	9
Points this season	0	0
Goal difference this season	-1	-1
Elo rating going in	1,842	1,577
Matches on record, all seasons	535	461
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	3
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	2.1	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	3	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	4
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	19.6	11.4
Shots on target, last 5	7.8	3.8
Shots per possession	0.293	0.255
On-target shots per possession	0.112	0.098
Inside-box shots per possession	0.171	0.177
Share of shots from inside the box	57.6%	70.2%
Expected goals, last 5	2.22	0.99
Possession, last 5	58.4%	43.6%
Corners, last 5	6.8	3.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.281	0.260
On-target allowed per possession	0.096	0.101
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.156	0.147
Opponents' inside-box share	56.1%	54.5%
Save rate	64.3%	71.6%
Saves, last 5	2.2	5.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.19	1.91
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	85.0%	80.2%
Passes, last 5	513	358
Fouls, last 5	10.4	13.8
Cards, last 5	3.4	2.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	26
Home side won	15
Drawn	4
Away side won	7
Goals, home side	52
Goals, away side	27

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 71.4% · Draw 17.5% · Away 11.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Estac Troyes v Paris FC

ligue-1 · 18:45 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	—	11
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,391	1,596
Matches on record, all seasons	190	34
Recent form
Points, last 5	2	9
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	0.7	1.9
Goals conceded, last 10	2.0	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	0	2
Failed to score, last 10	4	2
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	1	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	1,176	97
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	0.6	2.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.6	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	6.4	13.4
Shots on target, last 5	2.4	5.4
Shots per possession	0.186	0.298
On-target shots per possession	0.073	0.113
Inside-box shots per possession	0.115	0.232
Share of shots from inside the box	64.8%	78.4%
Expected goals, last 5	0.51	1.61
Possession, last 5	38.4%	46.6%
Corners, last 5	3.2	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.353	0.232
On-target allowed per possession	0.127	0.070
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.226	0.152
Opponents' inside-box share	62.8%	64.6%
Save rate	71.2%	70.6%
Saves, last 5	5.4	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.51	1.18
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.0%	83.0%
Passes, last 5	348	431
Fouls, last 5	7.8	9.8
Cards, last 5	1.0	3.0

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 29.2% · Draw 27.4% · Away 43.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Genoa v Napoli

serie-a · 18:45 UK

Finished 0–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	16	2
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,570	1,770
Matches on record, all seasons	570	608
Recent form
Points, last 5	2	10
Goals scored, last 5	0.2	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	0.6
Goals scored, last 10	0.7	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	0.7
Clean sheets, last 10	3	6
Failed to score, last 10	6	2
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	0	2
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	90	90
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	0.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	8.8	14.2
Shots on target, last 5	1.8	5.2
Shots per possession	0.216	0.231
On-target shots per possession	0.057	0.070
Inside-box shots per possession	0.118	0.147
Share of shots from inside the box	56.0%	64.1%
Expected goals, last 5	0.72	1.49
Possession, last 5	52.6%	58.8%
Corners, last 5	3.4	5.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.242	0.242
On-target allowed per possession	0.088	0.081
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.165	0.155
Opponents' inside-box share	68.3%	63.3%
Save rate	69.5%	71.4%
Saves, last 5	2.8	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.44	0.90
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.4%	89.2%
Passes, last 5	416	583
Fouls, last 5	10.0	7.6
Cards, last 5	0.8	0.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	30
Home side won	2
Drawn	8
Away side won	20
Goals, home side	27
Goals, away side	61

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 19.8% · Draw 30.2% · Away 50.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Nice v Lorient

ligue-1 · 18:45 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	16	10
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,559	1,548
Matches on record, all seasons	588	448
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	4	3
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	3	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	85	97
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.2	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.4	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.0	11.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	4.4
Shots per possession	0.235	0.225
On-target shots per possession	0.075	0.096
Inside-box shots per possession	0.157	0.138
Share of shots from inside the box	63.6%	59.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.35	1.57
Possession, last 5	50.0%	44.0%
Corners, last 5	6.0	4.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.247	0.228
On-target allowed per possession	0.074	0.076
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.153	0.151
Opponents' inside-box share	59.5%	66.9%
Save rate	66.7%	71.6%
Saves, last 5	2.5	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.07	1.47
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	83.8%	84.4%
Passes, last 5	434	391
Fouls, last 5	9.6	8.2
Cards, last 5	1.2	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	24
Home side won	10
Drawn	9
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	33
Goals, away side	26

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 44.4% · Draw 27.7% · Away 27.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Parma v Cagliari

serie-a · 18:45 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	12	14
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,562	1,555
Matches on record, all seasons	380	532
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	10
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	0.8	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	4
Wins in a row	1	2
Unbeaten run	1	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	90	90
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.2	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	0.8
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.8
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.6	15.4
Shots on target, last 5	2.6	5.0
Shots per possession	0.188	0.302
On-target shots per possession	0.059	0.085
Inside-box shots per possession	0.114	0.194
Share of shots from inside the box	62.7%	63.9%
Expected goals, last 5	0.84	1.64
Possession, last 5	42.2%	44.4%
Corners, last 5	3.2	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.226	0.232
On-target allowed per possession	0.076	0.087
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.149	0.157
Opponents' inside-box share	66.3%	67.5%
Save rate	68.7%	65.6%
Saves, last 5	3.4	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.02	1.38
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.6%	79.4%
Passes, last 5	349	395
Fouls, last 5	11.0	9.4
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	20
Home side won	4
Drawn	7
Away side won	9
Goals, home side	23
Goals, away side	28

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 38.1% · Draw 32.4% · Away 29.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Toulouse v Lyon

ligue-1 · 18:45 UK

Finished 0–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	9	4
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,568	1,660
Matches on record, all seasons	512	586
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	9
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.8	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	3	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	4	0
Losses in a row	0	2
Days since last match	97	97
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.0	13.6
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	5.4
Shots per possession	0.267	0.244
On-target shots per possession	0.082	0.095
Inside-box shots per possession	0.146	0.164
Share of shots from inside the box	53.4%	67.0%
Expected goals, last 5	0.96	1.87
Possession, last 5	40.2%	48.8%
Corners, last 5	3.4	9.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.230	0.300
On-target allowed per possession	0.090	0.101
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.146	0.214
Opponents' inside-box share	55.3%	67.5%
Save rate	66.2%	70.3%
Saves, last 5	3.8	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.30	1.43
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	78.0%	82.2%
Passes, last 5	296	404
Fouls, last 5	14.2	9.6
Cards, last 5	3.0	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	28
Home side won	6
Drawn	5
Away side won	17
Goals, home side	32
Goals, away side	55

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 36.4% · Draw 28.3% · Away 35.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Heerenveen v PEC Zwolle

eredivisie · 19:00 UK

Finished 0–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	6	14
Position last season	8	15
Points this season	4	0
Goal difference this season	+1	-4
Elo rating going in	1,587	1,492
Matches on record, all seasons	556	440
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	3
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	2.5
Clean sheets, last 10	3	1
Failed to score, last 10	3	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	4
Days since last match	6	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	1.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	3.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.4	7.8
Shots on target, last 5	5.0	2.8
Shots per possession	0.243	0.226
On-target shots per possession	0.100	0.076
Inside-box shots per possession	0.167	0.141
Share of shots from inside the box	69.1%	61.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.12	0.67
Possession, last 5	51.6%	42.2%
Corners, last 5	5.0	3.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.389	0.326
On-target allowed per possession	0.129	0.121
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.242	0.207
Opponents' inside-box share	62.4%	64.1%
Save rate	77.4%	64.8%
Saves, last 5	4.0	4.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.85	1.96
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	83.0%	76.0%
Passes, last 5	485	354
Fouls, last 5	8.8	11.6
Cards, last 5	1.0	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	25
Home side won	10
Drawn	7
Away side won	8
Goals, home side	40
Goals, away side	36

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 60.2% · Draw 20.9% · Away 19.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Eldense v Cadiz

laliga-2 · 19:30 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	21	3
Position last season	—	18
Points this season	0	1
Goal difference this season	-3	+0
Elo rating going in	1,393	1,375
Matches on record, all seasons	85	407
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	0.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.9	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	5	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.6	8.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.6	2.8
Shots per possession	0.289	0.220
On-target shots per possession	0.087	0.069
Inside-box shots per possession	0.180	0.137
Share of shots from inside the box	60.7%	63.8%
Expected goals, last 5	—	1.12
Possession, last 5	43.0%	43.5%
Corners, last 5	5.6	2.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.261	0.269
On-target allowed per possession	0.097	0.101
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.190	0.187
Opponents' inside-box share	70.8%	66.2%
Save rate	64.8%	63.8%
Saves, last 5	3.4	4.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	—	2.93
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	76.6%	79.5%
Passes, last 5	341	367
Fouls, last 5	14.6	11.5
Cards, last 5	3.2	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	1
Drawn	0
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	3
Goals, away side	5

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 40.4% · Draw 31.0% · Away 28.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Espanyol v Real Madrid

la-liga · 19:30 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	—
Position last season	11	2
Points this season	3	—
Goal difference this season	+3	—
Elo rating going in	1,573	1,843
Matches on record, all seasons	621	608
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	12
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	4	3
Failed to score, last 10	4	1
Wins in a row	1	3
Unbeaten run	4	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	6	91
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.2	2.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.6	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.4	13.4
Shots on target, last 5	5.4	4.4
Shots per possession	0.304	0.265
On-target shots per possession	0.094	0.106
Inside-box shots per possession	0.185	0.183
Share of shots from inside the box	58.9%	71.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.22	1.44
Possession, last 5	46.8%	61.6%
Corners, last 5	3.8	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.248	0.314
On-target allowed per possession	0.088	0.092
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.170	0.201
Opponents' inside-box share	67.2%	66.0%
Save rate	72.2%	70.6%
Saves, last 5	3.2	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.12	0.96
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	74.6%	90.0%
Passes, last 5	368	584
Fouls, last 5	13.4	10.0
Cards, last 5	2.2	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	28
Home side won	3
Drawn	2
Away side won	23
Goals, home side	14
Goals, away side	72

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 13.1% · Draw 20.9% · Away 66.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Sporting CP v Alverca

primeira-liga · 19:30 UK

Finished 3–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	15
Position last season	2	11
Points this season	4	1
Goal difference this season	+1	-2
Elo rating going in	1,900	1,572
Matches on record, all seasons	530	36
Recent form
Points, last 5	13	2
Goals scored, last 5	3.4	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	2.6	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	2	0
Failed to score, last 10	0	4
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	7	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.8	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.4	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.0	10.8
Shots on target, last 5	6.2	3.2
Shots per possession	0.241	0.240
On-target shots per possession	0.097	0.085
Inside-box shots per possession	0.168	0.150
Share of shots from inside the box	68.6%	62.2%
Expected goals, last 5	2.24	1.19
Possession, last 5	58.0%	45.6%
Corners, last 5	4.4	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.291	0.235
On-target allowed per possession	0.095	0.087
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.172	0.133
Opponents' inside-box share	59.4%	57.9%
Save rate	67.9%	65.2%
Saves, last 5	2.2	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.82	1.19
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	88.6%	81.4%
Passes, last 5	511	360
Fouls, last 5	10.6	13.4
Cards, last 5	1.6	3.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	2
Drawn	0
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	6
Goals, away side	1

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 78.8% · Draw 13.0% · Away 8.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.