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The data behind the ratings

Sunday 23 August 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

GO Ahead Eagles v ADO Den Haag

eredivisie · 10:15 UK

Finished 3–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	16
Position last season	12	—
Points this season	4	0
Goal difference this season	+3	-5
Elo rating going in	1,557	1,416
Matches on record, all seasons	276	386
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	0
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	0.4
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	3.2
Goals scored, last 10	2.1	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	2.7
Clean sheets, last 10	4	0
Failed to score, last 10	3	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	6
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.8	12.2
Shots on target, last 5	5.2	2.4
Shots per possession	0.247	0.274
On-target shots per possession	0.108	0.082
Inside-box shots per possession	0.168	0.184
Share of shots from inside the box	70.2%	65.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.56	0.98
Possession, last 5	50.4%	54.6%
Corners, last 5	6.4	4.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.464	0.254
On-target allowed per possession	0.107	0.127
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.299	0.175
Opponents' inside-box share	64.2%	68.0%
Save rate	74.2%	59.9%
Saves, last 5	4.2	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.66	2.94
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.2%	79.6%
Passes, last 5	410	429
Fouls, last 5	8.2	14.4
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	3
Drawn	1
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	9
Goals, away side	9

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 54.8% · Draw 23.5% · Away 21.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

West Brom v Burnley

championship · 11:00 UK

Finished 3–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	9
Position last season	19	19
Points this season	3	1
Goal difference this season	+1	+0
Elo rating going in	1,501	1,591
Matches on record, all seasons	669	619
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	3
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	0.6	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	0.8
Goals conceded, last 10	0.5	1.9
Clean sheets, last 10	7	1
Failed to score, last 10	3	4
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.0	12.6
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	4.4
Shots per possession	0.241	0.250
On-target shots per possession	0.086	0.081
Inside-box shots per possession	0.164	0.149
Share of shots from inside the box	67.7%	60.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.55	1.13
Possession, last 5	52.0%	48.4%
Corners, last 5	3.2	3.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.230	0.324
On-target allowed per possession	0.062	0.099
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.166	0.221
Opponents' inside-box share	70.2%	69.7%
Save rate	78.5%	64.8%
Saves, last 5	3.4	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.39	1.53
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.4%	81.4%
Passes, last 5	440	410
Fouls, last 5	10.0	13.6
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	12
Home side won	3
Drawn	7
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	17
Goals, away side	10

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 33.4% · Draw 29.1% · Away 37.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

PSV Eindhoven v Groningen

eredivisie · 12:30 UK

Finished 5–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	2
Position last season	1	9
Points this season	4	6
Goal difference this season	+1	+4
Elo rating going in	1,844	1,541
Matches on record, all seasons	538	522
Recent form
Points, last 5	11	12
Goals scored, last 5	3.0	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	3.0	1.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	1	3
Failed to score, last 10	0	2
Wins in a row	1	2
Unbeaten run	8	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	2.2	1.8
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	1.4
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.0	13.0
Shots on target, last 5	6.6	6.4
Shots per possession	0.277	0.299
On-target shots per possession	0.117	0.122
Inside-box shots per possession	0.191	0.191
Share of shots from inside the box	68.3%	62.7%
Expected goals, last 5	2.20	1.53
Possession, last 5	59.4%	47.8%
Corners, last 5	7.0	3.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.294	0.258
On-target allowed per possession	0.139	0.095
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.189	0.170
Opponents' inside-box share	62.7%	65.1%
Save rate	67.2%	69.2%
Saves, last 5	3.0	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.92	1.37
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	86.2%	76.0%
Passes, last 5	543	382
Fouls, last 5	8.0	12.2
Cards, last 5	0.8	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	30
Home side won	19
Drawn	7
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	69
Goals, away side	32

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 70.9% · Draw 16.4% · Away 12.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Angers v Lille

ligue-1 · 13:00 UK

Finished 0–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	13	3
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,477	1,688
Matches on record, all seasons	362	586
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	8
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	0.6
Goals scored, last 10	0.7	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.8	0.6
Clean sheets, last 10	2	5
Failed to score, last 10	3	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	98	98
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.0	12.0
Shots on target, last 5	3.0	4.2
Shots per possession	0.236	0.210
On-target shots per possession	0.074	0.081
Inside-box shots per possession	0.160	0.147
Share of shots from inside the box	67.0%	69.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.05	1.18
Possession, last 5	38.4%	60.0%
Corners, last 5	3.6	5.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.276	0.176
On-target allowed per possession	0.115	0.062
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.172	0.115
Opponents' inside-box share	61.2%	68.0%
Save rate	71.2%	71.0%
Saves, last 5	5.6	1.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.97	0.46
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.0%	85.8%
Passes, last 5	342	514
Fouls, last 5	10.0	9.4
Cards, last 5	1.8	2.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	20
Home side won	7
Drawn	4
Away side won	9
Goals, home side	16
Goals, away side	24

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 19.3% · Draw 25.8% · Away 54.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Brighton v Aston Villa

premier-league · 13:00 UK

Finished 4–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	8	4
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,742	1,797
Matches on record, all seasons	624	638
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	1.9
Clean sheets, last 10	4	1
Failed to score, last 10	3	1
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	0	3
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	91	91
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.0	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.8	11.8
Shots on target, last 5	5.8	4.6
Shots per possession	0.239	0.241
On-target shots per possession	0.092	0.093
Inside-box shots per possession	0.176	0.149
Share of shots from inside the box	73.1%	61.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.83	1.27
Possession, last 5	62.2%	52.8%
Corners, last 5	6.2	5.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.235	0.290
On-target allowed per possession	0.087	0.108
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.172	0.187
Opponents' inside-box share	71.2%	66.9%
Save rate	71.4%	65.7%
Saves, last 5	2.2	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.21	1.37
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	85.4%	85.6%
Passes, last 5	531	446
Fouls, last 5	10.8	9.6
Cards, last 5	1.0	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	16
Home side won	2
Drawn	5
Away side won	9
Goals, home side	15
Goals, away side	30

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 43.0% · Draw 27.2% · Away 29.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Manchester City v Bournemouth

premier-league · 13:00 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	2	6
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,902	1,776
Matches on record, all seasons	608	620
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	9
Goals scored, last 5	2.2	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	2.0	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	0.8
Clean sheets, last 10	4	4
Failed to score, last 10	0	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	18
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	91	91
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.2	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.0	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	0.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	18.2	14.0
Shots on target, last 5	5.2	4.6
Shots per possession	0.308	0.272
On-target shots per possession	0.096	0.077
Inside-box shots per possession	0.217	0.154
Share of shots from inside the box	71.0%	57.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.80	1.55
Possession, last 5	62.8%	50.2%
Corners, last 5	8.6	6.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.249	0.253
On-target allowed per possession	0.086	0.065
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.178	0.191
Opponents' inside-box share	73.7%	75.8%
Save rate	66.7%	71.9%
Saves, last 5	2.4	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.54	1.25
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	88.2%	82.6%
Passes, last 5	570	431
Fouls, last 5	7.6	12.0
Cards, last 5	1.6	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	18
Home side won	16
Drawn	1
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	53
Goals, away side	12

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 63.8% · Draw 19.6% · Away 16.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Guimaraes v Nacional

primeira-liga · 14:30 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	17	2
Position last season	8	14
Points this season	0	4
Goal difference this season	-2	+2
Elo rating going in	1,583	1,497
Matches on record, all seasons	530	360
Recent form
Points, last 5	0	7
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	2.4	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	0.9
Clean sheets, last 10	3	5
Failed to score, last 10	4	3
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	3
Losses in a row	5	0
Days since last match	9	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.4	14.4
Shots on target, last 5	3.4	3.4
Shots per possession	0.257	0.260
On-target shots per possession	0.066	0.091
Inside-box shots per possession	0.157	0.138
Share of shots from inside the box	61.0%	53.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.25	1.34
Possession, last 5	57.2%	53.8%
Corners, last 5	5.0	5.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.206	0.307
On-target allowed per possession	0.096	0.085
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.132	0.186
Opponents' inside-box share	64.6%	60.6%
Save rate	65.6%	77.3%
Saves, last 5	2.2	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.53	1.33
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.0%	79.6%
Passes, last 5	451	385
Fouls, last 5	13.4	13.6
Cards, last 5	2.6	3.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	22
Home side won	9
Drawn	5
Away side won	8
Goals, home side	35
Goals, away side	29

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 56.4% · Draw 24.9% · Away 18.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Cambuur v Feyenoord

eredivisie · 14:45 UK

Finished 2–5. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	17	5
Position last season	—	2
Points this season	0	4
Goal difference this season	-6	+1
Elo rating going in	1,347	1,736
Matches on record, all seasons	174	541
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	11
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	0.7	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	2.3	0.8
Clean sheets, last 10	1	3
Failed to score, last 10	6	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	11
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	0.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	19.8	20.2
Shots on target, last 5	6.2	6.4
Shots per possession	0.269	0.335
On-target shots per possession	0.069	0.119
Inside-box shots per possession	0.175	0.241
Share of shots from inside the box	64.5%	72.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.61	3.02
Possession, last 5	58.2%	51.0%
Corners, last 5	9.0	8.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.309	0.213
On-target allowed per possession	0.132	0.056
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.193	0.147
Opponents' inside-box share	63.3%	66.6%
Save rate	62.1%	72.2%
Saves, last 5	3.8	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.35	1.02
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.6%	83.2%
Passes, last 5	455	434
Fouls, last 5	12.0	9.0
Cards, last 5	2.6	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	0
Drawn	0
Away side won	10
Goals, home side	6
Goals, away side	25

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 11.3% · Draw 16.2% · Away 72.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Atletico Madrid v Villarreal

la-liga · 15:00 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	3
Position last season	4	3
Points this season	3	1
Goal difference this season	+2	+0
Elo rating going in	1,733	1,724
Matches on record, all seasons	609	571
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	2.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	3	0
Failed to score, last 10	1	2
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	4	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.0	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.4
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.2	10.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	4.6
Shots per possession	0.242	0.231
On-target shots per possession	0.082	0.090
Inside-box shots per possession	0.159	0.157
Share of shots from inside the box	68.5%	66.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.54	1.25
Possession, last 5	49.8%	52.2%
Corners, last 5	7.6	6.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.268	0.271
On-target allowed per possession	0.086	0.088
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.185	0.162
Opponents' inside-box share	67.4%	62.7%
Save rate	67.7%	73.4%
Saves, last 5	3.8	4.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.45	1.45
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	86.0%	85.8%
Passes, last 5	479	474
Fouls, last 5	11.8	10.0
Cards, last 5	2.4	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	30
Home side won	11
Drawn	11
Away side won	8
Goals, home side	37
Goals, away side	33

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 51.4% · Draw 25.5% · Away 23.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Eibar v Valladolid

laliga-2 · 15:00 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	10	9
Position last season	8	16
Points this season	0	0
Goal difference this season	-2	-2
Elo rating going in	1,497	1,377
Matches on record, all seasons	483	481
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	3
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	0.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	5	3
Failed to score, last 10	1	6
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	2	4
Days since last match	7	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.0	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.6	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	0.4
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	2.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.8	10.2
Shots on target, last 5	2.8	2.4
Shots per possession	0.233	0.177
On-target shots per possession	0.070	0.038
Inside-box shots per possession	0.164	0.117
Share of shots from inside the box	70.4%	68.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.31	1.18
Possession, last 5	49.0%	52.2%
Corners, last 5	4.6	3.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.262	0.206
On-target allowed per possession	0.079	0.080
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.148	0.125
Opponents' inside-box share	54.2%	61.8%
Save rate	70.0%	65.6%
Saves, last 5	3.2	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.44	3.29
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.2%	84.8%
Passes, last 5	407	421
Fouls, last 5	10.0	14.0
Cards, last 5	2.0	3.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	12
Home side won	4
Drawn	3
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	16
Goals, away side	15

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 42.4% · Draw 32.9% · Away 24.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Le Havre v Monaco

ligue-1 · 15:15 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	14	7
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,514	1,656
Matches on record, all seasons	102	510
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	2.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	2	1
Failed to score, last 10	3	1
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	2
Days since last match	98	98
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	2.2
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	2.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.8	13.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.2	5.0
Shots per possession	0.233	0.258
On-target shots per possession	0.083	0.101
Inside-box shots per possession	0.166	0.181
Share of shots from inside the box	73.1%	72.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.19	1.15
Possession, last 5	45.2%	59.8%
Corners, last 5	3.6	6.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.258	0.321
On-target allowed per possession	0.081	0.110
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.179	0.217
Opponents' inside-box share	67.1%	67.7%
Save rate	68.8%	62.8%
Saves, last 5	3.6	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.34	1.10
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.2%	84.6%
Passes, last 5	353	531
Fouls, last 5	15.6	13.6
Cards, last 5	3.0	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	0
Drawn	4
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	4
Goals, away side	8

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 26.1% · Draw 24.6% · Away 49.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Newcastle v Liverpool

premier-league · 15:30 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	12	5
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,727	1,814
Matches on record, all seasons	616	608
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	1	1
Failed to score, last 10	2	0
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	91	91
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.8	14.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	4.8
Shots per possession	0.243	0.261
On-target shots per possession	0.095	0.089
Inside-box shots per possession	0.154	0.173
Share of shots from inside the box	62.2%	65.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.54	1.44
Possession, last 5	50.2%	55.8%
Corners, last 5	4.0	7.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.314	0.293
On-target allowed per possession	0.109	0.122
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.191	0.203
Opponents' inside-box share	61.8%	68.0%
Save rate	71.4%	66.2%
Saves, last 5	4.4	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.18	1.71
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.8%	85.2%
Passes, last 5	446	498
Fouls, last 5	9.0	11.2
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	30
Home side won	4
Drawn	7
Away side won	19
Goals, home side	32
Goals, away side	65

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 24.8% · Draw 24.6% · Away 50.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Eyüpspor v Gaziantep FK

super-lig · 16:00 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	12	3
Position last season	15	12
Points this season	0	1
Goal difference this season	-1	+0
Elo rating going in	1,567	1,542
Matches on record, all seasons	71	257
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	1
Goals scored, last 5	2.2	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	2	1
Failed to score, last 10	4	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	7	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.2	13.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	3.8
Shots per possession	0.210	0.284
On-target shots per possession	0.071	0.104
Inside-box shots per possession	0.100	0.170
Share of shots from inside the box	47.1%	59.4%
Expected goals, last 5	0.92	1.00
Possession, last 5	38.6%	51.8%
Corners, last 5	2.8	5.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.253	0.286
On-target allowed per possession	0.071	0.100
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.157	0.176
Opponents' inside-box share	62.0%	61.4%
Save rate	68.8%	67.2%
Saves, last 5	3.8	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.09	1.71
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	78.0%	82.8%
Passes, last 5	314	426
Fouls, last 5	12.8	10.6
Cards, last 5	1.8	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	3
Drawn	0
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	9
Goals, away side	6

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 31.8% · Draw 30.9% · Away 37.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Trabzonspor v Başakşehir

super-lig · 16:00 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	1
Position last season	3	5
Points this season	1	3
Goal difference this season	+0	+2
Elo rating going in	1,732	1,704
Matches on record, all seasons	535	501
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	12
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	2.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	0.8
Clean sheets, last 10	2	6
Failed to score, last 10	1	3
Wins in a row	0	3
Unbeaten run	1	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.4	14.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	5.4
Shots per possession	0.243	0.294
On-target shots per possession	0.074	0.098
Inside-box shots per possession	0.155	0.213
Share of shots from inside the box	66.3%	74.0%
Expected goals, last 5	0.99	2.12
Possession, last 5	56.2%	51.4%
Corners, last 5	5.4	4.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.291	0.239
On-target allowed per possession	0.078	0.078
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.173	0.145
Opponents' inside-box share	60.3%	59.1%
Save rate	67.9%	74.9%
Saves, last 5	3.0	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.64	0.75
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	85.2%	85.0%
Passes, last 5	440	437
Fouls, last 5	10.6	12.6
Cards, last 5	2.0	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	28
Home side won	9
Drawn	9
Away side won	10
Goals, home side	34
Goals, away side	37

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 43.7% · Draw 27.0% · Away 29.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Frosinone v Juventus

serie-a · 16:30 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	—	6
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,465	1,748
Matches on record, all seasons	114	608
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	6
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	0.6
Clean sheets, last 10	5	6
Failed to score, last 10	5	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	819	91
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.8	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	0.4
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.4	19.4
Shots on target, last 5	5.4	6.2
Shots per possession	0.349	0.289
On-target shots per possession	0.120	0.097
Inside-box shots per possession	0.202	0.201
Share of shots from inside the box	57.1%	69.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.43	1.86
Possession, last 5	44.8%	61.8%
Corners, last 5	7.6	7.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.244	0.250
On-target allowed per possession	0.072	0.065
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.147	0.139
Opponents' inside-box share	58.6%	55.7%
Save rate	68.3%	74.8%
Saves, last 5	1.8	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.06	0.63
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	76.6%	86.2%
Passes, last 5	335	515
Fouls, last 5	9.4	12.0
Cards, last 5	1.4	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	0
Drawn	1
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	4
Goals, away side	13

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 13.6% · Draw 21.2% · Away 65.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Venezia v Lecce

serie-a · 16:30 UK

Finished 0–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	—	17
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,484	1,532
Matches on record, all seasons	76	266
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	0.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	4	5
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	0	2
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	455	91
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.0	0.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.4	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.6	9.4
Shots on target, last 5	3.0	3.8
Shots per possession	0.231	0.265
On-target shots per possession	0.081	0.083
Inside-box shots per possession	0.151	0.177
Share of shots from inside the box	67.5%	65.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.06	0.94
Possession, last 5	45.8%	37.8%
Corners, last 5	4.6	3.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.291	0.193
On-target allowed per possession	0.080	0.069
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.181	0.149
Opponents' inside-box share	63.4%	75.5%
Save rate	67.7%	68.8%
Saves, last 5	2.2	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.63	1.51
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	79.0%	71.6%
Passes, last 5	373	278
Fouls, last 5	14.4	12.6
Cards, last 5	0.8	2.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	0
Drawn	1
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	1
Goals, away side	2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 47.9% · Draw 29.4% · Away 22.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Castellón v Sabadell

laliga-2 · 17:00 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	7
Position last season	6	—
Points this season	3	1
Goal difference this season	+1	+0
Elo rating going in	1,509	1,428
Matches on record, all seasons	129	43
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	0.9
Clean sheets, last 10	2	5
Failed to score, last 10	0	3
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	9	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	1.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	1.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.0	10.8
Shots on target, last 5	6.2	3.2
Shots per possession	0.293	0.184
On-target shots per possession	0.114	0.065
Inside-box shots per possession	0.222	0.093
Share of shots from inside the box	74.5%	47.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.63	—
Possession, last 5	57.2%	48.4%
Corners, last 5	8.0	5.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.185	0.234
On-target allowed per possession	0.078	0.075
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.148	0.114
Opponents' inside-box share	80.1%	48.7%
Save rate	66.7%	75.3%
Saves, last 5	1.2	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.07	—
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	82.4%	76.4%
Passes, last 5	435	396
Fouls, last 5	15.4	14.0
Cards, last 5	1.4	2.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	1
Drawn	1
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	3
Goals, away side	2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 61.9% · Draw 21.9% · Away 16.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Santa Clara v Famalicao

primeira-liga · 17:00 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	11
Position last season	12	5
Points this season	4	1
Goal difference this season	+1	-1
Elo rating going in	1,573	1,642
Matches on record, all seasons	240	240
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	6
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	4	4
Failed to score, last 10	3	1
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.4	12.2
Shots on target, last 5	2.8	3.4
Shots per possession	0.240	0.216
On-target shots per possession	0.065	0.083
Inside-box shots per possession	0.137	0.145
Share of shots from inside the box	54.9%	68.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.28	1.22
Possession, last 5	45.8%	56.8%
Corners, last 5	4.2	6.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.194	0.169
On-target allowed per possession	0.063	0.061
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.123	0.111
Opponents' inside-box share	62.0%	64.2%
Save rate	69.2%	66.0%
Saves, last 5	2.6	1.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.83	0.97
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	79.8%	86.6%
Passes, last 5	351	466
Fouls, last 5	11.4	12.4
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	12
Home side won	3
Drawn	1
Away side won	8
Goals, home side	7
Goals, away side	17

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 34.8% · Draw 31.7% · Away 33.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Sporting Gijon v Burgos

laliga-2 · 17:00 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	7	4
Position last season	9	7
Points this season	1	3
Goal difference this season	+0	+1
Elo rating going in	1,456	1,529
Matches on record, all seasons	535	211
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	13
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	0.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	0.8
Clean sheets, last 10	3	6
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	0	4
Unbeaten run	4	7
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	6	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.6	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.6	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	8.8	12.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	4.2
Shots per possession	0.235	0.250
On-target shots per possession	0.103	0.092
Inside-box shots per possession	0.172	0.184
Share of shots from inside the box	70.2%	72.7%
Expected goals, last 5	0.38	—
Possession, last 5	42.2%	39.6%
Corners, last 5	2.6	3.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.273	0.233
On-target allowed per possession	0.071	0.061
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.164	0.123
Opponents' inside-box share	59.1%	52.2%
Save rate	74.5%	74.0%
Saves, last 5	3.2	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.14	—
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	78.0%	75.8%
Passes, last 5	355	293
Fouls, last 5	12.8	11.6
Cards, last 5	3.2	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	4
Drawn	3
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	9
Goals, away side	6

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 39.1% · Draw 32.5% · Away 28.4% — bet365, pre_match.

Getafe v Racing Santander

la-liga · 17:30 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	3
Position last season	7	1
Points this season	0	1
Goal difference this season	-3	+0
Elo rating going in	1,583	1,559
Matches on record, all seasons	617	289
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	11
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	2.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	0.7	2.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	4	1
Failed to score, last 10	6	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	9
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	3.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	0.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	8.8	16.6
Shots on target, last 5	2.6	6.4
Shots per possession	0.189	0.340
On-target shots per possession	0.054	0.149
Inside-box shots per possession	0.124	0.231
Share of shots from inside the box	63.2%	68.1%
Expected goals, last 5	0.70	2.21
Possession, last 5	47.0%	47.2%
Corners, last 5	3.4	5.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.209	0.253
On-target allowed per possession	0.074	0.080
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.127	0.171
Opponents' inside-box share	63.3%	69.3%
Save rate	71.1%	61.8%
Saves, last 5	3.4	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.79	1.24
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	73.6%	81.8%
Passes, last 5	319	398
Fouls, last 5	15.2	14.8
Cards, last 5	2.6	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	2
Drawn	1
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	4
Goals, away side	3

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 43.2% · Draw 32.3% · Away 24.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Alanyaspor v Beşiktaş

super-lig · 18:30 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	3
Position last season	10	4
Points this season	1	3
Goal difference this season	+0	+1
Elo rating going in	1,585	1,715
Matches on record, all seasons	359	535
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	8
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	2	4
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	1	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.0	19.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.2	6.2
Shots per possession	0.233	0.308
On-target shots per possession	0.083	0.102
Inside-box shots per possession	0.139	0.180
Share of shots from inside the box	60.3%	57.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.23	1.74
Possession, last 5	46.6%	63.2%
Corners, last 5	5.8	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.231	0.303
On-target allowed per possession	0.085	0.098
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.144	0.166
Opponents' inside-box share	60.0%	49.6%
Save rate	68.8%	70.6%
Saves, last 5	3.6	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.31	1.18
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	82.4%	88.2%
Passes, last 5	395	553
Fouls, last 5	14.6	14.0
Cards, last 5	2.4	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	20
Home side won	4
Drawn	6
Away side won	10
Goals, home side	23
Goals, away side	37

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 24.2% · Draw 26.3% · Away 49.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Göztepe v Gençlerbirliği S.K.

super-lig · 18:30 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	6	1
Position last season	6	14
Points this season	1	3
Goal difference this season	+0	+1
Elo rating going in	1,638	1,531
Matches on record, all seasons	251	347
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	12
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	5
Wins in a row	0	3
Unbeaten run	1	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	6	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	19.0	11.6
Shots on target, last 5	5.6	4.6
Shots per possession	0.449	0.244
On-target shots per possession	0.149	0.080
Inside-box shots per possession	0.337	0.135
Share of shots from inside the box	74.6%	54.6%
Expected goals, last 5	2.03	1.55
Possession, last 5	35.4%	45.2%
Corners, last 5	5.4	3.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.219	0.254
On-target allowed per possession	0.059	0.090
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.146	0.194
Opponents' inside-box share	69.2%	79.8%
Save rate	62.6%	70.5%
Saves, last 5	2.8	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.46	1.46
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	67.4%	78.0%
Passes, last 5	230	354
Fouls, last 5	19.6	11.0
Cards, last 5	3.2	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	4
Drawn	0
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	15
Goals, away side	16

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 57.8% · Draw 24.1% · Away 18.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Atalanta v Sassuolo

serie-a · 18:45 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	7	11
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,704	1,562
Matches on record, all seasons	570	456
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	3
Days since last match	93	91
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	2.0	0.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	1.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.6	11.6
Shots on target, last 5	5.0	3.8
Shots per possession	0.251	0.225
On-target shots per possession	0.076	0.071
Inside-box shots per possession	0.166	0.146
Share of shots from inside the box	65.9%	65.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.33	1.53
Possession, last 5	56.0%	56.6%
Corners, last 5	3.8	2.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.267	0.301
On-target allowed per possession	0.089	0.092
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.167	0.185
Opponents' inside-box share	62.3%	59.0%
Save rate	74.9%	70.9%
Saves, last 5	3.6	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.17	1.48
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.4%	87.4%
Passes, last 5	526	503
Fouls, last 5	14.6	11.6
Cards, last 5	1.6	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	24
Home side won	13
Drawn	5
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	48
Goals, away side	27

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 62.5% · Draw 21.8% · Away 15.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Rennes v Paris Saint Germain

ligue-1 · 18:45 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	6	1
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,632	1,809
Matches on record, all seasons	586	585
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	10
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	2.1	2.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	3	5
Failed to score, last 10	1	0
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	1
Days since last match	98	98
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	2.8	2.2
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	0.4
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.8	16.6
Shots on target, last 5	6.0	5.4
Shots per possession	0.300	0.248
On-target shots per possession	0.112	0.088
Inside-box shots per possession	0.202	0.161
Share of shots from inside the box	66.3%	66.2%
Expected goals, last 5	2.13	1.70
Possession, last 5	52.8%	66.2%
Corners, last 5	7.8	7.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.312	0.300
On-target allowed per possession	0.106	0.133
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.219	0.205
Opponents' inside-box share	65.4%	65.7%
Save rate	65.7%	70.4%
Saves, last 5	3.8	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.09	1.38
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	82.6%	90.2%
Passes, last 5	432	705
Fouls, last 5	12.8	5.8
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	31
Home side won	9
Drawn	5
Away side won	17
Goals, home side	28
Goals, away side	57

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 17.8% · Draw 20.5% · Away 61.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Torino v AC Milan

serie-a · 18:45 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	13	5
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,584	1,717
Matches on record, all seasons	532	608
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	0.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	5
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	91	91
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.4	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.4	2.0
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.6	11.8
Shots on target, last 5	3.0	4.0
Shots per possession	0.283	0.233
On-target shots per possession	0.075	0.069
Inside-box shots per possession	0.170	0.145
Share of shots from inside the box	56.7%	60.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.68	1.32
Possession, last 5	46.0%	46.6%
Corners, last 5	4.2	3.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.246	0.276
On-target allowed per possession	0.083	0.101
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.162	0.171
Opponents' inside-box share	66.0%	60.4%
Save rate	66.2%	72.2%
Saves, last 5	3.4	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.82	1.52
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	82.8%	85.2%
Passes, last 5	401	426
Fouls, last 5	12.8	12.6
Cards, last 5	1.6	3.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	28
Home side won	5
Drawn	10
Away side won	13
Goals, home side	30
Goals, away side	48

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 21.2% · Draw 26.1% · Away 52.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Elche v Barcelona

la-liga · 19:30 UK

Finished 0–5. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	—
Position last season	13	1
Points this season	1	—
Goal difference this season	+0	—
Elo rating going in	1,569	1,877
Matches on record, all seasons	443	608
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	9
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	1.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	0.8
Clean sheets, last 10	2	4
Failed to score, last 10	1	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	3	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	6	92
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	1.4
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	1.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.6	11.4
Shots on target, last 5	3.4	4.8
Shots per possession	0.169	0.202
On-target shots per possession	0.066	0.079
Inside-box shots per possession	0.117	0.146
Share of shots from inside the box	70.3%	71.1%
Expected goals, last 5	0.81	1.09
Possession, last 5	57.0%	68.6%
Corners, last 5	3.8	5.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.264	0.299
On-target allowed per possession	0.102	0.092
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.174	0.221
Opponents' inside-box share	63.7%	73.4%
Save rate	66.7%	73.8%
Saves, last 5	2.8	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.98	0.97
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	83.0%	90.6%
Passes, last 5	477	650
Fouls, last 5	15.6	10.2
Cards, last 5	3.2	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	12
Home side won	0
Drawn	1
Away side won	11
Goals, home side	5
Goals, away side	36

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 11.1% · Draw 16.9% · Away 71.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

FC Porto v Arouca

primeira-liga · 19:30 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	1
Position last season	1	9
Points this season	6	6
Goal difference this season	+4	+5
Elo rating going in	1,883	1,600
Matches on record, all seasons	530	306
Recent form
Points, last 5	12	13
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	2.6
Goals conceded, last 5	0.6	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.8	1.9
Goals conceded, last 10	0.8	0.9
Clean sheets, last 10	5	4
Failed to score, last 10	0	1
Wins in a row	3	4
Unbeaten run	3	5
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.0	11.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.6	4.6
Shots per possession	0.271	0.230
On-target shots per possession	0.087	0.071
Inside-box shots per possession	0.173	0.136
Share of shots from inside the box	64.8%	58.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.82	1.28
Possession, last 5	56.8%	50.4%
Corners, last 5	6.6	3.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.218	0.228
On-target allowed per possession	0.074	0.058
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.120	0.142
Opponents' inside-box share	53.8%	60.2%
Save rate	70.5%	66.0%
Saves, last 5	2.4	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.85	1.19
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.8%	83.6%
Passes, last 5	445	441
Fouls, last 5	12.8	12.2
Cards, last 5	0.8	3.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	18
Home side won	15
Drawn	1
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	51
Goals, away side	11

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 78.6% · Draw 14.0% · Away 7.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Tenerife v Almeria

laliga-2 · 19:30 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	2
Position last season	—	3
Points this season	3	3
Goal difference this season	+2	+3
Elo rating going in	1,399	1,527
Matches on record, all seasons	387	537
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	8
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	0.8	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	0.8	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	3	4
Failed to score, last 10	6	2
Wins in a row	1	1
Unbeaten run	1	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.2	10.8
Shots on target, last 5	2.6	3.8
Shots per possession	0.206	0.290
On-target shots per possession	0.057	0.093
Inside-box shots per possession	0.135	0.191
Share of shots from inside the box	64.2%	66.0%
Expected goals, last 5	—	1.19
Possession, last 5	52.4%	46.6%
Corners, last 5	4.2	4.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.186	0.259
On-target allowed per possession	0.054	0.101
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.128	0.185
Opponents' inside-box share	67.6%	71.1%
Save rate	68.2%	74.1%
Saves, last 5	2.2	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	—	1.47
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.2%	79.2%
Passes, last 5	424	383
Fouls, last 5	14.8	13.2
Cards, last 5	2.8	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	14
Home side won	3
Drawn	2
Away side won	9
Goals, home side	9
Goals, away side	20

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 31.5% · Draw 30.4% · Away 38.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.