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The data behind the ratings

Friday 28 August 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

Racing Santander v Elche

la-liga · 17:00 UK

Finished 3–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	13	15
Position last season	1	13
Points this season	1	1
Goal difference this season	-1	-5
Elo rating going in	1,551	1,565
Matches on record, all seasons	290	444
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	5
Goals scored, last 5	2.2	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	2.5	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	1
Days since last match	5	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.2	7.8
Shots on target, last 5	6.0	2.8
Shots per possession	0.324	0.162
On-target shots per possession	0.146	0.061
Inside-box shots per possession	0.222	0.113
Share of shots from inside the box	69.7%	70.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.98	0.67
Possession, last 5	50.4%	53.2%
Corners, last 5	5.6	3.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.249	0.249
On-target allowed per possession	0.069	0.107
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.160	0.174
Opponents' inside-box share	66.3%	67.6%
Save rate	65.4%	61.6%
Saves, last 5	2.4	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.07	1.39
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.0%	81.6%
Passes, last 5	435	471
Fouls, last 5	13.8	15.2
Cards, last 5	2.2	2.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	2
Drawn	1
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	7
Goals, away side	9

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 45.6% · Draw 27.9% · Away 26.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Groningen v Fortuna Sittard

eredivisie · 18:00 UK

Finished 2–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	8
Position last season	9	11
Points this season	6	4
Goal difference this season	+0	+0
Elo rating going in	1,539	1,507
Matches on record, all seasons	523	267
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	2	0
Failed to score, last 10	2	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	1
Days since last match	5	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.2	10.8
Shots on target, last 5	5.8	4.2
Shots per possession	0.286	0.276
On-target shots per possession	0.121	0.114
Inside-box shots per possession	0.186	0.154
Share of shots from inside the box	65.4%	56.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.43	0.82
Possession, last 5	45.4%	35.2%
Corners, last 5	3.2	3.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.267	0.268
On-target allowed per possession	0.101	0.097
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.184	0.186
Opponents' inside-box share	67.3%	69.3%
Save rate	64.3%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	4.0	4.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.03	2.82
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	77.8%	73.6%
Passes, last 5	381	306
Fouls, last 5	9.8	8.0
Cards, last 5	1.4	0.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	13
Home side won	6
Drawn	1
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	18
Goals, away side	14

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 60.9% · Draw 20.8% · Away 18.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Bayern München v VfB Stuttgart

bundesliga · 18:30 UK

Finished 5–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	1	4
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,861	1,667
Matches on record, all seasons	544	480
Recent form
Points, last 5	13	6
Goals scored, last 5	3.4	2.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	3.4	2.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	0	1
Wins in a row	2	0
Unbeaten run	15	4
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	104	104
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	4.0	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.4	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	2.8
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	2.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	19.4	15.6
Shots on target, last 5	7.6	6.4
Shots per possession	0.283	0.275
On-target shots per possession	0.112	0.118
Inside-box shots per possession	0.189	0.178
Share of shots from inside the box	67.5%	64.9%
Expected goals, last 5	2.81	1.82
Possession, last 5	69.8%	49.8%
Corners, last 5	7.2	7.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.403	0.301
On-target allowed per possession	0.152	0.131
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.279	0.207
Opponents' inside-box share	66.6%	68.8%
Save rate	71.2%	66.3%
Saves, last 5	3.6	4.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.13	2.22
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	90.0%	82.0%
Passes, last 5	692	433
Fouls, last 5	6.6	9.0
Cards, last 5	1.2	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	28
Home side won	24
Drawn	2
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	80
Goals, away side	25

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 77.2% · Draw 13.3% · Away 9.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Gençlerbirliği S.K. v Erzurumspor FK

super-lig · 18:30 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	18
Position last season	14	—
Points this season	6	0
Goal difference this season	+2	-7
Elo rating going in	1,546	1,496
Matches on record, all seasons	348	76
Recent form
Points, last 5	12	3
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	2.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	2.3
Clean sheets, last 10	3	1
Failed to score, last 10	4	3
Wins in a row	4	0
Unbeaten run	4	0
Losses in a row	0	2
Days since last match	5	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.0	10.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.6	3.0
Shots per possession	0.229	0.272
On-target shots per possession	0.071	0.089
Inside-box shots per possession	0.129	0.150
Share of shots from inside the box	56.3%	55.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.66	0.41
Possession, last 5	47.8%	47.2%
Corners, last 5	4.0	3.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.250	0.249
On-target allowed per possession	0.092	0.095
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.199	0.182
Opponents' inside-box share	82.1%	73.4%
Save rate	73.1%	59.3%
Saves, last 5	4.6	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.73	1.85
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	78.6%	84.8%
Passes, last 5	374	434
Fouls, last 5	10.6	10.8
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	1
Drawn	1
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	2
Goals, away side	1

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 49.6% · Draw 26.7% · Away 23.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

AC Milan v Venezia

serie-a · 18:45 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	10
Position last season	5	—
Points this season	3	0
Goal difference this season	+1	-2
Elo rating going in	1,725	1,474
Matches on record, all seasons	609	77
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	0.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	2	1
Failed to score, last 10	4	4
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	3
Days since last match	5	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.0	11.4
Shots on target, last 5	4.6	4.0
Shots per possession	0.237	0.227
On-target shots per possession	0.071	0.081
Inside-box shots per possession	0.157	0.149
Share of shots from inside the box	63.1%	67.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.51	1.24
Possession, last 5	49.0%	50.0%
Corners, last 5	3.6	4.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.278	0.306
On-target allowed per possession	0.098	0.085
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.183	0.180
Opponents' inside-box share	66.3%	59.9%
Save rate	70.3%	61.8%
Saves, last 5	2.8	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.61	1.75
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	85.6%	79.4%
Passes, last 5	446	418
Fouls, last 5	12.0	13.2
Cards, last 5	2.8	0.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	4
Drawn	0
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	11
Goals, away side	0

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 68.2% · Draw 20.1% · Away 11.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Lille v Paris Saint Germain

ligue-1 · 18:45 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	6
Position last season	3	1
Points this season	3	1
Goal difference this season	+2	+0
Elo rating going in	1,694	1,806
Matches on record, all seasons	587	586
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	8
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	0.6	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	2.2
Goals conceded, last 10	0.5	0.9
Clean sheets, last 10	6	5
Failed to score, last 10	2	0
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	5	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	2.0	2.4
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.2	0.8
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.4	17.0
Shots on target, last 5	5.4	4.4
Shots per possession	0.215	0.248
On-target shots per possession	0.096	0.087
Inside-box shots per possession	0.151	0.154
Share of shots from inside the box	69.8%	63.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.32	1.53
Possession, last 5	56.2%	65.8%
Corners, last 5	5.2	8.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.189	0.290
On-target allowed per possession	0.054	0.122
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.126	0.193
Opponents' inside-box share	68.9%	63.5%
Save rate	73.7%	68.9%
Saves, last 5	2.0	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.82	1.45
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.6%	89.4%
Passes, last 5	473	689
Fouls, last 5	10.2	6.4
Cards, last 5	2.6	0.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	3
Drawn	9
Away side won	20
Goals, home side	30
Goals, away side	68

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 20.5% · Draw 24.4% · Away 55.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Crystal Palace v Manchester City

premier-league · 19:00 UK

Finished 1–4. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	8	6
Position last season	15	2
Points this season	0	3
Goal difference this season	-2	+1
Elo rating going in	1,691	1,907
Matches on record, all seasons	590	609
Recent form
Points, last 5	2	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	0.8	2.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.8	0.9
Clean sheets, last 10	2	4
Failed to score, last 10	5	0
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	6	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.4	16.6
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	5.6
Shots per possession	0.240	0.298
On-target shots per possession	0.078	0.095
Inside-box shots per possession	0.182	0.211
Share of shots from inside the box	76.7%	71.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.61	1.96
Possession, last 5	45.2%	61.0%
Corners, last 5	3.2	8.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.254	0.234
On-target allowed per possession	0.087	0.085
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.183	0.170
Opponents' inside-box share	72.2%	75.0%
Save rate	63.0%	68.7%
Saves, last 5	3.0	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.73	1.12
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	78.8%	88.0%
Passes, last 5	398	573
Fouls, last 5	8.2	8.8
Cards, last 5	1.2	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	26
Home side won	3
Drawn	5
Away side won	18
Goals, home side	21
Goals, away side	63

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 19.3% · Draw 23.0% · Away 57.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Tenerife v Sporting Gijon

laliga-2 · 19:00 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	2
Position last season	—	9
Points this season	6	4
Goal difference this season	+3	+1
Elo rating going in	1,411	1,466
Matches on record, all seasons	388	536
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	13
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	0.6
Goals scored, last 10	0.6	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	0.7	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	4	3
Failed to score, last 10	6	2
Wins in a row	2	1
Unbeaten run	2	5
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	5	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	0.4	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.4	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.0	9.8
Shots on target, last 5	2.6	5.4
Shots per possession	0.221	0.221
On-target shots per possession	0.055	0.095
Inside-box shots per possession	0.131	0.159
Share of shots from inside the box	59.9%	69.6%
Expected goals, last 5	—	0.38
Possession, last 5	47.4%	44.2%
Corners, last 5	4.0	3.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.178	0.261
On-target allowed per possession	0.052	0.069
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.124	0.157
Opponents' inside-box share	67.7%	59.3%
Save rate	69.7%	74.0%
Saves, last 5	2.4	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	—	1.14
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.0%	79.0%
Passes, last 5	396	373
Fouls, last 5	14.0	13.6
Cards, last 5	2.2	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	16
Home side won	6
Drawn	4
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	17
Goals, away side	17

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 43.1% · Draw 29.6% · Away 27.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Wrexham v Birmingham

championship · 19:00 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	13	10
Position last season	7	10
Points this season	2	2
Goal difference this season	+0	+0
Elo rating going in	1,554	1,543
Matches on record, all seasons	94	732
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	9
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	3	7
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	6	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.6	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.6	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.8	12.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	4.0
Shots per possession	0.265	0.216
On-target shots per possession	0.084	0.084
Inside-box shots per possession	0.168	0.147
Share of shots from inside the box	61.3%	67.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.47	1.60
Possession, last 5	46.8%	52.4%
Corners, last 5	6.8	6.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.262	0.260
On-target allowed per possession	0.105	0.078
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.171	0.173
Opponents' inside-box share	65.2%	65.2%
Save rate	67.6%	68.5%
Saves, last 5	3.2	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.18	1.21
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	79.4%	69.0%
Passes, last 5	387	355
Fouls, last 5	14.2	11.2
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	0
Drawn	2
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	3
Goals, away side	7

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 39.4% · Draw 28.9% · Away 31.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Rio Ave v Sporting CP

primeira-liga · 19:15 UK

Finished 0–4. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	9	1
Position last season	13	2
Points this season	3	7
Goal difference this season	-1	+3
Elo rating going in	1,544	1,902
Matches on record, all seasons	499	531
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	13
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	3.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	2.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	4	0
Wins in a row	1	2
Unbeaten run	1	8
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	6	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	3.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	8.0	11.2
Shots on target, last 5	2.4	4.6
Shots per possession	0.220	0.217
On-target shots per possession	0.070	0.089
Inside-box shots per possession	0.135	0.147
Share of shots from inside the box	63.2%	63.4%
Expected goals, last 5	0.58	1.44
Possession, last 5	44.8%	61.4%
Corners, last 5	3.2	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.287	0.276
On-target allowed per possession	0.098	0.084
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.164	0.158
Opponents' inside-box share	56.3%	55.6%
Save rate	71.6%	70.0%
Saves, last 5	3.8	1.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.71	0.73
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.0%	89.6%
Passes, last 5	355	476
Fouls, last 5	9.2	10.4
Cards, last 5	2.4	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	30
Home side won	4
Drawn	6
Away side won	20
Goals, home side	24
Goals, away side	56

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 11.6% · Draw 16.8% · Away 71.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Alaves v Villarreal

la-liga · 19:30 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	7
Position last season	14	3
Points this season	4	2
Goal difference this season	+3	+0
Elo rating going in	1,591	1,726
Matches on record, all seasons	390	572
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	2.2
Goals conceded, last 5	0.6	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	2.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	3	0
Failed to score, last 10	0	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	2	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	8	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	1.2
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	1.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.2	11.2
Shots on target, last 5	5.0	5.4
Shots per possession	0.314	0.238
On-target shots per possession	0.103	0.102
Inside-box shots per possession	0.210	0.167
Share of shots from inside the box	65.9%	69.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.48	1.75
Possession, last 5	41.2%	53.0%
Corners, last 5	5.8	6.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.192	0.289
On-target allowed per possession	0.064	0.092
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.117	0.161
Opponents' inside-box share	60.2%	58.9%
Save rate	63.1%	71.2%
Saves, last 5	2.2	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.60	1.25
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	74.6%	87.4%
Passes, last 5	293	498
Fouls, last 5	14.2	10.0
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	18
Home side won	8
Drawn	3
Away side won	7
Goals, home side	24
Goals, away side	32

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 30.3% · Draw 27.1% · Away 42.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.