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The data behind the ratings

Saturday 29 August 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

Blackpool v Peterborough

league-one · 11:30 UK

Finished 4–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	13
Position last season	13	18
Points this season	4	3
Goal difference this season	+1	-1
Elo rating going in	1,432	1,341
Matches on record, all seasons	679	687
Recent form
Points, last 5	13	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	0.4	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	0.9
Goals conceded, last 10	0.4	1.9
Clean sheets, last 10	6	1
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	1	1
Unbeaten run	6	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.8	12.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.2	5.0
Shots per possession	0.295	0.222
On-target shots per possession	0.103	0.074
Inside-box shots per possession	0.215	0.134
Share of shots from inside the box	70.9%	59.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.46	1.73
Possession, last 5	35.0%	53.2%
Corners, last 5	5.5	6.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.209	0.381
On-target allowed per possession	0.053	0.155
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.125	0.281
Opponents' inside-box share	52.4%	71.7%
Save rate	82.4%	70.0%
Saves, last 5	3.8	5.5
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.88	3.22
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	63.8%	77.8%
Passes, last 5	255	411
Fouls, last 5	10.2	9.5
Cards, last 5	1.6	0.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	21
Home side won	11
Drawn	3
Away side won	7
Goals, home side	36
Goals, away side	38

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 52.5% · Draw 23.8% · Away 23.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Derby v Swansea

championship · 11:30 UK

Finished 0–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	18	5
Position last season	8	11
Points this season	1	4
Goal difference this season	-1	+1
Elo rating going in	1,514	1,539
Matches on record, all seasons	702	641
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	11
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	0	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	1	5
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.4	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.8	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.0	12.2
Shots on target, last 5	5.6	5.0
Shots per possession	0.288	0.213
On-target shots per possession	0.100	0.076
Inside-box shots per possession	0.213	0.142
Share of shots from inside the box	74.5%	68.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.41	1.24
Possession, last 5	46.4%	60.0%
Corners, last 5	5.4	5.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.257	0.317
On-target allowed per possession	0.091	0.102
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.171	0.231
Opponents' inside-box share	68.0%	74.5%
Save rate	70.5%	69.1%
Saves, last 5	5.2	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.78	1.32
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	73.8%	80.4%
Passes, last 5	349	513
Fouls, last 5	13.0	8.6
Cards, last 5	3.6	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	12
Home side won	5
Drawn	3
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	15
Goals, away side	12

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 41.2% · Draw 28.7% · Away 30.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Liverpool v Nottingham Forest

premier-league · 11:30 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	9	6
Position last season	5	16
Points this season	1	0
Goal difference this season	+0	-1
Elo rating going in	1,813	1,697
Matches on record, all seasons	609	662
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	2.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	0.9
Clean sheets, last 10	1	3
Failed to score, last 10	0	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	6	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.6	12.2
Shots on target, last 5	5.6	4.2
Shots per possession	0.276	0.257
On-target shots per possession	0.090	0.102
Inside-box shots per possession	0.179	0.175
Share of shots from inside the box	64.6%	70.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.65	1.48
Possession, last 5	57.4%	46.2%
Corners, last 5	7.2	3.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.314	0.261
On-target allowed per possession	0.124	0.077
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.213	0.149
Opponents' inside-box share	67.6%	58.5%
Save rate	68.1%	76.9%
Saves, last 5	2.8	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.55	1.93
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	85.8%	80.2%
Passes, last 5	493	403
Fouls, last 5	12.2	11.4
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	4
Drawn	1
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	9
Goals, away side	8

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 63.0% · Draw 20.7% · Away 16.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Middlesbrough v West Brom

championship · 11:30 UK

Finished 3–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	11	2
Position last season	5	19
Points this season	3	6
Goal difference this season	+0	+3
Elo rating going in	1,551	1,512
Matches on record, all seasons	694	670
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	10
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	0.6
Clean sheets, last 10	2	6
Failed to score, last 10	3	3
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	0	2
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	19.4	11.6
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	5.6
Shots per possession	0.306	0.224
On-target shots per possession	0.092	0.088
Inside-box shots per possession	0.194	0.156
Share of shots from inside the box	63.9%	69.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.43	1.55
Possession, last 5	64.0%	52.6%
Corners, last 5	6.8	2.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.274	0.234
On-target allowed per possession	0.083	0.062
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.171	0.165
Opponents' inside-box share	63.3%	69.0%
Save rate	60.5%	81.0%
Saves, last 5	1.4	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.97	1.37
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	86.0%	82.4%
Passes, last 5	571	472
Fouls, last 5	10.0	9.2
Cards, last 5	1.0	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	16
Home side won	9
Drawn	4
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	22
Goals, away side	16

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 54.5% · Draw 24.9% · Away 20.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Milton Keynes Dons v Leicester

league-one · 11:30 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	14	17
Position last season	—	21
Points this season	2	1
Goal difference this season	+0	-1
Elo rating going in	1,385	1,465
Matches on record, all seasons	501	614
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	6
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	0.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	4	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.6	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.8	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	20.0	16.2
Shots on target, last 5	5.0	4.8
Shots per possession	0.278	0.323
On-target shots per possession	0.078	0.106
Inside-box shots per possession	0.195	0.180
Share of shots from inside the box	69.1%	54.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.33	1.90
Possession, last 5	52.5%	55.8%
Corners, last 5	7.0	6.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.284	0.263
On-target allowed per possession	0.100	0.074
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.185	0.163
Opponents' inside-box share	65.6%	63.2%
Save rate	68.2%	64.5%
Saves, last 5	4.2	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.57	1.38
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	78.0%	80.5%
Passes, last 5	401	450
Fouls, last 5	9.0	10.5
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 36.4% · Draw 26.2% · Away 37.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Wolves v Stoke City

championship · 11:30 UK

Finished 4–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	21
Position last season	20	17
Points this season	4	0
Goal difference this season	+2	-3
Elo rating going in	1,586	1,428
Matches on record, all seasons	658	674
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	0
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	2.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	0.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.9	2.1
Clean sheets, last 10	0	1
Failed to score, last 10	4	3
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	4	0
Losses in a row	0	6
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	0.4
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.4	2.4
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.2	12.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.2	2.6
Shots per possession	0.297	0.224
On-target shots per possession	0.076	0.049
Inside-box shots per possession	0.199	0.156
Share of shots from inside the box	69.7%	72.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.51	0.96
Possession, last 5	39.8%	46.4%
Corners, last 5	4.0	8.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.246	0.253
On-target allowed per possession	0.083	0.075
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.170	0.174
Opponents' inside-box share	68.1%	67.3%
Save rate	60.1%	51.2%
Saves, last 5	3.4	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.13	1.60
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	75.8%	76.2%
Passes, last 5	338	339
Fouls, last 5	12.4	13.0
Cards, last 5	1.4	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	1
Drawn	0
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	4
Goals, away side	8

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 62.6% · Draw 21.8% · Away 15.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

1. FC Köln v 1899 Hoffenheim

bundesliga · 13:30 UK

Finished 3–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	14	5
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,478	1,605
Matches on record, all seasons	410	544
Recent form
Points, last 5	2	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	2.6	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	2.2	2.1
Clean sheets, last 10	0	1
Failed to score, last 10	0	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	2	1
Days since last match	105	105
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	1.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	2.8
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.0	15.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	5.2
Shots per possession	0.314	0.264
On-target shots per possession	0.116	0.089
Inside-box shots per possession	0.237	0.166
Share of shots from inside the box	74.3%	63.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.65	1.86
Possession, last 5	47.0%	55.8%
Corners, last 5	4.6	6.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.221	0.261
On-target allowed per possession	0.080	0.110
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.159	0.184
Opponents' inside-box share	71.5%	72.3%
Save rate	54.3%	57.1%
Saves, last 5	2.0	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.78	1.18
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.8%	82.2%
Passes, last 5	429	468
Fouls, last 5	7.2	13.8
Cards, last 5	1.6	3.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	24
Home side won	5
Drawn	9
Away side won	10
Goals, home side	27
Goals, away side	48

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 31.2% · Draw 25.6% · Away 43.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

FSV Mainz 05 v SC Paderborn 07

bundesliga · 13:30 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	10	—
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,577	1,407
Matches on record, all seasons	544	70
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	0.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	2.1
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	3
Wins in a row	1	1
Unbeaten run	1	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	105	96
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	3.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.8	16.2
Shots on target, last 5	6.6	3.8
Shots per possession	0.340	0.312
On-target shots per possession	0.132	0.073
Inside-box shots per possession	0.258	0.175
Share of shots from inside the box	76.4%	58.3%
Expected goals, last 5	2.57	—
Possession, last 5	48.0%	50.2%
Corners, last 5	5.4	6.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.223	0.270
On-target allowed per possession	0.085	0.116
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.169	0.188
Opponents' inside-box share	76.0%	70.8%
Save rate	67.7%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	3.4	4.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.78	—
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.4%	79.8%
Passes, last 5	431	458
Fouls, last 5	10.6	11.6
Cards, last 5	1.4	3.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	3
Drawn	1
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	11
Goals, away side	3

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 57.8% · Draw 23.0% · Away 19.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

RB Leipzig v Borussia Mönchengladbach

bundesliga · 13:30 UK

Finished 3–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	3	12
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,676	1,537
Matches on record, all seasons	340	544
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	8
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	2.0	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	2	4
Failed to score, last 10	1	2
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	105	105
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.0	11.2
Shots on target, last 5	6.8	4.0
Shots per possession	0.281	0.248
On-target shots per possession	0.126	0.094
Inside-box shots per possession	0.199	0.167
Share of shots from inside the box	69.7%	67.7%
Expected goals, last 5	2.07	1.13
Possession, last 5	58.0%	50.4%
Corners, last 5	4.8	2.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.277	0.267
On-target allowed per possession	0.089	0.115
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.205	0.182
Opponents' inside-box share	72.0%	67.4%
Save rate	63.4%	73.9%
Saves, last 5	2.0	4.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.65	1.70
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	86.4%	83.0%
Passes, last 5	518	466
Fouls, last 5	7.4	10.2
Cards, last 5	1.6	3.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	20
Home side won	11
Drawn	5
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	30
Goals, away side	19

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 60.2% · Draw 21.2% · Away 18.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Union Berlin v Eintracht Frankfurt

bundesliga · 13:30 UK

Finished 3–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	11	8
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,526	1,587
Matches on record, all seasons	240	510
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	2
Goals scored, last 5	2.2	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	2.0	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	1
Wins in a row	2	0
Unbeaten run	3	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	105	105
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.8	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.8	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.2	13.6
Shots on target, last 5	5.8	5.6
Shots per possession	0.287	0.221
On-target shots per possession	0.105	0.084
Inside-box shots per possession	0.189	0.136
Share of shots from inside the box	65.5%	62.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.90	1.38
Possession, last 5	48.4%	55.2%
Corners, last 5	5.8	5.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.232	0.318
On-target allowed per possession	0.079	0.133
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.154	0.226
Opponents' inside-box share	64.9%	70.5%
Save rate	59.2%	69.8%
Saves, last 5	2.6	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.72	1.59
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	78.0%	84.2%
Passes, last 5	411	453
Fouls, last 5	9.2	11.0
Cards, last 5	1.6	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	14
Home side won	5
Drawn	4
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	21
Goals, away side	24

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 36.4% · Draw 26.7% · Away 36.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Blackburn v QPR

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	5	3
Position last season	22	15
Points this season	4	4
Goal difference this season	+1	+2
Elo rating going in	1,495	1,481
Matches on record, all seasons	722	671
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	4	4
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	2	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	0.6	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.6	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	8.6	15.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	7.2
Shots per possession	0.249	0.277
On-target shots per possession	0.086	0.124
Inside-box shots per possession	0.173	0.177
Share of shots from inside the box	69.0%	62.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.16	1.77
Possession, last 5	37.4%	50.6%
Corners, last 5	4.6	5.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.234	0.232
On-target allowed per possession	0.071	0.094
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.166	0.130
Opponents' inside-box share	71.6%	57.7%
Save rate	72.1%	69.1%
Saves, last 5	3.0	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.78	1.68
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	76.4%	80.4%
Passes, last 5	348	427
Fouls, last 5	10.6	11.4
Cards, last 5	3.2	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	24
Home side won	13
Drawn	5
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	37
Goals, away side	23

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 37.9% · Draw 28.0% · Away 34.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Bolton v Lincoln

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	5	23
Position last season	5	1
Points this season	4	0
Goal difference this season	+1	-3
Elo rating going in	1,496	1,554
Matches on record, all seasons	672	316
Recent form
Points, last 5	13	9
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	0.4	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.9	2.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	3	4
Failed to score, last 10	2	0
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	5	0
Losses in a row	0	2
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.4	14.0
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	4.4
Shots per possession	0.271	0.322
On-target shots per possession	0.086	0.110
Inside-box shots per possession	0.153	0.225
Share of shots from inside the box	61.0%	67.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.08	1.84
Possession, last 5	53.2%	36.2%
Corners, last 5	4.0	5.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.231	0.197
On-target allowed per possession	0.077	0.057
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.168	0.111
Opponents' inside-box share	71.1%	55.4%
Save rate	67.3%	63.1%
Saves, last 5	4.0	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.82	2.00
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	74.0%	64.0%
Passes, last 5	407	252
Fouls, last 5	10.4	13.0
Cards, last 5	1.0	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	11
Home side won	6
Drawn	3
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	19
Goals, away side	13

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 38.7% · Draw 28.5% · Away 32.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Bournemouth v Everton

premier-league · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	9	2
Position last season	6	13
Points this season	0	3
Goal difference this season	-1	+2
Elo rating going in	1,771	1,711
Matches on record, all seasons	621	609
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	2
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	6	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.6	12.6
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	4.4
Shots per possession	0.260	0.294
On-target shots per possession	0.084	0.124
Inside-box shots per possession	0.147	0.209
Share of shots from inside the box	58.0%	71.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.35	1.38
Possession, last 5	45.0%	41.2%
Corners, last 5	4.4	5.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.263	0.272
On-target allowed per possession	0.070	0.077
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.202	0.183
Opponents' inside-box share	78.2%	68.6%
Save rate	70.3%	61.0%
Saves, last 5	2.6	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.56	1.61
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	82.4%	78.4%
Passes, last 5	403	344
Fouls, last 5	13.0	13.0
Cards, last 5	2.0	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	18
Home side won	9
Drawn	2
Away side won	7
Goals, home side	30
Goals, away side	29

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 46.7% · Draw 27.1% · Away 26.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Bristol City v Portsmouth

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	18	9
Position last season	12	18
Points this season	1	3
Goal difference this season	-2	+0
Elo rating going in	1,500	1,498
Matches on record, all seasons	694	501
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	3	3
Failed to score, last 10	3	0
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	1	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	1.8
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	1.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.4	11.0
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	4.2
Shots per possession	0.219	0.201
On-target shots per possession	0.086	0.068
Inside-box shots per possession	0.126	0.123
Share of shots from inside the box	54.7%	60.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.16	1.12
Possession, last 5	43.4%	49.6%
Corners, last 5	3.8	3.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.287	0.243
On-target allowed per possession	0.088	0.080
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.194	0.172
Opponents' inside-box share	68.3%	68.8%
Save rate	73.4%	69.3%
Saves, last 5	2.2	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.95	2.15
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	73.0%	74.0%
Passes, last 5	372	332
Fouls, last 5	9.0	13.2
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	3
Drawn	2
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	9
Goals, away side	3

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 43.4% · Draw 27.6% · Away 29.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Cambridge United v Huddersfield

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	2
Position last season	—	9
Points this season	4	4
Goal difference this season	+1	+3
Elo rating going in	1,311	1,416
Matches on record, all seasons	186	684
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	8
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	2.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	2.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	0
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	2	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	2.2
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	1.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.8	15.8
Shots on target, last 5	5.2	5.2
Shots per possession	0.237	0.337
On-target shots per possession	0.086	0.118
Inside-box shots per possession	0.162	0.238
Share of shots from inside the box	63.6%	68.7%
Expected goals, last 5	0.76	2.12
Possession, last 5	44.2%	52.5%
Corners, last 5	3.2	4.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.195	0.220
On-target allowed per possession	0.075	0.073
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.118	0.144
Opponents' inside-box share	62.1%	63.6%
Save rate	65.5%	57.9%
Saves, last 5	3.0	1.5
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.61	1.07
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	64.8%	79.0%
Passes, last 5	328	423
Fouls, last 5	8.0	12.5
Cards, last 5	2.2	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	1
Drawn	0
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	2
Goals, away side	5

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 32.7% · Draw 27.1% · Away 40.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Cardiff v Sheffield Utd

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	13	13
Position last season	2	13
Points this season	2	2
Goal difference this season	+0	+0
Elo rating going in	1,508	1,526
Matches on record, all seasons	680	679
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	5
Goals scored, last 5	2.6	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	2.0	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	3	3
Failed to score, last 10	1	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	2	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	2.2	1.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	0.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.4	12.0
Shots on target, last 5	6.4	3.6
Shots per possession	0.293	0.266
On-target shots per possession	0.095	0.090
Inside-box shots per possession	0.169	0.184
Share of shots from inside the box	57.9%	71.7%
Expected goals, last 5	2.31	1.70
Possession, last 5	68.0%	52.2%
Corners, last 5	6.6	4.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.356	0.259
On-target allowed per possession	0.158	0.093
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.244	0.174
Opponents' inside-box share	68.3%	69.0%
Save rate	70.0%	59.8%
Saves, last 5	4.2	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.54	1.59
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	87.8%	74.0%
Passes, last 5	569	427
Fouls, last 5	8.2	10.2
Cards, last 5	0.8	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	1
Drawn	1
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	6
Goals, away side	14

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 35.7% · Draw 26.6% · Away 37.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Celtic v Falkirk

scottish-prem · 14:00 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	9
Position last season	1	6
Points this season	6	1
Goal difference this season	+5	-2
Elo rating going in	1,799	1,520
Matches on record, all seasons	597	40
Recent form
Points, last 5	15	1
Goals scored, last 5	3.0	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	2.6
Goals scored, last 10	2.3	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	2.6
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	3
Wins in a row	9	0
Unbeaten run	9	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	20	20
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	2.4	1.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	1.8
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.8	8.0
Shots on target, last 5	6.4	1.4
Shots per possession	0.255	0.205
On-target shots per possession	0.097	0.054
Inside-box shots per possession	0.160	0.129
Share of shots from inside the box	60.5%	63.1%
Expected goals, last 5	2.69	0.84
Possession, last 5	59.8%	51.4%
Corners, last 5	5.8	5.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.294	0.279
On-target allowed per possession	0.100	0.105
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.196	0.178
Opponents' inside-box share	71.0%	62.2%
Save rate	68.5%	57.3%
Saves, last 5	2.6	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.88	1.37
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	85.0%	76.6%
Passes, last 5	550	395
Fouls, last 5	13.8	14.4
Cards, last 5	3.2	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	4
Drawn	0
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	10
Goals, away side	1

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 78.7% · Draw 13.4% · Away 7.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Charlton v Preston

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	21
Position last season	20	14
Points this season	6	0
Goal difference this season	+2	-3
Elo rating going in	1,497	1,462
Matches on record, all seasons	700	697
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	3
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	2.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.9
Clean sheets, last 10	0	0
Failed to score, last 10	1	1
Wins in a row	2	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	3
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.0	13.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	4.4
Shots per possession	0.323	0.261
On-target shots per possession	0.115	0.082
Inside-box shots per possession	0.238	0.194
Share of shots from inside the box	73.5%	73.3%
Expected goals, last 5	0.81	1.75
Possession, last 5	34.0%	43.4%
Corners, last 5	3.8	5.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.279	0.313
On-target allowed per possession	0.096	0.094
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.188	0.186
Opponents' inside-box share	68.8%	61.0%
Save rate	73.3%	65.3%
Saves, last 5	4.4	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.59	2.01
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	68.8%	68.4%
Passes, last 5	272	325
Fouls, last 5	13.0	10.6
Cards, last 5	1.4	3.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	1
Drawn	1
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	10
Goals, away side	16

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 45.0% · Draw 28.4% · Away 26.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Coventry v Hull City

premier-league · 14:00 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	2
Position last season	1	6
Points this season	0	3
Goal difference this season	-3	+2
Elo rating going in	1,638	1,568
Matches on record, all seasons	638	673
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	13
Goals scored, last 5	2.6	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	0.2
Goals scored, last 10	2.0	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	0.8
Clean sheets, last 10	4	5
Failed to score, last 10	3	2
Wins in a row	0	3
Unbeaten run	0	5
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.8	9.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	4.0
Shots per possession	0.237	0.303
On-target shots per possession	0.082	0.106
Inside-box shots per possession	0.176	0.194
Share of shots from inside the box	71.3%	65.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.60	1.27
Possession, last 5	58.8%	33.4%
Corners, last 5	3.6	2.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.241	0.228
On-target allowed per possession	0.065	0.068
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.170	0.130
Opponents' inside-box share	68.6%	58.9%
Save rate	60.6%	71.9%
Saves, last 5	1.6	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.18	1.01
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.2%	64.6%
Passes, last 5	507	258
Fouls, last 5	8.4	8.2
Cards, last 5	1.0	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	12
Home side won	3
Drawn	5
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	12
Goals, away side	13

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 53.3% · Draw 26.9% · Away 19.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Heart Of Midlothian v ST Johnstone

scottish-prem · 14:00 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	5
Position last season	2	—
Points this season	3	3
Goal difference this season	+3	+0
Elo rating going in	1,667	1,405
Matches on record, all seasons	522	563
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	6
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	2.0	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	3	1
Failed to score, last 10	0	5
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	20	21
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.6	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.4	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	0.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	2.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.2	13.4
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	3.4
Shots per possession	0.280	0.249
On-target shots per possession	0.096	0.066
Inside-box shots per possession	0.186	0.152
Share of shots from inside the box	67.0%	55.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.22	1.52
Possession, last 5	48.8%	55.0%
Corners, last 5	6.0	4.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.212	0.286
On-target allowed per possession	0.044	0.099
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.128	0.166
Opponents' inside-box share	60.1%	60.0%
Save rate	60.2%	67.7%
Saves, last 5	1.0	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.35	1.07
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	71.2%	81.8%
Passes, last 5	367	434
Fouls, last 5	11.4	9.0
Cards, last 5	2.2	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	43
Home side won	21
Drawn	10
Away side won	12
Goals, home side	61
Goals, away side	47

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 55.3% · Draw 23.6% · Away 21.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Kilmarnock v Dundee Utd

scottish-prem · 14:00 UK

Finished 0–4. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	12	11
Position last season	10	7
Points this season	0	1
Goal difference this season	-5	-6
Elo rating going in	1,480	1,491
Matches on record, all seasons	563	419
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	3
Goals scored, last 5	2.8	0.4
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	2.1	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	1.9
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	5
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	2	2
Days since last match	20	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.2	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.6	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.0	13.0
Shots on target, last 5	5.4	3.2
Shots per possession	0.268	0.275
On-target shots per possession	0.105	0.073
Inside-box shots per possession	0.182	0.188
Share of shots from inside the box	68.3%	67.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.65	1.03
Possession, last 5	44.2%	54.0%
Corners, last 5	3.8	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.231	0.307
On-target allowed per possession	0.087	0.128
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.163	0.208
Opponents' inside-box share	70.0%	67.9%
Save rate	68.6%	65.5%
Saves, last 5	4.0	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.86	1.41
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	82.6%	78.4%
Passes, last 5	434	429
Fouls, last 5	11.8	12.4
Cards, last 5	2.0	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	35
Home side won	11
Drawn	12
Away side won	12
Goals, home side	55
Goals, away side	59

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 38.5% · Draw 26.5% · Away 35.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Leyton Orient v Barnsley

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	9	17
Position last season	20	15
Points this season	3	1
Goal difference this season	+1	-1
Elo rating going in	1,366	1,361
Matches on record, all seasons	330	702
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	0.7	0.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	4	3
Failed to score, last 10	5	5
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	0.4
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.6	0.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.8	11.2
Shots on target, last 5	2.2	2.8
Shots per possession	0.191	0.226
On-target shots per possession	0.057	0.078
Inside-box shots per possession	0.125	0.145
Share of shots from inside the box	64.6%	64.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.12	1.42
Possession, last 5	52.0%	55.0%
Corners, last 5	4.5	4.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.306	0.276
On-target allowed per possession	0.092	0.096
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.217	0.211
Opponents' inside-box share	71.3%	77.4%
Save rate	76.6%	70.6%
Saves, last 5	4.8	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.01	2.36
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	69.5%	73.2%
Passes, last 5	336	388
Fouls, last 5	13.5	11.5
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	2
Drawn	2
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	13
Goals, away side	14

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 42.7% · Draw 25.4% · Away 31.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Norwich v Burnley

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 4–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	24	19
Position last season	9	19
Points this season	0	1
Goal difference this season	-4	-2
Elo rating going in	1,520	1,580
Matches on record, all seasons	649	620
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	3
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	0.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	2.2
Clean sheets, last 10	1	0
Failed to score, last 10	2	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	3	1
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	0.8
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	2.8
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.0	13.0
Shots on target, last 5	5.0	4.4
Shots per possession	0.247	0.233
On-target shots per possession	0.089	0.082
Inside-box shots per possession	0.159	0.130
Share of shots from inside the box	62.7%	57.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.61	1.24
Possession, last 5	54.6%	47.8%
Corners, last 5	5.2	4.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.231	0.310
On-target allowed per possession	0.101	0.107
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.182	0.216
Opponents' inside-box share	77.8%	71.5%
Save rate	64.6%	64.1%
Saves, last 5	3.4	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.66	1.53
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	78.0%	81.8%
Passes, last 5	431	405
Fouls, last 5	11.4	13.8
Cards, last 5	2.2	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	1
Drawn	1
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	4
Goals, away side	12

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 42.9% · Draw 26.9% · Away 30.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Notts County v Burton Albion

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	9	3
Position last season	—	17
Points this season	2	4
Goal difference this season	+0	+1
Elo rating going in	1,398	1,376
Matches on record, all seasons	186	497
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	0.9
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	2
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	2	8
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	1.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	1.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	6.0	14.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	5.8
Shots per possession	—	0.270
On-target shots per possession	—	0.103
Inside-box shots per possession	—	0.180
Share of shots from inside the box	—	61.4%
Expected goals, last 5	0.79	1.97
Possession, last 5	42.0%	40.2%
Corners, last 5	3.0	2.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	—	0.187
On-target allowed per possession	—	0.054
Inside-box allowed per possession	—	0.117
Opponents' inside-box share	—	63.1%
Save rate	—	71.7%
Saves, last 5	2.0	1.5
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.93	1.18
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	71.0%	64.5%
Passes, last 5	311	267
Fouls, last 5	18.0	13.0
Cards, last 5	0.6	1.2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 41.2% · Draw 28.2% · Away 30.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Plymouth v Bradford

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	22	1
Position last season	8	4
Points this season	1	6
Goal difference this season	-2	+3
Elo rating going in	1,461	1,418
Matches on record, all seasons	370	331
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	9
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	0.6
Goals scored, last 10	2.0	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	0.9
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	0	3
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	1	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	9
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	2.2	1.4
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	1.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.2	8.2
Shots on target, last 5	5.0	2.2
Shots per possession	0.405	0.204
On-target shots per possession	0.155	0.060
Inside-box shots per possession	0.288	0.139
Share of shots from inside the box	70.6%	67.2%
Expected goals, last 5	2.54	0.70
Possession, last 5	37.8%	44.8%
Corners, last 5	5.8	7.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.195	0.210
On-target allowed per possession	0.060	0.054
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.115	0.142
Opponents' inside-box share	61.2%	70.5%
Save rate	66.0%	64.4%
Saves, last 5	2.5	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.14	0.92
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	56.8%	60.8%
Passes, last 5	220	304
Fouls, last 5	13.8	11.0
Cards, last 5	3.0	0.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	2
Drawn	3
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	6
Goals, away side	5

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 43.5% · Draw 26.7% · Away 29.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Southampton v Millwall

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 5–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	9	1
Position last season	4	3
Points this season	3	6
Goal difference this season	+1	+5
Elo rating going in	1,607	1,608
Matches on record, all seasons	601	700
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	0.4
Goals scored, last 10	2.0	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	0.6
Clean sheets, last 10	2	6
Failed to score, last 10	1	3
Wins in a row	1	2
Unbeaten run	1	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.4	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.2	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.6	17.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	5.0
Shots per possession	0.272	0.286
On-target shots per possession	0.080	0.081
Inside-box shots per possession	0.186	0.199
Share of shots from inside the box	69.0%	70.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.79	1.85
Possession, last 5	54.8%	62.6%
Corners, last 5	5.8	7.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.318	0.218
On-target allowed per possession	0.097	0.059
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.202	0.129
Opponents' inside-box share	61.8%	56.2%
Save rate	72.5%	72.6%
Saves, last 5	2.6	1.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.24	1.06
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.2%	80.6%
Passes, last 5	477	459
Fouls, last 5	10.4	11.0
Cards, last 5	2.6	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	3
Drawn	1
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	8
Goals, away side	7

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 48.3% · Draw 26.2% · Away 25.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Stevenage v Doncaster

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	17	17
Position last season	6	14
Points this season	1	1
Goal difference this season	-1	-1
Elo rating going in	1,413	1,360
Matches on record, all seasons	282	498
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	5
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	3	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.0	0.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.0	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.5	12.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.5	4.8
Shots per possession	0.225	0.260
On-target shots per possession	0.079	0.098
Inside-box shots per possession	0.164	0.178
Share of shots from inside the box	74.1%	65.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.06	2.76
Possession, last 5	46.8%	51.5%
Corners, last 5	4.5	3.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.204	0.234
On-target allowed per possession	0.075	0.077
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.123	0.160
Opponents' inside-box share	62.1%	65.8%
Save rate	65.6%	70.0%
Saves, last 5	2.5	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.08	1.18
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	65.8%	69.2%
Passes, last 5	321	340
Fouls, last 5	14.5	12.0
Cards, last 5	1.2	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	0
Drawn	3
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	3
Goals, away side	4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 40.9% · Draw 28.9% · Away 30.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Stockport County v Wycombe

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 5–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	9	14
Position last season	3	11
Points this season	3	2
Goal difference this season	+1	+0
Elo rating going in	1,482	1,421
Matches on record, all seasons	99	412
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.8	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.9
Clean sheets, last 10	2	1
Failed to score, last 10	1	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	3
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.4	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.2	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.0	19.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.5	7.0
Shots per possession	0.263	0.251
On-target shots per possession	0.104	0.094
Inside-box shots per possession	0.205	0.178
Share of shots from inside the box	76.6%	73.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.37	2.63
Possession, last 5	57.5%	64.2%
Corners, last 5	8.2	9.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.289	0.281
On-target allowed per possession	0.129	0.103
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.203	0.165
Opponents' inside-box share	69.3%	58.3%
Save rate	69.2%	59.8%
Saves, last 5	3.2	1.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.43	1.06
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	76.5%	79.2%
Passes, last 5	445	454
Fouls, last 5	12.0	10.5
Cards, last 5	1.4	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	3
Drawn	0
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	8
Goals, away side	7

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 50.0% · Draw 26.5% · Away 23.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Watford v West Ham

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	5	18
Position last season	16	18
Points this season	4	1
Goal difference this season	+1	-1
Elo rating going in	1,476	1,648
Matches on record, all seasons	647	621
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	4
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	2.8	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	0.6	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	2.1	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	1	3
Failed to score, last 10	5	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.8	15.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	6.2
Shots per possession	0.267	0.279
On-target shots per possession	0.086	0.104
Inside-box shots per possession	0.157	0.214
Share of shots from inside the box	54.7%	77.3%
Expected goals, last 5	0.90	1.78
Possession, last 5	41.0%	51.0%
Corners, last 5	2.6	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.305	0.274
On-target allowed per possession	0.113	0.095
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.190	0.163
Opponents' inside-box share	63.9%	60.5%
Save rate	63.6%	63.6%
Saves, last 5	2.6	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.68	1.43
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	79.0%	80.8%
Passes, last 5	357	426
Fouls, last 5	12.8	10.8
Cards, last 5	2.6	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	14
Home side won	4
Drawn	2
Away side won	8
Goals, home side	17
Goals, away side	28

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 23.7% · Draw 25.2% · Away 51.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Alverca v Santa Clara

primeira-liga · 14:30 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	14	2
Position last season	11	12
Points this season	1	7
Goal difference this season	-4	+2
Elo rating going in	1,570	1,583
Matches on record, all seasons	37	241
Recent form
Points, last 5	2	10
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	0.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	0	4
Failed to score, last 10	4	3
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	0	3
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	0.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.4	12.4
Shots on target, last 5	2.4	2.4
Shots per possession	0.211	0.265
On-target shots per possession	0.076	0.068
Inside-box shots per possession	0.124	0.160
Share of shots from inside the box	58.0%	60.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.04	1.18
Possession, last 5	43.0%	42.4%
Corners, last 5	4.0	3.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.221	0.190
On-target allowed per possession	0.077	0.067
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.124	0.118
Opponents' inside-box share	55.2%	60.2%
Save rate	67.8%	70.9%
Saves, last 5	2.2	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.12	0.89
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.8%	77.0%
Passes, last 5	320	324
Fouls, last 5	11.4	13.0
Cards, last 5	2.8	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	0
Drawn	1
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	2
Goals, away side	3

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 34.6% · Draw 32.0% · Away 33.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Arouca v Maritimo

primeira-liga · 14:30 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	5	1
Position last season	9	—
Points this season	6	7
Goal difference this season	+3	+2
Elo rating going in	1,598	1,498
Matches on record, all seasons	307	431
Recent form
Points, last 5	12	10
Goals scored, last 5	2.2	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.8	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	0
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	4
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	6	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.2	14.4
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	4.6
Shots per possession	0.211	0.314
On-target shots per possession	0.069	0.092
Inside-box shots per possession	0.122	0.203
Share of shots from inside the box	57.1%	68.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.23	1.38
Possession, last 5	49.6%	51.0%
Corners, last 5	3.2	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.258	0.246
On-target allowed per possession	0.073	0.084
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.168	0.158
Opponents' inside-box share	63.3%	62.3%
Save rate	67.3%	64.5%
Saves, last 5	3.4	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.42	1.01
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	83.2%	79.6%
Passes, last 5	439	429
Fouls, last 5	10.8	16.2
Cards, last 5	2.6	3.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	12
Home side won	5
Drawn	3
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	15
Goals, away side	15

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 44.3% · Draw 28.7% · Away 27.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Excelsior v Sparta Rotterdam

eredivisie · 14:30 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	5
Position last season	13	10
Points this season	3	4
Goal difference this season	+3	+1
Elo rating going in	1,497	1,539
Matches on record, all seasons	352	307
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	4
Goals scored, last 5	2.4	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	2.4
Goals scored, last 10	2.1	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	2.0
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	2
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	14	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.6	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.4	2.2
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.0	13.4
Shots on target, last 5	5.2	4.0
Shots per possession	0.268	0.286
On-target shots per possession	0.100	0.089
Inside-box shots per possession	0.170	0.196
Share of shots from inside the box	62.9%	68.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.48	1.50
Possession, last 5	50.6%	46.4%
Corners, last 5	4.8	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.271	0.285
On-target allowed per possession	0.095	0.092
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.180	0.183
Opponents' inside-box share	65.3%	61.8%
Save rate	68.6%	63.3%
Saves, last 5	2.8	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.20	2.34
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	79.4%	80.6%
Passes, last 5	427	390
Fouls, last 5	11.0	11.4
Cards, last 5	0.4	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	5
Drawn	1
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	18
Goals, away side	20

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 40.3% · Draw 25.4% · Away 34.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Levante v Real Betis

la-liga · 15:00 UK

Finished 5–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	16	2
Position last season	18	5
Points this season	1	6
Goal difference this season	-3	+2
Elo rating going in	1,577	1,708
Matches on record, all seasons	630	534
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	12
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	5	3
Failed to score, last 10	3	0
Wins in a row	0	3
Unbeaten run	1	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	5	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	1.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.4	1.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.8	14.8
Shots on target, last 5	3.4	5.4
Shots per possession	0.302	0.273
On-target shots per possession	0.091	0.100
Inside-box shots per possession	0.183	0.137
Share of shots from inside the box	57.5%	47.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.57	1.21
Possession, last 5	41.6%	50.4%
Corners, last 5	4.2	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.211	0.259
On-target allowed per possession	0.086	0.099
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.126	0.171
Opponents' inside-box share	58.8%	65.6%
Save rate	70.3%	74.9%
Saves, last 5	4.6	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.25	1.27
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.6%	86.8%
Passes, last 5	354	498
Fouls, last 5	9.4	11.0
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	20
Home side won	6
Drawn	3
Away side won	11
Goals, home side	28
Goals, away side	36

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 28.2% · Draw 28.2% · Away 43.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Sabadell v Almeria

laliga-2 · 15:00 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	13	7
Position last season	—	3
Points this season	2	3
Goal difference this season	+0	+2
Elo rating going in	1,432	1,515
Matches on record, all seasons	44	538
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	7
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	0.4	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	0.8	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	6	4
Failed to score, last 10	4	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	4	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	6	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	0.4
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	1.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.4	11.8
Shots on target, last 5	3.4	3.6
Shots per possession	0.209	0.290
On-target shots per possession	0.064	0.090
Inside-box shots per possession	0.118	0.191
Share of shots from inside the box	52.5%	66.0%
Expected goals, last 5	—	1.63
Possession, last 5	42.4%	51.0%
Corners, last 5	4.6	5.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.218	0.268
On-target allowed per possession	0.070	0.094
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.105	0.184
Opponents' inside-box share	49.3%	69.3%
Save rate	75.8%	74.5%
Saves, last 5	2.4	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	—	1.15
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	72.2%	82.6%
Passes, last 5	354	434
Fouls, last 5	13.6	11.2
Cards, last 5	2.6	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	0
Drawn	1
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	3
Goals, away side	4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 35.7% · Draw 30.3% · Away 34.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Strasbourg v Lens

ligue-1 · 15:15 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	2
Position last season	8	2
Points this season	0	3
Goal difference this season	-4	+3
Elo rating going in	1,622	1,694
Matches on record, all seasons	320	293
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	2.2
Goals conceded, last 5	2.4	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.8	2.3
Goals conceded, last 10	2.0	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	2
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	0	2
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.8	16.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	6.4
Shots per possession	0.212	0.350
On-target shots per possession	0.089	0.122
Inside-box shots per possession	0.137	0.237
Share of shots from inside the box	63.3%	68.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.23	2.24
Possession, last 5	49.4%	50.8%
Corners, last 5	4.4	6.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.345	0.245
On-target allowed per possession	0.135	0.084
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.225	0.170
Opponents' inside-box share	63.5%	69.7%
Save rate	68.7%	60.1%
Saves, last 5	4.4	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.61	1.45
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	86.0%	83.2%
Passes, last 5	466	442
Fouls, last 5	10.0	10.2
Cards, last 5	1.6	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	12
Home side won	4
Drawn	3
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	13
Goals, away side	14

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 26.0% · Draw 27.4% · Away 46.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Konyaspor v Kocaelispor

super-lig · 16:00 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	17	11
Position last season	9	11
Points this season	0	3
Goal difference this season	-3	+0
Elo rating going in	1,574	1,579
Matches on record, all seasons	462	36
Recent form
Points, last 5	0	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	2.6	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	0.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	6
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	5	0
Days since last match	7	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.0	7.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	1.8
Shots per possession	0.253	0.186
On-target shots per possession	0.100	0.039
Inside-box shots per possession	0.172	0.126
Share of shots from inside the box	69.4%	66.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.00	0.62
Possession, last 5	46.4%	51.2%
Corners, last 5	3.0	3.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.272	0.242
On-target allowed per possession	0.110	0.076
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.168	0.123
Opponents' inside-box share	58.8%	50.5%
Save rate	69.6%	64.9%
Saves, last 5	5.4	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.96	1.02
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	82.8%	81.6%
Passes, last 5	376	418
Fouls, last 5	13.2	14.8
Cards, last 5	2.4	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	1
Drawn	0
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	4
Goals, away side	4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 47.4% · Draw 28.3% · Away 24.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Borussia Dortmund v Hamburger SV

bundesliga · 16:30 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	2	13
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,732	1,499
Matches on record, all seasons	544	310
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	7
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.9	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	0.9	1.9
Clean sheets, last 10	4	0
Failed to score, last 10	2	1
Wins in a row	2	0
Unbeaten run	2	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	105	105
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	1.2
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	2.4
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.0	13.0
Shots on target, last 5	5.2	4.4
Shots per possession	0.235	0.261
On-target shots per possession	0.088	0.105
Inside-box shots per possession	0.185	0.164
Share of shots from inside the box	78.7%	65.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.85	1.27
Possession, last 5	53.8%	41.4%
Corners, last 5	4.0	3.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.217	0.276
On-target allowed per possession	0.085	0.103
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.141	0.189
Opponents' inside-box share	63.4%	65.1%
Save rate	74.9%	67.5%
Saves, last 5	2.8	4.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.36	1.50
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.6%	78.6%
Passes, last 5	500	356
Fouls, last 5	13.4	11.2
Cards, last 5	1.6	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	18
Home side won	10
Drawn	3
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	41
Goals, away side	24

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 72.9% · Draw 16.4% · Away 10.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Fiorentina v Frosinone

serie-a · 16:30 UK

Finished 0–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	20	8
Position last season	13	—
Points this season	0	0
Goal difference this season	-4	-1
Elo rating going in	1,631	1,460
Matches on record, all seasons	609	115
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	4
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	0.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	0.7	0.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	5	5
Failed to score, last 10	4	6
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	2
Days since last match	5	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.4	16.4
Shots on target, last 5	2.8	5.0
Shots per possession	0.237	0.346
On-target shots per possession	0.074	0.114
Inside-box shots per possession	0.132	0.193
Share of shots from inside the box	57.1%	54.8%
Expected goals, last 5	0.55	1.18
Possession, last 5	43.4%	43.6%
Corners, last 5	3.4	6.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.281	0.237
On-target allowed per possession	0.098	0.068
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.176	0.138
Opponents' inside-box share	64.3%	57.3%
Save rate	78.5%	70.6%
Saves, last 5	5.0	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.77	1.18
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	82.8%	75.2%
Passes, last 5	380	322
Fouls, last 5	11.4	9.8
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	2
Drawn	3
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	11
Goals, away side	5

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 58.4% · Draw 23.4% · Away 18.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Monza v Udinese

serie-a · 16:30 UK

Finished 2–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	2
Position last season	—	10
Points this season	0	1
Goal difference this season	-3	+0
Elo rating going in	1,442	1,589
Matches on record, all seasons	115	609
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	7
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	2.8	0.6
Goals scored, last 10	0.5	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	2.4	0.7
Clean sheets, last 10	0	5
Failed to score, last 10	6	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	3	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	8.8	12.8
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	4.4
Shots per possession	0.192	0.280
On-target shots per possession	0.064	0.104
Inside-box shots per possession	0.123	0.185
Share of shots from inside the box	64.3%	65.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.00	1.43
Possession, last 5	46.8%	45.4%
Corners, last 5	2.8	3.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.281	0.263
On-target allowed per possession	0.103	0.069
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.179	0.159
Opponents' inside-box share	63.6%	58.2%
Save rate	58.1%	73.1%
Saves, last 5	2.4	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.61	1.20
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	85.0%	81.4%
Passes, last 5	444	408
Fouls, last 5	9.6	12.0
Cards, last 5	1.4	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	1
Drawn	3
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	7
Goals, away side	8

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 30.5% · Draw 30.4% · Away 39.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Sassuolo v Torino

serie-a · 16:30 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	10	10
Position last season	11	13
Points this season	0	0
Goal difference this season	-1	-1
Elo rating going in	1,558	1,576
Matches on record, all seasons	457	533
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	4	1
Days since last match	6	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.8	11.4
Shots on target, last 5	5.2	2.8
Shots per possession	0.258	0.273
On-target shots per possession	0.083	0.066
Inside-box shots per possession	0.163	0.173
Share of shots from inside the box	64.1%	60.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.90	1.39
Possession, last 5	55.2%	46.8%
Corners, last 5	2.8	3.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.290	0.267
On-target allowed per possession	0.098	0.084
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.181	0.186
Opponents' inside-box share	59.7%	69.3%
Save rate	71.2%	65.2%
Saves, last 5	2.6	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.24	1.82
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	88.0%	83.2%
Passes, last 5	502	409
Fouls, last 5	11.2	12.8
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	24
Home side won	4
Drawn	9
Away side won	11
Goals, home side	27
Goals, away side	38

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 41.5% · Draw 29.1% · Away 29.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Tottenham v Newcastle

premier-league · 16:30 UK

Finished 0–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	11	9
Position last season	17	12
Points this season	0	1
Goal difference this season	-3	+0
Elo rating going in	1,643	1,727
Matches on record, all seasons	609	617
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	8
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	2	1
Failed to score, last 10	3	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.8	12.8
Shots on target, last 5	3.4	5.0
Shots per possession	0.249	0.249
On-target shots per possession	0.087	0.094
Inside-box shots per possession	0.170	0.152
Share of shots from inside the box	67.6%	60.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.12	1.62
Possession, last 5	55.4%	47.0%
Corners, last 5	6.6	4.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.256	0.333
On-target allowed per possession	0.079	0.111
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.167	0.202
Opponents' inside-box share	62.6%	62.0%
Save rate	63.7%	70.8%
Saves, last 5	2.2	4.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.33	1.52
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	85.2%	80.0%
Passes, last 5	468	407
Fouls, last 5	14.2	10.2
Cards, last 5	3.0	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	30
Home side won	13
Drawn	5
Away side won	12
Goals, home side	54
Goals, away side	47

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 42.1% · Draw 25.5% · Away 32.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

AZ Alkmaar v GO Ahead Eagles

eredivisie · 16:45 UK

Finished 5–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	2
Position last season	7	12
Points this season	9	7
Goal difference this season	+7	+5
Elo rating going in	1,661	1,562
Matches on record, all seasons	552	277
Recent form
Points, last 5	11	7
Goals scored, last 5	2.4	2.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.9	1.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	5	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	3
Wins in a row	3	1
Unbeaten run	9	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	18.2	11.8
Shots on target, last 5	7.4	5.2
Shots per possession	0.329	0.246
On-target shots per possession	0.119	0.105
Inside-box shots per possession	0.202	0.163
Share of shots from inside the box	63.0%	68.4%
Expected goals, last 5	2.60	1.30
Possession, last 5	58.6%	49.2%
Corners, last 5	8.6	5.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.235	0.458
On-target allowed per possession	0.085	0.107
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.142	0.293
Opponents' inside-box share	61.3%	63.1%
Save rate	71.4%	72.9%
Saves, last 5	3.0	4.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.08	2.44
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	86.0%	80.6%
Passes, last 5	505	409
Fouls, last 5	10.8	8.2
Cards, last 5	0.8	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	16
Home side won	11
Drawn	4
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	43
Goals, away side	12

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 68.4% · Draw 17.5% · Away 14.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Albacete v Oviedo

laliga-2 · 17:00 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	18	15
Position last season	11	20
Points this season	0	1
Goal difference this season	-2	-1
Elo rating going in	1,457	1,493
Matches on record, all seasons	342	426
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	1
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	0.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	0.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	1	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	7
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	3	1
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.0	0.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.6	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.4	11.4
Shots on target, last 5	5.0	1.8
Shots per possession	0.362	0.229
On-target shots per possession	0.134	0.062
Inside-box shots per possession	0.236	0.152
Share of shots from inside the box	63.4%	65.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.05	0.59
Possession, last 5	39.6%	55.6%
Corners, last 5	5.6	5.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.260	0.233
On-target allowed per possession	0.089	0.083
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.153	0.136
Opponents' inside-box share	57.5%	57.9%
Save rate	71.8%	68.8%
Saves, last 5	4.2	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.19	1.82
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	75.0%	83.0%
Passes, last 5	328	461
Fouls, last 5	10.8	13.6
Cards, last 5	1.2	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	14
Home side won	3
Drawn	5
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	11
Goals, away side	17

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 38.5% · Draw 30.6% · Away 30.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Leganes v Eldense

laliga-2 · 17:00 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	18
Position last season	16	—
Points this season	4	1
Goal difference this season	+1	-3
Elo rating going in	1,446	1,391
Matches on record, all seasons	404	86
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	3
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	2.4
Goals scored, last 10	0.7	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	2.1
Clean sheets, last 10	3	1
Failed to score, last 10	4	3
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	3	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	8.4	10.8
Shots on target, last 5	2.8	4.0
Shots per possession	0.242	0.263
On-target shots per possession	0.085	0.086
Inside-box shots per possession	0.145	0.169
Share of shots from inside the box	58.2%	62.3%
Expected goals, last 5	0.37	—
Possession, last 5	41.6%	42.4%
Corners, last 5	3.2	5.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.275	0.240
On-target allowed per possession	0.095	0.090
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.168	0.173
Opponents' inside-box share	61.2%	70.0%
Save rate	68.6%	63.3%
Saves, last 5	3.4	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.31	—
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	75.2%	76.4%
Passes, last 5	326	307
Fouls, last 5	13.6	10.6
Cards, last 5	2.6	2.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	1
Drawn	1
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	3
Goals, away side	2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 50.1% · Draw 26.8% · Away 23.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Real Sociedad v Espanyol

la-liga · 17:00 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	20	3
Position last season	10	11
Points this season	0	3
Goal difference this season	-4	+2
Elo rating going in	1,589	1,568
Matches on record, all seasons	610	622
Recent form
Points, last 5	2	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	2.1	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	0	3
Failed to score, last 10	3	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	2	1
Days since last match	3	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	8.4	11.4
Shots on target, last 5	3.0	4.8
Shots per possession	0.190	0.292
On-target shots per possession	0.072	0.097
Inside-box shots per possession	0.129	0.188
Share of shots from inside the box	66.5%	61.7%
Expected goals, last 5	0.97	1.20
Possession, last 5	49.2%	46.8%
Corners, last 5	4.6	3.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.356	0.230
On-target allowed per possession	0.121	0.087
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.203	0.159
Opponents' inside-box share	56.6%	68.7%
Save rate	68.8%	69.0%
Saves, last 5	5.2	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.08	0.90
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.4%	80.4%
Passes, last 5	473	347
Fouls, last 5	13.8	11.4
Cards, last 5	4.0	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	28
Home side won	14
Drawn	7
Away side won	7
Goals, home side	43
Goals, away side	35

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 50.6% · Draw 26.0% · Away 23.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Galatasaray v Göztepe

super-lig · 18:30 UK

Finished 3–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	13
Position last season	1	6
Points this season	4	1
Goal difference this season	+4	-1
Elo rating going in	1,885	1,624
Matches on record, all seasons	536	252
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	5
Goals scored, last 5	2.2	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	2.1	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	2
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	8	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	19.2	19.0
Shots on target, last 5	6.8	5.2
Shots per possession	0.266	0.439
On-target shots per possession	0.090	0.145
Inside-box shots per possession	0.179	0.332
Share of shots from inside the box	71.3%	75.1%
Expected goals, last 5	2.22	1.94
Possession, last 5	60.4%	40.2%
Corners, last 5	5.8	6.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.267	0.214
On-target allowed per possession	0.097	0.059
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.158	0.152
Opponents' inside-box share	59.6%	73.1%
Save rate	62.6%	63.7%
Saves, last 5	2.2	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.70	1.59
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	87.4%	70.2%
Passes, last 5	513	267
Fouls, last 5	10.6	17.8
Cards, last 5	1.4	3.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	14
Home side won	13
Drawn	0
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	31
Goals, away side	12

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 67.8% · Draw 19.3% · Away 12.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Gaziantep FK v Rizespor

super-lig · 18:30 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	8
Position last season	12	8
Points this season	4	3
Goal difference this season	+1	-1
Elo rating going in	1,555	1,597
Matches on record, all seasons	258	392
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	7
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	2	1
Failed to score, last 10	2	3
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	6	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.8	18.4
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	5.8
Shots per possession	0.274	0.288
On-target shots per possession	0.089	0.089
Inside-box shots per possession	0.164	0.169
Share of shots from inside the box	59.4%	60.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.04	1.62
Possession, last 5	51.0%	56.0%
Corners, last 5	4.6	6.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.287	0.275
On-target allowed per possession	0.095	0.112
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.176	0.172
Opponents' inside-box share	60.6%	63.1%
Save rate	67.2%	65.3%
Saves, last 5	2.4	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.50	1.14
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	82.2%	86.4%
Passes, last 5	413	471
Fouls, last 5	11.6	10.6
Cards, last 5	2.2	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	12
Home side won	6
Drawn	1
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	18
Goals, away side	18

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 37.9% · Draw 27.1% · Away 35.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Auxerre v Angers

ligue-1 · 18:45 UK

Finished 1–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	11
Position last season	15	13
Points this season	0	0
Goal difference this season	-3	-2
Elo rating going in	1,521	1,471
Matches on record, all seasons	185	363
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	2
Goals scored, last 5	2.2	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	0.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	2.0
Clean sheets, last 10	3	1
Failed to score, last 10	2	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	1
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.4	10.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	2.4
Shots per possession	0.242	0.250
On-target shots per possession	0.103	0.069
Inside-box shots per possession	0.168	0.167
Share of shots from inside the box	69.4%	66.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.14	1.23
Possession, last 5	45.4%	41.0%
Corners, last 5	5.2	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.215	0.275
On-target allowed per possession	0.083	0.128
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.147	0.174
Opponents' inside-box share	69.2%	62.2%
Save rate	64.1%	70.6%
Saves, last 5	2.8	5.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.36	1.93
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	79.6%	81.0%
Passes, last 5	396	366
Fouls, last 5	15.8	9.2
Cards, last 5	1.8	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	2
Drawn	2
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	7
Goals, away side	8

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 48.8% · Draw 27.4% · Away 23.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Juventus v Parma

serie-a · 18:45 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	6
Position last season	6	12
Points this season	3	0
Goal difference this season	+1	-1
Elo rating going in	1,752	1,550
Matches on record, all seasons	609	381
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	3
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	0.7
Goals conceded, last 10	0.6	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	6	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	4
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	6	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	21.4	8.4
Shots on target, last 5	6.2	2.0
Shots per possession	0.281	0.195
On-target shots per possession	0.090	0.057
Inside-box shots per possession	0.192	0.115
Share of shots from inside the box	69.0%	60.5%
Expected goals, last 5	2.16	0.66
Possession, last 5	63.8%	41.8%
Corners, last 5	9.0	2.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.257	0.213
On-target allowed per possession	0.066	0.070
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.149	0.147
Opponents' inside-box share	58.0%	68.3%
Save rate	74.8%	72.1%
Saves, last 5	2.4	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.59	1.83
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.6%	81.8%
Passes, last 5	510	334
Fouls, last 5	14.0	9.8
Cards, last 5	1.4	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	20
Home side won	12
Drawn	4
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	41
Goals, away side	19

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 77.1% · Draw 15.2% · Away 7.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Lorient v Estac Troyes

ligue-1 · 18:45 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	4
Position last season	10	—
Points this season	1	1
Goal difference this season	+0	+0
Elo rating going in	1,550	1,395
Matches on record, all seasons	449	191
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	3
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	0.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.9
Clean sheets, last 10	3	1
Failed to score, last 10	4	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	1	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.4	6.4
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	2.2
Shots per possession	0.223	0.179
On-target shots per possession	0.089	0.075
Inside-box shots per possession	0.140	0.112
Share of shots from inside the box	60.8%	65.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.48	0.44
Possession, last 5	42.6%	39.0%
Corners, last 5	4.4	3.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.224	0.333
On-target allowed per possession	0.074	0.114
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.150	0.211
Opponents' inside-box share	67.4%	61.7%
Save rate	72.8%	70.8%
Saves, last 5	2.6	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.32	1.84
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.6%	79.0%
Passes, last 5	372	327
Fouls, last 5	8.2	7.6
Cards, last 5	1.2	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	4
Drawn	3
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	15
Goals, away side	10

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 51.5% · Draw 26.9% · Away 21.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Lyon v Le Havre

ligue-1 · 18:45 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	12
Position last season	4	14
Points this season	3	0
Goal difference this season	+2	-1
Elo rating going in	1,669	1,506
Matches on record, all seasons	587	103
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	5
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	4	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	3
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.6	9.4
Shots on target, last 5	4.6	3.4
Shots per possession	0.233	0.237
On-target shots per possession	0.090	0.091
Inside-box shots per possession	0.160	0.163
Share of shots from inside the box	68.7%	70.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.78	1.02
Possession, last 5	54.8%	44.0%
Corners, last 5	9.0	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.300	0.261
On-target allowed per possession	0.094	0.090
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.210	0.178
Opponents' inside-box share	66.6%	66.1%
Save rate	70.9%	72.7%
Saves, last 5	2.0	4.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.33	1.41
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	85.2%	78.6%
Passes, last 5	426	344
Fouls, last 5	10.0	14.2
Cards, last 5	1.0	2.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	3
Drawn	2
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	10
Goals, away side	5

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 64.7% · Draw 21.0% · Away 14.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Stade Brestois 29 v Toulouse

ligue-1 · 18:45 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	10
Position last season	12	9
Points this season	1	0
Goal difference this season	+0	-2
Elo rating going in	1,560	1,559
Matches on record, all seasons	359	513
Recent form
Points, last 5	2	8
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	2.3	1.9
Clean sheets, last 10	0	2
Failed to score, last 10	4	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.0	13.4
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	4.0
Shots per possession	0.226	0.278
On-target shots per possession	0.067	0.082
Inside-box shots per possession	0.162	0.156
Share of shots from inside the box	69.7%	53.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.45	1.41
Possession, last 5	47.2%	45.2%
Corners, last 5	4.0	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.267	0.222
On-target allowed per possession	0.103	0.086
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.178	0.140
Opponents' inside-box share	67.4%	54.9%
Save rate	59.6%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	3.0	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.35	0.58
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	82.0%	83.0%
Passes, last 5	404	322
Fouls, last 5	9.6	13.4
Cards, last 5	0.6	2.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	16
Home side won	5
Drawn	5
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	21
Goals, away side	20

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 35.8% · Draw 28.2% · Away 36.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

PEC Zwolle v NEC Nijmegen

eredivisie · 19:00 UK

Finished 1–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	14	3
Position last season	15	3
Points this season	3	3
Goal difference this season	-2	+2
Elo rating going in	1,506	1,616
Matches on record, all seasons	441	383
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.8
Goals conceded, last 10	2.4	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	2	1
Failed to score, last 10	3	0
Wins in a row	1	1
Unbeaten run	1	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	14
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	2.2
Conceded away, last 5 there	3.4	1.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	7.8	23.6
Shots on target, last 5	2.2	7.2
Shots per possession	0.221	0.371
On-target shots per possession	0.069	0.123
Inside-box shots per possession	0.129	0.235
Share of shots from inside the box	57.7%	62.6%
Expected goals, last 5	0.73	2.50
Possession, last 5	40.8%	63.4%
Corners, last 5	2.6	8.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.316	0.237
On-target allowed per possession	0.116	0.105
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.193	0.175
Opponents' inside-box share	60.9%	75.3%
Save rate	65.1%	70.7%
Saves, last 5	4.6	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.90	1.20
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	76.8%	83.0%
Passes, last 5	324	488
Fouls, last 5	9.4	12.0
Cards, last 5	1.0	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	16
Home side won	4
Drawn	6
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	25
Goals, away side	26

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 22.1% · Draw 21.2% · Away 56.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Girona v Las Palmas

laliga-2 · 19:30 UK

Finished 5–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	16	1
Position last season	19	5
Points this season	1	6
Goal difference this season	-1	+3
Elo rating going in	1,558	1,541
Matches on record, all seasons	410	448
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	10
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	0	1
Failed to score, last 10	2	1
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	0	3
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	1.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	1.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	20.2	9.8
Shots on target, last 5	6.4	2.8
Shots per possession	0.269	0.210
On-target shots per possession	0.090	0.074
Inside-box shots per possession	0.162	0.115
Share of shots from inside the box	61.8%	55.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.62	—
Possession, last 5	58.6%	56.0%
Corners, last 5	5.6	3.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.235	0.265
On-target allowed per possession	0.082	0.088
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.162	0.190
Opponents' inside-box share	70.3%	73.3%
Save rate	61.5%	68.8%
Saves, last 5	1.4	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.83	—
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	88.4%	87.4%
Passes, last 5	513	540
Fouls, last 5	11.6	9.6
Cards, last 5	2.6	0.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	12
Home side won	8
Drawn	3
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	20
Goals, away side	6

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 54.6% · Draw 25.9% · Away 19.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Sevilla v Atletico Madrid

la-liga · 19:30 UK

Finished 1–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	3
Position last season	15	4
Points this season	6	4
Goal difference this season	+3	+2
Elo rating going in	1,584	1,731
Matches on record, all seasons	610	610
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	1	3
Failed to score, last 10	3	1
Wins in a row	2	0
Unbeaten run	2	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.2	13.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.2	4.4
Shots per possession	0.281	0.260
On-target shots per possession	0.085	0.084
Inside-box shots per possession	0.153	0.159
Share of shots from inside the box	53.8%	65.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.02	1.24
Possession, last 5	41.4%	49.0%
Corners, last 5	3.0	6.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.192	0.262
On-target allowed per possession	0.067	0.086
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.124	0.184
Opponents' inside-box share	63.9%	68.3%
Save rate	65.5%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	2.4	4.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.33	2.14
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	79.4%	85.6%
Passes, last 5	345	471
Fouls, last 5	16.2	12.0
Cards, last 5	3.2	3.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	6
Drawn	11
Away side won	15
Goals, home side	29
Goals, away side	58

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 25.5% · Draw 27.7% · Away 46.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.