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The data behind the ratings

Sunday 30 August 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

Utrecht v PSV Eindhoven

eredivisie · 10:15 UK

Finished 1–6. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	14	2
Position last season	6	1
Points this season	1	7
Goal difference this season	-4	+5
Elo rating going in	1,629	1,847
Matches on record, all seasons	568	539
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	13
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	3.6
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.8	3.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.8	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	3	1
Failed to score, last 10	2	0
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	1	9
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	4.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.6	20.4
Shots on target, last 5	5.0	8.6
Shots per possession	0.356	0.299
On-target shots per possession	0.132	0.128
Inside-box shots per possession	0.250	0.208
Share of shots from inside the box	70.7%	68.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.61	2.85
Possession, last 5	42.2%	61.6%
Corners, last 5	4.8	8.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.292	0.256
On-target allowed per possession	0.100	0.129
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.174	0.167
Opponents' inside-box share	61.5%	65.6%
Save rate	67.1%	67.7%
Saves, last 5	4.0	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.59	0.96
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	78.8%	87.4%
Passes, last 5	369	556
Fouls, last 5	16.2	7.2
Cards, last 5	1.4	0.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	31
Home side won	2
Drawn	6
Away side won	23
Goals, home side	30
Goals, away side	79

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 19.7% · Draw 19.8% · Away 60.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Aberdeen v Rangers

scottish-prem · 11:00 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	6	9
Position last season	9	3
Points this season	3	1
Goal difference this season	-1	-1
Elo rating going in	1,479	1,697
Matches on record, all seasons	599	444
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	2.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	2.1
Clean sheets, last 10	3	0
Failed to score, last 10	3	0
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	1
Days since last match	22	21
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.4	18.2
Shots on target, last 5	2.8	6.6
Shots per possession	0.205	0.307
On-target shots per possession	0.054	0.117
Inside-box shots per possession	0.135	0.219
Share of shots from inside the box	66.7%	71.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.38	1.70
Possession, last 5	51.4%	59.4%
Corners, last 5	4.0	7.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.240	0.235
On-target allowed per possession	0.083	0.085
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.159	0.173
Opponents' inside-box share	62.2%	71.9%
Save rate	64.6%	51.3%
Saves, last 5	3.0	1.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.45	1.63
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	72.8%	84.2%
Passes, last 5	406	472
Fouls, last 5	11.4	12.4
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	41
Home side won	6
Drawn	9
Away side won	26
Goals, home side	36
Goals, away side	84

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 23.6% · Draw 25.2% · Away 51.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Feyenoord v ADO Den Haag

eredivisie · 12:30 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	18
Position last season	2	—
Points this season	7	0
Goal difference this season	+4	-7
Elo rating going in	1,739	1,411
Matches on record, all seasons	542	387
Recent form
Points, last 5	11	0
Goals scored, last 5	2.2	0.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	2.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.8	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	0.9	2.9
Clean sheets, last 10	3	0
Failed to score, last 10	1	3
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	12	0
Losses in a row	0	7
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	2.2	1.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	3.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	19.2	12.8
Shots on target, last 5	6.4	2.6
Shots per possession	0.330	0.285
On-target shots per possession	0.113	0.083
Inside-box shots per possession	0.233	0.183
Share of shots from inside the box	70.9%	62.4%
Expected goals, last 5	3.04	0.98
Possession, last 5	51.4%	56.2%
Corners, last 5	7.6	4.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.214	0.246
On-target allowed per possession	0.059	0.126
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.151	0.172
Opponents' inside-box share	68.1%	68.5%
Save rate	70.8%	57.4%
Saves, last 5	2.0	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.10	2.29
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.4%	81.0%
Passes, last 5	453	455
Fouls, last 5	9.0	14.2
Cards, last 5	0.6	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	21
Home side won	11
Drawn	3
Away side won	7
Goals, home side	38
Goals, away side	35

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 82.9% · Draw 11.0% · Away 6.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Willem II v Heerenveen

eredivisie · 12:30 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	18	9
Position last season	—	8
Points this season	0	4
Goal difference this season	-6	-1
Elo rating going in	1,390	1,572
Matches on record, all seasons	374	557
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	3.0	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	2.3	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	0	3
Failed to score, last 10	0	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	3	1
Days since last match	15	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.4	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	2.6	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.2	12.6
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	5.4
Shots per possession	0.288	0.242
On-target shots per possession	0.085	0.095
Inside-box shots per possession	0.193	0.159
Share of shots from inside the box	66.4%	66.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.44	1.07
Possession, last 5	43.2%	53.6%
Corners, last 5	4.0	5.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.290	0.372
On-target allowed per possession	0.109	0.115
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.206	0.226
Opponents' inside-box share	71.3%	60.5%
Save rate	65.8%	76.3%
Saves, last 5	3.8	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.67	1.65
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	73.2%	85.4%
Passes, last 5	358	476
Fouls, last 5	13.0	7.2
Cards, last 5	1.6	0.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	21
Home side won	6
Drawn	3
Away side won	12
Goals, home side	29
Goals, away side	45

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 24.1% · Draw 22.5% · Away 53.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

AFC Wimbledon v Wigan

league-one · 13:00 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	23	24
Position last season	19	16
Points this season	1	0
Goal difference this season	-3	-3
Elo rating going in	1,298	1,353
Matches on record, all seasons	313	716
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	1
Goals scored, last 5	0.4	0.4
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	0.2	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	2.0	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	8	6
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	4
Days since last match	8	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	0.2	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	2.4	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	6.5	13.0
Shots on target, last 5	2.2	2.2
Shots per possession	0.174	0.221
On-target shots per possession	0.053	0.053
Inside-box shots per possession	0.092	0.159
Share of shots from inside the box	55.4%	72.0%
Expected goals, last 5	0.68	1.21
Possession, last 5	39.8%	56.5%
Corners, last 5	5.0	5.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.267	0.209
On-target allowed per possession	0.093	0.069
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.207	0.131
Opponents' inside-box share	76.8%	60.9%
Save rate	63.1%	69.4%
Saves, last 5	3.5	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.11	1.06
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	64.5%	75.5%
Passes, last 5	274	410
Fouls, last 5	13.8	11.5
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	2
Drawn	2
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	7
Goals, away side	13

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 29.8% · Draw 28.9% · Away 41.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Chelsea v Brighton

premier-league · 13:00 UK

Finished 4–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	6	1
Position last season	10	8
Points this season	3	3
Goal difference this season	+1	+4
Elo rating going in	1,751	1,752
Matches on record, all seasons	609	625
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	6
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	0.8	1.8
Goals conceded, last 10	2.0	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	0	5
Failed to score, last 10	5	2
Wins in a row	1	1
Unbeaten run	1	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	6	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.4	16.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.2	5.2
Shots per possession	0.256	0.250
On-target shots per possession	0.067	0.095
Inside-box shots per possession	0.148	0.186
Share of shots from inside the box	57.2%	74.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.17	2.13
Possession, last 5	51.6%	66.2%
Corners, last 5	4.2	6.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.237	0.240
On-target allowed per possession	0.119	0.082
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.174	0.164
Opponents' inside-box share	70.0%	66.0%
Save rate	63.1%	72.1%
Saves, last 5	2.8	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.50	1.20
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	85.0%	86.8%
Passes, last 5	488	553
Fouls, last 5	11.8	10.2
Cards, last 5	4.0	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	18
Home side won	9
Drawn	4
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	31
Goals, away side	25

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 51.0% · Draw 24.5% · Away 24.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Leeds v Brentford

premier-league · 13:00 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	1
Position last season	14	9
Points this season	3	3
Goal difference this season	+1	+3
Elo rating going in	1,733	1,740
Matches on record, all seasons	664	662
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	8
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	0.8	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	5	4
Failed to score, last 10	3	3
Wins in a row	1	1
Unbeaten run	1	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	8	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.0	13.8
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	4.2
Shots per possession	0.273	0.268
On-target shots per possession	0.088	0.081
Inside-box shots per possession	0.181	0.200
Share of shots from inside the box	65.7%	73.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.09	1.95
Possession, last 5	45.6%	45.6%
Corners, last 5	4.0	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.248	0.288
On-target allowed per possession	0.086	0.101
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.181	0.179
Opponents' inside-box share	71.8%	61.2%
Save rate	70.3%	71.8%
Saves, last 5	3.6	5.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.63	1.83
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	74.4%	79.4%
Passes, last 5	369	361
Fouls, last 5	11.2	11.0
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	18
Home side won	4
Drawn	8
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	15
Goals, away side	23

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 37.1% · Draw 28.3% · Away 34.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Paris FC v Nice

ligue-1 · 13:00 UK

Finished 3–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	4
Position last season	11	16
Points this season	1	1
Goal difference this season	+0	+0
Elo rating going in	1,592	1,557
Matches on record, all seasons	35	589
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	6
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	0.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.8	0.9
Goals conceded, last 10	0.9	0.9
Clean sheets, last 10	3	4
Failed to score, last 10	3	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	2	4
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	8	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.0	13.4
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	4.2
Shots per possession	0.275	0.229
On-target shots per possession	0.103	0.073
Inside-box shots per possession	0.207	0.153
Share of shots from inside the box	74.9%	63.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.42	1.30
Possession, last 5	48.2%	53.6%
Corners, last 5	3.8	6.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.226	0.243
On-target allowed per possession	0.068	0.066
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.153	0.149
Opponents' inside-box share	66.8%	59.0%
Save rate	71.4%	70.9%
Saves, last 5	2.0	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.05	0.85
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.2%	84.6%
Passes, last 5	434	459
Fouls, last 5	10.2	9.4
Cards, last 5	2.8	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	1
Drawn	1
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	2
Goals, away side	1

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 46.3% · Draw 28.4% · Away 25.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Sunderland v Fulham

premier-league · 13:00 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	6	12
Position last season	7	11
Points this season	0	0
Goal difference this season	-1	-1
Elo rating going in	1,668	1,703
Matches on record, all seasons	676	665
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	0.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	2	4
Failed to score, last 10	3	5
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	1
Days since last match	8	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.8	14.4
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	4.0
Shots per possession	0.272	0.277
On-target shots per possession	0.089	0.072
Inside-box shots per possession	0.178	0.171
Share of shots from inside the box	64.6%	63.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.05	1.29
Possession, last 5	50.2%	56.2%
Corners, last 5	4.4	6.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.247	0.275
On-target allowed per possession	0.094	0.093
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.162	0.187
Opponents' inside-box share	65.2%	66.3%
Save rate	67.7%	70.4%
Saves, last 5	2.6	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.20	1.49
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	83.0%	85.2%
Passes, last 5	433	516
Fouls, last 5	12.2	11.4
Cards, last 5	2.6	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	12
Home side won	3
Drawn	3
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	13
Goals, away side	16

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 39.2% · Draw 29.0% · Away 31.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

SC Freiburg v Werder Bremen

bundesliga · 13:30 UK

Finished 4–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	7	15
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,593	1,507
Matches on record, all seasons	510	512
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.8	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	1	1
Failed to score, last 10	2	3
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	3
Days since last match	106	106
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.8	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.4	2.0
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.2	12.4
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	4.4
Shots per possession	0.268	0.241
On-target shots per possession	0.100	0.078
Inside-box shots per possession	0.184	0.149
Share of shots from inside the box	67.8%	61.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.03	1.12
Possession, last 5	48.4%	47.0%
Corners, last 5	2.2	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.280	0.299
On-target allowed per possession	0.097	0.097
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.171	0.194
Opponents' inside-box share	61.8%	63.4%
Save rate	64.2%	67.2%
Saves, last 5	2.4	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.80	1.84
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.4%	78.4%
Passes, last 5	406	442
Fouls, last 5	9.2	9.2
Cards, last 5	0.8	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	28
Home side won	11
Drawn	8
Away side won	9
Goals, home side	42
Goals, away side	36

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 50.2% · Draw 25.9% · Away 23.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Dundee v Hibernian

scottish-prem · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	6
Position last season	8	5
Points this season	6	3
Goal difference this season	+3	+0
Elo rating going in	1,496	1,604
Matches on record, all seasons	387	485
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	9
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	4	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	3
Wins in a row	2	1
Unbeaten run	2	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	8	21
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	1.4
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	1.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.2	11.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	3.4
Shots per possession	0.265	0.229
On-target shots per possession	0.100	0.070
Inside-box shots per possession	0.182	0.150
Share of shots from inside the box	69.2%	64.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.30	1.39
Possession, last 5	43.6%	36.2%
Corners, last 5	4.6	5.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.264	0.249
On-target allowed per possession	0.084	0.078
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.156	0.144
Opponents' inside-box share	59.5%	58.3%
Save rate	68.2%	75.3%
Saves, last 5	3.0	4.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.82	1.41
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	71.8%	72.4%
Passes, last 5	355	297
Fouls, last 5	11.8	13.0
Cards, last 5	1.6	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	23
Home side won	3
Drawn	8
Away side won	12
Goals, home side	27
Goals, away side	41

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 32.4% · Draw 27.5% · Away 40.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Mansfield Town v Luton

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 5–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	11	2
Position last season	10	7
Points this season	3	4
Goal difference this season	+0	+1
Elo rating going in	1,417	1,484
Matches on record, all seasons	94	367
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	13
Goals scored, last 5	2.4	2.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	2.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	4	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	0
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	13
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	8	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.2	14.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	4.2
Shots per possession	0.279	0.319
On-target shots per possession	0.113	0.101
Inside-box shots per possession	0.170	0.237
Share of shots from inside the box	61.4%	73.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.50	2.90
Possession, last 5	40.0%	53.8%
Corners, last 5	4.8	6.5
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.239	0.270
On-target allowed per possession	0.063	0.082
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.146	0.152
Opponents' inside-box share	62.2%	54.5%
Save rate	67.9%	67.9%
Saves, last 5	2.5	4.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.73	1.91
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	72.0%	80.0%
Passes, last 5	312	413
Fouls, last 5	15.2	12.0
Cards, last 5	1.6	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	1
Drawn	1
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	4
Goals, away side	2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 34.9% · Draw 25.7% · Away 39.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

ST Mirren v Motherwell

scottish-prem · 14:00 UK

Finished 3–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	3
Position last season	11	4
Points this season	6	4
Goal difference this season	+3	+1
Elo rating going in	1,486	1,594
Matches on record, all seasons	487	599
Recent form
Points, last 5	11	8
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	0.4	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	0.8	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	0.9	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	4	3
Failed to score, last 10	4	3
Wins in a row	3	0
Unbeaten run	6	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	22	21
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	0.6	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.2	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.0	11.4
Shots on target, last 5	5.7	3.6
Shots per possession	0.242	0.214
On-target shots per possession	0.087	0.074
Inside-box shots per possession	0.157	0.135
Share of shots from inside the box	65.4%	62.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.33	1.12
Possession, last 5	47.7%	51.0%
Corners, last 5	7.3	2.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.168	0.269
On-target allowed per possession	0.060	0.080
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.111	0.177
Opponents' inside-box share	64.8%	65.9%
Save rate	70.7%	56.3%
Saves, last 5	1.7	1.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.79	1.10
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	77.7%	83.0%
Passes, last 5	409	470
Fouls, last 5	13.0	12.2
Cards, last 5	1.8	2.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	42
Home side won	9
Drawn	14
Away side won	19
Goals, home side	33
Goals, away side	60

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 36.5% · Draw 29.8% · Away 33.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Nacional v Estrela

primeira-liga · 14:30 UK

Finished 2–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	6	6
Position last season	14	15
Points this season	4	2
Goal difference this season	+1	+0
Elo rating going in	1,491	1,501
Matches on record, all seasons	361	106
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	0.9	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	5	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	4
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	7	15
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	1.2
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	2.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.8	7.8
Shots on target, last 5	2.2	3.8
Shots per possession	0.254	0.248
On-target shots per possession	0.078	0.089
Inside-box shots per possession	0.137	0.163
Share of shots from inside the box	54.1%	66.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.05	1.21
Possession, last 5	50.6%	39.4%
Corners, last 5	4.4	2.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.329	0.229
On-target allowed per possession	0.088	0.071
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.197	0.131
Opponents' inside-box share	59.8%	55.7%
Save rate	76.1%	64.5%
Saves, last 5	3.4	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.63	2.09
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	78.4%	76.6%
Passes, last 5	383	316
Fouls, last 5	13.6	13.6
Cards, last 5	2.2	3.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	1
Drawn	1
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	3
Goals, away side	4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 39.9% · Draw 29.2% · Away 30.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Telstar v Ajax

eredivisie · 14:45 UK

Finished 0–4. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	9	4
Position last season	14	5
Points this season	3	4
Goal difference this season	-1	+2
Elo rating going in	1,557	1,699
Matches on record, all seasons	42	539
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	9
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	0.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	0.8
Clean sheets, last 10	1	6
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	5
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	16	14
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.2	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.4	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	8.8	21.0
Shots on target, last 5	3.4	5.8
Shots per possession	0.249	0.301
On-target shots per possession	0.098	0.095
Inside-box shots per possession	0.182	0.175
Share of shots from inside the box	71.9%	58.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.37	1.69
Possession, last 5	43.2%	58.6%
Corners, last 5	3.2	6.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.328	0.285
On-target allowed per possession	0.140	0.096
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.230	0.174
Opponents' inside-box share	70.2%	60.6%
Save rate	71.2%	70.4%
Saves, last 5	4.4	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.81	0.93
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	72.2%	86.4%
Passes, last 5	324	557
Fouls, last 5	13.6	11.0
Cards, last 5	1.6	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	0
Drawn	0
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	2
Goals, away side	5

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 17.6% · Draw 19.4% · Away 63.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

FC Andorra v Eibar

laliga-2 · 15:00 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	7	11
Position last season	13	8
Points this season	3	3
Goal difference this season	+2	-1
Elo rating going in	1,444	1,502
Matches on record, all seasons	128	484
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	6
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.9	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	3	5
Failed to score, last 10	3	1
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	6	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.4	12.6
Shots on target, last 5	5.0	3.0
Shots per possession	0.242	0.236
On-target shots per possession	0.088	0.066
Inside-box shots per possession	0.159	0.168
Share of shots from inside the box	63.8%	71.1%
Expected goals, last 5	0.93	1.41
Possession, last 5	62.0%	48.4%
Corners, last 5	2.2	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.242	0.269
On-target allowed per possession	0.110	0.084
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.167	0.156
Opponents' inside-box share	67.4%	58.0%
Save rate	71.1%	71.4%
Saves, last 5	2.4	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.82	1.67
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	86.6%	83.2%
Passes, last 5	519	423
Fouls, last 5	16.0	9.4
Cards, last 5	3.8	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	1
Drawn	2
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	4
Goals, away side	7

Real Madrid v Malaga

la-liga · 15:00 UK

Finished 4–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	16
Position last season	2	4
Points this season	6	1
Goal difference this season	+4	-2
Elo rating going in	1,851	1,538
Matches on record, all seasons	610	606
Recent form
Points, last 5	15	6
Goals scored, last 5	2.6	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.9	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	0.9	0.8
Clean sheets, last 10	3	3
Failed to score, last 10	1	2
Wins in a row	5	0
Unbeaten run	5	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	4	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.6	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.0	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.0	11.2
Shots on target, last 5	6.4	3.4
Shots per possession	0.257	0.258
On-target shots per possession	0.107	0.094
Inside-box shots per possession	0.182	0.183
Share of shots from inside the box	73.1%	70.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.53	1.06
Possession, last 5	62.8%	52.2%
Corners, last 5	3.5	5.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.305	0.227
On-target allowed per possession	0.084	0.083
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.193	0.117
Opponents' inside-box share	63.3%	50.9%
Save rate	72.1%	72.8%
Saves, last 5	2.0	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.72	0.97
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	91.6%	85.0%
Passes, last 5	543	474
Fouls, last 5	7.2	10.6
Cards, last 5	1.2	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	16
Home side won	12
Drawn	3
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	42
Goals, away side	14

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 86.6% · Draw 8.4% · Away 5.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

FC Augsburg v FC Schalke 04

bundesliga · 15:30 UK

Finished 3–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	—	—
Position last season	9	—
Points this season	—	—
Goal difference this season	—	—
Elo rating going in	1,555	1,445
Matches on record, all seasons	510	408
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	3.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	2.0	2.7
Clean sheets, last 10	0	0
Failed to score, last 10	2	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	1
Days since last match	106	1,191
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	1.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	3.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.6	13.8
Shots on target, last 5	5.2	5.6
Shots per possession	0.366	0.257
On-target shots per possession	0.144	0.096
Inside-box shots per possession	0.261	0.163
Share of shots from inside the box	69.3%	62.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.82	1.49
Possession, last 5	37.8%	47.2%
Corners, last 5	5.4	6.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.294	0.298
On-target allowed per possession	0.105	0.130
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.200	0.205
Opponents' inside-box share	68.2%	68.9%
Save rate	69.5%	60.1%
Saves, last 5	5.2	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.22	2.44
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	75.2%	72.6%
Passes, last 5	331	352
Fouls, last 5	8.2	10.4
Cards, last 5	1.2	2.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	22
Home side won	3
Drawn	9
Away side won	10
Goals, home side	24
Goals, away side	35

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 43.6% · Draw 26.0% · Away 30.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Manchester United v Ipswich

premier-league · 15:30 UK

Finished 5–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	4
Position last season	3	2
Points this season	0	3
Goal difference this season	-2	+1
Elo rating going in	1,794	1,631
Matches on record, all seasons	609	675
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	11
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.8	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	3	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	0	6
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	8	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	18.0	13.8
Shots on target, last 5	5.4	5.4
Shots per possession	0.317	0.261
On-target shots per possession	0.112	0.096
Inside-box shots per possession	0.214	0.189
Share of shots from inside the box	62.9%	72.9%
Expected goals, last 5	2.20	1.83
Possession, last 5	50.8%	51.2%
Corners, last 5	5.2	5.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.262	0.260
On-target allowed per possession	0.080	0.095
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.167	0.166
Opponents' inside-box share	65.0%	64.3%
Save rate	70.6%	69.8%
Saves, last 5	2.6	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.21	0.85
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	83.8%	80.2%
Passes, last 5	476	413
Fouls, last 5	10.4	12.4
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	1
Drawn	1
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	4
Goals, away side	3

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 68.8% · Draw 18.5% · Away 12.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Eyüpspor v Alanyaspor

super-lig · 16:00 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	15	4
Position last season	15	10
Points this season	0	4
Goal difference this season	-2	+1
Elo rating going in	1,555	1,597
Matches on record, all seasons	72	360
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	8
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	4	2
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	2
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.6	2.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.8	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	8.8	10.4
Shots on target, last 5	3.0	3.8
Shots per possession	0.217	0.234
On-target shots per possession	0.071	0.087
Inside-box shots per possession	0.100	0.149
Share of shots from inside the box	44.1%	64.0%
Expected goals, last 5	0.71	1.10
Possession, last 5	39.4%	44.0%
Corners, last 5	2.4	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.253	0.212
On-target allowed per possession	0.071	0.078
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.158	0.125
Opponents' inside-box share	62.0%	58.0%
Save rate	68.8%	72.5%
Saves, last 5	3.4	4.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.13	1.14
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	77.8%	80.0%
Passes, last 5	311	376
Fouls, last 5	13.6	15.2
Cards, last 5	1.4	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	3
Drawn	1
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	9
Goals, away side	3

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 29.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 41.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Napoli v Como

serie-a · 16:30 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	2
Position last season	2	4
Points this season	3	1
Goal difference this season	+2	+0
Elo rating going in	1,776	1,712
Matches on record, all seasons	609	77
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	11
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	0.6	0.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.8
Goals conceded, last 10	0.6	0.8
Clean sheets, last 10	7	6
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	3	0
Unbeaten run	3	6
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	8	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	1.8
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.2	0.8
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.2	17.0
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	5.6
Shots per possession	0.224	0.251
On-target shots per possession	0.067	0.083
Inside-box shots per possession	0.137	0.174
Share of shots from inside the box	58.2%	71.1%
Expected goals, last 5	0.88	1.87
Possession, last 5	57.2%	63.4%
Corners, last 5	4.2	7.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.219	0.241
On-target allowed per possession	0.078	0.063
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.140	0.153
Opponents' inside-box share	63.3%	65.8%
Save rate	73.4%	69.7%
Saves, last 5	2.2	1.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.96	1.04
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	89.0%	88.2%
Passes, last 5	533	512
Fouls, last 5	7.6	11.6
Cards, last 5	1.0	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	1
Drawn	2
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	4
Goals, away side	3

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 37.7% · Draw 31.4% · Away 31.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Cadiz v Valladolid

laliga-2 · 17:00 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	11	21
Position last season	18	16
Points this season	2	0
Goal difference this season	+0	-3
Elo rating going in	1,377	1,372
Matches on record, all seasons	408	482
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	0
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	0.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	0.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	4	6
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	5
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	0.4
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.4	2.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	7.0	11.2
Shots on target, last 5	2.5	2.6
Shots per possession	0.193	0.189
On-target shots per possession	0.064	0.042
Inside-box shots per possession	0.121	0.122
Share of shots from inside the box	64.3%	66.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.12	1.18
Possession, last 5	45.2%	55.0%
Corners, last 5	2.2	3.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.251	0.219
On-target allowed per possession	0.088	0.080
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.178	0.135
Opponents' inside-box share	67.6%	62.2%
Save rate	64.6%	65.6%
Saves, last 5	3.0	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.93	3.29
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.0%	85.8%
Passes, last 5	336	473
Fouls, last 5	11.0	12.2
Cards, last 5	2.4	3.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	3
Drawn	4
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	6
Goals, away side	7

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 38.4% · Draw 31.3% · Away 30.3% — bet365, pre_match.

Casa Pia v Moreirense

primeira-liga · 17:00 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	18	15
Position last season	16	7
Points this season	0	1
Goal difference this season	-10	-4
Elo rating going in	1,518	1,556
Matches on record, all seasons	141	408
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	5
Goals scored, last 5	0.4	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	0.5	0.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	6	5
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	3	1
Days since last match	6	14
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	0.4	0.4
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	2.8
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	8.8	9.8
Shots on target, last 5	3.2	3.0
Shots per possession	0.235	0.182
On-target shots per possession	0.080	0.058
Inside-box shots per possession	0.151	0.096
Share of shots from inside the box	66.9%	52.8%
Expected goals, last 5	0.50	0.75
Possession, last 5	44.0%	55.2%
Corners, last 5	4.0	4.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.223	0.244
On-target allowed per possession	0.064	0.079
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.142	0.173
Opponents' inside-box share	59.7%	72.8%
Save rate	67.3%	59.2%
Saves, last 5	2.2	1.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.01	1.84
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	78.4%	84.4%
Passes, last 5	347	494
Fouls, last 5	13.0	12.2
Cards, last 5	3.2	3.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	2
Drawn	1
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	11
Goals, away side	9

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 39.8% · Draw 30.7% · Away 29.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Mallorca v AD Ceuta FC

laliga-2 · 17:00 UK

Finished 3–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	10	22
Position last season	17	9
Points this season	3	0
Goal difference this season	+0	-6
Elo rating going in	1,561	1,458
Matches on record, all seasons	472	44
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	6
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	4	4
Failed to score, last 10	2	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	2
Days since last match	6	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.0	9.8
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	3.2
Shots per possession	0.233	0.202
On-target shots per possession	0.085	0.067
Inside-box shots per possession	0.155	0.130
Share of shots from inside the box	64.1%	65.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.13	1.21
Possession, last 5	59.6%	49.6%
Corners, last 5	3.6	3.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.265	0.305
On-target allowed per possession	0.070	0.110
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.170	0.214
Opponents' inside-box share	62.4%	70.0%
Save rate	67.4%	68.4%
Saves, last 5	1.6	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.44	1.10
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	85.8%	83.8%
Passes, last 5	496	405
Fouls, last 5	14.0	15.4
Cards, last 5	2.6	2.4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 66.5% · Draw 19.5% · Away 13.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Deportivo La Coruna v Valencia

la-liga · 17:30 UK

Finished 3–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	9	13
Position last season	2	9
Points this season	2	1
Goal difference this season	+0	-1
Elo rating going in	1,533	1,614
Matches on record, all seasons	400	610
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	8
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	0.9	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	0	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	6	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	8.6	13.6
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	4.0
Shots per possession	0.241	0.333
On-target shots per possession	0.097	0.096
Inside-box shots per possession	0.167	0.214
Share of shots from inside the box	67.7%	62.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.09	1.13
Possession, last 5	39.6%	41.6%
Corners, last 5	2.4	4.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.211	0.207
On-target allowed per possession	0.068	0.069
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.122	0.135
Opponents' inside-box share	57.5%	67.2%
Save rate	72.1%	72.3%
Saves, last 5	2.4	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.44	1.04
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	83.2%	79.4%
Passes, last 5	393	381
Fouls, last 5	11.2	11.6
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	12
Home side won	1
Drawn	4
Away side won	7
Goals, home side	13
Goals, away side	22

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 37.4% · Draw 32.3% · Away 30.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Cambuur v Twente

eredivisie · 18:00 UK

Finished 1–4. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	18	10
Position last season	—	4
Points this season	0	3
Goal difference this season	-9	+1
Elo rating going in	1,344	1,666
Matches on record, all seasons	175	516
Recent form
Points, last 5	1	7
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	2.8	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	2.5	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	1	1
Failed to score, last 10	5	2
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	3	0
Days since last match	7	14
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.4	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	2.6	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.8	19.8
Shots on target, last 5	5.2	6.8
Shots per possession	0.268	0.319
On-target shots per possession	0.076	0.116
Inside-box shots per possession	0.186	0.221
Share of shots from inside the box	69.1%	67.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.43	1.93
Possession, last 5	57.4%	54.0%
Corners, last 5	7.4	7.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.290	0.250
On-target allowed per possession	0.128	0.100
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.184	0.146
Opponents' inside-box share	64.1%	58.6%
Save rate	59.8%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	3.6	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.42	1.16
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	83.2%	82.4%
Passes, last 5	469	480
Fouls, last 5	12.4	8.8
Cards, last 5	2.2	0.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	1
Drawn	2
Away side won	7
Goals, home side	5
Goals, away side	16

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 12.5% · Draw 17.6% · Away 69.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Başakşehir v Kasımpaşa

super-lig · 18:30 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	7	3
Position last season	5	13
Points this season	3	4
Goal difference this season	+1	+1
Elo rating going in	1,697	1,599
Matches on record, all seasons	502	496
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	8
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	0.7	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	6	4
Failed to score, last 10	2	1
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	3
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	7	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	1.4
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	2.4
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.4	8.6
Shots on target, last 5	4.6	3.2
Shots per possession	0.298	0.191
On-target shots per possession	0.097	0.070
Inside-box shots per possession	0.214	0.095
Share of shots from inside the box	73.6%	50.0%
Expected goals, last 5	2.04	1.10
Possession, last 5	47.4%	39.0%
Corners, last 5	3.2	3.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.247	0.200
On-target allowed per possession	0.084	0.078
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.149	0.140
Opponents' inside-box share	58.5%	68.7%
Save rate	79.1%	69.2%
Saves, last 5	4.4	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.11	0.95
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	83.6%	76.6%
Passes, last 5	405	302
Fouls, last 5	13.4	15.4
Cards, last 5	2.4	3.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	26
Home side won	17
Drawn	4
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	58
Goals, away side	31

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 57.0% · Draw 23.8% · Away 19.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Samsunspor v Fenerbahçe

super-lig · 18:30 UK

Finished 0–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	6
Position last season	7	2
Points this season	4	3
Goal difference this season	+2	+1
Elo rating going in	1,669	1,845
Matches on record, all seasons	144	536
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	10
Goals scored, last 5	2.4	2.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	2.2	2.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	1	1
Wins in a row	1	1
Unbeaten run	3	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	8	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.6	22.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	9.2
Shots per possession	0.233	0.306
On-target shots per possession	0.090	0.124
Inside-box shots per possession	0.160	0.191
Share of shots from inside the box	66.9%	61.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.36	2.43
Possession, last 5	57.2%	61.0%
Corners, last 5	2.6	7.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.391	0.283
On-target allowed per possession	0.112	0.094
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.261	0.152
Opponents' inside-box share	66.3%	54.3%
Save rate	62.2%	67.3%
Saves, last 5	4.4	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.98	0.90
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.8%	88.2%
Passes, last 5	423	533
Fouls, last 5	11.4	9.4
Cards, last 5	2.0	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	1
Drawn	5
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	8
Goals, away side	9

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 18.6% · Draw 22.6% · Away 58.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Cagliari v Inter

serie-a · 18:45 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	1
Position last season	14	1
Points this season	3	3
Goal difference this season	+1	+3
Elo rating going in	1,567	1,856
Matches on record, all seasons	533	609
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	11
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	2.6
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	2.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	3	3
Failed to score, last 10	4	0
Wins in a row	3	1
Unbeaten run	3	11
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	8	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	3.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.4	13.4
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	5.2
Shots per possession	0.300	0.229
On-target shots per possession	0.085	0.094
Inside-box shots per possession	0.193	0.174
Share of shots from inside the box	64.2%	76.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.48	1.76
Possession, last 5	49.2%	63.4%
Corners, last 5	4.2	5.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.214	0.294
On-target allowed per possession	0.070	0.091
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.137	0.179
Opponents' inside-box share	63.9%	61.8%
Save rate	68.4%	67.3%
Saves, last 5	2.8	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.30	0.92
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	83.8%	90.2%
Passes, last 5	410	614
Fouls, last 5	10.4	9.0
Cards, last 5	1.4	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	28
Home side won	4
Drawn	6
Away side won	18
Goals, home side	27
Goals, away side	58

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 12.2% · Draw 20.6% · Away 67.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Lazio v Genoa

serie-a · 18:45 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	7
Position last season	9	16
Points this season	3	0
Goal difference this season	+1	-2
Elo rating going in	1,683	1,564
Matches on record, all seasons	609	571
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	2
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	0.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	0.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	7
Wins in a row	2	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	3
Days since last match	6	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.6	8.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	2.0
Shots per possession	0.223	0.214
On-target shots per possession	0.103	0.056
Inside-box shots per possession	0.138	0.118
Share of shots from inside the box	62.7%	56.3%
Expected goals, last 5	0.76	0.72
Possession, last 5	48.2%	53.0%
Corners, last 5	4.4	3.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.243	0.234
On-target allowed per possession	0.084	0.088
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.158	0.158
Opponents' inside-box share	66.5%	64.5%
Save rate	68.3%	71.1%
Saves, last 5	3.4	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.25	1.25
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	87.6%	81.8%
Passes, last 5	474	395
Fouls, last 5	13.6	9.0
Cards, last 5	3.0	0.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	30
Home side won	15
Drawn	4
Away side won	11
Goals, home side	56
Goals, away side	38

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 44.6% · Draw 31.9% · Away 23.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Monaco v Marseille

ligue-1 · 18:45 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	5	1
Position last season	7	5
Points this season	3	3
Goal difference this season	+1	+4
Elo rating going in	1,664	1,665
Matches on record, all seasons	511	587
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.8	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	1	2
Wins in a row	1	3
Unbeaten run	1	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	9
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.2	17.8
Shots on target, last 5	5.2	7.2
Shots per possession	0.249	0.311
On-target shots per possession	0.093	0.113
Inside-box shots per possession	0.176	0.199
Share of shots from inside the box	72.2%	62.7%
Expected goals, last 5	0.98	1.94
Possession, last 5	56.0%	57.6%
Corners, last 5	5.2	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.321	0.237
On-target allowed per possession	0.110	0.077
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.214	0.167
Opponents' inside-box share	66.4%	70.5%
Save rate	61.6%	64.2%
Saves, last 5	2.0	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.09	1.74
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	83.8%	85.2%
Passes, last 5	509	517
Fouls, last 5	12.2	12.8
Cards, last 5	1.8	2.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	27
Home side won	12
Drawn	7
Away side won	8
Goals, home side	54
Goals, away side	38

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 38.9% · Draw 26.7% · Away 34.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Celta Vigo v Athletic Club

la-liga · 19:30 UK

Finished 0–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	12	19
Position last season	6	12
Points this season	1	0
Goal difference this season	-1	-4
Elo rating going in	1,625	1,602
Matches on record, all seasons	534	610
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	1
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	2.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	2.0
Clean sheets, last 10	3	1
Failed to score, last 10	3	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	3
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.8	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	2.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	7.4	13.6
Shots on target, last 5	3.2	4.6
Shots per possession	0.139	0.268
On-target shots per possession	0.067	0.086
Inside-box shots per possession	0.092	0.183
Share of shots from inside the box	58.7%	67.8%
Expected goals, last 5	0.94	1.12
Possession, last 5	52.4%	43.0%
Corners, last 5	3.0	5.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.272	0.178
On-target allowed per possession	0.091	0.091
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.179	0.125
Opponents' inside-box share	64.1%	67.2%
Save rate	69.8%	64.8%
Saves, last 5	3.4	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.61	1.42
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	86.2%	74.6%
Passes, last 5	536	363
Fouls, last 5	10.6	13.0
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	28
Home side won	7
Drawn	7
Away side won	14
Goals, home side	31
Goals, away side	38

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 39.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 30.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Cordoba v Granada CF

laliga-2 · 19:30 UK

Finished 1–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	8	3
Position last season	10	14
Points this season	3	4
Goal difference this season	+0	+2
Elo rating going in	1,459	1,437
Matches on record, all seasons	250	592
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	0.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	2	4
Failed to score, last 10	1	3
Wins in a row	1	1
Unbeaten run	1	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	9	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.6	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.2	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	20.8	10.4
Shots on target, last 5	6.0	3.4
Shots per possession	0.318	0.206
On-target shots per possession	0.096	0.076
Inside-box shots per possession	0.205	0.120
Share of shots from inside the box	63.9%	58.3%
Expected goals, last 5	2.65	1.14
Possession, last 5	60.0%	51.0%
Corners, last 5	8.6	4.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.288	0.279
On-target allowed per possession	0.104	0.102
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.186	0.167
Opponents' inside-box share	62.0%	59.6%
Save rate	72.2%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	2.0	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.39	0.38
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	85.0%	81.8%
Passes, last 5	462	400
Fouls, last 5	14.8	10.6
Cards, last 5	3.0	2.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	3
Drawn	1
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	14
Goals, away side	15

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 51.6% · Draw 29.2% · Away 19.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Famalicao v GIL Vicente

primeira-liga · 19:30 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	14	5
Position last season	5	6
Points this season	1	6
Goal difference this season	-2	+3
Elo rating going in	1,632	1,587
Matches on record, all seasons	241	364
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	7
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	3	4
Failed to score, last 10	2	4
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	0	2
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.0	11.6
Shots on target, last 5	3.0	3.2
Shots per possession	0.203	0.234
On-target shots per possession	0.080	0.072
Inside-box shots per possession	0.134	0.138
Share of shots from inside the box	66.0%	60.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.12	1.07
Possession, last 5	59.2%	51.8%
Corners, last 5	7.2	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.187	0.233
On-target allowed per possession	0.054	0.065
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.129	0.134
Opponents' inside-box share	67.6%	53.8%
Save rate	60.6%	68.6%
Saves, last 5	1.4	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.93	1.14
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	86.8%	85.8%
Passes, last 5	501	430
Fouls, last 5	11.6	12.8
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	14
Home side won	6
Drawn	4
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	18
Goals, away side	18

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 44.9% · Draw 29.9% · Away 25.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.