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The data behind the ratings

Monday 31 August 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

Lecce v AS Roma

serie-a · 16:30 UK

Finished 0–4. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	1
Position last season	17	3
Points this season	3	3
Goal difference this season	+2	+4
Elo rating going in	1,542	1,755
Matches on record, all seasons	267	609
Recent form
Points, last 5	12	15
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	3.0
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	0.4
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	2.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	0.8
Clean sheets, last 10	3	7
Failed to score, last 10	5	0
Wins in a row	3	6
Unbeaten run	3	8
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.4	16.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	7.2
Shots per possession	0.266	0.243
On-target shots per possession	0.094	0.097
Inside-box shots per possession	0.174	0.185
Share of shots from inside the box	64.3%	76.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.25	2.44
Possession, last 5	32.8%	60.8%
Corners, last 5	2.8	5.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.203	0.212
On-target allowed per possession	0.074	0.080
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.156	0.119
Opponents' inside-box share	76.0%	56.9%
Save rate	71.8%	71.6%
Saves, last 5	4.4	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.86	0.54
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	71.4%	88.4%
Passes, last 5	252	540
Fouls, last 5	11.2	12.0
Cards, last 5	2.4	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	14
Home side won	1
Drawn	2
Away side won	11
Goals, home side	10
Goals, away side	26

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 12.5% · Draw 22.0% · Away 65.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Burgos v Real Sociedad II

laliga-2 · 17:00 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	9	9
Position last season	7	15
Points this season	3	3
Goal difference this season	+0	+0
Elo rating going in	1,519	1,395
Matches on record, all seasons	212	86
Recent form
Points, last 5	12	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	0.6	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	0.9
Goals conceded, last 10	0.7	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	6	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	4
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	8	9
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	1.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	1.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.6	11.4
Shots on target, last 5	3.4	4.2
Shots per possession	0.247	0.297
On-target shots per possession	0.085	0.088
Inside-box shots per possession	0.180	0.183
Share of shots from inside the box	71.3%	63.6%
Expected goals, last 5	—	1.38
Possession, last 5	40.0%	47.4%
Corners, last 5	2.4	5.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.243	0.238
On-target allowed per possession	0.071	0.084
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.129	0.159
Opponents' inside-box share	52.0%	66.8%
Save rate	75.7%	69.8%
Saves, last 5	3.4	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	—	0.74
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	76.2%	78.0%
Passes, last 5	322	392
Fouls, last 5	12.6	12.8
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	2
Drawn	2
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	2
Goals, away side	0

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 50.5% · Draw 28.7% · Away 20.8% — bet365, pre_match.

Osasuna v Getafe

la-liga · 17:30 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	6	7
Position last season	16	7
Points this season	4	3
Goal difference this season	+1	-2
Elo rating going in	1,585	1,591
Matches on record, all seasons	542	618
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	9
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	0.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	1	4
Failed to score, last 10	3	6
Wins in a row	1	1
Unbeaten run	2	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	4	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.6	6.8
Shots on target, last 5	6.0	2.0
Shots per possession	0.256	0.185
On-target shots per possession	0.103	0.038
Inside-box shots per possession	0.169	0.111
Share of shots from inside the box	64.2%	59.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.58	0.67
Possession, last 5	53.6%	44.8%
Corners, last 5	6.6	3.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.201	0.212
On-target allowed per possession	0.071	0.080
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.105	0.130
Opponents' inside-box share	49.6%	63.7%
Save rate	65.5%	72.5%
Saves, last 5	1.4	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.80	0.88
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.2%	72.4%
Passes, last 5	417	307
Fouls, last 5	14.0	14.8
Cards, last 5	2.4	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	22
Home side won	4
Drawn	9
Away side won	9
Goals, home side	18
Goals, away side	24

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 42.6% · Draw 34.0% · Away 23.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Atalanta v Bologna

serie-a · 18:45 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	11
Position last season	7	8
Points this season	3	0
Goal difference this season	+1	-1
Elo rating going in	1,709	1,652
Matches on record, all seasons	571	571
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	8
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	3	3
Failed to score, last 10	3	5
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	0.6	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.6	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.0	11.4
Shots on target, last 5	5.2	4.2
Shots per possession	0.257	0.206
On-target shots per possession	0.081	0.067
Inside-box shots per possession	0.168	0.132
Share of shots from inside the box	65.4%	63.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.24	1.12
Possession, last 5	52.6%	54.4%
Corners, last 5	3.4	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.289	0.220
On-target allowed per possession	0.102	0.068
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.176	0.141
Opponents' inside-box share	60.9%	63.2%
Save rate	76.8%	62.1%
Saves, last 5	4.8	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.40	1.00
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	85.2%	86.2%
Passes, last 5	498	452
Fouls, last 5	14.2	12.8
Cards, last 5	1.6	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	28
Home side won	16
Drawn	4
Away side won	8
Goals, home side	42
Goals, away side	26

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 50.4% · Draw 26.4% · Away 23.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Aston Villa v Arsenal

premier-league · 19:00 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	16	1
Position last season	4	1
Points this season	0	3
Goal difference this season	-4	+3
Elo rating going in	1,787	1,925
Matches on record, all seasons	639	609
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	15
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	0.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.9	0.5
Clean sheets, last 10	1	7
Failed to score, last 10	2	0
Wins in a row	0	6
Unbeaten run	0	6
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	8	10
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.0	16.6
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	5.8
Shots per possession	0.242	0.269
On-target shots per possession	0.084	0.087
Inside-box shots per possession	0.143	0.179
Share of shots from inside the box	58.0%	68.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.15	2.01
Possession, last 5	46.0%	60.6%
Corners, last 5	4.6	4.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.292	0.200
On-target allowed per possession	0.103	0.055
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.183	0.123
Opponents' inside-box share	64.7%	58.7%
Save rate	66.2%	70.4%
Saves, last 5	3.0	1.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.87	0.59
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	83.6%	88.0%
Passes, last 5	388	531
Fouls, last 5	9.0	9.6
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	26
Home side won	8
Drawn	2
Away side won	16
Goals, home side	29
Goals, away side	51

Benfica v Estoril

primeira-liga · 19:15 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	15
Position last season	3	10
Points this season	4	1
Goal difference this season	+7	-4
Elo rating going in	1,889	1,535
Matches on record, all seasons	530	369
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	2
Goals scored, last 5	3.2	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	2.8	0.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	3	0
Failed to score, last 10	0	4
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	51	0
Losses in a row	0	2
Days since last match	14	9
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Scored away, last 5 there	3.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	19.8	13.6
Shots on target, last 5	7.6	4.6
Shots per possession	0.333	0.215
On-target shots per possession	0.120	0.071
Inside-box shots per possession	0.255	0.130
Share of shots from inside the box	76.6%	61.0%
Expected goals, last 5	3.02	1.08
Possession, last 5	54.8%	50.4%
Corners, last 5	6.8	4.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.235	0.238
On-target allowed per possession	0.078	0.082
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.162	0.160
Opponents' inside-box share	68.6%	72.2%
Save rate	70.3%	55.4%
Saves, last 5	2.0	1.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.91	1.94
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.8%	83.0%
Passes, last 5	477	420
Fouls, last 5	11.6	12.0
Cards, last 5	1.6	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	22
Home side won	20
Drawn	2
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	55
Goals, away side	16

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 80.4% · Draw 11.8% · Away 7.8% — bet365, pre_match.

SC Braga v Guimaraes

primeira-liga · 19:15 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	5	9
Position last season	4	8
Points this season	1	3
Goal difference this season	+0	-1
Elo rating going in	1,733	1,589
Matches on record, all seasons	529	531
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	3
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	3	4
Failed to score, last 10	0	3
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	4	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	22	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	8.8	17.4
Shots on target, last 5	3.0	3.4
Shots per possession	0.135	0.273
On-target shots per possession	0.050	0.073
Inside-box shots per possession	0.079	0.170
Share of shots from inside the box	55.2%	62.3%
Expected goals, last 5	0.82	1.78
Possession, last 5	59.8%	57.2%
Corners, last 5	3.4	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.274	0.195
On-target allowed per possession	0.084	0.088
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.144	0.119
Opponents' inside-box share	50.3%	61.4%
Save rate	62.8%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	2.6	1.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.51	0.77
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	85.0%	83.6%
Passes, last 5	551	436
Fouls, last 5	14.0	14.4
Cards, last 5	2.6	2.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	17
Drawn	8
Away side won	7
Goals, home side	52
Goals, away side	29

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 54.9% · Draw 25.8% · Away 19.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Barcelona v Rayo Vallecano

la-liga · 19:30 UK

Finished 5–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	9
Position last season	1	8
Points this season	6	1
Goal difference this season	+7	-1
Elo rating going in	1,883	1,619
Matches on record, all seasons	610	592
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	8
Goals scored, last 5	2.2	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	2.2	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	0.7	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	5	3
Failed to score, last 10	1	1
Wins in a row	2	0
Unbeaten run	2	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	4	11
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.4	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.4	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.4	10.0
Shots on target, last 5	6.0	4.6
Shots per possession	0.196	0.257
On-target shots per possession	0.088	0.100
Inside-box shots per possession	0.151	0.145
Share of shots from inside the box	74.9%	60.0%
Expected goals, last 5	2.25	1.28
Possession, last 5	68.2%	50.0%
Corners, last 5	6.2	3.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.290	0.271
On-target allowed per possession	0.080	0.099
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.208	0.184
Opponents' inside-box share	70.1%	68.0%
Save rate	73.7%	70.7%
Saves, last 5	1.8	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.81	1.50
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	89.6%	79.4%
Passes, last 5	643	378
Fouls, last 5	9.6	15.4
Cards, last 5	1.2	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	22
Home side won	16
Drawn	3
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	63
Goals, away side	15

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 85.0% · Draw 9.9% · Away 5.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.