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The data behind the ratings

Wednesday 2 September 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

Barnsley v Blackpool

league-one · 18:45 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	7	1
Position last season	15	13
Points this season	4	7
Goal difference this season	+1	+5
Elo rating going in	1,373	1,438
Matches on record, all seasons	703	680
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	13
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	0.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	0.4
Clean sheets, last 10	3	6
Failed to score, last 10	4	1
Wins in a row	1	2
Unbeaten run	2	7
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	4	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.0	13.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	6.8
Shots per possession	0.240	0.311
On-target shots per possession	0.091	0.128
Inside-box shots per possession	0.159	0.223
Share of shots from inside the box	66.6%	69.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.37	1.98
Possession, last 5	55.5%	38.0%
Corners, last 5	5.0	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.248	0.200
On-target allowed per possession	0.079	0.058
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.179	0.116
Opponents' inside-box share	71.7%	50.9%
Save rate	71.6%	82.7%
Saves, last 5	3.2	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.54	1.80
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	72.0%	69.5%
Passes, last 5	386	305
Fouls, last 5	11.5	10.0
Cards, last 5	1.4	0.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	18
Home side won	7
Drawn	3
Away side won	8
Goals, home side	21
Goals, away side	24

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 42.7% · Draw 26.9% · Away 30.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Burton Albion v AFC Wimbledon

league-one · 18:45 UK

Finished 4–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	10	13
Position last season	17	19
Points this season	4	4
Goal difference this season	+0	-2
Elo rating going in	1,368	1,307
Matches on record, all seasons	498	314
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	0.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	0.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	7
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	2
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	4	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.2	6.0
Shots on target, last 5	5.0	1.8
Shots per possession	0.248	0.186
On-target shots per possession	0.091	0.050
Inside-box shots per possession	0.158	0.091
Share of shots from inside the box	56.9%	51.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.51	0.47
Possession, last 5	40.0%	37.0%
Corners, last 5	2.0	5.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.204	0.271
On-target allowed per possession	0.061	0.093
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.136	0.212
Opponents' inside-box share	66.0%	77.5%
Save rate	71.9%	68.2%
Saves, last 5	2.5	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.46	1.91
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	67.2%	65.5%
Passes, last 5	282	268
Fouls, last 5	15.5	14.0
Cards, last 5	1.8	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	6
Drawn	4
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	14
Goals, away side	5

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 47.4% · Draw 28.4% · Away 24.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Celtic v Aberdeen

scottish-prem · 18:45 UK

Finished 3–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	10
Position last season	1	9
Points this season	9	3
Goal difference this season	+6	-2
Elo rating going in	1,802	1,473
Matches on record, all seasons	598	600
Recent form
Points, last 5	15	3
Goals scored, last 5	2.8	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	2.5	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	0.9	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	0	4
Wins in a row	10	0
Unbeaten run	10	0
Losses in a row	0	2
Days since last match	4	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.4	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.8	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	18.8	9.4
Shots on target, last 5	7.2	2.2
Shots per possession	0.272	0.212
On-target shots per possession	0.108	0.056
Inside-box shots per possession	0.171	0.136
Share of shots from inside the box	60.4%	65.0%
Expected goals, last 5	3.05	1.12
Possession, last 5	60.8%	50.0%
Corners, last 5	6.8	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.232	0.243
On-target allowed per possession	0.071	0.081
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.164	0.154
Opponents' inside-box share	71.7%	59.9%
Save rate	68.1%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	2.4	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.81	1.73
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	86.8%	73.6%
Passes, last 5	581	385
Fouls, last 5	10.2	13.2
Cards, last 5	2.2	2.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	57
Home side won	47
Drawn	6
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	140
Goals, away side	43

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 75.3% · Draw 16.2% · Away 8.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Dundee v ST Johnstone

scottish-prem · 18:45 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	8
Position last season	8	—
Points this season	6	3
Goal difference this season	+2	-1
Elo rating going in	1,487	1,402
Matches on record, all seasons	388	564
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	3
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	4	1
Failed to score, last 10	2	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	2
Days since last match	3	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.0	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.8	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	0.8
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.8
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.0	11.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.6	3.0
Shots per possession	0.274	0.264
On-target shots per possession	0.100	0.074
Inside-box shots per possession	0.186	0.167
Share of shots from inside the box	68.0%	64.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.37	1.40
Possession, last 5	41.8%	53.2%
Corners, last 5	4.8	4.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.275	0.289
On-target allowed per possession	0.082	0.100
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.172	0.159
Opponents' inside-box share	62.0%	57.0%
Save rate	69.2%	72.7%
Saves, last 5	3.0	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.63	1.28
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	72.6%	84.0%
Passes, last 5	348	450
Fouls, last 5	9.8	9.4
Cards, last 5	1.2	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	12
Drawn	7
Away side won	13
Goals, home side	37
Goals, away side	42

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 36.3% · Draw 27.0% · Away 36.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Kilmarnock v ST Mirren

scottish-prem · 18:45 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	12	2
Position last season	10	11
Points this season	0	7
Goal difference this season	-9	+3
Elo rating going in	1,468	1,488
Matches on record, all seasons	564	488
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	11
Goals scored, last 5	2.2	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	3.0	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.9	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	2.1	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	2	4
Failed to score, last 10	3	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	7
Losses in a row	3	0
Days since last match	4	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.8	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	2.4	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.2	17.0
Shots on target, last 5	5.4	6.0
Shots per possession	0.258	0.292
On-target shots per possession	0.104	0.109
Inside-box shots per possession	0.175	0.193
Share of shots from inside the box	68.0%	64.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.63	1.75
Possession, last 5	46.2%	46.3%
Corners, last 5	3.6	6.3
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.257	0.202
On-target allowed per possession	0.102	0.067
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.185	0.141
Opponents' inside-box share	72.1%	68.5%
Save rate	66.2%	68.2%
Saves, last 5	4.4	2.3
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.38	1.39
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	82.4%	79.7%
Passes, last 5	436	402
Fouls, last 5	11.8	14.3
Cards, last 5	2.4	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	42
Home side won	23
Drawn	10
Away side won	9
Goals, home side	61
Goals, away side	49

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 33.0% · Draw 27.3% · Away 39.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Luton v Stockport County

league-one · 18:45 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	13	3
Position last season	7	3
Points this season	4	6
Goal difference this season	-2	+5
Elo rating going in	1,474	1,488
Matches on record, all seasons	368	100
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	9
Goals scored, last 5	2.6	2.4
Goals conceded, last 5	2.6	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	2.4	2.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	0	1
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	3	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	2.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.5	15.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.2	5.8
Shots per possession	0.306	0.258
On-target shots per possession	0.096	0.097
Inside-box shots per possession	0.229	0.193
Share of shots from inside the box	73.8%	73.7%
Expected goals, last 5	2.50	1.43
Possession, last 5	52.2%	58.8%
Corners, last 5	6.8	7.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.307	0.263
On-target allowed per possession	0.095	0.120
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.186	0.180
Opponents' inside-box share	56.8%	69.2%
Save rate	63.2%	70.9%
Saves, last 5	3.5	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.76	1.58
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	79.0%	80.5%
Passes, last 5	382	516
Fouls, last 5	13.5	9.8
Cards, last 5	2.2	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	1
Drawn	1
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	4
Goals, away side	1

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 40.6% · Draw 26.4% · Away 33.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Millwall v Wrexham

championship · 18:45 UK

Finished 0–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	7	16
Position last season	3	7
Points this season	6	2
Goal difference this season	+1	-1
Elo rating going in	1,600	1,542
Matches on record, all seasons	701	95
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	3
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	0.9	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	6	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	1
Days since last match	4	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.4	14.4
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	4.8
Shots per possession	0.294	0.254
On-target shots per possession	0.087	0.080
Inside-box shots per possession	0.205	0.166
Share of shots from inside the box	70.3%	64.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.64	1.50
Possession, last 5	58.8%	48.0%
Corners, last 5	7.2	6.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.236	0.254
On-target allowed per possession	0.063	0.103
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.141	0.168
Opponents' inside-box share	55.5%	66.2%
Save rate	67.4%	63.3%
Saves, last 5	1.8	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.48	1.39
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	79.4%	79.4%
Passes, last 5	425	394
Fouls, last 5	11.4	12.8
Cards, last 5	1.2	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	1
Drawn	0
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	2
Goals, away side	2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 43.4% · Draw 27.7% · Away 28.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Motherwell v Dundee Utd

scottish-prem · 18:45 UK

Finished 3–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	6	6
Position last season	4	7
Points this season	5	4
Goal difference this season	+1	-2
Elo rating going in	1,593	1,503
Matches on record, all seasons	600	420
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	5
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	4	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	3	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	1.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	2.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.2	14.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	3.8
Shots per possession	0.243	0.275
On-target shots per possession	0.081	0.078
Inside-box shots per possession	0.158	0.189
Share of shots from inside the box	63.7%	67.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.47	1.42
Possession, last 5	52.8%	54.2%
Corners, last 5	3.8	4.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.303	0.307
On-target allowed per possession	0.098	0.121
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.197	0.204
Opponents' inside-box share	63.3%	66.5%
Save rate	57.1%	69.3%
Saves, last 5	2.0	4.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.34	1.44
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	85.8%	80.0%
Passes, last 5	495	439
Fouls, last 5	12.8	12.0
Cards, last 5	3.0	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	40
Home side won	16
Drawn	7
Away side won	17
Goals, home side	46
Goals, away side	56

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 48.3% · Draw 26.2% · Away 25.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

QPR v Cardiff

championship · 18:45 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	14
Position last season	15	2
Points this season	7	3
Goal difference this season	+3	+0
Elo rating going in	1,493	1,507
Matches on record, all seasons	672	681
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	6
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	2.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	2.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	4	0
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	3	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	4	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.2	20.2
Shots on target, last 5	7.4	7.6
Shots per possession	0.297	0.301
On-target shots per possession	0.117	0.103
Inside-box shots per possession	0.192	0.183
Share of shots from inside the box	64.0%	60.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.72	2.31
Possession, last 5	49.8%	68.2%
Corners, last 5	5.4	7.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.221	0.347
On-target allowed per possession	0.086	0.166
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.126	0.234
Opponents' inside-box share	58.5%	66.6%
Save rate	66.7%	68.5%
Saves, last 5	2.0	4.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.36	1.54
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.8%	87.2%
Passes, last 5	410	556
Fouls, last 5	10.4	10.0
Cards, last 5	1.2	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	18
Home side won	10
Drawn	4
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	29
Goals, away side	17

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 49.0% · Draw 24.0% · Away 27.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

West Brom v Charlton

championship · 18:45 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	6	1
Position last season	19	20
Points this season	6	9
Goal difference this season	+1	+3
Elo rating going in	1,505	1,504
Matches on record, all seasons	671	701
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	12
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	0.9	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	5	1
Failed to score, last 10	3	0
Wins in a row	0	3
Unbeaten run	0	3
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	4	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.2	11.8
Shots on target, last 5	5.2	4.2
Shots per possession	0.205	0.317
On-target shots per possession	0.083	0.114
Inside-box shots per possession	0.147	0.220
Share of shots from inside the box	70.8%	68.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.53	0.92
Possession, last 5	51.8%	38.2%
Corners, last 5	3.0	5.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.258	0.278
On-target allowed per possession	0.073	0.090
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.191	0.181
Opponents' inside-box share	73.3%	66.5%
Save rate	77.2%	73.3%
Saves, last 5	4.0	4.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.74	1.40
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.0%	71.8%
Passes, last 5	492	297
Fouls, last 5	8.2	11.4
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	0
Drawn	3
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	5
Goals, away side	6

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 53.7% · Draw 25.5% · Away 20.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Wigan v Milton Keynes Dons

league-one · 18:45 UK

Finished 3–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	24	11
Position last season	16	—
Points this season	0	3
Goal difference this season	-4	+0
Elo rating going in	1,344	1,385
Matches on record, all seasons	717	502
Recent form
Points, last 5	0	5
Goals scored, last 5	0.4	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	6	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	5
Losses in a row	5	0
Days since last match	3	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.5	17.5
Shots on target, last 5	3.2	4.5
Shots per possession	0.236	0.286
On-target shots per possession	0.061	0.073
Inside-box shots per possession	0.174	0.203
Share of shots from inside the box	74.1%	69.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.60	0.95
Possession, last 5	59.0%	45.0%
Corners, last 5	6.5	6.5
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.211	0.297
On-target allowed per possession	0.062	0.106
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.130	0.189
Opponents' inside-box share	60.1%	64.6%
Save rate	71.7%	73.4%
Saves, last 5	1.8	5.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.97	2.05
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	76.8%	74.8%
Passes, last 5	419	349
Fouls, last 5	12.0	8.5
Cards, last 5	1.8	0.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	3
Drawn	1
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	11
Goals, away side	6

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 40.0% · Draw 27.5% · Away 32.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Burnley v Middlesbrough

championship · 19:00 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	22	4
Position last season	19	5
Points this season	1	6
Goal difference this season	-5	+2
Elo rating going in	1,570	1,558
Matches on record, all seasons	621	695
Recent form
Points, last 5	2	6
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	2.3	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	0	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	2
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	4	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	3.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.2	18.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	3.8
Shots per possession	0.238	0.310
On-target shots per possession	0.077	0.093
Inside-box shots per possession	0.132	0.202
Share of shots from inside the box	57.5%	65.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.07	1.56
Possession, last 5	53.6%	60.6%
Corners, last 5	5.2	6.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.324	0.286
On-target allowed per possession	0.113	0.087
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.218	0.183
Opponents' inside-box share	69.8%	65.0%
Save rate	62.7%	60.8%
Saves, last 5	2.4	1.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.63	1.13
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.4%	86.6%
Passes, last 5	463	560
Fouls, last 5	11.2	11.6
Cards, last 5	2.2	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	14
Home side won	4
Drawn	5
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	12
Goals, away side	12

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 34.3% · Draw 26.4% · Away 39.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Falkirk v Rangers

scottish-prem · 19:00 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	11	6
Position last season	6	3
Points this season	1	4
Goal difference this season	-3	+0
Elo rating going in	1,518	1,703
Matches on record, all seasons	41	445
Recent form
Points, last 5	1	7
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	2.4	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	2.3
Goals conceded, last 10	2.6	2.0
Clean sheets, last 10	2	1
Failed to score, last 10	3	0
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	4	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	1.8
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	1.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	7.4	20.0
Shots on target, last 5	1.4	7.0
Shots per possession	0.198	0.310
On-target shots per possession	0.052	0.115
Inside-box shots per possession	0.124	0.214
Share of shots from inside the box	62.7%	69.7%
Expected goals, last 5	0.85	1.89
Possession, last 5	46.6%	60.8%
Corners, last 5	4.8	7.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.287	0.242
On-target allowed per possession	0.110	0.087
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.185	0.173
Opponents' inside-box share	62.7%	70.3%
Save rate	59.6%	54.0%
Saves, last 5	2.8	1.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.73	1.52
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	77.4%	85.0%
Passes, last 5	388	467
Fouls, last 5	15.2	12.8
Cards, last 5	2.4	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	0
Drawn	2
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	6
Goals, away side	12

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 17.8% · Draw 22.2% · Away 60.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Reading v Mansfield Town

league-one · 19:00 UK

Finished 5–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	17	5
Position last season	12	10
Points this season	1	6
Goal difference this season	-1	+3
Elo rating going in	1,401	1,427
Matches on record, all seasons	687	95
Recent form
Points, last 5	2	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	2.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	2.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	4	2
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	1	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	11	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	0.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.8	14.0
Shots on target, last 5	3.2	5.5
Shots per possession	0.190	0.313
On-target shots per possession	0.055	0.121
Inside-box shots per possession	0.130	0.200
Share of shots from inside the box	69.1%	62.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.42	1.56
Possession, last 5	53.0%	39.2%
Corners, last 5	4.8	5.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.217	0.232
On-target allowed per possession	0.088	0.068
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.131	0.144
Opponents' inside-box share	64.3%	63.2%
Save rate	68.4%	66.1%
Saves, last 5	3.2	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.06	1.81
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	75.8%	71.8%
Passes, last 5	375	302
Fouls, last 5	10.8	14.5
Cards, last 5	1.6	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	2
Drawn	1
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	8
Goals, away side	4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 46.9% · Draw 25.5% · Away 27.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.