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The data behind the ratings

Saturday 5 September 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

Lincoln v Southampton

championship · 11:30 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	16	3
Position last season	1	4
Points this season	4	7
Goal difference this season	-2	+5
Elo rating going in	1,561	1,616
Matches on record, all seasons	318	603
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	2.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	2.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	4	1
Failed to score, last 10	1	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	2	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	4	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.4	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.0	18.8
Shots on target, last 5	3.0	5.5
Shots per possession	0.327	0.290
On-target shots per possession	0.106	0.082
Inside-box shots per possession	0.226	0.197
Share of shots from inside the box	67.0%	67.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.56	2.29
Possession, last 5	33.8%	59.0%
Corners, last 5	5.2	7.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.222	0.337
On-target allowed per possession	0.069	0.099
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.130	0.222
Opponents' inside-box share	57.8%	64.4%
Save rate	68.9%	71.6%
Saves, last 5	4.0	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.48	0.89
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	65.5%	86.5%
Passes, last 5	238	499
Fouls, last 5	13.2	10.0
Cards, last 5	2.0	2.4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 23.6% · Draw 23.3% · Away 53.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Newcastle v Bournemouth

premier-league · 11:30 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	12
Position last season	12	6
Points this season	4	1
Goal difference this season	+2	-1
Elo rating going in	1,737	1,767
Matches on record, all seasons	618	622
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	6
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	0
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	2	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.4	11.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.2	4.0
Shots per possession	0.254	0.254
On-target shots per possession	0.084	0.088
Inside-box shots per possession	0.159	0.147
Share of shots from inside the box	62.2%	59.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.14	1.36
Possession, last 5	49.0%	46.6%
Corners, last 5	5.0	5.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.330	0.254
On-target allowed per possession	0.117	0.081
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.205	0.187
Opponents' inside-box share	63.3%	75.6%
Save rate	69.3%	69.5%
Saves, last 5	5.0	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.43	1.72
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	83.2%	82.4%
Passes, last 5	433	413
Fouls, last 5	10.0	13.2
Cards, last 5	2.0	2.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	16
Home side won	4
Drawn	7
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	21
Goals, away side	24

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 44.5% · Draw 26.0% · Away 29.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Peterborough v Sheffield Wednesday

league-one · 11:30 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	17	2
Position last season	18	24
Points this season	4	9
Goal difference this season	-5	+6
Elo rating going in	1,336	1,364
Matches on record, all seasons	689	704
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	12
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	2.6
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	0.7	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	2.0	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	2	1
Failed to score, last 10	4	3
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	1	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	4	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.0	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.4
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.3	17.0
Shots on target, last 5	5.7	7.7
Shots per possession	0.234	0.236
On-target shots per possession	0.080	0.071
Inside-box shots per possession	0.139	0.175
Share of shots from inside the box	59.3%	72.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.75	2.23
Possession, last 5	59.3%	55.7%
Corners, last 5	5.7	5.3
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.373	0.296
On-target allowed per possession	0.175	0.102
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.280	0.216
Opponents' inside-box share	72.0%	72.4%
Save rate	67.5%	69.3%
Saves, last 5	6.3	2.7
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.93	1.32
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	82.7%	79.0%
Passes, last 5	484	413
Fouls, last 5	9.3	11.0
Cards, last 5	0.6	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	3
Drawn	0
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	9
Goals, away side	8

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 30.7% · Draw 24.5% · Away 44.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Preston v Blackburn

championship · 11:30 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	23	13
Position last season	14	22
Points this season	0	5
Goal difference this season	-6	+0
Elo rating going in	1,445	1,487
Matches on record, all seasons	699	724
Recent form
Points, last 5	0	5
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	2.4	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	2.0	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	0	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	5	0
Days since last match	4	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	2.4	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.4
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.5	10.0
Shots on target, last 5	2.8	3.8
Shots per possession	0.267	0.231
On-target shots per possession	0.078	0.083
Inside-box shots per possession	0.186	0.159
Share of shots from inside the box	68.9%	68.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.07	1.05
Possession, last 5	44.8%	44.8%
Corners, last 5	5.2	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.298	0.268
On-target allowed per possession	0.085	0.080
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.187	0.186
Opponents' inside-box share	62.9%	71.2%
Save rate	62.8%	67.8%
Saves, last 5	2.0	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.48	1.81
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	75.2%	80.0%
Passes, last 5	355	411
Fouls, last 5	13.5	11.2
Cards, last 5	2.2	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	20
Home side won	8
Drawn	5
Away side won	7
Goals, home side	31
Goals, away side	30

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 38.5% · Draw 29.2% · Away 32.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Stoke City v Charlton

championship · 11:30 UK

Finished 4–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	21	3
Position last season	17	20
Points this season	3	10
Goal difference this season	-5	+3
Elo rating going in	1,435	1,506
Matches on record, all seasons	676	702
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	10
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	0.7	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	2.2	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	1	1
Failed to score, last 10	3	0
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	4
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	4	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.8	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.4
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.5	11.8
Shots on target, last 5	2.2	3.5
Shots per possession	0.218	0.321
On-target shots per possession	0.044	0.117
Inside-box shots per possession	0.152	0.223
Share of shots from inside the box	72.8%	68.4%
Expected goals, last 5	0.80	0.87
Possession, last 5	46.0%	38.0%
Corners, last 5	5.5	5.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.253	0.274
On-target allowed per possession	0.088	0.083
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.168	0.181
Opponents' inside-box share	64.9%	67.4%
Save rate	51.9%	73.1%
Saves, last 5	2.5	4.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.89	1.51
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.0%	73.8%
Passes, last 5	355	306
Fouls, last 5	15.8	11.8
Cards, last 5	2.8	0.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	2
Drawn	0
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	7
Goals, away side	5

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 44.4% · Draw 29.2% · Away 26.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Wigan v Stockport County

league-one · 11:30 UK

Finished 0–4. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	21	9
Position last season	16	3
Points this season	3	6
Goal difference this season	-2	+3
Elo rating going in	1,353	1,480
Matches on record, all seasons	718	101
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	6
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	2.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	5	1
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.0	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.2	15.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	5.5
Shots per possession	0.250	0.252
On-target shots per possession	0.075	0.096
Inside-box shots per possession	0.176	0.191
Share of shots from inside the box	71.7%	75.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.78	1.64
Possession, last 5	53.0%	61.8%
Corners, last 5	5.2	7.5
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.230	0.251
On-target allowed per possession	0.060	0.120
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.144	0.169
Opponents' inside-box share	60.7%	68.9%
Save rate	68.9%	69.8%
Saves, last 5	2.2	3.5
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.09	1.69
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	74.7%	82.0%
Passes, last 5	385	563
Fouls, last 5	12.2	9.5
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	0
Drawn	2
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	3
Goals, away side	7

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 31.6% · Draw 26.0% · Away 42.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Real Sociedad II v Tenerife

laliga-2 · 12:00 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	12	3
Position last season	15	—
Points this season	4	6
Goal difference this season	+0	+2
Elo rating going in	1,400	1,400
Matches on record, all seasons	87	389
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	6
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	0.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	0.8
Clean sheets, last 10	1	3
Failed to score, last 10	3	6
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	5	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.0	9.4
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	3.2
Shots per possession	0.290	0.216
On-target shots per possession	0.092	0.059
Inside-box shots per possession	0.176	0.123
Share of shots from inside the box	62.7%	57.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.36	—
Possession, last 5	45.0%	47.8%
Corners, last 5	5.4	3.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.234	0.174
On-target allowed per possession	0.084	0.048
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.158	0.112
Opponents' inside-box share	67.6%	59.7%
Save rate	66.7%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	3.6	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.71	—
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	78.0%	78.4%
Passes, last 5	384	389
Fouls, last 5	13.8	14.2
Cards, last 5	1.2	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	0
Drawn	0
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	1
Goals, away side	4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 39.0% · Draw 30.3% · Away 30.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Fiorentina v Torino

serie-a · 13:00 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	20	16
Position last season	13	13
Points this season	0	0
Goal difference this season	-7	-2
Elo rating going in	1,615	1,567
Matches on record, all seasons	610	534
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	4
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	0.6	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	5	2
Failed to score, last 10	5	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	2	2
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	0.4	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.8	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	0.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.6	11.6
Shots on target, last 5	3.4	3.4
Shots per possession	0.238	0.240
On-target shots per possession	0.065	0.054
Inside-box shots per possession	0.133	0.153
Share of shots from inside the box	57.1%	61.9%
Expected goals, last 5	0.90	1.45
Possession, last 5	47.6%	48.2%
Corners, last 5	4.0	3.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.291	0.284
On-target allowed per possession	0.107	0.090
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.182	0.195
Opponents' inside-box share	63.5%	69.1%
Save rate	76.5%	67.2%
Saves, last 5	5.0	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.54	1.64
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	82.8%	84.2%
Passes, last 5	389	438
Fouls, last 5	12.2	11.0
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	28
Home side won	9
Drawn	14
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	36
Goals, away side	32

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 48.8% · Draw 29.3% · Away 21.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

1899 Hoffenheim v Borussia Dortmund

bundesliga · 13:30 UK

Finished 2–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	9	3
Position last season	5	2
Points this season	0	3
Goal difference this season	-1	+2
Elo rating going in	1,594	1,735
Matches on record, all seasons	545	545
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	12
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	2.2
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	0.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.9
Goals conceded, last 10	2.2	0.8
Clean sheets, last 10	1	5
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	0	3
Unbeaten run	0	3
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	3.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.6	14.4
Shots on target, last 5	5.2	5.8
Shots per possession	0.260	0.250
On-target shots per possession	0.083	0.090
Inside-box shots per possession	0.157	0.188
Share of shots from inside the box	61.4%	76.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.76	1.99
Possession, last 5	58.4%	54.2%
Corners, last 5	7.4	4.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.287	0.197
On-target allowed per possession	0.120	0.082
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.205	0.117
Opponents' inside-box share	73.2%	59.1%
Save rate	56.7%	74.4%
Saves, last 5	2.4	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.38	1.05
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	83.2%	85.8%
Passes, last 5	490	520
Fouls, last 5	13.8	13.8
Cards, last 5	3.4	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	8
Drawn	9
Away side won	15
Goals, home side	46
Goals, away side	54

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 32.7% · Draw 24.9% · Away 42.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Bayer Leverkusen v Union Berlin

bundesliga · 13:30 UK

Finished 4–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	9	5
Position last season	6	11
Points this season	0	1
Goal difference this season	-1	+0
Elo rating going in	1,699	1,526
Matches on record, all seasons	545	241
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	8
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	2.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	2.2	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.8	1.9
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	0	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	4
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.8	13.8
Shots on target, last 5	5.8	6.4
Shots per possession	0.322	0.290
On-target shots per possession	0.113	0.118
Inside-box shots per possession	0.226	0.203
Share of shots from inside the box	68.2%	68.8%
Expected goals, last 5	2.30	1.92
Possession, last 5	57.6%	47.2%
Corners, last 5	5.8	4.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.352	0.233
On-target allowed per possession	0.143	0.078
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.239	0.153
Opponents' inside-box share	68.9%	64.3%
Save rate	63.2%	59.5%
Saves, last 5	4.8	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.03	1.96
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	87.0%	76.6%
Passes, last 5	529	396
Fouls, last 5	8.6	8.8
Cards, last 5	1.4	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	14
Home side won	7
Drawn	5
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	23
Goals, away side	9

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 65.1% · Draw 18.9% · Away 16.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

SC Paderborn 07 v SC Freiburg

bundesliga · 13:30 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	5	2
Position last season	—	7
Points this season	1	3
Goal difference this season	+0	+3
Elo rating going in	1,413	1,599
Matches on record, all seasons	71	511
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	2.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	0.8	1.8
Goals conceded, last 10	2.0	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	3	1
Failed to score, last 10	4	2
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	3	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.8	10.6
Shots on target, last 5	3.4	4.0
Shots per possession	0.301	0.260
On-target shots per possession	0.068	0.090
Inside-box shots per possession	0.168	0.175
Share of shots from inside the box	58.5%	66.7%
Expected goals, last 5	0.76	1.09
Possession, last 5	48.2%	49.8%
Corners, last 5	5.4	2.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.286	0.267
On-target allowed per possession	0.113	0.094
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.196	0.169
Opponents' inside-box share	70.0%	63.7%
Save rate	67.9%	66.2%
Saves, last 5	4.4	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.24	1.58
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.6%	83.0%
Passes, last 5	449	435
Fouls, last 5	10.4	9.8
Cards, last 5	3.2	0.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	2
Drawn	1
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	6
Goals, away side	5

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 26.9% · Draw 25.3% · Away 47.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Werder Bremen v RB Leipzig

bundesliga · 13:30 UK

Finished 3–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	14	2
Position last season	15	3
Points this season	0	3
Goal difference this season	-3	+3
Elo rating going in	1,502	1,681
Matches on record, all seasons	513	341
Recent form
Points, last 5	1	9
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	2.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.9	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	1	3
Failed to score, last 10	3	1
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	4	0
Days since last match	6	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.4
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.6	17.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.0	7.4
Shots per possession	0.240	0.306
On-target shots per possession	0.078	0.136
Inside-box shots per possession	0.149	0.218
Share of shots from inside the box	61.8%	69.6%
Expected goals, last 5	0.86	2.44
Possession, last 5	45.0%	57.6%
Corners, last 5	4.4	5.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.300	0.262
On-target allowed per possession	0.099	0.083
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.194	0.188
Opponents' inside-box share	63.2%	70.3%
Save rate	64.2%	64.5%
Saves, last 5	3.6	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.12	1.54
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	79.6%	86.6%
Passes, last 5	438	534
Fouls, last 5	9.6	8.0
Cards, last 5	1.2	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	18
Home side won	2
Drawn	4
Away side won	12
Goals, home side	17
Goals, away side	36

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 22.7% · Draw 22.4% · Away 54.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Aberdeen v Kilmarnock

scottish-prem · 14:00 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	10	12
Position last season	9	10
Points this season	3	0
Goal difference this season	-5	-10
Elo rating going in	1,472	1,457
Matches on record, all seasons	601	565
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	3
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	3.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.9
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	4	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	3	4
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.6	11.2
Shots on target, last 5	2.4	4.2
Shots per possession	0.219	0.256
On-target shots per possession	0.061	0.104
Inside-box shots per possession	0.139	0.176
Share of shots from inside the box	64.8%	68.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.27	1.19
Possession, last 5	46.2%	44.4%
Corners, last 5	4.2	3.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.268	0.264
On-target allowed per possession	0.093	0.098
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.166	0.187
Opponents' inside-box share	60.2%	69.1%
Save rate	69.1%	68.1%
Saves, last 5	4.6	4.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.79	2.87
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	72.5%	82.8%
Passes, last 5	350	439
Fouls, last 5	11.8	11.6
Cards, last 5	2.6	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	50
Home side won	31
Drawn	8
Away side won	11
Goals, home side	77
Goals, away side	42

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 54.9% · Draw 24.3% · Away 20.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Barnsley v Stevenage

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–5. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	5	20
Position last season	15	6
Points this season	7	3
Goal difference this season	+2	-1
Elo rating going in	1,383	1,409
Matches on record, all seasons	704	284
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	3
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	0.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	3	3
Failed to score, last 10	4	3
Wins in a row	2	0
Unbeaten run	3	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	3	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	2.0	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	0.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.8
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.5	11.7
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	4.0
Shots per possession	0.254	0.231
On-target shots per possession	0.072	0.088
Inside-box shots per possession	0.170	0.167
Share of shots from inside the box	67.4%	71.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.37	0.91
Possession, last 5	56.5%	47.3%
Corners, last 5	7.8	6.7
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.287	0.186
On-target allowed per possession	0.087	0.067
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.205	0.115
Opponents' inside-box share	68.6%	63.1%
Save rate	69.1%	64.7%
Saves, last 5	3.0	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.54	0.90
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	71.3%	69.0%
Passes, last 5	370	339
Fouls, last 5	11.2	12.3
Cards, last 5	1.8	0.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	2
Drawn	0
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	6
Goals, away side	9

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 45.1% · Draw 27.7% · Away 27.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Bradford v Mansfield Town

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	9	12
Position last season	4	10
Points this season	6	6
Goal difference this season	+0	-2
Elo rating going in	1,396	1,419
Matches on record, all seasons	333	96
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	9
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	2.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	2.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	2.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	3	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	2	1
Days since last match	4	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.0	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	7.3	13.5
Shots on target, last 5	2.0	6.2
Shots per possession	0.187	0.314
On-target shots per possession	0.046	0.125
Inside-box shots per possession	0.126	0.201
Share of shots from inside the box	68.8%	62.6%
Expected goals, last 5	0.64	1.56
Possession, last 5	52.0%	38.2%
Corners, last 5	7.7	3.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.249	0.253
On-target allowed per possession	0.060	0.073
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.161	0.167
Opponents' inside-box share	65.2%	65.7%
Save rate	63.5%	61.1%
Saves, last 5	1.7	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.94	1.81
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	65.3%	71.7%
Passes, last 5	343	300
Fouls, last 5	11.7	15.2
Cards, last 5	0.8	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	0
Drawn	1
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	1
Goals, away side	4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 53.1% · Draw 25.5% · Away 21.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Brentford v Sunderland

premier-league · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	11
Position last season	9	7
Points this season	4	3
Goal difference this season	+3	+0
Elo rating going in	1,742	1,677
Matches on record, all seasons	663	677
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	4	3
Failed to score, last 10	3	2
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	4	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	6	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.4	13.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	4.2
Shots per possession	0.289	0.271
On-target shots per possession	0.084	0.090
Inside-box shots per possession	0.216	0.183
Share of shots from inside the box	72.4%	66.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.81	1.27
Possession, last 5	46.6%	50.2%
Corners, last 5	5.2	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.290	0.239
On-target allowed per possession	0.097	0.086
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.174	0.154
Opponents' inside-box share	58.9%	63.3%
Save rate	72.4%	67.2%
Saves, last 5	4.4	1.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.93	1.02
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	79.2%	84.4%
Passes, last 5	378	446
Fouls, last 5	12.0	12.0
Cards, last 5	2.2	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	2
Drawn	1
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	9
Goals, away side	5

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 57.7% · Draw 24.2% · Away 18.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Brighton v Leeds

premier-league · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	8	7
Position last season	8	14
Points this season	3	4
Goal difference this season	+3	+1
Elo rating going in	1,744	1,731
Matches on record, all seasons	626	665
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	8
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	2.0	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	0.9
Clean sheets, last 10	4	4
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	2
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	6	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.4	11.0
Shots on target, last 5	5.6	2.6
Shots per possession	0.247	0.270
On-target shots per possession	0.096	0.083
Inside-box shots per possession	0.186	0.173
Share of shots from inside the box	75.9%	63.3%
Expected goals, last 5	2.14	1.05
Possession, last 5	67.4%	45.4%
Corners, last 5	5.4	4.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.276	0.272
On-target allowed per possession	0.097	0.095
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.205	0.204
Opponents' inside-box share	69.1%	74.1%
Save rate	66.1%	71.0%
Saves, last 5	1.6	4.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.16	1.83
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	87.6%	73.8%
Passes, last 5	577	352
Fouls, last 5	10.2	9.8
Cards, last 5	1.2	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	20
Home side won	12
Drawn	5
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	33
Goals, away side	16

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 47.7% · Draw 26.9% · Away 25.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Burnley v Bristol City

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	23	5
Position last season	19	12
Points this season	2	7
Goal difference this season	-5	+1
Elo rating going in	1,568	1,518
Matches on record, all seasons	622	696
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	2.2	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	0	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	1	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	3	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.4	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.4
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.2	11.0
Shots on target, last 5	5.0	3.5
Shots per possession	0.242	0.221
On-target shots per possession	0.075	0.084
Inside-box shots per possession	0.129	0.130
Share of shots from inside the box	55.0%	56.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.30	1.13
Possession, last 5	57.0%	40.2%
Corners, last 5	5.8	3.5
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.332	0.271
On-target allowed per possession	0.112	0.076
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.222	0.179
Opponents' inside-box share	69.9%	66.9%
Save rate	63.8%	72.6%
Saves, last 5	2.5	1.5
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.71	1.85
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	85.8%	69.2%
Passes, last 5	495	311
Fouls, last 5	10.0	10.5
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	8
Drawn	1
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	21
Goals, away side	11

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 48.8% · Draw 25.8% · Away 25.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Burton Albion v Cambridge United

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	4
Position last season	17	—
Points this season	7	7
Goal difference this season	+3	+1
Elo rating going in	1,375	1,317
Matches on record, all seasons	499	188
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	7
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	2	1
Failed to score, last 10	1	1
Wins in a row	1	1
Unbeaten run	1	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	3	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.8	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.8	10.3
Shots on target, last 5	5.0	4.7
Shots per possession	0.277	0.249
On-target shots per possession	0.105	0.091
Inside-box shots per possession	0.173	0.172
Share of shots from inside the box	62.5%	67.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.25	0.85
Possession, last 5	36.8%	47.0%
Corners, last 5	2.2	4.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.217	0.179
On-target allowed per possession	0.060	0.078
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.147	0.108
Opponents' inside-box share	66.7%	61.3%
Save rate	70.0%	65.4%
Saves, last 5	3.0	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.58	0.87
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	66.7%	68.7%
Passes, last 5	311	373
Fouls, last 5	14.8	11.3
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	3
Drawn	2
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	10
Goals, away side	12

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 34.9% · Draw 28.1% · Away 37.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Doncaster v Plymouth

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 2–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	20	14
Position last season	14	8
Points this season	3	4
Goal difference this season	-1	-2
Elo rating going in	1,363	1,460
Matches on record, all seasons	500	372
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	1.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	3	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	4	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.8	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.4
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.3	17.3
Shots on target, last 5	6.7	5.3
Shots per possession	0.271	0.413
On-target shots per possession	0.114	0.148
Inside-box shots per possession	0.191	0.281
Share of shots from inside the box	68.6%	67.2%
Expected goals, last 5	2.24	2.26
Possession, last 5	46.7%	43.0%
Corners, last 5	5.7	7.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.251	0.176
On-target allowed per possession	0.083	0.052
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.176	0.104
Opponents' inside-box share	68.4%	64.5%
Save rate	69.4%	65.2%
Saves, last 5	3.0	1.7
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.98	1.04
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	67.7%	61.0%
Passes, last 5	313	255
Fouls, last 5	13.0	14.3
Cards, last 5	1.4	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	4
Drawn	1
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	16
Goals, away side	18

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 37.6% · Draw 26.5% · Away 35.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Dundee Utd v Falkirk

scottish-prem · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	9	11
Position last season	7	6
Points this season	4	1
Goal difference this season	-5	-4
Elo rating going in	1,497	1,511
Matches on record, all seasons	421	42
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	1
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	2.6
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	6	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	2
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.0	9.0
Shots on target, last 5	3.4	2.2
Shots per possession	0.258	0.194
On-target shots per possession	0.070	0.051
Inside-box shots per possession	0.168	0.122
Share of shots from inside the box	62.9%	62.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.69	0.98
Possession, last 5	52.0%	48.4%
Corners, last 5	4.2	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.320	0.293
On-target allowed per possession	0.122	0.109
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.212	0.198
Opponents' inside-box share	66.5%	66.5%
Save rate	68.8%	59.0%
Saves, last 5	4.2	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.55	2.02
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	79.8%	81.5%
Passes, last 5	401	419
Fouls, last 5	11.2	14.2
Cards, last 5	2.2	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	3
Home side won	1
Drawn	1
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	5
Goals, away side	7

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 48.5% · Draw 25.7% · Away 25.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Erzurumspor FK v Konyaspor

super-lig · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	16	18
Position last season	—	9
Points this season	1	0
Goal difference this season	-7	-4
Elo rating going in	1,499	1,563
Matches on record, all seasons	77	463
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	0
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	2.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	2.0	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	6
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.6	11.8
Shots on target, last 5	3.4	3.0
Shots per possession	0.263	0.250
On-target shots per possession	0.088	0.089
Inside-box shots per possession	0.142	0.165
Share of shots from inside the box	54.2%	67.2%
Expected goals, last 5	0.59	0.88
Possession, last 5	49.6%	46.2%
Corners, last 5	3.2	2.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.264	0.292
On-target allowed per possession	0.094	0.120
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.182	0.174
Opponents' inside-box share	69.8%	58.8%
Save rate	61.5%	70.6%
Saves, last 5	2.2	6.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.50	1.81
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	83.2%	83.4%
Passes, last 5	442	380
Fouls, last 5	10.6	13.0
Cards, last 5	1.2	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	0
Drawn	0
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	4
Goals, away side	9

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 40.5% · Draw 28.6% · Away 31.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Fulham v Crystal Palace

premier-league · 14:00 UK

Finished 2–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	15	20
Position last season	11	15
Points this season	0	0
Goal difference this season	-2	-5
Elo rating going in	1,694	1,685
Matches on record, all seasons	666	591
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	1
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	2.6
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	0.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	2.2
Clean sheets, last 10	3	1
Failed to score, last 10	5	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	2	3
Days since last match	6	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	0.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.2	10.0
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	3.0
Shots per possession	0.283	0.254
On-target shots per possession	0.071	0.082
Inside-box shots per possession	0.172	0.193
Share of shots from inside the box	60.8%	77.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.37	1.21
Possession, last 5	58.6%	39.0%
Corners, last 5	6.6	2.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.279	0.248
On-target allowed per possession	0.098	0.091
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.198	0.178
Opponents' inside-box share	69.3%	71.8%
Save rate	69.8%	59.0%
Saves, last 5	2.6	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.20	1.70
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	85.6%	78.6%
Passes, last 5	541	361
Fouls, last 5	12.0	8.8
Cards, last 5	2.2	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	14
Home side won	3
Drawn	6
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	17
Goals, away side	17

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 40.9% · Draw 29.3% · Away 29.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Huddersfield v Notts County

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	8
Position last season	9	—
Points this season	10	6
Goal difference this season	+6	+1
Elo rating going in	1,434	1,406
Matches on record, all seasons	686	188
Recent form
Points, last 5	13	6
Goals scored, last 5	2.6	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	0.6	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	2.3	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	2	0
Failed to score, last 10	0	1
Wins in a row	2	0
Unbeaten run	5	4
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	4	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.2	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.8	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.8
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.0	13.0
Shots on target, last 5	6.7	6.0
Shots per possession	0.334	—
On-target shots per possession	0.118	—
Inside-box shots per possession	0.238	—
Share of shots from inside the box	68.2%	—
Expected goals, last 5	2.19	1.54
Possession, last 5	53.0%	51.0%
Corners, last 5	3.3	5.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.216	—
On-target allowed per possession	0.062	—
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.129	—
Opponents' inside-box share	59.0%	—
Save rate	58.0%	—
Saves, last 5	1.7	1.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.85	1.02
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	78.3%	75.5%
Passes, last 5	427	398
Fouls, last 5	11.7	15.5
Cards, last 5	0.6	0.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	1
Drawn	1
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	4
Goals, away side	3

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 57.2% · Draw 23.1% · Away 19.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Leicester v Oxford United

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 0–4. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	10	13
Position last season	21	23
Points this season	5	4
Goal difference this season	+1	-1
Elo rating going in	1,473	1,452
Matches on record, all seasons	616	460
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	0.6	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	0.9	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	3	1
Failed to score, last 10	3	3
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	4	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.2	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.8
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	19.7	12.3
Shots on target, last 5	6.3	5.3
Shots per possession	0.309	0.328
On-target shots per possession	0.099	0.095
Inside-box shots per possession	0.176	0.196
Share of shots from inside the box	53.5%	60.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.72	1.54
Possession, last 5	66.7%	46.3%
Corners, last 5	8.3	4.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.292	0.222
On-target allowed per possession	0.074	0.064
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.191	0.151
Opponents' inside-box share	67.7%	67.0%
Save rate	65.9%	64.7%
Saves, last 5	2.7	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.89	1.37
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	86.0%	73.3%
Passes, last 5	559	342
Fouls, last 5	8.3	14.0
Cards, last 5	1.2	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	0
Drawn	1
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	3
Goals, away side	4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 57.1% · Draw 22.3% · Away 20.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Luton v Leyton Orient

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	7	6
Position last season	7	20
Points this season	7	6
Goal difference this season	+0	+4
Elo rating going in	1,483	1,367
Matches on record, all seasons	369	332
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	7
Goals scored, last 5	2.6	2.2
Goals conceded, last 5	2.4	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	2.4	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	3	3
Failed to score, last 10	0	3
Wins in a row	1	1
Unbeaten run	1	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	3	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.0	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.0	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	0.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.0	9.7
Shots on target, last 5	4.5	3.3
Shots per possession	0.285	0.187
On-target shots per possession	0.096	0.051
Inside-box shots per possession	0.210	0.112
Share of shots from inside the box	73.5%	58.6%
Expected goals, last 5	2.27	1.00
Possession, last 5	49.5%	46.7%
Corners, last 5	5.0	4.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.306	0.306
On-target allowed per possession	0.092	0.114
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.194	0.206
Opponents' inside-box share	61.4%	67.6%
Save rate	64.3%	73.7%
Saves, last 5	3.8	4.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.64	2.09
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	79.3%	65.7%
Passes, last 5	396	297
Fouls, last 5	13.0	13.7
Cards, last 5	2.2	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	1
Drawn	1
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	4
Goals, away side	1

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 56.7% · Draw 23.1% · Away 20.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Manchester City v Coventry

premier-league · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	18
Position last season	2	1
Points this season	6	0
Goal difference this season	+4	-4
Elo rating going in	1,913	1,624
Matches on record, all seasons	610	639
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	9
Goals scored, last 5	2.2	2.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	2.3	1.9
Goals conceded, last 10	0.9	0.9
Clean sheets, last 10	4	4
Failed to score, last 10	0	4
Wins in a row	2	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	2
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	2.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.2	12.6
Shots on target, last 5	5.4	4.6
Shots per possession	0.289	0.218
On-target shots per possession	0.099	0.076
Inside-box shots per possession	0.201	0.154
Share of shots from inside the box	70.6%	68.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.66	1.56
Possession, last 5	63.6%	58.6%
Corners, last 5	7.6	4.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.262	0.239
On-target allowed per possession	0.085	0.065
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.188	0.162
Opponents' inside-box share	71.7%	65.1%
Save rate	70.8%	61.8%
Saves, last 5	2.2	1.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.19	1.11
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	89.4%	84.2%
Passes, last 5	636	495
Fouls, last 5	9.2	8.8
Cards, last 5	1.2	1.0

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 83.8% · Draw 10.3% · Away 5.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Millwall v Bolton

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 4–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	11	15
Position last season	3	5
Points this season	6	4
Goal difference this season	-2	-1
Elo rating going in	1,586	1,479
Matches on record, all seasons	702	674
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	5	3
Failed to score, last 10	3	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	2	2
Days since last match	3	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.0	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	0.8
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.8	13.8
Shots on target, last 5	5.0	5.2
Shots per possession	0.296	0.280
On-target shots per possession	0.088	0.088
Inside-box shots per possession	0.206	0.163
Share of shots from inside the box	70.0%	63.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.89	1.31
Possession, last 5	58.2%	56.8%
Corners, last 5	7.8	6.5
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.232	0.211
On-target allowed per possession	0.068	0.072
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.134	0.155
Opponents' inside-box share	53.3%	71.1%
Save rate	66.7%	67.4%
Saves, last 5	2.0	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.74	1.12
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	79.5%	79.2%
Passes, last 5	424	436
Fouls, last 5	11.5	8.5
Cards, last 5	1.0	0.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	12
Home side won	2
Drawn	4
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	10
Goals, away side	17

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 47.9% · Draw 28.8% · Away 23.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Nottingham Forest v Tottenham

premier-league · 14:00 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	12	19
Position last season	16	17
Points this season	1	0
Goal difference this season	-1	-5
Elo rating going in	1,701	1,634
Matches on record, all seasons	663	610
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	2.2	0.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	2
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	3.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.4	14.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	3.6
Shots per possession	0.273	0.243
On-target shots per possession	0.108	0.078
Inside-box shots per possession	0.201	0.169
Share of shots from inside the box	74.8%	68.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.53	1.13
Possession, last 5	45.6%	56.0%
Corners, last 5	4.4	7.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.270	0.255
On-target allowed per possession	0.081	0.078
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.153	0.167
Opponents' inside-box share	56.6%	63.1%
Save rate	74.9%	60.5%
Saves, last 5	3.4	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.82	1.42
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	78.0%	85.8%
Passes, last 5	392	473
Fouls, last 5	11.4	14.8
Cards, last 5	1.6	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	4
Drawn	0
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	11
Goals, away side	11

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 40.3% · Draw 27.0% · Away 32.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Portsmouth v Cardiff

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	20	19
Position last season	18	2
Points this season	3	3
Goal difference this season	-3	-1
Elo rating going in	1,479	1,498
Matches on record, all seasons	503	682
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	3
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	2.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	2.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	0
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	2	1
Days since last match	4	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.2	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	2.2
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	2.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.2	19.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	6.8
Shots per possession	0.216	0.280
On-target shots per possession	0.067	0.100
Inside-box shots per possession	0.127	0.175
Share of shots from inside the box	56.7%	61.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.32	1.95
Possession, last 5	55.2%	67.0%
Corners, last 5	5.8	9.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.261	0.364
On-target allowed per possession	0.086	0.176
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.188	0.246
Opponents' inside-box share	71.6%	67.1%
Save rate	70.0%	68.6%
Saves, last 5	3.0	4.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.65	1.67
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	75.2%	86.5%
Passes, last 5	356	531
Fouls, last 5	12.0	9.5
Cards, last 5	0.6	0.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	1
Drawn	1
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	5
Goals, away side	7

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 40.2% · Draw 26.5% · Away 33.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

QPR v Middlesbrough

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	6
Position last season	15	5
Points this season	10	7
Goal difference this season	+4	+2
Elo rating going in	1,502	1,560
Matches on record, all seasons	673	696
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	4	2
Wins in a row	2	0
Unbeaten run	4	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.2	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.5	18.0
Shots on target, last 5	6.2	4.0
Shots per possession	0.294	0.308
On-target shots per possession	0.111	0.082
Inside-box shots per possession	0.186	0.201
Share of shots from inside the box	63.0%	65.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.53	1.71
Possession, last 5	48.5%	65.8%
Corners, last 5	4.2	6.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.231	0.283
On-target allowed per possession	0.090	0.086
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.138	0.181
Opponents' inside-box share	63.5%	65.0%
Save rate	66.7%	60.9%
Saves, last 5	2.5	1.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.42	0.92
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.2%	88.8%
Passes, last 5	423	599
Fouls, last 5	10.0	9.8
Cards, last 5	1.0	0.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	22
Home side won	8
Drawn	3
Away side won	11
Goals, home side	31
Goals, away side	42

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 30.2% · Draw 26.2% · Away 43.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Rangers v Motherwell

scottish-prem · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	5	3
Position last season	3	4
Points this season	7	8
Goal difference this season	+1	+4
Elo rating going in	1,710	1,598
Matches on record, all seasons	446	601
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	11
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	2.1	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.9	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	1	3
Failed to score, last 10	0	2
Wins in a row	2	1
Unbeaten run	2	5
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	19.0	16.2
Shots on target, last 5	6.8	5.4
Shots per possession	0.307	0.262
On-target shots per possession	0.111	0.083
Inside-box shots per possession	0.213	0.175
Share of shots from inside the box	70.2%	65.8%
Expected goals, last 5	2.00	1.53
Possession, last 5	57.8%	55.2%
Corners, last 5	6.6	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.227	0.283
On-target allowed per possession	0.087	0.087
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.159	0.183
Opponents' inside-box share	68.9%	61.5%
Save rate	58.4%	59.2%
Saves, last 5	2.2	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.51	1.33
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	83.2%	86.8%
Passes, last 5	433	547
Fouls, last 5	13.4	12.6
Cards, last 5	1.6	2.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	39
Home side won	26
Drawn	10
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	99
Goals, away side	36

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 65.1% · Draw 20.2% · Away 14.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Reading v Blackpool

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 3–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	14	3
Position last season	12	13
Points this season	4	7
Goal difference this season	+4	+4
Elo rating going in	1,410	1,428
Matches on record, all seasons	688	681
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	0.6
Clean sheets, last 10	3	5
Failed to score, last 10	3	1
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.0	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	2.0	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	0.8
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.0	14.0
Shots on target, last 5	3.2	5.8
Shots per possession	0.221	0.343
On-target shots per possession	0.067	0.131
Inside-box shots per possession	0.160	0.247
Share of shots from inside the box	72.9%	70.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.11	1.80
Possession, last 5	57.2%	36.5%
Corners, last 5	4.2	4.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.216	0.241
On-target allowed per possession	0.092	0.066
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.131	0.144
Opponents' inside-box share	64.2%	57.8%
Save rate	70.6%	79.1%
Saves, last 5	3.0	4.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.97	2.05
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	78.7%	71.0%
Passes, last 5	421	297
Fouls, last 5	11.5	9.0
Cards, last 5	1.2	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	16
Home side won	6
Drawn	1
Away side won	9
Goals, home side	25
Goals, away side	27

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 48.0% · Draw 25.1% · Away 26.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Sheffield Utd v Norwich

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	8	19
Position last season	13	9
Points this season	6	3
Goal difference this season	+1	-2
Elo rating going in	1,534	1,518
Matches on record, all seasons	681	651
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	3
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	3	0
Failed to score, last 10	3	3
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	5	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	4	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.8	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.8
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.0	15.0
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	4.2
Shots per possession	0.248	0.292
On-target shots per possession	0.091	0.104
Inside-box shots per possession	0.171	0.187
Share of shots from inside the box	71.6%	63.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.37	1.68
Possession, last 5	39.5%	51.0%
Corners, last 5	2.8	5.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.290	0.235
On-target allowed per possession	0.096	0.111
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.195	0.181
Opponents' inside-box share	67.2%	76.0%
Save rate	66.7%	63.6%
Saves, last 5	3.8	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.42	1.71
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	67.2%	79.8%
Passes, last 5	298	406
Fouls, last 5	11.5	12.2
Cards, last 5	1.4	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	12
Home side won	6
Drawn	4
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	17
Goals, away side	12

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 36.7% · Draw 27.1% · Away 36.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

West Brom v Watford

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	6	14
Position last season	19	16
Points this season	7	5
Goal difference this season	+1	-1
Elo rating going in	1,503	1,473
Matches on record, all seasons	672	649
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	0.6
Goals conceded, last 10	0.8	2.2
Clean sheets, last 10	5	0
Failed to score, last 10	3	5
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	3	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.4	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	0.4
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	2.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.0	13.5
Shots on target, last 5	5.0	4.5
Shots per possession	0.207	0.312
On-target shots per possession	0.083	0.096
Inside-box shots per possession	0.152	0.203
Share of shots from inside the box	72.5%	63.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.59	1.08
Possession, last 5	53.0%	39.0%
Corners, last 5	3.2	2.5
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.259	0.295
On-target allowed per possession	0.075	0.098
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.194	0.173
Opponents' inside-box share	73.8%	59.8%
Save rate	79.8%	59.8%
Saves, last 5	4.2	1.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.90	1.34
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	85.5%	78.2%
Passes, last 5	524	324
Fouls, last 5	8.8	12.0
Cards, last 5	1.2	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	14
Home side won	3
Drawn	5
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	19
Goals, away side	20

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 50.5% · Draw 26.2% · Away 23.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

West Ham v Derby

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 3–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	11	16
Position last season	18	8
Points this season	5	4
Goal difference this season	+1	-2
Elo rating going in	1,652	1,515
Matches on record, all seasons	623	704
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	4
Goals scored, last 5	2.2	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	3	1
Wins in a row	1	1
Unbeaten run	2	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	4	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.0	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.2	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.2	13.8
Shots on target, last 5	5.2	4.2
Shots per possession	0.263	0.283
On-target shots per possession	0.097	0.091
Inside-box shots per possession	0.191	0.209
Share of shots from inside the box	72.6%	72.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.88	1.33
Possession, last 5	59.0%	47.2%
Corners, last 5	7.5	5.5
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.277	0.299
On-target allowed per possession	0.098	0.111
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.178	0.188
Opponents' inside-box share	64.0%	64.3%
Save rate	61.5%	72.5%
Saves, last 5	2.8	5.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.39	2.06
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.8%	76.0%
Passes, last 5	484	380
Fouls, last 5	9.0	14.0
Cards, last 5	1.4	3.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	1
Drawn	0
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	4
Goals, away side	3

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 67.5% · Draw 19.3% · Away 13.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Wycombe v Milton Keynes Dons

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 3–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	22	21
Position last season	11	—
Points this season	2	3
Goal difference this season	-5	-2
Elo rating going in	1,400	1,376
Matches on record, all seasons	414	503
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	2.4	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	0	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	2	1
Days since last match	4	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.6	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	0.8
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.4
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.7	17.8
Shots on target, last 5	6.3	3.5
Shots per possession	0.242	0.297
On-target shots per possession	0.096	0.077
Inside-box shots per possession	0.173	0.218
Share of shots from inside the box	72.3%	72.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.93	0.95
Possession, last 5	51.3%	47.5%
Corners, last 5	8.0	6.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.296	0.327
On-target allowed per possession	0.118	0.114
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.176	0.202
Opponents' inside-box share	59.3%	60.5%
Save rate	57.8%	70.8%
Saves, last 5	2.0	4.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.94	2.05
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	78.0%	72.7%
Passes, last 5	388	348
Fouls, last 5	10.7	9.0
Cards, last 5	0.4	0.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	3
Drawn	2
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	12
Goals, away side	14

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 41.5% · Draw 26.0% · Away 32.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Athletic Club v Atletico Madrid

la-liga · 14:15 UK

Finished 3–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	12	1
Position last season	12	4
Points this season	3	7
Goal difference this season	-2	+4
Elo rating going in	1,614	1,739
Matches on record, all seasons	611	611
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.8	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	3	1
Wins in a row	1	1
Unbeaten run	1	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	6	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	2.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	2.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.8	14.4
Shots on target, last 5	5.2	4.6
Shots per possession	0.275	0.262
On-target shots per possession	0.091	0.089
Inside-box shots per possession	0.195	0.161
Share of shots from inside the box	69.8%	65.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.48	1.12
Possession, last 5	44.8%	52.4%
Corners, last 5	5.4	6.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.163	0.278
On-target allowed per possession	0.079	0.092
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.111	0.184
Opponents' inside-box share	66.4%	65.8%
Save rate	64.1%	69.7%
Saves, last 5	3.4	4.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.38	1.87
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	79.0%	86.8%
Passes, last 5	407	505
Fouls, last 5	13.6	12.8
Cards, last 5	2.0	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	8
Drawn	4
Away side won	20
Goals, home side	33
Goals, away side	47

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 30.9% · Draw 27.7% · Away 41.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Sporting Gijon v Girona

laliga-2 · 14:15 UK

Finished 0–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	6
Position last season	9	19
Points this season	7	4
Goal difference this season	+2	+2
Elo rating going in	1,477	1,566
Matches on record, all seasons	537	411
Recent form
Points, last 5	13	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	0.4	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	4	0
Failed to score, last 10	1	2
Wins in a row	2	1
Unbeaten run	6	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	8.8	17.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.2	7.2
Shots per possession	0.210	0.283
On-target shots per possession	0.097	0.103
Inside-box shots per possession	0.154	0.179
Share of shots from inside the box	68.0%	64.9%
Expected goals, last 5	0.38	1.38
Possession, last 5	45.2%	55.2%
Corners, last 5	3.0	5.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.261	0.208
On-target allowed per possession	0.068	0.076
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.154	0.138
Opponents' inside-box share	57.8%	68.1%
Save rate	75.7%	58.7%
Saves, last 5	3.0	1.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.14	1.07
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	79.0%	87.8%
Passes, last 5	386	485
Fouls, last 5	12.4	12.4
Cards, last 5	2.4	2.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	3
Drawn	2
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	7
Goals, away side	4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 32.2% · Draw 28.7% · Away 39.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Estrela v Famalicao

primeira-liga · 14:30 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	7	13
Position last season	15	5
Points this season	5	2
Goal difference this season	+1	-2
Elo rating going in	1,513	1,629
Matches on record, all seasons	107	242
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	0.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	0.9
Clean sheets, last 10	1	4
Failed to score, last 10	4	3
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	5	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	6	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	8.6	9.4
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	2.4
Shots per possession	0.233	0.193
On-target shots per possession	0.083	0.070
Inside-box shots per possession	0.153	0.117
Share of shots from inside the box	66.2%	59.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.08	0.77
Possession, last 5	42.4%	58.2%
Corners, last 5	2.4	6.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.231	0.187
On-target allowed per possession	0.077	0.050
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.132	0.126
Opponents' inside-box share	55.9%	65.6%
Save rate	63.0%	63.5%
Saves, last 5	3.4	1.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.92	0.94
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	78.6%	86.6%
Passes, last 5	337	504
Fouls, last 5	11.8	11.8
Cards, last 5	3.2	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	2
Drawn	3
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	4
Goals, away side	5

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 32.5% · Draw 31.0% · Away 36.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

NEC Nijmegen v Feyenoord

eredivisie · 14:30 UK

Finished 1–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	6	3
Position last season	3	2
Points this season	6	8
Goal difference this season	+4	+4
Elo rating going in	1,624	1,731
Matches on record, all seasons	384	543
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	11
Goals scored, last 5	2.2	2.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.8	1.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	1	3
Failed to score, last 10	0	1
Wins in a row	2	0
Unbeaten run	2	13
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	21.2	23.8
Shots on target, last 5	6.6	7.8
Shots per possession	0.333	0.352
On-target shots per possession	0.112	0.121
Inside-box shots per possession	0.210	0.235
Share of shots from inside the box	63.3%	67.5%
Expected goals, last 5	2.48	2.91
Possession, last 5	59.0%	57.2%
Corners, last 5	8.2	8.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.238	0.229
On-target allowed per possession	0.101	0.064
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.175	0.160
Opponents' inside-box share	75.6%	69.1%
Save rate	70.4%	69.4%
Saves, last 5	1.8	1.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.35	0.93
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	79.2%	87.2%
Passes, last 5	447	504
Fouls, last 5	12.4	8.0
Cards, last 5	1.4	0.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	22
Home side won	4
Drawn	7
Away side won	11
Goals, home side	29
Goals, away side	48

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 34.3% · Draw 23.4% · Away 42.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Lens v Lorient

ligue-1 · 15:15 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	15
Position last season	2	10
Points this season	3	1
Goal difference this season	+2	-1
Elo rating going in	1,684	1,535
Matches on record, all seasons	294	450
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	5
Goals scored, last 5	2.2	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	2.3	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	1
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.4	10.6
Shots on target, last 5	7.0	4.0
Shots per possession	0.355	0.227
On-target shots per possession	0.128	0.089
Inside-box shots per possession	0.240	0.142
Share of shots from inside the box	67.9%	60.1%
Expected goals, last 5	2.51	1.24
Possession, last 5	49.6%	48.2%
Corners, last 5	6.4	3.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.258	0.227
On-target allowed per possession	0.088	0.071
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.181	0.158
Opponents' inside-box share	70.6%	69.0%
Save rate	62.8%	69.1%
Saves, last 5	3.0	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.57	1.37
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	83.2%	85.6%
Passes, last 5	431	441
Fouls, last 5	10.4	8.2
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	14
Home side won	6
Drawn	3
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	25
Goals, away side	19

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 65.0% · Draw 20.4% · Away 14.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Inter v Napoli

serie-a · 16:00 UK

Finished 3–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	9
Position last season	1	2
Points this season	6	3
Goal difference this season	+4	+1
Elo rating going in	1,860	1,762
Matches on record, all seasons	610	610
Recent form
Points, last 5	11	9
Goals scored, last 5	2.4	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	2.8	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	0.8
Clean sheets, last 10	4	6
Failed to score, last 10	0	2
Wins in a row	2	0
Unbeaten run	12	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	6	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	2.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.0	11.2
Shots on target, last 5	5.6	3.8
Shots per possession	0.255	0.229
On-target shots per possession	0.098	0.064
Inside-box shots per possession	0.193	0.146
Share of shots from inside the box	75.7%	60.4%
Expected goals, last 5	2.11	1.02
Possession, last 5	64.6%	57.0%
Corners, last 5	4.8	4.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.283	0.234
On-target allowed per possession	0.076	0.089
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.171	0.151
Opponents' inside-box share	61.2%	63.7%
Save rate	65.4%	72.6%
Saves, last 5	2.2	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.95	0.81
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	90.0%	89.4%
Passes, last 5	634	544
Fouls, last 5	8.2	7.4
Cards, last 5	1.2	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	10
Drawn	12
Away side won	10
Goals, home side	40
Goals, away side	44

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 56.3% · Draw 25.5% · Away 18.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

FC Schalke 04 v Bayern München

bundesliga · 16:30 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	15	1
Position last season	—	1
Points this season	0	3
Goal difference this season	-3	+4
Elo rating going in	1,440	1,865
Matches on record, all seasons	409	545
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	13
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	3.6
Goals conceded, last 5	3.4	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	3.5
Goals conceded, last 10	2.9	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	0	3
Failed to score, last 10	5	0
Wins in a row	0	3
Unbeaten run	0	16
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	6	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	4.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	3.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.2	18.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.6	7.6
Shots per possession	0.254	0.293
On-target shots per possession	0.097	0.114
Inside-box shots per possession	0.155	0.197
Share of shots from inside the box	60.3%	68.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.48	2.67
Possession, last 5	46.4%	68.4%
Corners, last 5	5.0	6.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.328	0.396
On-target allowed per possession	0.150	0.145
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.234	0.273
Opponents' inside-box share	71.9%	65.9%
Save rate	62.2%	70.7%
Saves, last 5	5.2	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.91	2.03
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	71.8%	88.2%
Passes, last 5	364	667
Fouls, last 5	9.6	7.4
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	24
Home side won	1
Drawn	3
Away side won	20
Goals, home side	10
Goals, away side	72

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 6.8% · Draw 10.1% · Away 83.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Hull City v Aston Villa

premier-league · 16:30 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	18
Position last season	6	4
Points this season	6	0
Goal difference this season	+3	-5
Elo rating going in	1,582	1,779
Matches on record, all seasons	674	640
Recent form
Points, last 5	13	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	0.0	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	0.8	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	5	1
Failed to score, last 10	1	3
Wins in a row	4	0
Unbeaten run	6	0
Losses in a row	0	2
Days since last match	7	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	8.4	11.4
Shots on target, last 5	3.2	4.2
Shots per possession	0.290	0.241
On-target shots per possession	0.102	0.079
Inside-box shots per possession	0.185	0.138
Share of shots from inside the box	63.9%	55.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.05	1.15
Possession, last 5	32.6%	44.8%
Corners, last 5	2.4	4.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.233	0.274
On-target allowed per possession	0.070	0.095
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.133	0.170
Opponents' inside-box share	58.6%	65.0%
Save rate	72.8%	67.2%
Saves, last 5	2.8	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.07	1.88
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	65.6%	83.2%
Passes, last 5	259	381
Fouls, last 5	7.8	10.0
Cards, last 5	2.2	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	1
Drawn	4
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	8
Goals, away side	11

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 23.0% · Draw 26.4% · Away 50.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Rayo Vallecano v Racing Santander

la-liga · 16:30 UK

Finished 3–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	18	8
Position last season	8	1
Points this season	1	4
Goal difference this season	-4	+0
Elo rating going in	1,616	1,560
Matches on record, all seasons	593	291
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	8
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	2.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	3	1
Failed to score, last 10	0	2
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	5	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	3.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.0	15.6
Shots on target, last 5	5.0	5.6
Shots per possession	0.261	0.311
On-target shots per possession	0.111	0.138
Inside-box shots per possession	0.153	0.208
Share of shots from inside the box	61.7%	68.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.26	1.86
Possession, last 5	46.8%	47.8%
Corners, last 5	4.4	5.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.282	0.256
On-target allowed per possession	0.103	0.073
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.184	0.166
Opponents' inside-box share	65.3%	67.3%
Save rate	71.4%	66.1%
Saves, last 5	4.0	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.91	1.07
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	78.8%	83.2%
Passes, last 5	354	428
Fouls, last 5	13.6	14.6
Cards, last 5	2.2	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	3
Drawn	1
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	9
Goals, away side	4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 42.8% · Draw 28.0% · Away 29.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Valladolid v FC Andorra

laliga-2 · 16:30 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	19	12
Position last season	16	13
Points this season	1	3
Goal difference this season	-3	+1
Elo rating going in	1,374	1,434
Matches on record, all seasons	483	129
Recent form
Points, last 5	1	3
Goals scored, last 5	0.2	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	0.6	1.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	5	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	2
Days since last match	6	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	0.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.6	18.8
Shots on target, last 5	3.4	5.2
Shots per possession	0.194	0.265
On-target shots per possession	0.049	0.089
Inside-box shots per possession	0.122	0.163
Share of shots from inside the box	65.2%	60.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.18	—
Possession, last 5	55.4%	64.6%
Corners, last 5	4.4	3.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.238	0.233
On-target allowed per possession	0.084	0.102
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.145	0.151
Opponents' inside-box share	61.0%	62.6%
Save rate	65.0%	67.3%
Saves, last 5	2.4	1.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	3.29	—
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	85.2%	87.0%
Passes, last 5	491	544
Fouls, last 5	12.4	15.4
Cards, last 5	4.0	3.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	1
Drawn	0
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	3
Goals, away side	4

Alverca v SC Braga

primeira-liga · 17:00 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	13	9
Position last season	11	4
Points this season	2	4
Goal difference this season	-4	+1
Elo rating going in	1,568	1,738
Matches on record, all seasons	38	530
Recent form
Points, last 5	2	7
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	0	4
Failed to score, last 10	4	0
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	1	5
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.8	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.2	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	8.8	10.0
Shots on target, last 5	2.4	3.4
Shots per possession	0.192	0.142
On-target shots per possession	0.065	0.056
Inside-box shots per possession	0.116	0.084
Share of shots from inside the box	59.0%	55.2%
Expected goals, last 5	0.86	0.96
Possession, last 5	44.6%	58.0%
Corners, last 5	5.2	3.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.216	0.260
On-target allowed per possession	0.073	0.080
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.127	0.129
Opponents' inside-box share	56.9%	47.0%
Save rate	66.7%	66.0%
Saves, last 5	2.2	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.22	1.05
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.4%	84.0%
Passes, last 5	318	546
Fouls, last 5	10.2	14.0
Cards, last 5	2.4	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	0
Drawn	0
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	0
Goals, away side	8

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 19.9% · Draw 26.1% · Away 54.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Fenerbahçe v Beşiktaş

super-lig · 17:00 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	3
Position last season	2	4
Points this season	6	6
Goal difference this season	+3	+4
Elo rating going in	1,852	1,710
Matches on record, all seasons	537	537
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	7
Goals scored, last 5	2.6	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	2.3	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	4	3
Failed to score, last 10	1	3
Wins in a row	2	1
Unbeaten run	2	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	6	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	20.8	19.0
Shots on target, last 5	8.8	6.4
Shots per possession	0.313	0.301
On-target shots per possession	0.128	0.102
Inside-box shots per possession	0.203	0.181
Share of shots from inside the box	63.5%	58.8%
Expected goals, last 5	2.34	1.75
Possession, last 5	59.6%	59.8%
Corners, last 5	6.2	6.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.263	0.304
On-target allowed per possession	0.083	0.098
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.135	0.163
Opponents' inside-box share	52.0%	48.8%
Save rate	66.7%	67.8%
Saves, last 5	1.8	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.81	0.93
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	88.8%	86.4%
Passes, last 5	533	487
Fouls, last 5	10.4	13.2
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	12
Drawn	11
Away side won	9
Goals, home side	51
Goals, away side	44

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 51.8% · Draw 24.4% · Away 23.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Maritimo v Benfica

primeira-liga · 17:00 UK

Finished 0–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	5	5
Position last season	—	3
Points this season	7	7
Goal difference this season	+1	+8
Elo rating going in	1,492	1,891
Matches on record, all seasons	432	531
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	11
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	3.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	2.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	0	0
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	0	52
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	7	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.8	23.2
Shots on target, last 5	5.0	8.6
Shots per possession	0.302	0.347
On-target shots per possession	0.091	0.124
Inside-box shots per possession	0.198	0.259
Share of shots from inside the box	69.1%	75.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.20	3.12
Possession, last 5	48.0%	59.2%
Corners, last 5	4.2	7.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.254	0.215
On-target allowed per possession	0.086	0.080
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.164	0.158
Opponents' inside-box share	62.7%	71.8%
Save rate	65.6%	68.5%
Saves, last 5	3.6	1.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.17	0.68
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	79.6%	86.6%
Passes, last 5	428	537
Fouls, last 5	15.0	11.6
Cards, last 5	2.4	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	26
Home side won	3
Drawn	1
Away side won	22
Goals, home side	14
Goals, away side	73

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 8.6% · Draw 15.1% · Away 76.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Ajax v PSV Eindhoven

eredivisie · 18:00 UK

Finished 1–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	2
Position last season	5	1
Points this season	7	10
Goal difference this season	+6	+10
Elo rating going in	1,707	1,852
Matches on record, all seasons	540	540
Recent form
Points, last 5	11	13
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	4.0
Goals conceded, last 5	0.4	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.8	3.8
Goals conceded, last 10	0.6	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	7	1
Failed to score, last 10	2	0
Wins in a row	1	3
Unbeaten run	6	10
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	6	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	2.2	3.2
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.0	1.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	18.8	21.6
Shots on target, last 5	6.4	9.4
Shots per possession	0.302	0.310
On-target shots per possession	0.107	0.134
Inside-box shots per possession	0.177	0.208
Share of shots from inside the box	59.5%	67.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.74	2.89
Possession, last 5	60.8%	63.0%
Corners, last 5	6.4	9.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.279	0.232
On-target allowed per possession	0.091	0.115
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.173	0.154
Opponents' inside-box share	61.9%	69.5%
Save rate	77.4%	67.2%
Saves, last 5	3.4	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.83	0.83
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	87.0%	87.6%
Passes, last 5	564	576
Fouls, last 5	12.0	7.4
Cards, last 5	1.6	0.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	13
Drawn	10
Away side won	9
Goals, home side	50
Goals, away side	46

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 36.0% · Draw 23.4% · Away 40.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

AS Roma v Atalanta

serie-a · 18:45 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	5
Position last season	3	7
Points this season	6	6
Goal difference this season	+8	+2
Elo rating going in	1,761	1,716
Matches on record, all seasons	610	572
Recent form
Points, last 5	15	10
Goals scored, last 5	3.0	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	0.4	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	2.7	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	0.8	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	7	3
Failed to score, last 10	0	3
Wins in a row	7	2
Unbeaten run	9	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	5	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	2.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.4	12.0
Shots on target, last 5	7.4	4.2
Shots per possession	0.245	0.253
On-target shots per possession	0.106	0.081
Inside-box shots per possession	0.182	0.164
Share of shots from inside the box	74.1%	64.0%
Expected goals, last 5	2.66	0.88
Possession, last 5	61.4%	49.0%
Corners, last 5	4.6	2.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.207	0.287
On-target allowed per possession	0.079	0.099
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.113	0.178
Opponents' inside-box share	54.9%	62.1%
Save rate	71.6%	76.8%
Saves, last 5	2.4	5.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.66	1.57
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	87.8%	86.2%
Passes, last 5	557	499
Fouls, last 5	11.2	13.4
Cards, last 5	1.4	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	30
Home side won	8
Drawn	9
Away side won	13
Goals, home side	42
Goals, away side	50

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 55.5% · Draw 24.8% · Away 19.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Le Havre v Stade Brestois 29

ligue-1 · 18:45 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	15	9
Position last season	14	12
Points this season	1	2
Goal difference this season	-1	+0
Elo rating going in	1,512	1,558
Matches on record, all seasons	104	360
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	3
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	2.3
Clean sheets, last 10	1	0
Failed to score, last 10	2	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	1	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.0	16.0
Shots on target, last 5	3.2	5.0
Shots per possession	0.231	0.245
On-target shots per possession	0.089	0.079
Inside-box shots per possession	0.153	0.168
Share of shots from inside the box	69.2%	68.0%
Expected goals, last 5	0.76	1.84
Possession, last 5	43.2%	47.6%
Corners, last 5	4.2	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.268	0.261
On-target allowed per possession	0.093	0.100
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.182	0.170
Opponents' inside-box share	65.6%	65.1%
Save rate	71.6%	58.5%
Saves, last 5	4.6	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.43	1.20
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	78.8%	81.6%
Passes, last 5	343	409
Fouls, last 5	15.0	11.8
Cards, last 5	2.6	0.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	1
Drawn	0
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	2
Goals, away side	8

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 36.3% · Draw 29.2% · Away 34.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Eldense v Mallorca

laliga-2 · 19:00 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	19	3
Position last season	—	17
Points this season	1	6
Goal difference this season	-4	+3
Elo rating going in	1,384	1,566
Matches on record, all seasons	87	473
Recent form
Points, last 5	2	9
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	2.4	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	2.0	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	1	4
Failed to score, last 10	4	2
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.4
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.4	13.8
Shots on target, last 5	3.4	4.2
Shots per possession	0.274	0.231
On-target shots per possession	0.088	0.084
Inside-box shots per possession	0.170	0.148
Share of shots from inside the box	60.6%	61.9%
Expected goals, last 5	—	1.49
Possession, last 5	44.8%	58.2%
Corners, last 5	5.8	3.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.218	0.245
On-target allowed per possession	0.090	0.064
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.156	0.159
Opponents' inside-box share	70.2%	61.7%
Save rate	65.7%	67.4%
Saves, last 5	2.8	1.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	—	1.36
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	78.8%	87.4%
Passes, last 5	344	493
Fouls, last 5	10.0	12.6
Cards, last 5	2.0	2.2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 25.8% · Draw 27.9% · Away 46.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

ST Mirren v Celtic

scottish-prem · 19:00 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	1
Position last season	11	1
Points this season	10	12
Goal difference this season	+4	+9
Elo rating going in	1,499	1,804
Matches on record, all seasons	489	599
Recent form
Points, last 5	13	15
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	2.8
Goals conceded, last 5	0.6	0.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	2.6
Goals conceded, last 10	0.9	0.8
Clean sheets, last 10	5	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	0
Wins in a row	1	11
Unbeaten run	8	11
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.2	22.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	9.0
Shots per possession	0.280	0.287
On-target shots per possession	0.104	0.113
Inside-box shots per possession	0.183	0.179
Share of shots from inside the box	63.9%	60.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.75	3.47
Possession, last 5	49.0%	62.6%
Corners, last 5	5.5	9.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.215	0.236
On-target allowed per possession	0.066	0.069
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.146	0.163
Opponents' inside-box share	67.8%	69.8%
Save rate	70.4%	69.5%
Saves, last 5	2.2	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.39	0.71
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	79.7%	87.2%
Passes, last 5	431	621
Fouls, last 5	14.0	9.2
Cards, last 5	2.4	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	42
Home side won	2
Drawn	5
Away side won	35
Goals, home side	18
Goals, away side	106

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 16.0% · Draw 19.4% · Away 64.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Swansea v Wrexham

championship · 19:00 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	12
Position last season	11	7
Points this season	10	5
Goal difference this season	+6	+2
Elo rating going in	1,556	1,555
Matches on record, all seasons	643	96
Recent form
Points, last 5	13	6
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	0.4	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	0.8	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	4	3
Failed to score, last 10	1	1
Wins in a row	2	1
Unbeaten run	7	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	4	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.0	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.8	14.8
Shots on target, last 5	6.0	5.5
Shots per possession	0.245	0.255
On-target shots per possession	0.093	0.083
Inside-box shots per possession	0.155	0.166
Share of shots from inside the box	63.6%	63.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.44	1.56
Possession, last 5	63.2%	50.2%
Corners, last 5	6.8	7.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.307	0.261
On-target allowed per possession	0.087	0.106
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.218	0.175
Opponents' inside-box share	72.5%	67.4%
Save rate	73.6%	62.6%
Saves, last 5	1.2	2.5
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.98	1.34
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.0%	80.2%
Passes, last 5	514	418
Fouls, last 5	8.5	11.5
Cards, last 5	1.4	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	1
Drawn	0
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	2
Goals, away side	3

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 44.1% · Draw 27.2% · Away 28.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Villarreal v Deportivo La Coruna

la-liga · 19:00 UK

Finished 2–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	12	7
Position last season	3	2
Points this season	2	5
Goal difference this season	-1	+2
Elo rating going in	1,714	1,543
Matches on record, all seasons	573	401
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	8
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	2.0	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	0.9
Clean sheets, last 10	0	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	0
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	3
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	8	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.6	8.0
Shots on target, last 5	5.8	3.4
Shots per possession	0.231	0.235
On-target shots per possession	0.095	0.101
Inside-box shots per possession	0.160	0.166
Share of shots from inside the box	68.5%	68.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.84	0.96
Possession, last 5	55.4%	41.8%
Corners, last 5	7.2	3.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.295	0.212
On-target allowed per possession	0.091	0.071
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.162	0.128
Opponents' inside-box share	58.3%	60.0%
Save rate	69.3%	73.1%
Saves, last 5	2.8	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.24	1.57
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	87.2%	85.4%
Passes, last 5	513	425
Fouls, last 5	9.4	11.8
Cards, last 5	1.6	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	4
Drawn	4
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	12
Goals, away side	8

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 63.0% · Draw 21.0% · Away 16.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Willem II v Excelsior

eredivisie · 19:00 UK

Finished 0–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	15	6
Position last season	—	13
Points this season	1	6
Goal difference this season	-6	+4
Elo rating going in	1,393	1,507
Matches on record, all seasons	375	353
Recent form
Points, last 5	2	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	2.2
Goals conceded, last 5	3.0	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	2.2
Goals conceded, last 10	2.4	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	0	2
Failed to score, last 10	0	1
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	1	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	6	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.6	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	2.6	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.4	12.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.0	4.2
Shots per possession	0.298	0.277
On-target shots per possession	0.092	0.103
Inside-box shots per possession	0.204	0.180
Share of shots from inside the box	68.1%	64.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.53	1.23
Possession, last 5	41.0%	50.4%
Corners, last 5	4.0	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.269	0.258
On-target allowed per possession	0.109	0.080
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.194	0.165
Opponents' inside-box share	72.6%	62.3%
Save rate	65.0%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	3.6	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.23	1.22
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	73.8%	80.6%
Passes, last 5	326	427
Fouls, last 5	11.8	11.6
Cards, last 5	1.2	0.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	12
Home side won	2
Drawn	6
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	15
Goals, away side	19

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 33.4% · Draw 25.7% · Away 40.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Sporting CP v Nacional

primeira-liga · 19:30 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	9
Position last season	2	14
Points this season	10	4
Goal difference this season	+7	+0
Elo rating going in	1,905	1,479
Matches on record, all seasons	532	362
Recent form
Points, last 5	13	7
Goals scored, last 5	3.0	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	2.8	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	2	4
Failed to score, last 10	0	3
Wins in a row	3	0
Unbeaten run	9	0
Losses in a row	0	2
Days since last match	8	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	2.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.0	10.4
Shots on target, last 5	5.0	3.0
Shots per possession	0.226	0.241
On-target shots per possession	0.097	0.080
Inside-box shots per possession	0.158	0.129
Share of shots from inside the box	65.7%	53.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.50	1.10
Possession, last 5	60.8%	49.0%
Corners, last 5	3.8	4.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.264	0.336
On-target allowed per possession	0.075	0.092
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.150	0.203
Opponents' inside-box share	55.0%	60.8%
Save rate	68.1%	72.2%
Saves, last 5	1.0	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.68	1.77
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	89.4%	78.6%
Passes, last 5	491	375
Fouls, last 5	11.8	12.8
Cards, last 5	1.6	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	22
Home side won	16
Drawn	5
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	43
Goals, away side	12

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 79.6% · Draw 12.3% · Away 8.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Utrecht v GO Ahead Eagles

eredivisie · 12:00 UK

Finished 3–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	15	4
Position last season	6	12
Points this season	1	7
Goal difference this season	-9	+2
Elo rating going in	1,623	1,556
Matches on record, all seasons	569	278
Recent form
Points, last 5	2	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	2.4
Goals conceded, last 5	3.0	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	2.0
Goals conceded, last 10	2.3	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	3	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	1
Days since last match	9	10
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	2.4	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	2.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.2	11.4
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	5.2
Shots per possession	0.315	0.246
On-target shots per possession	0.113	0.103
Inside-box shots per possession	0.221	0.163
Share of shots from inside the box	73.5%	68.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.26	1.40
Possession, last 5	40.8%	50.6%
Corners, last 5	3.0	5.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.315	0.445
On-target allowed per possession	0.109	0.099
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.181	0.287
Opponents' inside-box share	59.5%	63.7%
Save rate	62.7%	68.1%
Saves, last 5	4.8	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.94	2.43
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	77.0%	81.4%
Passes, last 5	355	436
Fouls, last 5	18.2	7.6
Cards, last 5	2.4	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	17
Home side won	6
Drawn	7
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	28
Goals, away side	21

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 44.4% · Draw 25.7% · Away 29.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.