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The data behind the ratings

Sunday 6 September 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

Groningen v Twente

eredivisie · 10:15 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	6	7
Position last season	9	4
Points this season	6	6
Goal difference this season	-1	+4
Elo rating going in	1,526	1,669
Matches on record, all seasons	524	517
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	9
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	2.4
Goals conceded, last 5	2.4	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	2.1
Goals conceded, last 10	2.0	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	1	1
Failed to score, last 10	2	1
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	0	2
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	9	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.6	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	2.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.4	22.6
Shots on target, last 5	5.2	8.4
Shots per possession	0.270	0.329
On-target shots per possession	0.102	0.125
Inside-box shots per possession	0.184	0.223
Share of shots from inside the box	67.2%	66.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.49	2.19
Possession, last 5	49.6%	58.4%
Corners, last 5	3.6	8.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.267	0.251
On-target allowed per possession	0.110	0.087
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.187	0.139
Opponents' inside-box share	68.3%	55.6%
Save rate	61.2%	65.6%
Saves, last 5	4.2	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.08	0.98
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.0%	84.6%
Passes, last 5	420	522
Fouls, last 5	10.2	8.8
Cards, last 5	1.8	0.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	30
Home side won	3
Drawn	11
Away side won	16
Goals, home side	33
Goals, away side	64

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 28.9% · Draw 25.1% · Away 46.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Birmingham v Wolves

championship · 11:00 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	8	3
Position last season	10	20
Points this season	6	7
Goal difference this season	+1	+3
Elo rating going in	1,555	1,584
Matches on record, all seasons	734	660
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	8
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	2.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	2	0
Failed to score, last 10	1	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	9	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	5	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.0	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	2.4
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.2	17.0
Shots on target, last 5	3.2	5.0
Shots per possession	0.241	0.311
On-target shots per possession	0.096	0.086
Inside-box shots per possession	0.169	0.211
Share of shots from inside the box	69.8%	70.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.54	2.08
Possession, last 5	51.8%	48.2%
Corners, last 5	7.5	5.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.218	0.229
On-target allowed per possession	0.068	0.075
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.151	0.148
Opponents' inside-box share	68.1%	63.7%
Save rate	66.7%	63.9%
Saves, last 5	2.2	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.99	0.83
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	68.0%	81.8%
Passes, last 5	351	403
Fouls, last 5	12.2	11.0
Cards, last 5	1.2	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	12
Home side won	2
Drawn	3
Away side won	7
Goals, home side	8
Goals, away side	16

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 32.3% · Draw 29.3% · Away 38.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Eibar v Granada CF

laliga-2 · 12:00 UK

Finished 3–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	1
Position last season	8	14
Points this season	6	7
Goal difference this season	+0	+4
Elo rating going in	1,512	1,450
Matches on record, all seasons	485	593
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	5	3
Failed to score, last 10	0	3
Wins in a row	2	2
Unbeaten run	2	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	1.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	1.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.6	12.2
Shots on target, last 5	2.6	4.2
Shots per possession	0.255	0.224
On-target shots per possession	0.070	0.078
Inside-box shots per possession	0.172	0.127
Share of shots from inside the box	66.5%	56.9%
Expected goals, last 5	0.85	1.14
Possession, last 5	43.4%	48.4%
Corners, last 5	4.4	4.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.283	0.288
On-target allowed per possession	0.085	0.101
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.154	0.166
Opponents' inside-box share	55.3%	56.1%
Save rate	72.7%	65.1%
Saves, last 5	4.4	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.94	0.38
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	79.2%	80.4%
Passes, last 5	378	376
Fouls, last 5	8.2	10.8
Cards, last 5	1.4	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	16
Home side won	10
Drawn	5
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	34
Goals, away side	11

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 45.6% · Draw 28.5% · Away 25.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Heerenveen v AZ Alkmaar

eredivisie · 12:30 UK

Finished 2–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	9	1
Position last season	8	7
Points this season	5	12
Goal difference this season	-1	+10
Elo rating going in	1,569	1,667
Matches on record, all seasons	558	553
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	13
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	3.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	2.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	0.9
Clean sheets, last 10	3	5
Failed to score, last 10	4	1
Wins in a row	0	4
Unbeaten run	1	10
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	3.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.0	19.6
Shots on target, last 5	5.2	8.4
Shots per possession	0.227	0.338
On-target shots per possession	0.082	0.122
Inside-box shots per possession	0.153	0.210
Share of shots from inside the box	67.9%	63.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.02	2.56
Possession, last 5	55.2%	57.0%
Corners, last 5	4.6	9.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.382	0.222
On-target allowed per possession	0.116	0.083
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.232	0.131
Opponents' inside-box share	60.0%	60.7%
Save rate	73.9%	74.4%
Saves, last 5	3.0	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.62	1.22
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	86.2%	85.0%
Passes, last 5	467	488
Fouls, last 5	6.4	10.8
Cards, last 5	0.8	0.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	37
Home side won	12
Drawn	6
Away side won	19
Goals, home side	61
Goals, away side	83

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 24.0% · Draw 22.6% · Away 53.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Telstar v Cambuur

eredivisie · 12:30 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	14	18
Position last season	14	—
Points this season	3	0
Goal difference this season	-5	-12
Elo rating going in	1,550	1,340
Matches on record, all seasons	43	176
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	1
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	3.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.8	2.7
Clean sheets, last 10	1	1
Failed to score, last 10	2	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	2	4
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.6	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	2.0	2.8
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.0	17.0
Shots on target, last 5	3.4	5.0
Shots per possession	0.240	0.279
On-target shots per possession	0.097	0.080
Inside-box shots per possession	0.177	0.186
Share of shots from inside the box	72.6%	66.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.35	1.19
Possession, last 5	45.6%	52.2%
Corners, last 5	4.2	6.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.322	0.295
On-target allowed per possession	0.135	0.129
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.215	0.181
Opponents' inside-box share	66.0%	62.5%
Save rate	70.1%	58.9%
Saves, last 5	4.4	4.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.81	2.26
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	75.8%	83.2%
Passes, last 5	355	453
Fouls, last 5	13.6	10.0
Cards, last 5	1.2	1.4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 58.5% · Draw 21.4% · Away 20.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Estac Troyes v Strasbourg

ligue-1 · 13:00 UK

Finished 2–6. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	6
Position last season	—	8
Points this season	4	3
Goal difference this season	+1	-3
Elo rating going in	1,410	1,632
Matches on record, all seasons	192	321
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	2.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.8	2.1
Clean sheets, last 10	1	0
Failed to score, last 10	3	2
Wins in a row	1	1
Unbeaten run	3	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	8	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	7.8	12.2
Shots on target, last 5	2.6	5.4
Shots per possession	0.192	0.224
On-target shots per possession	0.074	0.097
Inside-box shots per possession	0.133	0.147
Share of shots from inside the box	70.2%	64.1%
Expected goals, last 5	0.68	1.48
Possession, last 5	39.0%	49.0%
Corners, last 5	3.8	3.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.334	0.353
On-target allowed per possession	0.116	0.145
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.216	0.235
Opponents' inside-box share	63.5%	65.1%
Save rate	71.4%	69.4%
Saves, last 5	3.4	4.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.24	1.91
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	78.6%	85.8%
Passes, last 5	335	461
Fouls, last 5	8.0	10.6
Cards, last 5	0.8	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	2
Drawn	3
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	10
Goals, away side	7

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 32.8% · Draw 27.3% · Away 39.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Everton v Manchester United

premier-league · 13:00 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	10
Position last season	13	3
Points this season	4	3
Goal difference this season	+2	+1
Elo rating going in	1,715	1,798
Matches on record, all seasons	610	610
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	2.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	2.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	1	2
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	2	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.4	21.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.6	6.6
Shots per possession	0.299	0.342
On-target shots per possession	0.133	0.120
Inside-box shots per possession	0.211	0.225
Share of shots from inside the box	70.8%	61.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.18	2.65
Possession, last 5	44.6%	55.4%
Corners, last 5	6.2	6.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.263	0.266
On-target allowed per possession	0.075	0.088
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.187	0.169
Opponents' inside-box share	71.5%	65.0%
Save rate	63.0%	70.4%
Saves, last 5	3.0	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.73	1.44
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.2%	85.8%
Passes, last 5	366	513
Fouls, last 5	12.8	9.4
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	7
Drawn	9
Away side won	16
Goals, home side	34
Goals, away side	52

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 28.7% · Draw 26.3% · Away 45.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Frosinone v Venezia

serie-a · 13:00 UK

Finished 3–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	5	19
Position last season	—	—
Points this season	3	0
Goal difference this season	+2	-4
Elo rating going in	1,476	1,471
Matches on record, all seasons	116	78
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	3
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	0.9
Goals conceded, last 10	0.9	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	6	1
Failed to score, last 10	6	4
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	4
Days since last match	8	9
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	0.8
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.4	1.8
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.4	11.8
Shots on target, last 5	5.2	3.8
Shots per possession	0.349	0.234
On-target shots per possession	0.123	0.078
Inside-box shots per possession	0.204	0.151
Share of shots from inside the box	58.2%	65.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.13	1.27
Possession, last 5	41.0%	49.4%
Corners, last 5	6.2	4.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.260	0.312
On-target allowed per possession	0.068	0.087
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.149	0.184
Opponents' inside-box share	56.3%	59.9%
Save rate	72.8%	62.4%
Saves, last 5	2.8	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.49	1.75
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	75.6%	81.0%
Passes, last 5	313	419
Fouls, last 5	11.8	11.8
Cards, last 5	1.4	1.4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 35.3% · Draw 26.9% · Away 37.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Parma v Monza

serie-a · 13:00 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	17	18
Position last season	12	—
Points this season	0	0
Goal difference this season	-3	-4
Elo rating going in	1,546	1,434
Matches on record, all seasons	382	116
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	3
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	2.6
Goals scored, last 10	0.7	0.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	2.4
Clean sheets, last 10	3	0
Failed to score, last 10	4	5
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	2	4
Days since last match	8	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.8
Scored away, last 5 there	0.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	8.4	8.8
Shots on target, last 5	2.6	3.2
Shots per possession	0.189	0.199
On-target shots per possession	0.062	0.068
Inside-box shots per possession	0.116	0.132
Share of shots from inside the box	64.2%	66.4%
Expected goals, last 5	0.65	1.16
Possession, last 5	42.0%	46.6%
Corners, last 5	1.8	2.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.235	0.279
On-target allowed per possession	0.072	0.103
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.156	0.179
Opponents' inside-box share	67.3%	64.6%
Save rate	72.9%	58.7%
Saves, last 5	3.6	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.74	1.29
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.8%	84.2%
Passes, last 5	330	432
Fouls, last 5	10.8	9.8
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	1
Drawn	1
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	3
Goals, away side	2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 36.1% · Draw 32.7% · Away 31.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Hamburger SV v FSV Mainz 05

bundesliga · 13:30 UK

Finished 0–5. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	12	5
Position last season	13	10
Points this season	0	1
Goal difference this season	-2	+0
Elo rating going in	1,495	1,571
Matches on record, all seasons	311	545
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	2.0	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	0	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	2
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	8	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.2	17.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	6.0
Shots per possession	0.256	0.335
On-target shots per possession	0.097	0.124
Inside-box shots per possession	0.160	0.251
Share of shots from inside the box	64.4%	75.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.29	2.35
Possession, last 5	41.6%	45.8%
Corners, last 5	2.8	6.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.285	0.226
On-target allowed per possession	0.106	0.078
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.191	0.168
Opponents' inside-box share	64.0%	74.7%
Save rate	68.3%	68.8%
Saves, last 5	4.2	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.44	1.80
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.0%	80.8%
Passes, last 5	371	406
Fouls, last 5	12.2	10.6
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	18
Home side won	6
Drawn	6
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	23
Goals, away side	23

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 33.8% · Draw 26.7% · Away 39.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Heart Of Midlothian v Dundee

scottish-prem · 14:00 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	4
Position last season	2	8
Points this season	9	7
Goal difference this season	+6	+2
Elo rating going in	1,680	1,483
Matches on record, all seasons	524	389
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	7
Goals scored, last 5	2.2	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	2.2	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	2	4
Failed to score, last 10	0	2
Wins in a row	3	0
Unbeaten run	3	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	3	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.2	12.8
Shots on target, last 5	5.0	3.8
Shots per possession	0.285	0.278
On-target shots per possession	0.103	0.092
Inside-box shots per possession	0.189	0.197
Share of shots from inside the box	67.1%	72.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.53	1.27
Possession, last 5	43.2%	40.2%
Corners, last 5	7.0	3.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.198	0.279
On-target allowed per possession	0.048	0.082
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.130	0.171
Opponents' inside-box share	65.0%	61.1%
Save rate	63.7%	73.8%
Saves, last 5	1.8	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.80	1.72
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	72.0%	72.0%
Passes, last 5	348	346
Fouls, last 5	11.4	10.2
Cards, last 5	1.4	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	30
Home side won	17
Drawn	3
Away side won	10
Goals, home side	46
Goals, away side	25

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 63.8% · Draw 20.8% · Away 15.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

ST Johnstone v Hibernian

scottish-prem · 14:00 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	8	7
Position last season	—	5
Points this season	4	6
Goal difference this season	-1	-1
Elo rating going in	1,406	1,602
Matches on record, all seasons	565	487
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	6
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.8	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	0	0
Failed to score, last 10	4	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	4	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.2	16.0
Shots on target, last 5	3.0	4.0
Shots per possession	0.248	0.273
On-target shots per possession	0.060	0.080
Inside-box shots per possession	0.159	0.174
Share of shots from inside the box	65.2%	58.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.40	1.70
Possession, last 5	54.6%	47.4%
Corners, last 5	3.6	6.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.278	0.270
On-target allowed per possession	0.093	0.088
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.154	0.167
Opponents' inside-box share	58.7%	62.8%
Save rate	69.5%	70.8%
Saves, last 5	3.6	4.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.28	1.48
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	83.0%	79.5%
Passes, last 5	483	403
Fouls, last 5	10.4	14.0
Cards, last 5	1.6	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	39
Home side won	13
Drawn	11
Away side won	15
Goals, home side	42
Goals, away side	51

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 33.6% · Draw 28.5% · Away 37.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Oviedo v Burgos

laliga-2 · 14:15 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	9	12
Position last season	20	7
Points this season	4	4
Goal difference this season	+0	+0
Elo rating going in	1,504	1,514
Matches on record, all seasons	427	213
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	10
Goals scored, last 5	0.2	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	0.3	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	0.9
Clean sheets, last 10	3	5
Failed to score, last 10	7	3
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	8	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.4	10.4
Shots on target, last 5	2.6	3.8
Shots per possession	0.228	0.249
On-target shots per possession	0.060	0.084
Inside-box shots per possession	0.146	0.182
Share of shots from inside the box	62.9%	71.8%
Expected goals, last 5	0.37	—
Possession, last 5	56.0%	41.8%
Corners, last 5	5.4	2.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.234	0.254
On-target allowed per possession	0.077	0.081
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.142	0.141
Opponents' inside-box share	61.2%	54.4%
Save rate	66.7%	74.5%
Saves, last 5	2.5	4.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.05	—
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.2%	76.6%
Passes, last 5	456	349
Fouls, last 5	13.6	12.4
Cards, last 5	2.4	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	4
Drawn	1
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	12
Goals, away side	7

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 49.4% · Draw 29.8% · Away 20.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Valencia v Barcelona

la-liga · 14:15 UK

Finished 0–5. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	17	1
Position last season	9	1
Points this season	1	9
Goal difference this season	-3	+10
Elo rating going in	1,603	1,886
Matches on record, all seasons	611	611
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	12
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	3.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	2.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	0.8
Clean sheets, last 10	2	5
Failed to score, last 10	3	1
Wins in a row	0	3
Unbeaten run	0	3
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.6	17.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.2	7.8
Shots per possession	0.304	0.208
On-target shots per possession	0.085	0.088
Inside-box shots per possession	0.190	0.155
Share of shots from inside the box	61.2%	73.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.24	2.70
Possession, last 5	42.0%	66.6%
Corners, last 5	4.6	7.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.218	0.282
On-target allowed per possession	0.074	0.087
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.136	0.187
Opponents' inside-box share	64.3%	66.5%
Save rate	71.6%	71.0%
Saves, last 5	2.4	1.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.09	0.89
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.8%	89.8%
Passes, last 5	402	637
Fouls, last 5	10.8	8.8
Cards, last 5	1.6	0.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	4
Drawn	8
Away side won	20
Goals, home side	40
Goals, away side	75

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 10.6% · Draw 15.1% · Away 74.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Santa Clara v Rio Ave

primeira-liga · 14:30 UK

Finished 4–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	10
Position last season	12	13
Points this season	8	3
Goal difference this season	+2	-5
Elo rating going in	1,585	1,541
Matches on record, all seasons	242	500
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	0.8
Goals conceded, last 10	0.9	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	4	3
Failed to score, last 10	3	5
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	4	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	8	9
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.4
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.0	6.8
Shots on target, last 5	2.8	1.8
Shots per possession	0.271	0.201
On-target shots per possession	0.060	0.060
Inside-box shots per possession	0.163	0.125
Share of shots from inside the box	59.6%	63.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.19	0.53
Possession, last 5	44.2%	45.4%
Corners, last 5	3.2	2.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.169	0.282
On-target allowed per possession	0.058	0.097
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.101	0.167
Opponents' inside-box share	58.9%	58.7%
Save rate	72.8%	69.1%
Saves, last 5	2.4	4.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.85	1.77
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	76.8%	80.6%
Passes, last 5	332	373
Fouls, last 5	12.8	8.8
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	12
Home side won	4
Drawn	3
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	11
Goals, away side	15

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 51.1% · Draw 28.9% · Away 20.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

ADO Den Haag v Fortuna Sittard

eredivisie · 14:45 UK

Finished 2–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	16	5
Position last season	—	11
Points this season	1	7
Goal difference this season	-7	+1
Elo rating going in	1,419	1,520
Matches on record, all seasons	388	268
Recent form
Points, last 5	1	7
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	2.4	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	2.7	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	0	0
Failed to score, last 10	3	3
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	1	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	9
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	1.2
Conceded away, last 5 there	3.2	2.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.8	10.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.0	4.4
Shots per possession	0.271	0.277
On-target shots per possession	0.076	0.118
Inside-box shots per possession	0.169	0.150
Share of shots from inside the box	60.6%	55.4%
Expected goals, last 5	0.80	0.83
Possession, last 5	50.6%	32.4%
Corners, last 5	4.6	2.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.255	0.285
On-target allowed per possession	0.123	0.096
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.169	0.198
Opponents' inside-box share	66.6%	68.8%
Save rate	60.3%	67.9%
Saves, last 5	5.0	4.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.32	2.55
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.4%	72.2%
Passes, last 5	428	285
Fouls, last 5	11.6	8.2
Cards, last 5	1.4	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	5
Home side won	1
Drawn	1
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	3
Goals, away side	7

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 45.4% · Draw 23.9% · Away 30.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Angers v Rennes

ligue-1 · 15:15 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	7	4
Position last season	13	6
Points this season	3	4
Goal difference this season	+0	+1
Elo rating going in	1,484	1,642
Matches on record, all seasons	364	588
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	2.4
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	2.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.9	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	1
Wins in a row	1	1
Unbeaten run	1	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.6	16.0
Shots on target, last 5	3.4	5.4
Shots per possession	0.266	0.323
On-target shots per possession	0.082	0.116
Inside-box shots per possession	0.177	0.211
Share of shots from inside the box	65.5%	64.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.42	1.77
Possession, last 5	43.2%	50.2%
Corners, last 5	5.4	6.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.284	0.318
On-target allowed per possession	0.124	0.115
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.177	0.212
Opponents' inside-box share	61.9%	61.4%
Save rate	72.5%	63.8%
Saves, last 5	5.6	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.63	2.44
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.6%	82.0%
Passes, last 5	365	423
Fouls, last 5	8.6	11.8
Cards, last 5	2.4	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	19
Home side won	2
Drawn	4
Away side won	13
Goals, home side	15
Goals, away side	33

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 24.6% · Draw 24.5% · Away 50.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Arsenal v Chelsea

premier-league · 15:30 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	3
Position last season	1	10
Points this season	6	6
Goal difference this season	+4	+2
Elo rating going in	1,933	1,759
Matches on record, all seasons	610	610
Recent form
Points, last 5	15	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	2.2
Goals conceded, last 5	0.2	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	0.5	2.2
Clean sheets, last 10	7	0
Failed to score, last 10	0	4
Wins in a row	7	2
Unbeaten run	7	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	6	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.4	11.6
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	4.4
Shots per possession	0.263	0.289
On-target shots per possession	0.085	0.086
Inside-box shots per possession	0.172	0.191
Share of shots from inside the box	66.9%	61.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.57	1.34
Possession, last 5	62.0%	43.4%
Corners, last 5	4.4	3.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.200	0.236
On-target allowed per possession	0.050	0.112
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.121	0.182
Opponents' inside-box share	57.5%	74.4%
Save rate	70.7%	62.2%
Saves, last 5	1.2	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.58	1.41
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	87.8%	80.2%
Passes, last 5	534	400
Fouls, last 5	9.4	10.6
Cards, last 5	1.6	3.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	12
Drawn	9
Away side won	11
Goals, home side	47
Goals, away side	44

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 56.0% · Draw 25.2% · Away 18.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Eintracht Frankfurt v FC Augsburg

bundesliga · 15:30 UK

Finished 1–4. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	5	2
Position last season	8	9
Points this season	1	3
Goal difference this season	+0	+3
Elo rating going in	1,587	1,560
Matches on record, all seasons	511	511
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.9	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	1	1
Failed to score, last 10	0	2
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	2	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.6	16.2
Shots on target, last 5	5.2	6.8
Shots per possession	0.231	0.376
On-target shots per possession	0.087	0.158
Inside-box shots per possession	0.139	0.266
Share of shots from inside the box	60.8%	68.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.36	2.26
Possession, last 5	55.4%	41.4%
Corners, last 5	5.2	6.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.316	0.287
On-target allowed per possession	0.147	0.101
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.234	0.192
Opponents' inside-box share	72.9%	66.9%
Save rate	70.3%	68.3%
Saves, last 5	4.4	4.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.56	1.76
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	82.4%	75.2%
Passes, last 5	458	356
Fouls, last 5	11.6	7.6
Cards, last 5	3.0	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	28
Home side won	9
Drawn	11
Away side won	8
Goals, home side	40
Goals, away side	33

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 48.6% · Draw 23.4% · Away 28.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Bologna v Sassuolo

serie-a · 16:00 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	14	12
Position last season	8	11
Points this season	0	3
Goal difference this season	-2	+0
Elo rating going in	1,645	1,566
Matches on record, all seasons	572	458
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	3
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	5	2
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	6	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.0	15.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	5.8
Shots per possession	0.206	0.279
On-target shots per possession	0.065	0.096
Inside-box shots per possession	0.130	0.169
Share of shots from inside the box	63.4%	61.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.28	1.80
Possession, last 5	53.0%	52.8%
Corners, last 5	3.4	3.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.215	0.282
On-target allowed per possession	0.062	0.093
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.138	0.172
Opponents' inside-box share	62.7%	58.8%
Save rate	61.8%	69.3%
Saves, last 5	1.8	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.82	1.42
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	87.6%	87.0%
Passes, last 5	490	479
Fouls, last 5	12.8	10.4
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	22
Home side won	9
Drawn	7
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	33
Goals, away side	26

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 46.9% · Draw 28.1% · Away 25.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Alaves v Osasuna

la-liga · 16:30 UK

Finished 5–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	4
Position last season	14	16
Points this season	7	7
Goal difference this season	+4	+2
Elo rating going in	1,603	1,593
Matches on record, all seasons	391	543
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	0.6	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	4	2
Failed to score, last 10	0	3
Wins in a row	1	2
Unbeaten run	3	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	9	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.6	0.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.2	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.2	14.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	5.4
Shots per possession	0.324	0.255
On-target shots per possession	0.107	0.099
Inside-box shots per possession	0.208	0.166
Share of shots from inside the box	63.6%	63.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.51	1.46
Possession, last 5	41.6%	50.8%
Corners, last 5	5.6	5.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.194	0.205
On-target allowed per possession	0.065	0.067
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.122	0.115
Opponents' inside-box share	62.1%	54.7%
Save rate	67.9%	66.1%
Saves, last 5	3.8	1.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.74	0.62
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	77.6%	78.4%
Passes, last 5	294	397
Fouls, last 5	14.4	14.4
Cards, last 5	2.4	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	14
Home side won	1
Drawn	4
Away side won	9
Goals, home side	9
Goals, away side	22

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 42.2% · Draw 31.5% · Away 26.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Castellón v Albacete

laliga-2 · 16:30 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	20
Position last season	6	11
Points this season	7	0
Goal difference this season	+2	-3
Elo rating going in	1,516	1,446
Matches on record, all seasons	131	343
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	3
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	3	1
Failed to score, last 10	1	3
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	3	0
Losses in a row	0	4
Days since last match	6	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.8	13.8
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	4.8
Shots per possession	0.277	0.356
On-target shots per possession	0.097	0.130
Inside-box shots per possession	0.211	0.239
Share of shots from inside the box	74.3%	67.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.47	1.05
Possession, last 5	59.4%	47.4%
Corners, last 5	6.2	5.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.207	0.249
On-target allowed per possession	0.072	0.094
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.152	0.151
Opponents' inside-box share	74.7%	59.3%
Save rate	64.1%	74.6%
Saves, last 5	1.0	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.19	1.19
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	82.4%	80.0%
Passes, last 5	484	388
Fouls, last 5	13.8	11.6
Cards, last 5	2.4	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	2
Drawn	3
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	7
Goals, away side	4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 60.9% · Draw 22.7% · Away 16.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Malaga v Levante

la-liga · 16:30 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	18	8
Position last season	4	18
Points this season	1	4
Goal difference this season	-6	+0
Elo rating going in	1,536	1,589
Matches on record, all seasons	607	631
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	7
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	3	4
Failed to score, last 10	3	3
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	2
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	7	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.0	12.8
Shots on target, last 5	2.4	4.2
Shots per possession	0.254	0.315
On-target shots per possession	0.086	0.110
Inside-box shots per possession	0.168	0.202
Share of shots from inside the box	66.3%	60.3%
Expected goals, last 5	0.95	1.86
Possession, last 5	51.0%	41.0%
Corners, last 5	5.0	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.245	0.231
On-target allowed per possession	0.091	0.094
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.129	0.144
Opponents' inside-box share	50.3%	60.8%
Save rate	70.7%	69.5%
Saves, last 5	3.8	4.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.42	1.21
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	85.2%	81.4%
Passes, last 5	476	345
Fouls, last 5	9.8	9.2
Cards, last 5	2.6	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	18
Home side won	7
Drawn	4
Away side won	7
Goals, home side	17
Goals, away side	21

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 40.0% · Draw 28.8% · Away 31.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Guimaraes v Casa Pia

primeira-liga · 17:00 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	12	18
Position last season	8	16
Points this season	3	0
Goal difference this season	-2	-11
Elo rating going in	1,585	1,507
Matches on record, all seasons	532	142
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	3
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	0.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	0.8	0.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	3	3
Failed to score, last 10	4	6
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	4
Days since last match	6	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.0	10.4
Shots on target, last 5	3.4	3.2
Shots per possession	0.268	0.235
On-target shots per possession	0.068	0.080
Inside-box shots per possession	0.157	0.161
Share of shots from inside the box	57.3%	71.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.64	0.56
Possession, last 5	52.2%	48.2%
Corners, last 5	3.6	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.206	0.227
On-target allowed per possession	0.093	0.074
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.128	0.147
Opponents' inside-box share	64.7%	62.2%
Save rate	66.7%	68.9%
Saves, last 5	1.0	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.76	1.58
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.8%	80.4%
Passes, last 5	417	377
Fouls, last 5	15.8	12.4
Cards, last 5	2.8	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	1
Drawn	4
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	2
Goals, away side	5

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 63.1% · Draw 22.9% · Away 14.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Kocaelispor v Samsunspor

super-lig · 17:00 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	9
Position last season	11	7
Points this season	6	4
Goal difference this season	+1	+0
Elo rating going in	1,591	1,662
Matches on record, all seasons	37	145
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	7
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	0.7	2.0
Goals conceded, last 10	0.9	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	5	2
Wins in a row	2	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.8	11.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.0	3.2
Shots per possession	0.203	0.215
On-target shots per possession	0.049	0.079
Inside-box shots per possession	0.130	0.143
Share of shots from inside the box	64.9%	64.1%
Expected goals, last 5	0.63	1.18
Possession, last 5	54.6%	57.8%
Corners, last 5	3.2	2.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.240	0.402
On-target allowed per possession	0.061	0.123
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.117	0.273
Opponents' inside-box share	48.5%	67.2%
Save rate	70.8%	64.8%
Saves, last 5	2.0	5.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.01	2.11
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	83.4%	81.6%
Passes, last 5	462	455
Fouls, last 5	13.8	11.0
Cards, last 5	2.6	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	0
Drawn	1
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	0
Goals, away side	1

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 37.9% · Draw 32.7% · Away 29.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Trabzonspor v Gençlerbirliği S.K.

super-lig · 17:00 UK

Finished 5–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	10	1
Position last season	3	14
Points this season	4	7
Goal difference this season	+0	+2
Elo rating going in	1,728	1,542
Matches on record, all seasons	537	349
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	13
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	0	3
Failed to score, last 10	1	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	5
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	6	9
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.2	12.6
Shots on target, last 5	5.6	4.8
Shots per possession	0.255	0.256
On-target shots per possession	0.086	0.079
Inside-box shots per possession	0.161	0.141
Share of shots from inside the box	65.6%	57.3%
Expected goals, last 5	0.99	1.39
Possession, last 5	54.2%	44.8%
Corners, last 5	5.6	3.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.319	0.242
On-target allowed per possession	0.095	0.089
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.191	0.192
Opponents' inside-box share	60.5%	81.6%
Save rate	66.7%	72.2%
Saves, last 5	3.6	5.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.94	1.76
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	86.0%	77.2%
Passes, last 5	462	342
Fouls, last 5	11.6	11.8
Cards, last 5	1.8	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	20
Home side won	9
Drawn	6
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	34
Goals, away side	23

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 61.3% · Draw 22.3% · Away 16.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Juventus v AC Milan

serie-a · 18:45 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	1
Position last season	6	5
Points this season	6	6
Goal difference this season	+3	+3
Elo rating going in	1,756	1,728
Matches on record, all seasons	610	610
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	9
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	0.5	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	7	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	4
Wins in a row	2	2
Unbeaten run	3	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	8	9
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.4	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.6	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	19.8	15.8
Shots on target, last 5	6.0	5.4
Shots per possession	0.290	0.240
On-target shots per possession	0.089	0.070
Inside-box shots per possession	0.185	0.161
Share of shots from inside the box	64.9%	64.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.97	1.89
Possession, last 5	60.2%	52.2%
Corners, last 5	8.2	3.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.246	0.248
On-target allowed per possession	0.070	0.084
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.138	0.165
Opponents' inside-box share	57.0%	67.3%
Save rate	78.0%	71.1%
Saves, last 5	2.6	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.57	1.46
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	85.2%	86.0%
Passes, last 5	487	470
Fouls, last 5	16.8	10.4
Cards, last 5	1.6	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	18
Drawn	7
Away side won	7
Goals, home side	39
Goals, away side	24

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 45.6% · Draw 29.0% · Away 25.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Marseille v Paris FC

ligue-1 · 18:45 UK

Finished 2–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	7	1
Position last season	5	11
Points this season	3	4
Goal difference this season	+2	+3
Elo rating going in	1,657	1,599
Matches on record, all seasons	588	36
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	0.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	2.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	0.9
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	3	2
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	3
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	0.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.6	13.6
Shots on target, last 5	6.6	4.4
Shots per possession	0.303	0.279
On-target shots per possession	0.113	0.106
Inside-box shots per possession	0.199	0.214
Share of shots from inside the box	64.3%	76.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.72	1.76
Possession, last 5	57.0%	48.0%
Corners, last 5	4.4	2.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.249	0.234
On-target allowed per possession	0.085	0.070
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.178	0.156
Opponents' inside-box share	71.9%	66.1%
Save rate	61.9%	71.9%
Saves, last 5	2.6	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.75	0.82
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	86.0%	85.6%
Passes, last 5	515	467
Fouls, last 5	12.0	9.2
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	1
Drawn	1
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	7
Goals, away side	4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 52.2% · Draw 24.3% · Away 23.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Almeria v Cadiz

laliga-2 · 19:00 UK

Finished 3–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	10	15
Position last season	3	18
Points this season	3	3
Goal difference this season	+1	+0
Elo rating going in	1,505	1,375
Matches on record, all seasons	539	409
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	6
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	3
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	0.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.2	8.5
Shots on target, last 5	3.2	2.0
Shots per possession	0.265	0.184
On-target shots per possession	0.085	0.055
Inside-box shots per possession	0.179	0.109
Share of shots from inside the box	67.5%	61.5%
Expected goals, last 5	—	1.12
Possession, last 5	52.6%	48.2%
Corners, last 5	5.2	3.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.262	0.267
On-target allowed per possession	0.093	0.096
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.182	0.185
Opponents' inside-box share	70.1%	66.4%
Save rate	72.5%	67.7%
Saves, last 5	2.6	4.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	—	2.93
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	83.2%	83.8%
Passes, last 5	453	374
Fouls, last 5	8.8	11.5
Cards, last 5	1.0	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	16
Home side won	3
Drawn	7
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	19
Goals, away side	17

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 62.5% · Draw 22.0% · Away 15.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Espanyol v Sevilla

la-liga · 19:00 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	10	5
Position last season	11	15
Points this season	3	6
Goal difference this season	+1	+1
Elo rating going in	1,561	1,576
Matches on record, all seasons	623	611
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	6
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	3	1
Failed to score, last 10	3	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	2	1
Days since last match	8	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.2	12.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	4.2
Shots per possession	0.271	0.296
On-target shots per possession	0.094	0.090
Inside-box shots per possession	0.157	0.154
Share of shots from inside the box	57.1%	51.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.20	1.04
Possession, last 5	44.0%	42.4%
Corners, last 5	2.0	3.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.238	0.194
On-target allowed per possession	0.094	0.073
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.164	0.126
Opponents' inside-box share	68.4%	64.4%
Save rate	71.8%	63.9%
Saves, last 5	3.6	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.06	1.35
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.4%	78.6%
Passes, last 5	329	351
Fouls, last 5	12.4	18.4
Cards, last 5	2.2	3.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	28
Home side won	4
Drawn	7
Away side won	17
Goals, home side	33
Goals, away side	57

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 42.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 28.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.