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The data behind the ratings

Monday 7 September 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

Cagliari v Lecce

serie-a · 16:30 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	12	13
Position last season	14	17
Points this season	3	3
Goal difference this season	+0	-2
Elo rating going in	1,562	1,536
Matches on record, all seasons	534	268
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	9
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	0.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	3	3
Failed to score, last 10	4	5
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	1
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.2	0.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.2	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.8	9.4
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	4.2
Shots per possession	0.307	0.261
On-target shots per possession	0.085	0.093
Inside-box shots per possession	0.195	0.167
Share of shots from inside the box	63.5%	62.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.35	1.22
Possession, last 5	49.2%	31.6%
Corners, last 5	5.4	3.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.235	0.205
On-target allowed per possession	0.073	0.083
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.162	0.153
Opponents' inside-box share	67.2%	74.1%
Save rate	67.8%	70.0%
Saves, last 5	3.0	4.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.95	2.09
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	86.0%	72.8%
Passes, last 5	428	270
Fouls, last 5	9.2	10.4
Cards, last 5	1.6	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	12
Home side won	4
Drawn	5
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	19
Goals, away side	16

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 46.1% · Draw 30.0% · Away 23.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Getafe v Celta Vigo

la-liga · 17:00 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	13	16
Position last season	7	6
Points this season	3	2
Goal difference this season	-3	-3
Elo rating going in	1,582	1,614
Matches on record, all seasons	619	536
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	5
Goals scored, last 5	0.4	0.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	0.6	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	4	4
Failed to score, last 10	6	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	7	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	0.2	0.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	0.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	7.8	7.6
Shots on target, last 5	1.4	2.4
Shots per possession	0.192	0.140
On-target shots per possession	0.037	0.058
Inside-box shots per possession	0.116	0.092
Share of shots from inside the box	59.7%	58.2%
Expected goals, last 5	0.49	0.73
Possession, last 5	47.8%	53.2%
Corners, last 5	3.2	3.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.199	0.298
On-target allowed per possession	0.078	0.096
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.123	0.184
Opponents' inside-box share	63.1%	59.9%
Save rate	71.6%	73.1%
Saves, last 5	3.2	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.14	1.68
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	74.4%	88.0%
Passes, last 5	335	561
Fouls, last 5	14.2	10.8
Cards, last 5	2.4	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	26
Home side won	10
Drawn	9
Away side won	7
Goals, home side	32
Goals, away side	25

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 37.3% · Draw 34.4% · Away 28.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Göztepe v Gaziantep FK

super-lig · 17:00 UK

Finished 2–4. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	15	9
Position last season	6	12
Points this season	1	4
Goal difference this season	-2	+0
Elo rating going in	1,621	1,544
Matches on record, all seasons	253	259
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.9	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	2	1
Days since last match	9	9
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.4	12.6
Shots on target, last 5	5.6	3.6
Shots per possession	0.445	0.272
On-target shots per possession	0.149	0.085
Inside-box shots per possession	0.334	0.159
Share of shots from inside the box	74.2%	58.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.82	0.87
Possession, last 5	38.4%	55.0%
Corners, last 5	5.8	4.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.248	0.282
On-target allowed per possession	0.075	0.092
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.181	0.168
Opponents' inside-box share	74.7%	58.9%
Save rate	65.2%	68.2%
Saves, last 5	3.2	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.02	1.39
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	66.6%	82.4%
Passes, last 5	254	447
Fouls, last 5	15.8	12.6
Cards, last 5	2.6	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	3
Drawn	5
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	12
Goals, away side	12

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 47.7% · Draw 28.3% · Away 24.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Rizespor v Alanyaspor

super-lig · 17:00 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	8
Position last season	8	10
Points this season	6	4
Goal difference this season	+0	+0
Elo rating going in	1,608	1,588
Matches on record, all seasons	393	361
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	2
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	9	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	0.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	1.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.4	10.2
Shots on target, last 5	5.2	3.8
Shots per possession	0.293	0.227
On-target shots per possession	0.095	0.078
Inside-box shots per possession	0.167	0.142
Share of shots from inside the box	57.7%	62.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.52	1.03
Possession, last 5	53.8%	42.6%
Corners, last 5	6.2	3.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.276	0.219
On-target allowed per possession	0.106	0.083
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.171	0.129
Opponents' inside-box share	62.3%	58.5%
Save rate	67.7%	70.7%
Saves, last 5	3.4	4.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.02	1.37
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	86.0%	80.0%
Passes, last 5	458	366
Fouls, last 5	11.6	16.6
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	16
Home side won	4
Drawn	7
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	19
Goals, away side	20

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 52.1% · Draw 27.5% · Away 20.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Sabadell v Cordoba

laliga-2 · 18:30 UK

Finished 3–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	18
Position last season	—	10
Points this season	5	3
Goal difference this season	+1	-2
Elo rating going in	1,443	1,446
Matches on record, all seasons	45	251
Recent form
Points, last 5	11	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	0.0	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	0.6	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	7	1
Failed to score, last 10	4	1
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	5	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	9	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.2	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.4	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.6	17.6
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	4.6
Shots per possession	0.229	0.321
On-target shots per possession	0.069	0.094
Inside-box shots per possession	0.137	0.206
Share of shots from inside the box	55.4%	63.8%
Expected goals, last 5	—	2.65
Possession, last 5	40.8%	56.4%
Corners, last 5	4.6	7.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.196	0.305
On-target allowed per possession	0.058	0.111
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.091	0.193
Opponents' inside-box share	49.6%	60.9%
Save rate	77.4%	69.1%
Saves, last 5	2.6	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	—	1.39
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	69.4%	83.0%
Passes, last 5	332	417
Fouls, last 5	13.6	17.2
Cards, last 5	3.0	2.6

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 45.9% · Draw 28.4% · Away 25.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Udinese v Lazio

serie-a · 18:45 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	4
Position last season	10	9
Points this season	4	6
Goal difference this season	+1	+2
Elo rating going in	1,597	1,688
Matches on record, all seasons	610	610
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	9
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	0.9	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	4	3
Failed to score, last 10	4	3
Wins in a row	1	3
Unbeaten run	2	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	9	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.4	11.0
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	4.2
Shots per possession	0.289	0.236
On-target shots per possession	0.104	0.097
Inside-box shots per possession	0.195	0.145
Share of shots from inside the box	67.1%	62.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.21	0.91
Possession, last 5	44.6%	45.8%
Corners, last 5	3.2	4.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.261	0.230
On-target allowed per possession	0.075	0.078
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.166	0.148
Opponents' inside-box share	60.9%	66.1%
Save rate	71.1%	68.4%
Saves, last 5	3.8	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.36	1.25
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.2%	86.8%
Passes, last 5	401	446
Fouls, last 5	12.2	14.6
Cards, last 5	1.8	2.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	7
Drawn	9
Away side won	16
Goals, home side	33
Goals, away side	50

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 34.4% · Draw 31.5% · Away 34.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Estoril v Arouca

primeira-liga · 19:15 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	17	3
Position last season	10	9
Points this season	1	9
Goal difference this season	-5	+4
Elo rating going in	1,534	1,604
Matches on record, all seasons	370	308
Recent form
Points, last 5	1	12
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	0.6	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	0	3
Failed to score, last 10	4	2
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	3	0
Days since last match	7	9
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.2	11.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	4.0
Shots per possession	0.205	0.217
On-target shots per possession	0.072	0.074
Inside-box shots per possession	0.124	0.122
Share of shots from inside the box	61.8%	55.5%
Expected goals, last 5	0.97	1.28
Possession, last 5	45.6%	49.0%
Corners, last 5	3.8	3.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.249	0.260
On-target allowed per possession	0.085	0.076
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.163	0.170
Opponents' inside-box share	70.7%	63.3%
Save rate	59.8%	69.6%
Saves, last 5	2.4	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.09	1.39
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.6%	83.4%
Passes, last 5	386	446
Fouls, last 5	11.4	9.0
Cards, last 5	2.2	2.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	18
Home side won	7
Drawn	4
Away side won	7
Goals, home side	31
Goals, away side	27

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 36.8% · Draw 28.3% · Away 34.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Elche v Real Sociedad

la-liga · 19:30 UK

Finished 2–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	18	11
Position last season	13	10
Points this season	1	4
Goal difference this season	-6	-3
Elo rating going in	1,556	1,595
Matches on record, all seasons	445	612
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.9	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	1	1
Failed to score, last 10	1	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	2
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	10	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.8	12.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	5.0
Shots per possession	0.178	0.213
On-target shots per possession	0.069	0.088
Inside-box shots per possession	0.117	0.139
Share of shots from inside the box	68.2%	65.2%
Expected goals, last 5	0.81	1.26
Possession, last 5	54.2%	50.6%
Corners, last 5	4.8	7.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.231	0.351
On-target allowed per possession	0.103	0.127
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.159	0.198
Opponents' inside-box share	67.2%	55.7%
Save rate	57.3%	71.2%
Saves, last 5	2.6	4.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.33	1.84
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.8%	84.5%
Passes, last 5	474	483
Fouls, last 5	16.4	14.2
Cards, last 5	2.2	2.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	12
Home side won	1
Drawn	2
Away side won	9
Goals, home side	5
Goals, away side	23

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 27.1% · Draw 27.0% · Away 45.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.