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The data behind the ratings

Tuesday 8 September 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

Utrecht v GO Ahead Eagles

eredivisie · 12:00 UK

Finished 3–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	15	4
Position last season	6	12
Points this season	1	7
Goal difference this season	-9	+2
Elo rating going in	1,623	1,556
Matches on record, all seasons	569	278
Recent form
Points, last 5	2	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	2.4
Goals conceded, last 5	3.0	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	2.0
Goals conceded, last 10	2.3	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	3	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	1
Days since last match	9	10
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	2.4	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	2.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.2	11.4
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	5.2
Shots per possession	0.315	0.246
On-target shots per possession	0.113	0.103
Inside-box shots per possession	0.221	0.163
Share of shots from inside the box	73.5%	68.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.26	1.40
Possession, last 5	40.8%	50.6%
Corners, last 5	3.0	5.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.315	0.445
On-target allowed per possession	0.109	0.099
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.181	0.287
Opponents' inside-box share	59.5%	63.7%
Save rate	62.7%	68.1%
Saves, last 5	4.8	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.94	2.43
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	77.0%	81.4%
Passes, last 5	355	436
Fouls, last 5	18.2	7.6
Cards, last 5	2.4	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	17
Home side won	6
Drawn	7
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	28
Goals, away side	21

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 44.4% · Draw 25.7% · Away 29.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

NEC Nijmegen v Excelsior

eredivisie · 16:45 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	9	4
Position last season	3	13
Points this season	6	9
Goal difference this season	+2	+7
Elo rating going in	1,616	1,515
Matches on record, all seasons	385	354
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	12
Goals scored, last 5	2.2	2.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	2.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	1	3
Failed to score, last 10	0	1
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	0	2
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.6	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	3.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	21.2	13.2
Shots on target, last 5	6.4	5.0
Shots per possession	0.311	0.279
On-target shots per possession	0.096	0.110
Inside-box shots per possession	0.192	0.188
Share of shots from inside the box	61.1%	66.5%
Expected goals, last 5	2.83	1.45
Possession, last 5	61.4%	45.2%
Corners, last 5	7.2	4.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.243	0.259
On-target allowed per possession	0.106	0.076
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.177	0.167
Opponents' inside-box share	74.7%	63.1%
Save rate	67.7%	67.3%
Saves, last 5	1.2	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.30	1.41
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.8%	79.8%
Passes, last 5	482	394
Fouls, last 5	11.8	12.4
Cards, last 5	1.4	0.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	14
Home side won	8
Drawn	2
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	28
Goals, away side	14

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 58.4% · Draw 22.8% · Away 18.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Blackburn v Sheffield Utd

championship · 18:45 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	15	13
Position last season	22	13
Points this season	5	6
Goal difference this season	-1	-1
Elo rating going in	1,478	1,522
Matches on record, all seasons	725	682
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	6
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	1	3
Failed to score, last 10	3	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	1
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.0	8.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.2	2.8
Shots per possession	0.223	0.231
On-target shots per possession	0.091	0.086
Inside-box shots per possession	0.148	0.164
Share of shots from inside the box	66.2%	73.3%
Expected goals, last 5	0.93	1.21
Possession, last 5	49.0%	38.8%
Corners, last 5	5.2	3.5
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.283	0.317
On-target allowed per possession	0.084	0.110
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.195	0.216
Opponents' inside-box share	70.7%	68.7%
Save rate	64.5%	65.7%
Saves, last 5	2.0	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.57	1.19
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.3%	62.3%
Passes, last 5	427	297
Fouls, last 5	11.8	12.0
Cards, last 5	2.4	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	3
Drawn	1
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	9
Goals, away side	17

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 31.6% · Draw 27.7% · Away 40.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Cardiff v Stoke City

championship · 18:45 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	22	11
Position last season	2	17
Points this season	3	6
Goal difference this season	-3	-1
Elo rating going in	1,489	1,445
Matches on record, all seasons	683	677
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	6
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	2.0	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	2.0
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	2
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	0	2
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.8	11.8
Shots on target, last 5	6.2	3.8
Shots per possession	0.267	0.231
On-target shots per possession	0.098	0.058
Inside-box shots per possession	0.171	0.158
Share of shots from inside the box	63.0%	71.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.72	0.73
Possession, last 5	65.5%	48.2%
Corners, last 5	8.8	3.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.396	0.249
On-target allowed per possession	0.189	0.091
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.276	0.164
Opponents' inside-box share	70.4%	64.6%
Save rate	67.6%	55.2%
Saves, last 5	4.0	2.5
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.57	1.86
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	85.7%	79.0%
Passes, last 5	513	366
Fouls, last 5	10.8	17.5
Cards, last 5	1.4	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	14
Home side won	4
Drawn	8
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	16
Goals, away side	15

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 45.8% · Draw 26.3% · Away 27.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Southampton v Swansea

championship · 18:45 UK

Finished 3–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	1
Position last season	4	11
Points this season	8	11
Goal difference this season	+5	+6
Elo rating going in	1,616	1,555
Matches on record, all seasons	604	644
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	11
Goals scored, last 5	2.2	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	0.2
Goals scored, last 10	2.0	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	0.6
Clean sheets, last 10	1	5
Failed to score, last 10	1	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	4	8
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.8	11.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	4.8
Shots per possession	0.288	0.218
On-target shots per possession	0.077	0.089
Inside-box shots per possession	0.182	0.129
Share of shots from inside the box	63.0%	59.9%
Expected goals, last 5	2.39	1.53
Possession, last 5	59.2%	60.5%
Corners, last 5	6.5	5.5
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.366	0.280
On-target allowed per possession	0.106	0.080
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.252	0.203
Opponents' inside-box share	67.1%	73.6%
Save rate	72.5%	74.9%
Saves, last 5	2.8	1.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.86	0.99
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	87.7%	79.0%
Passes, last 5	479	525
Fouls, last 5	8.8	9.8
Cards, last 5	1.6	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	16
Home side won	10
Drawn	4
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	22
Goals, away side	7

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 52.3% · Draw 25.0% · Away 22.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Watford v Preston

championship · 18:45 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	18	23
Position last season	16	14
Points this season	5	3
Goal difference this season	-2	-5
Elo rating going in	1,465	1,454
Matches on record, all seasons	650	700
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	3
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	0.5	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	2.2	2.0
Clean sheets, last 10	0	0
Failed to score, last 10	6	2
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.4
Scored away, last 5 there	0.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.0	10.5
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	2.2
Shots per possession	0.283	0.277
On-target shots per possession	0.083	0.084
Inside-box shots per possession	0.189	0.194
Share of shots from inside the box	64.9%	70.3%
Expected goals, last 5	0.87	0.79
Possession, last 5	40.2%	41.5%
Corners, last 5	3.5	3.5
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.272	0.277
On-target allowed per possession	0.094	0.082
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.152	0.178
Opponents' inside-box share	58.9%	63.8%
Save rate	59.8%	62.8%
Saves, last 5	1.8	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.32	1.17
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	76.3%	73.0%
Passes, last 5	330	321
Fouls, last 5	10.8	13.5
Cards, last 5	2.4	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	3
Drawn	5
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	14
Goals, away side	10

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 46.1% · Draw 27.6% · Away 26.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Wrexham v Burnley

championship · 18:45 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	11	24
Position last season	7	19
Points this season	6	2
Goal difference this season	+2	-6
Elo rating going in	1,557	1,555
Matches on record, all seasons	97	623
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	2
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	2.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	2.0
Clean sheets, last 10	4	0
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.8	13.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	3.5
Shots per possession	0.255	0.250
On-target shots per possession	0.082	0.072
Inside-box shots per possession	0.164	0.131
Share of shots from inside the box	62.9%	52.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.52	1.40
Possession, last 5	48.0%	52.8%
Corners, last 5	6.0	5.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.234	0.345
On-target allowed per possession	0.089	0.113
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.154	0.228
Opponents' inside-box share	65.3%	68.4%
Save rate	67.3%	65.3%
Saves, last 5	2.8	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.08	1.59
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	79.7%	85.0%
Passes, last 5	410	470
Fouls, last 5	12.0	10.8
Cards, last 5	1.0	1.8

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 47.2% · Draw 26.2% · Away 26.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Bolton v West Ham

championship · 19:00 UK

Finished 2–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	20	9
Position last season	5	18
Points this season	4	8
Goal difference this season	-5	+4
Elo rating going in	1,473	1,657
Matches on record, all seasons	675	624
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	8
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	2.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	2
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	0	3
Losses in a row	3	0
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.5	17.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	4.8
Shots per possession	0.254	0.284
On-target shots per possession	0.083	0.103
Inside-box shots per possession	0.160	0.211
Share of shots from inside the box	67.6%	73.4%
Expected goals, last 5	0.92	1.63
Possession, last 5	57.5%	61.5%
Corners, last 5	7.5	7.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.223	0.267
On-target allowed per possession	0.079	0.096
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.172	0.173
Opponents' inside-box share	73.9%	63.3%
Save rate	66.7%	60.8%
Saves, last 5	3.2	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.27	1.32
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.0%	87.7%
Passes, last 5	443	520
Fouls, last 5	10.0	7.8
Cards, last 5	1.2	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	2
Drawn	0
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	6
Goals, away side	1

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 18.9% · Draw 22.5% · Away 58.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Borussia Dortmund v Villarreal

champions-league · 19:00 UK

Finished 3–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	16
Position last season	2	3
Points this season	6	2
Goal difference this season	+3	-2
Elo rating going in	1,752	1,683
Matches on record, all seasons	546	574
Recent form
Points, last 5	12	5
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	2.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	2.0	2.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	4	0
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	4	0
Unbeaten run	4	0
Losses in a row	0	2
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	3.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.2	14.8
Shots on target, last 5	5.6	6.4
Shots per possession	0.251	0.242
On-target shots per possession	0.092	0.096
Inside-box shots per possession	0.190	0.162
Share of shots from inside the box	76.6%	66.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.65	2.06
Possession, last 5	50.0%	58.6%
Corners, last 5	3.6	6.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.209	0.291
On-target allowed per possession	0.084	0.092
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.125	0.161
Opponents' inside-box share	59.5%	59.2%
Save rate	72.3%	65.6%
Saves, last 5	3.0	1.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.12	1.17
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	86.0%	88.0%
Passes, last 5	478	562
Fouls, last 5	11.4	10.2
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.8

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 52.9% · Draw 23.9% · Away 23.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

FC Porto v Manchester City

champions-league · 19:00 UK

Finished 0–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	1
Position last season	1	2
Points this season	15	9
Goal difference this season	+10	+5
Elo rating going in	1,911	1,910
Matches on record, all seasons	533	611
Recent form
Points, last 5	15	10
Goals scored, last 5	2.2	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	0.2	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.8	2.1
Goals conceded, last 10	0.5	0.9
Clean sheets, last 10	7	4
Failed to score, last 10	0	0
Wins in a row	6	3
Unbeaten run	6	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	4	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.6	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.2	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.0	15.2
Shots on target, last 5	6.6	5.4
Shots per possession	0.267	0.279
On-target shots per possession	0.103	0.092
Inside-box shots per possession	0.182	0.196
Share of shots from inside the box	68.7%	72.2%
Expected goals, last 5	2.26	1.66
Possession, last 5	54.4%	64.6%
Corners, last 5	7.0	6.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.219	0.284
On-target allowed per possession	0.065	0.090
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.112	0.206
Opponents' inside-box share	48.3%	72.5%
Save rate	73.2%	70.8%
Saves, last 5	1.8	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.90	1.30
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.8%	89.5%
Passes, last 5	451	651
Fouls, last 5	13.8	8.6
Cards, last 5	0.4	1.4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 18.1% · Draw 23.3% · Away 58.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Lille v Real Betis

champions-league · 19:00 UK

Finished 2–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	3
Position last season	3	5
Points this season	7	9
Goal difference this season	+3	+0
Elo rating going in	1,700	1,722
Matches on record, all seasons	589	536
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	12
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	0.5	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	7	4
Failed to score, last 10	2	0
Wins in a row	1	1
Unbeaten run	3	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	5	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.8	16.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.6	5.8
Shots per possession	0.225	0.298
On-target shots per possession	0.107	0.109
Inside-box shots per possession	0.150	0.162
Share of shots from inside the box	66.6%	52.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.11	1.31
Possession, last 5	47.0%	54.4%
Corners, last 5	2.2	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.213	0.302
On-target allowed per possession	0.066	0.126
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.137	0.210
Opponents' inside-box share	67.8%	68.2%
Save rate	75.4%	72.4%
Saves, last 5	3.6	4.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.05	1.96
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	83.5%	88.0%
Passes, last 5	428	524
Fouls, last 5	10.4	9.8
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.8

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 42.9% · Draw 27.5% · Away 29.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Real Madrid v Inter

champions-league · 19:00 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	1
Position last season	2	1
Points this season	9	9
Goal difference this season	+7	+5
Elo rating going in	1,858	1,867
Matches on record, all seasons	612	611
Recent form
Points, last 5	12	11
Goals scored, last 5	2.8	2.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	2.0	2.6
Goals conceded, last 10	0.8	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	4	4
Failed to score, last 10	2	0
Wins in a row	0	3
Unbeaten run	0	13
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	4	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.6	20.0
Shots on target, last 5	8.0	6.2
Shots per possession	0.249	0.270
On-target shots per possession	0.107	0.094
Inside-box shots per possession	0.185	0.201
Share of shots from inside the box	75.3%	75.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.91	2.33
Possession, last 5	61.0%	65.6%
Corners, last 5	6.2	6.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.287	0.305
On-target allowed per possession	0.080	0.088
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.173	0.192
Opponents' inside-box share	60.8%	62.6%
Save rate	73.5%	69.8%
Saves, last 5	1.6	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.65	1.03
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	92.2%	89.2%
Passes, last 5	550	614
Fouls, last 5	7.2	8.0
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 59.6% · Draw 22.0% · Away 18.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.