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The data behind the ratings

Friday 11 September 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

Beşiktaş v Erzurumspor FK

super-lig · 17:00 UK

Finished 3–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	14
Position last season	4	—
Points this season	9	4
Goal difference this season	+5	-6
Elo rating going in	1,725	1,509
Matches on record, all seasons	538	78
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	7
Goals scored, last 5	2.2	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.9	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	3
Wins in a row	2	1
Unbeaten run	2	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	6	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.6	9.6
Shots on target, last 5	6.6	3.8
Shots per possession	0.295	0.272
On-target shots per possession	0.109	0.090
Inside-box shots per possession	0.186	0.150
Share of shots from inside the box	61.7%	54.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.64	0.59
Possession, last 5	58.0%	45.0%
Corners, last 5	6.6	3.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.300	0.259
On-target allowed per possession	0.091	0.086
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.159	0.179
Opponents' inside-box share	47.5%	70.0%
Save rate	65.5%	62.2%
Saves, last 5	1.6	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.98	1.50
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	86.2%	84.2%
Passes, last 5	473	411
Fouls, last 5	15.0	11.6
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	3
Drawn	1
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	12
Goals, away side	4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 77.5% · Draw 15.0% · Away 7.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

AZ Alkmaar v Willem II

eredivisie · 18:00 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	16
Position last season	7	—
Points this season	15	1
Goal difference this season	+11	-9
Elo rating going in	1,676	1,384
Matches on record, all seasons	554	376
Recent form
Points, last 5	15	1
Goals scored, last 5	3.2	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	3.2
Goals scored, last 10	2.5	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	2.5
Clean sheets, last 10	4	0
Failed to score, last 10	1	1
Wins in a row	5	0
Unbeaten run	11	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	5	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.8
Scored away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	19.4	13.0
Shots on target, last 5	8.0	2.8
Shots per possession	0.338	0.309
On-target shots per possession	0.125	0.086
Inside-box shots per possession	0.207	0.211
Share of shots from inside the box	62.5%	68.3%
Expected goals, last 5	2.83	1.53
Possession, last 5	57.0%	44.4%
Corners, last 5	8.8	5.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.233	0.267
On-target allowed per possession	0.085	0.111
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.142	0.184
Opponents' inside-box share	62.3%	70.3%
Save rate	71.4%	63.8%
Saves, last 5	1.8	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.01	2.23
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	85.0%	73.5%
Passes, last 5	503	362
Fouls, last 5	11.0	11.6
Cards, last 5	1.0	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	22
Home side won	10
Drawn	5
Away side won	7
Goals, home side	34
Goals, away side	26

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 83.8% · Draw 10.2% · Away 6.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Burgos v AD Ceuta FC

laliga-2 · 18:30 UK

Finished 3–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	12	22
Position last season	7	9
Points this season	5	0
Goal difference this season	+0	-11
Elo rating going in	1,516	1,440
Matches on record, all seasons	214	46
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	3
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	0.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	2.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	0.8
Goals conceded, last 10	0.6	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	6	3
Failed to score, last 10	4	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	4
Days since last match	5	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.8	10.8
Shots on target, last 5	3.4	3.0
Shots per possession	0.256	0.207
On-target shots per possession	0.082	0.066
Inside-box shots per possession	0.182	0.130
Share of shots from inside the box	69.5%	62.7%
Expected goals, last 5	—	1.19
Possession, last 5	49.0%	49.4%
Corners, last 5	3.8	5.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.285	0.271
On-target allowed per possession	0.077	0.103
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.165	0.193
Opponents' inside-box share	55.1%	70.5%
Save rate	77.8%	64.4%
Saves, last 5	3.6	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	—	1.05
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	78.0%	83.0%
Passes, last 5	407	405
Fouls, last 5	14.4	15.2
Cards, last 5	2.0	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	0
Drawn	1
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	1
Goals, away side	2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 58.1% · Draw 23.9% · Away 18.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Union Berlin v FC Schalke 04

bundesliga · 18:30 UK

Finished 1–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	14	14
Position last season	11	—
Points this season	1	1
Goal difference this season	-4	-3
Elo rating going in	1,522	1,448
Matches on record, all seasons	242	410
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	2
Goals scored, last 5	2.4	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	3.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	2.3	2.6
Clean sheets, last 10	1	1
Failed to score, last 10	2	5
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	6	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	3.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.8	9.8
Shots on target, last 5	6.2	2.8
Shots per possession	0.270	0.252
On-target shots per possession	0.103	0.097
Inside-box shots per possession	0.182	0.160
Share of shots from inside the box	65.0%	62.8%
Expected goals, last 5	2.36	1.05
Possession, last 5	47.8%	41.2%
Corners, last 5	4.0	3.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.240	0.311
On-target allowed per possession	0.086	0.137
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.163	0.223
Opponents' inside-box share	66.1%	71.9%
Save rate	56.1%	64.5%
Saves, last 5	2.2	5.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.33	3.28
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	77.8%	73.8%
Passes, last 5	401	338
Fouls, last 5	9.2	8.6
Cards, last 5	2.0	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	1
Drawn	4
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	9
Goals, away side	5

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 41.2% · Draw 26.7% · Away 32.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Rennes v Marseille

ligue-1 · 18:45 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	10
Position last season	6	5
Points this season	7	3
Goal difference this season	+2	+1
Elo rating going in	1,650	1,644
Matches on record, all seasons	589	589
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	9
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	2.3	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.8	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	0	3
Wins in a row	2	0
Unbeaten run	3	0
Losses in a row	0	2
Days since last match	5	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	2.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.8	15.2
Shots on target, last 5	5.4	6.0
Shots per possession	0.316	0.301
On-target shots per possession	0.113	0.115
Inside-box shots per possession	0.219	0.203
Share of shots from inside the box	67.7%	66.5%
Expected goals, last 5	2.00	1.81
Possession, last 5	51.4%	57.4%
Corners, last 5	6.6	3.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.340	0.270
On-target allowed per possession	0.116	0.093
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.227	0.190
Opponents' inside-box share	62.0%	71.3%
Save rate	62.9%	62.2%
Saves, last 5	3.2	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.25	1.33
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.5%	86.2%
Passes, last 5	450	553
Fouls, last 5	12.0	11.8
Cards, last 5	1.4	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	9
Drawn	8
Away side won	15
Goals, home side	35
Goals, away side	47

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 46.1% · Draw 24.4% · Away 29.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Venezia v Fiorentina

serie-a · 18:45 UK

Finished 2–4. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	18	20
Position last season	—	13
Points this season	0	0
Goal difference this season	-5	-8
Elo rating going in	1,463	1,602
Matches on record, all seasons	79	611
Recent form
Points, last 5	0	4
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	2.6	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	0.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.9	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	1	4
Failed to score, last 10	4	5
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	5	3
Days since last match	5	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.0	13.8
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	4.4
Shots per possession	0.233	0.264
On-target shots per possession	0.079	0.079
Inside-box shots per possession	0.152	0.154
Share of shots from inside the box	66.1%	60.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.12	0.87
Possession, last 5	54.8%	44.2%
Corners, last 5	4.8	3.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.299	0.260
On-target allowed per possession	0.100	0.097
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.189	0.169
Opponents' inside-box share	62.9%	63.5%
Save rate	61.6%	72.5%
Saves, last 5	3.0	4.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.95	1.80
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	82.2%	82.2%
Passes, last 5	438	375
Fouls, last 5	10.4	12.2
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	2
Drawn	1
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	3
Goals, away side	2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 30.8% · Draw 28.5% · Away 40.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Sevilla v Valencia

la-liga · 19:00 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	6	20
Position last season	15	9
Points this season	7	1
Goal difference this season	+1	-8
Elo rating going in	1,578	1,599
Matches on record, all seasons	612	612
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	3
Days since last match	5	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.2	11.6
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	3.4
Shots per possession	0.298	0.291
On-target shots per possession	0.097	0.085
Inside-box shots per possession	0.154	0.187
Share of shots from inside the box	50.7%	65.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.12	1.14
Possession, last 5	43.0%	38.2%
Corners, last 5	3.0	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.197	0.217
On-target allowed per possession	0.071	0.074
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.130	0.136
Opponents' inside-box share	65.3%	64.4%
Save rate	65.6%	66.2%
Saves, last 5	2.8	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.44	1.07
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	78.2%	81.5%
Passes, last 5	342	377
Fouls, last 5	17.4	10.0
Cards, last 5	3.4	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	12
Drawn	10
Away side won	10
Goals, home side	32
Goals, away side	35

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 46.3% · Draw 29.5% · Away 24.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

West Ham v Wrexham

championship · 19:00 UK

Finished 6–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	13
Position last season	18	7
Points this season	11	7
Goal difference this season	+5	+2
Elo rating going in	1,663	1,555
Matches on record, all seasons	625	98
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	6
Goals scored, last 5	2.4	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.8	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	2	4
Failed to score, last 10	2	1
Wins in a row	3	0
Unbeaten run	4	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.2	11.0
Shots on target, last 5	6.0	3.0
Shots per possession	0.284	0.279
On-target shots per possession	0.111	0.092
Inside-box shots per possession	0.213	0.190
Share of shots from inside the box	74.5%	69.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.84	1.50
Possession, last 5	60.2%	52.8%
Corners, last 5	6.8	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.274	0.241
On-target allowed per possession	0.103	0.079
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.179	0.150
Opponents' inside-box share	63.8%	63.0%
Save rate	62.8%	64.9%
Saves, last 5	2.5	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.94	1.17
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	88.0%	80.0%
Passes, last 5	510	474
Fouls, last 5	8.5	11.8
Cards, last 5	1.2	1.0

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 61.4% · Draw 21.7% · Away 16.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.