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The data behind the ratings

Saturday 12 September 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

Bolton v Cardiff

championship · 11:30 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	22	20
Position last season	5	2
Points this season	4	4
Goal difference this season	-6	-3
Elo rating going in	1,467	1,486
Matches on record, all seasons	676	684
Recent form
Points, last 5	1	3
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	2.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	3	1
Failed to score, last 10	3	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	4	0
Days since last match	4	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.8	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.2	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.0	21.5
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	7.2
Shots per possession	0.248	0.282
On-target shots per possession	0.090	0.104
Inside-box shots per possession	0.162	0.187
Share of shots from inside the box	69.6%	64.9%
Expected goals, last 5	0.83	2.12
Possession, last 5	56.5%	66.5%
Corners, last 5	7.2	8.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.218	0.370
On-target allowed per possession	0.090	0.178
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.175	0.250
Opponents' inside-box share	76.7%	69.1%
Save rate	66.1%	66.2%
Saves, last 5	3.8	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.50	1.58
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.5%	84.0%
Passes, last 5	449	519
Fouls, last 5	8.8	9.8
Cards, last 5	0.8	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	5
Drawn	1
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	15
Goals, away side	11

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 35.8% · Draw 25.8% · Away 38.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Derby v Birmingham

championship · 11:30 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	21	15
Position last season	8	10
Points this season	4	7
Goal difference this season	-6	+0
Elo rating going in	1,498	1,546
Matches on record, all seasons	706	736
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	6
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	2	1
Failed to score, last 10	3	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	2	1
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.6	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.0	11.8
Shots on target, last 5	2.5	3.5
Shots per possession	0.245	0.245
On-target shots per possession	0.078	0.084
Inside-box shots per possession	0.173	0.173
Share of shots from inside the box	67.4%	69.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.10	1.92
Possession, last 5	49.5%	51.5%
Corners, last 5	7.2	7.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.312	0.243
On-target allowed per possession	0.120	0.080
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.205	0.162
Opponents' inside-box share	68.0%	68.8%
Save rate	71.0%	66.1%
Saves, last 5	4.2	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.66	1.42
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	77.5%	71.0%
Passes, last 5	412	362
Fouls, last 5	14.0	13.2
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	24
Home side won	11
Drawn	9
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	46
Goals, away side	33

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 25.2% · Draw 29.0% · Away 45.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Leyton Orient v Wycombe

league-one · 11:30 UK

Finished 2–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	9	23
Position last season	20	11
Points this season	7	3
Goal difference this season	+4	-5
Elo rating going in	1,372	1,398
Matches on record, all seasons	333	415
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	3
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	2.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	2.4
Clean sheets, last 10	3	0
Failed to score, last 10	3	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	2	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	7.7	10.0
Shots on target, last 5	3.0	5.7
Shots per possession	0.191	0.235
On-target shots per possession	0.055	0.105
Inside-box shots per possession	0.118	0.173
Share of shots from inside the box	61.3%	74.4%
Expected goals, last 5	0.83	1.42
Possession, last 5	44.3%	51.7%
Corners, last 5	3.0	5.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.334	0.281
On-target allowed per possession	0.120	0.104
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.217	0.161
Opponents' inside-box share	65.2%	57.1%
Save rate	74.9%	54.0%
Saves, last 5	3.7	2.3
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.68	1.05
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	63.5%	78.0%
Passes, last 5	330	382
Fouls, last 5	13.7	9.0
Cards, last 5	2.2	0.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	2
Drawn	1
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	9
Goals, away side	17

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 39.4% · Draw 26.8% · Away 33.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Notts County v Bradford

league-one · 11:30 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	12	4
Position last season	—	4
Points this season	7	9
Goal difference this season	+1	+1
Elo rating going in	1,408	1,405
Matches on record, all seasons	189	334
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	9
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	0.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	0.9
Clean sheets, last 10	0	3
Failed to score, last 10	1	3
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	5	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.7	7.7
Shots on target, last 5	5.0	3.7
Shots per possession	0.244	0.184
On-target shots per possession	0.105	0.055
Inside-box shots per possession	0.162	0.121
Share of shots from inside the box	60.0%	67.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.54	0.74
Possession, last 5	45.7%	48.3%
Corners, last 5	5.3	6.3
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.189	0.237
On-target allowed per possession	0.067	0.052
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.137	0.148
Opponents' inside-box share	65.9%	63.5%
Save rate	61.5%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	2.0	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.02	1.03
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	75.5%	66.0%
Passes, last 5	355	320
Fouls, last 5	15.3	13.3
Cards, last 5	1.2	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	1
Drawn	2
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	5
Goals, away side	3

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 33.1% · Draw 28.4% · Away 38.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

West Brom v QPR

championship · 11:30 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	5
Position last season	19	15
Points this season	13	11
Goal difference this season	+3	+3
Elo rating going in	1,522	1,493
Matches on record, all seasons	674	675
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	8
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	0.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	0.8	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	5	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	5
Wins in a row	2	0
Unbeaten run	3	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	1.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	1.4
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.0	16.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	5.5
Shots per possession	0.199	0.286
On-target shots per possession	0.087	0.108
Inside-box shots per possession	0.150	0.178
Share of shots from inside the box	76.5%	60.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.52	1.62
Possession, last 5	47.2%	56.0%
Corners, last 5	4.2	9.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.248	0.260
On-target allowed per possession	0.076	0.087
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.179	0.154
Opponents' inside-box share	70.6%	64.0%
Save rate	80.5%	65.6%
Saves, last 5	3.0	1.5
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.80	0.57
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	88.5%	84.0%
Passes, last 5	453	512
Fouls, last 5	10.2	6.2
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	20
Home side won	12
Drawn	4
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	40
Goals, away side	27

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 44.2% · Draw 28.1% · Away 27.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

FC Andorra v Real Sociedad II

laliga-2 · 12:00 UK

Finished 1–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	17	10
Position last season	13	15
Points this season	3	5
Goal difference this season	+0	+0
Elo rating going in	1,424	1,398
Matches on record, all seasons	130	88
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	6
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	1	1
Failed to score, last 10	5	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	3
Losses in a row	3	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	19.2	10.2
Shots on target, last 5	5.6	3.4
Shots per possession	0.270	0.266
On-target shots per possession	0.094	0.087
Inside-box shots per possession	0.165	0.165
Share of shots from inside the box	60.7%	63.0%
Expected goals, last 5	—	1.36
Possession, last 5	67.2%	43.6%
Corners, last 5	3.6	4.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.245	0.226
On-target allowed per possession	0.110	0.074
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.158	0.151
Opponents' inside-box share	61.8%	66.3%
Save rate	68.9%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	2.0	3.5
Expected goals conceded, last 5	—	0.71
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	86.8%	76.0%
Passes, last 5	562	374
Fouls, last 5	16.8	15.2
Cards, last 5	2.6	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	0
Drawn	0
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	1
Goals, away side	5

Racing Santander v Alaves

la-liga · 12:00 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	11	2
Position last season	1	14
Points this season	4	10
Goal difference this season	-1	+7
Elo rating going in	1,553	1,611
Matches on record, all seasons	292	392
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	10
Goals scored, last 5	2.2	2.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	2.2	1.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	1	4
Failed to score, last 10	2	0
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	0	4
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.2	14.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	6.0
Shots per possession	0.309	0.299
On-target shots per possession	0.133	0.108
Inside-box shots per possession	0.202	0.189
Share of shots from inside the box	65.8%	62.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.86	1.52
Possession, last 5	47.4%	45.8%
Corners, last 5	5.2	6.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.250	0.169
On-target allowed per possession	0.087	0.062
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.166	0.115
Opponents' inside-box share	68.2%	65.7%
Save rate	65.1%	67.9%
Saves, last 5	3.6	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.07	0.81
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	82.5%	79.2%
Passes, last 5	421	323
Fouls, last 5	14.0	13.6
Cards, last 5	1.8	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	0
Drawn	1
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	1
Goals, away side	4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 39.4% · Draw 27.1% · Away 33.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Genoa v Frosinone

serie-a · 13:00 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	19	4
Position last season	16	—
Points this season	0	6
Goal difference this season	-6	+3
Elo rating going in	1,552	1,484
Matches on record, all seasons	573	117
Recent form
Points, last 5	0	9
Goals scored, last 5	0.4	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	0.6	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	2	5
Failed to score, last 10	6	5
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	0	2
Losses in a row	5	0
Days since last match	8	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	0.8	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	2.2	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.4	14.6
Shots on target, last 5	1.6	5.2
Shots per possession	0.197	0.347
On-target shots per possession	0.052	0.129
Inside-box shots per possession	0.117	0.213
Share of shots from inside the box	59.5%	60.9%
Expected goals, last 5	0.79	1.09
Possession, last 5	54.8%	40.6%
Corners, last 5	4.2	5.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.257	0.265
On-target allowed per possession	0.088	0.067
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.164	0.152
Opponents' inside-box share	61.4%	56.2%
Save rate	70.4%	68.9%
Saves, last 5	3.0	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.21	1.42
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	86.2%	73.0%
Passes, last 5	454	282
Fouls, last 5	7.0	14.6
Cards, last 5	1.2	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	2
Drawn	3
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	10
Goals, away side	6

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 44.0% · Draw 28.6% · Away 27.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

1899 Hoffenheim v VfB Stuttgart

bundesliga · 13:30 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	15	7
Position last season	5	4
Points this season	0	3
Goal difference this season	-2	-1
Elo rating going in	1,586	1,667
Matches on record, all seasons	546	482
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	8
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	2.6
Goals conceded, last 5	2.6	2.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	2.5
Goals conceded, last 10	2.4	2.1
Clean sheets, last 10	1	1
Failed to score, last 10	2	1
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	3	0
Days since last match	7	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.8	2.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.8	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.2	16.0
Shots on target, last 5	5.2	6.6
Shots per possession	0.260	0.300
On-target shots per possession	0.085	0.129
Inside-box shots per possession	0.157	0.192
Share of shots from inside the box	61.4%	63.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.84	1.70
Possession, last 5	58.6%	49.0%
Corners, last 5	7.6	6.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.302	0.311
On-target allowed per possession	0.124	0.133
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.220	0.211
Opponents' inside-box share	74.8%	67.7%
Save rate	56.5%	64.2%
Saves, last 5	2.2	4.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.39	2.38
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	83.8%	79.0%
Passes, last 5	503	412
Fouls, last 5	12.8	11.2
Cards, last 5	3.4	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	28
Home side won	8
Drawn	10
Away side won	10
Goals, home side	42
Goals, away side	48

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 41.7% · Draw 23.7% · Away 34.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Borussia Dortmund v SC Paderborn 07

bundesliga · 13:30 UK

Finished 3–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	13
Position last season	2	—
Points this season	6	1
Goal difference this season	+3	-1
Elo rating going in	1,743	1,406
Matches on record, all seasons	546	72
Recent form
Points, last 5	12	5
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	2.0	0.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	2.1
Clean sheets, last 10	4	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	4
Wins in a row	4	0
Unbeaten run	4	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	3.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.2	16.4
Shots on target, last 5	5.6	3.8
Shots per possession	0.251	0.292
On-target shots per possession	0.092	0.069
Inside-box shots per possession	0.190	0.165
Share of shots from inside the box	76.6%	58.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.65	0.76
Possession, last 5	50.0%	50.2%
Corners, last 5	3.6	5.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.209	0.303
On-target allowed per possession	0.084	0.121
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.125	0.206
Opponents' inside-box share	59.5%	69.8%
Save rate	72.3%	67.9%
Saves, last 5	3.0	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.12	1.24
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	86.0%	79.8%
Passes, last 5	478	471
Fouls, last 5	11.4	11.4
Cards, last 5	1.8	2.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	2
Drawn	2
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	14
Goals, away side	6

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 78.0% · Draw 13.2% · Away 8.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

FC Augsburg v Bayer Leverkusen

bundesliga · 13:30 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	5
Position last season	9	6
Points this season	6	3
Goal difference this season	+6	+3
Elo rating going in	1,573	1,703
Matches on record, all seasons	512	546
Recent form
Points, last 5	12	7
Goals scored, last 5	2.6	2.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	2.1	2.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	0
Wins in a row	2	1
Unbeaten run	2	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	6	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	3.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.2	19.4
Shots on target, last 5	7.6	7.2
Shots per possession	0.401	0.308
On-target shots per possession	0.168	0.113
Inside-box shots per possession	0.278	0.220
Share of shots from inside the box	68.2%	69.2%
Expected goals, last 5	2.32	2.54
Possession, last 5	41.4%	59.4%
Corners, last 5	5.8	7.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.297	0.346
On-target allowed per possession	0.106	0.134
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.197	0.227
Opponents' inside-box share	65.9%	63.8%
Save rate	70.7%	62.1%
Saves, last 5	4.4	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.93	1.78
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	75.0%	87.0%
Passes, last 5	371	530
Fouls, last 5	8.0	9.8
Cards, last 5	1.2	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	30
Home side won	4
Drawn	7
Away side won	19
Goals, home side	27
Goals, away side	61

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 24.2% · Draw 23.1% · Away 52.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

FSV Mainz 05 v Eintracht Frankfurt

bundesliga · 13:30 UK

Finished 1–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	13
Position last season	10	8
Points this season	4	1
Goal difference this season	+5	-3
Elo rating going in	1,581	1,575
Matches on record, all seasons	546	512
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	2
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	2.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.8	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	2.3
Clean sheets, last 10	3	0
Failed to score, last 10	2	0
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	3	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	6	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.6
Scored away, last 5 there	2.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.0	13.2
Shots on target, last 5	6.0	5.4
Shots per possession	0.340	0.249
On-target shots per possession	0.136	0.094
Inside-box shots per possession	0.255	0.154
Share of shots from inside the box	75.5%	61.0%
Expected goals, last 5	2.27	1.43
Possession, last 5	49.0%	55.4%
Corners, last 5	6.6	5.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.216	0.350
On-target allowed per possession	0.075	0.162
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.152	0.251
Opponents' inside-box share	69.7%	71.5%
Save rate	67.8%	69.0%
Saves, last 5	2.6	4.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.70	1.45
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	82.0%	81.5%
Passes, last 5	426	471
Fouls, last 5	11.6	11.0
Cards, last 5	1.6	2.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	30
Home side won	11
Drawn	9
Away side won	10
Goals, home side	40
Goals, away side	39

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 49.6% · Draw 23.6% · Away 26.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

SC Freiburg v Borussia Mönchengladbach

bundesliga · 13:30 UK

Finished 5–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	18
Position last season	7	12
Points this season	6	0
Goal difference this season	+4	-4
Elo rating going in	1,606	1,522
Matches on record, all seasons	512	546
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	6
Goals scored, last 5	2.4	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.9	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	1	3
Wins in a row	3	0
Unbeaten run	3	0
Losses in a row	0	2
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.4	15.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.2	4.8
Shots per possession	0.273	0.264
On-target shots per possession	0.094	0.087
Inside-box shots per possession	0.182	0.179
Share of shots from inside the box	66.6%	67.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.17	1.36
Possession, last 5	50.2%	52.6%
Corners, last 5	3.2	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.258	0.310
On-target allowed per possession	0.084	0.145
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.153	0.221
Opponents' inside-box share	60.2%	71.0%
Save rate	67.2%	73.8%
Saves, last 5	3.0	5.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.13	2.16
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.0%	84.2%
Passes, last 5	437	456
Fouls, last 5	9.8	13.0
Cards, last 5	1.4	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	30
Home side won	13
Drawn	10
Away side won	7
Goals, home side	48
Goals, away side	33

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 56.7% · Draw 22.6% · Away 20.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

AFC Wimbledon v Doncaster

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	15	22
Position last season	19	14
Points this season	7	3
Goal difference this season	-3	-2
Elo rating going in	1,315	1,354
Matches on record, all seasons	316	501
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	3
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	0.6	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	4	2
Failed to score, last 10	5	2
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	5	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.2	13.7
Shots on target, last 5	3.0	3.3
Shots per possession	0.201	0.270
On-target shots per possession	0.063	0.100
Inside-box shots per possession	0.114	0.198
Share of shots from inside the box	58.9%	70.9%
Expected goals, last 5	0.52	1.01
Possession, last 5	49.5%	50.0%
Corners, last 5	5.8	7.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.264	0.257
On-target allowed per possession	0.090	0.089
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.196	0.184
Opponents' inside-box share	74.3%	69.3%
Save rate	68.8%	71.1%
Saves, last 5	3.0	3.3
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.84	0.45
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	66.0%	63.0%
Passes, last 5	319	335
Fouls, last 5	15.0	14.0
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	11
Home side won	5
Drawn	3
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	15
Goals, away side	12

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 36.2% · Draw 27.2% · Away 36.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest

premier-league · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	17	15
Position last season	4	16
Points this season	1	2
Goal difference this season	-5	-1
Elo rating going in	1,776	1,698
Matches on record, all seasons	641	664
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	3
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	4	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	1	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.4	12.4
Shots on target, last 5	3.0	3.2
Shots per possession	0.219	0.283
On-target shots per possession	0.069	0.095
Inside-box shots per possession	0.131	0.198
Share of shots from inside the box	58.1%	71.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.07	1.64
Possession, last 5	46.4%	44.6%
Corners, last 5	3.2	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.294	0.265
On-target allowed per possession	0.108	0.076
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.166	0.155
Opponents' inside-box share	59.7%	58.9%
Save rate	68.6%	73.7%
Saves, last 5	2.6	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.90	1.91
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	82.5%	77.2%
Passes, last 5	414	370
Fouls, last 5	9.4	12.6
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	14
Home side won	7
Drawn	4
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	28
Goals, away side	21

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 41.7% · Draw 27.9% · Away 30.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Blackburn v Millwall

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 3–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	18	7
Position last season	22	3
Points this season	5	9
Goal difference this season	-2	+2
Elo rating going in	1,467	1,592
Matches on record, all seasons	726	703
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	9
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	1	5
Failed to score, last 10	3	3
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	4	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.0	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.4	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.2	17.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.2	5.0
Shots per possession	0.227	0.302
On-target shots per possession	0.092	0.092
Inside-box shots per possession	0.153	0.216
Share of shots from inside the box	67.2%	72.1%
Expected goals, last 5	0.98	2.23
Possession, last 5	53.5%	51.2%
Corners, last 5	5.8	7.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.285	0.246
On-target allowed per possession	0.091	0.073
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.187	0.150
Opponents' inside-box share	65.5%	58.3%
Save rate	63.4%	68.7%
Saves, last 5	2.0	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.33	1.61
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.0%	80.0%
Passes, last 5	486	375
Fouls, last 5	10.0	12.2
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	22
Home side won	13
Drawn	6
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	37
Goals, away side	21

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 33.9% · Draw 27.9% · Away 38.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Blackpool v Bromley

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	11	21
Position last season	13	—
Points this season	7	4
Goal difference this season	+2	-11
Elo rating going in	1,420	1,371
Matches on record, all seasons	682	5
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	3.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	—
Goals conceded, last 10	0.9	—
Clean sheets, last 10	4	1
Failed to score, last 10	1	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	2	3
Days since last match	7	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.3
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.7
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.2	8.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	2.3
Shots per possession	0.313	0.210
On-target shots per possession	0.124	0.062
Inside-box shots per possession	0.221	0.132
Share of shots from inside the box	68.2%	62.7%
Expected goals, last 5	2.21	1.05
Possession, last 5	42.2%	38.7%
Corners, last 5	3.0	3.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.291	0.255
On-target allowed per possession	0.081	0.129
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.175	0.187
Opponents' inside-box share	57.9%	72.4%
Save rate	75.3%	63.7%
Saves, last 5	5.0	5.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.31	2.64
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	69.5%	62.0%
Passes, last 5	358	258
Fouls, last 5	9.2	16.0
Cards, last 5	1.2	0.8

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 54.2% · Draw 25.2% · Away 20.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Bournemouth v Brentford

premier-league · 14:00 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	14	5
Position last season	6	9
Points this season	2	5
Goal difference this season	-1	+3
Elo rating going in	1,768	1,738
Matches on record, all seasons	623	664
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	0	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	2	5
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.2	17.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	4.0
Shots per possession	0.264	0.300
On-target shots per possession	0.091	0.083
Inside-box shots per possession	0.157	0.221
Share of shots from inside the box	60.9%	71.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.49	2.20
Possession, last 5	47.2%	48.2%
Corners, last 5	5.2	5.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.237	0.293
On-target allowed per possession	0.074	0.100
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.178	0.183
Opponents' inside-box share	76.2%	61.8%
Save rate	66.1%	68.6%
Saves, last 5	3.0	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.82	1.67
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.5%	80.0%
Passes, last 5	409	388
Fouls, last 5	12.4	13.0
Cards, last 5	2.6	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	18
Home side won	3
Drawn	6
Away side won	9
Goals, home side	16
Goals, away side	27

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 37.5% · Draw 26.5% · Away 36.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Cambridge United v Reading

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	6	8
Position last season	—	12
Points this season	8	7
Goal difference this season	+1	+6
Elo rating going in	1,321	1,419
Matches on record, all seasons	189	689
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	2.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	0	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	3
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	2	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.7	16.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.3	4.0
Shots per possession	0.249	0.253
On-target shots per possession	0.092	0.075
Inside-box shots per possession	0.180	0.181
Share of shots from inside the box	70.9%	73.1%
Expected goals, last 5	0.85	1.22
Possession, last 5	51.7%	51.5%
Corners, last 5	5.3	5.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.198	0.217
On-target allowed per possession	0.083	0.092
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.116	0.131
Opponents' inside-box share	58.7%	63.8%
Save rate	63.1%	68.9%
Saves, last 5	1.7	2.5
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.87	0.67
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	71.5%	80.5%
Passes, last 5	390	405
Fouls, last 5	12.3	10.8
Cards, last 5	1.2	0.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	1
Drawn	0
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	2
Goals, away side	10

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 35.6% · Draw 27.6% · Away 36.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Charlton v Portsmouth

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	6	13
Position last season	20	18
Points this season	11	6
Goal difference this season	-1	-1
Elo rating going in	1,494	1,487
Matches on record, all seasons	704	504
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	6
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	1
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	1	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	3	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.2	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.8	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.0	14.5
Shots on target, last 5	2.5	4.8
Shots per possession	0.312	0.251
On-target shots per possession	0.099	0.079
Inside-box shots per possession	0.204	0.156
Share of shots from inside the box	64.5%	58.2%
Expected goals, last 5	0.72	1.51
Possession, last 5	36.0%	51.2%
Corners, last 5	4.8	6.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.244	0.257
On-target allowed per possession	0.072	0.083
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.157	0.187
Opponents' inside-box share	64.7%	72.3%
Save rate	69.3%	68.4%
Saves, last 5	3.8	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.94	1.65
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	74.0%	77.0%
Passes, last 5	290	350
Fouls, last 5	11.8	11.0
Cards, last 5	1.4	0.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	14
Home side won	7
Drawn	3
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	22
Goals, away side	17

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 32.3% · Draw 29.7% · Away 37.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Chelsea v Hull City

premier-league · 14:00 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	2
Position last season	10	6
Points this season	6	7
Goal difference this season	+1	+3
Elo rating going in	1,755	1,585
Matches on record, all seasons	611	675
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	13
Goals scored, last 5	2.2	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	0.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	2.1	0.6
Clean sheets, last 10	0	6
Failed to score, last 10	3	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	7
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	6	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.0	9.4
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	3.8
Shots per possession	0.299	0.278
On-target shots per possession	0.090	0.105
Inside-box shots per possession	0.188	0.176
Share of shots from inside the box	57.8%	63.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.55	1.20
Possession, last 5	42.0%	30.0%
Corners, last 5	3.2	3.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.238	0.229
On-target allowed per possession	0.104	0.061
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.181	0.133
Opponents' inside-box share	73.5%	60.3%
Save rate	66.2%	75.3%
Saves, last 5	4.6	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.62	1.19
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	78.5%	66.8%
Passes, last 5	374	253
Fouls, last 5	10.4	8.6
Cards, last 5	3.6	2.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	6
Drawn	0
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	13
Goals, away side	2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 77.4% · Draw 15.2% · Away 7.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Crystal Palace v Ipswich

premier-league · 14:00 UK

Finished 2–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	13	13
Position last season	15	2
Points this season	3	3
Goal difference this season	-4	-4
Elo rating going in	1,697	1,620
Matches on record, all seasons	592	677
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	2.4	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	2.3	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	1	3
Failed to score, last 10	4	3
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	2
Days since last match	7	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.8	13.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	5.8
Shots per possession	0.256	0.268
On-target shots per possession	0.084	0.105
Inside-box shots per possession	0.191	0.177
Share of shots from inside the box	76.3%	67.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.33	2.05
Possession, last 5	40.6%	44.8%
Corners, last 5	2.0	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.275	0.278
On-target allowed per possession	0.095	0.110
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.204	0.169
Opponents' inside-box share	73.5%	61.1%
Save rate	60.7%	68.0%
Saves, last 5	3.6	4.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.71	1.80
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	79.0%	80.0%
Passes, last 5	380	380
Fouls, last 5	8.8	11.4
Cards, last 5	1.0	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	4
Drawn	1
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	9
Goals, away side	4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 50.6% · Draw 25.0% · Away 24.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Eyüpspor v Rizespor

super-lig · 14:00 UK

Finished 0–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	16	11
Position last season	15	8
Points this season	3	6
Goal difference this season	-4	-1
Elo rating going in	1,557	1,595
Matches on record, all seasons	74	394
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	2	1
Failed to score, last 10	3	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	1
Days since last match	6	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	8.2	18.8
Shots on target, last 5	2.6	5.4
Shots per possession	0.223	0.297
On-target shots per possession	0.086	0.090
Inside-box shots per possession	0.112	0.160
Share of shots from inside the box	48.9%	54.6%
Expected goals, last 5	0.58	1.63
Possession, last 5	43.0%	54.6%
Corners, last 5	2.0	6.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.247	0.274
On-target allowed per possession	0.074	0.104
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.145	0.167
Opponents' inside-box share	58.5%	61.6%
Save rate	69.8%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	3.2	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.02	1.10
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	78.8%	85.6%
Passes, last 5	357	460
Fouls, last 5	13.6	11.2
Cards, last 5	2.4	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	1
Drawn	0
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	5
Goals, away side	6

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 23.1% · Draw 26.2% · Away 50.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Liverpool v Fulham

premier-league · 14:00 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	5	18
Position last season	5	11
Points this season	5	0
Goal difference this season	+2	-3
Elo rating going in	1,815	1,682
Matches on record, all seasons	611	667
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.9	0.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	0	5
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	4	0
Losses in a row	0	3
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	18.0	16.4
Shots on target, last 5	6.2	4.6
Shots per possession	0.263	0.282
On-target shots per possession	0.092	0.069
Inside-box shots per possession	0.165	0.175
Share of shots from inside the box	61.5%	61.9%
Expected goals, last 5	2.11	1.39
Possession, last 5	60.2%	59.6%
Corners, last 5	7.0	5.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.316	0.287
On-target allowed per possession	0.111	0.101
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.216	0.204
Opponents' inside-box share	67.4%	69.6%
Save rate	68.2%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	3.0	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.80	1.29
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	86.5%	85.0%
Passes, last 5	507	573
Fouls, last 5	11.8	10.8
Cards, last 5	2.6	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	20
Home side won	12
Drawn	4
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	43
Goals, away side	23

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 65.9% · Draw 19.4% · Away 14.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Mansfield Town v Huddersfield

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	16	2
Position last season	10	9
Points this season	6	11
Goal difference this season	-3	+6
Elo rating going in	1,410	1,431
Matches on record, all seasons	97	687
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	11
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	2.0	2.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.8	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	0
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	6
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.5	14.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.2	6.3
Shots per possession	0.303	0.341
On-target shots per possession	0.124	0.120
Inside-box shots per possession	0.196	0.245
Share of shots from inside the box	63.8%	68.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.35	1.85
Possession, last 5	44.2%	54.0%
Corners, last 5	3.0	5.3
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.254	0.235
On-target allowed per possession	0.088	0.068
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.174	0.143
Opponents' inside-box share	68.8%	61.1%
Save rate	63.1%	56.8%
Saves, last 5	3.0	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.40	1.14
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	71.0%	75.0%
Passes, last 5	345	413
Fouls, last 5	16.2	12.0
Cards, last 5	1.6	0.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	1
Drawn	0
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	7
Goals, away side	8

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 27.5% · Draw 26.9% · Away 45.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Middlesbrough v Norwich

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 4–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	10
Position last season	5	9
Points this season	10	9
Goal difference this season	+3	+1
Elo rating going in	1,570	1,539
Matches on record, all seasons	697	653
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	9
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	1.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	2	0
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	1	2
Unbeaten run	3	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	18.8	15.5
Shots on target, last 5	5.5	5.5
Shots per possession	0.312	0.314
On-target shots per possession	0.088	0.118
Inside-box shots per possession	0.194	0.202
Share of shots from inside the box	62.7%	64.0%
Expected goals, last 5	2.01	1.52
Possession, last 5	60.8%	47.5%
Corners, last 5	6.2	4.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.294	0.239
On-target allowed per possession	0.094	0.106
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.189	0.182
Opponents' inside-box share	65.7%	75.0%
Save rate	63.7%	65.1%
Saves, last 5	2.2	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.99	1.78
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	89.3%	77.0%
Passes, last 5	557	358
Fouls, last 5	11.2	11.8
Cards, last 5	0.6	3.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	17
Home side won	8
Drawn	3
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	23
Goals, away side	15

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 51.9% · Draw 23.4% · Away 24.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Milton Keynes Dons v Peterborough

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	18	18
Position last season	—	18
Points this season	4	4
Goal difference this season	-2	-6
Elo rating going in	1,378	1,325
Matches on record, all seasons	504	690
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	0.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	1.9
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	4	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.0	16.7
Shots on target, last 5	3.2	4.7
Shots per possession	0.318	0.258
On-target shots per possession	0.083	0.079
Inside-box shots per possession	0.225	0.160
Share of shots from inside the box	69.8%	63.4%
Expected goals, last 5	0.95	1.60
Possession, last 5	44.0%	60.0%
Corners, last 5	4.2	5.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.294	0.351
On-target allowed per possession	0.114	0.156
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.179	0.262
Opponents' inside-box share	60.3%	72.6%
Save rate	67.6%	67.1%
Saves, last 5	4.8	4.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.05	2.05
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	70.5%	83.5%
Passes, last 5	320	518
Fouls, last 5	11.0	9.0
Cards, last 5	1.2	0.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	13
Home side won	3
Drawn	1
Away side won	9
Goals, home side	14
Goals, away side	24

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 48.8% · Draw 24.3% · Away 27.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Oxford United v Burton Albion

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 3–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	10	5
Position last season	23	17
Points this season	7	8
Goal difference this season	+3	+3
Elo rating going in	1,464	1,371
Matches on record, all seasons	461	500
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	8
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	1
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.7	9.5
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	3.8
Shots per possession	0.309	0.280
On-target shots per possession	0.100	0.101
Inside-box shots per possession	0.179	0.173
Share of shots from inside the box	59.2%	61.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.17	0.41
Possession, last 5	41.7%	39.2%
Corners, last 5	4.0	2.5
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.232	0.216
On-target allowed per possession	0.070	0.060
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.162	0.153
Opponents' inside-box share	68.5%	69.6%
Save rate	66.7%	64.1%
Saves, last 5	3.7	2.5
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.57	1.70
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	70.5%	69.0%
Passes, last 5	315	342
Fouls, last 5	14.7	15.2
Cards, last 5	1.0	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	12
Home side won	8
Drawn	2
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	32
Goals, away side	13

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 50.8% · Draw 25.0% · Away 24.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Plymouth v Barnsley

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 3–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	13	14
Position last season	8	15
Points this season	7	7
Goal difference this season	-1	-2
Elo rating going in	1,469	1,372
Matches on record, all seasons	373	705
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.8	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	3
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.3	17.5
Shots on target, last 5	5.0	4.5
Shots per possession	0.410	0.248
On-target shots per possession	0.147	0.072
Inside-box shots per possession	0.277	0.163
Share of shots from inside the box	66.8%	66.3%
Expected goals, last 5	0.96	1.22
Possession, last 5	40.3%	57.2%
Corners, last 5	5.3	8.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.192	0.293
On-target allowed per possession	0.056	0.097
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.123	0.213
Opponents' inside-box share	68.3%	70.5%
Save rate	62.3%	62.8%
Saves, last 5	1.3	1.5
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.40	1.05
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	60.0%	68.5%
Passes, last 5	272	366
Fouls, last 5	13.3	13.0
Cards, last 5	0.8	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	2
Drawn	1
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	6
Goals, away side	10

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 57.2% · Draw 22.3% · Away 20.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Preston v Lincoln

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	23	17
Position last season	14	1
Points this season	3	5
Goal difference this season	-6	-2
Elo rating going in	1,446	1,560
Matches on record, all seasons	701	319
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	2.1	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	0	4
Failed to score, last 10	2	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	3
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	4	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.8	13.0
Shots on target, last 5	3.0	3.5
Shots per possession	0.300	0.359
On-target shots per possession	0.091	0.112
Inside-box shots per possession	0.201	0.261
Share of shots from inside the box	67.7%	70.8%
Expected goals, last 5	0.79	1.32
Possession, last 5	40.0%	33.0%
Corners, last 5	4.0	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.262	0.234
On-target allowed per possession	0.077	0.075
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.168	0.140
Opponents' inside-box share	64.1%	60.7%
Save rate	58.8%	68.8%
Saves, last 5	2.8	4.5
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.21	1.64
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	74.5%	64.3%
Passes, last 5	320	242
Fouls, last 5	13.2	14.5
Cards, last 5	2.2	2.2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 40.6% · Draw 27.8% · Away 31.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Sheffield Wednesday v Wigan

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	23
Position last season	24	16
Points this season	12	3
Goal difference this season	+7	-6
Elo rating going in	1,375	1,345
Matches on record, all seasons	705	719
Recent form
Points, last 5	12	3
Goals scored, last 5	2.6	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	6
Wins in a row	3	0
Unbeaten run	3	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.7	14.5
Shots on target, last 5	7.7	3.5
Shots per possession	0.248	0.240
On-target shots per possession	0.081	0.069
Inside-box shots per possession	0.188	0.161
Share of shots from inside the box	73.5%	67.9%
Expected goals, last 5	2.71	2.08
Possession, last 5	57.7%	54.2%
Corners, last 5	6.7	6.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.298	0.255
On-target allowed per possession	0.087	0.073
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.218	0.170
Opponents' inside-box share	72.6%	64.1%
Save rate	64.2%	68.0%
Saves, last 5	2.3	2.5
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.04	0.82
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.0%	78.0%
Passes, last 5	423	430
Fouls, last 5	10.3	10.8
Cards, last 5	1.0	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	12
Home side won	8
Drawn	0
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	14
Goals, away side	12

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 58.5% · Draw 23.1% · Away 18.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Southampton v Bristol City

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 4–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	4
Position last season	4	12
Points this season	11	10
Goal difference this season	+7	+2
Elo rating going in	1,622	1,531
Matches on record, all seasons	605	697
Recent form
Points, last 5	11	10
Goals scored, last 5	2.6	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	2.1	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	2
Wins in a row	1	3
Unbeaten run	5	4
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	4	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	3.0	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.2	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	2.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.5	11.5
Shots on target, last 5	5.0	3.2
Shots per possession	0.303	0.245
On-target shots per possession	0.078	0.091
Inside-box shots per possession	0.204	0.146
Share of shots from inside the box	66.4%	56.8%
Expected goals, last 5	2.76	0.85
Possession, last 5	55.0%	40.5%
Corners, last 5	6.8	5.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.369	0.244
On-target allowed per possession	0.098	0.065
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.253	0.158
Opponents' inside-box share	67.4%	65.1%
Save rate	71.1%	68.0%
Saves, last 5	2.5	1.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.88	2.12
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	87.5%	65.3%
Passes, last 5	463	316
Fouls, last 5	9.0	10.5
Cards, last 5	1.0	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	1
Drawn	1
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	5
Goals, away side	11

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 57.2% · Draw 22.1% · Away 20.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Stockport County v Leicester

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 3–4. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	17
Position last season	3	21
Points this season	9	5
Goal difference this season	+7	-3
Elo rating going in	1,488	1,460
Matches on record, all seasons	102	617
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	5
Goals scored, last 5	2.6	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	2.1	0.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	3	3
Failed to score, last 10	1	4
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	18.0	17.0
Shots on target, last 5	6.5	5.0
Shots per possession	0.234	0.294
On-target shots per possession	0.093	0.087
Inside-box shots per possession	0.181	0.173
Share of shots from inside the box	76.1%	56.0%
Expected goals, last 5	2.12	1.31
Possession, last 5	63.0%	71.0%
Corners, last 5	8.2	8.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.242	0.307
On-target allowed per possession	0.107	0.090
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.159	0.193
Opponents' inside-box share	66.9%	64.6%
Save rate	68.9%	63.1%
Saves, last 5	2.2	2.3
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.31	0.64
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	89.5%	87.0%
Passes, last 5	621	584
Fouls, last 5	9.2	10.0
Cards, last 5	0.8	1.2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 50.9% · Draw 24.0% · Away 25.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Swansea v Burnley

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 3–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	23
Position last season	11	19
Points this season	11	3
Goal difference this season	+4	-6
Elo rating going in	1,548	1,557
Matches on record, all seasons	645	624
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	2
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	0.6	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	0.9	2.0
Clean sheets, last 10	4	0
Failed to score, last 10	2	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	4	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	0.8
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	2.4
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.0	13.5
Shots on target, last 5	4.5	3.2
Shots per possession	0.220	0.265
On-target shots per possession	0.091	0.078
Inside-box shots per possession	0.125	0.135
Share of shots from inside the box	57.4%	50.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.99	1.05
Possession, last 5	58.5%	53.2%
Corners, last 5	5.0	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.279	0.329
On-target allowed per possession	0.077	0.108
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.213	0.224
Opponents' inside-box share	77.1%	70.5%
Save rate	70.0%	63.1%
Saves, last 5	1.0	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.17	1.78
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.0%	86.0%
Passes, last 5	544	494
Fouls, last 5	10.2	11.5
Cards, last 5	1.6	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	5
Drawn	0
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	8
Goals, away side	13

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 46.9% · Draw 26.9% · Away 26.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Watford v Stoke City

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	12	15
Position last season	16	17
Points this season	8	7
Goal difference this season	-1	-1
Elo rating going in	1,473	1,448
Matches on record, all seasons	651	678
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	7
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	0.7	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	2.1	2.0
Clean sheets, last 10	0	2
Failed to score, last 10	5	2
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	4	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.8	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	0.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	2.4
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.8	13.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.2	4.2
Shots per possession	0.290	0.258
On-target shots per possession	0.087	0.068
Inside-box shots per possession	0.198	0.172
Share of shots from inside the box	66.6%	68.8%
Expected goals, last 5	0.90	0.78
Possession, last 5	47.0%	45.2%
Corners, last 5	3.0	3.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.273	0.260
On-target allowed per possession	0.091	0.094
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.157	0.177
Opponents' inside-box share	59.9%	66.6%
Save rate	61.4%	58.0%
Saves, last 5	2.5	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.16	2.48
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	75.5%	83.0%
Passes, last 5	396	354
Fouls, last 5	9.5	18.8
Cards, last 5	1.2	2.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	16
Home side won	7
Drawn	3
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	20
Goals, away side	14

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 40.6% · Draw 27.8% · Away 31.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Cadiz v Las Palmas

laliga-2 · 14:15 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	18	5
Position last season	18	5
Points this season	3	7
Goal difference this season	-1	+0
Elo rating going in	1,370	1,530
Matches on record, all seasons	410	450
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	8
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	6	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	6.8	8.0
Shots on target, last 5	1.5	3.2
Shots per possession	0.172	0.177
On-target shots per possession	0.053	0.070
Inside-box shots per possession	0.111	0.104
Share of shots from inside the box	68.3%	59.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.12	—
Possession, last 5	48.2%	54.0%
Corners, last 5	3.0	2.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.265	0.283
On-target allowed per possession	0.096	0.097
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.181	0.202
Opponents' inside-box share	65.8%	72.3%
Save rate	68.2%	66.2%
Saves, last 5	4.0	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.93	—
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	85.3%	87.0%
Passes, last 5	395	477
Fouls, last 5	10.0	11.0
Cards, last 5	1.4	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	4
Drawn	2
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	13
Goals, away side	6

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 34.2% · Draw 28.6% · Away 37.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Osasuna v Espanyol

la-liga · 14:15 UK

Finished 0–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	7	11
Position last season	16	11
Points this season	7	4
Goal difference this season	-1	+1
Elo rating going in	1,585	1,559
Matches on record, all seasons	544	624
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	6	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.6	12.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	4.4
Shots per possession	0.257	0.261
On-target shots per possession	0.105	0.091
Inside-box shots per possession	0.169	0.148
Share of shots from inside the box	64.2%	56.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.39	1.30
Possession, last 5	47.0%	48.8%
Corners, last 5	3.8	1.5
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.208	0.219
On-target allowed per possession	0.075	0.089
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.115	0.153
Opponents' inside-box share	53.4%	68.1%
Save rate	60.5%	70.5%
Saves, last 5	1.4	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.57	0.90
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	76.2%	83.2%
Passes, last 5	374	355
Fouls, last 5	15.0	13.2
Cards, last 5	2.4	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	20
Home side won	9
Drawn	5
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	25
Goals, away side	17

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 43.4% · Draw 29.4% · Away 27.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Nacional v Alverca

primeira-liga · 14:30 UK

Finished 1–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	10	16
Position last season	14	11
Points this season	4	2
Goal difference this season	-2	-5
Elo rating going in	1,478	1,561
Matches on record, all seasons	363	39
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	2
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	0.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	4	0
Failed to score, last 10	3	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	3	1
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.0	8.6
Shots on target, last 5	2.8	2.6
Shots per possession	0.233	0.193
On-target shots per possession	0.076	0.063
Inside-box shots per possession	0.124	0.115
Share of shots from inside the box	50.2%	58.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.14	0.97
Possession, last 5	48.6%	41.0%
Corners, last 5	3.6	4.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.323	0.202
On-target allowed per possession	0.090	0.069
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.182	0.119
Opponents' inside-box share	57.3%	56.5%
Save rate	72.2%	65.6%
Saves, last 5	3.8	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.87	1.38
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.2%	79.2%
Passes, last 5	394	294
Fouls, last 5	10.8	10.8
Cards, last 5	1.6	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	1
Drawn	0
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	1
Goals, away side	1

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 35.7% · Draw 29.8% · Away 34.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Twente v ADO Den Haag

eredivisie · 14:30 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	5	15
Position last season	4	—
Points this season	10	1
Goal difference this season	+5	-8
Elo rating going in	1,672	1,410
Matches on record, all seasons	519	389
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	1
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	2.8
Goals scored, last 10	2.0	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	2.8
Clean sheets, last 10	2	0
Failed to score, last 10	1	3
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	4	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	3	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.2	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.6	2.4
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	21.4	11.0
Shots on target, last 5	7.2	2.8
Shots per possession	0.346	0.259
On-target shots per possession	0.130	0.071
Inside-box shots per possession	0.235	0.163
Share of shots from inside the box	66.0%	60.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.87	0.80
Possession, last 5	60.8%	48.6%
Corners, last 5	6.8	4.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.258	0.251
On-target allowed per possession	0.085	0.125
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.145	0.168
Opponents' inside-box share	59.6%	67.0%
Save rate	65.0%	59.1%
Saves, last 5	2.2	5.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.51	2.32
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	87.7%	80.5%
Passes, last 5	564	428
Fouls, last 5	10.0	12.8
Cards, last 5	0.8	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	19
Home side won	8
Drawn	5
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	38
Goals, away side	32

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 73.2% · Draw 15.2% · Away 11.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Strasbourg v Monaco

ligue-1 · 15:15 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	1
Position last season	8	7
Points this season	6	9
Goal difference this season	+1	+4
Elo rating going in	1,638	1,687
Matches on record, all seasons	322	513
Recent form
Points, last 5	12	9
Goals scored, last 5	3.0	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	2.4	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	2.3	1.8
Goals conceded, last 10	2.1	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	0	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	1
Wins in a row	2	3
Unbeaten run	2	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	6	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	2.4	2.2
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	1.8
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.0	11.6
Shots on target, last 5	6.6	5.0
Shots per possession	0.237	0.226
On-target shots per possession	0.105	0.091
Inside-box shots per possession	0.161	0.147
Share of shots from inside the box	64.8%	66.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.34	1.09
Possession, last 5	46.4%	46.4%
Corners, last 5	3.0	4.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.377	0.319
On-target allowed per possession	0.134	0.120
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.253	0.199
Opponents' inside-box share	65.6%	62.3%
Save rate	68.3%	65.8%
Saves, last 5	5.0	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.24	0.93
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.8%	84.2%
Passes, last 5	441	434
Fouls, last 5	11.2	11.2
Cards, last 5	1.6	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	18
Home side won	6
Drawn	3
Away side won	9
Goals, home side	30
Goals, away side	35

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 29.7% · Draw 25.3% · Away 45.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Lazio v AC Milan

serie-a · 16:00 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	4
Position last season	9	5
Points this season	9	7
Goal difference this season	+3	+3
Elo rating going in	1,697	1,730
Matches on record, all seasons	611	611
Recent form
Points, last 5	12	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	3	3
Failed to score, last 10	3	3
Wins in a row	4	0
Unbeaten run	4	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	5	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	1.2
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	1.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.0	12.4
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	3.8
Shots per possession	0.256	0.231
On-target shots per possession	0.102	0.070
Inside-box shots per possession	0.153	0.153
Share of shots from inside the box	60.6%	60.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.15	1.81
Possession, last 5	49.4%	50.8%
Corners, last 5	5.2	3.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.237	0.258
On-target allowed per possession	0.083	0.089
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.153	0.164
Opponents' inside-box share	66.3%	64.6%
Save rate	69.5%	72.1%
Saves, last 5	3.4	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.18	1.48
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	86.4%	85.5%
Passes, last 5	464	457
Fouls, last 5	14.4	11.0
Cards, last 5	2.4	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	9
Drawn	9
Away side won	14
Goals, home side	40
Goals, away side	46

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 28.0% · Draw 29.8% · Away 42.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

1. FC Köln v Werder Bremen

bundesliga · 16:30 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	8	8
Position last season	14	15
Points this season	3	3
Goal difference this season	-2	-1
Elo rating going in	1,486	1,515
Matches on record, all seasons	412	514
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	3
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	3.2	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.8	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	2.5	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	0	1
Failed to score, last 10	0	2
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.2	11.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	3.8
Shots per possession	0.346	0.257
On-target shots per possession	0.128	0.097
Inside-box shots per possession	0.259	0.145
Share of shots from inside the box	73.7%	57.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.40	0.85
Possession, last 5	44.2%	44.6%
Corners, last 5	6.0	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.251	0.294
On-target allowed per possession	0.090	0.100
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.169	0.187
Opponents' inside-box share	65.2%	62.3%
Save rate	53.9%	65.7%
Saves, last 5	2.2	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.83	2.19
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.8%	80.5%
Passes, last 5	389	433
Fouls, last 5	8.0	10.2
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	22
Home side won	6
Drawn	10
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	34
Goals, away side	32

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 45.8% · Draw 25.6% · Away 28.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Athletic Club v Elche

la-liga · 16:30 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	7	19
Position last season	12	13
Points this season	6	1
Goal difference this season	+1	-7
Elo rating going in	1,626	1,546
Matches on record, all seasons	612	446
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	2
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	2.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.8	2.0
Clean sheets, last 10	2	1
Failed to score, last 10	3	1
Wins in a row	2	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	3
Days since last match	7	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.2	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.0	2.2
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.6	11.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.2	5.2
Shots per possession	0.284	0.193
On-target shots per possession	0.096	0.078
Inside-box shots per possession	0.202	0.129
Share of shots from inside the box	69.9%	68.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.23	0.84
Possession, last 5	40.8%	53.8%
Corners, last 5	5.0	5.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.174	0.240
On-target allowed per possession	0.083	0.107
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.118	0.171
Opponents' inside-box share	65.6%	70.0%
Save rate	66.7%	57.7%
Saves, last 5	4.2	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.69	1.64
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	77.5%	81.8%
Passes, last 5	379	490
Fouls, last 5	12.4	14.6
Cards, last 5	1.6	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	12
Home side won	5
Drawn	4
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	15
Goals, away side	12

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 68.1% · Draw 18.7% · Away 13.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Girona v Castellón

laliga-2 · 16:30 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	1
Position last season	19	6
Points this season	7	10
Goal difference this season	+4	+4
Elo rating going in	1,575	1,522
Matches on record, all seasons	412	132
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	10
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	0.8
Clean sheets, last 10	1	4
Failed to score, last 10	2	1
Wins in a row	2	2
Unbeaten run	2	4
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.8	14.0
Shots on target, last 5	5.6	4.8
Shots per possession	0.292	0.274
On-target shots per possession	0.107	0.090
Inside-box shots per possession	0.182	0.205
Share of shots from inside the box	63.1%	73.7%
Expected goals, last 5	0.58	1.15
Possession, last 5	52.6%	60.4%
Corners, last 5	3.6	6.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.226	0.197
On-target allowed per possession	0.078	0.064
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.149	0.140
Opponents' inside-box share	68.4%	71.3%
Save rate	65.5%	65.3%
Saves, last 5	2.2	1.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.18	1.63
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	87.5%	82.8%
Passes, last 5	466	532
Fouls, last 5	13.0	11.8
Cards, last 5	3.2	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	2
Drawn	0
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	3
Goals, away side	1

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 43.3% · Draw 28.5% · Away 28.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Granada CF v Albacete

laliga-2 · 16:30 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	8	21
Position last season	14	11
Points this season	7	0
Goal difference this season	+1	-5
Elo rating going in	1,443	1,439
Matches on record, all seasons	594	344
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	0
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	0.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	3	1
Failed to score, last 10	4	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	5
Days since last match	6	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	0.8
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	1.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.8	11.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	4.0
Shots per possession	0.231	0.329
On-target shots per possession	0.077	0.117
Inside-box shots per possession	0.124	0.216
Share of shots from inside the box	54.3%	64.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.14	1.05
Possession, last 5	48.8%	46.8%
Corners, last 5	3.8	5.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.275	0.268
On-target allowed per possession	0.102	0.099
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.153	0.168
Opponents' inside-box share	54.9%	61.2%
Save rate	67.7%	74.2%
Saves, last 5	2.8	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.38	1.19
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	78.5%	80.5%
Passes, last 5	380	398
Fouls, last 5	11.6	11.6
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	4
Drawn	3
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	14
Goals, away side	11

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 44.8% · Draw 29.7% · Away 25.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Tottenham v Everton

premier-league · 16:30 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	17	6
Position last season	17	13
Points this season	1	5
Goal difference this season	-5	+2
Elo rating going in	1,637	1,715
Matches on record, all seasons	611	611
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	5
Goals scored, last 5	0.4	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	0.8	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	3	1
Failed to score, last 10	4	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	1	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.2	13.4
Shots on target, last 5	3.0	4.6
Shots per possession	0.238	0.311
On-target shots per possession	0.073	0.121
Inside-box shots per possession	0.170	0.217
Share of shots from inside the box	70.4%	69.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.09	1.08
Possession, last 5	56.4%	45.4%
Corners, last 5	6.6	5.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.265	0.269
On-target allowed per possession	0.066	0.074
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.165	0.184
Opponents' inside-box share	59.7%	68.2%
Save rate	60.6%	59.2%
Saves, last 5	1.8	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.44	1.52
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	87.2%	81.8%
Passes, last 5	478	387
Fouls, last 5	15.2	11.6
Cards, last 5	2.0	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	15
Drawn	12
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	57
Goals, away side	28

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 47.6% · Draw 26.1% · Away 26.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

GO Ahead Eagles v Groningen

eredivisie · 16:45 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	6	9
Position last season	12	9
Points this season	8	7
Goal difference this season	+2	-1
Elo rating going in	1,560	1,528
Matches on record, all seasons	279	525
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	7
Goals scored, last 5	2.8	2.2
Goals conceded, last 5	2.4	2.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.8	1.8
Goals conceded, last 10	2.0	2.2
Clean sheets, last 10	2	0
Failed to score, last 10	2	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	1	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	4	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Scored away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.4	16.6
Shots on target, last 5	6.4	5.8
Shots per possession	0.239	0.271
On-target shots per possession	0.092	0.102
Inside-box shots per possession	0.155	0.184
Share of shots from inside the box	67.7%	67.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.67	1.83
Possession, last 5	54.0%	51.2%
Corners, last 5	5.2	5.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.458	0.275
On-target allowed per possession	0.112	0.115
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.301	0.196
Opponents' inside-box share	64.8%	69.8%
Save rate	67.5%	60.1%
Saves, last 5	2.6	4.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.92	2.15
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	82.8%	81.5%
Passes, last 5	460	428
Fouls, last 5	7.6	8.0
Cards, last 5	0.8	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	14
Home side won	2
Drawn	5
Away side won	7
Goals, home side	14
Goals, away side	20

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 41.1% · Draw 24.5% · Away 34.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Alanyaspor v Göztepe

super-lig · 17:00 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	7	17
Position last season	10	6
Points this season	7	1
Goal difference this season	+1	-4
Elo rating going in	1,600	1,607
Matches on record, all seasons	362	254
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	1
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	2.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	2.0
Clean sheets, last 10	3	1
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	3
Days since last match	5	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.4	17.4
Shots on target, last 5	2.6	5.2
Shots per possession	0.234	0.432
On-target shots per possession	0.076	0.139
Inside-box shots per possession	0.148	0.333
Share of shots from inside the box	63.1%	76.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.04	2.06
Possession, last 5	40.4%	40.2%
Corners, last 5	4.8	5.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.226	0.262
On-target allowed per possession	0.082	0.081
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.128	0.184
Opponents' inside-box share	57.0%	70.0%
Save rate	72.2%	63.3%
Saves, last 5	3.8	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.25	2.24
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	78.6%	67.6%
Passes, last 5	347	273
Fouls, last 5	17.0	15.2
Cards, last 5	1.0	3.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	14
Home side won	4
Drawn	7
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	20
Goals, away side	18

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 43.9% · Draw 28.0% · Away 28.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Casa Pia v FC Porto

primeira-liga · 17:00 UK

Finished 1–4. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	18	1
Position last season	16	1
Points this season	1	15
Goal difference this season	-11	+10
Elo rating going in	1,511	1,892
Matches on record, all seasons	143	533
Recent form
Points, last 5	1	15
Goals scored, last 5	0.0	2.2
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	0.2
Goals scored, last 10	0.4	1.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	0.5
Clean sheets, last 10	4	7
Failed to score, last 10	7	0
Wins in a row	0	6
Unbeaten run	1	6
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	6	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.2
Scored away, last 5 there	0.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.2	15.0
Shots on target, last 5	2.2	6.6
Shots per possession	0.246	0.267
On-target shots per possession	0.087	0.103
Inside-box shots per possession	0.162	0.182
Share of shots from inside the box	68.4%	68.7%
Expected goals, last 5	0.56	2.26
Possession, last 5	45.8%	54.4%
Corners, last 5	4.0	7.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.245	0.219
On-target allowed per possession	0.078	0.065
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.156	0.112
Opponents' inside-box share	61.3%	48.3%
Save rate	72.5%	73.2%
Saves, last 5	3.6	1.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.58	0.90
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	83.2%	84.8%
Passes, last 5	365	451
Fouls, last 5	11.2	13.8
Cards, last 5	2.0	0.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	1
Drawn	1
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	5
Goals, away side	15

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 8.2% · Draw 15.8% · Away 76.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Konyaspor v Trabzonspor

super-lig · 17:00 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	18	4
Position last season	9	3
Points this season	0	7
Goal difference this season	-5	+5
Elo rating going in	1,553	1,732
Matches on record, all seasons	464	538
Recent form
Points, last 5	0	7
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	2	1
Failed to score, last 10	3	1
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	7	0
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.6	14.8
Shots on target, last 5	2.8	7.0
Shots per possession	0.247	0.266
On-target shots per possession	0.085	0.102
Inside-box shots per possession	0.163	0.176
Share of shots from inside the box	67.3%	67.6%
Expected goals, last 5	0.93	1.06
Possession, last 5	50.8%	56.6%
Corners, last 5	2.2	6.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.299	0.317
On-target allowed per possession	0.121	0.102
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.179	0.190
Opponents' inside-box share	58.5%	60.4%
Save rate	70.7%	68.2%
Saves, last 5	5.0	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.46	1.87
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	82.8%	87.0%
Passes, last 5	412	484
Fouls, last 5	12.0	11.4
Cards, last 5	2.6	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	26
Home side won	7
Drawn	7
Away side won	12
Goals, home side	34
Goals, away side	44

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 26.7% · Draw 25.2% · Away 48.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Fortuna Sittard v Ajax

eredivisie · 18:00 UK

Finished 1–5. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	4
Position last season	11	5
Points this season	10	7
Goal difference this season	+2	+4
Elo rating going in	1,529	1,700
Matches on record, all seasons	269	541
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	8
Goals scored, last 5	2.2	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.8	0.9
Clean sheets, last 10	0	6
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	2	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	6	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.2	20.2
Shots on target, last 5	5.0	6.6
Shots per possession	0.276	0.308
On-target shots per possession	0.121	0.108
Inside-box shots per possession	0.151	0.183
Share of shots from inside the box	56.1%	60.3%
Expected goals, last 5	0.92	1.72
Possession, last 5	32.4%	59.0%
Corners, last 5	1.8	5.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.277	0.269
On-target allowed per possession	0.091	0.094
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.190	0.174
Opponents' inside-box share	67.6%	64.4%
Save rate	66.7%	73.2%
Saves, last 5	4.2	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.66	1.00
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	70.2%	88.2%
Passes, last 5	285	558
Fouls, last 5	9.8	10.6
Cards, last 5	1.8	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	15
Home side won	0
Drawn	2
Away side won	13
Goals, home side	9
Goals, away side	51

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 15.0% · Draw 18.8% · Away 66.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Atalanta v Cagliari

serie-a · 18:45 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	7	8
Position last season	7	14
Points this season	6	6
Goal difference this season	+1	+1
Elo rating going in	1,709	1,570
Matches on record, all seasons	573	535
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	12
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	0.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	2	4
Failed to score, last 10	3	4
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	7	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.4	15.4
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	5.2
Shots per possession	0.243	0.333
On-target shots per possession	0.077	0.100
Inside-box shots per possession	0.159	0.208
Share of shots from inside the box	65.9%	62.2%
Expected goals, last 5	0.75	1.38
Possession, last 5	47.4%	45.0%
Corners, last 5	2.2	5.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.319	0.234
On-target allowed per possession	0.114	0.074
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.208	0.158
Opponents' inside-box share	64.8%	65.7%
Save rate	78.5%	71.6%
Saves, last 5	5.2	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.40	1.56
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	87.8%	85.2%
Passes, last 5	482	394
Fouls, last 5	12.0	9.0
Cards, last 5	1.2	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	26
Home side won	13
Drawn	3
Away side won	10
Goals, home side	31
Goals, away side	28

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 59.2% · Draw 23.8% · Away 17.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Auxerre v Nice

ligue-1 · 18:45 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	18	15
Position last season	15	16
Points this season	0	2
Goal difference this season	-7	-3
Elo rating going in	1,504	1,549
Matches on record, all seasons	187	591
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	6
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	2.4	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	0.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.9	0.9
Clean sheets, last 10	2	4
Failed to score, last 10	1	5
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	3	0
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.2	11.6
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	3.4
Shots per possession	0.251	0.218
On-target shots per possession	0.100	0.065
Inside-box shots per possession	0.164	0.144
Share of shots from inside the box	66.0%	63.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.11	0.74
Possession, last 5	44.6%	56.8%
Corners, last 5	6.2	5.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.242	0.248
On-target allowed per possession	0.100	0.061
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.179	0.134
Opponents' inside-box share	75.0%	50.6%
Save rate	62.6%	70.0%
Saves, last 5	3.4	1.5
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.29	1.81
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	78.5%	86.8%
Passes, last 5	377	523
Fouls, last 5	15.2	7.6
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	4
Drawn	3
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	12
Goals, away side	11

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 37.1% · Draw 28.2% · Away 34.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Le Havre v Angers

ligue-1 · 18:45 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	16	12
Position last season	14	13
Points this season	1	3
Goal difference this season	-2	-1
Elo rating going in	1,501	1,476
Matches on record, all seasons	105	365
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	5
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	0.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	1	1
Failed to score, last 10	2	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	1
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.2	0.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.8	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.2	14.6
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	3.4
Shots per possession	0.229	0.272
On-target shots per possession	0.086	0.077
Inside-box shots per possession	0.153	0.177
Share of shots from inside the box	69.5%	64.3%
Expected goals, last 5	0.91	1.22
Possession, last 5	47.8%	43.2%
Corners, last 5	4.2	6.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.274	0.269
On-target allowed per possession	0.103	0.118
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.175	0.176
Opponents' inside-box share	62.6%	64.6%
Save rate	74.9%	75.8%
Saves, last 5	4.4	5.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.40	1.53
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.8%	79.8%
Passes, last 5	385	368
Fouls, last 5	15.0	10.2
Cards, last 5	2.4	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	1
Drawn	2
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	4
Goals, away side	4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 35.9% · Draw 30.4% · Away 33.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Lorient v Toulouse

ligue-1 · 18:45 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	7	16
Position last season	10	9
Points this season	4	1
Goal difference this season	+0	-3
Elo rating going in	1,550	1,553
Matches on record, all seasons	451	515
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.9
Clean sheets, last 10	4	1
Failed to score, last 10	3	4
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	7	9
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.2	12.6
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	4.2
Shots per possession	0.234	0.269
On-target shots per possession	0.093	0.083
Inside-box shots per possession	0.148	0.153
Share of shots from inside the box	62.1%	54.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.31	1.26
Possession, last 5	50.4%	46.2%
Corners, last 5	2.6	4.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.229	0.246
On-target allowed per possession	0.072	0.093
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.156	0.151
Opponents' inside-box share	68.2%	55.0%
Save rate	71.9%	68.0%
Saves, last 5	2.4	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.10	1.13
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	87.0%	81.2%
Passes, last 5	474	330
Fouls, last 5	8.0	13.8
Cards, last 5	1.0	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	20
Home side won	4
Drawn	8
Away side won	8
Goals, home side	19
Goals, away side	26

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 37.3% · Draw 29.3% · Away 33.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Paris FC v Lyon

ligue-1 · 18:45 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	1
Position last season	11	4
Points this season	7	7
Goal difference this season	+4	+4
Elo rating going in	1,613	1,668
Matches on record, all seasons	37	589
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	2.1	1.8
Goals conceded, last 10	0.9	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	3	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	2	1
Unbeaten run	4	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	6	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.8	15.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.2	4.0
Shots per possession	0.288	0.246
On-target shots per possession	0.114	0.097
Inside-box shots per possession	0.210	0.173
Share of shots from inside the box	73.4%	69.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.74	1.33
Possession, last 5	45.8%	57.8%
Corners, last 5	2.2	9.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.223	0.266
On-target allowed per possession	0.068	0.084
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.149	0.171
Opponents' inside-box share	66.3%	61.8%
Save rate	71.4%	67.3%
Saves, last 5	2.6	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.83	1.49
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	86.0%	86.0%
Passes, last 5	464	455
Fouls, last 5	9.6	9.4
Cards, last 5	1.4	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	0
Drawn	2
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	4
Goals, away side	4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 37.0% · Draw 26.4% · Away 36.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Cambuur v NEC Nijmegen

eredivisie · 19:00 UK

Finished 3–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	18	9
Position last season	—	3
Points this season	1	7
Goal difference this season	-12	+2
Elo rating going in	1,347	1,611
Matches on record, all seasons	177	386
Recent form
Points, last 5	1	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	2.2
Goals conceded, last 5	3.6	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	2.6	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	1	0
Failed to score, last 10	3	0
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	1	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	6	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.8	16.0
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	4.6
Shots per possession	0.282	0.305
On-target shots per possession	0.086	0.091
Inside-box shots per possession	0.192	0.191
Share of shots from inside the box	69.0%	62.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.19	2.30
Possession, last 5	49.8%	63.6%
Corners, last 5	3.8	5.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.296	0.268
On-target allowed per possession	0.124	0.111
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.187	0.184
Opponents' inside-box share	64.5%	71.9%
Save rate	59.8%	64.6%
Saves, last 5	3.6	1.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.26	1.62
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	83.8%	80.3%
Passes, last 5	414	537
Fouls, last 5	11.0	10.4
Cards, last 5	1.4	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	3
Drawn	2
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	11
Goals, away side	10

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 18.2% · Draw 19.7% · Away 62.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Cordoba v Almeria

laliga-2 · 19:00 UK

Finished 0–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	19	11
Position last season	10	3
Points this season	3	6
Goal difference this season	-3	+2
Elo rating going in	1,438	1,510
Matches on record, all seasons	252	540
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	6
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.8	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	1	3
Failed to score, last 10	1	3
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	5	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.6	12.6
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	4.2
Shots per possession	0.308	0.259
On-target shots per possession	0.088	0.087
Inside-box shots per possession	0.197	0.176
Share of shots from inside the box	63.9%	67.8%
Expected goals, last 5	2.65	—
Possession, last 5	56.4%	56.0%
Corners, last 5	5.8	5.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.321	0.244
On-target allowed per possession	0.117	0.082
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.206	0.177
Opponents' inside-box share	61.5%	74.4%
Save rate	64.8%	71.9%
Saves, last 5	3.4	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.39	—
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	82.5%	84.0%
Passes, last 5	413	491
Fouls, last 5	15.4	9.6
Cards, last 5	2.6	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	12
Home side won	3
Drawn	2
Away side won	7
Goals, home side	10
Goals, away side	20

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 39.2% · Draw 26.8% · Away 34.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Real Madrid v Rayo Vallecano

la-liga · 19:00 UK

Finished 4–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	12
Position last season	2	8
Points this season	9	4
Goal difference this season	+7	-3
Elo rating going in	1,840	1,623
Matches on record, all seasons	612	594
Recent form
Points, last 5	12	7
Goals scored, last 5	2.8	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	2.0	1.8
Goals conceded, last 10	0.8	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	4	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	0
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.6	11.2
Shots on target, last 5	8.0	5.6
Shots per possession	0.249	0.261
On-target shots per possession	0.107	0.119
Inside-box shots per possession	0.185	0.154
Share of shots from inside the box	75.3%	62.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.91	1.21
Possession, last 5	61.0%	46.0%
Corners, last 5	6.2	6.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.287	0.268
On-target allowed per possession	0.080	0.102
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.173	0.171
Opponents' inside-box share	60.8%	63.1%
Save rate	73.5%	68.6%
Saves, last 5	1.6	4.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.65	2.15
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	92.2%	77.2%
Passes, last 5	550	336
Fouls, last 5	7.2	14.2
Cards, last 5	1.8	2.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	22
Home side won	16
Drawn	4
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	55
Goals, away side	21

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 85.9% · Draw 9.6% · Away 4.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Sunderland v Arsenal

premier-league · 19:00 UK

Finished 0–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	11	1
Position last season	7	1
Points this season	4	9
Goal difference this season	+0	+5
Elo rating going in	1,681	1,937
Matches on record, all seasons	678	611
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	15
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	0.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	0.6
Clean sheets, last 10	3	6
Failed to score, last 10	2	0
Wins in a row	0	8
Unbeaten run	2	8
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.0	14.6
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	5.4
Shots per possession	0.256	0.253
On-target shots per possession	0.082	0.090
Inside-box shots per possession	0.175	0.178
Share of shots from inside the box	67.1%	70.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.28	1.67
Possession, last 5	50.2%	60.2%
Corners, last 5	3.8	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.237	0.203
On-target allowed per possession	0.084	0.052
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.154	0.118
Opponents' inside-box share	64.1%	55.8%
Save rate	66.1%	69.7%
Saves, last 5	1.4	1.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.11	0.44
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.5%	89.0%
Passes, last 5	425	527
Fouls, last 5	11.4	9.6
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	16
Home side won	0
Drawn	6
Away side won	10
Goals, home side	9
Goals, away side	29

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 13.4% · Draw 22.0% · Away 64.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Academico Viseu v Guimaraes

primeira-liga · 19:30 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	10	10
Position last season	—	8
Points this season	5	4
Goal difference this season	-3	-2
Elo rating going in	1,615	1,581
Matches on record, all seasons	5	533
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	—	0.7
Goals conceded, last 10	—	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	1	4
Failed to score, last 10	2	5
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	6	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.7	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.3	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.2	19.2
Shots on target, last 5	2.8	4.2
Shots per possession	0.193	0.284
On-target shots per possession	0.063	0.069
Inside-box shots per possession	0.125	0.167
Share of shots from inside the box	61.4%	57.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.13	1.70
Possession, last 5	48.2%	54.0%
Corners, last 5	2.6	5.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.303	0.189
On-target allowed per possession	0.102	0.095
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.230	0.128
Opponents' inside-box share	74.7%	66.9%
Save rate	68.1%	67.8%
Saves, last 5	3.8	1.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.78	0.72
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	83.5%	81.5%
Passes, last 5	403	446
Fouls, last 5	13.2	16.4
Cards, last 5	2.6	2.6

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 24.8% · Draw 28.3% · Away 46.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.