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The data behind the ratings

Sunday 13 September 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

Excelsior v Utrecht

eredivisie · 10:15 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	15
Position last season	13	6
Points this season	10	2
Goal difference this season	+7	-9
Elo rating going in	1,520	1,620
Matches on record, all seasons	355	570
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	2
Goals scored, last 5	2.4	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	3.6
Goals scored, last 10	2.6	1.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	2.1
Clean sheets, last 10	3	3
Failed to score, last 10	0	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	3	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	5	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	3.0
Scored away, last 5 there	3.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.8	11.6
Shots on target, last 5	5.2	4.0
Shots per possession	0.304	0.337
On-target shots per possession	0.115	0.120
Inside-box shots per possession	0.195	0.238
Share of shots from inside the box	63.7%	73.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.61	1.33
Possession, last 5	42.0%	41.6%
Corners, last 5	5.0	3.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.253	0.307
On-target allowed per possession	0.071	0.106
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.166	0.175
Opponents' inside-box share	64.5%	59.5%
Save rate	66.1%	64.2%
Saves, last 5	2.2	4.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.29	2.06
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.0%	77.0%
Passes, last 5	377	362
Fouls, last 5	12.6	18.0
Cards, last 5	1.4	2.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	20
Home side won	3
Drawn	7
Away side won	10
Goals, home side	30
Goals, away side	37

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 43.2% · Draw 25.2% · Away 31.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Sheffield Utd v Wolves

championship · 11:00 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	9	10
Position last season	13	20
Points this season	9	8
Goal difference this season	+0	+3
Elo rating going in	1,533	1,585
Matches on record, all seasons	683	661
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	8
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	2.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	3	0
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	5	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	1.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	2.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.0	15.5
Shots on target, last 5	3.5	5.0
Shots per possession	0.227	0.317
On-target shots per possession	0.086	0.091
Inside-box shots per possession	0.158	0.207
Share of shots from inside the box	71.4%	66.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.64	2.07
Possession, last 5	36.8%	52.5%
Corners, last 5	3.8	5.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.290	0.227
On-target allowed per possession	0.105	0.074
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.210	0.141
Opponents' inside-box share	70.8%	62.0%
Save rate	66.2%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	4.0	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.46	0.79
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	62.0%	85.0%
Passes, last 5	316	426
Fouls, last 5	12.5	11.2
Cards, last 5	1.6	0.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	3
Drawn	1
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	6
Goals, away side	13

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 25.2% · Draw 26.4% · Away 48.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Celta Vigo v Malaga

la-liga · 12:00 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	16	18
Position last season	6	4
Points this season	3	2
Goal difference this season	-3	-6
Elo rating going in	1,615	1,535
Matches on record, all seasons	537	608
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	5
Goals scored, last 5	0.4	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	0.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	4	4
Failed to score, last 10	3	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	2	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	6	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	8.4	10.8
Shots on target, last 5	2.4	2.4
Shots per possession	0.145	0.249
On-target shots per possession	0.056	0.075
Inside-box shots per possession	0.088	0.166
Share of shots from inside the box	54.3%	67.0%
Expected goals, last 5	0.59	0.95
Possession, last 5	56.2%	51.8%
Corners, last 5	3.8	5.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.304	0.246
On-target allowed per possession	0.094	0.086
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.187	0.128
Opponents' inside-box share	59.8%	49.9%
Save rate	73.8%	70.9%
Saves, last 5	3.0	4.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.64	1.42
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	87.0%	85.5%
Passes, last 5	573	488
Fouls, last 5	10.4	10.4
Cards, last 5	2.0	3.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	12
Home side won	4
Drawn	2
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	12
Goals, away side	13

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 55.8% · Draw 25.9% · Away 18.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Sporting Gijon v Eldense

laliga-2 · 12:00 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	6	20
Position last season	9	—
Points this season	7	2
Goal difference this season	+0	-4
Elo rating going in	1,467	1,387
Matches on record, all seasons	538	88
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	2
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	0.6	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.9
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	8	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.0	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.0	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.2	9.8
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	3.0
Shots per possession	0.214	0.266
On-target shots per possession	0.094	0.091
Inside-box shots per possession	0.148	0.162
Share of shots from inside the box	65.3%	58.7%
Expected goals, last 5	0.38	—
Possession, last 5	50.0%	46.0%
Corners, last 5	3.0	5.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.264	0.209
On-target allowed per possession	0.072	0.089
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.159	0.150
Opponents' inside-box share	59.3%	70.6%
Save rate	72.8%	67.2%
Saves, last 5	2.0	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.14	—
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.8%	82.2%
Passes, last 5	442	358
Fouls, last 5	10.6	8.8
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	3
Drawn	1
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	5
Goals, away side	1

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 56.0% · Draw 25.7% · Away 18.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Heerenveen v Telstar

eredivisie · 12:30 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	12	14
Position last season	8	14
Points this season	5	4
Goal difference this season	-2	-6
Elo rating going in	1,560	1,538
Matches on record, all seasons	559	45
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	3	1
Failed to score, last 10	3	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	1
Days since last match	7	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.2	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.2	8.0
Shots on target, last 5	5.2	2.4
Shots per possession	0.242	0.219
On-target shots per possession	0.091	0.085
Inside-box shots per possession	0.161	0.174
Share of shots from inside the box	66.5%	78.9%
Expected goals, last 5	0.96	1.33
Possession, last 5	52.4%	42.2%
Corners, last 5	4.2	4.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.370	0.288
On-target allowed per possession	0.114	0.116
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.221	0.202
Opponents' inside-box share	58.8%	69.5%
Save rate	73.2%	68.3%
Saves, last 5	3.0	4.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.50	2.05
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	86.5%	78.7%
Passes, last 5	442	365
Fouls, last 5	7.0	11.2
Cards, last 5	0.8	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	2
Drawn	0
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	6
Goals, away side	2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 58.4% · Draw 20.8% · Away 20.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Coventry v Brighton

premier-league · 13:00 UK

Finished 0–5. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	19	9
Position last season	1	8
Points this season	0	4
Goal difference this season	-5	+3
Elo rating going in	1,622	1,742
Matches on record, all seasons	640	627
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	1.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	3	4
Failed to score, last 10	5	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	3	0
Days since last match	8	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.0	17.6
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	5.4
Shots per possession	0.242	0.243
On-target shots per possession	0.074	0.088
Inside-box shots per possession	0.165	0.179
Share of shots from inside the box	66.8%	74.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.13	2.27
Possession, last 5	48.8%	66.4%
Corners, last 5	4.8	5.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.238	0.284
On-target allowed per possession	0.066	0.102
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.165	0.217
Opponents' inside-box share	67.2%	70.7%
Save rate	59.4%	64.3%
Saves, last 5	1.8	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.37	1.33
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.0%	88.0%
Passes, last 5	418	566
Fouls, last 5	11.4	11.0
Cards, last 5	1.4	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	1
Drawn	0
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	3
Goals, away side	2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 24.7% · Draw 25.8% · Away 49.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Lecce v Monza

serie-a · 13:00 UK

Finished 3–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	14	16
Position last season	17	—
Points this season	3	1
Goal difference this season	-3	-4
Elo rating going in	1,529	1,439
Matches on record, all seasons	269	117
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	1
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	2.6
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	0.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	2.2
Clean sheets, last 10	3	0
Failed to score, last 10	5	5
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	6	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	0.8
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	2.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.8	11.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.2	3.8
Shots per possession	0.252	0.209
On-target shots per possession	0.098	0.068
Inside-box shots per possession	0.162	0.140
Share of shots from inside the box	61.7%	65.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.15	1.05
Possession, last 5	36.2%	49.4%
Corners, last 5	3.8	3.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.225	0.264
On-target allowed per possession	0.094	0.098
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.160	0.174
Opponents' inside-box share	72.0%	67.6%
Save rate	73.9%	59.2%
Saves, last 5	4.6	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.95	1.20
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	74.6%	85.0%
Passes, last 5	319	446
Fouls, last 5	11.6	11.4
Cards, last 5	2.6	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	2
Drawn	4
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	6
Goals, away side	4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 34.4% · Draw 32.1% · Away 33.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Lille v Estac Troyes

ligue-1 · 13:00 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	9
Position last season	3	—
Points this season	7	4
Goal difference this season	+3	-3
Elo rating going in	1,703	1,405
Matches on record, all seasons	589	193
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	0.5	2.1
Clean sheets, last 10	7	1
Failed to score, last 10	2	3
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	3	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	10	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.8	11.6
Shots on target, last 5	4.6	3.2
Shots per possession	0.225	0.238
On-target shots per possession	0.107	0.080
Inside-box shots per possession	0.150	0.162
Share of shots from inside the box	66.6%	69.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.11	0.66
Possession, last 5	47.0%	39.0%
Corners, last 5	2.2	5.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.213	0.330
On-target allowed per possession	0.066	0.129
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.137	0.217
Opponents' inside-box share	67.8%	64.8%
Save rate	75.4%	70.1%
Saves, last 5	3.6	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.05	1.15
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	83.5%	77.0%
Passes, last 5	428	334
Fouls, last 5	10.4	7.4
Cards, last 5	2.0	0.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	2
Drawn	5
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	14
Goals, away side	15

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 67.5% · Draw 19.5% · Away 13.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

RB Leipzig v Hamburger SV

bundesliga · 13:30 UK

Finished 5–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	7	18
Position last season	3	13
Points this season	3	0
Goal difference this season	+1	-7
Elo rating going in	1,667	1,486
Matches on record, all seasons	342	312
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	2.4	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	2.2	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	2.4
Clean sheets, last 10	3	0
Failed to score, last 10	0	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	2
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.0	11.4
Shots on target, last 5	6.4	3.8
Shots per possession	0.312	0.260
On-target shots per possession	0.134	0.096
Inside-box shots per possession	0.222	0.155
Share of shots from inside the box	69.2%	58.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.93	1.27
Possession, last 5	58.4%	44.2%
Corners, last 5	4.4	2.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.281	0.304
On-target allowed per possession	0.101	0.119
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.190	0.209
Opponents' inside-box share	67.5%	65.2%
Save rate	63.0%	65.9%
Saves, last 5	2.8	4.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.88	1.44
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	86.5%	81.5%
Passes, last 5	551	392
Fouls, last 5	8.4	12.8
Cards, last 5	1.4	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	4
Drawn	1
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	11
Goals, away side	6

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 70.6% · Draw 16.7% · Away 12.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Gençlerbirliği S.K. v Kasımpaşa

super-lig · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	6	6
Position last season	14	13
Points this season	7	6
Goal difference this season	-3	+1
Elo rating going in	1,539	1,603
Matches on record, all seasons	350	498
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	9
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	3	3
Failed to score, last 10	3	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	5
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.6	9.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	3.6
Shots per possession	0.266	0.224
On-target shots per possession	0.091	0.085
Inside-box shots per possession	0.146	0.119
Share of shots from inside the box	56.6%	53.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.27	1.06
Possession, last 5	42.8%	34.8%
Corners, last 5	3.0	2.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.265	0.209
On-target allowed per possession	0.107	0.074
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.205	0.134
Opponents' inside-box share	80.1%	64.1%
Save rate	71.9%	67.2%
Saves, last 5	6.2	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.70	0.76
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	77.8%	76.0%
Passes, last 5	354	322
Fouls, last 5	12.0	13.4
Cards, last 5	1.4	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	18
Home side won	8
Drawn	5
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	23
Goals, away side	24

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 40.4% · Draw 30.5% · Away 29.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Levante v Barcelona

la-liga · 14:15 UK

Finished 2–4. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	10	1
Position last season	18	1
Points this season	5	12
Goal difference this season	+0	+15
Elo rating going in	1,589	1,890
Matches on record, all seasons	632	612
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	12
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	3.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	2.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	0.8
Clean sheets, last 10	4	5
Failed to score, last 10	4	1
Wins in a row	0	4
Unbeaten run	3	4
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	2.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	1.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.0	19.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.2	8.0
Shots per possession	0.326	0.225
On-target shots per possession	0.111	0.096
Inside-box shots per possession	0.207	0.172
Share of shots from inside the box	59.9%	76.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.71	3.10
Possession, last 5	42.6%	68.8%
Corners, last 5	4.4	6.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.235	0.278
On-target allowed per possession	0.099	0.087
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.149	0.189
Opponents' inside-box share	62.0%	69.8%
Save rate	70.8%	70.4%
Saves, last 5	4.6	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.43	0.88
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.2%	89.5%
Passes, last 5	370	654
Fouls, last 5	9.2	8.6
Cards, last 5	1.2	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	24
Home side won	2
Drawn	3
Away side won	19
Goals, home side	21
Goals, away side	71

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 6.3% · Draw 10.0% · Away 83.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Valladolid v Oviedo

laliga-2 · 14:15 UK

Finished 0–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	15	12
Position last season	16	20
Points this season	4	5
Goal difference this season	-2	+0
Elo rating going in	1,384	1,502
Matches on record, all seasons	484	428
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	5
Goals scored, last 5	0.4	0.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	0.7	0.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	3	4
Failed to score, last 10	4	8
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	2	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	0.8	0.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.4	0.4
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.4	14.0
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	3.0
Shots per possession	0.205	0.255
On-target shots per possession	0.057	0.058
Inside-box shots per possession	0.129	0.167
Share of shots from inside the box	64.4%	63.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.18	0.29
Possession, last 5	49.8%	50.0%
Corners, last 5	3.6	6.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.243	0.244
On-target allowed per possession	0.089	0.074
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.148	0.146
Opponents' inside-box share	60.8%	60.3%
Save rate	68.2%	67.9%
Saves, last 5	3.0	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	3.29	2.65
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.5%	79.5%
Passes, last 5	443	404
Fouls, last 5	12.2	12.4
Cards, last 5	3.4	2.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	6
Drawn	0
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	12
Goals, away side	7

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 37.7% · Draw 32.3% · Away 30.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

PEC Zwolle v Feyenoord

eredivisie · 14:45 UK

Finished 0–7. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	13	2
Position last season	15	2
Points this season	4	11
Goal difference this season	-4	+6
Elo rating going in	1,500	1,740
Matches on record, all seasons	443	544
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	11
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	2.6
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	2.2
Goals conceded, last 10	2.3	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	0
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	1	14
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	9	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	2.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.8	0.8
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.6	21.6
Shots on target, last 5	3.0	7.4
Shots per possession	0.221	0.350
On-target shots per possession	0.080	0.130
Inside-box shots per possession	0.133	0.230
Share of shots from inside the box	59.6%	66.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.02	2.83
Possession, last 5	39.2%	54.8%
Corners, last 5	3.2	6.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.308	0.219
On-target allowed per possession	0.105	0.059
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.188	0.141
Opponents' inside-box share	61.1%	64.1%
Save rate	65.0%	66.0%
Saves, last 5	4.6	1.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.60	0.96
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	72.5%	88.2%
Passes, last 5	294	483
Fouls, last 5	10.6	8.8
Cards, last 5	1.4	0.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	26
Home side won	5
Drawn	2
Away side won	19
Goals, home side	25
Goals, away side	64

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 14.9% · Draw 19.0% · Away 66.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Manchester United v Manchester City

premier-league · 15:30 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	11	1
Position last season	3	2
Points this season	4	9
Goal difference this season	+1	+5
Elo rating going in	1,798	1,916
Matches on record, all seasons	611	611
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	10
Goals scored, last 5	2.6	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	2.0	2.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	0.9
Clean sheets, last 10	3	4
Failed to score, last 10	2	0
Wins in a row	0	3
Unbeaten run	2	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	21.6	15.2
Shots on target, last 5	7.0	5.4
Shots per possession	0.336	0.279
On-target shots per possession	0.115	0.092
Inside-box shots per possession	0.218	0.196
Share of shots from inside the box	60.4%	72.2%
Expected goals, last 5	3.15	1.66
Possession, last 5	56.6%	64.6%
Corners, last 5	5.4	6.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.277	0.284
On-target allowed per possession	0.093	0.090
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.190	0.206
Opponents' inside-box share	69.1%	72.5%
Save rate	70.9%	70.8%
Saves, last 5	2.6	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.48	1.30
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	86.8%	89.5%
Passes, last 5	523	651
Fouls, last 5	9.2	8.6
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	11
Drawn	5
Away side won	16
Goals, home side	36
Goals, away side	57

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 30.4% · Draw 24.8% · Away 44.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Napoli v Bologna

serie-a · 16:00 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	10	15
Position last season	2	8
Points this season	3	1
Goal difference this season	+0	-2
Elo rating going in	1,757	1,641
Matches on record, all seasons	611	573
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	5	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	5
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.6	14.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.2	4.2
Shots per possession	0.254	0.218
On-target shots per possession	0.077	0.062
Inside-box shots per possession	0.168	0.137
Share of shots from inside the box	61.6%	62.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.08	1.29
Possession, last 5	54.0%	55.8%
Corners, last 5	3.8	5.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.265	0.230
On-target allowed per possession	0.099	0.070
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.172	0.145
Opponents' inside-box share	63.5%	62.0%
Save rate	70.9%	62.1%
Saves, last 5	3.0	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.70	0.82
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	89.8%	88.5%
Passes, last 5	515	509
Fouls, last 5	6.8	13.2
Cards, last 5	1.2	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	30
Home side won	16
Drawn	6
Away side won	8
Goals, home side	68
Goals, away side	36

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 51.9% · Draw 26.9% · Away 21.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Getafe v Deportivo La Coruna

la-liga · 16:30 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	13	4
Position last season	7	2
Points this season	4	8
Goal difference this season	-3	+3
Elo rating going in	1,581	1,559
Matches on record, all seasons	620	402
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	8
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	0.6	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	6	0
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	1	4
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	6	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.8	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	0.8
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.0	7.8
Shots on target, last 5	1.8	3.4
Shots per possession	0.210	0.233
On-target shots per possession	0.043	0.101
Inside-box shots per possession	0.129	0.165
Share of shots from inside the box	61.7%	68.1%
Expected goals, last 5	0.59	0.96
Possession, last 5	45.8%	42.0%
Corners, last 5	3.8	2.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.203	0.214
On-target allowed per possession	0.076	0.066
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.121	0.128
Opponents' inside-box share	61.2%	59.4%
Save rate	71.1%	72.6%
Saves, last 5	3.2	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.21	1.57
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	74.2%	86.8%
Passes, last 5	329	444
Fouls, last 5	13.2	13.6
Cards, last 5	3.0	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	6
Drawn	3
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	20
Goals, away side	9

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 39.2% · Draw 33.6% · Away 27.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Mallorca v Sabadell

laliga-2 · 16:30 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	3
Position last season	17	—
Points this season	7	8
Goal difference this season	+3	+2
Elo rating going in	1,563	1,451
Matches on record, all seasons	474	46
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	11
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	0.4	0.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	0.8
Clean sheets, last 10	5	6
Failed to score, last 10	3	4
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	2	6
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	8	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	0.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.4	14.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	4.8
Shots per possession	0.216	0.264
On-target shots per possession	0.081	0.083
Inside-box shots per possession	0.138	0.162
Share of shots from inside the box	62.5%	56.9%
Expected goals, last 5	2.65	—
Possession, last 5	55.2%	40.6%
Corners, last 5	4.0	4.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.239	0.196
On-target allowed per possession	0.064	0.061
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.154	0.100
Opponents' inside-box share	60.7%	53.1%
Save rate	69.5%	73.9%
Saves, last 5	2.0	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.29	—
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	87.5%	67.2%
Passes, last 5	470	305
Fouls, last 5	12.2	15.0
Cards, last 5	2.4	3.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	1
Drawn	0
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	1
Goals, away side	1

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 53.7% · Draw 26.4% · Away 19.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Arouca v Santa Clara

primeira-liga · 17:00 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	5	3
Position last season	9	12
Points this season	10	11
Goal difference this season	+4	+6
Elo rating going in	1,603	1,592
Matches on record, all seasons	309	243
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	11
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	0.6	0.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	0.9	0.7
Clean sheets, last 10	4	5
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	2	5
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	6	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.2	14.0
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	4.0
Shots per possession	0.217	0.274
On-target shots per possession	0.075	0.063
Inside-box shots per possession	0.121	0.177
Share of shots from inside the box	54.9%	64.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.21	1.36
Possession, last 5	48.8%	46.4%
Corners, last 5	2.6	3.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.288	0.172
On-target allowed per possession	0.089	0.059
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.186	0.099
Opponents' inside-box share	63.9%	54.9%
Save rate	74.1%	74.9%
Saves, last 5	4.6	1.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.59	0.84
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.0%	76.2%
Passes, last 5	455	363
Fouls, last 5	8.4	13.4
Cards, last 5	2.4	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	3
Drawn	3
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	8
Goals, away side	8

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 36.0% · Draw 32.7% · Away 31.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Benfica v GIL Vicente

primeira-liga · 17:00 UK

Finished 3–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	6
Position last season	3	6
Points this season	13	7
Goal difference this season	+15	+2
Elo rating going in	1,897	1,579
Matches on record, all seasons	533	366
Recent form
Points, last 5	13	7
Goals scored, last 5	3.6	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	0.6	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	3.1	0.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	3	4
Failed to score, last 10	0	5
Wins in a row	4	0
Unbeaten run	54	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	4	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	3.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	21.0	14.0
Shots on target, last 5	8.4	3.4
Shots per possession	0.329	0.260
On-target shots per possession	0.129	0.076
Inside-box shots per possession	0.244	0.157
Share of shots from inside the box	75.4%	59.2%
Expected goals, last 5	2.73	1.05
Possession, last 5	65.2%	52.6%
Corners, last 5	6.8	3.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.208	0.221
On-target allowed per possession	0.068	0.058
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.148	0.134
Opponents' inside-box share	71.4%	55.9%
Save rate	68.0%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	1.0	1.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.55	0.74
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	88.7%	85.2%
Passes, last 5	592	465
Fouls, last 5	12.8	13.8
Cards, last 5	1.4	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	22
Home side won	18
Drawn	2
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	54
Goals, away side	15

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 83.1% · Draw 11.5% · Away 5.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Galatasaray v Kocaelispor

super-lig · 17:00 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	3
Position last season	1	11
Points this season	10	9
Goal difference this season	+6	+2
Elo rating going in	1,894	1,601
Matches on record, all seasons	538	38
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	9
Goals scored, last 5	2.4	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	2.3	0.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	0.9
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	4
Wins in a row	3	3
Unbeaten run	4	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	9	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.4
Scored away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	21.4	10.0
Shots on target, last 5	7.8	3.8
Shots per possession	0.302	0.191
On-target shots per possession	0.108	0.056
Inside-box shots per possession	0.205	0.116
Share of shots from inside the box	68.8%	62.0%
Expected goals, last 5	2.24	0.70
Possession, last 5	61.2%	50.4%
Corners, last 5	5.6	3.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.233	0.256
On-target allowed per possession	0.085	0.065
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.147	0.123
Opponents' inside-box share	63.2%	46.3%
Save rate	62.4%	71.9%
Saves, last 5	2.2	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.68	1.18
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	88.8%	82.2%
Passes, last 5	525	434
Fouls, last 5	9.8	13.8
Cards, last 5	1.4	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	0
Drawn	1
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	1
Goals, away side	2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 74.9% · Draw 16.5% · Away 8.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

PSV Eindhoven v Sparta Rotterdam

eredivisie · 18:00 UK

Finished 4–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	11
Position last season	1	10
Points this season	13	5
Goal difference this season	+12	+0
Elo rating going in	1,860	1,527
Matches on record, all seasons	541	309
Recent form
Points, last 5	13	5
Goals scored, last 5	3.6	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	3.7	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	2.4
Clean sheets, last 10	1	0
Failed to score, last 10	0	3
Wins in a row	4	0
Unbeaten run	11	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	8	9
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Scored away, last 5 there	3.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	21.6	14.2
Shots on target, last 5	9.0	4.8
Shots per possession	0.307	0.296
On-target shots per possession	0.131	0.082
Inside-box shots per possession	0.212	0.206
Share of shots from inside the box	69.2%	68.7%
Expected goals, last 5	2.99	1.46
Possession, last 5	62.0%	49.8%
Corners, last 5	7.8	6.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.235	0.315
On-target allowed per possession	0.108	0.101
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.152	0.212
Opponents' inside-box share	68.3%	66.4%
Save rate	70.0%	59.3%
Saves, last 5	2.4	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.68	2.00
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	89.2%	81.2%
Passes, last 5	588	418
Fouls, last 5	8.6	11.4
Cards, last 5	1.8	0.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	17
Home side won	15
Drawn	2
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	40
Goals, away side	13

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 81.0% · Draw 11.1% · Away 7.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Sassuolo v Juventus

serie-a · 18:45 UK

Finished 3–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	10	4
Position last season	11	6
Points this season	4	7
Goal difference this season	+0	+3
Elo rating going in	1,570	1,753
Matches on record, all seasons	459	611
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	8
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	0.6
Clean sheets, last 10	2	6
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	2	4
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.4	19.6
Shots on target, last 5	5.6	5.8
Shots per possession	0.300	0.293
On-target shots per possession	0.108	0.091
Inside-box shots per possession	0.183	0.182
Share of shots from inside the box	61.8%	62.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.70	1.89
Possession, last 5	50.0%	57.0%
Corners, last 5	3.6	8.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.294	0.221
On-target allowed per possession	0.095	0.064
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.179	0.122
Opponents' inside-box share	58.2%	54.5%
Save rate	68.7%	74.8%
Saves, last 5	3.2	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.96	0.50
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	87.0%	85.0%
Passes, last 5	454	477
Fouls, last 5	10.2	15.2
Cards, last 5	1.4	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	24
Home side won	4
Drawn	4
Away side won	16
Goals, home side	22
Goals, away side	56

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 18.0% · Draw 24.2% · Away 57.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Stade Brestois 29 v Paris Saint Germain

ligue-1 · 18:45 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	12
Position last season	12	1
Points this season	5	2
Goal difference this season	+1	-1
Elo rating going in	1,569	1,790
Matches on record, all seasons	361	588
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.8
Goals conceded, last 10	2.1	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	0	4
Failed to score, last 10	2	0
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	4	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	8	9
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	19.2	15.8
Shots on target, last 5	6.4	4.8
Shots per possession	0.272	0.260
On-target shots per possession	0.096	0.084
Inside-box shots per possession	0.189	0.147
Share of shots from inside the box	69.9%	59.0%
Expected goals, last 5	2.25	1.26
Possession, last 5	49.8%	67.0%
Corners, last 5	5.4	5.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.268	0.295
On-target allowed per possession	0.092	0.135
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.173	0.199
Opponents' inside-box share	64.1%	65.4%
Save rate	59.5%	66.2%
Saves, last 5	1.8	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.13	1.81
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	82.2%	89.8%
Passes, last 5	415	740
Fouls, last 5	13.0	6.8
Cards, last 5	1.0	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	19
Home side won	0
Drawn	2
Away side won	17
Goals, home side	15
Goals, away side	46

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 8.8% · Draw 13.9% · Away 77.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Real Sociedad v Atletico Madrid

la-liga · 19:00 UK

Finished 0–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	9	6
Position last season	10	4
Points this season	7	7
Goal difference this season	-2	+1
Elo rating going in	1,606	1,727
Matches on record, all seasons	613	612
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	1	3
Failed to score, last 10	3	2
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	3	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	6	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	1.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	2.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.0	14.0
Shots on target, last 5	5.4	4.8
Shots per possession	0.213	0.265
On-target shots per possession	0.083	0.087
Inside-box shots per possession	0.135	0.170
Share of shots from inside the box	63.6%	68.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.21	0.91
Possession, last 5	49.0%	55.4%
Corners, last 5	7.4	6.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.344	0.288
On-target allowed per possession	0.129	0.094
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.201	0.191
Opponents' inside-box share	57.8%	65.9%
Save rate	72.8%	67.2%
Saves, last 5	5.0	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.65	1.80
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	85.7%	87.5%
Passes, last 5	473	546
Fouls, last 5	12.4	12.6
Cards, last 5	2.4	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	5
Drawn	6
Away side won	21
Goals, home side	27
Goals, away side	59

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 32.1% · Draw 27.1% · Away 40.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Tenerife v Leganes

laliga-2 · 19:00 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	1
Position last season	—	16
Points this season	7	8
Goal difference this season	+2	+2
Elo rating going in	1,402	1,457
Matches on record, all seasons	390	406
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	11
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	0.2
Goals scored, last 10	0.7	0.6
Goals conceded, last 10	0.9	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	2	5
Failed to score, last 10	5	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	1	5
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	8	9
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	0.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	1.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.6	7.6
Shots on target, last 5	3.0	3.0
Shots per possession	0.197	0.228
On-target shots per possession	0.052	0.089
Inside-box shots per possession	0.113	0.148
Share of shots from inside the box	58.3%	63.7%
Expected goals, last 5	—	0.37
Possession, last 5	45.0%	40.0%
Corners, last 5	4.2	2.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.172	0.267
On-target allowed per possession	0.050	0.087
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.105	0.163
Opponents' inside-box share	55.8%	62.4%
Save rate	65.2%	71.6%
Saves, last 5	2.8	4.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	—	1.31
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	77.2%	74.0%
Passes, last 5	376	342
Fouls, last 5	13.0	14.2
Cards, last 5	2.6	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	2
Drawn	4
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	5
Goals, away side	5

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 37.5% · Draw 31.8% · Away 30.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Famalicao v Sporting CP

primeira-liga · 19:30 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	12	2
Position last season	5	2
Points this season	3	13
Goal difference this season	-2	+9
Elo rating going in	1,627	1,906
Matches on record, all seasons	243	533
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	13
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	2.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	2.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	4	3
Failed to score, last 10	3	0
Wins in a row	0	4
Unbeaten run	2	10
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	8	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	3.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.0	11.8
Shots on target, last 5	2.8	5.6
Shots per possession	0.188	0.224
On-target shots per possession	0.065	0.100
Inside-box shots per possession	0.107	0.153
Share of shots from inside the box	56.8%	64.7%
Expected goals, last 5	0.82	1.47
Possession, last 5	60.0%	61.8%
Corners, last 5	6.2	5.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.216	0.238
On-target allowed per possession	0.057	0.068
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.148	0.127
Opponents' inside-box share	67.7%	48.6%
Save rate	63.7%	70.4%
Saves, last 5	1.6	1.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.06	0.68
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	86.5%	89.0%
Passes, last 5	511	507
Fouls, last 5	11.8	11.2
Cards, last 5	2.0	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	14
Home side won	2
Drawn	3
Away side won	9
Goals, home side	13
Goals, away side	23

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 16.8% · Draw 20.6% · Away 62.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.