Latest · All reports · The data behind it · This day's report

The data behind the ratings

Monday 14 September 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

Como v Parma

serie-a · 16:30 UK
Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position115
Position last season412
Points this season71
Goal difference this season+4-3
Elo rating going in1,7321,542
Matches on record, all seasons79383
Recent form
Points, last 5134
Goals scored, last 52.40.4
Goals conceded, last 50.81.0
Goals scored, last 101.90.7
Goals conceded, last 101.01.1
Clean sheets, last 1043
Failed to score, last 1014
Wins in a row20
Unbeaten run81
Losses in a row00
Days since last match108
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there—1.0
Scored away, last 5 there2.4—
Conceded away, last 5 there0.8—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 519.87.6
Shots on target, last 56.82.6
Shots per possession0.2770.186
On-target shots per possession0.0910.058
Inside-box shots per possession0.1790.121
Share of shots from inside the box66.6%68.5%
Expected goals, last 51.940.63
Possession, last 563.2%44.4%
Corners, last 58.02.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.2460.253
On-target allowed per possession0.0650.077
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1580.172
Opponents' inside-box share66.4%68.3%
Save rate65.2%73.8%
Saves, last 51.23.6
Expected goals conceded, last 51.211.52
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy88.2%81.5%
Passes, last 5554341
Fouls, last 59.011.2
Cards, last 51.01.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record4
Home side won2
Drawn2
Away side won0
Goals, home side3
Goals, away side1
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 79.1% · Draw 14.4% · Away 6.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Torino v AS Roma

serie-a · 16:30 UK
Finished 0–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position131
Position last season133
Points this season39
Goal difference this season-1+9
Elo rating going in1,5801,768
Matches on record, all seasons535611
Recent form
Points, last 5415
Goals scored, last 51.42.8
Goals conceded, last 51.80.2
Goals scored, last 101.32.7
Goals conceded, last 101.50.4
Clean sheets, last 1017
Failed to score, last 1020
Wins in a row18
Unbeaten run110
Losses in a row00
Days since last match99
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—2.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there—0.4
Scored away, last 5 there0.8—
Conceded away, last 5 there1.4—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 59.421.2
Shots on target, last 53.48.0
Shots per possession0.2260.284
On-target shots per possession0.0570.115
Inside-box shots per possession0.1440.211
Share of shots from inside the box60.8%74.6%
Expected goals, last 51.002.67
Possession, last 550.6%61.4%
Corners, last 53.46.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.3050.194
On-target allowed per possession0.1030.069
Inside-box allowed per possession0.2100.107
Opponents' inside-box share69.1%57.3%
Save rate66.7%75.9%
Saves, last 52.82.4
Expected goals conceded, last 51.490.64
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy84.0%87.8%
Passes, last 5460567
Fouls, last 510.211.4
Cards, last 50.61.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record28
Home side won4
Drawn5
Away side won19
Goals, home side26
Goals, away side50
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 15.9% · Draw 22.3% · Away 61.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Gaziantep FK v Fenerbahçe

super-lig · 17:00 UK
Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position54
Position last season122
Points this season76
Goal difference this season+2+2
Elo rating going in1,5581,836
Matches on record, all seasons260538
Recent form
Points, last 577
Goals scored, last 51.62.2
Goals conceded, last 51.41.8
Goals scored, last 101.32.3
Goals conceded, last 101.61.5
Clean sheets, last 1023
Failed to score, last 1021
Wins in a row10
Unbeaten run10
Losses in a row01
Days since last match79
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—2.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there—2.0
Scored away, last 5 there1.4—
Conceded away, last 5 there1.8—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 512.418.0
Shots on target, last 54.47.0
Shots per possession0.2710.310
On-target shots per possession0.0880.122
Inside-box shots per possession0.1590.199
Share of shots from inside the box58.5%62.2%
Expected goals, last 51.092.12
Possession, last 553.2%57.4%
Corners, last 53.86.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.3030.257
On-target allowed per possession0.0930.089
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1900.140
Opponents' inside-box share61.1%54.9%
Save rate67.2%65.6%
Saves, last 51.62.2
Expected goals conceded, last 51.630.85
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy82.8%88.8%
Passes, last 5441518
Fouls, last 512.612.6
Cards, last 52.22.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record14
Home side won2
Drawn0
Away side won12
Goals, home side14
Goals, away side38
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 16.4% · Draw 22.1% · Away 61.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Rio Ave v Estrela

primeira-liga · 17:45 UK
Finished 3–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position146
Position last season1315
Points this season39
Goal difference this season-9+2
Elo rating going in1,5341,529
Matches on record, all seasons501109
Recent form
Points, last 539
Goals scored, last 50.42.2
Goals conceded, last 52.21.8
Goals scored, last 100.61.6
Goals conceded, last 102.01.7
Clean sheets, last 1021
Failed to score, last 1062
Wins in a row01
Unbeaten run07
Losses in a row20
Days since last match84
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there—1.4
Scored away, last 5 there0.6—
Conceded away, last 5 there1.6—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 56.611.2
Shots on target, last 51.84.8
Shots per possession0.2040.243
On-target shots per possession0.0610.093
Inside-box shots per possession0.1240.172
Share of shots from inside the box59.2%71.2%
Expected goals, last 50.511.47
Possession, last 542.0%45.0%
Corners, last 53.03.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.2850.222
On-target allowed per possession0.1000.079
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1820.128
Opponents' inside-box share63.6%56.9%
Save rate64.3%64.1%
Saves, last 53.63.2
Expected goals conceded, last 51.621.74
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy80.5%82.0%
Passes, last 5358358
Fouls, last 57.811.4
Cards, last 51.42.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record6
Home side won3
Drawn2
Away side won1
Goals, home side9
Goals, away side6
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 35.4% · Draw 29.4% · Away 35.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Inter v Udinese

serie-a · 18:45 UK
Finished 5–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position110
Position last season110
Points this season94
Goal difference this season+5+0
Elo rating going in1,8661,588
Matches on record, all seasons611611
Recent form
Points, last 5114
Goals scored, last 52.41.0
Goals conceded, last 51.41.4
Goals scored, last 102.61.5
Goals conceded, last 101.21.1
Clean sheets, last 1043
Failed to score, last 1003
Wins in a row30
Unbeaten run130
Losses in a row01
Days since last match97
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there2.60.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there0.81.0
Scored away, last 5 there——
Conceded away, last 5 there——
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 520.011.6
Shots on target, last 56.23.8
Shots per possession0.2700.286
On-target shots per possession0.0940.111
Inside-box shots per possession0.2010.188
Share of shots from inside the box75.0%65.3%
Expected goals, last 52.330.89
Possession, last 565.6%45.2%
Corners, last 56.62.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.3050.270
On-target allowed per possession0.0880.078
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1920.169
Opponents' inside-box share62.6%60.4%
Save rate69.8%68.8%
Saves, last 52.64.0
Expected goals conceded, last 51.031.43
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy89.2%81.2%
Passes, last 5614407
Fouls, last 58.012.2
Cards, last 51.22.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record32
Home side won21
Drawn3
Away side won8
Goals, home side63
Goals, away side36
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 77.1% · Draw 14.6% · Away 8.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Leeds v Newcastle

premier-league · 19:00 UK
Finished 4–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position85
Position last season1412
Points this season55
Goal difference this season+1+2
Elo rating going in1,7331,736
Matches on record, all seasons666619
Recent form
Points, last 588
Goals scored, last 50.81.8
Goals conceded, last 51.01.4
Goals scored, last 101.51.5
Goals conceded, last 101.01.4
Clean sheets, last 1031
Failed to score, last 1012
Wins in a row00
Unbeaten run33
Losses in a row00
Days since last match99
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—2.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there—1.6
Scored away, last 5 there1.0—
Conceded away, last 5 there1.4—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 510.810.8
Shots on target, last 52.83.4
Shots per possession0.2760.242
On-target shots per possession0.0910.081
Inside-box shots per possession0.1930.155
Share of shots from inside the box69.0%63.5%
Expected goals, last 50.981.05
Possession, last 543.4%49.6%
Corners, last 54.85.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.2870.327
On-target allowed per possession0.0980.111
Inside-box allowed per possession0.2120.198
Opponents' inside-box share72.9%62.2%
Save rate70.8%71.2%
Saves, last 54.64.8
Expected goals conceded, last 51.971.51
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy74.2%82.8%
Passes, last 5335426
Fouls, last 511.611.6
Cards, last 51.62.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record10
Home side won2
Drawn5
Away side won3
Goals, home side14
Goals, away side14
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 41.5% · Draw 27.1% · Away 31.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Villarreal v Real Betis

la-liga · 19:00 UK
Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position163
Position last season35
Points this season29
Goal difference this season-2+0
Elo rating going in1,6991,709
Matches on record, all seasons574536
Recent form
Points, last 5512
Goals scored, last 52.21.4
Goals conceded, last 51.81.2
Goals scored, last 102.11.6
Goals conceded, last 101.71.3
Clean sheets, last 1004
Failed to score, last 1020
Wins in a row01
Unbeaten run01
Losses in a row20
Days since last match910
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there3.21.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there1.80.4
Scored away, last 5 there——
Conceded away, last 5 there——
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 514.816.2
Shots on target, last 56.45.8
Shots per possession0.2420.298
On-target shots per possession0.0960.109
Inside-box shots per possession0.1620.162
Share of shots from inside the box66.7%52.5%
Expected goals, last 52.061.31
Possession, last 558.6%54.4%
Corners, last 56.84.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.2910.302
On-target allowed per possession0.0920.126
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1610.210
Opponents' inside-box share59.2%68.2%
Save rate65.6%72.4%
Saves, last 51.84.4
Expected goals conceded, last 51.171.96
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy88.0%88.0%
Passes, last 5562524
Fouls, last 510.29.8
Cards, last 51.81.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record26
Home side won11
Drawn6
Away side won9
Goals, home side37
Goals, away side29
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 49.5% · Draw 24.5% · Away 26.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Moreirense v Maritimo

primeira-liga · 19:15 UK
Finished 3–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position138
Position last season7—
Points this season47
Goal difference this season-8-2
Elo rating going in1,5611,490
Matches on record, all seasons411433
Recent form
Points, last 547
Goals scored, last 50.81.2
Goals conceded, last 52.41.6
Goals scored, last 100.91.2
Goals conceded, last 102.01.6
Clean sheets, last 1032
Failed to score, last 1041
Wins in a row00
Unbeaten run00
Losses in a row22
Days since last match59
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there1.21.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there1.61.2
Scored away, last 5 there——
Conceded away, last 5 there——
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 56.610.8
Shots on target, last 52.43.4
Shots per possession0.2020.264
On-target shots per possession0.0700.080
Inside-box shots per possession0.1190.171
Share of shots from inside the box57.7%67.7%
Expected goals, last 50.331.20
Possession, last 535.8%42.6%
Corners, last 52.42.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.2550.257
On-target allowed per possession0.0810.089
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1810.172
Opponents' inside-box share73.0%66.6%
Save rate58.6%65.7%
Saves, last 53.64.0
Expected goals conceded, last 51.281.17
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy73.0%78.8%
Passes, last 5320353
Fouls, last 514.215.8
Cards, last 53.61.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record18
Home side won6
Drawn5
Away side won7
Goals, home side19
Goals, away side21
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 37.8% · Draw 29.8% · Away 32.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

SC Braga v Estoril

primeira-liga · 19:45 UK
Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position816
Position last season410
Points this season72
Goal difference this season+1-5
Elo rating going in1,7301,534
Matches on record, all seasons532371
Recent form
Points, last 582
Goals scored, last 51.60.4
Goals conceded, last 51.41.4
Goals scored, last 101.50.5
Goals conceded, last 101.41.4
Clean sheets, last 1021
Failed to score, last 1005
Wins in a row00
Unbeaten run01
Losses in a row10
Days since last match47
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—0.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there—1.4
Scored away, last 5 there1.6—
Conceded away, last 5 there1.8—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 512.012.6
Shots on target, last 54.44.8
Shots per possession0.1530.228
On-target shots per possession0.0560.083
Inside-box shots per possession0.0890.136
Share of shots from inside the box54.8%61.1%
Expected goals, last 51.390.83
Possession, last 564.6%45.6%
Corners, last 54.45.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.2490.228
On-target allowed per possession0.0920.078
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1350.150
Opponents' inside-box share51.2%70.2%
Save rate63.1%61.1%
Saves, last 51.82.0
Expected goals conceded, last 50.391.56
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy85.3%80.0%
Passes, last 5619389
Fouls, last 514.612.0
Cards, last 51.82.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record22
Home side won14
Drawn4
Away side won4
Goals, home side47
Goals, away side16
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 67.0% · Draw 20.2% · Away 12.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.