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The data behind the ratings

Tuesday 15 September 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

Rayo Vallecano v Espanyol

la-liga · 17:00 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	15	7
Position last season	8	11
Points this season	4	7
Goal difference this season	-6	+3
Elo rating going in	1,619	1,572
Matches on record, all seasons	595	625
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	2.8	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	0	1
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	2
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	1.2
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.6	1.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.8	10.0
Shots on target, last 5	5.6	3.4
Shots per possession	0.261	0.258
On-target shots per possession	0.120	0.093
Inside-box shots per possession	0.150	0.144
Share of shots from inside the box	61.0%	54.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.16	0.93
Possession, last 5	44.4%	46.6%
Corners, last 5	6.0	1.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.280	0.221
On-target allowed per possession	0.103	0.088
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.176	0.151
Opponents' inside-box share	62.1%	66.4%
Save rate	68.5%	70.5%
Saves, last 5	3.4	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.32	0.73
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	75.7%	83.3%
Passes, last 5	344	339
Fouls, last 5	14.0	15.8
Cards, last 5	2.4	2.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	22
Home side won	8
Drawn	3
Away side won	11
Goals, home side	28
Goals, away side	36

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 42.5% · Draw 27.6% · Away 30.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Ajax v Willem II

eredivisie · 18:00 UK

Finished 5–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	5	15
Position last season	5	—
Points this season	10	2
Goal difference this season	+8	-9
Elo rating going in	1,707	1,392
Matches on record, all seasons	542	377
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	2
Goals scored, last 5	2.8	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	2.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.9	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	2.4
Clean sheets, last 10	5	0
Failed to score, last 10	2	1
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	3	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	2.6	1.2
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.2	2.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	20.8	11.6
Shots on target, last 5	7.2	2.4
Shots per possession	0.330	0.297
On-target shots per possession	0.111	0.085
Inside-box shots per possession	0.206	0.205
Share of shots from inside the box	61.6%	69.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.80	1.53
Possession, last 5	59.6%	38.8%
Corners, last 5	6.4	4.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.255	0.272
On-target allowed per possession	0.100	0.108
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.167	0.192
Opponents' inside-box share	64.1%	71.9%
Save rate	72.1%	64.6%
Saves, last 5	3.6	4.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.02	2.23
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	89.0%	71.7%
Passes, last 5	539	341
Fouls, last 5	9.8	10.2
Cards, last 5	2.6	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	21
Home side won	17
Drawn	2
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	56
Goals, away side	15

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 85.2% · Draw 9.0% · Away 5.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Alaves v Valencia

la-liga · 18:00 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	20
Position last season	14	9
Points this season	10	1
Goal difference this season	+6	-9
Elo rating going in	1,601	1,590
Matches on record, all seasons	393	613
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	1
Goals scored, last 5	2.2	0.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	4	2
Failed to score, last 10	0	5
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	4
Days since last match	3	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	1.4
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	1.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.6	8.4
Shots on target, last 5	5.4	2.2
Shots per possession	0.306	0.264
On-target shots per possession	0.118	0.077
Inside-box shots per possession	0.196	0.164
Share of shots from inside the box	63.6%	61.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.49	1.02
Possession, last 5	44.8%	44.2%
Corners, last 5	5.2	3.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.180	0.235
On-target allowed per possession	0.065	0.077
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.127	0.148
Opponents' inside-box share	68.9%	64.1%
Save rate	67.3%	67.7%
Saves, last 5	3.0	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.64	0.93
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	79.0%	84.0%
Passes, last 5	321	422
Fouls, last 5	14.4	10.2
Cards, last 5	2.4	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	18
Home side won	6
Drawn	5
Away side won	7
Goals, home side	22
Goals, away side	27

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 52.2% · Draw 29.0% · Away 18.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Bristol City v Lincoln

championship · 18:45 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	10	16
Position last season	12	1
Points this season	10	8
Goal difference this season	-1	-1
Elo rating going in	1,526	1,569
Matches on record, all seasons	698	320
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	8
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.9	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	1	5
Failed to score, last 10	1	1
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	4
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	1.4
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	0.4
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.8	12.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	3.8
Shots per possession	0.272	0.334
On-target shots per possession	0.094	0.104
Inside-box shots per possession	0.180	0.246
Share of shots from inside the box	61.2%	71.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.02	1.67
Possession, last 5	43.0%	39.2%
Corners, last 5	4.8	4.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.239	0.234
On-target allowed per possession	0.070	0.070
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.154	0.145
Opponents' inside-box share	65.1%	63.2%
Save rate	62.4%	67.3%
Saves, last 5	1.0	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.68	1.34
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	68.5%	68.0%
Passes, last 5	348	282
Fouls, last 5	12.0	13.8
Cards, last 5	1.2	2.0

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 49.5% · Draw 26.2% · Away 24.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Falkirk v Heart Of Midlothian

scottish-prem · 18:45 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	11	2
Position last season	6	2
Points this season	2	12
Goal difference this season	-4	+7
Elo rating going in	1,513	1,684
Matches on record, all seasons	43	525
Recent form
Points, last 5	2	12
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	2.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	0.8	2.1
Goals conceded, last 10	2.1	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	0
Wins in a row	0	4
Unbeaten run	1	4
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	10	9
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.8	17.2
Shots on target, last 5	2.4	6.0
Shots per possession	0.212	0.309
On-target shots per possession	0.055	0.105
Inside-box shots per possession	0.135	0.201
Share of shots from inside the box	63.6%	65.9%
Expected goals, last 5	0.56	1.72
Possession, last 5	45.0%	47.6%
Corners, last 5	4.4	8.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.295	0.185
On-target allowed per possession	0.106	0.045
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.195	0.119
Opponents' inside-box share	65.3%	63.4%
Save rate	65.8%	62.0%
Saves, last 5	4.6	1.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.80	1.45
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.0%	77.0%
Passes, last 5	394	426
Fouls, last 5	14.8	11.8
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	0
Drawn	0
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	0
Goals, away side	9

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 24.5% · Draw 25.0% · Away 50.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Hibernian v Kilmarnock

scottish-prem · 18:45 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	8	12
Position last season	5	10
Points this season	6	1
Goal difference this season	-2	-10
Elo rating going in	1,589	1,459
Matches on record, all seasons	488	566
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	1
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	2.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	0	3
Failed to score, last 10	1	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	9	10
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	2.0	2.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	1.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.6	10.6
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	4.2
Shots per possession	0.298	0.255
On-target shots per possession	0.085	0.107
Inside-box shots per possession	0.196	0.176
Share of shots from inside the box	63.3%	69.2%
Expected goals, last 5	2.03	0.89
Possession, last 5	46.0%	43.8%
Corners, last 5	6.2	5.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.253	0.266
On-target allowed per possession	0.085	0.089
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.157	0.190
Opponents' inside-box share	63.0%	70.1%
Save rate	70.4%	69.1%
Saves, last 5	3.4	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.61	3.59
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.0%	80.0%
Passes, last 5	430	412
Fouls, last 5	13.8	12.2
Cards, last 5	1.4	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	41
Home side won	20
Drawn	13
Away side won	8
Goals, home side	66
Goals, away side	47

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 63.5% · Draw 20.5% · Away 16.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Middlesbrough v Millwall

championship · 18:45 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	5	11
Position last season	5	3
Points this season	13	9
Goal difference this season	+4	+0
Elo rating going in	1,577	1,580
Matches on record, all seasons	698	704
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	6
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	2	5
Failed to score, last 10	2	3
Wins in a row	2	0
Unbeaten run	4	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.8	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.2	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.8
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.5	15.2
Shots on target, last 5	5.2	4.8
Shots per possession	0.309	0.305
On-target shots per possession	0.083	0.083
Inside-box shots per possession	0.202	0.220
Share of shots from inside the box	65.5%	72.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.91	1.85
Possession, last 5	54.5%	48.5%
Corners, last 5	5.8	6.5
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.294	0.262
On-target allowed per possession	0.098	0.074
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.194	0.156
Opponents' inside-box share	67.8%	57.6%
Save rate	61.5%	62.6%
Saves, last 5	2.8	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.17	2.17
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	89.5%	78.5%
Passes, last 5	509	357
Fouls, last 5	11.5	13.0
Cards, last 5	1.0	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	26
Home side won	11
Drawn	6
Away side won	9
Goals, home side	39
Goals, away side	25

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 61.5% · Draw 21.0% · Away 17.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Motherwell v Aberdeen

scottish-prem · 18:45 UK

Finished 0–4. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	5	10
Position last season	4	9
Points this season	8	4
Goal difference this season	+3	-5
Elo rating going in	1,593	1,469
Matches on record, all seasons	602	602
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	0.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	0.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	3	3
Failed to score, last 10	3	5
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	10	10
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.0	9.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	2.4
Shots per possession	0.253	0.205
On-target shots per possession	0.083	0.055
Inside-box shots per possession	0.172	0.129
Share of shots from inside the box	67.9%	64.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.69	1.26
Possession, last 5	56.8%	48.4%
Corners, last 5	5.0	5.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.324	0.284
On-target allowed per possession	0.091	0.100
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.218	0.182
Opponents' inside-box share	62.2%	65.0%
Save rate	61.4%	70.4%
Saves, last 5	3.0	4.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.54	1.80
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	88.3%	74.0%
Passes, last 5	583	381
Fouls, last 5	12.4	12.6
Cards, last 5	1.6	3.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	50
Home side won	19
Drawn	9
Away side won	22
Goals, home side	64
Goals, away side	73

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 52.5% · Draw 25.0% · Away 22.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Elche v Real Madrid

la-liga · 19:30 UK

Finished 2–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	19	2
Position last season	13	2
Points this season	2	12
Goal difference this season	-7	+10
Elo rating going in	1,549	1,843
Matches on record, all seasons	447	613
Recent form
Points, last 5	2	12
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	2.8
Goals conceded, last 5	2.6	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	2.3
Goals conceded, last 10	2.0	0.8
Clean sheets, last 10	1	4
Failed to score, last 10	1	2
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	1	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	3.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.8	17.8
Shots on target, last 5	5.2	8.6
Shots per possession	0.192	0.267
On-target shots per possession	0.071	0.110
Inside-box shots per possession	0.125	0.193
Share of shots from inside the box	64.4%	73.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.06	1.91
Possession, last 5	51.8%	57.4%
Corners, last 5	5.2	8.5
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.249	0.292
On-target allowed per possession	0.106	0.089
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.181	0.168
Opponents' inside-box share	71.6%	58.9%
Save rate	57.7%	74.9%
Saves, last 5	2.4	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.99	0.59
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	85.0%	92.7%
Passes, last 5	489	510
Fouls, last 5	13.0	7.8
Cards, last 5	2.2	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	12
Home side won	0
Drawn	3
Away side won	9
Goals, home side	10
Goals, away side	32

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 8.7% · Draw 13.3% · Away 78.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.