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The data behind the ratings

Thursday 17 September 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

Real Betis v Getafe

la-liga · 17:00 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	14
Position last season	5	7
Points this season	12	5
Goal difference this season	+1	-3
Elo rating going in	1,720	1,579
Matches on record, all seasons	537	621
Recent form
Points, last 5	12	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	0.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	4	3
Failed to score, last 10	0	5
Wins in a row	2	0
Unbeaten run	2	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	3	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.8	10.8
Shots on target, last 5	6.6	2.0
Shots per possession	0.330	0.236
On-target shots per possession	0.133	0.055
Inside-box shots per possession	0.192	0.140
Share of shots from inside the box	53.9%	59.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.24	0.69
Possession, last 5	49.2%	42.4%
Corners, last 5	4.8	4.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.299	0.201
On-target allowed per possession	0.122	0.075
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.207	0.120
Opponents' inside-box share	67.7%	61.7%
Save rate	72.4%	72.3%
Saves, last 5	4.6	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.85	1.39
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	87.0%	75.5%
Passes, last 5	476	332
Fouls, last 5	9.2	12.6
Cards, last 5	1.6	3.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	26
Home side won	10
Drawn	7
Away side won	9
Goals, home side	29
Goals, away side	27

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 57.4% · Draw 25.6% · Away 16.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

AFC Wimbledon v Milton Keynes Dons

league-one · 19:00 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	7	20
Position last season	19	—
Points this season	10	5
Goal difference this season	-2	-2
Elo rating going in	1,324	1,375
Matches on record, all seasons	317	505
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	0.7	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	5	2
Failed to score, last 10	4	4
Wins in a row	2	0
Unbeaten run	2	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	5	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	0.6	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.4	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.2	13.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.0	3.0
Shots per possession	0.219	0.337
On-target shots per possession	0.069	0.080
Inside-box shots per possession	0.126	0.245
Share of shots from inside the box	59.3%	71.4%
Expected goals, last 5	0.52	0.95
Possession, last 5	47.6%	42.2%
Corners, last 5	5.8	4.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.281	0.285
On-target allowed per possession	0.101	0.105
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.200	0.186
Opponents' inside-box share	71.6%	64.0%
Save rate	73.1%	68.1%
Saves, last 5	4.2	4.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.84	2.05
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	66.0%	70.5%
Passes, last 5	315	309
Fouls, last 5	15.0	11.0
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	9
Home side won	1
Drawn	3
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	5
Goals, away side	10

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 33.0% · Draw 26.5% · Away 40.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Malaga v Villarreal

la-liga · 19:30 UK

Finished 1–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	17	18
Position last season	4	3
Points this season	3	2
Goal difference this season	-6	-3
Elo rating going in	1,539	1,687
Matches on record, all seasons	609	575
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	2
Goals scored, last 5	0.4	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	0.8	2.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	4	0
Failed to score, last 10	4	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	3
Days since last match	4	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	3.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.8	14.8
Shots on target, last 5	1.8	6.4
Shots per possession	0.235	0.237
On-target shots per possession	0.066	0.100
Inside-box shots per possession	0.149	0.163
Share of shots from inside the box	64.3%	68.4%
Expected goals, last 5	0.95	1.92
Possession, last 5	52.4%	61.4%
Corners, last 5	5.0	7.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.243	0.342
On-target allowed per possession	0.082	0.118
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.127	0.199
Opponents' inside-box share	49.8%	58.0%
Save rate	72.8%	68.6%
Saves, last 5	3.8	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.42	1.18
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	87.7%	88.7%
Passes, last 5	517	586
Fouls, last 5	11.4	11.0
Cards, last 5	2.2	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	14
Home side won	3
Drawn	4
Away side won	7
Goals, home side	13
Goals, away side	18

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 26.9% · Draw 24.4% · Away 48.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.