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The data behind the ratings

Friday 18 September 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

Kasımpaşa v Konyaspor

super-lig · 17:00 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	16
Position last season	13	9
Points this season	9	3
Goal difference this season	+2	-4
Elo rating going in	1,613	1,566
Matches on record, all seasons	499	465
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	3
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	3
Wins in a row	1	1
Unbeaten run	6	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	5	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.4	11.6
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	3.2
Shots per possession	0.235	0.263
On-target shots per possession	0.081	0.087
Inside-box shots per possession	0.122	0.170
Share of shots from inside the box	51.8%	65.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.20	0.89
Possession, last 5	40.6%	46.4%
Corners, last 5	3.4	2.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.210	0.300
On-target allowed per possession	0.075	0.121
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.136	0.179
Opponents' inside-box share	64.4%	58.6%
Save rate	69.8%	71.0%
Saves, last 5	2.6	4.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.90	1.32
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	77.8%	80.2%
Passes, last 5	351	379
Fouls, last 5	14.4	12.8
Cards, last 5	2.8	2.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	26
Home side won	4
Drawn	10
Away side won	12
Goals, home side	33
Goals, away side	47

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 39.5% · Draw 28.2% · Away 32.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Groningen v PEC Zwolle

eredivisie · 18:00 UK

Finished 3–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	8	16
Position last season	9	15
Points this season	8	4
Goal difference this season	-1	-11
Elo rating going in	1,531	1,495
Matches on record, all seasons	526	444
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	4
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	2.4	3.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.8	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	2.0	2.8
Clean sheets, last 10	0	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	6	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.2	9.4
Shots on target, last 5	5.2	3.2
Shots per possession	0.262	0.206
On-target shots per possession	0.103	0.078
Inside-box shots per possession	0.178	0.114
Share of shots from inside the box	66.2%	53.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.92	1.17
Possession, last 5	47.2%	40.6%
Corners, last 5	4.2	3.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.293	0.318
On-target allowed per possession	0.117	0.117
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.211	0.203
Opponents' inside-box share	70.3%	63.2%
Save rate	63.7%	62.6%
Saves, last 5	4.0	4.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.10	1.63
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.7%	72.7%
Passes, last 5	418	323
Fouls, last 5	7.6	10.0
Cards, last 5	1.2	0.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	24
Home side won	10
Drawn	6
Away side won	8
Goals, home side	32
Goals, away side	22

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 57.8% · Draw 23.7% · Away 18.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Albacete v Cordoba

laliga-2 · 18:30 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	21	19
Position last season	11	10
Points this season	1	3
Goal difference this season	-5	-5
Elo rating going in	1,441	1,428
Matches on record, all seasons	345	253
Recent form
Points, last 5	1	3
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	2.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	1	1
Failed to score, last 10	3	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	3
Days since last match	6	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.0	16.4
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	4.4
Shots per possession	0.301	0.317
On-target shots per possession	0.117	0.090
Inside-box shots per possession	0.196	0.213
Share of shots from inside the box	63.1%	67.2%
Expected goals, last 5	—	—
Possession, last 5	48.4%	56.0%
Corners, last 5	5.4	5.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.261	0.311
On-target allowed per possession	0.094	0.114
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.162	0.198
Opponents' inside-box share	60.3%	60.3%
Save rate	75.2%	64.2%
Saves, last 5	3.4	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	—	—
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.7%	80.7%
Passes, last 5	404	409
Fouls, last 5	12.0	15.2
Cards, last 5	1.8	3.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	3
Drawn	2
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	11
Goals, away side	11

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 39.9% · Draw 25.9% · Away 34.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Bayern München v Union Berlin

bundesliga · 18:30 UK

Finished 7–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	15
Position last season	1	11
Points this season	7	1
Goal difference this season	+5	-6
Elo rating going in	1,862	1,508
Matches on record, all seasons	547	243
Recent form
Points, last 5	13	7
Goals scored, last 5	2.6	2.2
Goals conceded, last 5	0.6	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	3.2	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	2.2
Clean sheets, last 10	3	1
Failed to score, last 10	1	1
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	18	0
Losses in a row	0	2
Days since last match	5	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Scored away, last 5 there	2.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	19.8	15.2
Shots on target, last 5	7.2	7.2
Shots per possession	0.288	0.281
On-target shots per possession	0.108	0.112
Inside-box shots per possession	0.179	0.204
Share of shots from inside the box	63.3%	71.5%
Expected goals, last 5	2.94	2.76
Possession, last 5	70.4%	49.2%
Corners, last 5	7.4	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.372	0.254
On-target allowed per possession	0.135	0.103
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.266	0.162
Opponents' inside-box share	70.8%	63.9%
Save rate	67.8%	56.7%
Saves, last 5	2.0	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.63	1.18
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	87.3%	78.3%
Passes, last 5	755	410
Fouls, last 5	8.2	10.0
Cards, last 5	0.8	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	14
Home side won	9
Drawn	5
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	35
Goals, away side	10

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 91.4% · Draw 5.4% · Away 3.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Monaco v Lens

ligue-1 · 18:45 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	9
Position last season	7	2
Points this season	10	4
Goal difference this season	+4	+1
Elo rating going in	1,687	1,668
Matches on record, all seasons	514	296
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	7
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	2.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	2.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	4	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	6	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	2.0	2.2
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	1.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.6	15.2
Shots on target, last 5	5.0	6.4
Shots per possession	0.233	0.362
On-target shots per possession	0.090	0.133
Inside-box shots per possession	0.145	0.246
Share of shots from inside the box	62.3%	67.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.34	2.96
Possession, last 5	46.6%	50.0%
Corners, last 5	4.4	7.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.312	0.241
On-target allowed per possession	0.107	0.081
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.190	0.164
Opponents' inside-box share	60.6%	68.5%
Save rate	65.2%	61.9%
Saves, last 5	3.6	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.11	1.79
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	85.0%	85.3%
Passes, last 5	454	456
Fouls, last 5	10.6	11.4
Cards, last 5	2.0	2.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	16
Home side won	5
Drawn	5
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	22
Goals, away side	30

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 45.9% · Draw 25.7% · Away 28.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Monza v Sassuolo

serie-a · 18:45 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	18	9
Position last season	—	11
Points this season	1	7
Goal difference this season	-5	+1
Elo rating going in	1,433	1,583
Matches on record, all seasons	118	460
Recent form
Points, last 5	1	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	2.6	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	2.4	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	0	2
Failed to score, last 10	4	2
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	3
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	5	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.4	14.4
Shots on target, last 5	5.2	5.6
Shots per possession	0.221	0.291
On-target shots per possession	0.081	0.108
Inside-box shots per possession	0.150	0.177
Share of shots from inside the box	66.8%	61.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.46	1.41
Possession, last 5	48.0%	44.2%
Corners, last 5	4.2	3.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.264	0.299
On-target allowed per possession	0.096	0.097
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.183	0.187
Opponents' inside-box share	72.4%	60.0%
Save rate	55.6%	69.2%
Saves, last 5	1.8	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.16	0.99
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	83.0%	87.2%
Passes, last 5	414	406
Fouls, last 5	12.4	10.2
Cards, last 5	1.2	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	3
Drawn	1
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	5
Goals, away side	2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 32.7% · Draw 27.8% · Away 39.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Brentford v Chelsea

premier-league · 19:00 UK

Finished 3–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	5	4
Position last season	9	10
Points this season	6	7
Goal difference this season	+3	+1
Elo rating going in	1,741	1,749
Matches on record, all seasons	665	612
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	2.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	2.0
Clean sheets, last 10	3	0
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	6	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	6	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.8	13.6
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	5.4
Shots per possession	0.287	0.284
On-target shots per possession	0.081	0.093
Inside-box shots per possession	0.213	0.178
Share of shots from inside the box	72.0%	57.0%
Expected goals, last 5	2.36	1.85
Possession, last 5	45.4%	46.8%
Corners, last 5	4.0	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.297	0.253
On-target allowed per possession	0.102	0.107
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.181	0.187
Opponents' inside-box share	60.3%	72.1%
Save rate	71.2%	66.2%
Saves, last 5	4.4	4.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.66	1.58
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.0%	77.0%
Passes, last 5	370	404
Fouls, last 5	14.2	9.6
Cards, last 5	2.4	3.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	3
Drawn	4
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	13
Goals, away side	10

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 34.7% · Draw 25.0% · Away 40.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Bristol City v Watford

championship · 19:00 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	13	17
Position last season	12	16
Points this season	10	8
Goal difference this season	-2	-2
Elo rating going in	1,515	1,461
Matches on record, all seasons	699	652
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	0.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	2.1
Clean sheets, last 10	1	0
Failed to score, last 10	2	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	2	1
Days since last match	3	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.2	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.6	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.8	11.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.2	3.2
Shots per possession	0.279	0.277
On-target shots per possession	0.086	0.086
Inside-box shots per possession	0.185	0.196
Share of shots from inside the box	61.2%	69.2%
Expected goals, last 5	0.61	1.30
Possession, last 5	51.0%	46.8%
Corners, last 5	7.2	3.5
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.231	0.280
On-target allowed per possession	0.062	0.091
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.145	0.159
Opponents' inside-box share	63.7%	59.0%
Save rate	61.8%	62.0%
Saves, last 5	1.2	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.38	0.73
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	74.0%	78.0%
Passes, last 5	414	406
Fouls, last 5	12.2	10.2
Cards, last 5	1.4	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	14
Home side won	3
Drawn	6
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	15
Goals, away side	21

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 51.0% · Draw 25.9% · Away 23.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Espanyol v Elche

la-liga · 19:00 UK

Finished 1–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	8	20
Position last season	11	13
Points this season	7	2
Goal difference this season	+2	-8
Elo rating going in	1,565	1,545
Matches on record, all seasons	626	448
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	1
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	3.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	2.0
Clean sheets, last 10	3	1
Failed to score, last 10	0	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	1
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.6	11.8
Shots on target, last 5	3.2	4.6
Shots per possession	0.248	0.189
On-target shots per possession	0.094	0.070
Inside-box shots per possession	0.140	0.121
Share of shots from inside the box	55.1%	63.5%
Expected goals, last 5	0.62	0.89
Possession, last 5	45.0%	50.8%
Corners, last 5	3.0	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.228	0.276
On-target allowed per possession	0.084	0.103
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.152	0.199
Opponents' inside-box share	64.6%	70.7%
Save rate	69.2%	59.2%
Saves, last 5	3.2	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.96	2.81
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	83.0%	83.5%
Passes, last 5	317	469
Fouls, last 5	15.4	14.8
Cards, last 5	2.4	2.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	12
Home side won	4
Drawn	5
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	19
Goals, away side	16

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 52.3% · Draw 27.3% · Away 20.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.