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The data behind the ratings

Saturday 19 September 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

Barnsley v Leicester

league-one · 11:30 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	18	13
Position last season	15	21
Points this season	7	8
Goal difference this season	-5	-2
Elo rating going in	1,366	1,473
Matches on record, all seasons	706	618
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	4	3
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	1.2
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	1.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.0	15.0
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	5.0
Shots per possession	0.247	0.275
On-target shots per possession	0.060	0.086
Inside-box shots per possession	0.156	0.160
Share of shots from inside the box	63.8%	55.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.22	1.31
Possession, last 5	58.4%	65.5%
Corners, last 5	8.2	6.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.290	0.329
On-target allowed per possession	0.100	0.099
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.204	0.213
Opponents' inside-box share	67.3%	66.5%
Save rate	58.8%	62.1%
Saves, last 5	1.4	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.05	0.64
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	68.5%	87.0%
Passes, last 5	369	568
Fouls, last 5	12.8	10.0
Cards, last 5	2.2	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	2
Drawn	2
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	8
Goals, away side	9

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 29.7% · Draw 24.7% · Away 45.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Burton Albion v Mansfield Town

league-one · 11:30 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	11	17
Position last season	17	10
Points this season	8	7
Goal difference this season	+0	-3
Elo rating going in	1,366	1,409
Matches on record, all seasons	501	98
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	1	3
Failed to score, last 10	1	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.4	11.8
Shots on target, last 5	3.4	3.6
Shots per possession	0.280	0.284
On-target shots per possession	0.104	0.111
Inside-box shots per possession	0.173	0.192
Share of shots from inside the box	61.5%	66.1%
Expected goals, last 5	0.41	1.35
Possession, last 5	38.4%	43.8%
Corners, last 5	3.0	2.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.214	0.255
On-target allowed per possession	0.061	0.078
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.147	0.171
Opponents' inside-box share	67.6%	67.9%
Save rate	59.0%	62.8%
Saves, last 5	2.4	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.70	1.40
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	69.0%	71.0%
Passes, last 5	319	341
Fouls, last 5	15.4	15.0
Cards, last 5	2.2	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	1
Drawn	3
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	6
Goals, away side	5

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 39.2% · Draw 27.9% · Away 32.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Cardiff v Charlton

championship · 11:30 UK

Finished 3–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	21	7
Position last season	2	20
Points this season	4	12
Goal difference this season	-4	-1
Elo rating going in	1,478	1,492
Matches on record, all seasons	685	705
Recent form
Points, last 5	2	6
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	0.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	1	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	2
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	21.8	11.8
Shots on target, last 5	8.0	2.0
Shots per possession	0.288	0.295
On-target shots per possession	0.107	0.096
Inside-box shots per possession	0.199	0.178
Share of shots from inside the box	68.2%	59.9%
Expected goals, last 5	2.27	0.87
Possession, last 5	65.2%	42.2%
Corners, last 5	9.0	5.5
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.344	0.248
On-target allowed per possession	0.170	0.075
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.225	0.153
Opponents' inside-box share	65.7%	60.9%
Save rate	66.7%	71.4%
Saves, last 5	3.0	2.5
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.53	0.91
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	83.0%	83.0%
Passes, last 5	508	336
Fouls, last 5	10.5	10.2
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	1
Drawn	5
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	10
Goals, away side	11

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 53.9% · Draw 23.3% · Away 22.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Millwall v West Ham

championship · 11:30 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	11	1
Position last season	3	18
Points this season	10	14
Goal difference this season	+0	+11
Elo rating going in	1,582	1,669
Matches on record, all seasons	705	626
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	13
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	3.4
Goals conceded, last 5	2.6	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	2.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	5	3
Failed to score, last 10	3	1
Wins in a row	0	4
Unbeaten run	1	5
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	4	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	3.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.2	15.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	6.0
Shots per possession	0.320	0.296
On-target shots per possession	0.097	0.121
Inside-box shots per possession	0.256	0.223
Share of shots from inside the box	77.4%	75.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.09	0.73
Possession, last 5	40.5%	54.0%
Corners, last 5	4.8	5.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.269	0.260
On-target allowed per possession	0.076	0.091
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.164	0.172
Opponents' inside-box share	59.9%	63.8%
Save rate	63.5%	61.2%
Saves, last 5	3.0	1.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	3.21	1.30
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.0%	84.0%
Passes, last 5	310	486
Fouls, last 5	12.5	8.8
Cards, last 5	1.2	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	0
Drawn	1
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	1
Goals, away side	2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 21.7% · Draw 25.0% · Away 53.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Stoke City v Sheffield Utd

championship · 11:30 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	9	14
Position last season	17	13
Points this season	10	9
Goal difference this season	+0	-1
Elo rating going in	1,461	1,522
Matches on record, all seasons	679	684
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.9	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	3
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	4	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.2	7.5
Shots on target, last 5	5.2	3.5
Shots per possession	0.278	0.219
On-target shots per possession	0.079	0.080
Inside-box shots per possession	0.178	0.153
Share of shots from inside the box	65.7%	71.7%
Expected goals, last 5	0.88	1.53
Possession, last 5	49.8%	38.2%
Corners, last 5	4.8	3.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.258	0.291
On-target allowed per possession	0.091	0.104
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.180	0.226
Opponents' inside-box share	69.1%	76.5%
Save rate	59.8%	64.7%
Saves, last 5	3.5	4.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.64	2.27
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	86.0%	67.0%
Passes, last 5	409	325
Fouls, last 5	15.0	13.0
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	2
Drawn	2
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	10
Goals, away side	19

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 40.8% · Draw 27.7% · Away 31.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Tottenham v Aston Villa

premier-league · 11:30 UK

Finished 2–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	17	19
Position last season	17	4
Points this season	2	1
Goal difference this season	-5	-6
Elo rating going in	1,638	1,762
Matches on record, all seasons	612	642
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	4
Goals scored, last 5	0.2	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	0.8	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	4	1
Failed to score, last 10	4	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	0.8	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.0	2.0
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.2	9.0
Shots on target, last 5	2.8	2.2
Shots per possession	0.238	0.212
On-target shots per possession	0.062	0.070
Inside-box shots per possession	0.162	0.129
Share of shots from inside the box	67.0%	60.0%
Expected goals, last 5	0.89	0.80
Possession, last 5	57.6%	48.0%
Corners, last 5	6.8	3.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.272	0.304
On-target allowed per possession	0.070	0.113
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.173	0.174
Opponents' inside-box share	61.1%	60.1%
Save rate	63.4%	67.2%
Saves, last 5	2.0	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.71	2.02
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	87.0%	82.3%
Passes, last 5	499	426
Fouls, last 5	14.4	9.2
Cards, last 5	1.4	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	26
Home side won	18
Drawn	1
Away side won	7
Goals, home side	53
Goals, away side	24

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 47.3% · Draw 26.8% · Away 25.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Osasuna v Rayo Vallecano

la-liga · 12:00 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	13	12
Position last season	16	8
Points this season	7	7
Goal difference this season	-7	-5
Elo rating going in	1,569	1,626
Matches on record, all seasons	546	596
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	2.4	2.6
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	2.0	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	2	1
Failed to score, last 10	4	0
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	3	0
Days since last match	3	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	8.8	13.8
Shots on target, last 5	3.4	5.4
Shots per possession	0.230	0.268
On-target shots per possession	0.090	0.110
Inside-box shots per possession	0.149	0.153
Share of shots from inside the box	64.8%	60.6%
Expected goals, last 5	2.19	0.74
Possession, last 5	47.0%	45.0%
Corners, last 5	1.8	6.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.224	0.298
On-target allowed per possession	0.088	0.108
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.133	0.182
Opponents' inside-box share	56.0%	60.0%
Save rate	60.7%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	2.4	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.39	2.33
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	82.5%	77.0%
Passes, last 5	423	366
Fouls, last 5	13.6	12.4
Cards, last 5	2.4	2.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	18
Home side won	9
Drawn	4
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	26
Goals, away side	21

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 37.5% · Draw 29.4% · Away 33.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Real Sociedad II v Mallorca

laliga-2 · 12:00 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	2
Position last season	15	17
Points this season	8	10
Goal difference this season	+2	+5
Elo rating going in	1,411	1,568
Matches on record, all seasons	89	475
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	0.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	0.8
Clean sheets, last 10	1	6
Failed to score, last 10	2	3
Wins in a row	1	1
Unbeaten run	4	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.2
Scored away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.8	12.4
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	4.6
Shots per possession	0.300	0.247
On-target shots per possession	0.099	0.095
Inside-box shots per possession	0.191	0.146
Share of shots from inside the box	65.3%	60.6%
Expected goals, last 5	—	—
Possession, last 5	41.0%	50.4%
Corners, last 5	3.8	3.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.237	0.236
On-target allowed per possession	0.082	0.062
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.156	0.151
Opponents' inside-box share	65.6%	60.4%
Save rate	69.8%	73.8%
Saves, last 5	4.5	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	—	—
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	74.3%	88.7%
Passes, last 5	352	467
Fouls, last 5	17.8	12.0
Cards, last 5	2.4	2.4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 23.6% · Draw 25.6% · Away 50.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Bologna v Torino

serie-a · 13:00 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	16	14
Position last season	8	13
Points this season	1	3
Goal difference this season	-3	-3
Elo rating going in	1,636	1,574
Matches on record, all seasons	574	536
Recent form
Points, last 5	2	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	2	1
Failed to score, last 10	6	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	1
Days since last match	6	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.2	8.8
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	3.4
Shots per possession	0.211	0.215
On-target shots per possession	0.060	0.058
Inside-box shots per possession	0.128	0.139
Share of shots from inside the box	59.4%	60.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.17	0.94
Possession, last 5	53.2%	50.2%
Corners, last 5	4.2	3.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.239	0.302
On-target allowed per possession	0.072	0.106
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.160	0.217
Opponents' inside-box share	66.7%	72.1%
Save rate	63.5%	65.8%
Saves, last 5	2.4	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.08	1.64
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	89.5%	83.2%
Passes, last 5	496	460
Fouls, last 5	14.0	9.0
Cards, last 5	1.6	0.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	26
Home side won	8
Drawn	9
Away side won	9
Goals, home side	29
Goals, away side	33

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 48.9% · Draw 27.4% · Away 23.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Udinese v Cagliari

serie-a · 13:00 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	13	4
Position last season	10	14
Points this season	4	9
Goal difference this season	-2	+2
Elo rating going in	1,585	1,585
Matches on record, all seasons	612	536
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	12
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	0.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	3	4
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	0	2
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	5	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	2.2	1.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	1.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.8	13.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	5.4
Shots per possession	0.271	0.297
On-target shots per possession	0.109	0.099
Inside-box shots per possession	0.181	0.187
Share of shots from inside the box	66.9%	62.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.00	1.34
Possession, last 5	39.4%	43.6%
Corners, last 5	2.0	4.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.279	0.262
On-target allowed per possession	0.091	0.078
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.172	0.173
Opponents' inside-box share	59.7%	63.6%
Save rate	65.7%	70.9%
Saves, last 5	4.8	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.96	1.61
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.4%	85.6%
Passes, last 5	368	399
Fouls, last 5	12.0	9.0
Cards, last 5	2.6	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	28
Home side won	14
Drawn	8
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	46
Goals, away side	25

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 42.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 27.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Borussia Mönchengladbach v FSV Mainz 05

bundesliga · 13:30 UK

Finished 3–4. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	18	6
Position last season	12	10
Points this season	0	4
Goal difference this season	-9	+3
Elo rating going in	1,516	1,569
Matches on record, all seasons	547	547
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	3.0	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.9	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	3	3
Failed to score, last 10	4	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	3	1
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Scored away, last 5 there	0.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.8	17.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	5.8
Shots per possession	0.258	0.346
On-target shots per possession	0.081	0.128
Inside-box shots per possession	0.175	0.252
Share of shots from inside the box	68.0%	72.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.08	2.17
Possession, last 5	50.4%	50.4%
Corners, last 5	5.0	6.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.319	0.224
On-target allowed per possession	0.150	0.081
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.223	0.159
Opponents' inside-box share	69.8%	70.4%
Save rate	72.8%	65.0%
Saves, last 5	5.6	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.72	1.99
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.3%	82.0%
Passes, last 5	423	428
Fouls, last 5	13.4	12.2
Cards, last 5	2.4	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	13
Drawn	11
Away side won	8
Goals, home side	47
Goals, away side	36

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 31.6% · Draw 25.0% · Away 43.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Eintracht Frankfurt v SC Freiburg

bundesliga · 13:30 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	8	1
Position last season	8	7
Points this season	4	9
Goal difference this season	-1	+9
Elo rating going in	1,587	1,612
Matches on record, all seasons	513	513
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	12
Goals scored, last 5	2.2	3.2
Goals conceded, last 5	2.6	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.8	2.2
Goals conceded, last 10	2.2	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	0	3
Failed to score, last 10	0	1
Wins in a row	1	4
Unbeaten run	1	4
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	3.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.8	14.0
Shots on target, last 5	5.4	5.4
Shots per possession	0.257	0.275
On-target shots per possession	0.099	0.098
Inside-box shots per possession	0.161	0.177
Share of shots from inside the box	61.7%	64.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.68	1.25
Possession, last 5	51.6%	49.6%
Corners, last 5	4.8	4.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.356	0.246
On-target allowed per possession	0.154	0.074
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.247	0.149
Opponents' inside-box share	68.9%	62.4%
Save rate	70.1%	66.1%
Saves, last 5	5.2	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.73	1.23
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.0%	84.0%
Passes, last 5	451	445
Fouls, last 5	10.2	10.2
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	28
Home side won	10
Drawn	11
Away side won	7
Goals, home side	41
Goals, away side	34

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 39.7% · Draw 24.5% · Away 35.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Hamburger SV v 1. FC Köln

bundesliga · 13:30 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	18	11
Position last season	13	14
Points this season	0	4
Goal difference this season	-12	-2
Elo rating going in	1,482	1,485
Matches on record, all seasons	313	413
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	4
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	3.0	3.0
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	2.6	2.3
Clean sheets, last 10	0	0
Failed to score, last 10	4	0
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	3	0
Days since last match	6	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.6	15.6
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	5.2
Shots per possession	0.275	0.355
On-target shots per possession	0.095	0.131
Inside-box shots per possession	0.165	0.261
Share of shots from inside the box	57.6%	72.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.49	1.29
Possession, last 5	44.2%	45.4%
Corners, last 5	3.4	6.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.298	0.260
On-target allowed per possession	0.117	0.093
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.198	0.176
Opponents' inside-box share	63.2%	65.2%
Save rate	62.8%	56.7%
Saves, last 5	3.4	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.70	2.05
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.3%	83.0%
Passes, last 5	404	414
Fouls, last 5	14.4	8.2
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	14
Home side won	4
Drawn	3
Away side won	7
Goals, home side	21
Goals, away side	26

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 34.9% · Draw 26.2% · Away 38.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Werder Bremen v FC Augsburg

bundesliga · 13:30 UK

Finished 3–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	8	3
Position last season	15	9
Points this season	4	7
Goal difference this season	-1	+6
Elo rating going in	1,516	1,574
Matches on record, all seasons	515	513
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	2.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	2.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.9	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	0	1
Failed to score, last 10	2	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	2	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.0	15.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	7.2
Shots per possession	0.264	0.390
On-target shots per possession	0.100	0.164
Inside-box shots per possession	0.154	0.274
Share of shots from inside the box	58.8%	69.1%
Expected goals, last 5	0.68	2.24
Possession, last 5	41.6%	42.4%
Corners, last 5	3.8	5.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.307	0.323
On-target allowed per possession	0.106	0.101
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.194	0.212
Opponents' inside-box share	62.0%	64.4%
Save rate	65.3%	73.3%
Saves, last 5	3.8	4.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.07	2.12
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	78.3%	76.3%
Passes, last 5	406	378
Fouls, last 5	10.4	8.4
Cards, last 5	1.2	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	28
Home side won	10
Drawn	4
Away side won	14
Goals, home side	41
Goals, away side	45

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 40.1% · Draw 24.9% · Away 35.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Birmingham v Middlesbrough

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	9	4
Position last season	10	5
Points this season	10	14
Goal difference this season	+1	+4
Elo rating going in	1,556	1,576
Matches on record, all seasons	737	699
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	11
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	2.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	2
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	5
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.5	17.5
Shots on target, last 5	5.2	6.2
Shots per possession	0.275	0.316
On-target shots per possession	0.098	0.082
Inside-box shots per possession	0.201	0.200
Share of shots from inside the box	73.0%	63.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.85	2.46
Possession, last 5	45.5%	56.8%
Corners, last 5	6.2	6.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.242	0.309
On-target allowed per possession	0.080	0.102
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.158	0.232
Opponents' inside-box share	67.9%	73.4%
Save rate	63.1%	58.7%
Saves, last 5	2.5	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.42	1.40
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	66.0%	88.0%
Passes, last 5	313	509
Fouls, last 5	13.0	9.8
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	26
Home side won	6
Drawn	5
Away side won	15
Goals, home side	25
Goals, away side	40

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 33.8% · Draw 26.7% · Away 39.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Blackpool v Plymouth

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 2–4. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	10	6
Position last season	13	8
Points this season	8	10
Goal difference this season	+2	+2
Elo rating going in	1,416	1,475
Matches on record, all seasons	683	374
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	10
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	1.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	4	2
Failed to score, last 10	0	1
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	1	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.2	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.8	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.2	12.5
Shots on target, last 5	4.6	4.8
Shots per possession	0.334	0.390
On-target shots per possession	0.131	0.139
Inside-box shots per possession	0.230	0.253
Share of shots from inside the box	66.0%	63.3%
Expected goals, last 5	2.21	0.96
Possession, last 5	46.6%	39.5%
Corners, last 5	4.8	5.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.316	0.208
On-target allowed per possession	0.098	0.051
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.186	0.128
Opponents' inside-box share	55.5%	64.2%
Save rate	76.8%	62.9%
Saves, last 5	5.4	1.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.31	1.40
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	69.5%	60.0%
Passes, last 5	369	259
Fouls, last 5	10.0	13.2
Cards, last 5	1.2	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	2
Drawn	3
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	10
Goals, away side	13

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 35.7% · Draw 24.6% · Away 39.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Brighton v Arsenal

premier-league · 14:00 UK

Finished 3–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	1
Position last season	8	1
Points this season	7	12
Goal difference this season	+8	+7
Elo rating going in	1,750	1,942
Matches on record, all seasons	628	612
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	15
Goals scored, last 5	2.6	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	0.4
Goals scored, last 10	2.2	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	0.4
Clean sheets, last 10	4	7
Failed to score, last 10	2	0
Wins in a row	1	9
Unbeaten run	2	9
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	6	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	2.2	1.4
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	0.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	18.2	14.2
Shots on target, last 5	5.2	5.8
Shots per possession	0.249	0.243
On-target shots per possession	0.086	0.093
Inside-box shots per possession	0.182	0.172
Share of shots from inside the box	74.0%	70.8%
Expected goals, last 5	2.01	1.79
Possession, last 5	67.0%	59.8%
Corners, last 5	4.4	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.309	0.215
On-target allowed per possession	0.112	0.053
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.239	0.124
Opponents' inside-box share	71.3%	55.4%
Save rate	66.7%	72.0%
Saves, last 5	3.0	1.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.65	0.52
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	89.0%	89.7%
Passes, last 5	571	501
Fouls, last 5	12.6	10.4
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	18
Home side won	5
Drawn	5
Away side won	8
Goals, home side	18
Goals, away side	25

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 19.8% · Draw 23.8% · Away 56.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Bromley v Huddersfield

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	22	2
Position last season	—	9
Points this season	5	12
Goal difference this season	-11	+6
Elo rating going in	1,374	1,432
Matches on record, all seasons	6	688
Recent form
Points, last 5	2	9
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	3.4	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	—	1.9
Goals conceded, last 10	—	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	1	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	1	7
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.7	2.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	3.0	1.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.8	15.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	5.2
Shots per possession	0.262	0.321
On-target shots per possession	0.102	0.108
Inside-box shots per possession	0.162	0.229
Share of shots from inside the box	62.0%	67.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.05	1.85
Possession, last 5	38.0%	55.0%
Corners, last 5	3.8	5.5
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.261	0.243
On-target allowed per possession	0.113	0.062
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.179	0.143
Opponents' inside-box share	68.2%	57.0%
Save rate	62.6%	60.6%
Saves, last 5	4.2	1.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.64	1.14
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	62.0%	75.0%
Passes, last 5	250	422
Fouls, last 5	15.5	12.5
Cards, last 5	1.0	0.6

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 17.6% · Draw 22.8% · Away 59.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Burnley v Derby

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	24	22
Position last season	19	8
Points this season	3	4
Goal difference this season	-8	-7
Elo rating going in	1,548	1,487
Matches on record, all seasons	625	707
Recent form
Points, last 5	2	3
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	2.0	1.9
Clean sheets, last 10	0	1
Failed to score, last 10	1	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	3
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.2	10.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	1.8
Shots per possession	0.289	0.254
On-target shots per possession	0.086	0.082
Inside-box shots per possession	0.151	0.179
Share of shots from inside the box	51.2%	67.6%
Expected goals, last 5	0.95	0.59
Possession, last 5	52.5%	55.2%
Corners, last 5	5.0	8.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.315	0.327
On-target allowed per possession	0.102	0.144
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.217	0.226
Opponents' inside-box share	71.4%	71.1%
Save rate	60.4%	68.2%
Saves, last 5	2.5	4.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.92	3.33
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	87.0%	76.0%
Passes, last 5	487	438
Fouls, last 5	10.0	13.0
Cards, last 5	2.2	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	6
Drawn	4
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	15
Goals, away side	3

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 54.0% · Draw 24.8% · Away 21.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Dundee v Motherwell

scottish-prem · 14:00 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	6	5
Position last season	8	4
Points this season	7	8
Goal difference this season	+1	-1
Elo rating going in	1,479	1,578
Matches on record, all seasons	390	603
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	4	3
Failed to score, last 10	1	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	2
Days since last match	13	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.4	15.6
Shots on target, last 5	3.4	4.8
Shots per possession	0.268	0.252
On-target shots per possession	0.087	0.080
Inside-box shots per possession	0.190	0.169
Share of shots from inside the box	71.0%	66.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.54	1.53
Possession, last 5	42.2%	60.2%
Corners, last 5	3.4	5.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.290	0.328
On-target allowed per possession	0.084	0.092
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.179	0.217
Opponents' inside-box share	61.3%	61.0%
Save rate	76.0%	58.5%
Saves, last 5	4.2	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.44	1.35
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	71.7%	87.5%
Passes, last 5	328	621
Fouls, last 5	12.6	11.2
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	34
Home side won	11
Drawn	8
Away side won	15
Goals, home side	51
Goals, away side	48

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 30.7% · Draw 28.3% · Away 41.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Everton v Ipswich

premier-league · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	6	7
Position last season	13	2
Points this season	6	6
Goal difference this season	+2	-3
Elo rating going in	1,715	1,634
Matches on record, all seasons	612	678
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	9
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	3
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	4	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	1.8
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	2.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.8	11.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	5.2
Shots per possession	0.312	0.263
On-target shots per possession	0.113	0.101
Inside-box shots per possession	0.221	0.168
Share of shots from inside the box	70.6%	65.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.10	2.09
Possession, last 5	43.4%	45.8%
Corners, last 5	5.6	3.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.261	0.280
On-target allowed per possession	0.070	0.115
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.175	0.180
Opponents' inside-box share	66.9%	65.3%
Save rate	61.1%	65.8%
Saves, last 5	2.4	4.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.78	2.06
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.7%	81.3%
Passes, last 5	382	400
Fouls, last 5	10.4	10.8
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	1
Drawn	1
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	4
Goals, away side	2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 52.8% · Draw 25.0% · Away 22.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Hibernian v Aberdeen

scottish-prem · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	9	7
Position last season	5	9
Points this season	6	7
Goal difference this season	-3	-1
Elo rating going in	1,573	1,484
Matches on record, all seasons	489	603
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	0	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	5
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	2
Losses in a row	3	0
Days since last match	4	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.8	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	2.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.4	9.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.6	2.6
Shots per possession	0.320	0.216
On-target shots per possession	0.092	0.058
Inside-box shots per possession	0.222	0.137
Share of shots from inside the box	68.6%	64.7%
Expected goals, last 5	2.08	0.56
Possession, last 5	48.4%	44.4%
Corners, last 5	7.4	4.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.252	0.283
On-target allowed per possession	0.095	0.102
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.162	0.178
Opponents' inside-box share	64.8%	62.8%
Save rate	70.8%	71.2%
Saves, last 5	4.0	5.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.42	2.03
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	77.0%	73.0%
Passes, last 5	440	371
Fouls, last 5	12.6	13.0
Cards, last 5	1.2	3.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	48
Home side won	15
Drawn	11
Away side won	22
Goals, home side	52
Goals, away side	58

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 54.8% · Draw 24.0% · Away 21.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Kocaelispor v Gaziantep FK

super-lig · 14:00 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	5	7
Position last season	11	12
Points this season	9	8
Goal difference this season	+1	+2
Elo rating going in	1,599	1,564
Matches on record, all seasons	39	261
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	8
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	0.7	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	0.9	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	5	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	2
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	6	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.0	12.8
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	4.2
Shots per possession	0.197	0.273
On-target shots per possession	0.049	0.080
Inside-box shots per possession	0.120	0.159
Share of shots from inside the box	61.6%	58.3%
Expected goals, last 5	0.80	1.20
Possession, last 5	46.4%	53.2%
Corners, last 5	3.2	3.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.284	0.293
On-target allowed per possession	0.071	0.090
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.146	0.193
Opponents' inside-box share	47.8%	63.2%
Save rate	73.5%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	3.2	1.5
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.44	1.48
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.2%	81.8%
Passes, last 5	414	437
Fouls, last 5	11.6	12.8
Cards, last 5	1.4	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	1
Drawn	0
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	3
Goals, away side	2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 41.9% · Draw 31.2% · Away 27.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Leyton Orient v Stevenage

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	10	4
Position last season	20	6
Points this season	7	9
Goal difference this season	+3	+4
Elo rating going in	1,360	1,430
Matches on record, all seasons	334	286
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	8
Goals scored, last 5	2.2	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	3
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	0	4
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	7	9
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.2	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	2.4	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.2	10.5
Shots on target, last 5	3.2	4.0
Shots per possession	0.197	0.239
On-target shots per possession	0.051	0.091
Inside-box shots per possession	0.128	0.167
Share of shots from inside the box	63.9%	69.2%
Expected goals, last 5	0.83	0.73
Possession, last 5	47.0%	41.2%
Corners, last 5	3.8	5.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.320	0.205
On-target allowed per possession	0.122	0.066
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.216	0.124
Opponents' inside-box share	67.3%	62.1%
Save rate	72.2%	62.6%
Saves, last 5	3.8	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.68	0.95
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	63.5%	65.0%
Passes, last 5	342	285
Fouls, last 5	12.2	13.8
Cards, last 5	2.2	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	12
Home side won	7
Drawn	2
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	11
Goals, away side	8

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 39.1% · Draw 29.4% · Away 31.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Lincoln v Swansea

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	9	3
Position last season	1	11
Points this season	11	14
Goal difference this season	+0	+6
Elo rating going in	1,580	1,556
Matches on record, all seasons	321	646
Recent form
Points, last 5	11	10
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	0.2	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	0.9	0.8
Clean sheets, last 10	6	4
Failed to score, last 10	1	2
Wins in a row	2	1
Unbeaten run	5	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	4	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.2	13.0
Shots on target, last 5	3.2	5.8
Shots per possession	0.351	0.221
On-target shots per possession	0.106	0.095
Inside-box shots per possession	0.256	0.128
Share of shots from inside the box	71.3%	58.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.05	3.33
Possession, last 5	37.8%	54.8%
Corners, last 5	3.2	4.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.247	0.290
On-target allowed per possession	0.068	0.080
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.151	0.212
Opponents' inside-box share	61.3%	74.2%
Save rate	71.1%	73.9%
Saves, last 5	3.8	1.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.54	0.59
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	72.0%	83.0%
Passes, last 5	290	546
Fouls, last 5	14.2	8.5
Cards, last 5	2.4	1.6

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 32.5% · Draw 27.7% · Away 39.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Luton v Bradford

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	8	2
Position last season	7	4
Points this season	8	12
Goal difference this season	-1	+2
Elo rating going in	1,468	1,417
Matches on record, all seasons	371	335
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	9
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	2.1	0.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.8	0.8
Clean sheets, last 10	2	4
Failed to score, last 10	0	3
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	0	2
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	9	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	2.4	0.8
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.4	0.8
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.0	7.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	3.5
Shots per possession	0.261	0.178
On-target shots per possession	0.090	0.057
Inside-box shots per possession	0.186	0.119
Share of shots from inside the box	71.8%	68.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.61	0.74
Possession, last 5	55.6%	48.5%
Corners, last 5	5.6	5.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.307	0.222
On-target allowed per possession	0.102	0.044
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.193	0.131
Opponents' inside-box share	62.0%	59.7%
Save rate	62.8%	64.9%
Saves, last 5	1.6	1.5
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.06	1.03
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.0%	66.0%
Passes, last 5	469	333
Fouls, last 5	10.8	14.8
Cards, last 5	2.4	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	3
Drawn	0
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	8
Goals, away side	3

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 44.7% · Draw 25.9% · Away 29.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Newcastle v Hull City

premier-league · 14:00 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	12	3
Position last season	12	6
Points this season	5	8
Goal difference this season	-1	+3
Elo rating going in	1,727	1,591
Matches on record, all seasons	620	676
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	11
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	0.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	0.7
Clean sheets, last 10	1	6
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	8
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	5	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	1.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	1.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.2	9.4
Shots on target, last 5	3.0	3.4
Shots per possession	0.244	0.290
On-target shots per possession	0.086	0.114
Inside-box shots per possession	0.154	0.184
Share of shots from inside the box	62.0%	63.1%
Expected goals, last 5	0.83	0.90
Possession, last 5	48.4%	29.8%
Corners, last 5	4.8	2.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.329	0.227
On-target allowed per possession	0.111	0.062
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.196	0.133
Opponents' inside-box share	60.6%	60.8%
Save rate	70.2%	74.4%
Saves, last 5	4.0	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.69	1.29
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	83.0%	69.7%
Passes, last 5	412	260
Fouls, last 5	12.6	9.2
Cards, last 5	2.6	2.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	2
Drawn	1
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	11
Goals, away side	6

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 59.8% · Draw 21.6% · Away 18.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Oxford United v Cambridge United

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	5	4
Position last season	23	—
Points this season	10	11
Goal difference this season	+6	+2
Elo rating going in	1,470	1,331
Matches on record, all seasons	462	190
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	8
Goals scored, last 5	2.4	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.8	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	3	0
Failed to score, last 10	3	0
Wins in a row	2	1
Unbeaten run	2	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.2	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.8	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.7	10.8
Shots on target, last 5	5.3	4.5
Shots per possession	0.308	0.254
On-target shots per possession	0.103	0.106
Inside-box shots per possession	0.177	0.190
Share of shots from inside the box	58.6%	73.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.24	0.85
Possession, last 5	52.3%	49.8%
Corners, last 5	4.3	5.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.239	0.212
On-target allowed per possession	0.069	0.077
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.163	0.119
Opponents' inside-box share	67.1%	56.6%
Save rate	70.0%	62.4%
Saves, last 5	2.3	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.00	0.87
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	70.0%	71.5%
Passes, last 5	365	376
Fouls, last 5	17.3	11.2
Cards, last 5	1.2	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	3
Drawn	1
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	8
Goals, away side	7

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 44.5% · Draw 27.0% · Away 28.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Peterborough v Doncaster

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 0–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	21	24
Position last season	18	14
Points this season	5	3
Goal difference this season	-6	-3
Elo rating going in	1,328	1,344
Matches on record, all seasons	691	502
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	3
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	0.7	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	2	1
Failed to score, last 10	4	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	2
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	1.8
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.6	1.4
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.8	15.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.2	4.8
Shots per possession	0.261	0.289
On-target shots per possession	0.080	0.101
Inside-box shots per possession	0.164	0.201
Share of shots from inside the box	64.1%	67.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.60	1.01
Possession, last 5	61.2%	52.5%
Corners, last 5	6.0	6.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.372	0.274
On-target allowed per possession	0.146	0.097
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.293	0.191
Opponents' inside-box share	78.0%	66.3%
Save rate	69.0%	72.1%
Saves, last 5	3.2	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.05	0.45
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	83.5%	63.0%
Passes, last 5	514	365
Fouls, last 5	8.5	12.0
Cards, last 5	0.8	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	16
Home side won	4
Drawn	6
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	21
Goals, away side	22

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 37.4% · Draw 26.3% · Away 36.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Portsmouth v Blackburn

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	18	15
Position last season	18	22
Points this season	7	8
Goal difference this season	-1	+0
Elo rating going in	1,489	1,479
Matches on record, all seasons	505	727
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	3	1
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	2	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.8	15.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	4.0
Shots per possession	0.239	0.249
On-target shots per possession	0.074	0.093
Inside-box shots per possession	0.138	0.162
Share of shots from inside the box	52.8%	66.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.26	1.02
Possession, last 5	51.0%	57.5%
Corners, last 5	5.8	6.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.260	0.287
On-target allowed per possession	0.086	0.082
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.188	0.190
Opponents' inside-box share	71.8%	66.2%
Save rate	68.9%	63.7%
Saves, last 5	3.2	1.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.45	1.30
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	74.5%	86.0%
Passes, last 5	356	507
Fouls, last 5	11.0	9.8
Cards, last 5	0.4	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	2
Drawn	1
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	5
Goals, away side	10

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 44.2% · Draw 27.5% · Away 28.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

QPR v Preston

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	23
Position last season	15	14
Points this season	12	3
Goal difference this season	+3	-7
Elo rating going in	1,496	1,437
Matches on record, all seasons	676	702
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	3
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	2.0
Clean sheets, last 10	2	0
Failed to score, last 10	4	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	2
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.5	12.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	3.2
Shots per possession	0.288	0.304
On-target shots per possession	0.115	0.095
Inside-box shots per possession	0.183	0.203
Share of shots from inside the box	64.6%	67.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.30	0.91
Possession, last 5	51.5%	41.8%
Corners, last 5	7.5	6.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.253	0.264
On-target allowed per possession	0.085	0.077
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.144	0.168
Opponents' inside-box share	61.4%	63.2%
Save rate	67.8%	62.2%
Saves, last 5	2.5	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.02	0.87
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	85.0%	72.0%
Passes, last 5	480	304
Fouls, last 5	8.2	12.5
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	22
Home side won	8
Drawn	5
Away side won	9
Goals, home side	23
Goals, away side	26

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 54.6% · Draw 24.2% · Away 21.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Reading v Notts County

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	14	13
Position last season	12	—
Points this season	7	7
Goal difference this season	+5	+0
Elo rating going in	1,408	1,396
Matches on record, all seasons	690	190
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	6
Goals scored, last 5	2.4	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	2	0
Failed to score, last 10	3	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	1
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.5	11.0
Shots on target, last 5	5.0	4.0
Shots per possession	0.282	0.227
On-target shots per possession	0.078	0.083
Inside-box shots per possession	0.198	0.136
Share of shots from inside the box	71.8%	53.3%
Expected goals, last 5	0.90	1.54
Possession, last 5	51.5%	47.0%
Corners, last 5	5.2	5.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.218	0.183
On-target allowed per possession	0.092	0.066
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.132	0.133
Opponents' inside-box share	64.3%	68.2%
Save rate	66.7%	61.9%
Saves, last 5	2.2	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.34	1.02
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.0%	75.5%
Passes, last 5	400	363
Fouls, last 5	11.2	14.5
Cards, last 5	1.0	2.0

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 52.5% · Draw 25.7% · Away 21.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

ST Johnstone v Falkirk

scottish-prem · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	7	10
Position last season	—	6
Points this season	7	5
Goal difference this season	-1	-3
Elo rating going in	1,417	1,526
Matches on record, all seasons	567	44
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	5
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	0.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	1.9
Clean sheets, last 10	0	2
Failed to score, last 10	4	3
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	2
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	10	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.6	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.6	2.6
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.2	10.4
Shots on target, last 5	3.2	3.0
Shots per possession	0.230	0.218
On-target shots per possession	0.063	0.058
Inside-box shots per possession	0.147	0.143
Share of shots from inside the box	65.0%	65.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.23	0.48
Possession, last 5	50.2%	41.8%
Corners, last 5	3.0	3.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.278	0.285
On-target allowed per possession	0.095	0.100
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.161	0.194
Opponents' inside-box share	60.4%	67.7%
Save rate	72.5%	67.2%
Saves, last 5	4.4	4.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.53	1.88
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	82.5%	80.0%
Passes, last 5	462	377
Fouls, last 5	11.8	14.2
Cards, last 5	1.2	2.8

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 46.7% · Draw 26.9% · Away 26.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

ST Mirren v Dundee Utd

scottish-prem · 14:00 UK

Finished 0–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	8
Position last season	11	7
Points this season	10	5
Goal difference this season	+2	-5
Elo rating going in	1,492	1,496
Matches on record, all seasons	491	422
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	0.7
Goals conceded, last 10	0.8	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	5	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	6
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	10	14
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.0	17.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	4.6
Shots per possession	0.318	0.264
On-target shots per possession	0.111	0.074
Inside-box shots per possession	0.200	0.179
Share of shots from inside the box	63.9%	64.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.81	1.72
Possession, last 5	48.0%	55.4%
Corners, last 5	4.2	6.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.243	0.332
On-target allowed per possession	0.071	0.125
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.180	0.222
Opponents' inside-box share	72.1%	67.2%
Save rate	71.9%	68.8%
Saves, last 5	3.8	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.73	1.59
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.5%	83.0%
Passes, last 5	443	433
Fouls, last 5	11.4	11.2
Cards, last 5	2.2	2.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	33
Home side won	9
Drawn	12
Away side won	12
Goals, home side	40
Goals, away side	43

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 40.1% · Draw 26.1% · Away 33.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Sheffield Wednesday v Stockport County

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	8
Position last season	24	3
Points this season	13	9
Goal difference this season	+7	+6
Elo rating going in	1,372	1,475
Matches on record, all seasons	706	103
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	6
Goals scored, last 5	2.2	2.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	2.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	1	3
Failed to score, last 10	3	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	4	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.0	2.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.0	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.2	18.0
Shots on target, last 5	6.5	6.2
Shots per possession	0.242	0.252
On-target shots per possession	0.087	0.100
Inside-box shots per possession	0.177	0.194
Share of shots from inside the box	70.9%	76.2%
Expected goals, last 5	2.71	2.12
Possession, last 5	58.0%	60.6%
Corners, last 5	7.0	8.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.302	0.229
On-target allowed per possession	0.087	0.101
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.213	0.156
Opponents' inside-box share	70.0%	68.8%
Save rate	65.4%	65.6%
Saves, last 5	2.2	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.04	1.31
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.0%	89.5%
Passes, last 5	440	600
Fouls, last 5	9.5	8.8
Cards, last 5	1.4	1.2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 34.0% · Draw 24.4% · Away 41.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Wigan v Wycombe

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	23	18
Position last season	16	11
Points this season	4	6
Goal difference this season	-6	-4
Elo rating going in	1,347	1,409
Matches on record, all seasons	720	416
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	5
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	2.6
Goals scored, last 10	0.8	1.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	2.4
Clean sheets, last 10	3	0
Failed to score, last 10	7	1
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	1	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	0.4	2.2
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	3.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.2	11.0
Shots on target, last 5	3.2	6.0
Shots per possession	0.255	0.254
On-target shots per possession	0.064	0.118
Inside-box shots per possession	0.172	0.190
Share of shots from inside the box	68.7%	75.4%
Expected goals, last 5	2.08	1.42
Possession, last 5	51.6%	50.0%
Corners, last 5	6.2	6.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.252	0.289
On-target allowed per possession	0.071	0.103
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.169	0.160
Opponents' inside-box share	64.6%	53.5%
Save rate	69.4%	56.6%
Saves, last 5	2.6	2.5
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.82	1.05
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	78.0%	78.0%
Passes, last 5	413	383
Fouls, last 5	10.2	9.8
Cards, last 5	2.4	0.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	2
Drawn	2
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	5
Goals, away side	7

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 38.6% · Draw 27.2% · Away 34.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Wrexham v Southampton

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	16	2
Position last season	7	4
Points this season	7	14
Goal difference this season	-4	+10
Elo rating going in	1,550	1,628
Matches on record, all seasons	99	606
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	11
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	2.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	2.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	3	1
Failed to score, last 10	2	1
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	0	6
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	3.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.0	15.8
Shots on target, last 5	2.8	5.0
Shots per possession	0.279	0.284
On-target shots per possession	0.086	0.079
Inside-box shots per possession	0.191	0.200
Share of shots from inside the box	70.4%	69.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.42	3.21
Possession, last 5	49.8%	54.5%
Corners, last 5	3.8	6.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.266	0.379
On-target allowed per possession	0.098	0.093
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.166	0.272
Opponents' inside-box share	61.4%	69.9%
Save rate	60.4%	69.6%
Saves, last 5	2.2	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.85	1.09
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	78.0%	88.0%
Passes, last 5	477	478
Fouls, last 5	10.2	8.0
Cards, last 5	0.6	0.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	0
Drawn	0
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	2
Goals, away side	7

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 32.2% · Draw 26.6% · Away 41.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Çorum FK v Alanyaspor

super-lig · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	6	5
Position last season	—	10
Points this season	7	8
Goal difference this season	+2	+1
Elo rating going in	1,639	1,599
Matches on record, all seasons	5	363
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	8
Goals scored, last 5	2.4	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	—	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	—	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	1	3
Failed to score, last 10	1	2
Wins in a row	2	0
Unbeaten run	2	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	3.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	3.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.2	11.2
Shots on target, last 5	5.0	2.6
Shots per possession	0.256	0.246
On-target shots per possession	0.104	0.078
Inside-box shots per possession	0.126	0.158
Share of shots from inside the box	48.1%	63.6%
Expected goals, last 5	0.91	1.23
Possession, last 5	51.8%	42.0%
Corners, last 5	4.8	5.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.336	0.236
On-target allowed per possession	0.109	0.088
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.214	0.140
Opponents' inside-box share	64.6%	58.8%
Save rate	66.7%	71.2%
Saves, last 5	3.8	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.75	1.25
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	82.2%	77.4%
Passes, last 5	476	327
Fouls, last 5	12.4	16.0
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 44.9% · Draw 28.4% · Away 26.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Athletic Club v Alaves

la-liga · 14:15 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	8	4
Position last season	12	14
Points this season	7	10
Goal difference this season	+1	+5
Elo rating going in	1,622	1,589
Matches on record, all seasons	613	394
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	0.9
Clean sheets, last 10	2	4
Failed to score, last 10	3	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	3	0
Losses in a row	0	2
Days since last match	7	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.2	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.2	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.8	13.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	4.4
Shots per possession	0.287	0.327
On-target shots per possession	0.092	0.117
Inside-box shots per possession	0.205	0.213
Share of shots from inside the box	70.6%	65.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.37	1.31
Possession, last 5	48.8%	43.0%
Corners, last 5	6.2	4.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.172	0.180
On-target allowed per possession	0.078	0.062
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.110	0.122
Opponents' inside-box share	58.9%	66.1%
Save rate	66.7%	72.1%
Saves, last 5	3.4	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.62	0.84
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.3%	78.0%
Passes, last 5	451	319
Fouls, last 5	10.6	12.6
Cards, last 5	2.2	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	18
Home side won	7
Drawn	6
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	18
Goals, away side	12

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 58.5% · Draw 23.8% · Away 17.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

FC Andorra v Sporting Gijon

laliga-2 · 14:15 UK

Finished 1–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	18	14
Position last season	13	9
Points this season	3	7
Goal difference this season	-2	-1
Elo rating going in	1,412	1,453
Matches on record, all seasons	131	539
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	0.4
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	0.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	0	3
Failed to score, last 10	5	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	4	2
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.2	0.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.6	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	21.2	11.0
Shots on target, last 5	6.4	3.8
Shots per possession	0.275	0.215
On-target shots per possession	0.086	0.091
Inside-box shots per possession	0.164	0.151
Share of shots from inside the box	59.2%	66.5%
Expected goals, last 5	—	—
Possession, last 5	68.8%	53.0%
Corners, last 5	4.6	2.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.263	0.256
On-target allowed per possession	0.111	0.071
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.165	0.152
Opponents' inside-box share	60.7%	57.4%
Save rate	61.9%	75.7%
Saves, last 5	1.6	1.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	—	—
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	86.7%	80.7%
Passes, last 5	578	467
Fouls, last 5	16.6	10.2
Cards, last 5	2.4	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	2
Drawn	2
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	6
Goals, away side	10

ADO Den Haag v Cambuur

eredivisie · 14:30 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	17	15
Position last season	—	—
Points this season	1	4
Goal difference this season	-10	-9
Elo rating going in	1,407	1,362
Matches on record, all seasons	390	178
Recent form
Points, last 5	1	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	2.8	2.8
Goals scored, last 10	0.8	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	2.8	2.4
Clean sheets, last 10	0	2
Failed to score, last 10	4	2
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	2
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.8
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.0	12.8
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	4.8
Shots per possession	0.260	0.309
On-target shots per possession	0.073	0.103
Inside-box shots per possession	0.154	0.210
Share of shots from inside the box	56.9%	68.9%
Expected goals, last 5	0.75	1.36
Possession, last 5	47.2%	48.0%
Corners, last 5	3.0	3.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.268	0.270
On-target allowed per possession	0.134	0.111
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.180	0.180
Opponents' inside-box share	66.7%	66.0%
Save rate	61.4%	59.8%
Saves, last 5	6.8	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.20	1.89
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.3%	83.7%
Passes, last 5	417	390
Fouls, last 5	12.2	13.0
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	3
Drawn	2
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	12
Goals, away side	8

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 51.0% · Draw 23.6% · Away 25.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

GIL Vicente v Maritimo

primeira-liga · 14:30 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	9	10
Position last season	6	—
Points this season	7	7
Goal difference this season	+0	-4
Elo rating going in	1,577	1,484
Matches on record, all seasons	367	434
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	4
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	0.7	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	4	2
Failed to score, last 10	5	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	2	3
Days since last match	6	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	1.2
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	2.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.8	9.4
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	3.0
Shots per possession	0.242	0.270
On-target shots per possession	0.069	0.079
Inside-box shots per possession	0.150	0.172
Share of shots from inside the box	61.7%	64.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.17	1.19
Possession, last 5	52.2%	47.2%
Corners, last 5	3.6	3.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.228	0.260
On-target allowed per possession	0.057	0.097
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.139	0.176
Opponents' inside-box share	55.9%	67.5%
Save rate	64.7%	63.1%
Saves, last 5	1.4	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.43	1.36
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	86.3%	79.0%
Passes, last 5	459	399
Fouls, last 5	14.6	15.6
Cards, last 5	1.8	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	16
Home side won	7
Drawn	4
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	23
Goals, away side	18

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 49.7% · Draw 27.6% · Away 22.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Nacional v Famalicao

primeira-liga · 14:30 UK

Finished 0–4. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	13	12
Position last season	14	5
Points this season	4	4
Goal difference this season	-4	-2
Elo rating going in	1,469	1,633
Matches on record, all seasons	364	244
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	3
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	0.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	0.9
Clean sheets, last 10	3	4
Failed to score, last 10	3	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	3
Losses in a row	4	0
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.6	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.6	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.6	9.8
Shots on target, last 5	2.6	2.8
Shots per possession	0.236	0.185
On-target shots per possession	0.069	0.062
Inside-box shots per possession	0.130	0.104
Share of shots from inside the box	51.9%	55.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.11	0.62
Possession, last 5	50.4%	56.4%
Corners, last 5	3.2	5.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.331	0.225
On-target allowed per possession	0.098	0.059
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.184	0.154
Opponents' inside-box share	56.0%	67.2%
Save rate	69.1%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	3.8	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.02	1.08
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	82.0%	87.3%
Passes, last 5	415	484
Fouls, last 5	9.4	12.0
Cards, last 5	1.2	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	2
Drawn	1
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	4
Goals, away side	7

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 25.1% · Draw 29.1% · Away 45.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Paris FC v Strasbourg

ligue-1 · 15:15 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	6
Position last season	11	8
Points this season	8	7
Goal difference this season	+4	+1
Elo rating going in	1,613	1,638
Matches on record, all seasons	38	323
Recent form
Points, last 5	11	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	2.8
Goals conceded, last 5	0.6	2.4
Goals scored, last 10	2.0	2.1
Goals conceded, last 10	0.8	2.1
Clean sheets, last 10	4	0
Failed to score, last 10	3	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	5	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.8	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.4	2.2
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.8	13.6
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	6.0
Shots per possession	0.285	0.240
On-target shots per possession	0.112	0.099
Inside-box shots per possession	0.201	0.149
Share of shots from inside the box	68.4%	60.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.91	1.12
Possession, last 5	47.2%	44.8%
Corners, last 5	2.6	2.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.214	0.379
On-target allowed per possession	0.065	0.132
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.144	0.256
Opponents' inside-box share	66.3%	66.4%
Save rate	70.3%	68.3%
Saves, last 5	2.0	4.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.52	1.97
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	88.0%	84.7%
Passes, last 5	498	424
Fouls, last 5	11.2	10.8
Cards, last 5	1.4	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	0
Drawn	1
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	2
Goals, away side	3

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 48.3% · Draw 26.0% · Away 25.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

AS Roma v Inter

serie-a · 16:00 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	2
Position last season	3	1
Points this season	12	12
Goal difference this season	+11	+7
Elo rating going in	1,774	1,868
Matches on record, all seasons	612	612
Recent form
Points, last 5	15	13
Goals scored, last 5	2.8	3.2
Goals conceded, last 5	0.2	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	2.6	2.7
Goals conceded, last 10	0.4	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	7	4
Failed to score, last 10	0	0
Wins in a row	9	4
Unbeaten run	11	14
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	5	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	3.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	2.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	20.8	22.0
Shots on target, last 5	7.6	7.4
Shots per possession	0.300	0.294
On-target shots per possession	0.120	0.100
Inside-box shots per possession	0.225	0.214
Share of shots from inside the box	74.4%	74.1%
Expected goals, last 5	2.85	2.46
Possession, last 5	61.0%	64.0%
Corners, last 5	6.2	6.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.186	0.283
On-target allowed per possession	0.062	0.089
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.101	0.181
Opponents' inside-box share	56.0%	64.3%
Save rate	74.8%	68.0%
Saves, last 5	2.6	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.66	0.96
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	86.8%	90.2%
Passes, last 5	570	610
Fouls, last 5	12.4	8.0
Cards, last 5	1.2	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	9
Drawn	10
Away side won	13
Goals, home side	44
Goals, away side	50

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 36.0% · Draw 27.7% · Away 36.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Castellón v Tenerife

laliga-2 · 16:30 UK

Finished 5–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	3
Position last season	6	—
Points this season	13	10
Goal difference this season	+5	+4
Elo rating going in	1,535	1,412
Matches on record, all seasons	133	391
Recent form
Points, last 5	13	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	0.4	0.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	0.8
Goals conceded, last 10	0.8	0.8
Clean sheets, last 10	4	3
Failed to score, last 10	1	5
Wins in a row	3	1
Unbeaten run	5	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.6	9.8
Shots on target, last 5	5.4	3.0
Shots per possession	0.267	0.207
On-target shots per possession	0.094	0.057
Inside-box shots per possession	0.193	0.115
Share of shots from inside the box	71.5%	55.7%
Expected goals, last 5	—	—
Possession, last 5	62.0%	42.0%
Corners, last 5	6.8	3.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.202	0.174
On-target allowed per possession	0.069	0.045
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.140	0.103
Opponents' inside-box share	70.1%	54.1%
Save rate	66.0%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	2.0	1.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	—	—
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.3%	75.3%
Passes, last 5	566	355
Fouls, last 5	11.0	13.8
Cards, last 5	2.4	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	1
Drawn	1
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	3
Goals, away side	5

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 61.3% · Draw 22.4% · Away 16.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Celta Vigo v Racing Santander

la-liga · 16:30 UK

Finished 5–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	14	10
Position last season	6	1
Points this season	4	7
Goal difference this season	-3	-5
Elo rating going in	1,611	1,561
Matches on record, all seasons	538	294
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	6
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	2.8
Goals scored, last 10	0.8	2.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	2.0
Clean sheets, last 10	4	0
Failed to score, last 10	3	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	3	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	6	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.6	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	2.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.4	8.8
Shots on target, last 5	2.8	4.0
Shots per possession	0.164	0.273
On-target shots per possession	0.055	0.111
Inside-box shots per possession	0.090	0.179
Share of shots from inside the box	50.7%	68.8%
Expected goals, last 5	0.57	1.25
Possession, last 5	54.2%	47.2%
Corners, last 5	3.6	4.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.304	0.291
On-target allowed per possession	0.091	0.107
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.181	0.191
Opponents' inside-box share	57.4%	66.0%
Save rate	72.9%	64.5%
Saves, last 5	2.8	4.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.99	1.14
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	86.3%	80.5%
Passes, last 5	546	400
Fouls, last 5	9.0	15.0
Cards, last 5	1.6	2.4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 53.3% · Draw 23.4% · Away 23.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Eldense v Eibar

laliga-2 · 16:30 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	16	2
Position last season	—	8
Points this season	5	12
Goal difference this season	-3	+7
Elo rating going in	1,401	1,529
Matches on record, all seasons	89	487
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	12
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	0.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.8	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	3	6
Failed to score, last 10	4	0
Wins in a row	1	4
Unbeaten run	2	4
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	6	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	1.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	0.8
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.2	11.0
Shots on target, last 5	2.8	4.8
Shots per possession	0.260	0.265
On-target shots per possession	0.084	0.095
Inside-box shots per possession	0.157	0.169
Share of shots from inside the box	57.4%	62.9%
Expected goals, last 5	—	—
Possession, last 5	46.2%	39.8%
Corners, last 5	5.8	3.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.219	0.295
On-target allowed per possession	0.091	0.092
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.165	0.141
Opponents' inside-box share	77.5%	49.6%
Save rate	69.0%	75.9%
Saves, last 5	3.2	4.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	—	—
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	83.0%	78.3%
Passes, last 5	362	362
Fouls, last 5	10.6	9.8
Cards, last 5	1.4	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	1
Drawn	0
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	4
Goals, away side	10

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 30.6% · Draw 31.0% · Away 38.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Nottingham Forest v Coventry

premier-league · 16:30 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	11	20
Position last season	16	1
Points this season	5	0
Goal difference this season	+0	-10
Elo rating going in	1,712	1,613
Matches on record, all seasons	665	641
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	3
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	2.0	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	6
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	3	0
Losses in a row	0	4
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	2.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.6	11.8
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	4.0
Shots per possession	0.293	0.261
On-target shots per possession	0.101	0.080
Inside-box shots per possession	0.206	0.178
Share of shots from inside the box	71.8%	65.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.56	0.98
Possession, last 5	43.6%	42.8%
Corners, last 5	3.4	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.258	0.253
On-target allowed per possession	0.077	0.070
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.153	0.169
Opponents' inside-box share	60.8%	63.6%
Save rate	73.7%	56.8%
Saves, last 5	2.4	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.02	1.41
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	75.0%	84.3%
Passes, last 5	348	375
Fouls, last 5	14.8	12.0
Cards, last 5	2.4	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	4
Drawn	0
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	9
Goals, away side	5

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 58.5% · Draw 24.1% · Away 17.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

VfB Stuttgart v Borussia Dortmund

bundesliga · 16:30 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	13	2
Position last season	4	2
Points this season	3	9
Goal difference this season	-2	+6
Elo rating going in	1,657	1,745
Matches on record, all seasons	483	547
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	15
Goals scored, last 5	2.2	2.6
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	2.1	2.0
Goals conceded, last 10	2.1	0.8
Clean sheets, last 10	1	5
Failed to score, last 10	1	2
Wins in a row	0	5
Unbeaten run	0	5
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	3.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.4	14.8
Shots on target, last 5	6.6	7.0
Shots per possession	0.306	0.241
On-target shots per possession	0.124	0.094
Inside-box shots per possession	0.197	0.179
Share of shots from inside the box	63.5%	75.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.74	2.03
Possession, last 5	49.6%	51.4%
Corners, last 5	6.6	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.325	0.219
On-target allowed per possession	0.134	0.072
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.221	0.127
Opponents' inside-box share	68.3%	57.0%
Save rate	64.7%	74.0%
Saves, last 5	4.6	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.34	0.77
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	78.7%	86.7%
Passes, last 5	431	490
Fouls, last 5	11.0	10.2
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	28
Home side won	6
Drawn	7
Away side won	15
Goals, home side	43
Goals, away side	67

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 39.3% · Draw 25.7% · Away 35.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Kilmarnock v Heart Of Midlothian

scottish-prem · 16:45 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	12	3
Position last season	10	2
Points this season	4	12
Goal difference this season	-9	+6
Elo rating going in	1,474	1,671
Matches on record, all seasons	567	526
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	12
Goals scored, last 5	0.4	2.4
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.8	2.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	4	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	0
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	4	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	2.2	1.4
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	1.8
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.6	15.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.6	6.0
Shots per possession	0.267	0.294
On-target shots per possession	0.119	0.104
Inside-box shots per possession	0.186	0.194
Share of shots from inside the box	70.3%	66.9%
Expected goals, last 5	0.95	1.92
Possession, last 5	43.0%	49.4%
Corners, last 5	5.8	8.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.280	0.199
On-target allowed per possession	0.091	0.050
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.205	0.139
Opponents' inside-box share	71.9%	68.6%
Save rate	71.8%	62.3%
Saves, last 5	4.8	1.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	4.51	0.85
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.5%	79.0%
Passes, last 5	395	453
Fouls, last 5	11.6	11.0
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	46
Home side won	21
Drawn	12
Away side won	13
Goals, home side	59
Goals, away side	47

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 19.4% · Draw 22.1% · Away 58.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Sparta Rotterdam v Heerenveen

eredivisie · 16:45 UK

Finished 0–4. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	12	11
Position last season	10	8
Points this season	5	6
Goal difference this season	-3	-2
Elo rating going in	1,525	1,558
Matches on record, all seasons	310	560
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	3
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	2.4	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	2.6	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	0	4
Failed to score, last 10	2	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	6	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	3.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.2	15.4
Shots on target, last 5	6.0	5.6
Shots per possession	0.314	0.253
On-target shots per possession	0.097	0.092
Inside-box shots per possession	0.221	0.158
Share of shots from inside the box	68.9%	63.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.61	1.15
Possession, last 5	46.4%	55.8%
Corners, last 5	6.8	5.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.322	0.363
On-target allowed per possession	0.106	0.102
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.218	0.220
Opponents' inside-box share	66.9%	59.2%
Save rate	59.3%	72.7%
Saves, last 5	2.6	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.50	1.43
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	82.7%	87.7%
Passes, last 5	398	457
Fouls, last 5	9.8	8.2
Cards, last 5	0.6	0.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	17
Home side won	6
Drawn	4
Away side won	7
Goals, home side	22
Goals, away side	24

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 38.1% · Draw 25.4% · Away 36.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Alverca v Rio Ave

primeira-liga · 17:00 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	10	16
Position last season	11	13
Points this season	5	4
Goal difference this season	-3	-9
Elo rating going in	1,571	1,532
Matches on record, all seasons	40	502
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	2.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	0.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	2.1
Clean sheets, last 10	0	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	6
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.6
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	7.6	7.6
Shots on target, last 5	3.0	2.6
Shots per possession	0.200	0.202
On-target shots per possession	0.071	0.064
Inside-box shots per possession	0.117	0.119
Share of shots from inside the box	57.3%	57.9%
Expected goals, last 5	0.73	0.58
Possession, last 5	40.4%	42.4%
Corners, last 5	2.8	3.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.205	0.279
On-target allowed per possession	0.063	0.089
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.124	0.181
Opponents' inside-box share	58.2%	64.4%
Save rate	65.5%	61.0%
Saves, last 5	3.0	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.98	1.67
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	79.0%	81.7%
Passes, last 5	297	361
Fouls, last 5	12.0	9.4
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	1
Drawn	1
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	3
Goals, away side	2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 48.6% · Draw 27.6% · Away 23.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Başakşehir v Gençlerbirliği S.K.

super-lig · 17:00 UK

Finished 4–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	13	11
Position last season	5	14
Points this season	4	7
Goal difference this season	-5	-4
Elo rating going in	1,677	1,529
Matches on record, all seasons	505	351
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	3	3
Failed to score, last 10	1	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	2	2
Days since last match	6	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.0	13.0
Shots on target, last 5	3.0	4.2
Shots per possession	0.267	0.277
On-target shots per possession	0.077	0.097
Inside-box shots per possession	0.177	0.164
Share of shots from inside the box	64.5%	60.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.21	1.16
Possession, last 5	53.8%	43.8%
Corners, last 5	4.6	4.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.271	0.250
On-target allowed per possession	0.095	0.092
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.156	0.193
Opponents' inside-box share	56.2%	79.0%
Save rate	68.7%	70.5%
Saves, last 5	3.4	5.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.94	1.86
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	85.8%	77.5%
Passes, last 5	477	350
Fouls, last 5	13.0	12.8
Cards, last 5	2.8	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	18
Home side won	9
Drawn	4
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	21
Goals, away side	16

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 62.1% · Draw 21.3% · Away 16.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Trabzonspor v Galatasaray

super-lig · 17:00 UK

Finished 4–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	6	1
Position last season	3	1
Points this season	7	13
Goal difference this season	+4	+7
Elo rating going in	1,719	1,896
Matches on record, all seasons	539	539
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	13
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	2.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	2.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	1	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	1
Wins in a row	0	4
Unbeaten run	0	5
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.6	24.8
Shots on target, last 5	7.0	8.6
Shots per possession	0.258	0.330
On-target shots per possession	0.102	0.114
Inside-box shots per possession	0.171	0.228
Share of shots from inside the box	67.0%	70.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.12	2.71
Possession, last 5	58.2%	59.2%
Corners, last 5	6.6	7.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.336	0.239
On-target allowed per possession	0.114	0.079
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.199	0.152
Opponents' inside-box share	59.3%	62.8%
Save rate	69.7%	62.8%
Saves, last 5	4.0	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.73	0.70
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	87.5%	87.8%
Passes, last 5	491	487
Fouls, last 5	10.6	11.2
Cards, last 5	2.4	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	9
Drawn	8
Away side won	15
Goals, home side	38
Goals, away side	50

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 33.0% · Draw 24.8% · Away 42.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Ajax v Excelsior

eredivisie · 18:00 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	6
Position last season	5	13
Points this season	13	10
Goal difference this season	+12	+6
Elo rating going in	1,709	1,511
Matches on record, all seasons	543	356
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	7
Goals scored, last 5	3.4	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	2.2	2.5
Goals conceded, last 10	0.9	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	5	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	0
Wins in a row	2	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	4	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.0	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.2	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	22.2	11.2
Shots on target, last 5	8.4	4.2
Shots per possession	0.351	0.290
On-target shots per possession	0.120	0.116
Inside-box shots per possession	0.231	0.192
Share of shots from inside the box	64.9%	66.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.94	0.74
Possession, last 5	59.8%	42.4%
Corners, last 5	7.2	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.275	0.250
On-target allowed per possession	0.110	0.075
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.180	0.162
Opponents' inside-box share	64.0%	63.8%
Save rate	72.9%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	3.8	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.23	1.59
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	89.5%	79.0%
Passes, last 5	580	398
Fouls, last 5	9.0	12.2
Cards, last 5	2.2	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	20
Home side won	14
Drawn	5
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	60
Goals, away side	21

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 79.2% · Draw 12.5% · Away 8.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Angers v Estac Troyes

ligue-1 · 18:45 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	9	10
Position last season	13	—
Points this season	4	4
Goal difference this season	-1	-5
Elo rating going in	1,479	1,402
Matches on record, all seasons	366	194
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	0.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	2.1
Clean sheets, last 10	1	1
Failed to score, last 10	3	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	2
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	1.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	2.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.2	12.2
Shots on target, last 5	2.8	2.8
Shots per possession	0.267	0.240
On-target shots per possession	0.076	0.074
Inside-box shots per possession	0.173	0.158
Share of shots from inside the box	64.2%	66.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.44	0.78
Possession, last 5	47.6%	38.4%
Corners, last 5	7.8	5.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.285	0.315
On-target allowed per possession	0.128	0.122
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.188	0.211
Opponents' inside-box share	66.0%	66.4%
Save rate	76.8%	69.1%
Saves, last 5	5.2	4.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.37	1.11
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	82.7%	78.0%
Passes, last 5	403	339
Fouls, last 5	9.6	10.0
Cards, last 5	1.4	0.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	5
Drawn	1
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	11
Goals, away side	10

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 45.2% · Draw 27.9% · Away 26.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Lyon v Rennes

ligue-1 · 18:45 UK

Finished 4–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	1
Position last season	4	6
Points this season	8	10
Goal difference this season	+4	+3
Elo rating going in	1,668	1,658
Matches on record, all seasons	590	590
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.8	2.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	0
Wins in a row	0	3
Unbeaten run	4	4
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.6	19.0
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	5.8
Shots per possession	0.242	0.332
On-target shots per possession	0.096	0.116
Inside-box shots per possession	0.172	0.227
Share of shots from inside the box	71.0%	66.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.26	2.07
Possession, last 5	54.4%	51.0%
Corners, last 5	8.2	5.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.255	0.340
On-target allowed per possession	0.088	0.116
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.164	0.222
Opponents' inside-box share	61.1%	60.2%
Save rate	68.8%	67.6%
Saves, last 5	2.4	4.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.61	2.61
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	85.7%	82.7%
Passes, last 5	451	464
Fouls, last 5	10.2	12.4
Cards, last 5	1.0	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	31
Home side won	12
Drawn	7
Away side won	12
Goals, home side	41
Goals, away side	44

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 45.6% · Draw 25.1% · Away 29.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Toulouse v Le Havre

ligue-1 · 18:45 UK

Finished 3–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	17	16
Position last season	9	14
Points this season	2	2
Goal difference this season	-3	-2
Elo rating going in	1,554	1,499
Matches on record, all seasons	516	106
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	5
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.8	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	4	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	1	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.4	13.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	4.4
Shots per possession	0.273	0.243
On-target shots per possession	0.086	0.094
Inside-box shots per possession	0.172	0.161
Share of shots from inside the box	62.7%	69.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.31	0.84
Possession, last 5	50.2%	47.0%
Corners, last 5	3.8	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.247	0.265
On-target allowed per possession	0.091	0.101
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.154	0.163
Opponents' inside-box share	56.3%	59.8%
Save rate	69.0%	75.9%
Saves, last 5	2.6	4.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.99	1.46
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.3%	81.0%
Passes, last 5	400	383
Fouls, last 5	13.4	14.0
Cards, last 5	1.0	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	2
Drawn	1
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	8
Goals, away side	6

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 56.4% · Draw 23.5% · Away 20.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Venezia v Lazio

serie-a · 18:45 UK

Finished 0–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	20	1
Position last season	—	9
Points this season	0	10
Goal difference this season	-7	+3
Elo rating going in	1,455	1,696
Matches on record, all seasons	80	612
Recent form
Points, last 5	0	13
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	2.8	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	2.3	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	0	3
Failed to score, last 10	4	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	5
Losses in a row	6	0
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.2	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	2.4	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.2	13.4
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	5.2
Shots per possession	0.232	0.260
On-target shots per possession	0.076	0.111
Inside-box shots per possession	0.159	0.162
Share of shots from inside the box	70.5%	63.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.13	1.42
Possession, last 5	56.0%	46.0%
Corners, last 5	3.6	5.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.331	0.238
On-target allowed per possession	0.121	0.088
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.217	0.158
Opponents' inside-box share	64.4%	68.2%
Save rate	59.8%	70.3%
Saves, last 5	3.8	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.41	1.16
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	83.8%	85.6%
Passes, last 5	453	439
Fouls, last 5	10.6	14.0
Cards, last 5	2.2	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	0
Drawn	1
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	2
Goals, away side	7

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 24.7% · Draw 26.0% · Away 49.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Cadiz v Girona

laliga-2 · 19:00 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	17	9
Position last season	18	19
Points this season	3	7
Goal difference this season	-2	+3
Elo rating going in	1,363	1,562
Matches on record, all seasons	411	413
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	2	1
Failed to score, last 10	3	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	2	1
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	0.8	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.6	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	5.5	14.4
Shots on target, last 5	1.2	5.2
Shots per possession	0.161	0.301
On-target shots per possession	0.048	0.113
Inside-box shots per possession	0.103	0.187
Share of shots from inside the box	67.5%	62.2%
Expected goals, last 5	—	—
Possession, last 5	48.8%	49.2%
Corners, last 5	4.0	4.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.284	0.223
On-target allowed per possession	0.100	0.085
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.203	0.143
Opponents' inside-box share	68.6%	67.0%
Save rate	71.6%	68.8%
Saves, last 5	4.0	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	—	—
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	85.0%	89.3%
Passes, last 5	376	452
Fouls, last 5	11.5	10.8
Cards, last 5	2.2	3.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	3
Drawn	2
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	9
Goals, away side	9

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 25.1% · Draw 27.3% · Away 47.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Sevilla v Barcelona

la-liga · 19:00 UK

Finished 1–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	1
Position last season	15	1
Points this season	13	18
Goal difference this season	+3	+22
Elo rating going in	1,598	1,896
Matches on record, all seasons	614	614
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	15
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	4.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	3.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	2	4
Failed to score, last 10	2	1
Wins in a row	2	6
Unbeaten run	3	6
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	3.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.6	23.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	8.8
Shots per possession	0.283	0.249
On-target shots per possession	0.102	0.106
Inside-box shots per possession	0.157	0.191
Share of shots from inside the box	54.9%	76.7%
Expected goals, last 5	0.68	3.37
Possession, last 5	42.8%	71.6%
Corners, last 5	4.2	9.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.175	0.300
On-target allowed per possession	0.066	0.112
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.112	0.213
Opponents' inside-box share	60.4%	73.3%
Save rate	66.7%	64.1%
Saves, last 5	2.6	1.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.09	0.65
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	77.0%	90.0%
Passes, last 5	350	696
Fouls, last 5	14.6	8.8
Cards, last 5	3.2	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	2
Drawn	7
Away side won	23
Goals, home side	32
Goals, away side	80

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 7.5% · Draw 13.7% · Away 78.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Willem II v Fortuna Sittard

eredivisie · 19:00 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	17	7
Position last season	—	11
Points this season	2	10
Goal difference this season	-13	-2
Elo rating going in	1,390	1,522
Matches on record, all seasons	378	270
Recent form
Points, last 5	2	9
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	3.0	2.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	2.8	2.2
Clean sheets, last 10	0	0
Failed to score, last 10	1	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	1
Days since last match	4	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.0	9.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.0	4.6
Shots per possession	0.305	0.277
On-target shots per possession	0.084	0.128
Inside-box shots per possession	0.210	0.149
Share of shots from inside the box	68.9%	55.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.56	0.89
Possession, last 5	38.6%	34.4%
Corners, last 5	4.2	2.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.289	0.293
On-target allowed per possession	0.115	0.095
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.212	0.216
Opponents' inside-box share	73.9%	72.2%
Save rate	62.4%	63.3%
Saves, last 5	4.6	4.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.17	2.78
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	69.5%	71.7%
Passes, last 5	354	302
Fouls, last 5	8.0	9.6
Cards, last 5	0.8	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	3
Drawn	4
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	15
Goals, away side	15

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 36.1% · Draw 25.3% · Away 38.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Sporting CP v Arouca

primeira-liga · 19:30 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	5
Position last season	2	9
Points this season	14	10
Goal difference this season	+9	+3
Elo rating going in	1,901	1,591
Matches on record, all seasons	534	310
Recent form
Points, last 5	13	7
Goals scored, last 5	2.6	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	2.9	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	3	3
Failed to score, last 10	0	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	11	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	6	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	2.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.0	11.4
Shots on target, last 5	5.0	4.0
Shots per possession	0.221	0.210
On-target shots per possession	0.096	0.075
Inside-box shots per possession	0.155	0.118
Share of shots from inside the box	66.2%	55.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.08	1.44
Possession, last 5	64.2%	53.2%
Corners, last 5	5.0	3.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.209	0.291
On-target allowed per possession	0.058	0.097
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.114	0.186
Opponents' inside-box share	48.1%	63.1%
Save rate	71.3%	71.8%
Saves, last 5	1.2	4.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.57	1.39
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	89.3%	85.7%
Passes, last 5	545	483
Fouls, last 5	10.6	9.8
Cards, last 5	2.4	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	18
Home side won	15
Drawn	2
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	45
Goals, away side	12

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 78.1% · Draw 13.4% · Away 8.5% — bet365, pre_match.