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The data behind the ratings

Sunday 20 September 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

Feyenoord v Utrecht

eredivisie · 10:15 UK

Finished 5–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	13
Position last season	2	6
Points this season	14	5
Goal difference this season	+13	-8
Elo rating going in	1,745	1,629
Matches on record, all seasons	545	571
Recent form
Points, last 5	11	5
Goals scored, last 5	3.8	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	3.4
Goals scored, last 10	2.8	1.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	2.2
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	0	1
Wins in a row	2	1
Unbeaten run	15	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	3.6	1.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.6	1.4
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	22.4	11.2
Shots on target, last 5	8.4	3.8
Shots per possession	0.360	0.322
On-target shots per possession	0.135	0.117
Inside-box shots per possession	0.243	0.228
Share of shots from inside the box	67.7%	73.7%
Expected goals, last 5	2.60	1.02
Possession, last 5	55.4%	42.2%
Corners, last 5	5.4	3.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.209	0.298
On-target allowed per possession	0.060	0.110
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.124	0.168
Opponents' inside-box share	57.7%	59.7%
Save rate	67.4%	64.3%
Saves, last 5	2.2	4.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.94	2.23
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	88.0%	78.0%
Passes, last 5	511	388
Fouls, last 5	8.8	16.2
Cards, last 5	0.6	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	33
Home side won	21
Drawn	8
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	68
Goals, away side	37

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 75.8% · Draw 14.4% · Away 9.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Fiorentina v Napoli

serie-a · 10:30 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	15	9
Position last season	13	2
Points this season	3	6
Goal difference this season	-6	+1
Elo rating going in	1,610	1,762
Matches on record, all seasons	612	612
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	9
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	2.4	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	3	6
Failed to score, last 10	5	2
Wins in a row	1	1
Unbeaten run	1	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	9	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.6	12.6
Shots on target, last 5	5.6	3.8
Shots per possession	0.291	0.253
On-target shots per possession	0.100	0.074
Inside-box shots per possession	0.183	0.167
Share of shots from inside the box	63.1%	61.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.59	1.25
Possession, last 5	43.2%	50.4%
Corners, last 5	4.2	4.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.258	0.266
On-target allowed per possession	0.094	0.096
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.171	0.173
Opponents' inside-box share	65.5%	64.1%
Save rate	69.0%	72.5%
Saves, last 5	3.4	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.48	0.56
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	83.0%	89.2%
Passes, last 5	371	471
Fouls, last 5	11.0	8.2
Cards, last 5	1.2	0.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	5
Drawn	10
Away side won	17
Goals, home side	31
Goals, away side	54

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 30.1% · Draw 27.8% · Away 42.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Celtic v Rangers

scottish-prem · 11:00 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	2
Position last season	1	3
Points this season	18	13
Goal difference this season	+11	+3
Elo rating going in	1,810	1,719
Matches on record, all seasons	601	448
Recent form
Points, last 5	15	12
Goals scored, last 5	2.6	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	0.6	0.6
Goals scored, last 10	2.5	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	0.8	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	3	3
Failed to score, last 10	0	0
Wins in a row	13	4
Unbeaten run	13	4
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	11	11
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	2.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	23.4	20.8
Shots on target, last 5	10.6	6.6
Shots per possession	0.312	0.334
On-target shots per possession	0.122	0.108
Inside-box shots per possession	0.218	0.232
Share of shots from inside the box	69.3%	69.6%
Expected goals, last 5	4.26	1.94
Possession, last 5	60.2%	56.8%
Corners, last 5	9.8	7.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.271	0.231
On-target allowed per possession	0.083	0.080
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.173	0.171
Opponents' inside-box share	66.3%	74.4%
Save rate	72.5%	67.3%
Saves, last 5	3.0	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.70	1.09
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	90.5%	85.5%
Passes, last 5	619	473
Fouls, last 5	10.2	12.8
Cards, last 5	1.0	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	46
Home side won	22
Drawn	10
Away side won	14
Goals, home side	80
Goals, away side	58

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 42.8% · Draw 25.6% · Away 31.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Wolves v West Brom

championship · 11:00 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	8	2
Position last season	20	19
Points this season	11	14
Goal difference this season	+4	+3
Elo rating going in	1,595	1,520
Matches on record, all seasons	662	675
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	8
Goals scored, last 5	2.4	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	0.9
Clean sheets, last 10	1	4
Failed to score, last 10	1	1
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	2	4
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.2	9.2
Shots on target, last 5	5.0	3.5
Shots per possession	0.317	0.201
On-target shots per possession	0.091	0.089
Inside-box shots per possession	0.219	0.147
Share of shots from inside the box	70.6%	73.8%
Expected goals, last 5	2.09	1.40
Possession, last 5	54.5%	50.2%
Corners, last 5	6.0	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.224	0.241
On-target allowed per possession	0.076	0.083
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.142	0.173
Opponents' inside-box share	63.4%	70.3%
Save rate	68.4%	81.2%
Saves, last 5	2.0	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.77	2.46
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	85.0%	89.0%
Passes, last 5	424	482
Fouls, last 5	12.5	11.0
Cards, last 5	0.8	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	1
Drawn	2
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	8
Goals, away side	13

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 51.3% · Draw 26.0% · Away 22.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Getafe v Malaga

la-liga · 12:00 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	15	19
Position last season	7	4
Points this season	5	3
Goal difference this season	-4	-8
Elo rating going in	1,574	1,532
Matches on record, all seasons	622	610
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	3
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	0.7	0.7
Goals conceded, last 10	0.9	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	3	3
Failed to score, last 10	5	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	1
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	0.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.2	10.8
Shots on target, last 5	2.0	1.8
Shots per possession	0.244	0.219
On-target shots per possession	0.057	0.056
Inside-box shots per possession	0.132	0.135
Share of shots from inside the box	54.9%	64.1%
Expected goals, last 5	0.84	1.34
Possession, last 5	37.8%	50.4%
Corners, last 5	4.0	5.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.208	0.257
On-target allowed per possession	0.072	0.089
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.119	0.144
Opponents' inside-box share	59.8%	55.3%
Save rate	73.2%	68.7%
Saves, last 5	2.8	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.24	1.73
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	74.3%	89.0%
Passes, last 5	307	494
Fouls, last 5	14.8	12.6
Cards, last 5	3.6	2.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	14
Home side won	6
Drawn	1
Away side won	7
Goals, home side	14
Goals, away side	19

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 47.0% · Draw 31.4% · Away 21.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Sabadell v Oviedo

laliga-2 · 12:00 UK

Finished 3–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	11	5
Position last season	—	20
Points this season	8	8
Goal difference this season	+0	+3
Elo rating going in	1,446	1,511
Matches on record, all seasons	47	429
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	8
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	0.2
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	0.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	5	5
Failed to score, last 10	5	8
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	3
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	0.4	0.8
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	1.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.6	15.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.2	4.2
Shots per possession	0.277	0.265
On-target shots per possession	0.084	0.068
Inside-box shots per possession	0.172	0.170
Share of shots from inside the box	59.9%	62.6%
Expected goals, last 5	—	—
Possession, last 5	45.2%	49.6%
Corners, last 5	5.0	5.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.203	0.256
On-target allowed per possession	0.074	0.065
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.101	0.151
Opponents' inside-box share	52.6%	58.2%
Save rate	71.6%	69.8%
Saves, last 5	2.8	1.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	—	—
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	65.7%	81.0%
Passes, last 5	326	407
Fouls, last 5	17.4	13.2
Cards, last 5	3.2	2.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	0
Drawn	0
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	1
Goals, away side	3

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 39.8% · Draw 32.6% · Away 27.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

AZ Alkmaar v Telstar

eredivisie · 12:30 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	13
Position last season	7	14
Points this season	16	5
Goal difference this season	+11	-6
Elo rating going in	1,668	1,540
Matches on record, all seasons	555	46
Recent form
Points, last 5	13	2
Goals scored, last 5	3.0	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	2.3	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	12	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	9	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.6	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.6	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	0.8
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	21.4	8.8
Shots on target, last 5	8.2	2.2
Shots per possession	0.331	0.229
On-target shots per possession	0.115	0.078
Inside-box shots per possession	0.205	0.172
Share of shots from inside the box	63.3%	76.2%
Expected goals, last 5	2.89	1.26
Possession, last 5	59.6%	43.8%
Corners, last 5	9.2	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.241	0.280
On-target allowed per possession	0.089	0.103
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.146	0.186
Opponents' inside-box share	61.2%	66.6%
Save rate	70.1%	72.3%
Saves, last 5	1.8	5.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.03	2.13
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	86.0%	83.0%
Passes, last 5	544	382
Fouls, last 5	10.6	10.0
Cards, last 5	1.0	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	2
Drawn	0
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	3
Goals, away side	1

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 77.2% · Draw 13.4% · Away 9.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Norwich v Bolton

championship · 12:30 UK

Finished 3–4. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	11	17
Position last season	9	5
Points this season	9	7
Goal difference this season	+0	-5
Elo rating going in	1,532	1,475
Matches on record, all seasons	654	677
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	3
Goals scored, last 5	2.4	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	0	4
Failed to score, last 10	2	3
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	8	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.8	13.2
Shots on target, last 5	6.2	5.2
Shots per possession	0.305	0.219
On-target shots per possession	0.111	0.080
Inside-box shots per possession	0.197	0.140
Share of shots from inside the box	64.1%	67.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.92	1.54
Possession, last 5	47.5%	55.5%
Corners, last 5	4.5	7.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.253	0.220
On-target allowed per possession	0.104	0.096
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.193	0.174
Opponents' inside-box share	75.5%	75.9%
Save rate	63.6%	73.7%
Saves, last 5	2.5	4.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.95	1.05
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.0%	86.0%
Passes, last 5	383	430
Fouls, last 5	12.0	10.8
Cards, last 5	2.8	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	6
Drawn	1
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	16
Goals, away side	7

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 64.6% · Draw 19.7% · Away 15.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Twente v PSV Eindhoven

eredivisie · 12:30 UK

Finished 3–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	1
Position last season	4	1
Points this season	13	16
Goal difference this season	+7	+15
Elo rating going in	1,675	1,862
Matches on record, all seasons	520	542
Recent form
Points, last 5	13	15
Goals scored, last 5	2.4	4.0
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	2.0	3.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	3	0
Failed to score, last 10	1	0
Wins in a row	2	5
Unbeaten run	5	12
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.2	4.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.4	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	22.4	23.0
Shots on target, last 5	9.0	9.8
Shots per possession	0.345	0.315
On-target shots per possession	0.134	0.137
Inside-box shots per possession	0.234	0.219
Share of shots from inside the box	65.7%	69.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.94	3.22
Possession, last 5	62.2%	62.0%
Corners, last 5	7.6	7.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.264	0.253
On-target allowed per possession	0.088	0.122
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.145	0.167
Opponents' inside-box share	58.6%	68.5%
Save rate	67.3%	67.7%
Saves, last 5	2.6	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.57	0.57
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	88.5%	89.7%
Passes, last 5	567	591
Fouls, last 5	10.6	8.0
Cards, last 5	0.8	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	30
Home side won	5
Drawn	8
Away side won	17
Goals, home side	41
Goals, away side	74

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 32.2% · Draw 23.4% · Away 44.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Auxerre v Stade Brestois 29

ligue-1 · 13:00 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	13	7
Position last season	15	12
Points this season	3	5
Goal difference this season	-6	+0
Elo rating going in	1,513	1,563
Matches on record, all seasons	188	362
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	6
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.8	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	3	0
Failed to score, last 10	1	3
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.4	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.0	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.0	18.2
Shots on target, last 5	5.0	6.0
Shots per possession	0.260	0.286
On-target shots per possession	0.118	0.095
Inside-box shots per possession	0.177	0.188
Share of shots from inside the box	67.7%	66.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.21	1.99
Possession, last 5	40.6%	48.4%
Corners, last 5	4.8	5.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.241	0.269
On-target allowed per possession	0.101	0.092
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.178	0.170
Opponents' inside-box share	74.8%	62.8%
Save rate	64.4%	63.8%
Saves, last 5	3.8	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.60	0.83
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	78.3%	82.0%
Passes, last 5	347	407
Fouls, last 5	14.0	13.6
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	3
Drawn	3
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	14
Goals, away side	9

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 33.2% · Draw 27.5% · Away 39.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Bournemouth v Liverpool

premier-league · 13:00 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	15	6
Position last season	6	5
Points this season	3	6
Goal difference this season	-1	+2
Elo rating going in	1,766	1,810
Matches on record, all seasons	624	612
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	0	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	3	5
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	8	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.8	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.2	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.2	17.6
Shots on target, last 5	5.6	5.8
Shots per possession	0.283	0.254
On-target shots per possession	0.102	0.088
Inside-box shots per possession	0.165	0.155
Share of shots from inside the box	59.6%	60.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.24	2.29
Possession, last 5	49.2%	60.4%
Corners, last 5	4.2	6.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.227	0.298
On-target allowed per possession	0.073	0.111
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.172	0.206
Opponents' inside-box share	77.0%	68.6%
Save rate	63.7%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	2.4	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.94	1.76
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.7%	86.3%
Passes, last 5	419	520
Fouls, last 5	11.2	12.2
Cards, last 5	2.8	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	18
Home side won	3
Drawn	1
Away side won	14
Goals, home side	15
Goals, away side	54

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 30.0% · Draw 25.4% · Away 44.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Frosinone v Como

serie-a · 13:00 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	5	2
Position last season	—	4
Points this season	7	10
Goal difference this season	+3	+5
Elo rating going in	1,488	1,736
Matches on record, all seasons	118	80
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	13
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	2.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	0.7
Clean sheets, last 10	5	4
Failed to score, last 10	5	1
Wins in a row	0	3
Unbeaten run	3	9
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	8	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.8	20.8
Shots on target, last 5	5.4	6.8
Shots per possession	0.357	0.280
On-target shots per possession	0.122	0.088
Inside-box shots per possession	0.215	0.190
Share of shots from inside the box	59.9%	68.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.08	2.06
Possession, last 5	46.0%	62.6%
Corners, last 5	6.6	7.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.273	0.262
On-target allowed per possession	0.065	0.064
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.159	0.165
Opponents' inside-box share	56.8%	65.1%
Save rate	70.3%	69.0%
Saves, last 5	3.6	1.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.63	1.41
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	74.2%	89.5%
Passes, last 5	304	594
Fouls, last 5	14.4	8.6
Cards, last 5	1.8	0.8

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 14.4% · Draw 21.3% · Away 64.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Leeds v Crystal Palace

premier-league · 13:00 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	16
Position last season	14	15
Points this season	8	3
Goal difference this season	+4	-5
Elo rating going in	1,742	1,683
Matches on record, all seasons	667	593
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	3
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	2.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	2.6
Clean sheets, last 10	3	0
Failed to score, last 10	1	3
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	4	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	6	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.4	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.6	2.2
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.4	9.8
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	3.4
Shots per possession	0.273	0.263
On-target shots per possession	0.090	0.091
Inside-box shots per possession	0.189	0.202
Share of shots from inside the box	68.3%	78.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.18	1.20
Possession, last 5	46.8%	41.4%
Corners, last 5	4.4	2.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.264	0.277
On-target allowed per possession	0.092	0.097
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.191	0.203
Opponents' inside-box share	71.2%	72.4%
Save rate	72.0%	59.0%
Saves, last 5	4.0	4.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.61	1.71
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	76.7%	83.0%
Passes, last 5	367	389
Fouls, last 5	11.4	9.0
Cards, last 5	1.6	0.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	12
Home side won	5
Drawn	4
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	18
Goals, away side	18

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 57.0% · Draw 23.8% · Away 19.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Manchester City v Sunderland

premier-league · 13:00 UK

Finished 5–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	14
Position last season	2	7
Points this season	12	4
Goal difference this season	+6	-2
Elo rating going in	1,924	1,676
Matches on record, all seasons	612	679
Recent form
Points, last 5	12	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	2.0	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	0.8	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	5	2
Failed to score, last 10	0	3
Wins in a row	4	0
Unbeaten run	4	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	7	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.6	14.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	4.4
Shots per possession	0.267	0.260
On-target shots per possession	0.088	0.085
Inside-box shots per possession	0.179	0.176
Share of shots from inside the box	66.8%	66.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.72	1.45
Possession, last 5	62.8%	48.2%
Corners, last 5	6.8	4.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.291	0.233
On-target allowed per possession	0.089	0.078
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.197	0.147
Opponents' inside-box share	67.4%	62.3%
Save rate	74.9%	61.5%
Saves, last 5	2.6	1.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.99	1.14
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	90.3%	84.3%
Passes, last 5	624	391
Fouls, last 5	9.2	13.2
Cards, last 5	1.6	3.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	16
Home side won	9
Drawn	3
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	32
Goals, away side	14

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 72.2% · Draw 17.0% · Away 10.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Parma v Genoa

serie-a · 13:00 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	17	19
Position last season	12	16
Points this season	1	1
Goal difference this season	-4	-6
Elo rating going in	1,538	1,548
Matches on record, all seasons	384	574
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	1
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	0.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	0.7	0.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	4	6
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	6	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Scored away, last 5 there	0.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.6	10.6
Shots on target, last 5	3.0	2.2
Shots per possession	0.208	0.209
On-target shots per possession	0.062	0.050
Inside-box shots per possession	0.137	0.132
Share of shots from inside the box	71.0%	62.3%
Expected goals, last 5	0.83	0.93
Possession, last 5	45.0%	51.2%
Corners, last 5	2.8	5.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.270	0.274
On-target allowed per possession	0.079	0.086
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.188	0.173
Opponents' inside-box share	68.9%	61.4%
Save rate	74.1%	70.4%
Saves, last 5	3.4	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.64	1.28
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	83.5%	81.0%
Passes, last 5	369	413
Fouls, last 5	9.2	7.8
Cards, last 5	1.4	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	20
Home side won	6
Drawn	7
Away side won	7
Goals, home side	26
Goals, away side	22

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 30.3% · Draw 31.9% · Away 37.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Bayer Leverkusen v RB Leipzig

bundesliga · 13:30 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	6	4
Position last season	6	3
Points this season	4	6
Goal difference this season	+3	+6
Elo rating going in	1,701	1,671
Matches on record, all seasons	547	343
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	9
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	2.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	2.4	2.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	0	0
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	2	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	20.8	18.0
Shots on target, last 5	6.6	6.6
Shots per possession	0.334	0.313
On-target shots per possession	0.113	0.125
Inside-box shots per possession	0.238	0.222
Share of shots from inside the box	69.0%	69.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.91	2.19
Possession, last 5	61.0%	62.2%
Corners, last 5	8.4	5.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.344	0.292
On-target allowed per possession	0.134	0.108
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.221	0.197
Opponents' inside-box share	62.3%	67.0%
Save rate	63.4%	64.1%
Saves, last 5	3.2	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.98	1.04
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	86.3%	86.7%
Passes, last 5	548	593
Fouls, last 5	10.8	8.2
Cards, last 5	1.4	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	20
Home side won	7
Drawn	5
Away side won	8
Goals, home side	35
Goals, away side	33

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 47.8% · Draw 23.2% · Away 29.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Erzurumspor FK v Samsunspor

super-lig · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	15	14
Position last season	—	7
Points this season	4	4
Goal difference this season	-9	-5
Elo rating going in	1,506	1,639
Matches on record, all seasons	79	147
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	4
Goals scored, last 5	0.4	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	1.8
Goals conceded, last 10	2.1	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	4	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	3
Days since last match	9	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.2	14.2
Shots on target, last 5	2.8	2.8
Shots per possession	0.274	0.234
On-target shots per possession	0.086	0.080
Inside-box shots per possession	0.150	0.155
Share of shots from inside the box	54.4%	63.8%
Expected goals, last 5	0.55	1.10
Possession, last 5	42.6%	56.6%
Corners, last 5	3.2	3.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.271	0.395
On-target allowed per possession	0.090	0.133
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.190	0.261
Opponents' inside-box share	71.3%	64.1%
Save rate	61.5%	68.0%
Saves, last 5	2.0	4.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.69	1.64
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	83.2%	84.2%
Passes, last 5	397	512
Fouls, last 5	11.6	11.6
Cards, last 5	1.0	0.4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 35.7% · Draw 29.6% · Away 34.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Fenerbahçe v Eyüpspor

super-lig · 14:00 UK

Finished 8–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	10	16
Position last season	2	15
Points this season	7	3
Goal difference this season	+2	-6
Elo rating going in	1,831	1,546
Matches on record, all seasons	539	75
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	3
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	0.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.9	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	2
Days since last match	6	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.8	12.2
Shots on target, last 5	7.0	3.0
Shots per possession	0.311	0.245
On-target shots per possession	0.122	0.089
Inside-box shots per possession	0.203	0.121
Share of shots from inside the box	63.0%	48.3%
Expected goals, last 5	2.39	0.81
Possession, last 5	52.2%	48.6%
Corners, last 5	6.2	3.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.254	0.246
On-target allowed per possession	0.091	0.076
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.144	0.147
Opponents' inside-box share	56.9%	60.1%
Save rate	63.7%	69.8%
Saves, last 5	2.8	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.97	1.15
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	89.0%	83.0%
Passes, last 5	468	384
Fouls, last 5	13.5	13.4
Cards, last 5	1.2	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	2
Drawn	2
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	9
Goals, away side	5

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 81.6% · Draw 12.1% · Away 6.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

AD Ceuta FC v Valladolid

laliga-2 · 14:15 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	22	17
Position last season	9	16
Points this season	0	4
Goal difference this season	-13	-5
Elo rating going in	1,434	1,376
Matches on record, all seasons	47	485
Recent form
Points, last 5	0	4
Goals scored, last 5	0.4	0.4
Goals conceded, last 5	3.0	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	0.6
Goals conceded, last 10	2.1	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	5
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	5	1
Days since last match	9	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.6	11.4
Shots on target, last 5	2.8	3.0
Shots per possession	0.215	0.207
On-target shots per possession	0.072	0.057
Inside-box shots per possession	0.133	0.126
Share of shots from inside the box	61.0%	62.5%
Expected goals, last 5	—	—
Possession, last 5	47.8%	51.0%
Corners, last 5	5.2	3.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.254	0.249
On-target allowed per possession	0.092	0.098
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.181	0.154
Opponents' inside-box share	69.9%	62.2%
Save rate	59.2%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	2.2	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	—	—
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.7%	84.7%
Passes, last 5	397	466
Fouls, last 5	15.0	12.2
Cards, last 5	2.2	3.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	0
Drawn	0
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	0
Goals, away side	6

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 34.1% · Draw 28.1% · Away 37.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid

la-liga · 14:15 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	2
Position last season	4	2
Points this season	13	15
Goal difference this season	+8	+11
Elo rating going in	1,740	1,848
Matches on record, all seasons	614	614
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	12
Goals scored, last 5	2.4	3.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.8	2.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	4	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	2	2
Unbeaten run	2	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	4	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.6	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.2	20.6
Shots on target, last 5	6.0	8.4
Shots per possession	0.279	0.290
On-target shots per possession	0.096	0.111
Inside-box shots per possession	0.181	0.211
Share of shots from inside the box	66.9%	73.8%
Expected goals, last 5	0.82	2.74
Possession, last 5	57.2%	53.2%
Corners, last 5	5.2	7.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.263	0.260
On-target allowed per possession	0.094	0.085
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.172	0.150
Opponents' inside-box share	65.1%	59.4%
Save rate	70.3%	71.4%
Saves, last 5	2.6	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.28	0.65
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	87.0%	91.5%
Passes, last 5	560	548
Fouls, last 5	10.0	9.2
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	7
Drawn	12
Away side won	13
Goals, home side	35
Goals, away side	46

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 27.3% · Draw 24.8% · Away 47.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Estrela v Academico Viseu

primeira-liga · 14:30 UK

Finished 0–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	6	7
Position last season	15	—
Points this season	10	8
Goal difference this season	+2	-2
Elo rating going in	1,531	1,622
Matches on record, all seasons	110	6
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	7
Goals scored, last 5	2.4	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.9	—
Goals conceded, last 10	1.9	—
Clean sheets, last 10	1	1
Failed to score, last 10	1	2
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	8	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	6	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.7
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.7
Scored away, last 5 there	2.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.4	9.8
Shots on target, last 5	5.2	2.8
Shots per possession	0.245	0.201
On-target shots per possession	0.096	0.067
Inside-box shots per possession	0.175	0.137
Share of shots from inside the box	71.5%	64.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.70	1.11
Possession, last 5	48.6%	49.8%
Corners, last 5	3.6	3.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.229	0.321
On-target allowed per possession	0.089	0.107
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.128	0.229
Opponents' inside-box share	55.9%	71.4%
Save rate	62.8%	70.3%
Saves, last 5	2.6	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.29	1.34
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	83.0%	84.0%
Passes, last 5	384	411
Fouls, last 5	11.2	13.4
Cards, last 5	2.6	2.6

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 43.7% · Draw 29.2% · Away 27.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Guimaraes v Moreirense

primeira-liga · 14:30 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	12	11
Position last season	8	7
Points this season	4	7
Goal difference this season	-3	-6
Elo rating going in	1,574	1,567
Matches on record, all seasons	534	412
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	6
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	0.7	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	2.1
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	5	4
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	8	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	18.8	7.4
Shots on target, last 5	5.0	2.8
Shots per possession	0.302	0.205
On-target shots per possession	0.075	0.074
Inside-box shots per possession	0.177	0.121
Share of shots from inside the box	57.4%	57.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.53	0.39
Possession, last 5	53.2%	36.2%
Corners, last 5	6.4	2.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.190	0.263
On-target allowed per possession	0.092	0.082
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.129	0.183
Opponents' inside-box share	66.8%	69.6%
Save rate	63.2%	57.7%
Saves, last 5	1.6	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.79	1.46
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	79.7%	72.0%
Passes, last 5	427	318
Fouls, last 5	16.8	14.0
Cards, last 5	3.0	3.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	24
Home side won	16
Drawn	4
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	35
Goals, away side	20

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 63.1% · Draw 22.5% · Away 14.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

NEC Nijmegen v GO Ahead Eagles

eredivisie · 14:45 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	10	7
Position last season	3	12
Points this season	7	9
Goal difference this season	-1	+2
Elo rating going in	1,596	1,557
Matches on record, all seasons	387	280
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	6
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	2.2
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	2.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	1.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	2.1
Clean sheets, last 10	0	1
Failed to score, last 10	1	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	2
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	8	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.6	14.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	5.6
Shots per possession	0.296	0.256
On-target shots per possession	0.086	0.098
Inside-box shots per possession	0.179	0.172
Share of shots from inside the box	59.5%	69.2%
Expected goals, last 5	2.50	1.45
Possession, last 5	62.0%	52.4%
Corners, last 5	3.4	5.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.279	0.424
On-target allowed per possession	0.117	0.107
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.194	0.278
Opponents' inside-box share	72.6%	63.5%
Save rate	62.6%	64.9%
Saves, last 5	2.2	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.71	2.08
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	76.0%	81.0%
Passes, last 5	513	460
Fouls, last 5	11.6	8.0
Cards, last 5	1.8	0.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	15
Home side won	3
Drawn	6
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	22
Goals, away side	28

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 50.1% · Draw 22.6% · Away 27.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Nice v Lille

ligue-1 · 15:15 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	18	1
Position last season	16	3
Points this season	2	10
Goal difference this season	-4	+5
Elo rating going in	1,540	1,705
Matches on record, all seasons	592	590
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	0.8	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	0.5
Clean sheets, last 10	3	7
Failed to score, last 10	5	2
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	0	4
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	0.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.2	11.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.2	5.4
Shots per possession	0.223	0.223
On-target shots per possession	0.069	0.104
Inside-box shots per possession	0.152	0.146
Share of shots from inside the box	67.1%	65.9%
Expected goals, last 5	0.74	1.35
Possession, last 5	59.4%	50.6%
Corners, last 5	6.0	2.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.268	0.224
On-target allowed per possession	0.079	0.066
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.160	0.142
Opponents' inside-box share	55.1%	66.1%
Save rate	67.3%	75.4%
Saves, last 5	2.0	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.81	1.27
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	87.7%	85.0%
Passes, last 5	572	478
Fouls, last 5	7.6	10.6
Cards, last 5	1.4	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	31
Home side won	11
Drawn	14
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	40
Goals, away side	34

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 25.7% · Draw 27.3% · Away 47.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

FC Schalke 04 v SV Elversberg

bundesliga · 15:30 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	7	6
Position last season	—	—
Points this season	4	6
Goal difference this season	-1	+1
Elo rating going in	1,462	1,585
Matches on record, all seasons	411	5
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	2.2
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	—
Goals conceded, last 10	2.5	—
Clean sheets, last 10	1	0
Failed to score, last 10	4	0
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	9	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.7
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	3.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.0	10.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	4.6
Shots per possession	0.288	0.243
On-target shots per possession	0.121	0.109
Inside-box shots per possession	0.178	0.156
Share of shots from inside the box	61.3%	60.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.26	1.12
Possession, last 5	40.4%	43.8%
Corners, last 5	4.2	3.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.308	0.379
On-target allowed per possession	0.140	0.104
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.222	0.251
Opponents' inside-box share	72.4%	65.4%
Save rate	66.0%	59.7%
Saves, last 5	5.8	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.60	1.93
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	72.3%	75.3%
Passes, last 5	329	377
Fouls, last 5	8.6	11.8
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 46.9% · Draw 26.6% · Away 26.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Fulham v Manchester United

premier-league · 15:30 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	17	13
Position last season	11	3
Points this season	1	4
Goal difference this season	-3	+0
Elo rating going in	1,687	1,789
Matches on record, all seasons	668	612
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	0.8	1.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	4	3
Failed to score, last 10	5	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	0.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.8	19.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	6.0
Shots per possession	0.265	0.327
On-target shots per possession	0.070	0.103
Inside-box shots per possession	0.166	0.201
Share of shots from inside the box	63.0%	56.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.32	2.68
Possession, last 5	54.6%	58.0%
Corners, last 5	6.2	5.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.278	0.258
On-target allowed per possession	0.097	0.084
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.194	0.171
Opponents' inside-box share	68.2%	65.1%
Save rate	68.8%	72.3%
Saves, last 5	2.6	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.25	1.35
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.7%	86.7%
Passes, last 5	534	533
Fouls, last 5	10.8	10.4
Cards, last 5	1.4	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	20
Home side won	1
Drawn	4
Away side won	15
Goals, home side	17
Goals, away side	41

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 27.4% · Draw 25.0% · Away 47.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Juventus v Atalanta

serie-a · 16:00 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	8	9
Position last season	6	7
Points this season	7	6
Goal difference this season	+2	+0
Elo rating going in	1,740	1,694
Matches on record, all seasons	612	574
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	0.9	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	5	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	2
Days since last match	7	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	18.0	13.8
Shots on target, last 5	5.6	4.2
Shots per possession	0.309	0.240
On-target shots per possession	0.101	0.078
Inside-box shots per possession	0.190	0.155
Share of shots from inside the box	61.9%	65.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.65	0.88
Possession, last 5	56.4%	50.8%
Corners, last 5	8.8	2.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.204	0.317
On-target allowed per possession	0.072	0.123
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.110	0.205
Opponents' inside-box share	54.1%	63.6%
Save rate	70.2%	78.1%
Saves, last 5	2.2	5.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.60	1.51
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	86.5%	89.5%
Passes, last 5	477	541
Fouls, last 5	14.8	10.4
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	30
Home side won	15
Drawn	12
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	52
Goals, away side	29

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 56.3% · Draw 25.4% · Away 18.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Almeria v Celta de Vigo II

laliga-2 · 16:30 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	14
Position last season	3	—
Points this season	9	7
Goal difference this season	+4	-1
Elo rating going in	1,520	1,457
Matches on record, all seasons	541	5
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	—
Goals conceded, last 10	0.9	—
Clean sheets, last 10	4	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	2
Wins in a row	2	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	8	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.7
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.7
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.8	15.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.4	6.0
Shots per possession	0.237	0.300
On-target shots per possession	0.081	0.125
Inside-box shots per possession	0.157	0.174
Share of shots from inside the box	65.3%	60.2%
Expected goals, last 5	—	—
Possession, last 5	54.4%	49.5%
Corners, last 5	4.0	4.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.243	0.304
On-target allowed per possession	0.067	0.123
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.171	0.199
Opponents' inside-box share	72.8%	66.7%
Save rate	73.5%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	2.2	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	—	—
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.3%	75.5%
Passes, last 5	479	457
Fouls, last 5	11.0	12.8
Cards, last 5	2.0	2.6

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 67.8% · Draw 19.3% · Away 13.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Deportivo La Coruna v Real Betis

la-liga · 16:30 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	7	3
Position last season	2	5
Points this season	9	15
Goal difference this season	+2	+2
Elo rating going in	1,550	1,725
Matches on record, all seasons	404	538
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	12
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	2	4
Failed to score, last 10	1	0
Wins in a row	0	3
Unbeaten run	0	3
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	4	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.4	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.2	0.4
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	7.8	18.6
Shots on target, last 5	3.4	6.8
Shots per possession	0.215	0.341
On-target shots per possession	0.093	0.135
Inside-box shots per possession	0.156	0.195
Share of shots from inside the box	68.4%	53.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.27	1.33
Possession, last 5	48.8%	54.6%
Corners, last 5	4.2	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.222	0.294
On-target allowed per possession	0.068	0.119
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.116	0.196
Opponents' inside-box share	53.8%	65.5%
Save rate	74.4%	71.4%
Saves, last 5	3.2	4.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.65	2.07
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	87.0%	87.5%
Passes, last 5	456	514
Fouls, last 5	12.8	10.0
Cards, last 5	2.4	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	1
Drawn	4
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	9
Goals, away side	11

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 27.1% · Draw 25.7% · Away 47.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Las Palmas v Burgos

laliga-2 · 16:30 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	3
Position last season	5	7
Points this season	10	8
Goal difference this season	+1	+2
Elo rating going in	1,537	1,522
Matches on record, all seasons	451	215
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	8
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	0.6
Clean sheets, last 10	3	6
Failed to score, last 10	2	4
Wins in a row	1	1
Unbeaten run	2	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	8	9
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.8	11.0
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	2.8
Shots per possession	0.200	0.246
On-target shots per possession	0.071	0.078
Inside-box shots per possession	0.124	0.170
Share of shots from inside the box	61.0%	66.9%
Expected goals, last 5	—	—
Possession, last 5	53.0%	51.6%
Corners, last 5	4.0	3.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.264	0.294
On-target allowed per possession	0.086	0.075
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.186	0.174
Opponents' inside-box share	70.6%	57.5%
Save rate	68.9%	77.4%
Saves, last 5	2.8	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	—	—
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	87.3%	79.0%
Passes, last 5	456	444
Fouls, last 5	12.0	17.2
Cards, last 5	1.4	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	0
Drawn	4
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	0
Goals, away side	4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 46.4% · Draw 30.9% · Away 22.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Villarreal v Levante

la-liga · 16:30 UK

Finished 3–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	14	13
Position last season	3	18
Points this season	5	5
Goal difference this season	-1	-2
Elo rating going in	1,695	1,585
Matches on record, all seasons	576	633
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.8	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.8	2.0
Clean sheets, last 10	0	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	3
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	3	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.6	11.6
Shots on target, last 5	6.4	4.2
Shots per possession	0.224	0.362
On-target shots per possession	0.096	0.131
Inside-box shots per possession	0.154	0.237
Share of shots from inside the box	68.4%	61.3%
Expected goals, last 5	2.44	1.53
Possession, last 5	62.2%	40.4%
Corners, last 5	6.8	3.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.330	0.233
On-target allowed per possession	0.114	0.101
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.194	0.150
Opponents' inside-box share	60.1%	63.7%
Save rate	67.7%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	2.6	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.76	1.40
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	88.5%	83.3%
Passes, last 5	598	352
Fouls, last 5	10.4	10.0
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	22
Home side won	14
Drawn	1
Away side won	7
Goals, home side	38
Goals, away side	18

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 63.8% · Draw 19.8% · Away 16.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Amed v Beşiktaş

super-lig · 17:00 UK

Finished 3–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	1
Position last season	—	4
Points this season	10	12
Goal difference this season	+7	+8
Elo rating going in	1,649	1,728
Matches on record, all seasons	5	539
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	12
Goals scored, last 5	2.4	2.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	—	1.8
Goals conceded, last 10	—	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	2	4
Failed to score, last 10	1	2
Wins in a row	1	3
Unbeaten run	3	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	9
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	3.3	2.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.3	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.8	17.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	6.0
Shots per possession	0.317	0.291
On-target shots per possession	0.097	0.098
Inside-box shots per possession	0.183	0.184
Share of shots from inside the box	55.6%	62.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.96	1.75
Possession, last 5	48.4%	62.2%
Corners, last 5	4.8	8.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.184	0.300
On-target allowed per possession	0.069	0.084
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.106	0.158
Opponents' inside-box share	55.7%	47.0%
Save rate	69.4%	67.3%
Saves, last 5	2.4	1.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.70	0.37
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	82.8%	87.5%
Passes, last 5	421	518
Fouls, last 5	12.4	15.0
Cards, last 5	2.2	2.0

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 22.2% · Draw 24.2% · Away 53.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Estoril v Casa Pia

primeira-liga · 17:00 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	17	18
Position last season	10	16
Points this season	2	1
Goal difference this season	-6	-14
Elo rating going in	1,530	1,508
Matches on record, all seasons	372	144
Recent form
Points, last 5	1	1
Goals scored, last 5	0.2	0.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	2.8
Goals scored, last 10	0.5	0.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	1	4
Failed to score, last 10	5	6
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	1
Days since last match	6	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.6
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.2	10.4
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	2.4
Shots per possession	0.249	0.277
On-target shots per possession	0.083	0.094
Inside-box shots per possession	0.148	0.172
Share of shots from inside the box	57.8%	64.9%
Expected goals, last 5	0.78	0.55
Possession, last 5	44.0%	41.2%
Corners, last 5	4.0	3.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.237	0.255
On-target allowed per possession	0.081	0.075
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.156	0.166
Opponents' inside-box share	70.3%	62.9%
Save rate	61.4%	65.6%
Saves, last 5	3.0	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.60	1.69
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	78.7%	81.3%
Passes, last 5	395	319
Fouls, last 5	12.0	11.2
Cards, last 5	2.8	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	3
Drawn	4
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	13
Goals, away side	7

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 55.2% · Draw 24.9% · Away 19.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Göztepe v Rizespor

super-lig · 17:00 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	18	4
Position last season	6	8
Points this season	2	9
Goal difference this season	-4	+1
Elo rating going in	1,609	1,606
Matches on record, all seasons	255	395
Recent form
Points, last 5	2	9
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	2.6	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.9	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	4
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	1	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	8	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	1.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.4	1.4
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.8	16.2
Shots on target, last 5	5.0	5.2
Shots per possession	0.437	0.276
On-target shots per possession	0.139	0.086
Inside-box shots per possession	0.334	0.158
Share of shots from inside the box	75.5%	58.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.97	1.42
Possession, last 5	39.8%	55.2%
Corners, last 5	5.6	5.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.277	0.300
On-target allowed per possession	0.079	0.098
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.196	0.178
Opponents' inside-box share	70.5%	60.6%
Save rate	63.3%	67.7%
Saves, last 5	2.6	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.16	1.02
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	68.2%	85.6%
Passes, last 5	278	454
Fouls, last 5	13.6	11.8
Cards, last 5	2.6	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	12
Home side won	6
Drawn	1
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	22
Goals, away side	21

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 40.5% · Draw 28.6% · Away 31.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Santa Clara v SC Braga

primeira-liga · 17:00 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	6
Position last season	12	4
Points this season	14	10
Goal difference this season	+7	+2
Elo rating going in	1,604	1,734
Matches on record, all seasons	244	533
Recent form
Points, last 5	13	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	0.4	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	0.8	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	4	3
Failed to score, last 10	1	0
Wins in a row	2	1
Unbeaten run	6	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.6	13.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	5.0
Shots per possession	0.300	0.173
On-target shots per possession	0.074	0.063
Inside-box shots per possession	0.192	0.099
Share of shots from inside the box	64.4%	53.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.34	0.89
Possession, last 5	43.2%	61.4%
Corners, last 5	3.4	3.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.157	0.258
On-target allowed per possession	0.056	0.085
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.086	0.144
Opponents' inside-box share	52.9%	52.8%
Save rate	73.4%	65.4%
Saves, last 5	2.0	1.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.72	0.22
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	74.7%	82.5%
Passes, last 5	347	606
Fouls, last 5	12.8	13.8
Cards, last 5	2.2	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	14
Home side won	3
Drawn	4
Away side won	7
Goals, home side	14
Goals, away side	24

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 25.1% · Draw 30.1% · Away 44.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

SC Paderborn 07 v 1899 Hoffenheim

bundesliga · 17:30 UK

Finished 3–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	15	11
Position last season	—	5
Points this season	1	3
Goal difference this season	-4	-1
Elo rating going in	1,405	1,596
Matches on record, all seasons	73	547
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	6
Goals scored, last 5	0.4	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	0.7	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.8	2.0
Clean sheets, last 10	2	1
Failed to score, last 10	5	1
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	8	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	0.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.0	15.8
Shots on target, last 5	2.8	5.0
Shots per possession	0.287	0.290
On-target shots per possession	0.066	0.099
Inside-box shots per possession	0.158	0.173
Share of shots from inside the box	57.1%	59.9%
Expected goals, last 5	0.76	1.63
Possession, last 5	51.2%	58.0%
Corners, last 5	6.0	7.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.304	0.302
On-target allowed per possession	0.119	0.115
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.203	0.225
Opponents' inside-box share	68.2%	76.5%
Save rate	71.7%	59.8%
Saves, last 5	4.4	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.24	1.33
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.3%	86.0%
Passes, last 5	492	508
Fouls, last 5	12.2	12.2
Cards, last 5	2.8	3.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	0
Drawn	2
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	1
Goals, away side	5

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 21.3% · Draw 21.6% · Away 57.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

AC Milan v Lecce

serie-a · 18:45 UK

Finished 3–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	10
Position last season	5	17
Points this season	8	6
Goal difference this season	+3	-2
Elo rating going in	1,731	1,535
Matches on record, all seasons	612	270
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	9
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	3	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	4
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	4	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.0	9.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	3.6
Shots per possession	0.224	0.254
On-target shots per possession	0.076	0.103
Inside-box shots per possession	0.147	0.172
Share of shots from inside the box	60.1%	67.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.64	1.19
Possession, last 5	56.4%	38.8%
Corners, last 5	3.4	3.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.249	0.238
On-target allowed per possession	0.090	0.106
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.163	0.168
Opponents' inside-box share	66.6%	71.8%
Save rate	72.1%	74.9%
Saves, last 5	3.8	5.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.67	2.11
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	88.5%	75.6%
Passes, last 5	525	342
Fouls, last 5	10.0	11.8
Cards, last 5	2.0	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	14
Home side won	10
Drawn	4
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	35
Goals, away side	13

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 76.0% · Draw 15.9% · Away 8.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Marseille v Paris Saint Germain

ligue-1 · 18:45 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	11	7
Position last season	5	1
Points this season	3	5
Goal difference this season	+0	+0
Elo rating going in	1,636	1,795
Matches on record, all seasons	590	589
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	2	5
Failed to score, last 10	4	0
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	3	0
Days since last match	9	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	0.2	1.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	1.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.2	16.8
Shots on target, last 5	6.4	5.6
Shots per possession	0.290	0.255
On-target shots per possession	0.108	0.088
Inside-box shots per possession	0.196	0.140
Share of shots from inside the box	66.3%	57.6%
Expected goals, last 5	2.01	1.27
Possession, last 5	57.6%	66.4%
Corners, last 5	4.8	5.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.296	0.308
On-target allowed per possession	0.101	0.123
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.202	0.197
Opponents' inside-box share	67.8%	62.1%
Save rate	66.2%	70.4%
Saves, last 5	3.8	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.39	1.45
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	88.0%	90.3%
Passes, last 5	580	727
Fouls, last 5	10.0	7.6
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	31
Home side won	4
Drawn	4
Away side won	23
Goals, home side	22
Goals, away side	66

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 12.9% · Draw 17.4% · Away 69.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Leganes v Granada CF

laliga-2 · 19:00 UK

Finished 3–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	11	8
Position last season	16	14
Points this season	8	8
Goal difference this season	+0	+1
Elo rating going in	1,447	1,441
Matches on record, all seasons	407	595
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	8
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	0.6	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	0.6	0.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	5	3
Failed to score, last 10	4	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	7	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	0.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	8.2	14.0
Shots on target, last 5	3.0	4.0
Shots per possession	0.206	0.231
On-target shots per possession	0.074	0.070
Inside-box shots per possession	0.128	0.121
Share of shots from inside the box	61.7%	52.8%
Expected goals, last 5	—	—
Possession, last 5	44.4%	47.6%
Corners, last 5	2.0	4.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.267	0.250
On-target allowed per possession	0.079	0.091
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.159	0.136
Opponents' inside-box share	60.7%	53.6%
Save rate	72.1%	69.5%
Saves, last 5	3.4	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	—	—
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	74.3%	75.3%
Passes, last 5	397	360
Fouls, last 5	14.2	13.2
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	5
Drawn	1
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	6
Goals, away side	3

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 46.0% · Draw 30.2% · Away 23.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Valencia v Real Sociedad

la-liga · 19:00 UK

Finished 2–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	17	12
Position last season	9	10
Points this season	4	7
Goal difference this season	-8	-5
Elo rating going in	1,602	1,598
Matches on record, all seasons	614	614
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	7
Goals scored, last 5	0.4	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.9
Clean sheets, last 10	3	1
Failed to score, last 10	4	3
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	5	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	8.8	12.8
Shots on target, last 5	2.4	5.4
Shots per possession	0.259	0.217
On-target shots per possession	0.083	0.089
Inside-box shots per possession	0.158	0.135
Share of shots from inside the box	59.4%	62.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.24	1.11
Possession, last 5	46.8%	49.4%
Corners, last 5	4.6	8.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.227	0.327
On-target allowed per possession	0.073	0.128
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.148	0.199
Opponents' inside-box share	65.5%	60.0%
Save rate	70.0%	70.3%
Saves, last 5	3.2	4.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.06	1.95
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	82.0%	86.0%
Passes, last 5	419	475
Fouls, last 5	9.6	12.6
Cards, last 5	2.0	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	10
Drawn	8
Away side won	14
Goals, home side	35
Goals, away side	44

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 34.7% · Draw 28.3% · Away 37.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

FC Porto v Benfica

primeira-liga · 19:30 UK

Finished 3–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	2
Position last season	1	3
Points this season	18	16
Goal difference this season	+13	+17
Elo rating going in	1,895	1,899
Matches on record, all seasons	534	534
Recent form
Points, last 5	15	15
Goals scored, last 5	2.6	3.8
Goals conceded, last 5	0.4	0.4
Goals scored, last 10	2.0	3.2
Goals conceded, last 10	0.6	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	6	3
Failed to score, last 10	0	0
Wins in a row	7	5
Unbeaten run	7	55
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	2.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.4	18.8
Shots on target, last 5	6.6	7.2
Shots per possession	0.258	0.319
On-target shots per possession	0.096	0.124
Inside-box shots per possession	0.176	0.240
Share of shots from inside the box	68.9%	76.1%
Expected goals, last 5	2.15	2.54
Possession, last 5	56.0%	65.6%
Corners, last 5	7.6	7.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.246	0.188
On-target allowed per possession	0.071	0.063
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.128	0.136
Opponents' inside-box share	52.3%	72.6%
Save rate	72.2%	65.3%
Saves, last 5	1.6	0.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.64	0.24
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.3%	89.5%
Passes, last 5	452	602
Fouls, last 5	13.2	12.4
Cards, last 5	0.6	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	14
Drawn	10
Away side won	8
Goals, home side	47
Goals, away side	37

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 34.3% · Draw 28.2% · Away 37.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.