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The data behind the ratings

Saturday 26 September 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

AD Ceuta FC v Real Sociedad II

laliga-2 · 12:00 UK
Finished 3–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position229
Position last season915
Points this season18
Goal difference this season-13+1
Elo rating going in1,4311,404
Matches on record, all seasons4890
Recent form
Points, last 518
Goals scored, last 50.41.6
Goals conceded, last 52.21.2
Goals scored, last 100.81.4
Goals conceded, last 102.11.4
Clean sheets, last 1020
Failed to score, last 1032
Wins in a row00
Unbeaten run10
Losses in a row01
Days since last match67
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there0.60.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there1.81.2
Scored away, last 5 there——
Conceded away, last 5 there——
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 513.012.0
Shots on target, last 53.23.8
Shots per possession0.2110.294
On-target shots per possession0.0640.096
Inside-box shots per possession0.1340.185
Share of shots from inside the box62.4%64.0%
Expected goals, last 5——
Possession, last 549.2%40.8%
Corners, last 55.43.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.2540.238
On-target allowed per possession0.0960.079
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1810.155
Opponents' inside-box share69.8%63.7%
Save rate61.0%67.7%
Saves, last 52.03.5
Expected goals conceded, last 5——
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy86.0%73.0%
Passes, last 5400347
Fouls, last 516.216.4
Cards, last 52.42.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record2
Home side won1
Drawn1
Away side won0
Goals, home side3
Goals, away side1
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 37.7% · Draw 26.9% · Away 35.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Cambridge United v AFC Wimbledon

league-one · 14:00 UK
Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position55
Position last season—19
Points this season1211
Goal difference this season+2-2
Elo rating going in1,3371,324
Matches on record, all seasons191318
Recent form
Points, last 5810
Goals scored, last 51.61.0
Goals conceded, last 51.40.8
Goals scored, last 101.50.7
Goals conceded, last 101.61.4
Clean sheets, last 1006
Failed to score, last 1004
Wins in a row00
Unbeaten run43
Losses in a row00
Days since last match79
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—0.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there—0.8
Scored away, last 5 there1.4—
Conceded away, last 5 there1.4—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 511.812.6
Shots on target, last 53.53.0
Shots per possession0.2760.210
On-target shots per possession0.1060.058
Inside-box shots per possession0.2120.137
Share of shots from inside the box75.5%64.8%
Expected goals, last 50.950.70
Possession, last 543.0%48.8%
Corners, last 56.55.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.1950.280
On-target allowed per possession0.0770.095
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1120.204
Opponents' inside-box share58.1%74.0%
Save rate64.2%74.5%
Saves, last 52.24.0
Expected goals conceded, last 51.132.79
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy69.0%68.0%
Passes, last 5322321
Fouls, last 513.513.2
Cards, last 52.21.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record2
Home side won2
Drawn0
Away side won0
Goals, home side2
Goals, away side0
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 52.2% · Draw 26.2% · Away 21.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Plymouth v Burton Albion

league-one · 14:00 UK
Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position310
Position last season817
Points this season139
Goal difference this season+4+0
Elo rating going in1,4851,365
Matches on record, all seasons375502
Recent form
Points, last 5125
Goals scored, last 52.41.8
Goals conceded, last 51.22.0
Goals scored, last 102.01.6
Goals conceded, last 101.41.6
Clean sheets, last 1020
Failed to score, last 1011
Wins in a row30
Unbeaten run31
Losses in a row00
Days since last match77
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there—1.4
Scored away, last 5 there2.2—
Conceded away, last 5 there1.8—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 515.58.8
Shots on target, last 56.22.8
Shots per possession0.3930.278
On-target shots per possession0.1350.105
Inside-box shots per possession0.2410.162
Share of shots from inside the box60.4%56.7%
Expected goals, last 51.160.11
Possession, last 542.8%43.4%
Corners, last 55.83.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.1970.228
On-target allowed per possession0.0510.070
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1290.160
Opponents' inside-box share66.7%69.2%
Save rate60.6%58.4%
Saves, last 50.82.6
Expected goals conceded, last 50.902.29
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy61.0%70.0%
Passes, last 5282350
Fouls, last 511.214.0
Cards, last 50.61.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record10
Home side won5
Drawn4
Away side won1
Goals, home side18
Goals, away side8
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 62.3% · Draw 21.3% · Away 16.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Stockport County v Peterborough

league-one · 14:00 UK
Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position923
Position last season318
Points this season105
Goal difference this season+6-8
Elo rating going in1,4741,317
Matches on record, all seasons104692
Recent form
Points, last 572
Goals scored, last 52.40.4
Goals conceded, last 51.41.8
Goals scored, last 102.00.6
Goals conceded, last 101.41.8
Clean sheets, last 1042
Failed to score, last 1025
Wins in a row00
Unbeaten run10
Losses in a row01
Days since last match77
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—0.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there—1.6
Scored away, last 5 there1.6—
Conceded away, last 5 there1.4—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 516.016.5
Shots on target, last 54.83.0
Shots per possession0.2570.257
On-target shots per possession0.0830.073
Inside-box shots per possession0.1980.167
Share of shots from inside the box76.1%66.4%
Expected goals, last 51.341.72
Possession, last 555.6%60.8%
Corners, last 56.46.5
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.2240.360
On-target allowed per possession0.0950.148
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1530.280
Opponents' inside-box share69.4%76.5%
Save rate67.3%67.6%
Saves, last 52.23.2
Expected goals conceded, last 50.942.73
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy88.0%85.0%
Passes, last 5559487
Fouls, last 59.09.2
Cards, last 51.00.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record4
Home side won2
Drawn1
Away side won1
Goals, home side6
Goals, away side6
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 71.9% · Draw 16.5% · Away 11.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Wycombe v Reading

league-one · 14:00 UK
Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position148
Position last season1112
Points this season910
Goal difference this season-3+7
Elo rating going in1,4191,415
Matches on record, all seasons417691
Recent form
Points, last 5710
Goals scored, last 51.82.2
Goals conceded, last 52.40.6
Goals scored, last 101.71.6
Goals conceded, last 102.11.3
Clean sheets, last 1013
Failed to score, last 1013
Wins in a row21
Unbeaten run31
Losses in a row00
Days since last match77
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—2.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there—1.2
Scored away, last 5 there1.8—
Conceded away, last 5 there2.4—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 510.217.4
Shots on target, last 55.05.4
Shots per possession0.2670.303
On-target shots per possession0.1120.093
Inside-box shots per possession0.1910.223
Share of shots from inside the box70.9%77.6%
Expected goals, last 50.940.90
Possession, last 544.8%50.8%
Corners, last 56.05.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.2550.221
On-target allowed per possession0.0910.089
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1320.128
Opponents' inside-box share51.3%61.6%
Save rate59.0%70.1%
Saves, last 52.52.2
Expected goals conceded, last 51.340.34
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy78.0%80.0%
Passes, last 5368394
Fouls, last 59.211.6
Cards, last 50.81.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record8
Home side won2
Drawn2
Away side won4
Goals, home side9
Goals, away side11
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 36.4% · Draw 26.4% · Away 37.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Granada CF v FC Andorra

laliga-2 · 14:15 UK
Finished 2–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position1420
Position last season1413
Points this season83
Goal difference this season+0-4
Elo rating going in1,4331,401
Matches on record, all seasons596132
Recent form
Points, last 570
Goals scored, last 51.60.8
Goals conceded, last 51.62.4
Goals scored, last 101.01.5
Goals conceded, last 101.51.9
Clean sheets, last 1020
Failed to score, last 1044
Wins in a row00
Unbeaten run00
Losses in a row15
Days since last match67
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there—2.0
Scored away, last 5 there1.2—
Conceded away, last 5 there2.0—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 516.218.8
Shots on target, last 54.85.0
Shots per possession0.2480.264
On-target shots per possession0.0750.083
Inside-box shots per possession0.1410.154
Share of shots from inside the box56.4%57.4%
Expected goals, last 5——
Possession, last 551.4%68.4%
Corners, last 54.66.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.2840.263
On-target allowed per possession0.1150.112
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1530.168
Opponents' inside-box share52.1%62.9%
Save rate69.5%59.8%
Saves, last 54.61.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5——
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy75.5%86.5%
Passes, last 5390569
Fouls, last 513.215.4
Cards, last 52.02.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record4
Home side won1
Drawn2
Away side won1
Goals, home side3
Goals, away side2

Celta de Vigo II v Sabadell

laliga-2 · 16:30 UK
Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position154
Position last season——
Points this season711
Goal difference this season-3+2
Elo rating going in1,4501,456
Matches on record, all seasons648
Recent form
Points, last 5610
Goals scored, last 51.41.4
Goals conceded, last 52.01.0
Goals scored, last 10—1.1
Goals conceded, last 10—0.9
Clean sheets, last 1025
Failed to score, last 1035
Wins in a row01
Unbeaten run01
Losses in a row20
Days since last match66
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there—1.0
Scored away, last 5 there0.7—
Conceded away, last 5 there0.7—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 514.615.8
Shots on target, last 55.05.2
Shots per possession0.2890.297
On-target shots per possession0.1040.095
Inside-box shots per possession0.1720.188
Share of shots from inside the box61.5%62.1%
Expected goals, last 5——
Possession, last 549.4%45.2%
Corners, last 54.24.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.3060.192
On-target allowed per possession0.1220.065
Inside-box allowed per possession0.2060.094
Opponents' inside-box share68.4%51.4%
Save rate66.7%71.9%
Saves, last 53.82.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5——
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy75.5%61.5%
Passes, last 5456322
Fouls, last 511.417.0
Cards, last 52.83.0
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 29.5% · Draw 28.6% · Away 41.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Tenerife v Cadiz

laliga-2 · 16:30 UK
Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position619
Position last season—18
Points this season103
Goal difference this season-1-3
Elo rating going in1,4071,356
Matches on record, all seasons392412
Recent form
Points, last 572
Goals scored, last 50.81.2
Goals conceded, last 51.41.8
Goals scored, last 100.71.1
Goals conceded, last 101.21.5
Clean sheets, last 1032
Failed to score, last 1063
Wins in a row00
Unbeaten run00
Losses in a row13
Days since last match77
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there—0.8
Scored away, last 5 there0.8—
Conceded away, last 5 there2.0—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 510.87.4
Shots on target, last 53.02.0
Shots per possession0.2220.168
On-target shots per possession0.0630.050
Inside-box shots per possession0.1290.099
Share of shots from inside the box56.9%63.6%
Expected goals, last 5——
Possession, last 542.4%49.8%
Corners, last 54.23.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.1650.293
On-target allowed per possession0.0500.107
Inside-box allowed per possession0.0980.204
Opponents' inside-box share55.0%67.4%
Save rate60.2%72.4%
Saves, last 50.84.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5——
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy77.5%85.0%
Passes, last 5366400
Fouls, last 512.411.8
Cards, last 52.23.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record12
Home side won5
Drawn5
Away side won2
Goals, home side13
Goals, away side10
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 50.7% · Draw 29.0% · Away 20.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.