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The data behind the ratings

Saturday 3 October 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

Albacete v Eibar

laliga-2 · 12:00 UK

Finished 1–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	21	1
Position last season	11	8
Points this season	1	18
Goal difference this season	-8	+9
Elo rating going in	1,424	1,545
Matches on record, all seasons	347	489
Recent form
Points, last 5	1	15
Goals scored, last 5	0.4	2.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	0.6
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	1.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	0	5
Failed to score, last 10	4	0
Wins in a row	0	6
Unbeaten run	0	6
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	8	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	0.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.8	10.6
Shots on target, last 5	3.4	5.2
Shots per possession	0.313	0.274
On-target shots per possession	0.103	0.101
Inside-box shots per possession	0.214	0.161
Share of shots from inside the box	66.5%	56.7%
Expected goals, last 5	—	—
Possession, last 5	46.8%	35.2%
Corners, last 5	5.0	2.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.265	0.287
On-target allowed per possession	0.093	0.094
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.171	0.137
Opponents' inside-box share	63.6%	49.9%
Save rate	70.0%	77.6%
Saves, last 5	3.0	5.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	—	—
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	82.0%	62.0%
Passes, last 5	387	325
Fouls, last 5	12.4	10.2
Cards, last 5	2.0	2.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	2
Drawn	3
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	10
Goals, away side	12

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 33.0% · Draw 28.1% · Away 38.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Burton Albion v Huddersfield

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	7	4
Position last season	17	9
Points this season	12	12
Goal difference this season	+1	+5
Elo rating going in	1,380	1,423
Matches on record, all seasons	503	689
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	8
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	1.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	1	3
Failed to score, last 10	1	1
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	7	14
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	1.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	0.8
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.4	15.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.2	5.2
Shots per possession	0.266	0.272
On-target shots per possession	0.102	0.092
Inside-box shots per possession	0.153	0.194
Share of shots from inside the box	56.9%	69.2%
Expected goals, last 5	—	1.13
Possession, last 5	44.0%	60.5%
Corners, last 5	3.8	6.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.225	0.235
On-target allowed per possession	0.070	0.068
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.167	0.139
Opponents' inside-box share	72.7%	57.4%
Save rate	60.1%	58.4%
Saves, last 5	2.0	1.5
Expected goals conceded, last 5	—	0.95
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	74.0%
Passes, last 5	355	450
Fouls, last 5	10.4	12.2
Cards, last 5	1.4	0.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	3
Drawn	2
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	8
Goals, away side	3

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 25.7% · Draw 24.7% · Away 49.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Leyton Orient v Plymouth

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 0–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	10	4
Position last season	20	8
Points this season	10	13
Goal difference this season	+4	+3
Elo rating going in	1,371	1,470
Matches on record, all seasons	335	376
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	9
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	14	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.4	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	2.0	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	8.8	15.2
Shots on target, last 5	2.8	6.2
Shots per possession	0.193	0.384
On-target shots per possession	0.051	0.131
Inside-box shots per possession	0.124	0.241
Share of shots from inside the box	63.1%	63.0%
Expected goals, last 5	0.73	—
Possession, last 5	49.0%	46.5%
Corners, last 5	3.8	4.5
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.327	0.200
On-target allowed per possession	0.126	0.054
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.215	0.134
Opponents' inside-box share	65.6%	68.0%
Save rate	73.1%	62.9%
Saves, last 5	4.2	1.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.99	—
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	62.0%	—
Passes, last 5	356	330
Fouls, last 5	10.5	10.5
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	1
Drawn	0
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	2
Goals, away side	3

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 26.4% · Draw 25.3% · Away 48.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Reading v Bradford

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	9	1
Position last season	12	4
Points this season	11	15
Goal difference this season	+7	+3
Elo rating going in	1,417	1,430
Matches on record, all seasons	692	336
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	9
Goals scored, last 5	2.6	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.8	0.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	0.7
Clean sheets, last 10	3	5
Failed to score, last 10	2	3
Wins in a row	0	3
Unbeaten run	2	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	14
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	0.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	0.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	19.2	6.5
Shots on target, last 5	6.2	3.2
Shots per possession	0.340	0.162
On-target shots per possession	0.108	0.062
Inside-box shots per possession	0.236	0.108
Share of shots from inside the box	73.7%	69.2%
Expected goals, last 5	—	0.90
Possession, last 5	47.2%	47.2%
Corners, last 5	5.0	4.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.232	0.212
On-target allowed per possession	0.083	0.043
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.127	0.124
Opponents' inside-box share	58.2%	59.0%
Save rate	69.6%	67.6%
Saves, last 5	2.6	1.5
Expected goals conceded, last 5	—	1.16
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	69.0%
Passes, last 5	365	346
Fouls, last 5	12.4	16.8
Cards, last 5	1.4	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	1
Drawn	0
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	2
Goals, away side	3

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 44.7% · Draw 27.6% · Away 27.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Almeria v Burgos

laliga-2 · 14:15 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	4
Position last season	3	7
Points this season	15	14
Goal difference this season	+7	+4
Elo rating going in	1,539	1,539
Matches on record, all seasons	543	217
Recent form
Points, last 5	12	11
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	0.6	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	0.8	0.7
Clean sheets, last 10	5	5
Failed to score, last 10	3	2
Wins in a row	4	3
Unbeaten run	4	5
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	6	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.4	10.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	2.6
Shots per possession	0.228	0.232
On-target shots per possession	0.075	0.077
Inside-box shots per possession	0.156	0.162
Share of shots from inside the box	65.7%	67.4%
Expected goals, last 5	—	—
Possession, last 5	50.2%	49.2%
Corners, last 5	2.0	3.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.260	0.261
On-target allowed per possession	0.068	0.071
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.171	0.152
Opponents' inside-box share	68.6%	55.2%
Save rate	75.3%	75.3%
Saves, last 5	2.6	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	—	—
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	76.0%	81.0%
Passes, last 5	426	419
Fouls, last 5	14.2	19.2
Cards, last 5	2.4	2.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	3
Drawn	1
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	8
Goals, away side	5

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 60.2% · Draw 23.6% · Away 16.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Cadiz v Leganes

laliga-2 · 16:30 UK

Finished 4–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	20	9
Position last season	18	16
Points this season	4	11
Goal difference this season	-3	-1
Elo rating going in	1,360	1,446
Matches on record, all seasons	413	409
Recent form
Points, last 5	2	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	0.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	2	5
Failed to score, last 10	2	5
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	7	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.8	13.4
Shots on target, last 5	2.6	4.8
Shots per possession	0.173	0.240
On-target shots per possession	0.053	0.086
Inside-box shots per possession	0.101	0.134
Share of shots from inside the box	63.0%	55.9%
Expected goals, last 5	—	—
Possession, last 5	51.4%	49.4%
Corners, last 5	3.8	3.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.283	0.280
On-target allowed per possession	0.100	0.079
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.194	0.173
Opponents' inside-box share	67.0%	62.3%
Save rate	71.8%	74.5%
Saves, last 5	4.2	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	—	—
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	83.0%	86.0%
Passes, last 5	461	432
Fouls, last 5	12.2	15.4
Cards, last 5	3.6	2.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	1
Drawn	1
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	4
Goals, away side	1

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 32.0% · Draw 31.2% · Away 36.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Sabadell v FC Andorra

A rating was published for this fixture but its stored feature row could not be found, so the inputs cannot be shown. That is worth investigating, not ignoring.