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The data behind the ratings

Friday 9 October 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

Galatasaray v Kasımpaşa

super-lig · 17:00 UK

Finished 3–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	4
Position last season	1	13
Points this season	13	10
Goal difference this season	+3	+2
Elo rating going in	1,883	1,610
Matches on record, all seasons	540	500
Recent form
Points, last 5	12	9
Goals scored, last 5	2.2	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	2.1	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	3	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	7
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	20	21
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	19.8	12.2
Shots on target, last 5	6.6	3.2
Shots per possession	0.338	0.247
On-target shots per possession	0.116	0.081
Inside-box shots per possession	0.228	0.132
Share of shots from inside the box	67.6%	53.6%
Expected goals, last 5	2.19	0.92
Possession, last 5	57.2%	41.8%
Corners, last 5	6.8	4.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.230	0.217
On-target allowed per possession	0.081	0.075
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.151	0.140
Opponents' inside-box share	66.4%	64.1%
Save rate	57.9%	69.8%
Saves, last 5	1.8	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.11	0.99
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	85.8%	77.5%
Passes, last 5	469	357
Fouls, last 5	12.6	14.4
Cards, last 5	1.8	3.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	28
Home side won	16
Drawn	5
Away side won	7
Goals, home side	57
Goals, away side	42

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 76.0% · Draw 15.1% · Away 8.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Moreirense v GIL Vicente

primeira-liga · 17:45 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	12	8
Position last season	7	6
Points this season	8	8
Goal difference this season	-6	+0
Elo rating going in	1,569	1,572
Matches on record, all seasons	413	368
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	0.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.8	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	2	4
Failed to score, last 10	4	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	2	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	19	20
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	7.8	14.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.2	3.6
Shots per possession	0.207	0.250
On-target shots per possession	0.073	0.064
Inside-box shots per possession	0.118	0.150
Share of shots from inside the box	55.9%	59.1%
Expected goals, last 5	0.28	1.01
Possession, last 5	33.2%	51.4%
Corners, last 5	1.6	3.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.256	0.230
On-target allowed per possession	0.076	0.058
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.174	0.144
Opponents' inside-box share	68.2%	57.5%
Save rate	57.3%	64.7%
Saves, last 5	3.4	1.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.77	0.49
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	60.0%	85.5%
Passes, last 5	288	461
Fouls, last 5	14.8	13.6
Cards, last 5	2.2	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	16
Home side won	8
Drawn	4
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	27
Goals, away side	18

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 28.4% · Draw 30.2% · Away 41.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

PSV Eindhoven v Heerenveen

eredivisie · 18:00 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	9
Position last season	1	8
Points this season	16	9
Goal difference this season	+14	+2
Elo rating going in	1,849	1,569
Matches on record, all seasons	543	561
Recent form
Points, last 5	12	5
Goals scored, last 5	4.0	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	3.5	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	0	4
Failed to score, last 10	0	4
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	2
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	19	20
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	3.4	2.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	1.8
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	21.2	17.4
Shots on target, last 5	9.0	5.8
Shots per possession	0.308	0.274
On-target shots per possession	0.127	0.101
Inside-box shots per possession	0.220	0.169
Share of shots from inside the box	72.3%	62.3%
Expected goals, last 5	3.73	1.06
Possession, last 5	62.2%	56.8%
Corners, last 5	7.4	5.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.288	0.356
On-target allowed per possession	0.123	0.092
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.193	0.218
Opponents' inside-box share	70.2%	60.3%
Save rate	65.1%	70.4%
Saves, last 5	2.6	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.70	1.27
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	91.0%	87.5%
Passes, last 5	576	462
Fouls, last 5	9.8	8.2
Cards, last 5	2.2	0.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	31
Home side won	15
Drawn	11
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	71
Goals, away side	39

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 77.4% · Draw 12.2% · Away 10.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen

bundesliga · 18:30 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	6
Position last season	2	15
Points this season	12	7
Goal difference this season	+7	+0
Elo rating going in	1,754	1,526
Matches on record, all seasons	548	516
Recent form
Points, last 5	15	7
Goals scored, last 5	2.2	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	0.4	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.9	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	0.8	1.9
Clean sheets, last 10	5	0
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	6	1
Unbeaten run	6	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	20	20
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.0	12.8
Shots on target, last 5	5.8	5.8
Shots per possession	0.255	0.275
On-target shots per possession	0.090	0.109
Inside-box shots per possession	0.190	0.167
Share of shots from inside the box	75.1%	60.4%
Expected goals, last 5	2.08	0.48
Possession, last 5	49.0%	47.8%
Corners, last 5	4.0	3.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.221	0.309
On-target allowed per possession	0.076	0.111
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.132	0.197
Opponents' inside-box share	59.1%	63.4%
Save rate	74.9%	66.2%
Saves, last 5	3.0	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.59	2.34
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	86.5%	85.5%
Passes, last 5	468	489
Fouls, last 5	10.0	11.8
Cards, last 5	2.2	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	30
Home side won	21
Drawn	5
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	64
Goals, away side	31

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 72.8% · Draw 16.4% · Away 10.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Lens v Lyon

ligue-1 · 18:45 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	10	2
Position last season	2	4
Points this season	4	11
Goal difference this season	+0	+8
Elo rating going in	1,660	1,676
Matches on record, all seasons	297	591
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	11
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	0.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.8	2.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	5
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	21	20
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.8	12.4
Shots on target, last 5	6.4	4.6
Shots per possession	0.334	0.254
On-target shots per possession	0.125	0.107
Inside-box shots per possession	0.232	0.179
Share of shots from inside the box	68.8%	70.4%
Expected goals, last 5	3.67	0.93
Possession, last 5	50.6%	52.4%
Corners, last 5	7.0	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.236	0.253
On-target allowed per possession	0.083	0.083
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.162	0.163
Opponents' inside-box share	69.2%	61.4%
Save rate	66.1%	67.8%
Saves, last 5	3.4	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.73	1.65
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	86.5%	86.5%
Passes, last 5	485	441
Fouls, last 5	11.4	10.8
Cards, last 5	2.2	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	16
Home side won	6
Drawn	3
Away side won	7
Goals, home side	21
Goals, away side	21

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 41.0% · Draw 25.9% · Away 33.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Malaga v Espanyol

la-liga · 19:00 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	20	9
Position last season	4	11
Points this season	3	7
Goal difference this season	-9	+0
Elo rating going in	1,525	1,552
Matches on record, all seasons	611	627
Recent form
Points, last 5	2	4
Goals scored, last 5	0.4	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	0.6	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	5	0
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	2	2
Days since last match	19	21
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.4	14.2
Shots on target, last 5	2.2	3.6
Shots per possession	0.211	0.254
On-target shots per possession	0.054	0.086
Inside-box shots per possession	0.124	0.142
Share of shots from inside the box	61.4%	54.7%
Expected goals, last 5	0.72	0.76
Possession, last 5	50.4%	51.2%
Corners, last 5	6.0	3.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.282	0.222
On-target allowed per possession	0.101	0.093
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.160	0.152
Opponents' inside-box share	56.3%	66.1%
Save rate	69.5%	67.7%
Saves, last 5	4.0	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.34	1.66
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	88.0%	79.0%
Passes, last 5	473	393
Fouls, last 5	13.4	16.8
Cards, last 5	2.8	2.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	18
Home side won	3
Drawn	5
Away side won	10
Goals, home side	13
Goals, away side	28

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 34.2% · Draw 30.7% · Away 35.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

West Ham v QPR

championship · 19:00 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	6
Position last season	18	15
Points this season	15	13
Goal difference this season	+11	+3
Elo rating going in	1,668	1,493
Matches on record, all seasons	627	677
Recent form
Points, last 5	13	6
Goals scored, last 5	3.6	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	2.6	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	0	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	6	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	20	20
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.2	17.0
Shots on target, last 5	7.2	4.2
Shots per possession	0.293	0.322
On-target shots per possession	0.122	0.117
Inside-box shots per possession	0.218	0.198
Share of shots from inside the box	73.7%	63.9%
Expected goals, last 5	—	—
Possession, last 5	55.2%	55.2%
Corners, last 5	5.8	9.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.298	0.254
On-target allowed per possession	0.108	0.070
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.203	0.162
Opponents' inside-box share	65.3%	66.4%
Save rate	63.2%	64.8%
Saves, last 5	2.0	2.5
Expected goals conceded, last 5	—	—
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	468	493
Fouls, last 5	11.5	8.8
Cards, last 5	1.8	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	2
Drawn	2
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	5
Goals, away side	2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 63.9% · Draw 19.8% · Away 16.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

SC Braga v Sporting CP

primeira-liga · 19:15 UK

Finished 1–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	6	3
Position last season	4	2
Points this season	11	15
Goal difference this season	+2	+9
Elo rating going in	1,732	1,893
Matches on record, all seasons	534	535
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	11
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	2.4
Goals conceded, last 5	0.6	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	2.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	3	3
Failed to score, last 10	1	0
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	2	12
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	19	20
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.4	13.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	5.0
Shots per possession	0.177	0.214
On-target shots per possession	0.062	0.094
Inside-box shots per possession	0.106	0.146
Share of shots from inside the box	57.1%	64.8%
Expected goals, last 5	0.83	1.06
Possession, last 5	59.0%	63.8%
Corners, last 5	4.4	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.256	0.217
On-target allowed per possession	0.084	0.064
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.148	0.114
Opponents' inside-box share	55.0%	46.7%
Save rate	65.4%	73.2%
Saves, last 5	1.6	1.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.23	0.26
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.0%	90.5%
Passes, last 5	575	539
Fouls, last 5	12.4	10.0
Cards, last 5	2.0	2.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	6
Drawn	6
Away side won	20
Goals, home side	34
Goals, away side	65

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 28.6% · Draw 26.9% · Away 44.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.