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The data behind the ratings

Saturday 10 October 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

Gençlerbirliği S.K. v Amed

super-lig · 10:30 UK
Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position131
Position last season14—
Points this season713
Goal difference this season-8+8
Elo rating going in1,5241,659
Matches on record, all seasons3526
Recent form
Points, last 5410
Goals scored, last 50.62.4
Goals conceded, last 52.41.4
Goals scored, last 101.2—
Goals conceded, last 101.6—
Clean sheets, last 1032
Failed to score, last 1031
Wins in a row02
Unbeaten run04
Losses in a row30
Days since last match2120
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—3.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there—0.8
Scored away, last 5 there0.8—
Conceded away, last 5 there2.0—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 512.414.2
Shots on target, last 53.65.0
Shots per possession0.2680.318
On-target shots per possession0.0900.124
Inside-box shots per possession0.1550.174
Share of shots from inside the box58.4%53.0%
Expected goals, last 50.982.04
Possession, last 547.2%45.2%
Corners, last 55.24.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.2680.204
On-target allowed per possession0.1090.077
Inside-box allowed per possession0.2010.113
Opponents' inside-box share76.8%54.4%
Save rate71.4%68.2%
Saves, last 55.03.2
Expected goals conceded, last 51.741.15
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy79.2%79.5%
Passes, last 5378387
Fouls, last 513.215.4
Cards, last 52.04.0
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 28.3% · Draw 27.9% · Away 43.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Arsenal v Leeds

premier-league · 11:30 UK
Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position25
Position last season114
Points this season129
Goal difference this season+4+4
Elo rating going in1,9291,738
Matches on record, all seasons613668
Recent form
Points, last 5129
Goals scored, last 51.61.4
Goals conceded, last 50.80.6
Goals scored, last 101.61.4
Goals conceded, last 100.51.0
Clean sheets, last 1073
Failed to score, last 1012
Wins in a row00
Unbeaten run05
Losses in a row10
Days since last match2120
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there—0.6
Scored away, last 5 there1.2—
Conceded away, last 5 there0.8—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 513.012.4
Shots on target, last 54.83.6
Shots per possession0.2400.268
On-target shots per possession0.0890.083
Inside-box shots per possession0.1690.180
Share of shots from inside the box71.0%66.4%
Expected goals, last 51.430.97
Possession, last 559.8%45.4%
Corners, last 55.24.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.2320.273
On-target allowed per possession0.0570.095
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1270.184
Opponents' inside-box share52.6%64.5%
Save rate72.0%75.6%
Saves, last 51.84.0
Expected goals conceded, last 50.301.10
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy90.0%73.5%
Passes, last 5500361
Fouls, last 510.210.6
Cards, last 51.41.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record8
Home side won7
Drawn1
Away side won0
Goals, home side24
Goals, away side5
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 68.3% · Draw 19.5% · Away 12.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Charlton v Bristol City

championship · 11:30 UK
Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position96
Position last season2012
Points this season1213
Goal difference this season-3-1
Elo rating going in1,4831,522
Matches on record, all seasons706700
Recent form
Points, last 539
Goals scored, last 50.41.4
Goals conceded, last 51.61.4
Goals scored, last 101.01.4
Goals conceded, last 101.41.4
Clean sheets, last 1032
Failed to score, last 1032
Wins in a row01
Unbeaten run01
Losses in a row10
Days since last match2122
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there—0.8
Scored away, last 5 there1.0—
Conceded away, last 5 there2.4—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 59.517.8
Shots on target, last 52.25.2
Shots per possession0.2940.312
On-target shots per possession0.0960.095
Inside-box shots per possession0.1750.214
Share of shots from inside the box58.0%64.9%
Expected goals, last 5——
Possession, last 537.5%48.5%
Corners, last 54.07.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.2740.228
On-target allowed per possession0.0810.057
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1620.136
Opponents' inside-box share58.1%59.2%
Save rate71.2%64.5%
Saves, last 53.51.5
Expected goals conceded, last 5——
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy——
Passes, last 5306401
Fouls, last 511.511.2
Cards, last 51.41.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record8
Home side won3
Drawn2
Away side won3
Goals, home side12
Goals, away side9
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 29.8% · Draw 28.8% · Away 41.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Notts County v Oxford United

league-one · 11:30 UK
Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position206
Position last season—23
Points this season711
Goal difference this season-2+6
Elo rating going in1,3891,465
Matches on record, all seasons191463
Recent form
Points, last 5510
Goals scored, last 50.82.2
Goals conceded, last 51.21.0
Goals scored, last 101.11.7
Goals conceded, last 101.61.2
Clean sheets, last 1002
Failed to score, last 1023
Wins in a row00
Unbeaten run03
Losses in a row20
Days since last match2121
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there—1.0
Scored away, last 5 there1.0—
Conceded away, last 5 there1.8—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 512.511.2
Shots on target, last 53.55.2
Shots per possession0.2280.270
On-target shots per possession0.0740.090
Inside-box shots per possession0.1200.164
Share of shots from inside the box47.7%61.5%
Expected goals, last 52.291.24
Possession, last 549.5%55.8%
Corners, last 54.84.5
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.2170.272
On-target allowed per possession0.0820.071
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1570.194
Opponents' inside-box share68.6%69.8%
Save rate63.5%65.4%
Saves, last 52.81.8
Expected goals conceded, last 50.111.00
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy80.0%70.0%
Passes, last 5388401
Fouls, last 513.015.8
Cards, last 51.61.4
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 38.4% · Draw 27.1% · Away 34.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Plymouth v AFC Wimbledon

league-one · 11:30 UK
Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position18
Position last season819
Points this season1612
Goal difference this season+5-2
Elo rating going in1,4791,326
Matches on record, all seasons377319
Recent form
Points, last 5128
Goals scored, last 52.41.0
Goals conceded, last 51.01.0
Goals scored, last 101.90.7
Goals conceded, last 101.31.2
Clean sheets, last 1036
Failed to score, last 1024
Wins in a row10
Unbeaten run14
Losses in a row00
Days since last match714
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there——
Conceded at home, last 5 there——
Scored away, last 5 there2.01.0
Conceded away, last 5 there1.41.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 516.211.4
Shots on target, last 56.43.2
Shots per possession0.3680.201
On-target shots per possession0.1330.059
Inside-box shots per possession0.2430.139
Share of shots from inside the box65.4%68.3%
Expected goals, last 5——
Possession, last 545.8%47.6%
Corners, last 55.04.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.1990.258
On-target allowed per possession0.0540.079
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1400.184
Opponents' inside-box share71.3%72.9%
Save rate64.4%75.7%
Saves, last 51.83.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5——
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy——
Passes, last 5327317
Fouls, last 511.612.6
Cards, last 51.41.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record10
Home side won7
Drawn1
Away side won2
Goals, home side19
Goals, away side11
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 65.0% · Draw 20.1% · Away 14.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Swansea v Norwich

championship · 11:30 UK
Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position117
Position last season119
Points this season179
Goal difference this season+7-1
Elo rating going in1,5691,519
Matches on record, all seasons647655
Recent form
Points, last 5106
Goals scored, last 51.62.2
Goals conceded, last 51.02.2
Goals scored, last 101.71.8
Goals conceded, last 100.82.0
Clean sheets, last 1040
Failed to score, last 1022
Wins in a row20
Unbeaten run20
Losses in a row02
Days since last match2120
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—2.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there—1.8
Scored away, last 5 there1.8—
Conceded away, last 5 there1.2—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 59.814.2
Shots on target, last 53.85.8
Shots per possession0.2110.296
On-target shots per possession0.0820.107
Inside-box shots per possession0.1210.192
Share of shots from inside the box57.2%64.4%
Expected goals, last 5——
Possession, last 552.0%53.0%
Corners, last 53.04.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.2880.251
On-target allowed per possession0.0760.098
Inside-box allowed per possession0.2100.190
Opponents' inside-box share73.7%75.0%
Save rate73.4%56.9%
Saves, last 52.52.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5——
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy——
Passes, last 5570420
Fouls, last 59.511.2
Cards, last 51.42.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record20
Home side won7
Drawn4
Away side won9
Goals, home side28
Goals, away side31
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 43.1% · Draw 27.1% · Away 29.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

West Brom v Birmingham

championship · 11:30 UK
Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position611
Position last season1910
Points this season1411
Goal difference this season+2+1
Elo rating going in1,5141,555
Matches on record, all seasons676738
Recent form
Points, last 586
Goals scored, last 50.81.6
Goals conceded, last 50.61.6
Goals scored, last 101.11.5
Goals conceded, last 101.01.3
Clean sheets, last 1031
Failed to score, last 1021
Wins in a row00
Unbeaten run02
Losses in a row10
Days since last match2021
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there—1.6
Scored away, last 5 there1.0—
Conceded away, last 5 there1.4—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 58.015.8
Shots on target, last 53.05.5
Shots per possession0.1880.264
On-target shots per possession0.0810.097
Inside-box shots per possession0.1330.188
Share of shots from inside the box69.8%70.8%
Expected goals, last 5——
Possession, last 550.8%50.0%
Corners, last 55.06.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.2570.245
On-target allowed per possession0.0900.077
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1890.167
Opponents' inside-box share72.3%69.8%
Save rate80.5%63.5%
Saves, last 53.22.5
Expected goals conceded, last 5——
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy——
Passes, last 5442327
Fouls, last 512.812.2
Cards, last 52.21.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record14
Home side won6
Drawn4
Away side won4
Goals, home side19
Goals, away side17
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 37.8% · Draw 29.0% · Away 33.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Alanyaspor v Erzurumspor FK

super-lig · 13:00 UK
Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position413
Position last season10—
Points this season117
Goal difference this season+2-8
Elo rating going in1,6121,518
Matches on record, all seasons36480
Recent form
Points, last 5107
Goals scored, last 51.40.6
Goals conceded, last 51.01.6
Goals scored, last 101.40.8
Goals conceded, last 101.21.9
Clean sheets, last 1032
Failed to score, last 1014
Wins in a row11
Unbeaten run31
Losses in a row00
Days since last match2120
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—0.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there—1.4
Scored away, last 5 there1.2—
Conceded away, last 5 there1.2—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 510.89.8
Shots on target, last 53.23.0
Shots per possession0.2590.259
On-target shots per possession0.0860.074
Inside-box shots per possession0.1650.142
Share of shots from inside the box62.8%55.2%
Expected goals, last 51.190.66
Possession, last 540.8%40.4%
Corners, last 55.63.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.2380.263
On-target allowed per possession0.0910.084
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1460.180
Opponents' inside-box share61.2%67.4%
Save rate72.4%62.2%
Saves, last 53.82.0
Expected goals conceded, last 51.241.51
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy77.2%82.0%
Passes, last 5321379
Fouls, last 513.211.0
Cards, last 50.81.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record4
Home side won1
Drawn1
Away side won2
Goals, home side5
Goals, away side6
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 50.1% · Draw 27.8% · Away 22.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Genoa v Fiorentina

serie-a · 13:00 UK
Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position1916
Position last season1613
Points this season14
Goal difference this season-7-6
Elo rating going in1,5391,612
Matches on record, all seasons575613
Recent form
Points, last 514
Goals scored, last 50.61.2
Goals conceded, last 52.02.4
Goals scored, last 100.40.9
Goals conceded, last 101.51.7
Clean sheets, last 1023
Failed to score, last 1065
Wins in a row00
Unbeaten run02
Losses in a row10
Days since last match2020
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—0.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there—1.4
Scored away, last 5 there0.2—
Conceded away, last 5 there0.8—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 511.416.8
Shots on target, last 53.05.6
Shots per possession0.2060.321
On-target shots per possession0.0500.103
Inside-box shots per possession0.1280.198
Share of shots from inside the box61.2%61.0%
Expected goals, last 50.951.61
Possession, last 549.2%43.6%
Corners, last 54.84.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.2580.255
On-target allowed per possession0.0820.096
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1600.174
Opponents' inside-box share59.9%67.6%
Save rate67.8%70.8%
Saves, last 52.63.0
Expected goals conceded, last 51.001.50
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy81.0%82.5%
Passes, last 5399370
Fouls, last 59.011.0
Cards, last 52.21.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record30
Home side won2
Drawn16
Away side won12
Goals, home side27
Goals, away side46
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 28.8% · Draw 29.5% · Away 41.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Samsunspor v Trabzonspor

super-lig · 13:00 UK
Finished 0–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position165
Position last season73
Points this season410
Goal difference this season-6+8
Elo rating going in1,6271,732
Matches on record, all seasons148540
Recent form
Points, last 539
Goals scored, last 50.62.4
Goals conceded, last 51.80.8
Goals scored, last 101.61.7
Goals conceded, last 101.81.2
Clean sheets, last 1022
Failed to score, last 1042
Wins in a row01
Unbeaten run01
Losses in a row40
Days since last match2021
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—2.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there—1.0
Scored away, last 5 there1.0—
Conceded away, last 5 there1.4—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 511.614.4
Shots on target, last 52.66.8
Shots per possession0.2200.253
On-target shots per possession0.0730.107
Inside-box shots per possession0.1400.169
Share of shots from inside the box59.8%68.8%
Expected goals, last 50.511.50
Possession, last 554.4%55.6%
Corners, last 53.84.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.3860.324
On-target allowed per possession0.1320.116
Inside-box allowed per possession0.2600.193
Opponents' inside-box share65.9%59.5%
Save rate67.6%70.1%
Saves, last 54.03.8
Expected goals conceded, last 51.361.52
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy86.0%86.2%
Passes, last 5526470
Fouls, last 512.211.8
Cards, last 50.63.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record8
Home side won2
Drawn3
Away side won3
Goals, home side10
Goals, away side15
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 25.1% · Draw 25.5% · Away 49.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

1899 Hoffenheim v Hamburger SV

bundesliga · 13:30 UK
Finished 2–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position1415
Position last season513
Points this season33
Goal difference this season-3-11
Elo rating going in1,5831,490
Matches on record, all seasons548314
Recent form
Points, last 534
Goals scored, last 51.40.6
Goals conceded, last 52.82.8
Goals scored, last 101.71.0
Goals conceded, last 102.12.6
Clean sheets, last 1010
Failed to score, last 1014
Wins in a row01
Unbeaten run01
Losses in a row10
Days since last match2021
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there—2.2
Scored away, last 5 there1.4—
Conceded away, last 5 there2.6—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 517.411.2
Shots on target, last 54.64.2
Shots per possession0.2980.268
On-target shots per possession0.0940.103
Inside-box shots per possession0.1820.158
Share of shots from inside the box61.2%56.8%
Expected goals, last 51.691.24
Possession, last 556.8%43.8%
Corners, last 57.23.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.3170.293
On-target allowed per possession0.1170.120
Inside-box allowed per possession0.2230.188
Opponents' inside-box share71.9%61.5%
Save rate58.4%63.7%
Saves, last 52.64.0
Expected goals conceded, last 51.462.34
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy85.5%81.0%
Passes, last 5499371
Fouls, last 514.213.8
Cards, last 53.01.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record18
Home side won8
Drawn3
Away side won7
Goals, home side32
Goals, away side23
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 67.3% · Draw 19.3% · Away 13.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

FC Augsburg v Bayern München

bundesliga · 13:30 UK
Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position41
Position last season91
Points this season710
Goal difference this season+5+12
Elo rating going in1,5651,863
Matches on record, all seasons514548
Recent form
Points, last 5713
Goals scored, last 52.23.8
Goals conceded, last 52.00.6
Goals scored, last 102.23.6
Goals conceded, last 101.61.1
Clean sheets, last 1014
Failed to score, last 1011
Wins in a row02
Unbeaten run019
Losses in a row10
Days since last match2122
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—4.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there—1.4
Scored away, last 5 there2.2—
Conceded away, last 5 there2.0—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 513.421.2
Shots on target, last 56.08.4
Shots per possession0.3690.292
On-target shots per possession0.1680.117
Inside-box shots per possession0.2540.184
Share of shots from inside the box67.9%64.1%
Expected goals, last 52.063.49
Possession, last 543.2%70.2%
Corners, last 55.68.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.3230.338
On-target allowed per possession0.1120.128
Inside-box allowed per possession0.2180.243
Opponents' inside-box share66.3%70.5%
Save rate72.0%70.1%
Saves, last 55.21.4
Expected goals conceded, last 52.610.92
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy79.5%86.5%
Passes, last 5386730
Fouls, last 58.49.6
Cards, last 51.21.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record30
Home side won5
Drawn2
Away side won23
Goals, home side29
Goals, away side74
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 8.2% · Draw 9.8% · Away 82.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

FSV Mainz 05 v Bayer Leverkusen

bundesliga · 13:30 UK
Finished 3–4. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position54
Position last season106
Points this season77
Goal difference this season+4+5
Elo rating going in1,5791,709
Matches on record, all seasons548548
Recent form
Points, last 5108
Goals scored, last 52.42.2
Goals conceded, last 51.21.2
Goals scored, last 101.92.0
Goals conceded, last 101.61.3
Clean sheets, last 1033
Failed to score, last 1020
Wins in a row11
Unbeaten run13
Losses in a row00
Days since last match2120
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—2.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there—0.8
Scored away, last 5 there2.8—
Conceded away, last 5 there1.0—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 517.823.2
Shots on target, last 56.86.8
Shots per possession0.3560.333
On-target shots per possession0.1310.109
Inside-box shots per possession0.2570.241
Share of shots from inside the box71.6%70.0%
Expected goals, last 52.482.60
Possession, last 550.4%61.0%
Corners, last 55.49.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.2420.333
On-target allowed per possession0.0870.124
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1760.213
Opponents' inside-box share71.9%61.8%
Save rate63.0%66.7%
Saves, last 52.42.8
Expected goals conceded, last 51.651.46
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy81.0%89.0%
Passes, last 5432565
Fouls, last 512.812.0
Cards, last 52.01.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record32
Home side won9
Drawn5
Away side won18
Goals, home side38
Goals, away side53
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 31.8% · Draw 24.1% · Away 44.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

SC Paderborn 07 v VfB Stuttgart

bundesliga · 13:30 UK
Finished 0–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position1214
Position last season—4
Points this season43
Goal difference this season-2-3
Elo rating going in1,4181,647
Matches on record, all seasons74484
Recent form
Points, last 574
Goals scored, last 51.01.6
Goals conceded, last 51.22.2
Goals scored, last 100.92.1
Goals conceded, last 101.82.0
Clean sheets, last 1021
Failed to score, last 1051
Wins in a row10
Unbeaten run10
Losses in a row02
Days since last match2021
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there1.42.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there2.20.8
Scored away, last 5 there——
Conceded away, last 5 there——
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 517.214.8
Shots on target, last 53.65.8
Shots per possession0.2930.308
On-target shots per possession0.0700.128
Inside-box shots per possession0.1630.202
Share of shots from inside the box57.5%65.6%
Expected goals, last 50.761.09
Possession, last 550.6%51.0%
Corners, last 57.06.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.3150.339
On-target allowed per possession0.1140.130
Inside-box allowed per possession0.2090.232
Opponents' inside-box share67.6%68.0%
Save rate71.0%65.5%
Saves, last 53.24.0
Expected goals conceded, last 51.243.25
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy84.0%76.0%
Passes, last 5488464
Fouls, last 510.210.2
Cards, last 51.81.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record2
Home side won0
Drawn1
Away side won1
Goals, home side1
Goals, away side2
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 19.1% · Draw 19.9% · Away 61.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Union Berlin v SV Elversberg

bundesliga · 13:30 UK
Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position167
Position last season11—
Points this season17
Goal difference this season-13+1
Elo rating going in1,5061,583
Matches on record, all seasons2446
Recent form
Points, last 547
Goals scored, last 51.61.8
Goals conceded, last 53.41.8
Goals scored, last 101.6—
Goals conceded, last 102.8—
Clean sheets, last 1011
Failed to score, last 1021
Wins in a row00
Unbeaten run01
Losses in a row30
Days since last match2220
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there——
Conceded at home, last 5 there——
Scored away, last 5 there1.02.0
Conceded away, last 5 there3.61.7
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 512.69.8
Shots on target, last 55.84.0
Shots per possession0.2610.233
On-target shots per possession0.1030.094
Inside-box shots per possession0.1870.147
Share of shots from inside the box70.0%59.6%
Expected goals, last 52.801.12
Possession, last 546.2%46.8%
Corners, last 53.23.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.2670.370
On-target allowed per possession0.1210.091
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1750.255
Opponents' inside-box share66.6%68.6%
Save rate53.8%62.6%
Saves, last 53.82.2
Expected goals conceded, last 50.991.93
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy76.5%77.5%
Passes, last 5387413
Fouls, last 59.811.6
Cards, last 52.61.8
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 40.8% · Draw 25.2% · Away 34.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Aston Villa v Brentford

premier-league · 14:00 UK
Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position153
Position last season49
Points this season49
Goal difference this season-5+6
Elo rating going in1,7701,749
Matches on record, all seasons643666
Recent form
Points, last 549
Goals scored, last 50.82.0
Goals conceded, last 51.80.8
Goals scored, last 101.31.7
Goals conceded, last 101.71.2
Clean sheets, last 1013
Failed to score, last 1041
Wins in a row11
Unbeaten run17
Losses in a row00
Days since last match2122
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—2.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there—0.6
Scored away, last 5 there1.4—
Conceded away, last 5 there1.8—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 59.616.2
Shots on target, last 52.44.6
Shots per possession0.2240.292
On-target shots per possession0.0730.087
Inside-box shots per possession0.1340.210
Share of shots from inside the box59.4%69.7%
Expected goals, last 50.312.76
Possession, last 545.8%45.4%
Corners, last 53.04.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.3160.296
On-target allowed per possession0.1100.105
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1770.179
Opponents' inside-box share58.1%59.7%
Save rate68.6%71.9%
Saves, last 53.63.4
Expected goals conceded, last 52.360.96
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy78.5%80.5%
Passes, last 5406373
Fouls, last 511.014.4
Cards, last 52.22.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record16
Home side won4
Drawn6
Away side won6
Goals, home side20
Goals, away side20
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 34.8% · Draw 26.8% · Away 38.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Blackburn v Cardiff

championship · 14:00 UK
Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position1519
Position last season222
Points this season97
Goal difference this season+0-2
Elo rating going in1,4811,486
Matches on record, all seasons728686
Recent form
Points, last 554
Goals scored, last 51.41.0
Goals conceded, last 51.41.4
Goals scored, last 101.51.9
Goals conceded, last 101.41.8
Clean sheets, last 1010
Failed to score, last 1022
Wins in a row01
Unbeaten run21
Losses in a row00
Days since last match2121
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—2.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there—1.2
Scored away, last 5 there1.6—
Conceded away, last 5 there1.4—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 514.221.5
Shots on target, last 54.87.5
Shots per possession0.2430.313
On-target shots per possession0.0980.114
Inside-box shots per possession0.1570.214
Share of shots from inside the box66.8%68.4%
Expected goals, last 5——
Possession, last 555.2%64.0%
Corners, last 57.87.5
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.3140.341
On-target allowed per possession0.0930.173
Inside-box allowed per possession0.2090.217
Opponents' inside-box share65.5%62.0%
Save rate65.0%65.7%
Saves, last 52.03.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5——
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy——
Passes, last 5460506
Fouls, last 59.010.0
Cards, last 51.82.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record20
Home side won6
Drawn8
Away side won6
Goals, home side23
Goals, away side23
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 34.0% · Draw 25.9% · Away 40.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Bolton v Stoke City

championship · 14:00 UK
Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position156
Position last season517
Points this season1013
Goal difference this season-4+1
Elo rating going in1,4891,471
Matches on record, all seasons678680
Recent form
Points, last 5613
Goals scored, last 51.82.0
Goals conceded, last 52.60.6
Goals scored, last 101.61.4
Goals conceded, last 101.61.7
Clean sheets, last 1032
Failed to score, last 1031
Wins in a row22
Unbeaten run25
Losses in a row00
Days since last match2021
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there—1.2
Scored away, last 5 there1.4—
Conceded away, last 5 there2.0—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 510.514.8
Shots on target, last 55.05.8
Shots per possession0.2230.271
On-target shots per possession0.0920.078
Inside-box shots per possession0.1440.175
Share of shots from inside the box67.8%65.7%
Expected goals, last 5——
Possession, last 548.5%53.5%
Corners, last 54.26.5
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.2290.252
On-target allowed per possession0.1040.087
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1790.165
Opponents' inside-box share75.2%64.5%
Save rate70.7%61.1%
Saves, last 54.03.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5——
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy——
Passes, last 5377437
Fouls, last 512.214.5
Cards, last 51.41.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record6
Home side won2
Drawn2
Away side won2
Goals, home side9
Goals, away side7
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 34.3% · Draw 28.7% · Away 37.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Bradford v Leyton Orient

league-one · 14:00 UK
Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position211
Position last season420
Points this season1610
Goal difference this season+3+2
Elo rating going in1,4321,362
Matches on record, all seasons337336
Recent form
Points, last 5107
Goals scored, last 51.01.8
Goals conceded, last 50.61.2
Goals scored, last 100.81.5
Goals conceded, last 100.71.4
Clean sheets, last 1053
Failed to score, last 1032
Wins in a row00
Unbeaten run40
Losses in a row01
Days since last match77
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there—2.0
Scored away, last 5 there0.8—
Conceded away, last 5 there0.6—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 58.89.8
Shots on target, last 53.83.0
Shots per possession0.1670.198
On-target shots per possession0.0590.058
Inside-box shots per possession0.1110.125
Share of shots from inside the box69.5%61.0%
Expected goals, last 5——
Possession, last 543.8%51.5%
Corners, last 54.03.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.2120.345
On-target allowed per possession0.0430.130
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1300.234
Opponents' inside-box share62.4%67.3%
Save rate67.6%72.4%
Saves, last 51.84.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5——
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy——
Passes, last 5327390
Fouls, last 518.510.5
Cards, last 52.61.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record6
Home side won4
Drawn1
Away side won1
Goals, home side10
Goals, away side5
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 56.8% · Draw 24.3% · Away 19.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Cambridge United v Blackpool

league-one · 14:00 UK
Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position515
Position last season—13
Points this season138
Goal difference this season+2+0
Elo rating going in1,3351,406
Matches on record, all seasons192684
Recent form
Points, last 594
Goals scored, last 51.62.0
Goals conceded, last 51.22.2
Goals scored, last 101.51.6
Goals conceded, last 101.51.3
Clean sheets, last 1004
Failed to score, last 1000
Wins in a row00
Unbeaten run50
Losses in a row01
Days since last match1421
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there1.62.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there1.61.4
Scored away, last 5 there——
Conceded away, last 5 there——
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 513.514.2
Shots on target, last 53.84.8
Shots per possession0.2640.303
On-target shots per possession0.0900.110
Inside-box shots per possession0.1990.197
Share of shots from inside the box74.3%63.0%
Expected goals, last 5—2.73
Possession, last 546.2%52.6%
Corners, last 57.55.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.1920.353
On-target allowed per possession0.0800.112
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1180.213
Opponents' inside-box share62.0%58.9%
Save rate65.4%72.8%
Saves, last 52.24.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5—1.72
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy—75.0%
Passes, last 5340396
Fouls, last 512.011.6
Cards, last 52.21.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record4
Home side won1
Drawn1
Away side won2
Goals, home side7
Goals, away side8
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 47.6% · Draw 25.2% · Away 27.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Chelsea v Bournemouth

premier-league · 14:00 UK
Finished 5–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position717
Position last season106
Points this season73
Goal difference this season-2-2
Elo rating going in1,7411,755
Matches on record, all seasons613625
Recent form
Points, last 573
Goals scored, last 52.01.2
Goals conceded, last 52.41.6
Goals scored, last 101.51.4
Goals conceded, last 102.21.2
Clean sheets, last 1002
Failed to score, last 1021
Wins in a row00
Unbeaten run00
Losses in a row11
Days since last match2220
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there—1.0
Scored away, last 5 there1.2—
Conceded away, last 5 there2.0—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 514.413.6
Shots on target, last 55.25.2
Shots per possession0.2680.277
On-target shots per possession0.0910.100
Inside-box shots per possession0.1730.160
Share of shots from inside the box58.4%59.3%
Expected goals, last 52.331.39
Possession, last 547.6%47.4%
Corners, last 56.84.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.2760.227
On-target allowed per possession0.1190.073
Inside-box allowed per possession0.2070.165
Opponents' inside-box share76.6%73.7%
Save rate64.5%63.7%
Saves, last 54.42.2
Expected goals conceded, last 51.462.04
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy74.0%80.5%
Passes, last 5417398
Fouls, last 58.612.0
Cards, last 51.82.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record18
Home side won9
Drawn5
Away side won4
Goals, home side27
Goals, away side19
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 56.0% · Draw 23.3% · Away 20.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Derby v Wrexham

championship · 14:00 UK
Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position2214
Position last season87
Points this season510
Goal difference this season-7-3
Elo rating going in1,4911,560
Matches on record, all seasons708100
Recent form
Points, last 548
Goals scored, last 50.81.2
Goals conceded, last 51.41.6
Goals scored, last 101.11.2
Goals conceded, last 101.81.7
Clean sheets, last 1012
Failed to score, last 1032
Wins in a row01
Unbeaten run11
Losses in a row00
Days since last match2121
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there—1.4
Scored away, last 5 there1.4—
Conceded away, last 5 there1.6—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 513.09.8
Shots on target, last 53.22.8
Shots per possession0.2630.279
On-target shots per possession0.0750.089
Inside-box shots per possession0.1780.194
Share of shots from inside the box65.1%71.6%
Expected goals, last 5——
Possession, last 556.8%44.5%
Corners, last 58.23.5
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.3120.256
On-target allowed per possession0.1370.101
Inside-box allowed per possession0.2190.158
Opponents' inside-box share72.2%61.0%
Save rate67.9%60.7%
Saves, last 52.83.5
Expected goals conceded, last 5——
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy——
Passes, last 5434441
Fouls, last 512.010.0
Cards, last 51.00.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record2
Home side won0
Drawn1
Away side won1
Goals, home side2
Goals, away side3
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 32.0% · Draw 28.3% · Away 39.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Doncaster v Burton Albion

league-one · 14:00 UK
Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position218
Position last season1417
Points this season612
Goal difference this season-1-1
Elo rating going in1,3561,369
Matches on record, all seasons503504
Recent form
Points, last 555
Goals scored, last 51.41.2
Goals conceded, last 51.42.0
Goals scored, last 101.21.6
Goals conceded, last 101.31.7
Clean sheets, last 1021
Failed to score, last 1031
Wins in a row10
Unbeaten run10
Losses in a row01
Days since last match217
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there—1.8
Scored away, last 5 there1.6—
Conceded away, last 5 there1.2—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 515.09.2
Shots on target, last 55.02.6
Shots per possession0.2690.236
On-target shots per possession0.0990.094
Inside-box shots per possession0.1840.136
Share of shots from inside the box66.3%54.1%
Expected goals, last 50.65—
Possession, last 551.5%48.4%
Corners, last 56.53.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.2860.246
On-target allowed per possession0.0920.088
Inside-box allowed per possession0.2010.184
Opponents' inside-box share68.1%72.8%
Save rate73.0%59.8%
Saves, last 53.02.4
Expected goals conceded, last 50.47—
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy71.0%—
Passes, last 5364367
Fouls, last 513.010.2
Cards, last 52.01.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record11
Home side won3
Drawn5
Away side won3
Goals, home side15
Goals, away side16
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 56.4% · Draw 22.5% · Away 21.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Dundee Utd v Hibernian

scottish-prem · 14:00 UK
Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position810
Position last season75
Points this season87
Goal difference this season-2-3
Elo rating going in1,5071,569
Matches on record, all seasons423490
Recent form
Points, last 574
Goals scored, last 51.61.0
Goals conceded, last 51.21.6
Goals scored, last 101.01.3
Goals conceded, last 101.41.4
Clean sheets, last 1030
Failed to score, last 1052
Wins in a row10
Unbeaten run21
Losses in a row00
Days since last match2121
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—0.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there—1.6
Scored away, last 5 there1.6—
Conceded away, last 5 there1.6—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 517.818.2
Shots on target, last 56.44.6
Shots per possession0.2640.322
On-target shots per possession0.0880.091
Inside-box shots per possession0.1810.226
Share of shots from inside the box65.2%70.3%
Expected goals, last 52.312.42
Possession, last 551.8%54.0%
Corners, last 57.08.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.3230.238
On-target allowed per possession0.1050.092
Inside-box allowed per possession0.2130.152
Opponents' inside-box share65.9%63.4%
Save rate69.5%70.5%
Saves, last 53.02.6
Expected goals conceded, last 51.320.78
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy84.0%87.0%
Passes, last 5404488
Fouls, last 511.612.6
Cards, last 52.61.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record28
Home side won10
Drawn11
Away side won7
Goals, home side49
Goals, away side41
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 34.1% · Draw 26.6% · Away 39.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Falkirk v Dundee

scottish-prem · 14:00 UK
Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position114
Position last season68
Points this season610
Goal difference this season-3+2
Elo rating going in1,5241,490
Matches on record, all seasons45391
Recent form
Points, last 557
Goals scored, last 51.21.4
Goals conceded, last 51.41.2
Goals scored, last 100.91.6
Goals conceded, last 102.01.2
Clean sheets, last 1013
Failed to score, last 1031
Wins in a row01
Unbeaten run31
Losses in a row00
Days since last match2121
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there—1.2
Scored away, last 5 there0.6—
Conceded away, last 5 there1.4—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 511.010.0
Shots on target, last 53.63.2
Shots per possession0.2040.271
On-target shots per possession0.0550.090
Inside-box shots per possession0.1300.198
Share of shots from inside the box64.1%73.2%
Expected goals, last 50.531.20
Possession, last 544.6%40.6%
Corners, last 54.84.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.2770.297
On-target allowed per possession0.1050.081
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1840.184
Opponents' inside-box share65.5%61.6%
Save rate66.7%73.8%
Saves, last 55.04.2
Expected goals conceded, last 52.871.83
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy85.0%72.0%
Passes, last 5391319
Fouls, last 514.612.4
Cards, last 52.41.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record3
Home side won2
Drawn0
Away side won1
Goals, home side3
Goals, away side2
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 47.6% · Draw 26.3% · Away 26.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Heart Of Midlothian v ST Mirren

scottish-prem · 14:00 UK
Finished 5–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position25
Position last season211
Points this season1310
Goal difference this season+6-1
Elo rating going in1,6671,480
Matches on record, all seasons527492
Recent form
Points, last 5104
Goals scored, last 51.81.0
Goals conceded, last 51.21.8
Goals scored, last 101.91.1
Goals conceded, last 101.21.1
Clean sheets, last 1024
Failed to score, last 1002
Wins in a row00
Unbeaten run10
Losses in a row03
Days since last match2121
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there—1.6
Scored away, last 5 there1.4—
Conceded away, last 5 there1.8—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 516.214.4
Shots on target, last 55.23.6
Shots per possession0.2930.312
On-target shots per possession0.0960.096
Inside-box shots per possession0.1940.194
Share of shots from inside the box67.1%63.0%
Expected goals, last 51.712.27
Possession, last 554.4%49.6%
Corners, last 58.04.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.1890.266
On-target allowed per possession0.0450.097
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1360.193
Opponents' inside-box share71.6%69.9%
Save rate62.0%70.6%
Saves, last 51.64.6
Expected goals conceded, last 51.162.17
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy81.0%84.0%
Passes, last 5490452
Fouls, last 512.211.8
Cards, last 51.42.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record37
Home side won19
Drawn9
Away side won9
Goals, home side61
Goals, away side36
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 65.1% · Draw 19.5% · Away 15.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Huddersfield v Sheffield Wednesday

league-one · 14:00 UK
Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position32
Position last season924
Points this season1514
Goal difference this season+7+7
Elo rating going in1,4331,373
Matches on record, all seasons690707
Recent form
Points, last 5811
Goals scored, last 51.62.2
Goals conceded, last 51.00.8
Goals scored, last 101.91.6
Goals conceded, last 101.11.2
Clean sheets, last 1032
Failed to score, last 1014
Wins in a row10
Unbeaten run15
Losses in a row00
Days since last match721
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there—0.8
Scored away, last 5 there1.4—
Conceded away, last 5 there1.0—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 517.015.0
Shots on target, last 56.26.2
Shots per possession0.2850.241
On-target shots per possession0.1070.089
Inside-box shots per possession0.2090.179
Share of shots from inside the box71.4%73.0%
Expected goals, last 5—4.52
Possession, last 558.8%55.0%
Corners, last 59.86.5
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.1880.298
On-target allowed per possession0.0590.081
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1160.204
Opponents' inside-box share54.8%68.3%
Save rate59.2%64.8%
Saves, last 51.21.5
Expected goals conceded, last 5—1.50
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy—85.0%
Passes, last 5436469
Fouls, last 512.010.5
Cards, last 50.81.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record20
Home side won4
Drawn9
Away side won7
Goals, home side20
Goals, away side23
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 56.3% · Draw 23.2% · Away 20.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Ipswich v Fulham

premier-league · 14:00 UK
Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position1119
Position last season211
Points this season62
Goal difference this season-4-3
Elo rating going in1,6281,688
Matches on record, all seasons679669
Recent form
Points, last 562
Goals scored, last 51.41.0
Goals conceded, last 52.21.6
Goals scored, last 101.60.9
Goals conceded, last 101.61.3
Clean sheets, last 1023
Failed to score, last 1034
Wins in a row00
Unbeaten run02
Losses in a row10
Days since last match2120
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there—1.6
Scored away, last 5 there1.4—
Conceded away, last 5 there2.0—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 511.614.0
Shots on target, last 54.64.4
Shots per possession0.2710.271
On-target shots per possession0.1060.084
Inside-box shots per possession0.1770.176
Share of shots from inside the box66.4%64.9%
Expected goals, last 51.881.07
Possession, last 545.0%54.2%
Corners, last 53.65.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.2920.302
On-target allowed per possession0.1090.099
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1820.199
Opponents' inside-box share63.3%64.9%
Save rate67.6%68.2%
Saves, last 53.43.2
Expected goals conceded, last 52.671.73
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy81.0%85.5%
Passes, last 5407542
Fouls, last 511.610.0
Cards, last 51.81.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record10
Home side won3
Drawn3
Away side won4
Goals, home side12
Goals, away side18
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 34.8% · Draw 26.8% · Away 38.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Leicester v Peterborough

league-one · 14:00 UK
Finished 1–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position1123
Position last season2118
Points this season95
Goal difference this season-2-9
Elo rating going in1,4721,312
Matches on record, all seasons619693
Recent form
Points, last 582
Goals scored, last 51.40.4
Goals conceded, last 51.61.2
Goals scored, last 101.30.5
Goals conceded, last 101.41.6
Clean sheets, last 1032
Failed to score, last 1026
Wins in a row00
Unbeaten run20
Losses in a row02
Days since last match2114
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there——
Conceded at home, last 5 there——
Scored away, last 5 there1.40.4
Conceded away, last 5 there1.02.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 516.815.2
Shots on target, last 56.22.5
Shots per possession0.2730.252
On-target shots per possession0.0920.067
Inside-box shots per possession0.1650.166
Share of shots from inside the box58.3%67.3%
Expected goals, last 51.53—
Possession, last 566.8%57.5%
Corners, last 58.06.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.3710.330
On-target allowed per possession0.1240.135
Inside-box allowed per possession0.2430.258
Opponents' inside-box share65.6%77.4%
Save rate64.2%67.7%
Saves, last 52.22.5
Expected goals conceded, last 50.57—
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy89.0%—
Passes, last 5590474
Fouls, last 59.89.0
Cards, last 51.81.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record4
Home side won1
Drawn1
Away side won2
Goals, home side4
Goals, away side4
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 61.8% · Draw 19.4% · Away 18.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Mansfield Town v Bromley

league-one · 14:00 UK
Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position1419
Position last season10—
Points this season88
Goal difference this season-3-10
Elo rating going in1,4091,383
Matches on record, all seasons997
Recent form
Points, last 554
Goals scored, last 51.41.2
Goals conceded, last 52.03.4
Goals scored, last 101.9—
Goals conceded, last 101.8—
Clean sheets, last 1021
Failed to score, last 1042
Wins in a row01
Unbeaten run22
Losses in a row00
Days since last match2121
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—0.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there—2.2
Scored away, last 5 there0.6—
Conceded away, last 5 there2.0—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 512.29.0
Shots on target, last 53.83.8
Shots per possession0.2790.242
On-target shots per possession0.1080.101
Inside-box shots per possession0.1840.149
Share of shots from inside the box64.6%61.6%
Expected goals, last 51.331.50
Possession, last 546.6%36.0%
Corners, last 53.24.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.2510.261
On-target allowed per possession0.0800.113
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1620.190
Opponents' inside-box share64.7%72.3%
Save rate61.1%66.1%
Saves, last 52.64.8
Expected goals conceded, last 51.304.52
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy74.0%62.0%
Passes, last 5356229
Fouls, last 514.216.0
Cards, last 52.61.2
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 51.9% · Draw 24.7% · Away 23.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Middlesbrough v Wolves

championship · 14:00 UK
Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position35
Position last season520
Points this season1514
Goal difference this season+4+5
Elo rating going in1,5771,602
Matches on record, all seasons700663
Recent form
Points, last 5910
Goals scored, last 52.02.0
Goals conceded, last 51.61.4
Goals scored, last 101.71.7
Goals conceded, last 101.51.5
Clean sheets, last 1012
Failed to score, last 1011
Wins in a row02
Unbeaten run63
Losses in a row00
Days since last match2120
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there—1.0
Scored away, last 5 there1.0—
Conceded away, last 5 there1.2—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 517.515.0
Shots on target, last 55.85.2
Shots per possession0.3180.316
On-target shots per possession0.0840.092
Inside-box shots per possession0.2100.224
Share of shots from inside the box65.2%72.2%
Expected goals, last 5—2.64
Possession, last 555.8%52.0%
Corners, last 55.87.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.3190.212
On-target allowed per possession0.1110.075
Inside-box allowed per possession0.2340.125
Opponents' inside-box share71.2%57.7%
Save rate62.2%70.1%
Saves, last 53.52.5
Expected goals conceded, last 5—0.88
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy—85.0%
Passes, last 5480389
Fouls, last 58.814.5
Cards, last 51.00.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record8
Home side won4
Drawn0
Away side won4
Goals, home side12
Goals, away side11
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 44.3% · Draw 25.6% · Away 30.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Milton Keynes Dons v Reading

league-one · 14:00 UK
Finished 1–5. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position197
Position last season—12
Points this season612
Goal difference this season-2+7
Elo rating going in1,3761,416
Matches on record, all seasons506693
Recent form
Points, last 548
Goals scored, last 51.01.8
Goals conceded, last 51.41.2
Goals scored, last 101.21.8
Goals conceded, last 101.51.2
Clean sheets, last 1033
Failed to score, last 1042
Wins in a row00
Unbeaten run33
Losses in a row00
Days since last match237
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—2.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there—1.2
Scored away, last 5 there1.2—
Conceded away, last 5 there1.6—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 512.417.4
Shots on target, last 52.85.4
Shots per possession0.3330.317
On-target shots per possession0.0790.093
Inside-box shots per possession0.2500.221
Share of shots from inside the box75.4%74.7%
Expected goals, last 50.57—
Possession, last 543.0%47.6%
Corners, last 55.25.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.2920.238
On-target allowed per possession0.1030.072
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1990.137
Opponents' inside-box share67.5%60.7%
Save rate69.1%69.4%
Saves, last 53.41.8
Expected goals conceded, last 51.53—
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy65.0%—
Passes, last 5309355
Fouls, last 513.412.6
Cards, last 51.81.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record2
Home side won1
Drawn1
Away side won0
Goals, home side1
Goals, away side0
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 36.6% · Draw 26.5% · Away 37.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Preston v Millwall

championship · 14:00 UK
Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position2311
Position last season143
Points this season411
Goal difference this season-7+0
Elo rating going in1,4411,582
Matches on record, all seasons703706
Recent form
Points, last 545
Goals scored, last 51.21.8
Goals conceded, last 51.82.0
Goals scored, last 101.21.5
Goals conceded, last 102.01.7
Clean sheets, last 1004
Failed to score, last 1023
Wins in a row00
Unbeaten run12
Losses in a row00
Days since last match2121
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there—1.4
Scored away, last 5 there1.4—
Conceded away, last 5 there1.8—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 512.814.5
Shots on target, last 53.84.5
Shots per possession0.3080.349
On-target shots per possession0.0900.108
Inside-box shots per possession0.2120.278
Share of shots from inside the box69.0%77.7%
Expected goals, last 5——
Possession, last 541.0%36.8%
Corners, last 56.52.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.2850.277
On-target allowed per possession0.0790.083
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1730.164
Opponents' inside-box share61.5%56.9%
Save rate63.4%63.2%
Saves, last 54.03.5
Expected goals conceded, last 5——
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy——
Passes, last 5306270
Fouls, last 510.514.2
Cards, last 51.81.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record18
Home side won2
Drawn8
Away side won8
Goals, home side16
Goals, away side26
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 32.6% · Draw 27.2% · Away 40.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Rangers v Kilmarnock

scottish-prem · 14:00 UK
Finished 3–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position212
Position last season310
Points this season165
Goal difference this season+4-9
Elo rating going in1,7331,478
Matches on record, all seasons449568
Recent form
Points, last 5155
Goals scored, last 51.20.4
Goals conceded, last 50.21.2
Goals scored, last 101.51.6
Goals conceded, last 101.11.7
Clean sheets, last 1043
Failed to score, last 1003
Wins in a row50
Unbeaten run53
Losses in a row00
Days since last match2021
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there—2.4
Scored away, last 5 there2.0—
Conceded away, last 5 there0.8—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 518.810.4
Shots on target, last 56.43.4
Shots per possession0.3450.253
On-target shots per possession0.1210.100
Inside-box shots per possession0.2390.180
Share of shots from inside the box69.4%73.1%
Expected goals, last 51.841.03
Possession, last 550.6%42.4%
Corners, last 57.05.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.2140.273
On-target allowed per possession0.0700.087
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1610.201
Opponents' inside-box share76.1%72.1%
Save rate68.7%69.5%
Saves, last 52.63.0
Expected goals conceded, last 50.453.37
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy82.0%80.0%
Passes, last 5412375
Fouls, last 514.211.8
Cards, last 51.62.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record36
Home side won22
Drawn5
Away side won9
Goals, home side66
Goals, away side32
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 82.8% · Draw 10.9% · Away 6.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Sheffield Utd v Lincoln

championship · 14:00 UK
Finished 3–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position1513
Position last season131
Points this season911
Goal difference this season-2-1
Elo rating going in1,5121,567
Matches on record, all seasons685322
Recent form
Points, last 568
Goals scored, last 51.40.8
Goals conceded, last 51.80.6
Goals scored, last 101.31.3
Goals conceded, last 101.51.1
Clean sheets, last 1025
Failed to score, last 1031
Wins in a row00
Unbeaten run00
Losses in a row21
Days since last match2121
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there—1.8
Scored away, last 5 there1.4—
Conceded away, last 5 there1.2—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 58.012.5
Shots on target, last 53.23.8
Shots per possession0.2210.323
On-target shots per possession0.0830.102
Inside-box shots per possession0.1450.224
Share of shots from inside the box67.3%67.7%
Expected goals, last 5——
Possession, last 539.5%44.5%
Corners, last 52.83.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.2850.268
On-target allowed per possession0.0960.079
Inside-box allowed per possession0.2130.155
Opponents' inside-box share72.3%57.3%
Save rate66.2%69.8%
Saves, last 53.02.5
Expected goals conceded, last 5——
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy——
Passes, last 5333288
Fouls, last 513.813.5
Cards, last 52.02.2
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 42.2% · Draw 28.5% · Away 29.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Stevenage v Wigan

league-one · 14:00 UK
Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position1124
Position last season616
Points this season94
Goal difference this season+3-7
Elo rating going in1,4201,337
Matches on record, all seasons287721
Recent form
Points, last 584
Goals scored, last 51.80.6
Goals conceded, last 51.01.4
Goals scored, last 101.20.5
Goals conceded, last 101.11.4
Clean sheets, last 1022
Failed to score, last 1048
Wins in a row00
Unbeaten run00
Losses in a row11
Days since last match2121
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—0.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there—1.8
Scored away, last 5 there1.2—
Conceded away, last 5 there1.0—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 511.013.4
Shots on target, last 54.23.2
Shots per possession0.2500.252
On-target shots per possession0.0860.056
Inside-box shots per possession0.1690.166
Share of shots from inside the box67.6%66.5%
Expected goals, last 50.472.79
Possession, last 543.2%50.6%
Corners, last 55.06.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.2000.265
On-target allowed per possession0.0630.073
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1160.180
Opponents' inside-box share59.1%66.2%
Save rate61.0%68.0%
Saves, last 51.22.4
Expected goals conceded, last 50.650.70
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy68.0%78.0%
Passes, last 5312414
Fouls, last 512.211.4
Cards, last 52.23.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record6
Home side won3
Drawn2
Away side won1
Goals, home side6
Goals, away side4
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 45.3% · Draw 28.7% · Away 25.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Stockport County v Barnsley

league-one · 14:00 UK
Finished 3–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position315
Position last season315
Points this season138
Goal difference this season+7-5
Elo rating going in1,4791,367
Matches on record, all seasons105707
Recent form
Points, last 577
Goals scored, last 51.61.4
Goals conceded, last 51.22.2
Goals scored, last 102.01.0
Goals conceded, last 101.41.7
Clean sheets, last 1042
Failed to score, last 1023
Wins in a row10
Unbeaten run21
Losses in a row00
Days since last match1421
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there2.41.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there1.42.2
Scored away, last 5 there——
Conceded away, last 5 there——
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 515.416.8
Shots on target, last 54.44.4
Shots per possession0.2710.292
On-target shots per possession0.0900.083
Inside-box shots per possession0.2130.189
Share of shots from inside the box78.7%63.3%
Expected goals, last 5—1.99
Possession, last 553.4%50.8%
Corners, last 56.48.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.2320.283
On-target allowed per possession0.1000.098
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1620.194
Opponents' inside-box share70.9%65.7%
Save rate68.4%59.2%
Saves, last 52.22.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5—0.73
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy—65.0%
Passes, last 5543325
Fouls, last 59.414.4
Cards, last 51.23.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record4
Home side won2
Drawn2
Away side won0
Goals, home side7
Goals, away side4
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 66.5% · Draw 17.7% · Away 15.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Sunderland v Brighton

premier-league · 14:00 UK
Finished 0–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position143
Position last season78
Points this season410
Goal difference this season-4+11
Elo rating going in1,6731,763
Matches on record, all seasons680629
Recent form
Points, last 5410
Goals scored, last 51.23.2
Goals conceded, last 52.01.0
Goals scored, last 101.22.3
Goals conceded, last 101.81.2
Clean sheets, last 1025
Failed to score, last 1032
Wins in a row02
Unbeaten run03
Losses in a row20
Days since last match2021
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—2.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there—0.8
Scored away, last 5 there1.8—
Conceded away, last 5 there2.0—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 513.219.0
Shots on target, last 55.05.8
Shots per possession0.2770.274
On-target shots per possession0.0910.094
Inside-box shots per possession0.1910.193
Share of shots from inside the box67.0%71.9%
Expected goals, last 51.252.62
Possession, last 548.4%64.6%
Corners, last 54.05.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.2320.296
On-target allowed per possession0.0750.101
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1490.232
Opponents' inside-box share63.1%72.7%
Save rate59.1%67.9%
Saves, last 51.22.4
Expected goals conceded, last 51.271.64
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy85.5%90.5%
Passes, last 5400543
Fouls, last 513.013.0
Cards, last 52.22.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record2
Home side won0
Drawn1
Away side won1
Goals, home side0
Goals, away side1
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 31.5% · Draw 27.6% · Away 40.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Watford v Burnley

championship · 14:00 UK
Finished 0–4. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position1724
Position last season1619
Points this season84
Goal difference this season-3-8
Elo rating going in1,4541,545
Matches on record, all seasons653626
Recent form
Points, last 533
Goals scored, last 50.61.0
Goals conceded, last 51.41.6
Goals scored, last 100.81.0
Goals conceded, last 101.91.9
Clean sheets, last 1000
Failed to score, last 1041
Wins in a row00
Unbeaten run01
Losses in a row20
Days since last match2221
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there—1.4
Scored away, last 5 there0.4—
Conceded away, last 5 there2.0—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 510.512.8
Shots on target, last 52.83.5
Shots per possession0.2740.254
On-target shots per possession0.0820.071
Inside-box shots per possession0.1890.137
Share of shots from inside the box65.6%53.5%
Expected goals, last 5——
Possession, last 553.2%48.5%
Corners, last 54.04.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.3060.320
On-target allowed per possession0.1000.103
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1790.221
Opponents' inside-box share59.7%71.8%
Save rate65.7%58.2%
Saves, last 54.52.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5——
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy——
Passes, last 5454458
Fouls, last 511.811.0
Cards, last 52.02.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record20
Home side won4
Drawn8
Away side won8
Goals, home side21
Goals, away side27
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 33.8% · Draw 27.2% · Away 39.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Wycombe v Luton

league-one · 14:00 UK
Finished 1–4. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position1216
Position last season117
Points this season108
Goal difference this season-3-2
Elo rating going in1,4171,455
Matches on record, all seasons418372
Recent form
Points, last 584
Goals scored, last 52.01.2
Goals conceded, last 51.81.8
Goals scored, last 101.91.9
Goals conceded, last 102.21.7
Clean sheets, last 1012
Failed to score, last 1001
Wins in a row00
Unbeaten run40
Losses in a row02
Days since last match1421
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there2.01.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there2.01.0
Scored away, last 5 there——
Conceded away, last 5 there——
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 512.813.2
Shots on target, last 55.04.2
Shots per possession0.2800.251
On-target shots per possession0.1130.082
Inside-box shots per possession0.2000.175
Share of shots from inside the box71.6%69.8%
Expected goals, last 5—1.30
Possession, last 549.8%56.8%
Corners, last 56.06.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.2910.280
On-target allowed per possession0.1060.095
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1500.185
Opponents' inside-box share50.3%65.7%
Save rate59.8%65.0%
Saves, last 53.01.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5—1.33
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy—81.0%
Passes, last 5382485
Fouls, last 59.511.2
Cards, last 51.21.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record6
Home side won0
Drawn1
Away side won5
Goals, home side3
Goals, away side15
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 35.5% · Draw 26.0% · Away 38.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

AD Ceuta FC v Sabadell

laliga-2 · 14:15 UK
Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position216
Position last season9—
Points this season512
Goal difference this season-11+2
Elo rating going in1,4431,457
Matches on record, all seasons5049
Recent form
Points, last 5510
Goals scored, last 51.21.6
Goals conceded, last 51.61.2
Goals scored, last 101.01.2
Goals conceded, last 101.80.8
Clean sheets, last 1025
Failed to score, last 1034
Wins in a row00
Unbeaten run32
Losses in a row00
Days since last match614
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there——
Conceded at home, last 5 there——
Scored away, last 5 there1.00.6
Conceded away, last 5 there2.40.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 516.015.6
Shots on target, last 54.85.4
Shots per possession0.2480.302
On-target shots per possession0.0690.098
Inside-box shots per possession0.1700.196
Share of shots from inside the box64.8%64.9%
Expected goals, last 5——
Possession, last 548.8%50.2%
Corners, last 56.85.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.2280.174
On-target allowed per possession0.0800.057
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1490.081
Opponents' inside-box share63.2%48.5%
Save rate60.1%72.2%
Saves, last 51.81.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5——
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy—63.0%
Passes, last 5372346
Fouls, last 515.017.2
Cards, last 52.62.8
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 30.6% · Draw 28.5% · Away 40.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Alaves v Atletico Madrid

la-liga · 14:15 UK
Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position62
Position last season144
Points this season1116
Goal difference this season+5+9
Elo rating going in1,5921,751
Matches on record, all seasons395615
Recent form
Points, last 5712
Goals scored, last 51.42.4
Goals conceded, last 51.01.0
Goals scored, last 101.42.0
Goals conceded, last 100.81.3
Clean sheets, last 1054
Failed to score, last 1021
Wins in a row03
Unbeaten run13
Losses in a row00
Days since last match2120
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—2.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there—0.6
Scored away, last 5 there0.8—
Conceded away, last 5 there0.8—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 510.817.0
Shots on target, last 54.07.0
Shots per possession0.2990.273
On-target shots per possession0.1060.103
Inside-box shots per possession0.1850.174
Share of shots from inside the box56.8%66.1%
Expected goals, last 50.810.93
Possession, last 538.6%59.0%
Corners, last 53.64.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.1900.277
On-target allowed per possession0.0630.099
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1130.177
Opponents' inside-box share61.1%65.5%
Save rate74.4%71.2%
Saves, last 53.82.2
Expected goals conceded, last 51.280.96
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy74.0%86.0%
Passes, last 5309580
Fouls, last 513.211.4
Cards, last 51.61.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record18
Home side won2
Drawn5
Away side won11
Goals, home side11
Goals, away side26
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 21.6% · Draw 25.3% · Away 53.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Casa Pia v Santa Clara

primeira-liga · 14:30 UK
Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position174
Position last season1612
Points this season415
Goal difference this season-13+7
Elo rating going in1,5211,606
Matches on record, all seasons145245
Recent form
Points, last 5411
Goals scored, last 50.61.6
Goals conceded, last 51.60.4
Goals scored, last 100.61.5
Goals conceded, last 101.70.7
Clean sheets, last 1035
Failed to score, last 1062
Wins in a row10
Unbeaten run17
Losses in a row00
Days since last match2020
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there—0.4
Scored away, last 5 there0.4—
Conceded away, last 5 there0.8—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 512.013.0
Shots on target, last 53.03.4
Shots per possession0.2630.283
On-target shots per possession0.0840.068
Inside-box shots per possession0.1590.181
Share of shots from inside the box64.0%63.7%
Expected goals, last 50.771.39
Possession, last 543.4%44.8%
Corners, last 54.44.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.2600.168
On-target allowed per possession0.0830.055
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1650.094
Opponents' inside-box share61.2%55.9%
Save rate64.7%74.9%
Saves, last 53.62.0
Expected goals conceded, last 51.010.73
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy82.0%74.0%
Passes, last 5320370
Fouls, last 511.212.4
Cards, last 52.02.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record6
Home side won1
Drawn2
Away side won3
Goals, home side3
Goals, away side6
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 20.5% · Draw 28.1% · Away 51.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

GO Ahead Eagles v Sparta Rotterdam

eredivisie · 14:30 UK
Finished 3–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position913
Position last season1210
Points this season105
Goal difference this season+2-7
Elo rating going in1,5601,514
Matches on record, all seasons281311
Recent form
Points, last 562
Goals scored, last 52.01.4
Goals conceded, last 52.23.0
Goals scored, last 102.01.4
Goals conceded, last 102.22.6
Clean sheets, last 1000
Failed to score, last 1003
Wins in a row00
Unbeaten run30
Losses in a row02
Days since last match2021
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there—2.6
Scored away, last 5 there1.8—
Conceded away, last 5 there2.6—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 514.213.2
Shots on target, last 55.64.2
Shots per possession0.2520.319
On-target shots per possession0.1010.093
Inside-box shots per possession0.1760.223
Share of shots from inside the box71.7%68.2%
Expected goals, last 51.421.35
Possession, last 553.8%48.0%
Corners, last 56.06.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.4150.342
On-target allowed per possession0.1100.115
Inside-box allowed per possession0.2720.227
Opponents' inside-box share63.2%65.7%
Save rate64.1%61.8%
Saves, last 52.83.6
Expected goals conceded, last 51.691.54
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy82.0%85.0%
Passes, last 5467416
Fouls, last 57.68.6
Cards, last 51.00.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record12
Home side won4
Drawn2
Away side won6
Goals, home side11
Goals, away side14
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 55.6% · Draw 23.0% · Away 21.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Lille v Le Havre

ligue-1 · 15:15 UK
Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position417
Position last season314
Points this season102
Goal difference this season+4-3
Elo rating going in1,6921,492
Matches on record, all seasons591107
Recent form
Points, last 5102
Goals scored, last 51.60.8
Goals conceded, last 50.81.4
Goals scored, last 101.11.2
Goals conceded, last 100.71.4
Clean sheets, last 1062
Failed to score, last 1023
Wins in a row00
Unbeaten run00
Losses in a row11
Days since last match2021
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there——
Conceded at home, last 5 there——
Scored away, last 5 there1.21.4
Conceded away, last 5 there0.41.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 512.815.4
Shots on target, last 56.45.0
Shots per possession0.2350.261
On-target shots per possession0.1040.097
Inside-box shots per possession0.1570.170
Share of shots from inside the box67.0%67.9%
Expected goals, last 51.170.63
Possession, last 547.8%48.4%
Corners, last 52.85.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.2240.259
On-target allowed per possession0.0740.100
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1480.158
Opponents' inside-box share68.6%59.7%
Save rate74.9%73.2%
Saves, last 53.44.2
Expected goals conceded, last 51.641.54
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy83.0%81.5%
Passes, last 5462399
Fouls, last 510.614.8
Cards, last 51.21.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record6
Home side won4
Drawn1
Away side won1
Goals, home side11
Goals, away side3
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 66.0% · Draw 19.7% · Away 14.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Inter v Parma

serie-a · 16:00 UK
Finished 3–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position213
Position last season112
Points this season134
Goal difference this season+7-3
Elo rating going in1,8671,546
Matches on record, all seasons613385
Recent form
Points, last 5134
Goals scored, last 53.00.8
Goals conceded, last 51.61.4
Goals scored, last 102.60.8
Goals conceded, last 101.41.3
Clean sheets, last 1032
Failed to score, last 1004
Wins in a row01
Unbeaten run151
Losses in a row00
Days since last match2120
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there—1.2
Scored away, last 5 there2.2—
Conceded away, last 5 there1.4—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 523.07.4
Shots on target, last 57.42.8
Shots per possession0.2920.197
On-target shots per possession0.1010.064
Inside-box shots per possession0.2140.125
Share of shots from inside the box74.3%69.0%
Expected goals, last 52.610.63
Possession, last 563.2%43.0%
Corners, last 56.23.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.2980.262
On-target allowed per possession0.0950.083
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1960.182
Opponents' inside-box share67.0%68.5%
Save rate66.1%73.4%
Saves, last 52.44.0
Expected goals conceded, last 51.031.60
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy89.8%82.5%
Passes, last 5609353
Fouls, last 56.610.2
Cards, last 51.61.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record20
Home side won10
Drawn5
Away side won5
Goals, home side36
Goals, away side24
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 85.1% · Draw 9.6% · Away 5.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Rizespor v Fenerbahçe

super-lig · 16:00 UK
Finished 0–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position95
Position last season82
Points this season1010
Goal difference this season+1+10
Elo rating going in1,6081,833
Matches on record, all seasons396540
Recent form
Points, last 5710
Goals scored, last 51.23.0
Goals conceded, last 51.20.8
Goals scored, last 101.22.5
Goals conceded, last 101.61.3
Clean sheets, last 1024
Failed to score, last 1042
Wins in a row01
Unbeaten run22
Losses in a row00
Days since last match2020
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—3.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there—1.6
Scored away, last 5 there1.4—
Conceded away, last 5 there1.4—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 515.816.5
Shots on target, last 55.07.5
Shots per possession0.2790.333
On-target shots per possession0.0850.140
Inside-box shots per possession0.1580.227
Share of shots from inside the box57.0%65.8%
Expected goals, last 51.272.98
Possession, last 555.8%48.0%
Corners, last 54.65.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.3380.279
On-target allowed per possession0.1150.097
Inside-box allowed per possession0.2100.150
Opponents' inside-box share62.5%54.1%
Save rate70.0%68.9%
Saves, last 53.84.0
Expected goals conceded, last 51.450.84
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy83.6%89.3%
Passes, last 5443413
Fouls, last 511.413.8
Cards, last 51.81.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record22
Home side won1
Drawn3
Away side won18
Goals, home side22
Goals, away side63
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 20.7% · Draw 22.8% · Away 56.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Barcelona v Getafe

la-liga · 16:30 UK
Finished 3–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position19
Position last season17
Points this season218
Goal difference this season+24-3
Elo rating going in1,9001,581
Matches on record, all seasons615623
Recent form
Points, last 5155
Goals scored, last 54.80.6
Goals conceded, last 51.40.8
Goals scored, last 103.50.8
Goals conceded, last 101.20.9
Clean sheets, last 1033
Failed to score, last 1014
Wins in a row71
Unbeaten run71
Losses in a row00
Days since last match2120
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there—0.4
Scored away, last 5 there3.6—
Conceded away, last 5 there1.2—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 523.412.8
Shots on target, last 58.23.2
Shots per possession0.2650.248
On-target shots per possession0.1040.065
Inside-box shots per possession0.1930.135
Share of shots from inside the box72.7%54.9%
Expected goals, last 52.830.65
Possession, last 571.4%38.2%
Corners, last 57.83.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.3050.210
On-target allowed per possession0.1190.071
Inside-box allowed per possession0.2070.119
Opponents' inside-box share68.9%59.0%
Save rate63.5%73.2%
Saves, last 52.23.0
Expected goals conceded, last 51.081.36
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy90.0%74.5%
Passes, last 5702305
Fouls, last 58.415.2
Cards, last 51.44.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record30
Home side won21
Drawn7
Away side won2
Goals, home side69
Goals, away side17
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 89.2% · Draw 7.2% · Away 3.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Eldense v Cordoba

laliga-2 · 16:30 UK
Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position1515
Position last season—10
Points this season89
Goal difference this season-2-5
Elo rating going in1,4001,438
Matches on record, all seasons92256
Recent form
Points, last 576
Goals scored, last 51.21.6
Goals conceded, last 50.82.2
Goals scored, last 101.31.4
Goals conceded, last 101.62.1
Clean sheets, last 1020
Failed to score, last 1042
Wins in a row11
Unbeaten run11
Losses in a row00
Days since last match85
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there2.01.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there1.61.8
Scored away, last 5 there——
Conceded away, last 5 there——
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 513.616.2
Shots on target, last 54.84.6
Shots per possession0.2590.291
On-target shots per possession0.0840.079
Inside-box shots per possession0.1390.195
Share of shots from inside the box52.6%66.2%
Expected goals, last 5——
Possession, last 551.6%59.2%
Corners, last 55.85.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.2000.290
On-target allowed per possession0.0820.109
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1310.186
Opponents' inside-box share68.1%61.9%
Save rate67.7%56.4%
Saves, last 53.02.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5——
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy——
Passes, last 5435439
Fouls, last 513.416.0
Cards, last 52.04.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record2
Home side won0
Drawn1
Away side won1
Goals, home side1
Goals, away side3
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 41.1% · Draw 26.0% · Away 32.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Manchester United v Tottenham

premier-league · 16:30 UK
Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position1218
Position last season317
Points this season52
Goal difference this season+0-6
Elo rating going in1,7881,629
Matches on record, all seasons613613
Recent form
Points, last 552
Goals scored, last 51.60.4
Goals conceded, last 51.61.6
Goals scored, last 101.90.8
Goals conceded, last 101.31.2
Clean sheets, last 1024
Failed to score, last 1034
Wins in a row00
Unbeaten run10
Losses in a row01
Days since last match2021
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—0.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there—1.2
Scored away, last 5 there1.2—
Conceded away, last 5 there1.0—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 522.614.2
Shots on target, last 55.83.8
Shots per possession0.3680.238
On-target shots per possession0.1110.058
Inside-box shots per possession0.2280.157
Share of shots from inside the box60.0%65.3%
Expected goals, last 53.190.76
Possession, last 559.8%60.4%
Corners, last 57.27.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.2500.296
On-target allowed per possession0.0930.081
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1780.184
Opponents' inside-box share69.0%59.1%
Save rate73.7%63.5%
Saves, last 53.22.4
Expected goals conceded, last 51.632.35
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy88.5%88.5%
Passes, last 5564539
Fouls, last 59.813.2
Cards, last 51.21.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record32
Home side won14
Drawn8
Away side won10
Goals, home side45
Goals, away side42
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 55.2% · Draw 22.5% · Away 22.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

RB Leipzig v Eintracht Frankfurt

bundesliga · 16:30 UK
Finished 6–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position89
Position last season38
Points this season65
Goal difference this season+4-1
Elo rating going in1,6641,586
Matches on record, all seasons344514
Recent form
Points, last 566
Goals scored, last 52.02.2
Goals conceded, last 51.82.4
Goals scored, last 102.01.8
Goals conceded, last 101.62.2
Clean sheets, last 1030
Failed to score, last 1010
Wins in a row00
Unbeaten run02
Losses in a row10
Days since last match2021
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there—2.6
Scored away, last 5 there1.2—
Conceded away, last 5 there2.8—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 517.814.0
Shots on target, last 56.25.2
Shots per possession0.3220.252
On-target shots per possession0.1270.097
Inside-box shots per possession0.2280.164
Share of shots from inside the box69.2%64.2%
Expected goals, last 52.601.97
Possession, last 558.0%50.8%
Corners, last 56.05.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.3040.350
On-target allowed per possession0.1100.138
Inside-box allowed per possession0.2080.236
Opponents' inside-box share67.9%67.3%
Save rate63.1%69.4%
Saves, last 53.45.2
Expected goals conceded, last 51.161.62
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy86.0%77.0%
Passes, last 5541432
Fouls, last 58.811.0
Cards, last 51.22.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record20
Home side won7
Drawn8
Away side won5
Goals, home side29
Goals, away side26
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 60.6% · Draw 19.5% · Away 20.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Feyenoord v AZ Alkmaar

eredivisie · 16:45 UK
Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position11
Position last season27
Points this season1719
Goal difference this season+18+12
Elo rating going in1,7501,673
Matches on record, all seasons546556
Recent form
Points, last 51313
Goals scored, last 54.42.4
Goals conceded, last 51.01.0
Goals scored, last 103.02.4
Goals conceded, last 100.91.2
Clean sheets, last 1043
Failed to score, last 1000
Wins in a row31
Unbeaten run1613
Losses in a row00
Days since last match2020
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there2.62.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there1.21.2
Scored away, last 5 there——
Conceded away, last 5 there——
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 521.420.0
Shots on target, last 59.68.0
Shots per possession0.3790.312
On-target shots per possession0.1480.120
Inside-box shots per possession0.2630.200
Share of shots from inside the box69.4%65.2%
Expected goals, last 52.483.37
Possession, last 556.2%61.6%
Corners, last 55.48.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.2040.219
On-target allowed per possession0.0600.083
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1170.135
Opponents' inside-box share55.1%62.5%
Save rate67.4%68.5%
Saves, last 51.61.8
Expected goals conceded, last 50.661.13
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy89.5%86.5%
Passes, last 5526582
Fouls, last 510.410.8
Cards, last 51.00.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record31
Home side won17
Drawn6
Away side won8
Goals, home side61
Goals, away side42
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 53.5% · Draw 24.2% · Away 22.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Maritimo v FC Porto

primeira-liga · 17:00 UK
Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position101
Position last season—1
Points this season821
Goal difference this season-4+15
Elo rating going in1,4881,903
Matches on record, all seasons435535
Recent form
Points, last 5215
Goals scored, last 51.02.8
Goals conceded, last 52.20.6
Goals scored, last 101.22.1
Goals conceded, last 101.80.6
Clean sheets, last 1016
Failed to score, last 1010
Wins in a row08
Unbeaten run18
Losses in a row00
Days since last match2120
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there—0.4
Scored away, last 5 there1.2—
Conceded away, last 5 there1.8—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 59.617.6
Shots on target, last 52.86.8
Shots per possession0.2610.282
On-target shots per possession0.0760.104
Inside-box shots per possession0.1680.192
Share of shots from inside the box64.9%69.5%
Expected goals, last 50.982.23
Possession, last 548.6%54.6%
Corners, last 53.67.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.2690.244
On-target allowed per possession0.0960.070
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1820.127
Opponents' inside-box share67.7%52.6%
Save rate62.2%70.2%
Saves, last 53.41.6
Expected goals conceded, last 51.750.67
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy81.0%84.5%
Passes, last 5404432
Fouls, last 515.014.6
Cards, last 51.81.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record26
Home side won3
Drawn5
Away side won18
Goals, home side16
Goals, away side51
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 9.7% · Draw 17.8% · Away 72.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Fortuna Sittard v Twente

eredivisie · 18:00 UK
Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position64
Position last season114
Points this season1316
Goal difference this season-1+8
Elo rating going in1,5301,688
Matches on record, all seasons271521
Recent form
Points, last 5913
Goals scored, last 51.62.4
Goals conceded, last 52.21.0
Goals scored, last 101.72.2
Goals conceded, last 102.01.4
Clean sheets, last 1013
Failed to score, last 1021
Wins in a row13
Unbeaten run16
Losses in a row00
Days since last match2120
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—2.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there—0.6
Scored away, last 5 there1.8—
Conceded away, last 5 there1.6—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 59.221.2
Shots on target, last 53.88.0
Shots per possession0.2690.371
On-target shots per possession0.1160.130
Inside-box shots per possession0.1470.254
Share of shots from inside the box55.5%67.0%
Expected goals, last 50.661.76
Possession, last 538.0%56.4%
Corners, last 51.87.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.3000.244
On-target allowed per possession0.0930.083
Inside-box allowed per possession0.2170.143
Opponents' inside-box share70.9%61.9%
Save rate66.3%64.3%
Saves, last 54.02.6
Expected goals conceded, last 52.910.47
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy72.0%89.0%
Passes, last 5346516
Fouls, last 59.610.4
Cards, last 52.01.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record13
Home side won3
Drawn1
Away side won9
Goals, home side14
Goals, away side26
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 15.4% · Draw 18.5% · Away 66.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Lorient v Paris FC

ligue-1 · 18:45 UK
Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position112
Position last season1011
Points this season511
Goal difference this season-1+5
Elo rating going in1,5411,621
Matches on record, all seasons45339
Recent form
Points, last 5511
Goals scored, last 51.01.6
Goals conceded, last 51.20.6
Goals scored, last 101.51.8
Goals conceded, last 101.30.8
Clean sheets, last 1044
Failed to score, last 1023
Wins in a row01
Unbeaten run06
Losses in a row10
Days since last match2121
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—2.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there—0.4
Scored away, last 5 there1.6—
Conceded away, last 5 there0.8—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 59.812.8
Shots on target, last 53.24.4
Shots per possession0.2310.282
On-target shots per possession0.0850.107
Inside-box shots per possession0.1460.195
Share of shots from inside the box62.1%67.1%
Expected goals, last 50.981.77
Possession, last 547.2%50.2%
Corners, last 52.22.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.2380.196
On-target allowed per possession0.0730.059
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1610.126
Opponents' inside-box share66.4%65.3%
Save rate70.6%70.0%
Saves, last 52.82.0
Expected goals conceded, last 51.250.47
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy86.0%89.5%
Passes, last 5464531
Fouls, last 58.813.0
Cards, last 51.01.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record2
Home side won0
Drawn1
Away side won1
Goals, home side1
Goals, away side3
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 27.6% · Draw 28.9% · Away 43.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Monaco v Toulouse

ligue-1 · 18:45 UK
Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position112
Position last season79
Points this season135
Goal difference this season+5-2
Elo rating going in1,6951,561
Matches on record, all seasons515517
Recent form
Points, last 5135
Goals scored, last 51.61.4
Goals conceded, last 50.61.8
Goals scored, last 101.81.5
Goals conceded, last 101.41.6
Clean sheets, last 1021
Failed to score, last 1013
Wins in a row11
Unbeaten run52
Losses in a row00
Days since last match2221
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there1.61.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there1.01.6
Scored away, last 5 there——
Conceded away, last 5 there——
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 510.214.8
Shots on target, last 54.64.6
Shots per possession0.2210.275
On-target shots per possession0.0940.093
Inside-box shots per possession0.1300.180
Share of shots from inside the box60.0%65.4%
Expected goals, last 51.441.88
Possession, last 545.0%52.2%
Corners, last 53.64.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.3020.261
On-target allowed per possession0.0970.092
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1810.165
Opponents' inside-box share60.6%56.9%
Save rate68.7%71.0%
Saves, last 53.83.4
Expected goals conceded, last 50.911.45
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy84.5%85.5%
Passes, last 5446480
Fouls, last 511.016.0
Cards, last 51.81.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record23
Home side won12
Drawn7
Away side won4
Goals, home side40
Goals, away side24
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 60.0% · Draw 21.9% · Away 18.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Napoli v Frosinone

serie-a · 18:45 UK
Finished 3–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position95
Position last season2—
Points this season710
Goal difference this season+1+5
Elo rating going in1,7601,503
Matches on record, all seasons613119
Recent form
Points, last 5710
Goals scored, last 51.41.8
Goals conceded, last 51.20.8
Goals scored, last 101.71.3
Goals conceded, last 100.91.0
Clean sheets, last 1065
Failed to score, last 1014
Wins in a row01
Unbeaten run24
Losses in a row00
Days since last match2020
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there—1.8
Scored away, last 5 there1.6—
Conceded away, last 5 there0.8—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 512.417.0
Shots on target, last 53.65.6
Shots per possession0.2570.395
On-target shots per possession0.0830.133
Inside-box shots per possession0.1740.249
Share of shots from inside the box63.4%63.4%
Expected goals, last 51.181.38
Possession, last 548.6%41.4%
Corners, last 55.05.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.2640.290
On-target allowed per possession0.0850.074
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1690.172
Opponents' inside-box share63.6%58.1%
Save rate72.8%71.6%
Saves, last 53.24.2
Expected goals conceded, last 50.701.98
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy88.5%72.8%
Passes, last 5441281
Fouls, last 59.415.8
Cards, last 50.82.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record6
Home side won5
Drawn1
Away side won0
Goals, home side20
Goals, away side4
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 65.6% · Draw 19.1% · Away 15.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Paris Saint Germain v Le Mans

ligue-1 · 18:45 UK
Finished 3–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position68
Position last season1—
Points this season86
Goal difference this season+1+0
Elo rating going in1,8031,588
Matches on record, all seasons5905
Recent form
Points, last 586
Goals scored, last 51.61.8
Goals conceded, last 51.41.8
Goals scored, last 101.7—
Goals conceded, last 101.1—
Clean sheets, last 1040
Failed to score, last 1000
Wins in a row21
Unbeaten run23
Losses in a row00
Days since last match2021
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there—1.7
Scored away, last 5 there1.6—
Conceded away, last 5 there1.4—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 521.210.4
Shots on target, last 57.25.0
Shots per possession0.2860.229
On-target shots per possession0.0960.108
Inside-box shots per possession0.1620.139
Share of shots from inside the box57.5%58.7%
Expected goals, last 51.601.84
Possession, last 566.0%46.4%
Corners, last 56.02.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.3020.254
On-target allowed per possession0.1200.086
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1950.199
Opponents' inside-box share62.5%76.3%
Save rate68.8%64.4%
Saves, last 52.02.8
Expected goals conceded, last 51.082.16
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy90.5%75.0%
Passes, last 5717389
Fouls, last 56.413.8
Cards, last 51.42.2
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 87.5% · Draw 7.7% · Away 4.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Stade Brestois 29 v Angers

ligue-1 · 18:45 UK
Finished 5–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position116
Position last season1213
Points this season57
Goal difference this season-1+1
Elo rating going in1,5541,485
Matches on record, all seasons363367
Recent form
Points, last 557
Goals scored, last 51.41.2
Goals conceded, last 51.61.0
Goals scored, last 101.21.0
Goals conceded, last 101.91.4
Clean sheets, last 1002
Failed to score, last 1033
Wins in a row01
Unbeaten run02
Losses in a row20
Days since last match2021
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—0.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there—1.6
Scored away, last 5 there1.0—
Conceded away, last 5 there2.0—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 516.215.0
Shots on target, last 55.43.0
Shots per possession0.2960.271
On-target shots per possession0.0960.071
Inside-box shots per possession0.1890.179
Share of shots from inside the box63.1%65.9%
Expected goals, last 52.201.81
Possession, last 546.6%51.2%
Corners, last 54.47.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.2510.309
On-target allowed per possession0.0900.124
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1480.203
Opponents' inside-box share58.5%65.6%
Save rate63.8%76.9%
Saves, last 53.05.2
Expected goals conceded, last 50.911.27
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy80.5%82.5%
Passes, last 5383427
Fouls, last 514.410.8
Cards, last 51.21.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record12
Home side won5
Drawn3
Away side won4
Goals, home side16
Goals, away side10
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 47.5% · Draw 26.2% · Away 26.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Ajax v NEC Nijmegen

eredivisie · 19:00 UK
Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position411
Position last season53
Points this season148
Goal difference this season+12-1
Elo rating going in1,7021,593
Matches on record, all seasons544388
Recent form
Points, last 5105
Goals scored, last 53.41.4
Goals conceded, last 51.42.0
Goals scored, last 102.31.6
Goals conceded, last 100.91.7
Clean sheets, last 1050
Failed to score, last 1021
Wins in a row00
Unbeaten run31
Losses in a row00
Days since last match2120
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there2.01.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there1.61.8
Scored away, last 5 there——
Conceded away, last 5 there——
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 524.811.8
Shots on target, last 59.23.0
Shots per possession0.3680.294
On-target shots per possession0.1200.085
Inside-box shots per possession0.2450.182
Share of shots from inside the box65.5%60.8%
Expected goals, last 52.132.01
Possession, last 565.6%57.6%
Corners, last 57.84.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.2570.279
On-target allowed per possession0.1040.112
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1790.200
Opponents' inside-box share68.3%75.1%
Save rate71.1%63.0%
Saves, last 52.63.0
Expected goals conceded, last 51.131.98
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy89.0%67.0%
Passes, last 5649472
Fouls, last 58.610.4
Cards, last 51.81.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record22
Home side won14
Drawn7
Away side won1
Goals, home side56
Goals, away side21
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 72.6% · Draw 15.3% · Away 12.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Celta de Vigo II v Real Sociedad II

laliga-2 · 19:00 UK
Finished 4–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position1714
Position last season—15
Points this season88
Goal difference this season-4-2
Elo rating going in1,4411,385
Matches on record, all seasons892
Recent form
Points, last 544
Goals scored, last 51.01.4
Goals conceded, last 52.01.8
Goals scored, last 10—1.3
Goals conceded, last 10—1.7
Clean sheets, last 1020
Failed to score, last 1032
Wins in a row00
Unbeaten run00
Losses in a row13
Days since last match66
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—0.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there—1.4
Scored away, last 5 there1.0—
Conceded away, last 5 there1.2—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 513.811.0
Shots on target, last 54.63.2
Shots per possession0.2560.275
On-target shots per possession0.0980.092
Inside-box shots per possession0.1550.169
Share of shots from inside the box58.7%60.9%
Expected goals, last 5——
Possession, last 553.0%39.8%
Corners, last 54.62.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.2860.279
On-target allowed per possession0.1150.083
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1930.187
Opponents' inside-box share69.4%64.9%
Save rate65.0%65.2%
Saves, last 53.63.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5——
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy——
Passes, last 5474330
Fouls, last 511.618.4
Cards, last 52.83.4
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 41.2% · Draw 26.8% · Away 32.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Real Madrid v Villarreal

la-liga · 19:00 UK
Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position38
Position last season23
Points this season158
Goal difference this season+10+1
Elo rating going in1,8361,700
Matches on record, all seasons615577
Recent form
Points, last 596
Goals scored, last 52.41.8
Goals conceded, last 51.21.6
Goals scored, last 102.52.0
Goals conceded, last 101.01.8
Clean sheets, last 1030
Failed to score, last 1012
Wins in a row02
Unbeaten run02
Losses in a row10
Days since last match2020
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—2.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there—2.0
Scored away, last 5 there1.4—
Conceded away, last 5 there1.2—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 518.217.2
Shots on target, last 56.86.6
Shots per possession0.2920.242
On-target shots per possession0.1170.103
Inside-box shots per possession0.2020.163
Share of shots from inside the box68.8%67.4%
Expected goals, last 52.341.28
Possession, last 550.8%65.0%
Corners, last 57.27.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.2720.314
On-target allowed per possession0.0870.102
Inside-box allowed per possession0.1560.192
Opponents' inside-box share57.6%64.6%
Save rate68.9%64.0%
Saves, last 53.42.2
Expected goals conceded, last 50.720.81
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy92.0%89.0%
Passes, last 5510621
Fouls, last 58.49.6
Cards, last 51.61.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record30
Home side won15
Drawn11
Away side won4
Goals, home side61
Goals, away side37
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 70.9% · Draw 15.8% · Away 13.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Academico Viseu v Estoril

primeira-liga · 19:30 UK
Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.
What the model sawHomeAway
Where they stand
League position618
Position last season—10
Points this season112
Goal difference this season+0-7
Elo rating going in1,6311,518
Matches on record, all seasons7373
Recent form
Points, last 5101
Goals scored, last 51.40.4
Goals conceded, last 51.21.4
Goals scored, last 10—0.6
Goals conceded, last 10—1.5
Clean sheets, last 1021
Failed to score, last 1024
Wins in a row30
Unbeaten run30
Losses in a row02
Days since last match2020
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there—0.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there—1.6
Scored away, last 5 there1.8—
Conceded away, last 5 there1.0—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 59.413.2
Shots on target, last 53.44.6
Shots per possession0.2000.259
On-target shots per possession0.0710.091
Inside-box shots per possession0.1380.155
Share of shots from inside the box66.3%59.5%
Expected goals, last 51.320.76
Possession, last 546.0%46.4%
Corners, last 52.64.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession0.3140.247
On-target allowed per possession0.0960.074
Inside-box allowed per possession0.2200.158
Opponents' inside-box share70.1%66.7%
Save rate71.4%57.8%
Saves, last 53.62.8
Expected goals conceded, last 51.381.36
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy82.5%78.0%
Passes, last 5383411
Fouls, last 513.410.8
Cards, last 53.02.4
The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 41.5% · Draw 28.1% · Away 30.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.