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The data behind the ratings

Sunday 11 October 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

Utrecht v Willem II

eredivisie · 10:15 UK

Finished 3–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	15	18
Position last season	6	—
Points this season	5	2
Goal difference this season	-13	-14
Elo rating going in	1,623	1,382
Matches on record, all seasons	572	379
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	2
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	3.6	2.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	2.6	2.7
Clean sheets, last 10	2	0
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	2
Days since last match	21	22
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.8	12.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	3.2
Shots per possession	0.297	0.294
On-target shots per possession	0.105	0.081
Inside-box shots per possession	0.210	0.195
Share of shots from inside the box	71.4%	67.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.11	1.70
Possession, last 5	41.2%	41.4%
Corners, last 5	3.8	5.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.315	0.300
On-target allowed per possession	0.122	0.108
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.188	0.204
Opponents' inside-box share	61.7%	68.0%
Save rate	62.3%	62.3%
Saves, last 5	4.6	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.38	1.35
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	76.5%	77.0%
Passes, last 5	399	388
Fouls, last 5	16.2	7.8
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	22
Home side won	15
Drawn	2
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	50
Goals, away side	26

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 63.0% · Draw 20.6% · Away 16.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Como v AS Roma

serie-a · 10:30 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	6	1
Position last season	4	3
Points this season	10	13
Goal difference this season	+3	+11
Elo rating going in	1,721	1,775
Matches on record, all seasons	81	613
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	13
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	2.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	0.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	2.7
Goals conceded, last 10	0.7	0.5
Clean sheets, last 10	4	7
Failed to score, last 10	2	0
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	12
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	21	22
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	23.2	20.6
Shots on target, last 5	7.2	7.0
Shots per possession	0.305	0.301
On-target shots per possession	0.096	0.111
Inside-box shots per possession	0.208	0.221
Share of shots from inside the box	70.3%	73.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.99	2.43
Possession, last 5	61.6%	57.4%
Corners, last 5	8.0	5.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.288	0.200
On-target allowed per possession	0.068	0.068
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.188	0.118
Opponents' inside-box share	66.5%	60.4%
Save rate	70.4%	74.3%
Saves, last 5	2.2	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.63	1.04
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	88.8%	85.8%
Passes, last 5	590	547
Fouls, last 5	7.4	13.0
Cards, last 5	0.8	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	2
Drawn	0
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	5
Goals, away side	4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 38.0% · Draw 27.1% · Away 34.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Konyaspor v Başakşehir

super-lig · 10:30 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	13	12
Position last season	9	5
Points this season	4	7
Goal difference this season	-4	-1
Elo rating going in	1,569	1,681
Matches on record, all seasons	466	506
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	4
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	2.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	2	4
Failed to score, last 10	4	1
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	2	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	23	22
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.2	12.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.4	4.2
Shots per possession	0.264	0.264
On-target shots per possession	0.086	0.093
Inside-box shots per possession	0.174	0.178
Share of shots from inside the box	67.4%	65.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.05	1.42
Possession, last 5	48.4%	54.4%
Corners, last 5	2.8	3.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.304	0.266
On-target allowed per possession	0.116	0.091
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.182	0.146
Opponents' inside-box share	58.6%	52.3%
Save rate	71.2%	69.3%
Saves, last 5	3.8	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.10	1.93
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.0%	86.2%
Passes, last 5	388	481
Fouls, last 5	13.6	12.4
Cards, last 5	3.2	2.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	24
Home side won	5
Drawn	8
Away side won	11
Goals, home side	22
Goals, away side	36

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 35.0% · Draw 27.5% · Away 37.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Motherwell v Celtic

scottish-prem · 11:00 UK

Finished 0–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	8	1
Position last season	4	1
Points this season	8	18
Goal difference this season	-2	+10
Elo rating going in	1,567	1,796
Matches on record, all seasons	604	602
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	12
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	0.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	2.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	0.8
Clean sheets, last 10	3	3
Failed to score, last 10	3	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	3	1
Days since last match	22	21
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.4	17.8
Shots on target, last 5	5.4	7.6
Shots per possession	0.250	0.288
On-target shots per possession	0.081	0.116
Inside-box shots per possession	0.166	0.209
Share of shots from inside the box	66.0%	72.5%
Expected goals, last 5	2.17	2.87
Possession, last 5	60.8%	58.4%
Corners, last 5	7.0	10.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.319	0.283
On-target allowed per possession	0.097	0.096
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.211	0.185
Opponents' inside-box share	61.4%	68.0%
Save rate	57.5%	74.0%
Saves, last 5	3.0	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.27	0.53
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	91.0%	90.0%
Passes, last 5	617	574
Fouls, last 5	9.6	11.4
Cards, last 5	1.2	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	54
Home side won	5
Drawn	7
Away side won	42
Goals, home side	40
Goals, away side	132

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 20.4% · Draw 20.5% · Away 59.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Southampton v Portsmouth

championship · 11:00 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	18
Position last season	4	18
Points this season	14	8
Goal difference this season	+9	-1
Elo rating going in	1,618	1,487
Matches on record, all seasons	607	506
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	5
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	2.1	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	3
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	22	22
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.5	15.0
Shots on target, last 5	5.0	4.0
Shots per possession	0.284	0.258
On-target shots per possession	0.082	0.084
Inside-box shots per possession	0.197	0.151
Share of shots from inside the box	68.9%	52.3%
Expected goals, last 5	—	1.38
Possession, last 5	56.5%	49.2%
Corners, last 5	5.0	7.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.362	0.250
On-target allowed per possession	0.092	0.092
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.262	0.190
Opponents' inside-box share	70.6%	76.0%
Save rate	69.1%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	3.0	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	—	0.61
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	76.0%
Passes, last 5	541	350
Fouls, last 5	8.2	11.2
Cards, last 5	0.8	0.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	0
Drawn	4
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	4
Goals, away side	4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 60.2% · Draw 22.2% · Away 17.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Elche v Celta Vigo

la-liga · 12:00 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	17	11
Position last season	13	6
Points this season	5	7
Goal difference this season	-6	+2
Elo rating going in	1,558	1,618
Matches on record, all seasons	449	539
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	6
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	2.0	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	1	4
Failed to score, last 10	1	3
Wins in a row	1	1
Unbeaten run	1	4
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	23	22
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.2	12.2
Shots on target, last 5	5.4	4.2
Shots per possession	0.191	0.189
On-target shots per possession	0.080	0.075
Inside-box shots per possession	0.117	0.107
Share of shots from inside the box	61.4%	53.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.06	0.80
Possession, last 5	48.4%	52.0%
Corners, last 5	4.4	3.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.277	0.287
On-target allowed per possession	0.098	0.093
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.191	0.163
Opponents' inside-box share	68.1%	54.9%
Save rate	60.7%	73.4%
Saves, last 5	2.8	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.50	1.65
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	87.0%	86.5%
Passes, last 5	438	520
Fouls, last 5	14.0	10.2
Cards, last 5	3.0	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	12
Home side won	4
Drawn	2
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	9
Goals, away side	13

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 33.7% · Draw 29.0% · Away 37.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

FC Andorra v Castellón

laliga-2 · 12:00 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	16	2
Position last season	13	6
Points this season	6	20
Goal difference this season	-3	+12
Elo rating going in	1,414	1,545
Matches on record, all seasons	133	136
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	13
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	2.4
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	0.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.8
Goals conceded, last 10	2.0	0.7
Clean sheets, last 10	0	5
Failed to score, last 10	4	1
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	8
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	15	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.6	16.6
Shots on target, last 5	5.0	5.8
Shots per possession	0.248	0.234
On-target shots per possession	0.082	0.080
Inside-box shots per possession	0.144	0.156
Share of shots from inside the box	58.4%	67.2%
Expected goals, last 5	—	—
Possession, last 5	63.2%	63.8%
Corners, last 5	6.0	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.280	0.262
On-target allowed per possession	0.110	0.080
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.182	0.186
Opponents' inside-box share	63.6%	70.8%
Save rate	58.8%	69.4%
Saves, last 5	1.8	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	—	—
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	90.0%	—
Passes, last 5	511	592
Fouls, last 5	16.8	10.4
Cards, last 5	3.0	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	0
Drawn	0
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	1
Goals, away side	5

PEC Zwolle v Cambuur

eredivisie · 12:30 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	16	15
Position last season	15	—
Points this season	4	5
Goal difference this season	-14	-9
Elo rating going in	1,488	1,365
Matches on record, all seasons	445	179
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	3.0	2.4
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	2.5	2.1
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	4	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	3
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	23	22
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	1.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	2.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.6	10.6
Shots on target, last 5	2.8	4.0
Shots per possession	0.207	0.298
On-target shots per possession	0.068	0.102
Inside-box shots per possession	0.113	0.203
Share of shots from inside the box	53.4%	69.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.42	0.77
Possession, last 5	44.0%	42.6%
Corners, last 5	4.4	2.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.326	0.278
On-target allowed per possession	0.114	0.111
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.206	0.186
Opponents' inside-box share	63.2%	65.6%
Save rate	64.3%	64.4%
Saves, last 5	3.8	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.38	2.17
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	74.5%	82.5%
Passes, last 5	357	344
Fouls, last 5	11.0	14.0
Cards, last 5	1.2	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	3
Drawn	1
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	17
Goals, away side	14

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 45.8% · Draw 24.9% · Away 29.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Telstar v ADO Den Haag

eredivisie · 12:30 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	12	17
Position last season	14	—
Points this season	5	2
Goal difference this season	-7	-10
Elo rating going in	1,535	1,404
Matches on record, all seasons	47	391
Recent form
Points, last 5	2	2
Goals scored, last 5	0.4	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	0.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	2.7
Clean sheets, last 10	2	0
Failed to score, last 10	4	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	21	22
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	8.0	12.6
Shots on target, last 5	2.2	4.0
Shots per possession	0.213	0.242
On-target shots per possession	0.072	0.064
Inside-box shots per possession	0.160	0.136
Share of shots from inside the box	75.6%	56.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.13	0.62
Possession, last 5	39.2%	48.8%
Corners, last 5	3.8	3.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.289	0.275
On-target allowed per possession	0.112	0.136
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.194	0.189
Opponents' inside-box share	67.3%	69.2%
Save rate	74.3%	62.6%
Saves, last 5	5.2	5.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.13	1.70
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	83.0%	80.0%
Passes, last 5	352	409
Fouls, last 5	9.8	14.4
Cards, last 5	1.6	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	2
Drawn	0
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	3
Goals, away side	0

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 47.1% · Draw 25.4% · Away 27.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Aberdeen v ST Johnstone

scottish-prem · 13:00 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	6	6
Position last season	9	—
Points this season	8	8
Goal difference this season	-1	-1
Elo rating going in	1,488	1,418
Matches on record, all seasons	604	568
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	3	0
Failed to score, last 10	5	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	3	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	22	22
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.8	10.0
Shots on target, last 5	2.4	3.8
Shots per possession	0.220	0.222
On-target shots per possession	0.058	0.070
Inside-box shots per possession	0.133	0.140
Share of shots from inside the box	60.9%	63.9%
Expected goals, last 5	0.45	1.16
Possession, last 5	43.4%	49.4%
Corners, last 5	5.6	3.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.274	0.263
On-target allowed per possession	0.096	0.089
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.171	0.165
Opponents' inside-box share	62.6%	64.0%
Save rate	72.8%	74.1%
Saves, last 5	4.6	4.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.84	1.71
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	75.0%	84.0%
Passes, last 5	373	455
Fouls, last 5	12.8	12.8
Cards, last 5	3.4	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	53
Home side won	22
Drawn	18
Away side won	13
Goals, home side	53
Goals, away side	43

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 44.4% · Draw 28.9% · Away 26.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest

premier-league · 13:00 UK

Finished 3–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	15	12
Position last season	15	16
Points this season	4	5
Goal difference this season	-5	-1
Elo rating going in	1,687	1,697
Matches on record, all seasons	594	666
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	2.3	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	4	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	21	22
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.6	16.4
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	3.4
Shots per possession	0.258	0.311
On-target shots per possession	0.084	0.098
Inside-box shots per possession	0.186	0.209
Share of shots from inside the box	74.4%	68.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.30	1.47
Possession, last 5	43.2%	47.2%
Corners, last 5	2.4	3.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.286	0.277
On-target allowed per possession	0.096	0.079
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.210	0.160
Opponents' inside-box share	72.6%	58.3%
Save rate	62.6%	73.7%
Saves, last 5	3.4	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.30	1.05
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.5%	73.5%
Passes, last 5	408	370
Fouls, last 5	9.6	15.0
Cards, last 5	1.4	2.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	12
Home side won	1
Drawn	8
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	9
Goals, away side	13

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 34.2% · Draw 28.1% · Away 37.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Gaziantep FK v Çorum FK

super-lig · 13:00 UK

Finished 0–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	8	11
Position last season	12	—
Points this season	8	7
Goal difference this season	+0	+1
Elo rating going in	1,556	1,626
Matches on record, all seasons	262	6
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	6
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	2.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	—
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	—
Clean sheets, last 10	2	1
Failed to score, last 10	4	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	1
Days since last match	22	22
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.3
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.5	14.0
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	5.4
Shots per possession	0.269	0.243
On-target shots per possession	0.075	0.100
Inside-box shots per possession	0.158	0.125
Share of shots from inside the box	58.6%	51.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.13	1.05
Possession, last 5	50.2%	58.0%
Corners, last 5	3.8	5.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.292	0.325
On-target allowed per possession	0.084	0.116
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.199	0.209
Opponents' inside-box share	65.0%	65.0%
Save rate	61.9%	66.1%
Saves, last 5	2.0	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.44	1.31
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.2%	87.0%
Passes, last 5	409	535
Fouls, last 5	12.2	15.2
Cards, last 5	1.4	2.6

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 36.0% · Draw 28.6% · Away 35.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Hull City v Everton

premier-league · 13:00 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	7	5
Position last season	6	13
Points this season	8	9
Goal difference this season	+2	+3
Elo rating going in	1,587	1,721
Matches on record, all seasons	677	613
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	9
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	0.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	0.7	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	6	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	5
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	22	22
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.0	16.0
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	4.6
Shots per possession	0.312	0.329
On-target shots per possession	0.115	0.108
Inside-box shots per possession	0.194	0.230
Share of shots from inside the box	62.4%	69.8%
Expected goals, last 5	0.99	1.44
Possession, last 5	32.2%	43.8%
Corners, last 5	3.4	5.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.210	0.263
On-target allowed per possession	0.064	0.068
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.128	0.182
Opponents' inside-box share	62.8%	68.8%
Save rate	73.1%	65.0%
Saves, last 5	3.4	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.54	2.09
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	68.5%	80.0%
Passes, last 5	278	408
Fouls, last 5	10.0	8.0
Cards, last 5	3.4	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	1
Drawn	2
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	6
Goals, away side	11

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 26.5% · Draw 28.5% · Away 45.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Lazio v Monza

serie-a · 13:00 UK

Finished 3–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	14
Position last season	9	—
Points this season	13	4
Goal difference this season	+5	-4
Elo rating going in	1,701	1,445
Matches on record, all seasons	613	119
Recent form
Points, last 5	13	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	0.6	2.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	2.4
Clean sheets, last 10	3	0
Failed to score, last 10	2	3
Wins in a row	1	1
Unbeaten run	6	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	22	23
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.6	14.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	6.0
Shots per possession	0.239	0.244
On-target shots per possession	0.093	0.098
Inside-box shots per possession	0.144	0.163
Share of shots from inside the box	61.3%	67.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.52	1.74
Possession, last 5	46.4%	46.0%
Corners, last 5	4.4	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.254	0.268
On-target allowed per possession	0.100	0.100
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.166	0.186
Opponents' inside-box share	67.4%	72.7%
Save rate	74.2%	57.5%
Saves, last 5	4.4	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.22	1.18
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	85.4%	80.5%
Passes, last 5	434	385
Fouls, last 5	13.8	13.2
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	4
Drawn	2
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	12
Goals, away side	4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 57.7% · Draw 24.3% · Away 18.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Lecce v Bologna

serie-a · 13:00 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	12	17
Position last season	17	8
Points this season	6	2
Goal difference this season	-5	-3
Elo rating going in	1,531	1,633
Matches on record, all seasons	271	575
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	2
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	5	5
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	21	22
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	8.4	13.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.4	3.2
Shots per possession	0.248	0.223
On-target shots per possession	0.105	0.063
Inside-box shots per possession	0.169	0.139
Share of shots from inside the box	67.2%	61.0%
Expected goals, last 5	0.94	0.97
Possession, last 5	38.6%	52.2%
Corners, last 5	3.4	4.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.241	0.237
On-target allowed per possession	0.105	0.070
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.171	0.154
Opponents' inside-box share	71.8%	64.5%
Save rate	72.8%	64.8%
Saves, last 5	5.4	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.36	0.85
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	77.4%	85.5%
Passes, last 5	356	484
Fouls, last 5	12.6	14.6
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	14
Home side won	1
Drawn	4
Away side won	9
Goals, home side	11
Goals, away side	24

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 20.9% · Draw 29.3% · Away 49.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Nice v Strasbourg

ligue-1 · 13:00 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	14	6
Position last season	16	8
Points this season	5	7
Goal difference this season	-3	+0
Elo rating going in	1,552	1,629
Matches on record, all seasons	593	324
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	7
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	2.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	2.0
Clean sheets, last 10	3	0
Failed to score, last 10	5	1
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	21	22
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.6	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	2.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	2.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.2	11.6
Shots on target, last 5	3.0	4.8
Shots per possession	0.232	0.234
On-target shots per possession	0.072	0.100
Inside-box shots per possession	0.156	0.150
Share of shots from inside the box	66.1%	63.6%
Expected goals, last 5	0.74	0.93
Possession, last 5	57.2%	46.4%
Corners, last 5	5.4	1.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.268	0.354
On-target allowed per possession	0.084	0.125
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.159	0.237
Opponents' inside-box share	54.7%	66.2%
Save rate	68.4%	70.0%
Saves, last 5	3.2	4.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.81	2.39
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	88.5%	85.5%
Passes, last 5	566	454
Fouls, last 5	8.8	11.8
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	17
Home side won	5
Drawn	5
Away side won	7
Goals, home side	17
Goals, away side	22

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 40.6% · Draw 26.3% · Away 33.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

1. FC Köln v Borussia Mönchengladbach

bundesliga · 13:30 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	12	18
Position last season	14	12
Points this season	4	0
Goal difference this season	-3	-10
Elo rating going in	1,477	1,505
Matches on record, all seasons	414	548
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	3
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	2.8	3.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	2.3	2.1
Clean sheets, last 10	0	3
Failed to score, last 10	0	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	4
Days since last match	22	22
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.6	14.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	4.6
Shots per possession	0.345	0.274
On-target shots per possession	0.113	0.082
Inside-box shots per possession	0.243	0.195
Share of shots from inside the box	69.6%	71.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.34	1.05
Possession, last 5	43.2%	47.2%
Corners, last 5	6.4	5.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.256	0.319
On-target allowed per possession	0.098	0.150
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.172	0.231
Opponents' inside-box share	64.6%	72.0%
Save rate	56.7%	72.0%
Saves, last 5	3.4	5.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.40	2.79
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.0%	84.5%
Passes, last 5	415	399
Fouls, last 5	9.2	14.0
Cards, last 5	1.8	3.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	24
Home side won	7
Drawn	4
Away side won	13
Goals, home side	31
Goals, away side	47

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 45.7% · Draw 25.3% · Away 29.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Almeria v Leganes

laliga-2 · 14:15 UK

Finished 3–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	10
Position last season	3	16
Points this season	18	11
Goal difference this season	+8	-5
Elo rating going in	1,547	1,435
Matches on record, all seasons	544	410
Recent form
Points, last 5	15	4
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	0.6	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	0.7
Goals conceded, last 10	0.7	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	5	4
Failed to score, last 10	3	5
Wins in a row	5	0
Unbeaten run	5	0
Losses in a row	0	2
Days since last match	8	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.2	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.0	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	0.4
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.4
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.4	13.6
Shots on target, last 5	5.2	3.8
Shots per possession	0.237	0.237
On-target shots per possession	0.078	0.084
Inside-box shots per possession	0.151	0.132
Share of shots from inside the box	62.1%	55.5%
Expected goals, last 5	—	—
Possession, last 5	53.0%	49.8%
Corners, last 5	3.0	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.270	0.310
On-target allowed per possession	0.069	0.094
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.180	0.195
Opponents' inside-box share	69.4%	61.8%
Save rate	76.3%	70.0%
Saves, last 5	2.6	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	—	—
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	467	420
Fouls, last 5	15.6	16.2
Cards, last 5	2.4	3.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	3
Drawn	2
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	10
Goals, away side	6

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 58.0% · Draw 23.2% · Away 18.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Real Sociedad v Deportivo La Coruna

la-liga · 14:15 UK

Finished 3–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	8	7
Position last season	10	2
Points this season	10	10
Goal difference this season	-4	+2
Elo rating going in	1,610	1,553
Matches on record, all seasons	615	405
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	8
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.9	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	1	1
Failed to score, last 10	3	1
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	21	21
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.0	11.4
Shots on target, last 5	6.0	4.0
Shots per possession	0.241	0.239
On-target shots per possession	0.093	0.096
Inside-box shots per possession	0.154	0.170
Share of shots from inside the box	63.5%	67.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.66	1.42
Possession, last 5	48.8%	48.4%
Corners, last 5	7.8	5.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.328	0.224
On-target allowed per possession	0.120	0.072
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.200	0.117
Opponents' inside-box share	60.2%	53.0%
Save rate	71.2%	72.3%
Saves, last 5	3.6	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.76	1.33
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	82.0%	84.0%
Passes, last 5	439	454
Fouls, last 5	13.4	11.6
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	12
Home side won	5
Drawn	5
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	20
Goals, away side	13

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 59.9% · Draw 23.3% · Away 16.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Rio Ave v Nacional

primeira-liga · 14:30 UK

Finished 3–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	16	15
Position last season	13	14
Points this season	4	4
Goal difference this season	-10	-8
Elo rating going in	1,525	1,461
Matches on record, all seasons	503	365
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	0
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	2.4	2.6
Goals scored, last 10	0.7	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	2.0	1.9
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	6	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	5
Days since last match	22	22
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	6.2	9.0
Shots on target, last 5	3.0	2.6
Shots per possession	0.203	0.213
On-target shots per possession	0.061	0.059
Inside-box shots per possession	0.112	0.121
Share of shots from inside the box	51.5%	53.0%
Expected goals, last 5	0.58	0.62
Possession, last 5	43.2%	49.6%
Corners, last 5	2.8	3.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.308	0.322
On-target allowed per possession	0.096	0.106
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.203	0.178
Opponents' inside-box share	65.9%	56.0%
Save rate	63.9%	64.3%
Saves, last 5	3.6	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.52	2.62
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.0%	80.0%
Passes, last 5	361	422
Fouls, last 5	10.8	9.0
Cards, last 5	1.4	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	22
Home side won	8
Drawn	8
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	25
Goals, away side	27

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 40.8% · Draw 30.1% · Away 29.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Excelsior v Groningen

eredivisie · 14:45 UK

Finished 1–5. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	6	6
Position last season	13	9
Points this season	11	11
Goal difference this season	+6	+2
Elo rating going in	1,517	1,538
Matches on record, all seasons	357	527
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	5
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	2.2	1.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	2	1
Failed to score, last 10	0	1
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	1	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	22	23
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	2.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.0	14.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.2	3.8
Shots per possession	0.281	0.273
On-target shots per possession	0.111	0.108
Inside-box shots per possession	0.189	0.177
Share of shots from inside the box	68.3%	63.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.17	1.28
Possession, last 5	38.0%	48.6%
Corners, last 5	4.2	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.266	0.271
On-target allowed per possession	0.077	0.098
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.175	0.190
Opponents' inside-box share	64.1%	67.5%
Save rate	66.2%	65.3%
Saves, last 5	2.8	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.97	2.65
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	79.0%	84.0%
Passes, last 5	352	436
Fouls, last 5	12.8	6.8
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	18
Home side won	5
Drawn	4
Away side won	9
Goals, home side	17
Goals, away side	29

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 37.1% · Draw 26.1% · Away 36.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Rennes v Auxerre

ligue-1 · 15:15 UK

Finished 4–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	5	9
Position last season	6	15
Points this season	10	6
Goal difference this season	-1	-5
Elo rating going in	1,650	1,523
Matches on record, all seasons	591	189
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	6
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	2.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.8	1.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.8	1.9
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	0
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	0	2
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	22	21
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.2	11.8
Shots on target, last 5	5.4	5.0
Shots per possession	0.331	0.272
On-target shots per possession	0.111	0.125
Inside-box shots per possession	0.225	0.173
Share of shots from inside the box	66.4%	60.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.87	1.54
Possession, last 5	51.0%	45.6%
Corners, last 5	5.0	6.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.359	0.229
On-target allowed per possession	0.126	0.096
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.237	0.167
Opponents' inside-box share	61.9%	72.4%
Save rate	65.8%	62.1%
Saves, last 5	3.6	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.45	3.04
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.5%	84.0%
Passes, last 5	469	383
Fouls, last 5	13.2	14.6
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	3
Drawn	4
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	13
Goals, away side	10

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 66.8% · Draw 18.8% · Away 14.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Liverpool v Manchester City

premier-league · 15:30 UK

Finished 0–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	6	1
Position last season	5	2
Points this season	9	15
Goal difference this season	+3	+8
Elo rating going in	1,821	1,927
Matches on record, all seasons	613	613
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	15
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	2.6
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	2.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	3	4
Failed to score, last 10	1	0
Wins in a row	1	5
Unbeaten run	6	5
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	21	21
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.2	13.6
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	5.4
Shots per possession	0.252	0.253
On-target shots per possession	0.083	0.085
Inside-box shots per possession	0.155	0.171
Share of shots from inside the box	61.0%	67.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.92	1.90
Possession, last 5	59.2%	63.2%
Corners, last 5	4.0	6.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.295	0.304
On-target allowed per possession	0.107	0.106
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.201	0.211
Opponents' inside-box share	67.1%	69.0%
Save rate	67.2%	69.6%
Saves, last 5	2.8	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.86	0.60
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	86.5%	91.0%
Passes, last 5	513	623
Fouls, last 5	13.0	10.4
Cards, last 5	2.4	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	11
Drawn	10
Away side won	11
Goals, home side	47
Goals, away side	56

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 31.8% · Draw 25.2% · Away 43.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

SC Freiburg v FC Schalke 04

bundesliga · 15:30 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	10
Position last season	7	—
Points this season	10	5
Goal difference this season	+9	-1
Elo rating going in	1,613	1,463
Matches on record, all seasons	514	412
Recent form
Points, last 5	13	5
Goals scored, last 5	3.2	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	2.2	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	2.3
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	5
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	5	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	22	21
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.4	12.4
Shots on target, last 5	6.2	4.2
Shots per possession	0.268	0.294
On-target shots per possession	0.096	0.110
Inside-box shots per possession	0.175	0.194
Share of shots from inside the box	65.0%	65.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.67	1.39
Possession, last 5	51.0%	38.6%
Corners, last 5	4.4	3.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.241	0.304
On-target allowed per possession	0.068	0.132
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.156	0.216
Opponents' inside-box share	66.2%	70.6%
Save rate	64.2%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	2.2	6.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.86	3.08
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	85.0%	73.0%
Passes, last 5	440	335
Fouls, last 5	10.8	8.4
Cards, last 5	1.4	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	22
Home side won	10
Drawn	4
Away side won	8
Goals, home side	33
Goals, away side	21

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 58.5% · Draw 24.4% · Away 17.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Beşiktaş v Kocaelispor

super-lig · 16:00 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	3
Position last season	4	11
Points this season	12	12
Goal difference this season	+7	+3
Elo rating going in	1,718	1,606
Matches on record, all seasons	540	40
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	12
Goals scored, last 5	2.6	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	0.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.9	0.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	0.8
Clean sheets, last 10	4	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	5
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	21	22
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.6	13.2
Shots on target, last 5	6.6	4.0
Shots per possession	0.294	0.205
On-target shots per possession	0.104	0.053
Inside-box shots per possession	0.183	0.125
Share of shots from inside the box	61.2%	61.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.99	0.97
Possession, last 5	62.8%	46.8%
Corners, last 5	8.4	3.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.304	0.293
On-target allowed per possession	0.100	0.067
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.152	0.153
Opponents' inside-box share	44.6%	48.3%
Save rate	67.3%	75.3%
Saves, last 5	1.8	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.72	1.17
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	87.8%	80.2%
Passes, last 5	532	412
Fouls, last 5	12.4	11.8
Cards, last 5	2.6	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	2
Drawn	0
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	4
Goals, away side	1

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 75.5% · Draw 15.9% · Away 8.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Sassuolo v AC Milan

serie-a · 16:00 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	9	5
Position last season	11	5
Points this season	7	11
Goal difference this season	+0	+6
Elo rating going in	1,571	1,735
Matches on record, all seasons	461	613
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	11
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	5
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	23	21
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.2	12.8
Shots on target, last 5	7.0	4.2
Shots per possession	0.286	0.227
On-target shots per possession	0.107	0.076
Inside-box shots per possession	0.177	0.153
Share of shots from inside the box	62.8%	63.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.58	1.69
Possession, last 5	47.6%	60.6%
Corners, last 5	4.6	2.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.325	0.241
On-target allowed per possession	0.109	0.095
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.203	0.163
Opponents' inside-box share	61.2%	68.7%
Save rate	69.1%	72.5%
Saves, last 5	4.2	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.08	1.01
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	88.2%	89.5%
Passes, last 5	446	574
Fouls, last 5	8.6	10.2
Cards, last 5	1.4	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	24
Home side won	8
Drawn	5
Away side won	11
Goals, home side	37
Goals, away side	40

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 22.3% · Draw 25.4% · Away 52.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Mallorca v Las Palmas

laliga-2 · 16:30 UK

Finished 3–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	5	11
Position last season	17	5
Points this season	14	11
Goal difference this season	+5	-1
Elo rating going in	1,565	1,512
Matches on record, all seasons	478	454
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	5
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	0.2	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	0.5	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	7	3
Failed to score, last 10	5	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	1	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	0.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.8	11.8
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	3.6
Shots per possession	0.244	0.200
On-target shots per possession	0.076	0.065
Inside-box shots per possession	0.139	0.118
Share of shots from inside the box	58.1%	58.1%
Expected goals, last 5	—	—
Possession, last 5	49.8%	53.6%
Corners, last 5	5.4	5.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.260	0.297
On-target allowed per possession	0.061	0.105
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.150	0.210
Opponents' inside-box share	53.1%	70.0%
Save rate	80.2%	66.2%
Saves, last 5	3.2	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	—	—
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	441	463
Fouls, last 5	14.8	12.4
Cards, last 5	3.6	3.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	4
Drawn	3
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	13
Goals, away side	9

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 61.1% · Draw 22.2% · Away 16.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Real Betis v Osasuna

la-liga · 16:30 UK

Finished 5–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	9
Position last season	5	16
Points this season	16	8
Goal difference this season	+2	-7
Elo rating going in	1,722	1,568
Matches on record, all seasons	539	547
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	2.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	0.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	4	2
Failed to score, last 10	0	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	4	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	21	22
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.8	8.2
Shots on target, last 5	7.0	3.0
Shots per possession	0.320	0.242
On-target shots per possession	0.124	0.089
Inside-box shots per possession	0.184	0.167
Share of shots from inside the box	53.6%	69.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.97	1.70
Possession, last 5	54.4%	44.8%
Corners, last 5	5.4	2.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.328	0.202
On-target allowed per possession	0.126	0.073
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.224	0.111
Opponents' inside-box share	66.6%	53.2%
Save rate	73.0%	57.3%
Saves, last 5	5.0	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.99	0.65
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	87.0%	78.0%
Passes, last 5	522	372
Fouls, last 5	9.6	14.6
Cards, last 5	1.2	2.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	22
Home side won	14
Drawn	4
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	36
Goals, away side	17

Benfica v Guimaraes

primeira-liga · 17:00 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	14
Position last season	3	8
Points this season	16	5
Goal difference this season	+15	-3
Elo rating going in	1,891	1,571
Matches on record, all seasons	535	535
Recent form
Points, last 5	12	5
Goals scored, last 5	2.6	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	2.9	0.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	0	5
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	21	21
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	3.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.2	19.6
Shots on target, last 5	6.2	5.4
Shots per possession	0.310	0.306
On-target shots per possession	0.115	0.077
Inside-box shots per possession	0.229	0.183
Share of shots from inside the box	74.4%	58.8%
Expected goals, last 5	2.03	1.69
Possession, last 5	63.8%	57.6%
Corners, last 5	7.6	6.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.213	0.199
On-target allowed per possession	0.069	0.092
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.149	0.131
Opponents' inside-box share	71.1%	64.5%
Save rate	63.4%	60.8%
Saves, last 5	1.6	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.36	0.62
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	89.0%	78.0%
Passes, last 5	563	478
Fouls, last 5	12.2	14.6
Cards, last 5	2.2	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	26
Drawn	4
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	69
Goals, away side	12

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 79.6% · Draw 13.2% · Away 7.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Cagliari v Juventus

serie-a · 18:45 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	6
Position last season	14	6
Points this season	12	10
Goal difference this season	+3	+4
Elo rating going in	1,597	1,747
Matches on record, all seasons	537	613
Recent form
Points, last 5	12	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	0.4	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	0.8	0.9
Clean sheets, last 10	4	5
Failed to score, last 10	3	2
Wins in a row	3	1
Unbeaten run	3	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	22	21
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.8	17.4
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	5.8
Shots per possession	0.289	0.311
On-target shots per possession	0.103	0.103
Inside-box shots per possession	0.187	0.193
Share of shots from inside the box	64.3%	62.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.00	1.49
Possession, last 5	40.2%	55.4%
Corners, last 5	3.8	8.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.270	0.211
On-target allowed per possession	0.076	0.076
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.178	0.116
Opponents' inside-box share	63.5%	54.8%
Save rate	78.9%	67.4%
Saves, last 5	3.8	1.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.65	0.54
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.4%	87.5%
Passes, last 5	371	494
Fouls, last 5	8.8	14.8
Cards, last 5	1.0	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	28
Home side won	2
Drawn	5
Away side won	21
Goals, home side	20
Goals, away side	61

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 14.6% · Draw 24.1% · Away 61.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Estac Troyes v Marseille

ligue-1 · 18:45 UK

Finished 0–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	14	17
Position last season	—	5
Points this season	4	3
Goal difference this season	-7	-1
Elo rating going in	1,396	1,628
Matches on record, all seasons	195	591
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	3
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	0.8	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	2.2	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	4	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	3	4
Days since last match	22	21
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.4	13.2
Shots on target, last 5	2.8	5.0
Shots per possession	0.263	0.287
On-target shots per possession	0.065	0.102
Inside-box shots per possession	0.175	0.191
Share of shots from inside the box	66.9%	65.5%
Expected goals, last 5	0.98	1.55
Possession, last 5	39.4%	56.4%
Corners, last 5	7.4	4.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.288	0.334
On-target allowed per possession	0.107	0.113
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.193	0.229
Opponents' inside-box share	66.4%	68.2%
Save rate	65.5%	68.6%
Saves, last 5	3.0	4.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.95	0.84
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	79.5%	91.0%
Passes, last 5	340	580
Fouls, last 5	11.2	9.6
Cards, last 5	0.8	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	1
Drawn	2
Away side won	7
Goals, home side	8
Goals, away side	22

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 25.8% · Draw 24.9% · Away 49.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Cadiz v Sporting Gijon

laliga-2 · 19:00 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	18	7
Position last season	18	9
Points this season	7	13
Goal difference this season	+1	+0
Elo rating going in	1,370	1,465
Matches on record, all seasons	414	542
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	6
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	3	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	4
Wins in a row	1	1
Unbeaten run	2	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.2	0.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.8	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.6	12.6
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	4.4
Shots per possession	0.219	0.226
On-target shots per possession	0.063	0.095
Inside-box shots per possession	0.136	0.146
Share of shots from inside the box	63.0%	61.0%
Expected goals, last 5	—	—
Possession, last 5	50.4%	50.4%
Corners, last 5	4.0	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.273	0.240
On-target allowed per possession	0.098	0.076
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.175	0.139
Opponents' inside-box share	62.2%	56.6%
Save rate	72.9%	71.1%
Saves, last 5	3.2	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	—	—
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	439	444
Fouls, last 5	11.0	11.6
Cards, last 5	3.2	3.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	4
Drawn	2
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	10
Goals, away side	10

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 38.2% · Draw 30.8% · Away 31.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Racing Santander v Valencia

la-liga · 19:00 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	14	19
Position last season	1	9
Points this season	7	4
Goal difference this season	-10	-9
Elo rating going in	1,554	1,590
Matches on record, all seasons	295	615
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	3
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	3.6	2.4
Goals scored, last 10	2.0	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	2.4	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	0	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	2	1
Days since last match	22	21
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	3.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.8	10.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	2.8
Shots per possession	0.260	0.284
On-target shots per possession	0.107	0.085
Inside-box shots per possession	0.174	0.173
Share of shots from inside the box	69.7%	59.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.50	1.33
Possession, last 5	47.6%	49.2%
Corners, last 5	3.6	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.306	0.247
On-target allowed per possession	0.123	0.079
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.195	0.164
Opponents' inside-box share	63.2%	66.2%
Save rate	61.8%	66.2%
Saves, last 5	5.0	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.06	1.42
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.0%	86.0%
Passes, last 5	428	430
Fouls, last 5	13.8	9.4
Cards, last 5	2.8	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	0
Drawn	2
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	6
Goals, away side	8

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 41.9% · Draw 26.9% · Away 31.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Arouca v Estrela

primeira-liga · 19:30 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	5	8
Position last season	9	15
Points this season	11	10
Goal difference this season	+3	+0
Elo rating going in	1,599	1,522
Matches on record, all seasons	311	111
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	8
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.8	1.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	1.9
Clean sheets, last 10	3	1
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	22	21
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.6	14.6
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	4.2
Shots per possession	0.221	0.248
On-target shots per possession	0.081	0.093
Inside-box shots per possession	0.126	0.177
Share of shots from inside the box	56.5%	71.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.09	2.10
Possession, last 5	52.2%	49.6%
Corners, last 5	2.6	4.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.291	0.228
On-target allowed per possession	0.094	0.091
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.187	0.132
Opponents' inside-box share	63.9%	58.0%
Save rate	71.8%	62.8%
Saves, last 5	4.6	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.83	0.83
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	86.0%	82.0%
Passes, last 5	463	395
Fouls, last 5	11.2	10.8
Cards, last 5	2.2	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	3
Drawn	1
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	8
Goals, away side	6

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 46.1% · Draw 27.5% · Away 26.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.