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The data behind the ratings

Monday 12 October 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

Valladolid v Albacete

laliga-2 · 12:00 UK

Finished 5–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	14	22
Position last season	16	11
Points this season	9	1
Goal difference this season	-3	-10
Elo rating going in	1,394	1,416
Matches on record, all seasons	488	348
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	1
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	0.8	0.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	1	0
Failed to score, last 10	5	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	3	0
Losses in a row	0	3
Days since last match	8	9
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.0	13.4
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	4.2
Shots per possession	0.239	0.306
On-target shots per possession	0.088	0.102
Inside-box shots per possession	0.145	0.210
Share of shots from inside the box	59.0%	66.6%
Expected goals, last 5	—	—
Possession, last 5	46.2%	44.4%
Corners, last 5	3.0	4.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.266	0.241
On-target allowed per possession	0.087	0.092
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.152	0.163
Opponents' inside-box share	56.5%	66.9%
Save rate	66.7%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	3.0	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	—	—
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	356	367
Fouls, last 5	16.4	12.4
Cards, last 5	3.2	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	1
Drawn	1
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	4
Goals, away side	9

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 47.9% · Draw 29.0% · Away 23.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Burgos v Granada CF

laliga-2 · 14:15 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	8
Position last season	7	14
Points this season	14	11
Goal difference this season	+3	+0
Elo rating going in	1,531	1,432
Matches on record, all seasons	218	598
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	2.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	0.9	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	4	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	9	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	1.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	1.8
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.4	19.2
Shots on target, last 5	2.6	4.4
Shots per possession	0.244	0.300
On-target shots per possession	0.086	0.084
Inside-box shots per possession	0.178	0.187
Share of shots from inside the box	71.4%	61.1%
Expected goals, last 5	—	—
Possession, last 5	44.6%	58.2%
Corners, last 5	3.2	6.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.283	0.284
On-target allowed per possession	0.080	0.129
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.168	0.164
Opponents' inside-box share	56.6%	57.4%
Save rate	76.4%	67.6%
Saves, last 5	3.2	4.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	—	—
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	382	446
Fouls, last 5	19.2	11.2
Cards, last 5	3.2	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	1
Drawn	3
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	5
Goals, away side	7

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 38.8% · Draw 29.9% · Away 31.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Atalanta v Venezia

serie-a · 16:30 UK

Finished 3–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	11	20
Position last season	7	—
Points this season	6	0
Goal difference this season	-2	-9
Elo rating going in	1,687	1,450
Matches on record, all seasons	575	81
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	0
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	2.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	0.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	2.3
Clean sheets, last 10	2	0
Failed to score, last 10	3	5
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	3	7
Days since last match	22	23
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.8	14.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.4	4.6
Shots per possession	0.245	0.242
On-target shots per possession	0.078	0.076
Inside-box shots per possession	0.165	0.167
Share of shots from inside the box	69.3%	71.0%
Expected goals, last 5	0.68	1.38
Possession, last 5	48.4%	57.2%
Corners, last 5	2.8	3.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.308	0.329
On-target allowed per possession	0.116	0.117
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.196	0.216
Opponents' inside-box share	62.9%	64.4%
Save rate	75.6%	58.7%
Saves, last 5	5.0	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.62	2.32
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	89.8%	86.2%
Passes, last 5	513	486
Fouls, last 5	9.6	11.4
Cards, last 5	1.0	3.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	3
Drawn	1
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	9
Goals, away side	1

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 62.6% · Draw 22.1% · Away 15.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Oviedo v Eibar

laliga-2 · 16:30 UK

Finished 3–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	8	1
Position last season	20	8
Points this season	11	21
Goal difference this season	+0	+11
Elo rating going in	1,496	1,554
Matches on record, all seasons	432	490
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	15
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	3.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	0.8	2.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	0.9
Clean sheets, last 10	5	5
Failed to score, last 10	5	0
Wins in a row	0	7
Unbeaten run	0	7
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	10	9
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	2.2
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	0.8
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.6	11.4
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	6.2
Shots per possession	0.266	0.260
On-target shots per possession	0.070	0.107
Inside-box shots per possession	0.152	0.156
Share of shots from inside the box	55.0%	59.0%
Expected goals, last 5	—	—
Possession, last 5	46.0%	40.8%
Corners, last 5	5.2	2.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.257	0.315
On-target allowed per possession	0.076	0.100
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.157	0.153
Opponents' inside-box share	60.3%	48.0%
Save rate	67.9%	79.8%
Saves, last 5	3.0	5.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	—	—
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	377	372
Fouls, last 5	10.2	11.4
Cards, last 5	3.2	2.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	3
Drawn	4
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	11
Goals, away side	10

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 41.5% · Draw 31.0% · Away 27.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Eyüpspor v Göztepe

super-lig · 17:00 UK

Finished 0–4. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	17	17
Position last season	15	6
Points this season	3	3
Goal difference this season	-14	-4
Elo rating going in	1,544	1,607
Matches on record, all seasons	76	256
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	2
Goals scored, last 5	0.4	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	3.0	2.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	2.0	2.0
Clean sheets, last 10	2	1
Failed to score, last 10	5	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	2
Losses in a row	3	0
Days since last match	22	22
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	3.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.8	16.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	5.6
Shots per possession	0.266	0.476
On-target shots per possession	0.091	0.154
Inside-box shots per possession	0.129	0.366
Share of shots from inside the box	47.4%	77.0%
Expected goals, last 5	0.99	2.12
Possession, last 5	51.0%	41.6%
Corners, last 5	4.4	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.271	0.265
On-target allowed per possession	0.096	0.079
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.171	0.186
Opponents' inside-box share	62.2%	69.3%
Save rate	64.4%	61.9%
Saves, last 5	3.0	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.12	1.75
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	85.2%	71.4%
Passes, last 5	407	287
Fouls, last 5	12.0	14.0
Cards, last 5	1.2	2.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	1
Drawn	3
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	2
Goals, away side	1

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 23.7% · Draw 25.7% · Away 50.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Torino v Udinese

serie-a · 18:45 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	13	13
Position last season	13	10
Points this season	4	4
Goal difference this season	-3	-3
Elo rating going in	1,577	1,573
Matches on record, all seasons	537	613
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	0	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	3
Days since last match	23	23
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.2	14.0
Shots on target, last 5	3.0	4.8
Shots per possession	0.227	0.283
On-target shots per possession	0.060	0.112
Inside-box shots per possession	0.143	0.189
Share of shots from inside the box	59.9%	67.2%
Expected goals, last 5	0.95	1.31
Possession, last 5	53.6%	45.8%
Corners, last 5	3.4	4.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.308	0.270
On-target allowed per possession	0.103	0.094
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.224	0.162
Opponents' inside-box share	73.0%	57.7%
Save rate	62.9%	66.2%
Saves, last 5	2.8	4.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.31	1.83
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	83.5%	82.6%
Passes, last 5	488	425
Fouls, last 5	9.4	11.2
Cards, last 5	0.8	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	28
Home side won	14
Drawn	6
Away side won	8
Goals, home side	40
Goals, away side	28

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 40.0% · Draw 31.3% · Away 28.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Coventry v Newcastle

premier-league · 19:00 UK

Finished 4–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	18	8
Position last season	1	12
Points this season	3	8
Goal difference this season	-9	+0
Elo rating going in	1,628	1,732
Matches on record, all seasons	642	621
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	8
Goals scored, last 5	0.2	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	3	1
Failed to score, last 10	5	2
Wins in a row	1	1
Unbeaten run	1	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	23	23
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.2	10.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.2	3.6
Shots per possession	0.278	0.243
On-target shots per possession	0.086	0.089
Inside-box shots per possession	0.184	0.150
Share of shots from inside the box	63.7%	60.4%
Expected goals, last 5	0.78	1.08
Possession, last 5	38.8%	48.6%
Corners, last 5	4.0	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.263	0.353
On-target allowed per possession	0.064	0.113
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.173	0.208
Opponents' inside-box share	63.2%	60.3%
Save rate	55.2%	71.9%
Saves, last 5	1.8	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.26	1.64
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	82.5%	80.5%
Passes, last 5	338	415
Fouls, last 5	12.0	12.2
Cards, last 5	1.0	2.4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 29.9% · Draw 26.6% · Away 43.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Levante v Sevilla

la-liga · 19:00 UK

Finished 3–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	17	5
Position last season	18	15
Points this season	5	13
Goal difference this season	-4	+1
Elo rating going in	1,580	1,593
Matches on record, all seasons	634	615
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.8	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	2	1
Days since last match	22	23
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	0.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.0	11.6
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	4.2
Shots per possession	0.352	0.274
On-target shots per possession	0.127	0.102
Inside-box shots per possession	0.237	0.150
Share of shots from inside the box	65.5%	53.9%
Expected goals, last 5	2.15	0.96
Possession, last 5	38.8%	41.8%
Corners, last 5	3.4	3.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.229	0.181
On-target allowed per possession	0.097	0.061
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.143	0.112
Opponents' inside-box share	62.4%	59.4%
Save rate	67.6%	66.1%
Saves, last 5	3.8	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.32	0.93
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	82.5%	81.0%
Passes, last 5	348	349
Fouls, last 5	10.6	13.4
Cards, last 5	1.2	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	24
Home side won	6
Drawn	7
Away side won	11
Goals, home side	27
Goals, away side	42

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 36.1% · Draw 29.4% · Away 34.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Tenerife v Girona

laliga-2 · 19:00 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	12	4
Position last season	—	19
Points this season	11	14
Goal difference this season	-2	+6
Elo rating going in	1,396	1,571
Matches on record, all seasons	394	416
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	0.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	4	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	3
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	7	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.6	13.4
Shots on target, last 5	2.8	4.6
Shots per possession	0.225	0.301
On-target shots per possession	0.070	0.117
Inside-box shots per possession	0.131	0.176
Share of shots from inside the box	57.6%	58.2%
Expected goals, last 5	—	—
Possession, last 5	40.8%	47.2%
Corners, last 5	4.2	3.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.186	0.248
On-target allowed per possession	0.063	0.080
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.117	0.160
Opponents' inside-box share	58.7%	64.6%
Save rate	60.5%	76.1%
Saves, last 5	1.8	4.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	—	—
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	353	425
Fouls, last 5	12.4	10.2
Cards, last 5	3.0	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	4
Drawn	3
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	11
Goals, away side	10

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 33.1% · Draw 30.9% · Away 36.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Famalicao v Alverca

primeira-liga · 19:15 UK

Finished 1–4. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	11	9
Position last season	5	11
Points this season	7	8
Goal difference this season	+2	-2
Elo rating going in	1,640	1,578
Matches on record, all seasons	245	41
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	0.9	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	4	1
Failed to score, last 10	3	3
Wins in a row	1	2
Unbeaten run	4	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	23	23
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.4	9.4
Shots on target, last 5	3.4	3.4
Shots per possession	0.198	0.228
On-target shots per possession	0.064	0.076
Inside-box shots per possession	0.106	0.136
Share of shots from inside the box	51.7%	57.2%
Expected goals, last 5	0.64	0.22
Possession, last 5	52.0%	40.8%
Corners, last 5	5.4	4.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.231	0.195
On-target allowed per possession	0.061	0.064
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.161	0.117
Opponents' inside-box share	69.7%	55.6%
Save rate	65.3%	69.1%
Saves, last 5	2.2	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.82	0.82
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	86.5%	78.0%
Passes, last 5	442	301
Fouls, last 5	11.8	12.4
Cards, last 5	2.6	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	1
Drawn	0
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	1
Goals, away side	1

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 51.0% · Draw 28.5% · Away 20.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.