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The data behind the ratings

Tuesday 13 October 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

Lens v Sporting CP

champions-league · 16:45 UK

Finished 0–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	7	2
Position last season	2	2
Points this season	7	18
Goal difference this season	+1	+11
Elo rating going in	1,672	1,886
Matches on record, all seasons	298	536
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	11
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	2.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	2.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.0
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	0
Wins in a row	1	1
Unbeaten run	1	13
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	4	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.2	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	2.8
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.4	13.8
Shots on target, last 5	6.0	5.2
Shots per possession	0.327	0.205
On-target shots per possession	0.128	0.081
Inside-box shots per possession	0.230	0.141
Share of shots from inside the box	70.0%	65.4%
Expected goals, last 5	2.13	1.42
Possession, last 5	49.6%	60.2%
Corners, last 5	7.6	5.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.244	0.220
On-target allowed per possession	0.084	0.061
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.168	0.126
Opponents' inside-box share	69.5%	50.2%
Save rate	70.4%	70.4%
Saves, last 5	3.8	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.35	1.00
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	85.0%	90.0%
Passes, last 5	481	569
Fouls, last 5	12.8	10.8
Cards, last 5	2.4	2.6

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 37.4% · Draw 25.9% · Away 36.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Bristol City v Blackburn

championship · 18:45 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	9	13
Position last season	12	22
Points this season	14	12
Goal difference this season	-1	+1
Elo rating going in	1,522	1,489
Matches on record, all seasons	701	729
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	2	1
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	2	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.8	14.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	5.4
Shots per possession	0.326	0.261
On-target shots per possession	0.098	0.102
Inside-box shots per possession	0.219	0.167
Share of shots from inside the box	63.9%	65.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.55	1.79
Possession, last 5	48.0%	52.6%
Corners, last 5	6.6	8.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.225	0.311
On-target allowed per possession	0.051	0.088
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.134	0.208
Opponents' inside-box share	59.5%	65.9%
Save rate	65.2%	63.2%
Saves, last 5	1.8	1.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.99	1.06
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	387	434
Fouls, last 5	11.2	9.0
Cards, last 5	1.4	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	22
Home side won	9
Drawn	5
Away side won	8
Goals, home side	30
Goals, away side	30

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 45.9% · Draw 27.7% · Away 26.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Burnley v Charlton

championship · 18:45 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	22	11
Position last season	19	20
Points this season	7	13
Goal difference this season	-4	-3
Elo rating going in	1,554	1,482
Matches on record, all seasons	627	707
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	3
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	0.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	0.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.8	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	1	3
Failed to score, last 10	0	3
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	2	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.6	10.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	2.6
Shots per possession	0.280	0.285
On-target shots per possession	0.090	0.084
Inside-box shots per possession	0.159	0.179
Share of shots from inside the box	56.9%	61.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.86	1.99
Possession, last 5	48.4%	40.8%
Corners, last 5	4.2	4.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.326	0.280
On-target allowed per possession	0.110	0.081
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.219	0.159
Opponents' inside-box share	69.6%	55.3%
Save rate	61.6%	70.7%
Saves, last 5	3.4	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.64	1.55
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	451	323
Fouls, last 5	10.8	11.8
Cards, last 5	2.2	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	5
Drawn	0
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	14
Goals, away side	1

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 58.4% · Draw 23.8% · Away 17.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Cardiff v Watford

championship · 18:45 UK

Finished 5–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	21	20
Position last season	2	16
Points this season	7	8
Goal difference this season	-3	-7
Elo rating going in	1,478	1,445
Matches on record, all seasons	687	654
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	3
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	0.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.9	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	0	0
Failed to score, last 10	2	5
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	3
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	19.2	11.2
Shots on target, last 5	6.2	3.4
Shots per possession	0.294	0.274
On-target shots per possession	0.100	0.087
Inside-box shots per possession	0.202	0.188
Share of shots from inside the box	69.3%	65.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.06	0.64
Possession, last 5	62.8%	53.0%
Corners, last 5	7.2	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.345	0.305
On-target allowed per possession	0.173	0.101
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.239	0.189
Opponents' inside-box share	67.1%	62.6%
Save rate	64.4%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	3.4	4.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.79	1.86
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	497	453
Fouls, last 5	9.2	11.0
Cards, last 5	2.4	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	16
Home side won	6
Drawn	5
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	21
Goals, away side	23

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 55.4% · Draw 22.1% · Away 22.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Millwall v Swansea

championship · 18:45 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	9	1
Position last season	3	11
Points this season	14	20
Goal difference this season	+1	+8
Elo rating going in	1,590	1,576
Matches on record, all seasons	707	648
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	10
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	1.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	0.8
Clean sheets, last 10	4	4
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	1	3
Unbeaten run	3	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.8	10.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.2	4.6
Shots per possession	0.344	0.216
On-target shots per possession	0.110	0.093
Inside-box shots per possession	0.281	0.123
Share of shots from inside the box	80.3%	56.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.15	2.25
Possession, last 5	40.2%	53.0%
Corners, last 5	3.0	3.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.289	0.284
On-target allowed per possession	0.082	0.071
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.172	0.206
Opponents' inside-box share	57.8%	73.4%
Save rate	63.2%	69.5%
Saves, last 5	3.0	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.67	0.67
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	300	565
Fouls, last 5	13.6	9.6
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	16
Home side won	6
Drawn	4
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	14
Goals, away side	18

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 38.5% · Draw 28.0% · Away 33.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Wolves v Bolton

championship · 18:45 UK

Finished 1–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	6	17
Position last season	20	5
Points this season	14	10
Goal difference this season	+4	-5
Elo rating going in	1,593	1,476
Matches on record, all seasons	664	679
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	6
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	2.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	1
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.5	14.4
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	5.0
Shots per possession	0.324	0.246
On-target shots per possession	0.093	0.095
Inside-box shots per possession	0.222	0.166
Share of shots from inside the box	68.9%	69.6%
Expected goals, last 5	0.60	3.00
Possession, last 5	50.8%	52.4%
Corners, last 5	6.8	5.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.220	0.245
On-target allowed per possession	0.078	0.114
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.124	0.194
Opponents' inside-box share	55.3%	78.4%
Save rate	73.6%	68.6%
Saves, last 5	3.2	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.00	0.71
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	398	411
Fouls, last 5	14.2	11.4
Cards, last 5	1.2	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	12
Home side won	3
Drawn	4
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	22
Goals, away side	19

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 67.3% · Draw 19.4% · Away 13.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Wrexham v West Brom

championship · 18:45 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	15	8
Position last season	7	19
Points this season	11	14
Goal difference this season	-3	+1
Elo rating going in	1,560	1,503
Matches on record, all seasons	101	677
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	7
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	0.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	2
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.4	9.2
Shots on target, last 5	2.8	2.8
Shots per possession	0.268	0.189
On-target shots per possession	0.090	0.071
Inside-box shots per possession	0.188	0.130
Share of shots from inside the box	72.5%	68.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.32	1.13
Possession, last 5	46.6%	51.4%
Corners, last 5	4.6	5.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.254	0.266
On-target allowed per possession	0.100	0.100
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.155	0.202
Opponents' inside-box share	60.3%	74.2%
Save rate	62.6%	80.1%
Saves, last 5	3.4	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.56	2.60
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	447	452
Fouls, last 5	9.2	11.8
Cards, last 5	1.0	2.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	0
Drawn	1
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	4
Goals, away side	5

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 42.0% · Draw 27.6% · Away 30.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Arsenal v Lille

champions-league · 19:00 UK

Finished 3–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	1
Position last season	1	3
Points this season	15	13
Goal difference this season	+5	+5
Elo rating going in	1,941	1,700
Matches on record, all seasons	614	592
Recent form
Points, last 5	12	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	0.6	0.7
Clean sheets, last 10	6	6
Failed to score, last 10	1	1
Wins in a row	1	1
Unbeaten run	1	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.2	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.4	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.6	11.6
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	5.0
Shots per possession	0.238	0.231
On-target shots per possession	0.091	0.102
Inside-box shots per possession	0.170	0.155
Share of shots from inside the box	71.7%	67.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.85	1.18
Possession, last 5	58.4%	48.6%
Corners, last 5	4.2	3.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.235	0.243
On-target allowed per possession	0.064	0.075
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.133	0.162
Opponents' inside-box share	54.4%	71.9%
Save rate	71.0%	75.3%
Saves, last 5	2.4	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.53	1.33
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	88.0%	84.0%
Passes, last 5	480	467
Fouls, last 5	10.6	11.4
Cards, last 5	1.4	1.2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 80.1% · Draw 13.6% · Away 6.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Atletico Madrid v Manchester United

champions-league · 19:00 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	12
Position last season	4	3
Points this season	19	6
Goal difference this season	+10	+0
Elo rating going in	1,774	1,762
Matches on record, all seasons	616	614
Recent form
Points, last 5	12	6
Goals scored, last 5	2.2	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	2.0	1.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	4	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	3
Wins in a row	4	0
Unbeaten run	4	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	19.0	20.8
Shots on target, last 5	7.4	5.6
Shots per possession	0.293	0.371
On-target shots per possession	0.104	0.107
Inside-box shots per possession	0.180	0.230
Share of shots from inside the box	63.1%	60.3%
Expected goals, last 5	2.14	2.73
Possession, last 5	61.0%	54.4%
Corners, last 5	6.4	6.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.263	0.250
On-target allowed per possession	0.100	0.091
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.163	0.176
Opponents' inside-box share	63.9%	68.2%
Save rate	70.3%	70.0%
Saves, last 5	1.8	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.13	1.84
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	89.0%
Passes, last 5	615	527
Fouls, last 5	11.0	10.6
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.8

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 51.1% · Draw 25.4% · Away 23.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Birmingham v Preston

championship · 19:00 UK

Finished 4–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	7	24
Position last season	10	14
Points this season	14	4
Goal difference this season	+2	-8
Elo rating going in	1,565	1,433
Matches on record, all seasons	739	704
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	0.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.9
Clean sheets, last 10	2	0
Failed to score, last 10	1	3
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	3	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.6	12.6
Shots on target, last 5	5.8	3.2
Shots per possession	0.273	0.294
On-target shots per possession	0.099	0.071
Inside-box shots per possession	0.199	0.189
Share of shots from inside the box	72.3%	65.3%
Expected goals, last 5	2.60	0.67
Possession, last 5	49.2%	42.0%
Corners, last 5	6.6	6.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.256	0.281
On-target allowed per possession	0.078	0.080
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.175	0.168
Opponents' inside-box share	70.8%	60.7%
Save rate	65.4%	65.0%
Saves, last 5	2.4	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.13	1.15
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	345	316
Fouls, last 5	12.2	10.0
Cards, last 5	2.6	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	20
Home side won	6
Drawn	6
Away side won	8
Goals, home side	21
Goals, away side	23

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 60.6% · Draw 21.8% · Away 17.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Galatasaray v Barcelona

champions-league · 19:00 UK

Finished 1–4. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	1
Position last season	1	1
Points this season	16	24
Goal difference this season	+5	+27
Elo rating going in	1,899	1,897
Matches on record, all seasons	541	616
Recent form
Points, last 5	12	15
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	4.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	2.1	3.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.8	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	2	4
Failed to score, last 10	2	0
Wins in a row	1	8
Unbeaten run	1	8
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	4	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.6	4.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.4	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	22.8	22.8
Shots on target, last 5	8.0	8.0
Shots per possession	0.344	0.283
On-target shots per possession	0.120	0.114
Inside-box shots per possession	0.234	0.207
Share of shots from inside the box	68.0%	74.6%
Expected goals, last 5	2.15	1.98
Possession, last 5	59.4%	74.2%
Corners, last 5	8.0	7.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.240	0.289
On-target allowed per possession	0.086	0.112
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.151	0.182
Opponents' inside-box share	63.8%	63.6%
Save rate	57.6%	62.1%
Saves, last 5	1.4	1.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.12	0.16
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.2%	—
Passes, last 5	449	744
Fouls, last 5	12.6	9.4
Cards, last 5	2.4	1.8

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 10.3% · Draw 14.3% · Away 75.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

RB Leipzig v PSV Eindhoven

champions-league · 19:00 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	5	1
Position last season	3	1
Points this season	9	19
Goal difference this season	+10	+16
Elo rating going in	1,678	1,830
Matches on record, all seasons	345	544
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	12
Goals scored, last 5	3.0	3.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	2.5	3.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	3	1
Failed to score, last 10	1	0
Wins in a row	1	1
Unbeaten run	1	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	3	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	3.8	3.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.4	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	19.0	19.4
Shots on target, last 5	7.0	7.0
Shots per possession	0.320	0.321
On-target shots per possession	0.127	0.127
Inside-box shots per possession	0.232	0.228
Share of shots from inside the box	70.7%	71.8%
Expected goals, last 5	4.03	2.34
Possession, last 5	55.4%	60.8%
Corners, last 5	6.2	6.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.306	0.288
On-target allowed per possession	0.121	0.126
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.215	0.200
Opponents' inside-box share	69.4%	73.1%
Save rate	67.6%	68.7%
Saves, last 5	5.0	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.22	0.94
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.0%	90.0%
Passes, last 5	530	564
Fouls, last 5	10.6	11.6
Cards, last 5	1.2	2.2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 62.2% · Draw 18.9% · Away 18.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Stoke City v Middlesbrough

championship · 19:00 UK

Finished 2–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	2
Position last season	17	5
Points this season	16	18
Goal difference this season	+2	+5
Elo rating going in	1,483	1,586
Matches on record, all seasons	681	701
Recent form
Points, last 5	13	11
Goals scored, last 5	2.2	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	1
Wins in a row	3	1
Unbeaten run	6	7
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.6	16.8
Shots on target, last 5	5.4	5.8
Shots per possession	0.272	0.295
On-target shots per possession	0.085	0.089
Inside-box shots per possession	0.170	0.194
Share of shots from inside the box	63.8%	64.3%
Expected goals, last 5	0.71	1.00
Possession, last 5	49.2%	55.0%
Corners, last 5	6.0	5.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.284	0.310
On-target allowed per possession	0.087	0.103
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.192	0.223
Opponents' inside-box share	66.1%	69.5%
Save rate	65.0%	64.2%
Saves, last 5	3.2	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	3.00	0.60
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	404	483
Fouls, last 5	13.4	9.2
Cards, last 5	2.2	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	18
Home side won	4
Drawn	6
Away side won	8
Goals, home side	15
Goals, away side	22

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 28.1% · Draw 24.7% · Away 47.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Villarreal v Napoli

champions-league · 19:00 UK

Finished 3–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	10	6
Position last season	3	2
Points this season	8	10
Goal difference this season	+0	+4
Elo rating going in	1,683	1,749
Matches on record, all seasons	578	614
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.8	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	0.9
Clean sheets, last 10	0	6
Failed to score, last 10	3	1
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	3
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.6	15.2
Shots on target, last 5	6.2	5.0
Shots per possession	0.261	0.250
On-target shots per possession	0.104	0.083
Inside-box shots per possession	0.170	0.173
Share of shots from inside the box	65.4%	64.2%
Expected goals, last 5	0.62	1.95
Possession, last 5	60.8%	49.2%
Corners, last 5	6.4	5.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.303	0.282
On-target allowed per possession	0.098	0.078
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.193	0.178
Opponents' inside-box share	67.4%	63.2%
Save rate	66.7%	69.6%
Saves, last 5	2.6	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.47	0.81
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	88.7%
Passes, last 5	591	467
Fouls, last 5	10.6	9.6
Cards, last 5	1.4	1.0

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 46.1% · Draw 26.4% · Away 27.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.