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The data behind the ratings

Friday 16 October 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

Çorum FK v Rizespor

super-lig · 17:00 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	8	9
Position last season	—	8
Points this season	10	10
Goal difference this season	+4	-2
Elo rating going in	1,636	1,602
Matches on record, all seasons	7	397
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	7
Goals scored, last 5	2.8	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	—	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	—	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	4
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	5	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Scored away, last 5 there	3.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.4	14.0
Shots on target, last 5	6.4	4.4
Shots per possession	0.250	0.296
On-target shots per possession	0.108	0.093
Inside-box shots per possession	0.142	0.169
Share of shots from inside the box	56.0%	57.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.41	1.26
Possession, last 5	52.0%	53.8%
Corners, last 5	4.8	3.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.313	0.324
On-target allowed per possession	0.105	0.116
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.200	0.209
Opponents' inside-box share	64.5%	64.9%
Save rate	67.3%	69.0%
Saves, last 5	2.6	4.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.59	1.58
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.5%	82.8%
Passes, last 5	473	430
Fouls, last 5	14.8	9.6
Cards, last 5	3.0	1.6

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 48.1% · Draw 25.4% · Away 26.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Heerenveen v Excelsior

eredivisie · 18:00 UK

Finished 4–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	10	8
Position last season	8	13
Points this season	9	11
Goal difference this season	+0	+2
Elo rating going in	1,566	1,506
Matches on record, all seasons	562	358
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	2.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	4	2
Failed to score, last 10	4	0
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	1
Days since last match	7	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Scored away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.0	11.4
Shots on target, last 5	6.0	3.8
Shots per possession	0.276	0.273
On-target shots per possession	0.109	0.095
Inside-box shots per possession	0.172	0.182
Share of shots from inside the box	62.9%	68.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.47	1.81
Possession, last 5	53.4%	39.2%
Corners, last 5	6.2	3.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.344	0.272
On-target allowed per possession	0.087	0.086
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.214	0.184
Opponents' inside-box share	61.1%	65.9%
Save rate	69.5%	65.2%
Saves, last 5	1.8	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.67	2.77
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	88.0%	—
Passes, last 5	476	362
Fouls, last 5	9.2	12.2
Cards, last 5	1.0	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	20
Home side won	11
Drawn	3
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	32
Goals, away side	28

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 60.0% · Draw 22.0% · Away 18.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Eintracht Frankfurt v 1. FC Köln

bundesliga · 18:30 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	13	10
Position last season	8	14
Points this season	5	7
Goal difference this season	-7	-2
Elo rating going in	1,579	1,486
Matches on record, all seasons	515	415
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	3.2	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	2.7	2.3
Clean sheets, last 10	0	0
Failed to score, last 10	1	0
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	6	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.4	17.6
Shots on target, last 5	5.6	5.8
Shots per possession	0.265	0.342
On-target shots per possession	0.105	0.114
Inside-box shots per possession	0.181	0.242
Share of shots from inside the box	67.1%	70.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.45	1.53
Possession, last 5	50.2%	46.6%
Corners, last 5	5.0	6.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.351	0.273
On-target allowed per possession	0.146	0.107
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.250	0.181
Opponents' inside-box share	70.4%	65.6%
Save rate	64.8%	59.6%
Saves, last 5	5.0	4.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	3.01	1.46
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	75.0%	81.0%
Passes, last 5	434	428
Fouls, last 5	10.8	10.0
Cards, last 5	2.4	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	22
Home side won	7
Drawn	6
Away side won	9
Goals, home side	33
Goals, away side	37

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 49.5% · Draw 23.6% · Away 26.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Leganes v Cordoba

laliga-2 · 18:30 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	15	16
Position last season	16	10
Points this season	11	9
Goal difference this season	-8	-6
Elo rating going in	1,430	1,429
Matches on record, all seasons	411	257
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	6
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	2.6	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	0.7	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	2.1
Clean sheets, last 10	4	0
Failed to score, last 10	5	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	3	1
Days since last match	5	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	0.2	1.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	2.4
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.0	15.6
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	5.0
Shots per possession	0.236	0.278
On-target shots per possession	0.079	0.082
Inside-box shots per possession	0.134	0.191
Share of shots from inside the box	57.0%	68.1%
Expected goals, last 5	0.43	1.41
Possession, last 5	46.8%	58.6%
Corners, last 5	4.2	5.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.310	0.300
On-target allowed per possession	0.100	0.114
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.200	0.201
Opponents' inside-box share	63.8%	65.3%
Save rate	71.9%	56.2%
Saves, last 5	4.2	1.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.25	2.87
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	399	439
Fouls, last 5	18.2	17.4
Cards, last 5	3.6	4.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	0
Drawn	1
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	1
Goals, away side	2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 40.6% · Draw 26.8% · Away 32.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Frosinone v Sassuolo

serie-a · 18:45 UK

Finished 4–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	9	10
Position last season	—	11
Points this season	10	8
Goal difference this season	+2	+0
Elo rating going in	1,500	1,574
Matches on record, all seasons	120	462
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	8
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	4	1
Failed to score, last 10	5	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	6	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	18.2	14.8
Shots on target, last 5	5.4	6.2
Shots per possession	0.404	0.288
On-target shots per possession	0.126	0.115
Inside-box shots per possession	0.249	0.175
Share of shots from inside the box	61.4%	61.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.52	1.21
Possession, last 5	43.8%	47.0%
Corners, last 5	6.0	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.298	0.299
On-target allowed per possession	0.086	0.109
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.187	0.195
Opponents' inside-box share	61.4%	64.8%
Save rate	69.7%	68.1%
Saves, last 5	4.4	4.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.28	1.21
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	74.3%	87.7%
Passes, last 5	311	441
Fouls, last 5	15.2	9.2
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	1
Drawn	2
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	8
Goals, away side	10

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 37.5% · Draw 26.5% · Away 36.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Le Mans v Toulouse

ligue-1 · 18:45 UK

Finished 0–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	12	12
Position last season	—	9
Points this season	6	6
Goal difference this season	-2	-2
Elo rating going in	1,585	1,566
Matches on record, all seasons	6	518
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	6
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	—	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	—	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	0	1
Failed to score, last 10	0	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	3
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	6	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.3	1.6
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.3	1.4
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.0	13.0
Shots on target, last 5	4.6	5.0
Shots per possession	0.257	0.272
On-target shots per possession	0.108	0.093
Inside-box shots per possession	0.157	0.175
Share of shots from inside the box	59.5%	64.4%
Expected goals, last 5	2.24	1.31
Possession, last 5	41.8%	51.2%
Corners, last 5	3.2	4.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.262	0.236
On-target allowed per possession	0.090	0.082
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.196	0.148
Opponents' inside-box share	73.4%	56.6%
Save rate	64.1%	68.3%
Saves, last 5	3.2	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	3.50	2.00
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	70.0%	83.0%
Passes, last 5	376	511
Fouls, last 5	15.0	17.0
Cards, last 5	3.0	1.8

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 32.2% · Draw 27.0% · Away 40.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Burnley v Wolves

championship · 19:00 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	21	9
Position last season	19	20
Points this season	8	14
Goal difference this season	-4	+2
Elo rating going in	1,550	1,578
Matches on record, all seasons	628	665
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.9	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	0	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	3	0
Losses in a row	0	2
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.4	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.6	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.6	14.6
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	3.6
Shots per possession	0.298	0.318
On-target shots per possession	0.087	0.087
Inside-box shots per possession	0.168	0.220
Share of shots from inside the box	56.9%	69.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.50	1.44
Possession, last 5	47.0%	53.0%
Corners, last 5	4.6	7.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.285	0.229
On-target allowed per possession	0.106	0.088
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.201	0.132
Opponents' inside-box share	73.8%	56.2%
Save rate	59.2%	70.6%
Saves, last 5	3.4	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.39	1.32
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	433	422
Fouls, last 5	9.0	13.6
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	16
Home side won	7
Drawn	7
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	21
Goals, away side	11

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 32.8% · Draw 26.7% · Away 40.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Deportivo La Coruna v Levante

la-liga · 19:00 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	8	17
Position last season	2	18
Points this season	10	6
Goal difference this season	+1	-4
Elo rating going in	1,547	1,578
Matches on record, all seasons	406	635
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	2.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	2.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.9
Clean sheets, last 10	1	3
Failed to score, last 10	1	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	5	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	3.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.4	13.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.6	5.8
Shots per possession	0.233	0.336
On-target shots per possession	0.087	0.124
Inside-box shots per possession	0.161	0.228
Share of shots from inside the box	66.3%	65.5%
Expected goals, last 5	2.00	2.50
Possession, last 5	51.4%	39.2%
Corners, last 5	6.6	3.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.237	0.254
On-target allowed per possession	0.076	0.099
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.122	0.168
Opponents' inside-box share	52.6%	66.2%
Save rate	67.3%	65.8%
Saves, last 5	3.0	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.53	2.26
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	83.0%
Passes, last 5	467	367
Fouls, last 5	11.4	9.6
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	12
Home side won	4
Drawn	4
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	17
Goals, away side	14

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 46.0% · Draw 27.3% · Away 26.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.