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The data behind the ratings

Saturday 17 October 2026 · everything below is a stored value, as it was that morning

Erzurumspor FK v Eyüpspor

super-lig · 10:30 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	11	18
Position last season	—	15
Points this season	8	3
Goal difference this season	-8	-18
Elo rating going in	1,522	1,534
Matches on record, all seasons	81	77
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	3
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	0.4
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	3.6
Goals scored, last 10	0.7	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	2.4
Clean sheets, last 10	3	1
Failed to score, last 10	5	6
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	4
Days since last match	7	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.4	13.8
Shots on target, last 5	3.2	4.6
Shots per possession	0.247	0.252
On-target shots per possession	0.074	0.089
Inside-box shots per possession	0.152	0.121
Share of shots from inside the box	59.6%	47.4%
Expected goals, last 5	0.89	1.23
Possession, last 5	39.4%	50.4%
Corners, last 5	3.2	4.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.266	0.289
On-target allowed per possession	0.084	0.104
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.185	0.188
Opponents' inside-box share	68.6%	64.1%
Save rate	65.2%	61.1%
Saves, last 5	3.0	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.09	2.68
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.5%	83.8%
Passes, last 5	357	403
Fouls, last 5	10.8	10.4
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.8

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 58.5% · Draw 24.8% · Away 16.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Everton v Chelsea

premier-league · 11:30 UK

Finished 0–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	5	5
Position last season	13	10
Points this season	10	10
Goal difference this season	+3	+2
Elo rating going in	1,719	1,750
Matches on record, all seasons	614	614
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	2.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	2.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	2.0
Clean sheets, last 10	3	0
Failed to score, last 10	2	1
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	6	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	6	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.8	12.8
Shots on target, last 5	5.0	5.2
Shots per possession	0.333	0.281
On-target shots per possession	0.113	0.106
Inside-box shots per possession	0.232	0.181
Share of shots from inside the box	69.9%	59.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.73	2.06
Possession, last 5	48.4%	47.8%
Corners, last 5	5.4	6.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.266	0.262
On-target allowed per possession	0.075	0.109
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.187	0.193
Opponents' inside-box share	69.8%	74.6%
Save rate	64.5%	67.6%
Saves, last 5	2.6	4.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.76	1.54
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	78.0%	67.0%
Passes, last 5	444	436
Fouls, last 5	7.8	8.6
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	10
Drawn	7
Away side won	15
Goals, home side	32
Goals, away side	50

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 30.5% · Draw 26.1% · Away 43.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Middlesbrough v Cardiff

championship · 11:30 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	18
Position last season	5	2
Points this season	21	10
Goal difference this season	+6	+1
Elo rating going in	1,595	1,485
Matches on record, all seasons	702	688
Recent form
Points, last 5	11	7
Goals scored, last 5	2.4	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	2.0	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	2	0
Failed to score, last 10	0	2
Wins in a row	2	1
Unbeaten run	8	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	4	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.4	20.4
Shots on target, last 5	6.4	7.2
Shots per possession	0.306	0.303
On-target shots per possession	0.104	0.108
Inside-box shots per possession	0.209	0.211
Share of shots from inside the box	67.7%	70.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.81	2.41
Possession, last 5	58.6%	61.6%
Corners, last 5	5.4	7.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.302	0.338
On-target allowed per possession	0.099	0.147
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.219	0.239
Opponents' inside-box share	70.0%	68.6%
Save rate	63.5%	68.6%
Saves, last 5	2.2	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.67	1.66
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	507	501
Fouls, last 5	10.0	9.2
Cards, last 5	1.4	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	22
Home side won	11
Drawn	3
Away side won	8
Goals, home side	32
Goals, away side	23

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 62.2% · Draw 19.3% · Away 18.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Millwall v Lincoln

championship · 11:30 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	11	18
Position last season	3	1
Points this season	14	11
Goal difference this season	+0	-10
Elo rating going in	1,578	1,549
Matches on record, all seasons	708	324
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	6
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	0.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	4	4
Failed to score, last 10	2	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	3
Days since last match	4	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.8	0.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.2	2.4
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.0	9.6
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	2.6
Shots per possession	0.342	0.313
On-target shots per possession	0.109	0.078
Inside-box shots per possession	0.279	0.209
Share of shots from inside the box	79.8%	64.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.12	0.86
Possession, last 5	44.8%	40.0%
Corners, last 5	4.8	2.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.283	0.259
On-target allowed per possession	0.065	0.089
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.162	0.143
Opponents' inside-box share	56.2%	55.2%
Save rate	63.5%	64.8%
Saves, last 5	2.4	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.26	1.92
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	313	264
Fouls, last 5	13.0	12.8
Cards, last 5	2.0	2.6

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 61.0% · Draw 22.1% · Away 16.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Milton Keynes Dons v Luton

league-one · 11:30 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	23	13
Position last season	—	7
Points this season	6	11
Goal difference this season	-6	+1
Elo rating going in	1,365	1,466
Matches on record, all seasons	507	373
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	2.4	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	2.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.9	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	3	1
Failed to score, last 10	3	1
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	2.2	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	2.8
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	2.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.2	13.8
Shots on target, last 5	3.4	4.8
Shots per possession	0.320	0.265
On-target shots per possession	0.081	0.094
Inside-box shots per possession	0.238	0.189
Share of shots from inside the box	73.3%	71.3%
Expected goals, last 5	0.80	2.95
Possession, last 5	49.2%	53.4%
Corners, last 5	4.8	6.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.279	0.267
On-target allowed per possession	0.106	0.099
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.190	0.187
Opponents' inside-box share	67.8%	68.4%
Save rate	63.8%	65.6%
Saves, last 5	2.2	2.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	3.67	2.28
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	351	460
Fouls, last 5	14.2	11.8
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.8

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 28.3% · Draw 25.0% · Away 46.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Peterborough v Burton Albion

league-one · 11:30 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	19	10
Position last season	18	17
Points this season	8	12
Goal difference this season	-7	-2
Elo rating going in	1,328	1,361
Matches on record, all seasons	694	505
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	4
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	0.8	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	1	1
Failed to score, last 10	5	2
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	2
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	0.8
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	1.4
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.8	10.6
Shots on target, last 5	2.8	3.0
Shots per possession	0.284	0.242
On-target shots per possession	0.076	0.085
Inside-box shots per possession	0.185	0.141
Share of shots from inside the box	64.4%	54.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.53	0.97
Possession, last 5	52.0%	48.6%
Corners, last 5	6.6	5.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.333	0.258
On-target allowed per possession	0.137	0.083
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.270	0.182
Opponents' inside-box share	80.9%	69.4%
Save rate	67.2%	59.5%
Saves, last 5	2.6	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.47	0.66
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	432	374
Fouls, last 5	10.0	11.2
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	16
Home side won	7
Drawn	5
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	28
Goals, away side	18

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 51.0% · Draw 22.9% · Away 26.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Watford v Charlton

championship · 11:30 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	22	13
Position last season	16	20
Points this season	8	14
Goal difference this season	-11	-3
Elo rating going in	1,437	1,486
Matches on record, all seasons	655	708
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	4
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	2.6	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	0.8	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.9	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	0	3
Failed to score, last 10	4	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	2
Losses in a row	4	0
Days since last match	4	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	0.4	1.2
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	2.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.8	9.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	3.0
Shots per possession	0.277	0.256
On-target shots per possession	0.087	0.082
Inside-box shots per possession	0.184	0.162
Share of shots from inside the box	63.3%	64.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.08	2.06
Possession, last 5	51.8%	44.2%
Corners, last 5	3.8	5.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.312	0.292
On-target allowed per possession	0.107	0.078
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.202	0.160
Opponents' inside-box share	65.3%	53.6%
Save rate	68.2%	70.4%
Saves, last 5	5.0	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.81	1.34
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	442	352
Fouls, last 5	11.2	11.6
Cards, last 5	2.2	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	8
Home side won	2
Drawn	2
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	13
Goals, away side	12

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 36.8% · Draw 28.4% · Away 34.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Espanyol v Atletico Madrid

la-liga · 12:00 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	11	2
Position last season	11	4
Points this season	8	19
Goal difference this season	+0	+10
Elo rating going in	1,554	1,758
Matches on record, all seasons	628	616
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	12
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	2.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	2.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	2	4
Failed to score, last 10	0	1
Wins in a row	0	4
Unbeaten run	1	4
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	1.8
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	2.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.8	19.0
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	7.4
Shots per possession	0.257	0.293
On-target shots per possession	0.088	0.104
Inside-box shots per possession	0.145	0.180
Share of shots from inside the box	55.6%	63.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.14	2.14
Possession, last 5	49.8%	61.0%
Corners, last 5	2.8	6.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.218	0.263
On-target allowed per possession	0.094	0.100
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.141	0.163
Opponents' inside-box share	63.0%	63.9%
Save rate	67.7%	70.3%
Saves, last 5	3.0	1.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.77	1.13
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	383	615
Fouls, last 5	17.0	11.0
Cards, last 5	2.8	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	28
Home side won	7
Drawn	8
Away side won	13
Goals, home side	31
Goals, away side	38

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 19.4% · Draw 23.9% · Away 56.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Real Sociedad II v Almeria

laliga-2 · 12:00 UK

Finished 2–4. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	18	1
Position last season	15	3
Points this season	8	21
Goal difference this season	-5	+11
Elo rating going in	1,378	1,553
Matches on record, all seasons	93	545
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	15
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	2.4	0.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.8	0.7
Clean sheets, last 10	0	5
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	0	6
Unbeaten run	0	6
Losses in a row	4	0
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.0	14.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	5.4
Shots per possession	0.300	0.243
On-target shots per possession	0.095	0.086
Inside-box shots per possession	0.186	0.161
Share of shots from inside the box	61.6%	64.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.85	1.25
Possession, last 5	39.2%	54.2%
Corners, last 5	4.0	4.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.253	0.271
On-target allowed per possession	0.081	0.067
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.169	0.181
Opponents' inside-box share	64.8%	69.6%
Save rate	64.2%	75.4%
Saves, last 5	3.2	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.98	0.43
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	322	476
Fouls, last 5	18.8	15.6
Cards, last 5	3.6	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	0
Drawn	1
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	4
Goals, away side	12

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 26.7% · Draw 26.1% · Away 47.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Amed v Konyaspor

super-lig · 13:00 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	15
Position last season	—	9
Points this season	14	5
Goal difference this season	+8	-4
Elo rating going in	1,657	1,570
Matches on record, all seasons	7	467
Recent form
Points, last 5	11	5
Goals scored, last 5	2.8	0.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	0.6
Goals scored, last 10	—	0.7
Goals conceded, last 10	—	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	1	5
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	5	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.3	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.6	11.0
Shots on target, last 5	5.8	2.6
Shots per possession	0.325	0.247
On-target shots per possession	0.120	0.074
Inside-box shots per possession	0.174	0.164
Share of shots from inside the box	52.2%	66.8%
Expected goals, last 5	2.40	0.84
Possession, last 5	44.4%	49.4%
Corners, last 5	3.4	2.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.207	0.283
On-target allowed per possession	0.078	0.111
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.111	0.166
Opponents' inside-box share	53.1%	56.8%
Save rate	66.7%	71.4%
Saves, last 5	3.4	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.95	0.79
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	77.8%	77.8%
Passes, last 5	364	399
Fouls, last 5	14.4	13.4
Cards, last 5	4.4	2.6

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 49.7% · Draw 26.3% · Away 24.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Gençlerbirliği S.K. v Galatasaray

super-lig · 13:00 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	11	1
Position last season	14	1
Points this season	8	16
Goal difference this season	-8	+5
Elo rating going in	1,526	1,886
Matches on record, all seasons	353	541
Recent form
Points, last 5	2	12
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	2.8	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	2.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.8	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	2
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	1	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.8	2.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.6	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.6	22.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	8.0
Shots per possession	0.268	0.344
On-target shots per possession	0.093	0.120
Inside-box shots per possession	0.157	0.234
Share of shots from inside the box	59.2%	68.0%
Expected goals, last 5	0.72	2.15
Possession, last 5	47.0%	59.4%
Corners, last 5	5.4	8.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.293	0.240
On-target allowed per possession	0.119	0.086
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.209	0.151
Opponents' inside-box share	73.0%	63.8%
Save rate	70.7%	57.6%
Saves, last 5	4.4	1.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.76	1.12
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	80.5%	84.2%
Passes, last 5	369	449
Fouls, last 5	13.6	12.6
Cards, last 5	2.4	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	20
Home side won	2
Drawn	5
Away side won	13
Goals, home side	17
Goals, away side	42

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 13.2% · Draw 17.8% · Away 69.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Venezia v Napoli

serie-a · 13:00 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	20	6
Position last season	—	2
Points this season	0	10
Goal difference this season	-11	+4
Elo rating going in	1,447	1,762
Matches on record, all seasons	82	614
Recent form
Points, last 5	0	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	2.8	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	2.4	0.9
Clean sheets, last 10	0	6
Failed to score, last 10	4	1
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	3
Losses in a row	8	0
Days since last match	5	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.2	15.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	5.0
Shots per possession	0.242	0.250
On-target shots per possession	0.078	0.083
Inside-box shots per possession	0.162	0.173
Share of shots from inside the box	69.6%	64.2%
Expected goals, last 5	1.49	1.95
Possession, last 5	55.8%	49.2%
Corners, last 5	4.2	5.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.368	0.282
On-target allowed per possession	0.143	0.078
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.245	0.178
Opponents' inside-box share	64.4%	63.2%
Save rate	60.8%	69.6%
Saves, last 5	4.4	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.33	0.81
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	86.0%	88.7%
Passes, last 5	476	467
Fouls, last 5	11.0	9.6
Cards, last 5	3.4	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	0
Drawn	1
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	0
Goals, away side	5

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 19.9% · Draw 23.4% · Away 56.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

FC Schalke 04 v FSV Mainz 05

bundesliga · 13:30 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	13	7
Position last season	—	10
Points this season	5	7
Goal difference this season	-2	+3
Elo rating going in	1,459	1,571
Matches on record, all seasons	413	549
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	7
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	2.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	2.2
Goals conceded, last 10	2.1	1.9
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	4	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	1
Days since last match	6	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	3.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.4	19.4
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	6.0
Shots per possession	0.288	0.385
On-target shots per possession	0.106	0.135
Inside-box shots per possession	0.195	0.282
Share of shots from inside the box	69.9%	73.0%
Expected goals, last 5	0.96	2.08
Possession, last 5	38.6%	50.4%
Corners, last 5	2.8	5.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.266	0.256
On-target allowed per possession	0.113	0.095
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.192	0.187
Opponents' inside-box share	71.1%	71.9%
Save rate	67.1%	60.7%
Saves, last 5	5.2	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.37	1.23
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	73.0%	84.0%
Passes, last 5	341	442
Fouls, last 5	8.8	12.6
Cards, last 5	1.2	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	24
Home side won	14
Drawn	6
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	36
Goals, away side	22

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 31.2% · Draw 26.7% · Away 42.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Hamburger SV v VfB Stuttgart

bundesliga · 13:30 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	11	10
Position last season	13	4
Points this season	6	6
Goal difference this season	-10	-1
Elo rating going in	1,504	1,653
Matches on record, all seasons	315	485
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	6
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	3.0	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.9
Goals conceded, last 10	2.4	2.0
Clean sheets, last 10	0	1
Failed to score, last 10	3	1
Wins in a row	2	1
Unbeaten run	2	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	1.8
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	2.4
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.4	15.8
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	6.0
Shots per possession	0.284	0.309
On-target shots per possession	0.100	0.128
Inside-box shots per possession	0.174	0.210
Share of shots from inside the box	59.0%	67.5%
Expected goals, last 5	0.98	1.66
Possession, last 5	43.0%	52.2%
Corners, last 5	3.6	6.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.284	0.361
On-target allowed per possession	0.109	0.127
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.177	0.252
Opponents' inside-box share	59.8%	70.2%
Save rate	64.2%	64.7%
Saves, last 5	3.2	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.25	2.92
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.0%	76.0%
Passes, last 5	352	482
Fouls, last 5	14.8	10.0
Cards, last 5	1.0	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	18
Home side won	6
Drawn	2
Away side won	10
Goals, home side	22
Goals, away side	35

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 22.6% · Draw 23.8% · Away 53.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

SV Elversberg v FC Augsburg

bundesliga · 13:30 UK

Finished 4–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	8	5
Position last season	—	9
Points this season	7	8
Goal difference this season	+0	+5
Elo rating going in	1,573	1,570
Matches on record, all seasons	7	515
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	8
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	2.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	—	2.2
Goals conceded, last 10	—	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	1	1
Failed to score, last 10	2	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.5	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.5	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.6	13.6
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	6.8
Shots per possession	0.217	0.359
On-target shots per possession	0.085	0.161
Inside-box shots per possession	0.141	0.252
Share of shots from inside the box	63.4%	69.2%
Expected goals, last 5	0.70	2.99
Possession, last 5	45.2%	39.0%
Corners, last 5	3.6	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.381	0.346
On-target allowed per possession	0.098	0.120
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.262	0.228
Opponents' inside-box share	68.6%	64.2%
Save rate	64.9%	73.8%
Saves, last 5	2.8	5.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.76	3.32
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	73.0%	77.0%
Passes, last 5	393	354
Fouls, last 5	11.0	9.0
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.6

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 39.2% · Draw 25.6% · Away 35.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Union Berlin v Borussia Dortmund

bundesliga · 13:30 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	16	1
Position last season	11	2
Points this season	4	13
Goal difference this season	-12	+7
Elo rating going in	1,517	1,747
Matches on record, all seasons	245	549
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	13
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	2.2
Goals conceded, last 5	3.4	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	2.1
Goals conceded, last 10	2.5	0.9
Clean sheets, last 10	2	5
Failed to score, last 10	2	1
Wins in a row	1	0
Unbeaten run	1	7
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.2	2.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.6	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.0	15.8
Shots on target, last 5	5.2	5.8
Shots per possession	0.287	0.258
On-target shots per possession	0.112	0.100
Inside-box shots per possession	0.199	0.190
Share of shots from inside the box	66.9%	74.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.75	1.96
Possession, last 5	45.0%	53.6%
Corners, last 5	3.8	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.264	0.237
On-target allowed per possession	0.117	0.082
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.173	0.143
Opponents' inside-box share	66.6%	60.0%
Save rate	56.9%	73.1%
Saves, last 5	4.0	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.83	0.94
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	69.0%	88.0%
Passes, last 5	362	521
Fouls, last 5	11.4	11.0
Cards, last 5	2.4	2.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	14
Home side won	4
Drawn	0
Away side won	10
Goals, home side	14
Goals, away side	37

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 19.0% · Draw 21.5% · Away 59.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Werder Bremen v SC Paderborn 07

bundesliga · 13:30 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	15
Position last season	15	—
Points this season	8	4
Goal difference this season	+0	-4
Elo rating going in	1,532	1,412
Matches on record, all seasons	517	75
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	4
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	0.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.8	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	0	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	6
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	4	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	8	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.2	14.2
Shots on target, last 5	6.0	2.8
Shots per possession	0.300	0.302
On-target shots per possession	0.119	0.067
Inside-box shots per possession	0.183	0.177
Share of shots from inside the box	62.5%	59.7%
Expected goals, last 5	0.83	1.33
Possession, last 5	43.2%	47.4%
Corners, last 5	3.4	4.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.295	0.331
On-target allowed per possession	0.110	0.115
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.185	0.221
Opponents' inside-box share	62.2%	66.5%
Save rate	66.7%	73.6%
Saves, last 5	3.6	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.22	1.85
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	86.0%	83.0%
Passes, last 5	445	454
Fouls, last 5	12.2	9.8
Cards, last 5	1.2	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	2
Drawn	1
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	11
Goals, away side	4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 53.6% · Draw 22.7% · Away 23.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Aberdeen v ST Mirren

scottish-prem · 14:00 UK

Finished 3–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	8	6
Position last season	9	11
Points this season	8	10
Goal difference this season	-2	-6
Elo rating going in	1,475	1,476
Matches on record, all seasons	605	493
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	3
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	0.4
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	2	4
Failed to score, last 10	6	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	4
Days since last match	6	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	0.4	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.0	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	0.8
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.4
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.2	11.4
Shots on target, last 5	3.0	2.0
Shots per possession	0.225	0.289
On-target shots per possession	0.056	0.078
Inside-box shots per possession	0.135	0.179
Share of shots from inside the box	60.4%	61.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.27	0.74
Possession, last 5	47.6%	50.8%
Corners, last 5	7.0	3.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.274	0.297
On-target allowed per possession	0.097	0.105
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.177	0.221
Opponents' inside-box share	66.9%	73.3%
Save rate	71.4%	65.6%
Saves, last 5	4.0	4.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.12	3.51
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	429	455
Fouls, last 5	10.0	12.6
Cards, last 5	2.2	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	45
Home side won	15
Drawn	15
Away side won	15
Goals, home side	62
Goals, away side	54

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 52.0% · Draw 25.4% · Away 22.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Barnsley v Cambridge United

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	19	5
Position last season	15	—
Points this season	8	16
Goal difference this season	-7	+3
Elo rating going in	1,362	1,345
Matches on record, all seasons	708	193
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	9
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	2.6	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.8	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	2	1
Failed to score, last 10	3	0
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	6
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.2	15.6
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	4.4
Shots per possession	0.310	0.279
On-target shots per possession	0.101	0.091
Inside-box shots per possession	0.202	0.208
Share of shots from inside the box	63.8%	73.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.43	1.92
Possession, last 5	48.8%	51.6%
Corners, last 5	7.8	8.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.275	0.202
On-target allowed per possession	0.097	0.070
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.185	0.122
Opponents' inside-box share	64.9%	60.0%
Save rate	57.5%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	1.8	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.93	0.75
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	328	366
Fouls, last 5	14.0	11.4
Cards, last 5	2.6	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	3
Drawn	2
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	11
Goals, away side	4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 38.3% · Draw 25.3% · Away 36.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Birmingham v QPR

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 3–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	4
Position last season	10	15
Points this season	17	17
Goal difference this season	+6	+6
Elo rating going in	1,570	1,507
Matches on record, all seasons	740	679
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	7
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.1	0.9
Clean sheets, last 10	3	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	3
Wins in a row	2	1
Unbeaten run	4	5
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	4	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.2	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.4	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.2	13.6
Shots on target, last 5	5.8	4.4
Shots per possession	0.269	0.286
On-target shots per possession	0.094	0.109
Inside-box shots per possession	0.197	0.183
Share of shots from inside the box	72.4%	66.4%
Expected goals, last 5	2.44	1.42
Possession, last 5	53.8%	50.4%
Corners, last 5	6.2	5.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.254	0.247
On-target allowed per possession	0.078	0.069
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.190	0.158
Opponents' inside-box share	77.2%	66.4%
Save rate	66.7%	73.0%
Saves, last 5	2.2	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.82	1.28
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	388	457
Fouls, last 5	10.4	10.2
Cards, last 5	2.4	3.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	22
Home side won	6
Drawn	5
Away side won	11
Goals, home side	21
Goals, away side	32

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 48.1% · Draw 26.3% · Away 25.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Bradford v Stevenage

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	9
Position last season	4	6
Points this season	17	12
Goal difference this season	+3	+4
Elo rating going in	1,428	1,426
Matches on record, all seasons	338	288
Recent form
Points, last 5	11	10
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	0.2	0.6
Goals scored, last 10	0.8	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	0.6	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	6	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	4
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	5	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	0.8	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.6	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	8.8	12.5
Shots on target, last 5	3.0	4.5
Shots per possession	0.172	0.263
On-target shots per possession	0.059	0.093
Inside-box shots per possession	0.115	0.181
Share of shots from inside the box	69.5%	68.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.30	2.16
Possession, last 5	49.0%	41.5%
Corners, last 5	5.4	3.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.226	0.181
On-target allowed per possession	0.045	0.050
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.121	0.105
Opponents' inside-box share	55.8%	57.1%
Save rate	70.2%	58.8%
Saves, last 5	1.6	1.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.35	0.24
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	357	316
Fouls, last 5	17.0	12.2
Cards, last 5	2.8	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	0
Drawn	2
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	4
Goals, away side	6

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 48.1% · Draw 28.6% · Away 23.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Brentford v Liverpool

premier-league · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	9
Position last season	9	5
Points this season	10	9
Goal difference this season	+6	+0
Elo rating going in	1,752	1,812
Matches on record, all seasons	667	614
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	8
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.8	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	3	3
Failed to score, last 10	1	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	8	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.8	12.4
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	4.6
Shots per possession	0.300	0.272
On-target shots per possession	0.088	0.095
Inside-box shots per possession	0.219	0.161
Share of shots from inside the box	70.7%	58.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.44	1.31
Possession, last 5	46.8%	54.0%
Corners, last 5	3.4	3.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.310	0.289
On-target allowed per possession	0.105	0.098
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.192	0.190
Opponents' inside-box share	60.9%	64.6%
Save rate	73.6%	64.0%
Saves, last 5	3.6	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.65	1.82
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	78.0%	89.0%
Passes, last 5	375	485
Fouls, last 5	15.8	13.8
Cards, last 5	3.0	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	2
Drawn	2
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	11
Goals, away side	22

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 39.7% · Draw 26.0% · Away 34.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Bristol City v Sheffield Utd

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	12	15
Position last season	12	13
Points this season	14	12
Goal difference this season	-2	+0
Elo rating going in	1,510	1,513
Matches on record, all seasons	702	687
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	6
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	1	3
Failed to score, last 10	3	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	1
Days since last match	4	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	0.6	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.0	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	1.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.8	8.4
Shots on target, last 5	5.4	3.6
Shots per possession	0.334	0.216
On-target shots per possession	0.100	0.083
Inside-box shots per possession	0.227	0.138
Share of shots from inside the box	64.8%	65.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.79	1.32
Possession, last 5	49.8%	40.2%
Corners, last 5	7.0	2.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.199	0.275
On-target allowed per possession	0.049	0.081
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.127	0.193
Opponents' inside-box share	62.7%	68.9%
Save rate	62.0%	68.2%
Saves, last 5	1.6	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.10	1.79
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	388	334
Fouls, last 5	11.4	12.4
Cards, last 5	1.4	2.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	18
Home side won	6
Drawn	2
Away side won	10
Goals, home side	19
Goals, away side	29

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 48.3% · Draw 26.1% · Away 25.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Derby v Stoke City

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	23	7
Position last season	8	17
Points this season	6	16
Goal difference this season	-10	+1
Elo rating going in	1,483	1,474
Matches on record, all seasons	710	682
Recent form
Points, last 5	2	10
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.8	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.9	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	0
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	1
Days since last match	3	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.6	11.6
Shots on target, last 5	4.6	4.0
Shots per possession	0.253	0.262
On-target shots per possession	0.077	0.084
Inside-box shots per possession	0.163	0.174
Share of shots from inside the box	61.6%	67.5%
Expected goals, last 5	0.75	0.72
Possession, last 5	55.2%	43.4%
Corners, last 5	6.2	5.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.277	0.284
On-target allowed per possession	0.117	0.090
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.202	0.200
Opponents' inside-box share	74.0%	68.6%
Save rate	62.1%	67.2%
Saves, last 5	2.4	4.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.46	2.81
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	436	357
Fouls, last 5	10.4	11.2
Cards, last 5	1.8	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	12
Home side won	4
Drawn	4
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	15
Goals, away side	12

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 32.4% · Draw 27.3% · Away 40.3% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Fulham v Hull City

premier-league · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	19	9
Position last season	11	6
Points this season	2	9
Goal difference this season	-4	+2
Elo rating going in	1,679	1,589
Matches on record, all seasons	670	678
Recent form
Points, last 5	2	6
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	0.7
Clean sheets, last 10	2	6
Failed to score, last 10	4	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.4
Scored away, last 5 there	0.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.8	12.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.2	4.0
Shots per possession	0.263	0.315
On-target shots per possession	0.078	0.122
Inside-box shots per possession	0.178	0.203
Share of shots from inside the box	67.2%	65.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.33	1.04
Possession, last 5	52.4%	33.6%
Corners, last 5	5.4	4.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.309	0.202
On-target allowed per possession	0.108	0.056
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.204	0.132
Opponents' inside-box share	65.2%	65.9%
Save rate	67.2%	73.1%
Saves, last 5	3.2	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.48	1.50
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	85.0%	67.0%
Passes, last 5	521	289
Fouls, last 5	9.6	11.0
Cards, last 5	2.0	3.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	10
Home side won	4
Drawn	2
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	11
Goals, away side	17

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 59.4% · Draw 23.4% · Away 17.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Hibernian v Falkirk

scottish-prem · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	10	11
Position last season	5	6
Points this season	7	6
Goal difference this season	-4	-4
Elo rating going in	1,559	1,512
Matches on record, all seasons	491	46
Recent form
Points, last 5	1	5
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.0	0.9
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.9
Clean sheets, last 10	0	1
Failed to score, last 10	3	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	1
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.8	13.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	4.4
Shots per possession	0.314	0.222
On-target shots per possession	0.086	0.063
Inside-box shots per possession	0.220	0.143
Share of shots from inside the box	69.7%	64.7%
Expected goals, last 5	0.82	1.92
Possession, last 5	52.8%	46.6%
Corners, last 5	7.6	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.264	0.293
On-target allowed per possession	0.108	0.115
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.167	0.200
Opponents' inside-box share	63.0%	66.8%
Save rate	73.3%	69.2%
Saves, last 5	3.6	5.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.75	1.43
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	454	403
Fouls, last 5	12.6	14.2
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	2
Drawn	1
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	9
Goals, away side	7

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 56.4% · Draw 24.0% · Away 19.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Kilmarnock v Motherwell

scottish-prem · 14:00 UK

Finished 3–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	12	9
Position last season	10	4
Points this season	5	8
Goal difference this season	-11	-4
Elo rating going in	1,475	1,561
Matches on record, all seasons	569	605
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	3
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	0.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	2.0	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	3	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	4
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.8	13.6
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	4.4
Shots per possession	0.261	0.250
On-target shots per possession	0.103	0.083
Inside-box shots per possession	0.190	0.171
Share of shots from inside the box	74.5%	68.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.21	1.09
Possession, last 5	40.2%	58.6%
Corners, last 5	5.2	6.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.283	0.343
On-target allowed per possession	0.090	0.115
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.209	0.228
Opponents' inside-box share	72.9%	60.8%
Save rate	66.2%	62.1%
Saves, last 5	2.4	4.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.50	2.88
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	355	592
Fouls, last 5	12.2	7.8
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	49
Home side won	16
Drawn	12
Away side won	21
Goals, home side	51
Goals, away side	58

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 30.5% · Draw 25.7% · Away 43.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Leicester v Doncaster

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	17	16
Position last season	21	14
Points this season	9	9
Goal difference this season	-4	+0
Elo rating going in	1,456	1,364
Matches on record, all seasons	620	504
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	3	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	0	2
Unbeaten run	0	2
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.0	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	2.0	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.8	15.8
Shots on target, last 5	5.5	4.2
Shots per possession	0.261	0.306
On-target shots per possession	0.090	0.102
Inside-box shots per possession	0.171	0.203
Share of shots from inside the box	62.7%	64.6%
Expected goals, last 5	2.47	0.66
Possession, last 5	65.2%	49.0%
Corners, last 5	7.8	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.391	0.270
On-target allowed per possession	0.130	0.089
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.264	0.185
Opponents' inside-box share	67.6%	67.4%
Save rate	64.2%	74.9%
Saves, last 5	2.5	3.5
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.53	0.97
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	591	362
Fouls, last 5	11.0	10.8
Cards, last 5	1.2	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	2
Drawn	0
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	6
Goals, away side	3

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 50.3% · Draw 23.5% · Away 26.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Leyton Orient v Blackpool

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	12	18
Position last season	20	13
Points this season	11	8
Goal difference this season	+2	-1
Elo rating going in	1,365	1,396
Matches on record, all seasons	337	685
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	1
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	2.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	4	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	1
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	2
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	1.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.4	1.4
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.6	12.0
Shots on target, last 5	2.6	2.8
Shots per possession	0.208	0.308
On-target shots per possession	0.060	0.110
Inside-box shots per possession	0.120	0.202
Share of shots from inside the box	57.6%	63.7%
Expected goals, last 5	0.35	0.75
Possession, last 5	47.2%	49.8%
Corners, last 5	3.4	5.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.314	0.366
On-target allowed per possession	0.108	0.113
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.211	0.226
Opponents' inside-box share	66.8%	60.9%
Save rate	68.8%	71.8%
Saves, last 5	3.4	4.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.30	1.92
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	356	355
Fouls, last 5	11.6	12.0
Cards, last 5	1.8	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	6
Home side won	3
Drawn	2
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	7
Goals, away side	3

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 41.5% · Draw 26.5% · Away 32.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Manchester City v Ipswich

premier-league · 14:00 UK

Finished 3–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	9
Position last season	2	2
Points this season	18	9
Goal difference this season	+11	-3
Elo rating going in	1,936	1,638
Matches on record, all seasons	614	680
Recent form
Points, last 5	15	6
Goals scored, last 5	2.8	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	2.2
Goals scored, last 10	2.4	1.6
Goals conceded, last 10	0.8	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	5	2
Failed to score, last 10	0	3
Wins in a row	6	1
Unbeaten run	6	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	6	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	2.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.0	11.8
Shots on target, last 5	5.0	5.0
Shots per possession	0.248	0.263
On-target shots per possession	0.086	0.107
Inside-box shots per possession	0.166	0.171
Share of shots from inside the box	66.7%	66.3%
Expected goals, last 5	1.40	1.61
Possession, last 5	63.0%	47.0%
Corners, last 5	5.8	3.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.285	0.285
On-target allowed per possession	0.099	0.099
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.188	0.178
Opponents' inside-box share	66.4%	63.6%
Save rate	74.9%	67.2%
Saves, last 5	3.4	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.79	3.22
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	93.0%	83.0%
Passes, last 5	608	435
Fouls, last 5	11.0	10.8
Cards, last 5	1.6	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	2
Drawn	0
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	10
Goals, away side	1

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 77.7% · Draw 13.3% · Away 9.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Norwich v Portsmouth

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	20	16
Position last season	9	18
Points this season	9	11
Goal difference this season	-3	-1
Elo rating going in	1,503	1,491
Matches on record, all seasons	657	508
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	8
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	2.4	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	2.0	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	0	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	3
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	4	0
Days since last match	3	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.0	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.8	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.4	17.2
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	5.0
Shots per possession	0.299	0.302
On-target shots per possession	0.108	0.086
Inside-box shots per possession	0.191	0.188
Share of shots from inside the box	63.3%	59.3%
Expected goals, last 5	0.97	1.53
Possession, last 5	50.0%	51.8%
Corners, last 5	4.4	6.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.263	0.249
On-target allowed per possession	0.099	0.095
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.191	0.184
Opponents' inside-box share	71.6%	74.6%
Save rate	58.0%	68.9%
Saves, last 5	2.6	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.21	1.69
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	416	376
Fouls, last 5	11.0	12.2
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	1
Drawn	2
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	6
Goals, away side	7

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 51.3% · Draw 26.1% · Away 22.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Plymouth v Huddersfield

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 0–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	4
Position last season	8	9
Points this season	19	16
Goal difference this season	+6	+7
Elo rating going in	1,483	1,430
Matches on record, all seasons	378	691
Recent form
Points, last 5	12	6
Goals scored, last 5	2.2	1.4
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.8	2.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	0.9
Clean sheets, last 10	3	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	1
Wins in a row	2	0
Unbeaten run	2	2
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.6	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.0	1.6
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.4	15.6
Shots on target, last 5	6.2	6.0
Shots per possession	0.347	0.293
On-target shots per possession	0.127	0.124
Inside-box shots per possession	0.222	0.231
Share of shots from inside the box	64.3%	76.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.76	1.89
Possession, last 5	48.0%	53.0%
Corners, last 5	5.2	8.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.219	0.187
On-target allowed per possession	0.057	0.059
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.160	0.125
Opponents' inside-box share	74.8%	59.4%
Save rate	67.5%	65.9%
Saves, last 5	2.4	1.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.00	1.85
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	340	401
Fouls, last 5	11.4	12.8
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	2
Drawn	1
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	8
Goals, away side	6

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 36.5% · Draw 27.6% · Away 35.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

ST Johnstone v Dundee Utd

scottish-prem · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	5	5
Position last season	—	7
Points this season	11	11
Goal difference this season	+0	-1
Elo rating going in	1,432	1,517
Matches on record, all seasons	569	424
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	0.8
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	1.4	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	1	4
Failed to score, last 10	3	4
Wins in a row	1	2
Unbeaten run	2	3
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	6	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	0.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.8
Scored away, last 5 there	0.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.2	16.6
Shots on target, last 5	3.2	7.0
Shots per possession	0.202	0.288
On-target shots per possession	0.063	0.104
Inside-box shots per possession	0.135	0.195
Share of shots from inside the box	68.2%	65.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.12	2.56
Possession, last 5	45.8%	47.2%
Corners, last 5	2.8	7.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.273	0.317
On-target allowed per possession	0.094	0.103
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.177	0.204
Opponents' inside-box share	66.3%	64.0%
Save rate	77.1%	72.0%
Saves, last 5	4.0	3.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.27	0.93
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	85.0%
Passes, last 5	419	375
Fouls, last 5	12.0	12.0
Cards, last 5	1.6	2.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	35
Home side won	12
Drawn	11
Away side won	12
Goals, home side	32
Goals, away side	38

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 35.5% · Draw 26.8% · Away 37.6% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Sheffield Wednesday v AFC Wimbledon

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 5–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	7	10
Position last season	24	19
Points this season	15	12
Goal difference this season	+7	-3
Elo rating going in	1,377	1,322
Matches on record, all seasons	708	320
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	8
Goals scored, last 5	1.2	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	0.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.8	0.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	2	5
Failed to score, last 10	3	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	6	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	1.0
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	2.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.5	10.4
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	3.4
Shots per possession	0.242	0.220
On-target shots per possession	0.095	0.064
Inside-box shots per possession	0.184	0.157
Share of shots from inside the box	75.0%	70.7%
Expected goals, last 5	1.85	1.00
Possession, last 5	55.0%	43.6%
Corners, last 5	7.2	5.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.303	0.269
On-target allowed per possession	0.093	0.096
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.211	0.192
Opponents' inside-box share	69.1%	73.3%
Save rate	65.4%	75.6%
Saves, last 5	2.0	4.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.89	1.76
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	482	296
Fouls, last 5	10.0	12.8
Cards, last 5	2.2	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	1
Drawn	1
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	4
Goals, away side	3

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 57.4% · Draw 22.5% · Away 20.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Southampton v Bolton

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	14
Position last season	4	5
Points this season	20	13
Goal difference this season	+11	-3
Elo rating going in	1,631	1,491
Matches on record, all seasons	609	680
Recent form
Points, last 5	12	9
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	2.2
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	2.1	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	0	3
Wins in a row	2	1
Unbeaten run	2	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	3	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	1.8
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	2.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.6	13.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.6	5.4
Shots per possession	0.276	0.241
On-target shots per possession	0.084	0.095
Inside-box shots per possession	0.198	0.165
Share of shots from inside the box	71.9%	70.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.76	2.32
Possession, last 5	53.4%	47.8%
Corners, last 5	3.8	4.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.336	0.261
On-target allowed per possession	0.091	0.109
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.248	0.204
Opponents' inside-box share	71.1%	78.1%
Save rate	70.3%	68.2%
Saves, last 5	2.8	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.04	1.49
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	504	397
Fouls, last 5	8.6	11.4
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.6

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 65.5% · Draw 19.0% · Away 15.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Stockport County v Bromley

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	21
Position last season	3	—
Points this season	16	8
Goal difference this season	+9	-11
Elo rating going in	1,484	1,376
Matches on record, all seasons	106	8
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	4
Goals scored, last 5	2.2	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	1.0	2.4
Goals scored, last 10	2.1	—
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	—
Clean sheets, last 10	3	1
Failed to score, last 10	2	2
Wins in a row	2	0
Unbeaten run	3	0
Losses in a row	0	1
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.6	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.6	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	1.5
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	2.8
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.4	9.5
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	4.0
Shots per possession	0.282	0.237
On-target shots per possession	0.091	0.096
Inside-box shots per possession	0.219	0.144
Share of shots from inside the box	77.2%	60.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.93	0.95
Possession, last 5	52.4%	39.0%
Corners, last 5	7.0	3.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.252	0.278
On-target allowed per possession	0.114	0.109
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.179	0.201
Opponents' inside-box share	72.8%	72.2%
Save rate	67.7%	65.6%
Saves, last 5	3.0	3.5
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.43	2.42
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	507	236
Fouls, last 5	7.8	14.2
Cards, last 5	1.2	1.6

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 74.7% · Draw 14.9% · Away 10.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Swansea v West Ham

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	4
Position last season	11	18
Points this season	23	19
Goal difference this season	+9	+17
Elo rating going in	1,588	1,671
Matches on record, all seasons	649	629
Recent form
Points, last 5	12	11
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	3.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.6	2.9
Goals conceded, last 10	0.7	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	5	3
Failed to score, last 10	2	0
Wins in a row	4	1
Unbeaten run	4	8
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	4	3
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	2.8
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	1.4
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.8	17.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	7.8
Shots per possession	0.226	0.277
On-target shots per possession	0.087	0.103
Inside-box shots per possession	0.131	0.195
Share of shots from inside the box	57.2%	70.6%
Expected goals, last 5	2.04	2.42
Possession, last 5	48.4%	63.4%
Corners, last 5	2.4	6.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.251	0.298
On-target allowed per possession	0.067	0.098
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.182	0.197
Opponents' inside-box share	73.4%	63.3%
Save rate	70.2%	62.1%
Saves, last 5	3.2	2.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.88	0.81
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	503	526
Fouls, last 5	9.8	12.6
Cards, last 5	1.4	2.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	12
Home side won	3
Drawn	3
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	14
Goals, away side	15

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 32.5% · Draw 26.4% · Away 41.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

West Brom v Blackburn

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 3–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	7
Position last season	19	22
Points this season	17	15
Goal difference this season	+2	+2
Elo rating going in	1,516	1,502
Matches on record, all seasons	678	730
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	10
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	2	2
Failed to score, last 10	2	1
Wins in a row	1	2
Unbeaten run	1	4
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	4	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	1.2
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	1.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.2	13.0
Shots on target, last 5	2.6	4.6
Shots per possession	0.182	0.242
On-target shots per possession	0.068	0.098
Inside-box shots per possession	0.128	0.157
Share of shots from inside the box	69.6%	66.5%
Expected goals, last 5	1.07	1.00
Possession, last 5	52.6%	48.0%
Corners, last 5	5.8	7.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.255	0.302
On-target allowed per possession	0.096	0.082
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.192	0.196
Opponents' inside-box share	73.5%	64.5%
Save rate	79.8%	63.7%
Saves, last 5	3.8	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.53	1.55
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	473	400
Fouls, last 5	10.4	8.6
Cards, last 5	1.8	1.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	18
Home side won	6
Drawn	6
Away side won	6
Goals, home side	22
Goals, away side	21

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 49.8% · Draw 26.2% · Away 24.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Wigan v Reading

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 1–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	24	6
Position last season	16	12
Points this season	4	15
Goal difference this season	-8	+11
Elo rating going in	1,331	1,427
Matches on record, all seasons	722	694
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	8
Goals scored, last 5	0.6	2.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	0.5	2.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	1	3
Failed to score, last 10	8	2
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	4
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	0.4	1.8
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	1.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.8	16.2
Shots on target, last 5	2.4	5.4
Shots per possession	0.245	0.337
On-target shots per possession	0.055	0.102
Inside-box shots per possession	0.151	0.234
Share of shots from inside the box	59.1%	72.1%
Expected goals, last 5	0.24	3.67
Possession, last 5	51.2%	50.0%
Corners, last 5	5.8	5.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.271	0.222
On-target allowed per possession	0.084	0.073
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.185	0.132
Opponents' inside-box share	66.5%	61.3%
Save rate	67.9%	70.0%
Saves, last 5	3.2	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.16	0.80
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	431	366
Fouls, last 5	11.6	11.6
Cards, last 5	3.4	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	20
Home side won	7
Drawn	3
Away side won	10
Goals, home side	24
Goals, away side	28

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 23.5% · Draw 25.7% · Away 50.8% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Wrexham v Preston

championship · 14:00 UK

Finished 4–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	16	24
Position last season	7	14
Points this season	11	4
Goal difference this season	-4	-12
Elo rating going in	1,547	1,428
Matches on record, all seasons	102	705
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	1
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	2.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	0.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	2.0
Clean sheets, last 10	2	0
Failed to score, last 10	2	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	2
Days since last match	4	4
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.4	—
Scored away, last 5 there	—	0.8
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	2.2
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.4	12.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.4	2.8
Shots per possession	0.243	0.283
On-target shots per possession	0.082	0.064
Inside-box shots per possession	0.181	0.190
Share of shots from inside the box	75.3%	68.8%
Expected goals, last 5	0.89	0.59
Possession, last 5	47.2%	40.2%
Corners, last 5	4.8	6.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.248	0.270
On-target allowed per possession	0.095	0.077
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.151	0.162
Opponents' inside-box share	60.8%	61.3%
Save rate	63.0%	66.7%
Saves, last 5	3.0	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.79	1.71
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	443	304
Fouls, last 5	9.2	10.4
Cards, last 5	1.2	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	1
Drawn	1
Away side won	0
Goals, home side	3
Goals, away side	2

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 56.7% · Draw 24.8% · Away 18.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Wycombe v Notts County

league-one · 14:00 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	15	20
Position last season	11	—
Points this season	10	7
Goal difference this season	-6	-3
Elo rating going in	1,406	1,379
Matches on record, all seasons	419	192
Recent form
Points, last 5	8	2
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	1.1
Goals conceded, last 10	2.2	1.5
Clean sheets, last 10	1	0
Failed to score, last 10	0	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	3
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.6	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	2.4	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	13.8	10.0
Shots on target, last 5	5.4	2.2
Shots per possession	0.266	0.225
On-target shots per possession	0.113	0.072
Inside-box shots per possession	0.194	0.111
Share of shots from inside the box	72.8%	44.7%
Expected goals, last 5	2.28	0.71
Possession, last 5	51.6%	46.5%
Corners, last 5	5.6	4.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.285	0.223
On-target allowed per possession	0.101	0.084
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.153	0.147
Opponents' inside-box share	52.4%	63.6%
Save rate	59.8%	63.1%
Saves, last 5	3.0	3.5
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.95	1.25
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	403	367
Fouls, last 5	9.6	14.2
Cards, last 5	1.2	2.6
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	0
Drawn	1
Away side won	1
Goals, home side	4
Goals, away side	5

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 49.0% · Draw 26.2% · Away 24.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Eibar v Mallorca

laliga-2 · 14:15 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	4
Position last season	8	17
Points this season	21	17
Goal difference this season	+9	+7
Elo rating going in	1,544	1,571
Matches on record, all seasons	491	479
Recent form
Points, last 5	12	10
Goals scored, last 5	2.6	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	0.4
Goals scored, last 10	2.0	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	0.4
Clean sheets, last 10	4	7
Failed to score, last 10	0	4
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	2
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	5	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.4
Scored away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.8	12.0
Shots on target, last 5	5.8	3.6
Shots per possession	0.269	0.251
On-target shots per possession	0.113	0.081
Inside-box shots per possession	0.174	0.144
Share of shots from inside the box	63.4%	59.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.55	0.86
Possession, last 5	45.4%	51.4%
Corners, last 5	2.8	5.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.320	0.219
On-target allowed per possession	0.108	0.056
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.150	0.120
Opponents' inside-box share	46.5%	55.1%
Save rate	77.8%	81.9%
Saves, last 5	5.4	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.60	0.35
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	399	466
Fouls, last 5	11.8	15.0
Cards, last 5	2.4	3.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	0
Drawn	0
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	2
Goals, away side	4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 35.3% · Draw 33.1% · Away 31.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Villarreal v Elche

la-liga · 14:15 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	10	17
Position last season	3	13
Points this season	8	6
Goal difference this season	+0	-6
Elo rating going in	1,695	1,558
Matches on record, all seasons	578	450
Recent form
Points, last 5	6	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.8	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.8	1.3
Goals conceded, last 10	1.6	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	0	2
Failed to score, last 10	3	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	2
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.6	11.2
Shots on target, last 5	6.2	4.4
Shots per possession	0.261	0.196
On-target shots per possession	0.104	0.079
Inside-box shots per possession	0.170	0.122
Share of shots from inside the box	65.4%	62.5%
Expected goals, last 5	0.62	0.84
Possession, last 5	60.8%	49.6%
Corners, last 5	6.4	3.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.303	0.262
On-target allowed per possession	0.098	0.082
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.193	0.172
Opponents' inside-box share	67.4%	64.0%
Save rate	66.7%	62.8%
Saves, last 5	2.6	2.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.47	0.34
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	591	458
Fouls, last 5	10.6	14.0
Cards, last 5	1.4	3.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	12
Home side won	6
Drawn	4
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	21
Goals, away side	12

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 66.1% · Draw 19.1% · Away 14.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

ADO Den Haag v PSV Eindhoven

eredivisie · 14:30 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	17	1
Position last season	—	1
Points this season	3	19
Goal difference this season	-10	+16
Elo rating going in	1,409	1,851
Matches on record, all seasons	392	544
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	12
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	3.4
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	0.9	3.5
Goals conceded, last 10	2.2	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	0	1
Failed to score, last 10	4	0
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	2	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	6	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	3.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	10.0	19.4
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	7.0
Shots per possession	0.223	0.321
On-target shots per possession	0.066	0.127
Inside-box shots per possession	0.128	0.228
Share of shots from inside the box	60.0%	71.8%
Expected goals, last 5	0.82	2.34
Possession, last 5	44.6%	60.8%
Corners, last 5	2.6	6.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.299	0.288
On-target allowed per possession	0.126	0.126
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.198	0.200
Opponents' inside-box share	67.3%	73.1%
Save rate	66.3%	68.7%
Saves, last 5	5.2	3.2
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.65	0.94
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	77.0%	90.0%
Passes, last 5	370	564
Fouls, last 5	13.8	11.6
Cards, last 5	2.2	2.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	22
Home side won	1
Drawn	5
Away side won	16
Goals, home side	19
Goals, away side	68

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 11.4% · Draw 13.6% · Away 75.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Strasbourg v Paris Saint Germain

ligue-1 · 15:15 UK

Finished 1–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	11	5
Position last season	8	1
Points this season	7	11
Goal difference this season	-1	+3
Elo rating going in	1,618	1,806
Matches on record, all seasons	325	591
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	10
Goals scored, last 5	2.2	1.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.6	1.2
Goals scored, last 10	2.0	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	2.0	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	0	3
Failed to score, last 10	1	0
Wins in a row	0	3
Unbeaten run	0	3
Losses in a row	2	0
Days since last match	6	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	2.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.8	21.8
Shots on target, last 5	5.0	7.8
Shots per possession	0.236	0.293
On-target shots per possession	0.097	0.093
Inside-box shots per possession	0.149	0.163
Share of shots from inside the box	62.7%	56.4%
Expected goals, last 5	1.11	2.81
Possession, last 5	50.8%	66.6%
Corners, last 5	1.6	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.343	0.320
On-target allowed per possession	0.123	0.128
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.223	0.206
Opponents' inside-box share	65.3%	62.2%
Save rate	70.0%	68.2%
Saves, last 5	4.2	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.12	1.29
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	87.0%	91.0%
Passes, last 5	496	712
Fouls, last 5	11.0	5.8
Cards, last 5	1.4	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	17
Home side won	2
Drawn	5
Away side won	10
Goals, home side	24
Goals, away side	43

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 14.5% · Draw 17.3% · Away 68.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Bologna v Inter

serie-a · 16:00 UK

Finished 1–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	13	1
Position last season	8	1
Points this season	5	16
Goal difference this season	-2	+10
Elo rating going in	1,641	1,869
Matches on record, all seasons	576	614
Recent form
Points, last 5	5	13
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	2.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	2.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.2	1.2
Clean sheets, last 10	2	4
Failed to score, last 10	4	0
Wins in a row	1	1
Unbeaten run	2	16
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	6	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	3.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.6	24.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.2	7.6
Shots per possession	0.230	0.302
On-target shots per possession	0.071	0.103
Inside-box shots per possession	0.146	0.222
Share of shots from inside the box	62.0%	74.7%
Expected goals, last 5	0.93	2.95
Possession, last 5	49.0%	60.8%
Corners, last 5	3.2	6.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.253	0.282
On-target allowed per possession	0.073	0.095
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.168	0.183
Opponents' inside-box share	66.2%	66.9%
Save rate	68.5%	67.9%
Saves, last 5	2.8	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.03	0.89
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.0%	90.0%
Passes, last 5	457	594
Fouls, last 5	12.6	8.2
Cards, last 5	1.2	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	30
Home side won	7
Drawn	8
Away side won	15
Goals, home side	33
Goals, away side	55

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 15.3% · Draw 23.2% · Away 61.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Fenerbahçe v Alanyaspor

super-lig · 16:00 UK

Finished 3–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	6
Position last season	2	10
Points this season	13	12
Goal difference this season	+13	+2
Elo rating going in	1,839	1,607
Matches on record, all seasons	541	365
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	8
Goals scored, last 5	2.8	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	0.4	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	2.8	1.2
Goals conceded, last 10	1.0	0.9
Clean sheets, last 10	5	4
Failed to score, last 10	1	2
Wins in a row	2	0
Unbeaten run	3	4
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	15.2	11.8
Shots on target, last 5	6.8	3.6
Shots per possession	0.347	0.248
On-target shots per possession	0.148	0.084
Inside-box shots per possession	0.240	0.162
Share of shots from inside the box	67.7%	64.2%
Expected goals, last 5	2.53	1.29
Possession, last 5	48.0%	45.2%
Corners, last 5	5.2	5.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.284	0.250
On-target allowed per possession	0.094	0.089
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.148	0.157
Opponents' inside-box share	52.6%	61.5%
Save rate	72.6%	77.5%
Saves, last 5	3.8	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.92	1.38
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	85.7%	80.6%
Passes, last 5	436	369
Fouls, last 5	13.2	12.8
Cards, last 5	1.2	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	20
Home side won	12
Drawn	5
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	44
Goals, away side	21

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 73.6% · Draw 16.4% · Away 10.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Bayern München v RB Leipzig

bundesliga · 16:30 UK

Finished 6–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	5
Position last season	1	3
Points this season	11	9
Goal difference this season	+12	+10
Elo rating going in	1,858	1,670
Matches on record, all seasons	549	345
Recent form
Points, last 5	11	9
Goals scored, last 5	3.2	3.0
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	3.3	2.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.6
Clean sheets, last 10	3	3
Failed to score, last 10	1	1
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	20	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	3.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	0.4
Scored away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	23.4	19.0
Shots on target, last 5	9.0	7.0
Shots per possession	0.309	0.320
On-target shots per possession	0.121	0.127
Inside-box shots per possession	0.187	0.232
Share of shots from inside the box	61.8%	70.7%
Expected goals, last 5	4.51	4.03
Possession, last 5	70.4%	55.4%
Corners, last 5	9.4	6.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.352	0.306
On-target allowed per possession	0.132	0.121
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.259	0.215
Opponents' inside-box share	72.2%	69.4%
Save rate	67.8%	67.6%
Saves, last 5	1.8	5.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.66	1.22
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	82.0%	84.0%
Passes, last 5	715	530
Fouls, last 5	9.6	10.6
Cards, last 5	0.8	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	20
Home side won	11
Drawn	7
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	49
Goals, away side	25

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 78.8% · Draw 11.8% · Away 9.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Newcastle v Aston Villa

premier-league · 16:30 UK

Finished 0–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	11	14
Position last season	12	4
Points this season	8	5
Goal difference this season	-3	-5
Elo rating going in	1,721	1,768
Matches on record, all seasons	622	644
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	5
Goals scored, last 5	1.6	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	1.5
Goals conceded, last 10	1.8	1.8
Clean sheets, last 10	1	1
Failed to score, last 10	1	3
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	2
Losses in a row	1	0
Days since last match	5	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.8
Scored away, last 5 there	1.0	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.4	12.4
Shots on target, last 5	4.0	3.8
Shots per possession	0.248	0.246
On-target shots per possession	0.093	0.084
Inside-box shots per possession	0.156	0.153
Share of shots from inside the box	61.6%	60.9%
Expected goals, last 5	1.30	1.07
Possession, last 5	54.2%	50.8%
Corners, last 5	5.2	3.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.356	0.311
On-target allowed per possession	0.123	0.103
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.213	0.186
Opponents' inside-box share	61.5%	62.0%
Save rate	68.8%	67.7%
Saves, last 5	3.2	3.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.28	1.18
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	85.0%	81.0%
Passes, last 5	466	438
Fouls, last 5	11.0	10.6
Cards, last 5	1.6	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	28
Home side won	12
Drawn	9
Away side won	7
Goals, home side	39
Goals, away side	27

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 42.5% · Draw 25.8% · Away 31.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Real Betis v Barcelona

la-liga · 16:30 UK

Finished 2–5. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	3	1
Position last season	5	1
Points this season	19	24
Goal difference this season	+5	+27
Elo rating going in	1,726	1,902
Matches on record, all seasons	540	616
Recent form
Points, last 5	13	15
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	4.4
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.0
Goals scored, last 10	1.7	3.8
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	1.1
Clean sheets, last 10	4	4
Failed to score, last 10	0	0
Wins in a row	1	8
Unbeaten run	5	8
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	6	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	2.0	4.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	0.6	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	17.8	22.8
Shots on target, last 5	7.2	8.0
Shots per possession	0.323	0.283
On-target shots per possession	0.122	0.114
Inside-box shots per possession	0.185	0.207
Share of shots from inside the box	53.3%	74.6%
Expected goals, last 5	2.96	1.98
Possession, last 5	52.8%	74.2%
Corners, last 5	5.4	7.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.336	0.289
On-target allowed per possession	0.133	0.112
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.230	0.182
Opponents' inside-box share	67.1%	63.6%
Save rate	72.8%	62.1%
Saves, last 5	4.8	1.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.00	0.16
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	507	744
Fouls, last 5	10.4	9.4
Cards, last 5	1.4	1.8
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	28
Home side won	2
Drawn	4
Away side won	22
Goals, home side	37
Goals, away side	90

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 15.2% · Draw 16.4% · Away 68.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Sporting Gijon v Albacete

laliga-2 · 16:30 UK

Finished 2–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	5	22
Position last season	9	11
Points this season	16	1
Goal difference this season	+1	-15
Elo rating going in	1,474	1,407
Matches on record, all seasons	543	349
Recent form
Points, last 5	9	1
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	2.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.1	0.5
Goals conceded, last 10	0.9	2.1
Clean sheets, last 10	4	0
Failed to score, last 10	4	5
Wins in a row	2	0
Unbeaten run	2	0
Losses in a row	0	4
Days since last match	6	5
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.4	0.4
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.8	2.4
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.2	14.2
Shots on target, last 5	3.6	4.0
Shots per possession	0.218	0.274
On-target shots per possession	0.075	0.088
Inside-box shots per possession	0.137	0.184
Share of shots from inside the box	60.2%	64.6%
Expected goals, last 5	0.71	0.73
Possession, last 5	47.6%	46.4%
Corners, last 5	4.8	5.0
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.221	0.256
On-target allowed per possession	0.067	0.098
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.125	0.179
Opponents' inside-box share	56.3%	69.0%
Save rate	69.8%	62.4%
Saves, last 5	2.8	2.4
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.56	2.96
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	413	370
Fouls, last 5	11.6	13.0
Cards, last 5	3.8	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	16
Home side won	5
Drawn	7
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	24
Goals, away side	23

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 48.6% · Draw 26.9% · Away 24.5% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Telstar v Feyenoord

eredivisie · 18:00 UK

Finished 3–4. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	14	1
Position last season	14	2
Points this season	6	20
Goal difference this season	-7	+20
Elo rating going in	1,530	1,757
Matches on record, all seasons	48	547
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	13
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	3.8
Goals conceded, last 5	1.2	0.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	3.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.5	0.8
Clean sheets, last 10	2	5
Failed to score, last 10	4	0
Wins in a row	0	4
Unbeaten run	1	17
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	6	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.6	2.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	2.2	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.8	21.6
Shots on target, last 5	2.2	9.0
Shots per possession	0.224	0.379
On-target shots per possession	0.065	0.144
Inside-box shots per possession	0.157	0.257
Share of shots from inside the box	72.9%	67.9%
Expected goals, last 5	2.91	2.31
Possession, last 5	44.4%	53.8%
Corners, last 5	4.4	6.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.269	0.210
On-target allowed per possession	0.109	0.058
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.179	0.122
Opponents' inside-box share	69.2%	55.4%
Save rate	72.7%	68.9%
Saves, last 5	4.2	1.6
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.40	0.65
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	93.0%
Passes, last 5	400	504
Fouls, last 5	9.2	10.2
Cards, last 5	2.0	1.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	2
Home side won	0
Drawn	0
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	2
Goals, away side	4

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 11.7% · Draw 17.3% · Away 71.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.

AS Roma v Genoa

serie-a · 18:45 UK

Finished 2–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	2	17
Position last season	3	16
Points this season	14	4
Goal difference this season	+11	-6
Elo rating going in	1,775	1,550
Matches on record, all seasons	614	576
Recent form
Points, last 5	11	4
Goals scored, last 5	2.0	1.0
Goals conceded, last 5	0.6	1.8
Goals scored, last 10	2.5	0.6
Goals conceded, last 10	0.5	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	7	2
Failed to score, last 10	1	5
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	13	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	6	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	2.0
Scored away, last 5 there	2.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	0.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	19.0	11.6
Shots on target, last 5	5.8	3.4
Shots per possession	0.310	0.215
On-target shots per possession	0.112	0.058
Inside-box shots per possession	0.223	0.139
Share of shots from inside the box	71.9%	63.8%
Expected goals, last 5	2.02	1.15
Possession, last 5	52.0%	46.2%
Corners, last 5	5.8	4.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.212	0.263
On-target allowed per possession	0.070	0.083
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.120	0.162
Opponents' inside-box share	58.1%	58.8%
Save rate	75.4%	71.6%
Saves, last 5	2.6	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.34	1.22
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.7%	78.3%
Passes, last 5	508	383
Fouls, last 5	11.8	9.8
Cards, last 5	2.0	3.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	30
Home side won	20
Drawn	5
Away side won	5
Goals, home side	59
Goals, away side	34

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 61.4% · Draw 22.9% · Away 15.7% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Estac Troyes v Lens

ligue-1 · 18:45 UK

Finished 1–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	17	7
Position last season	—	2
Points this season	4	7
Goal difference this season	-9	+1
Elo rating going in	1,391	1,669
Matches on record, all seasons	196	298
Recent form
Points, last 5	3	4
Goals scored, last 5	0.8	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	2.6	1.6
Goals scored, last 10	0.7	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	2.1	1.3
Clean sheets, last 10	1	2
Failed to score, last 10	5	2
Wins in a row	0	1
Unbeaten run	0	1
Losses in a row	4	0
Days since last match	6	8
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	0.8	1.6
Conceded at home, last 5 there	2.0	1.2
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	16.0	15.4
Shots on target, last 5	3.0	6.0
Shots per possession	0.286	0.327
On-target shots per possession	0.066	0.128
Inside-box shots per possession	0.197	0.230
Share of shots from inside the box	68.4%	70.0%
Expected goals, last 5	1.35	2.13
Possession, last 5	38.2%	49.6%
Corners, last 5	7.6	7.6
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.244	0.244
On-target allowed per possession	0.090	0.084
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.169	0.168
Opponents' inside-box share	70.3%	69.5%
Save rate	62.2%	70.4%
Saves, last 5	3.0	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.23	1.35
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	74.0%	85.0%
Passes, last 5	339	481
Fouls, last 5	13.2	12.8
Cards, last 5	1.4	2.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	0
Drawn	1
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	2
Goals, away side	9

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 24.1% · Draw 24.0% · Away 51.9% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Lille v Stade Brestois 29

ligue-1 · 18:45 UK

Finished 1–1. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	1	7
Position last season	3	12
Points this season	13	8
Goal difference this season	+5	+3
Elo rating going in	1,696	1,560
Matches on record, all seasons	592	364
Recent form
Points, last 5	10	7
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	0.8	1.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.2	1.4
Goals conceded, last 10	0.7	1.7
Clean sheets, last 10	6	0
Failed to score, last 10	1	3
Wins in a row	1	1
Unbeaten run	1	1
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	1.2	1.8
Conceded at home, last 5 there	1.0	1.4
Scored away, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	—	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.6	17.4
Shots on target, last 5	5.0	6.2
Shots per possession	0.231	0.314
On-target shots per possession	0.102	0.104
Inside-box shots per possession	0.155	0.200
Share of shots from inside the box	67.4%	62.8%
Expected goals, last 5	1.18	3.32
Possession, last 5	48.6%	47.6%
Corners, last 5	3.0	4.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.243	0.232
On-target allowed per possession	0.075	0.086
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.162	0.139
Opponents' inside-box share	71.9%	60.6%
Save rate	75.3%	64.7%
Saves, last 5	3.4	2.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.33	1.29
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.0%	82.0%
Passes, last 5	467	429
Fouls, last 5	11.4	13.6
Cards, last 5	1.2	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	19
Home side won	9
Drawn	6
Away side won	4
Goals, home side	26
Goals, away side	21

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 47.6% · Draw 26.1% · Away 26.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Dundee v Rangers

scottish-prem · 19:00 UK

Finished 2–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	4	1
Position last season	8	3
Points this season	13	19
Goal difference this season	+3	+6
Elo rating going in	1,503	1,736
Matches on record, all seasons	392	450
Recent form
Points, last 5	7	15
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	1.6
Goals conceded, last 5	1.4	0.4
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.3	0.9
Clean sheets, last 10	2	4
Failed to score, last 10	1	0
Wins in a row	2	6
Unbeaten run	2	6
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	7	7
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.4
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.2	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.4	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	11.6	18.8
Shots on target, last 5	4.4	6.2
Shots per possession	0.282	0.356
On-target shots per possession	0.102	0.121
Inside-box shots per possession	0.204	0.240
Share of shots from inside the box	73.0%	66.1%
Expected goals, last 5	1.10	1.50
Possession, last 5	43.4%	51.4%
Corners, last 5	5.2	7.4
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.309	0.228
On-target allowed per possession	0.085	0.075
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.196	0.173
Opponents' inside-box share	63.5%	75.6%
Save rate	73.1%	73.4%
Saves, last 5	4.2	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	2.17	1.21
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	81.0%	—
Passes, last 5	352	438
Fouls, last 5	12.4	14.2
Cards, last 5	1.2	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	22
Home side won	2
Drawn	4
Away side won	16
Goals, home side	16
Goals, away side	54

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 12.3% · Draw 18.4% · Away 69.2% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Las Palmas v Castellón

laliga-2 · 19:00 UK

Finished 0–3. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	14	2
Position last season	5	6
Points this season	11	20
Goal difference this season	-3	+11
Elo rating going in	1,505	1,533
Matches on record, all seasons	455	137
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	10
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	2.0
Goals conceded, last 5	2.0	0.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.4	1.7
Goals conceded, last 10	1.7	0.7
Clean sheets, last 10	3	5
Failed to score, last 10	1	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	0	0
Losses in a row	1	1
Days since last match	6	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	1.4
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.2	0.6
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	12.0	13.8
Shots on target, last 5	3.8	5.0
Shots per possession	0.191	0.230
On-target shots per possession	0.067	0.082
Inside-box shots per possession	0.119	0.145
Share of shots from inside the box	63.1%	63.5%
Expected goals, last 5	0.35	0.72
Possession, last 5	51.0%	62.0%
Corners, last 5	4.8	4.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.288	0.289
On-target allowed per possession	0.105	0.093
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.198	0.211
Opponents' inside-box share	67.7%	72.1%
Save rate	64.2%	72.6%
Saves, last 5	2.8	4.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	0.86	2.63
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	—
Passes, last 5	442	559
Fouls, last 5	13.0	10.4
Cards, last 5	3.0	1.4
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	4
Home side won	1
Drawn	1
Away side won	2
Goals, home side	3
Goals, away side	7

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 27.3% · Draw 25.6% · Away 47.1% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Sparta Rotterdam v Willem II

eredivisie · 19:00 UK

Finished 3–2. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	12	18
Position last season	10	—
Points this season	6	2
Goal difference this season	-7	-16
Elo rating going in	1,518	1,379
Matches on record, all seasons	312	380
Recent form
Points, last 5	2	1
Goals scored, last 5	1.4	0.6
Goals conceded, last 5	3.0	2.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.5	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	2.7	2.8
Clean sheets, last 10	0	0
Failed to score, last 10	3	2
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	1	0
Losses in a row	0	3
Days since last match	7	6
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	—
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	—
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	1.2
Conceded away, last 5 there	2.8	3.0
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	14.0	11.6
Shots on target, last 5	4.8	2.6
Shots per possession	0.314	0.283
On-target shots per possession	0.108	0.070
Inside-box shots per possession	0.216	0.192
Share of shots from inside the box	67.4%	68.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.49	0.66
Possession, last 5	44.2%	42.0%
Corners, last 5	6.6	3.8
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.339	0.319
On-target allowed per possession	0.115	0.108
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.216	0.221
Opponents' inside-box share	62.3%	68.7%
Save rate	63.5%	60.3%
Saves, last 5	4.4	3.8
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.25	1.38
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	84.0%	—
Passes, last 5	381	394
Fouls, last 5	8.2	8.6
Cards, last 5	1.4	1.2
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	11
Home side won	6
Drawn	2
Away side won	3
Goals, home side	20
Goals, away side	15

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 58.2% · Draw 21.4% · Away 20.4% — pinnacle, pre_match.

Valencia v Athletic Club

la-liga · 19:00 UK

Finished 0–0. Everything below is what was known that morning, before the match.

What the model saw	Home	Away
Where they stand
League position	19	8
Position last season	9	12
Points this season	5	8
Goal difference this season	-9	+1
Elo rating going in	1,591	1,619
Matches on record, all seasons	616	614
Recent form
Points, last 5	4	8
Goals scored, last 5	1.0	1.2
Goals conceded, last 5	2.2	0.6
Goals scored, last 10	1.3	1.0
Goals conceded, last 10	1.9	1.4
Clean sheets, last 10	2	3
Failed to score, last 10	4	4
Wins in a row	0	0
Unbeaten run	1	4
Losses in a row	0	0
Days since last match	6	28
Home and away separately
Scored at home, last 5 there	—	1.2
Conceded at home, last 5 there	—	1.0
Scored away, last 5 there	1.6	—
Conceded away, last 5 there	1.8	—
Attack — how chances are created
Shots, last 5	9.6	15.0
Shots on target, last 5	2.4	4.0
Shots per possession	0.283	0.303
On-target shots per possession	0.084	0.093
Inside-box shots per possession	0.177	0.204
Share of shots from inside the box	61.6%	66.6%
Expected goals, last 5	1.71	1.43
Possession, last 5	47.4%	49.6%
Corners, last 5	4.0	5.2
Defence — what they allow
Shots allowed per possession	0.271	0.165
On-target allowed per possession	0.093	0.070
Inside-box allowed per possession	0.166	0.102
Opponents' inside-box share	61.4%	53.2%
Save rate	68.6%	67.8%
Saves, last 5	4.6	3.0
Expected goals conceded, last 5	1.35	2.23
On the ball and discipline
Pass accuracy	—	79.5%
Passes, last 5	411	473
Fouls, last 5	10.4	11.2
Cards, last 5	2.4	2.0
Previous meetings
Meetings on record	32
Home side won	11
Drawn	12
Away side won	9
Goals, home side	36
Goals, away side	33

The bookmakers' price is shown for comparison and is not something the model sees. It is deliberately kept out of training so "does the model beat the market" stays an answerable question. Home 30.1% · Draw 28.9% · Away 41.0% — pinnacle, pre_match.